Low-fertility rate has been a common problem in many industrialized countries. To reverse the declining trend of new births, Chinese government gradually lifted its restrictions on the number of births per family, allowing for a household to have no more than two children. Little is known about the additional births or population increase contributed by the gradual relaxation of birth restrictions. To fill this gap, this quasi-experimental design study including data from 124 regions used the synthetic control method and controlled interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the differences in birth rates and rates of natural population increase between China and its synthetic control following implementation of the two-child policy from 2011 to 2020. A total of 123 regions were included in the control pool. Data collected during 1990-2010 were used to identify the synthetic China for each study outcome. The mean rate differences of birth rates and rates of natural increase between China and synthetic China after two-child policy implementation were 1.16 per 1000 population and 1.02 per 1000, respectively. These rate differences were distinguished from variation due to chance (one-sided pseudo-P-values: P for birth rates = 0.047, P for rates of natural increase = 0.020). However, there were statistically significant annual reductions in the pre-post trend of birth rates and rates of natural increase compared with those of controls of <0.340 per 1000 population per year [P = 0.007, 95% CI = (-0.584, -0.096)] and <0.274 per 1000 per year [P = 0.028, 95% CI = (-0.518, -0.031)]. The results suggested that lifting birth restrictions had a short-term effect on the increase in birth rates and rates of natural population increase. However, birth policy with lifting birth restrictions alone may not have sustained impact on population growth in the long run.
Most policy analysis methods and approaches are applied retrospectively. As a result, there have been calls for more documentation of the political-economy factors central to health care reforms in real-time. We sought to highlight the methods and previous applications of prospective policy analysis (PPA) in the literature to document purposeful use of PPA and reflect on opportunities and drawbacks. We used a critical interpretive synthesis (CIS) approach as our initial scoping revealed that PPA is inconsistently defined in the literature. While we found several examples of PPA, all were researcher-led, most were published recently and few described mechanisms for engagement in the policy process. In addition, methods used were often summarily described and reported on relatively short prospective time horizons. Most of the studies stemmed from high-income countries and, across our sample, did not always clearly outline the rationale for a PPA and how this analysis was conceptualized. That only about one-fifth of the articles explicitly defined PPA underscores the fact that researchers and practitioners conducting PPA should better document their intent and reflect on key elements essential for PPA. Despite a wide recognition that policy processes are dynamic and ideally require multifaceted and longitudinal examination, the PPA approach is not currently frequently documented in the literature. However, the few articles reported in this paper might overestimate gaps in PPA applications. More likely, researchers are embedded in policy processes prospectively but do not necessarily write their articles from that perspective, and analyses led by non-academics might not make their way into the published literature. Future research should feature examples of testing and refining the proposed framework, as well as designing and reporting on PPA. Even when policy-maker engagement might not be feasible, real-time policy monitoring might have value in and of itself.
Effective citizen engagement is crucial for the success of social health insurance, yet little is known about the mechanisms used to involve citizens in low- and middle-income countries. This paper explores citizen engagement efforts by the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) and their impact on health insurance coverage within rural informal worker households in western Kenya. Our study employed a mixed methods design, including a cross-sectional household survey (n = 1773), in-depth household interviews (n = 36), six focus group discussions with community stakeholders and key informant interviews (n = 11) with policymakers. The findings reveal that NHIF is widely recognized, but knowledge of its services, feedback mechanisms and accountability systems is limited. NHIF enrolment among respondents is low (11%). The majority (63%) are aware of NHIF, but only 32% know about the benefit package. There was higher awareness of the benefit package (60%) among those with NHIF compared to those without (28%). Satisfaction with the NHIF benefit package was expressed by only 48% of the insured. Nearly all respondents (93%) are unaware of mechanisms to provide feedback or raise complaints with NHIF. Of those who are aware, the majority (57%) mention visiting NHIF offices for assistance. Most respondents (97%) lack awareness of NHIF's performance reporting mechanisms and express a desire to learn. Negative media reports about NHIF's performance erode trust, contributing to low enrolment and member attrition. Our study underscores the urgency of prioritizing citizen engagement to address low enrolment and attrition rates. We recommend evaluating current citizen engagement procedures to enhance citizen accountability and incorporate their voices. Equally important is the need to build the capacity of health facility staff handling NHIF clients in providing information and addressing complaints. Transparency and information accessibility, including the sharing of performance reports, will foster trust in the insurer. Lastly, standardizing messaging and translations for diverse audiences, particularly rural informal workers, is crucial.
In many countries, healthcare systems suffer from fragmentation between hospitals and primary care. In response, many governments institutionalized healthcare networks (HN) to facilitate integration and efficient healthcare delivery. Despite potential benefits, the implementation of HN is often challenged by inefficient collaborative dynamics that result in delayed decision-making, lack of strategic alignment and lack of reciprocal trust between network members. Yet, limited attention has been paid to the collective dynamics, challenges and enablers for effective inter-organizational collaborations. To consider these issues, we carried out a scoping review to identify the underlying processes for effective inter-organizational collaboration and the contextual conditions within which these processes are triggered. Following appropriate methodological guidance for scoping reviews, we searched four databases [PubMed (n = 114), Web of Science (n = 171), Google Scholar (n = 153) and Scopus (n = 52)] and used snowballing (n = 22). A total of 37 papers addressing HN including hospitals were included. We used a framework synthesis informed by the collaborative governance framework to guide data extraction and analysis, while being sensitive to emergent themes. Our review showed the prominence of balancing between top-down and bottom-up decision-making (e.g. strategic vs steering committees), formal procedural arrangements and strategic governing bodies in stimulating participative decision-making, collaboration and sense of ownership. In a highly institutionalized context, the inter-organizational partnership is facilitated by pre-existing legal frameworks. HN are suitable for tackling wicked healthcare issues by mutualizing resources, staff pooling and improved coordination. Overall performance depends on the capacity of partners for joint action, principled engagement and a closeness culture, