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Joint Modeling of Birth Outcomes Using a Copula Distributional Regression Approach 基于Copula分布回归方法的生育结果联合建模。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70067
Giampiero Marra, Rosalba Radice

Low birth weight and preterm birth are key indicators of neonatal health, influencing both immediate and long-term infant outcomes. While low birth weight may reflect fetal growth restrictions, preterm birth captures disruptions in gestational development. Ignoring the potential interdependence between these variables may lead to an incomplete understanding of their shared determinants and underlying dynamics. To address this, a copula distributional regression framework is adopted to jointly model both indicators as flexible functions of maternal characteristics and geographic effects. Applied to female birth data from North Carolina, the methodology identifies shared factors of low birth weight and preterm birth, and reveals how maternal health, socioeconomic conditions and geographic disparities shape neonatal risk. The joint modeling approach provides a more nuanced understanding of these birth metrics, offering insights that can inform targeted interventions, prenatal care strategies and public health planning.

低出生体重和早产是新生儿健康的关键指标,对婴儿的近期和长期结局都有影响。虽然低出生体重可能反映胎儿生长受限,但早产反映了妊娠发育的中断。忽视这些变量之间潜在的相互依存关系可能导致对其共同决定因素和潜在动态的不完全理解。为了解决这一问题,采用了一个copula分布回归框架,将这两个指标作为母体特征和地理效应的灵活函数共同建模。将该方法应用于北卡罗来纳州的女性出生数据,确定了低出生体重和早产的共同因素,并揭示了孕产妇健康、社会经济条件和地理差异如何影响新生儿风险。联合建模方法提供了对这些出生指标的更细致的理解,提供了可以为有针对性的干预措施、产前护理策略和公共卫生规划提供信息的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Neglected Tropical Diseases, Health, and Education: Evidence From China 被忽视的热带病、健康和教育:来自中国的证据。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70065
Fenghang Li, Kangni Zeng, Min Guo, Jingwei Huang

While extensive research has examined the impacts of fatal infectious diseases, relatively little attention has been devoted to neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), which are typically non-fatal but impose significant health, social, and economic burdens. This study investigates the effects of a comprehensive schistosomiasis prevention and control policy implemented in China in 2006 on disease prevalence, as well as on the health and educational outcomes of compulsory education age children who had in-utero exposure to the policy. Using the policy as a quasi-experiment, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) identification strategy. We find that the policy reduced schistosomiasis prevalence and led to improvements in both health and educational outcomes among children with in-utero exposure. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that these effects are primarily driven by boys. The exploration of potential mechanisms indicates the policy improved family income and educational expenditure. The results of this study provide empirical support for the effectiveness of a comprehensive prevention and control policy targeting schistosomiasis and possibly many other NTDs.

虽然对致命传染病的影响进行了广泛的研究,但对被忽视的热带病(NTDs)的关注相对较少,这些疾病通常不致命,但会造成重大的健康、社会和经济负担。本研究调查了2006年中国实施的血吸虫病综合防治政策对血吸虫病患病率的影响,以及对宫内接触该政策的义务教育适龄儿童的健康和教育结果的影响。将该策略作为准实验,我们采用差分中差分(DID)识别策略。我们发现,该政策降低了血吸虫病的患病率,并改善了子宫内接触过血吸虫的儿童的健康和教育成果。异质性分析显示,这些影响主要是由男孩造成的。潜在机制的探索表明,政策改善了家庭收入和教育支出。本研究结果为针对血吸虫病和许多其他被忽视热带病的综合防控政策的有效性提供了实证支持。
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引用次数: 0
Not a Sip: Effects of Zero Tolerance Laws on Road Traffic Fatalities 不喝一口:零容忍法律对道路交通死亡的影响。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70056
Andres Ramasco

A substantial proportion of alcohol related fatalities and their consequences are preventable, prompting policymakers to implement measures aimed at reducing these deaths. I exploit time and geographic variation in the adoption of zero-tolerance laws in a difference-in-differences design to study the impact of these regulations on traffic-related incidents. Using county-level data, I find no sizable reductions in fatalities and an increase in injury counts after the adoption of such laws. I do not find significant changes in several measures of alcohol consumption, consistent with the lack of reduction in driving fatalities.

很大一部分与酒精有关的死亡及其后果是可以预防的,这促使决策者采取旨在减少这些死亡的措施。我利用时间和地域的差异,采用差异中的差异设计来研究这些法规对交通相关事件的影响。通过使用县级数据,我发现在采用这些法律后,死亡人数并没有大幅减少,受伤人数也没有大幅增加。我没有发现酒精消费量的几项指标有显著变化,这与驾驶死亡人数没有减少是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
Scale, Skill-Mix, and Access Implications of the Production of Appointments by Primary Care Practices in England 规模,技能组合和访问的影响生产预约的初级保健实践在英格兰。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70064
Tianchang Zhao, Rachel Meacock, Matt Sutton

Primary medical care has traditionally been provided by small organisations. Recent policy developments in many countries have encouraged larger practices in the hope of benefiting from increasing returns to scale, but there is little research evidence to support this. Using monthly data from 6149 primary care practices in England between August 2022 and July 2024, we applied a Generalized Linear Model with a logarithmic link and Poisson distribution to examine the relationship between staffing levels and appointment volumes. At the median level of administrative staffing, the estimated marginal productivity of doctors and other clinical staff on total appointments are 223 and 152 per month, respectively. The marginal effects of all types of staff on appointment volumes increase with staffing levels. We plot the isoquant and isocost curves at the median level of production and examine the implications of our findings for skill-mix and patient access. The current ratios of doctors to other clinical staff and nurses to Direct Patient Care (DPC) staff are lower than cost optimal, though this is less of an issue for larger practices who benefit more from DPC roles. Additional clinical staff improve patient access more when employed in larger practices.

初级医疗保健传统上由小型组织提供。许多国家最近的政策发展鼓励了更大规模的做法,希望从规模回报的增加中获益,但几乎没有研究证据支持这一点。利用2022年8月至2024年7月期间英国6149个初级保健实践的月度数据,我们应用了一个具有对数链接和泊松分布的广义线性模型来检验人员配备水平与预约量之间的关系。按行政人员的中位数计算,医生和其他临床工作人员按总预约计算的边际生产力估计分别为每月223和152。各类工作人员对任用人数的边际影响随着员额编制的增加而增加。我们绘制了生产中位数水平的等量曲线和等成本曲线,并检查了我们的发现对技能组合和患者获取的影响。目前医生与其他临床人员的比例以及护士与直接患者护理(DPC)人员的比例低于成本最优,尽管对于从DPC角色中获益更多的大型实践来说,这不是一个问题。在大型诊所中雇用额外的临床工作人员,可以更有效地改善患者的可及性。
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引用次数: 0
Maternity Ward Closures and Infant Health Outcomes, Maternal Health Outcomes, and Birth Procedures 产科病房关闭与婴儿健康结果、产妇健康结果和分娩程序。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70053
Astrid de Linde, Jostein Grytten, Irene Skau, Jonas Minet Kinge

We analyze the short- and long-term impacts of maternity ward closures using registry data on every delivery in Norway from 1981 through 2019. Among those directly experiencing a closure, we find a small decline in 5-minute Apgar score and increased probability of birth outside institution. Since this drop in Apgar is not reflected across the other indicators, we hypothesize it reflects different institutional scoring standards as opposed to a health effect. For long-term outcomes, we find treatment as an infant increases the likelihood of beginning high school by 1 percentage point, but has no effect on graduating. Furthermore, for infants assigned female at birth, we find early-life treatment does not change the probability of giving birth as an adult or experiencing negative health conditions during pregnancy. We hypothesize robust prenatal care and health and social services may mitigate the impact of closures and thus account for a limited treatment effect.

我们使用1981年至2019年挪威每次分娩的登记数据分析了产科病房关闭的短期和长期影响。在那些直接经历关闭的人中,我们发现5分钟Apgar评分略有下降,并且在机构外分娩的可能性增加。由于阿普加的下降没有反映在其他指标上,我们假设它反映了不同的机构评分标准,而不是健康影响。就长期结果而言,我们发现在婴儿时期接受治疗使开始上高中的可能性提高了1个百分点,但对毕业没有影响。此外,对于出生时被指定为女性的婴儿,我们发现生命早期治疗不会改变成年后分娩或在怀孕期间经历负面健康状况的可能性。我们假设强有力的产前护理和健康和社会服务可以减轻关闭的影响,从而解释有限的治疗效果。
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引用次数: 0
Income–Well-Being Gradient in Sickness and Health 疾病和健康的收入-福利梯度。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70063
Ohto Kanninen, Petri Böckerman, Ilpo Suoniemi

We propose a method for studying the value of insurance. For this purpose, we analyze the well-being of the same individuals, comparing sick and healthy years, using German panel survey data on life satisfaction. We impose structure on the income–well-being gradient by fitting a flexible utility function to the data, focusing on the differences in marginal utility in the sick and the healthy states. Notably, our empirical specification allows for a “fixed cost of sickness.” We find a higher marginal utility of income in the sick state. We use our estimates to gauge the value of sickness insurance for Baily-Chetty–type optimal policy calculations.

本文提出了一种研究保险价值的方法。为此,我们分析了同一个人的幸福感,比较了患病和健康年份,使用了德国生活满意度面板调查数据。我们通过对数据拟合灵活的效用函数,将结构强加于收入-福祉梯度上,重点关注患病和健康状态下边际效用的差异。值得注意的是,我们的经验规范允许“固定疾病成本”。我们发现,在患病状态下,收入的边际效用更高。我们使用我们的估计来衡量疾病保险的价值为贝利-切蒂型最优政策计算。
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引用次数: 0
Pediatric Drug Adherence and Parental Attention: Evidence From Comprehensive Claims Data 儿童药物依从性和父母关注:来自综合索赔数据的证据。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70062
Josh Feng, Matthew J. Higgins, Elena Patel

Using comprehensive U.S. drug claims data, we show that adherence to asthma control medication declined during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that young children exhibited a 40 percent decrease in adherence by the end of 2020. The responses were less negative for older children and positive for adults. We provide additional evidence that parental attention played a role in driving this decrease, based on heterogeneity by pre-pandemic mail order usage and number of parental scripts. Policy implications for improving pediatric adherence are discussed.

利用全面的美国药物索赔数据,我们发现在COVID-19大流行期间,哮喘控制药物的依从性有所下降。我们发现,到2020年底,幼儿的依从性下降了40%。年龄较大的儿童的反应不那么消极,而成年人的反应则是积极的。我们提供了额外的证据,表明基于流行病前邮购使用和父母脚本数量的异质性,父母的关注在推动这种下降中发挥了作用。讨论了提高儿童依从性的政策含义。
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引用次数: 0
Bivariate Copula-Based Regression for Joint Modeling of Healthcare Visits 基于二元copula的医疗保健就诊联合建模。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70059
Giampiero Marra, Rosalba Radice

Doctor and non-doctor visit frequencies are key indicators of healthcare access, utilization and individual health-seeking behavior. While doctor visits reflect engagement with formal medical services, non-doctor visits, such as to nurses, physiotherapists or alternative providers, offer insights into patient preferences and system adaptability. Modeling these outcomes separately can hide relevant interdependencies and hence lead to incomplete conclusions. To address this, we employ a copula additive distributional regression framework to jointly model doctor and non-doctor visits as flexible functions of demographic, socioeconomic and health-related covariates. The estimation approach allows all the distributional parameters, including location, scale and the dependence structure, to vary with covariates via additive predictors. Application of the model to data from the 2012 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey reveals key determinants of physician and non-physician visits, such as age, income and health status. Importantly, the method allows for the modeling of shared unobserved heterogeneity and effectively captures how changes in one type of utilization influence the other, thereby yielding a deeper understanding of healthcare behavior.

医生和非医生就诊频率是医疗服务可及性、利用度和个体求医行为的关键指标。虽然看医生反映了对正规医疗服务的参与,但非看医生,如看护士、物理治疗师或其他提供者,提供了对患者偏好和系统适应性的见解。对这些结果分别建模可能会隐藏相关的相互依赖性,从而导致不完整的结论。为了解决这个问题,我们采用了一个copula加性分布回归框架,将医生和非医生就诊作为人口统计、社会经济和健康相关协变量的灵活函数共同建模。该估计方法允许所有分布参数,包括位置、规模和依赖结构,通过加性预测因子随协变量而变化。将该模型应用于2012年医疗支出小组调查的数据,揭示了医生和非医生就诊的关键决定因素,如年龄、收入和健康状况。重要的是,该方法允许对共享的未观察到的异质性进行建模,并有效捕获一种利用类型的变化如何影响另一种利用类型,从而对医疗保健行为产生更深入的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Vaccine Incentives Harm Intrinsic Motivation: Evidence From a Priming Experiment 疫苗激励损害内在动机:来自启动实验的证据。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70061
Johnny Huynh, Corey Jacinto, James Huynh

Monetary incentives for vaccination may undermine intrinsic motivation, but evidence on this effect remains scarce. We conducted an experiment among 513 vaccine-hesitant adults to test whether priming individuals with a monetary incentive reduces their willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19. Our findings show that one in seven were willing to vaccinate without an incentive but declined the vaccine when asked to consider a payment. Additionally, priming participants lowered their perceptions of vaccine safety by 9 pp and prosocial attitudes toward vaccination by 10 pp. These negative effects were concentrated among men, racial and ethnic minorities, and participants with lower preexisting trust in the vaccine. Our results highlight an unintended consequence of vaccine incentives.

疫苗接种的金钱激励可能会破坏内在动机,但关于这种影响的证据仍然很少。我们在513名对接种疫苗犹豫不决的成年人中进行了一项实验,以测试用金钱激励个人是否会降低他们接种COVID-19疫苗的意愿。我们的研究结果表明,七分之一的人愿意在没有激励的情况下接种疫苗,但在被要求考虑付款时拒绝接种疫苗。此外,启动参与者对疫苗安全性的看法降低了9个百分点,对疫苗的亲社会态度降低了10个百分点。这些负面影响主要集中在男性、种族和少数民族以及对疫苗信任度较低的参与者中。我们的研究结果强调了疫苗激励的一个意想不到的后果。
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引用次数: 0
Insurance Coverage for Chronic Diseases and Healthcare of Low-Income People: Evidence From Chinese Administrative Data 低收入人群慢性病与医疗保险覆盖:来自中国行政数据的证据。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1002/hec.70050
Xinxin Chen, Jin Feng, Zhen Wang, Dandan Yu

Patient cost-sharing can lead to delays in necessary care, especially among low-income populations. In this study, we examine the impact of health insurance coverage for chronic disease treatments in outpatient care, using recent administrative insurance claims dataset from a low-income population in an underdeveloped city in China. Employing a propensity score matching and difference-in-differences approach, we find that outpatient coverage for certain chronic diseases increased outpatient utilization and expenses among patients with these conditions. Interestingly, these patients also increased their use of inpatient services, despite no changes in the cost-sharing for inpatient care. Our findings suggest the presence of delayed care, where outpatient visits helped patients recognize the severity of their diseases and increased the demand for inpatient care. These results have important implications for the implementation of universal health coverage and the dynamics of healthcare costs in low- and middle-income countries.

患者费用分摊可能导致必要护理的延误,特别是在低收入人群中。在这项研究中,我们利用中国一个欠发达城市低收入人群的行政保险索赔数据,研究了医疗保险覆盖对门诊慢性病治疗的影响。采用倾向得分匹配和差异中的差异方法,我们发现某些慢性病的门诊覆盖增加了这些疾病患者的门诊利用率和费用。有趣的是,这些患者也增加了对住院服务的使用,尽管住院护理的费用分担没有变化。我们的研究结果表明,延迟护理的存在,门诊就诊帮助患者认识到他们的疾病的严重程度,并增加了住院治疗的需求。这些结果对实施全民健康覆盖和低收入和中等收入国家的医疗费用动态具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Health economics
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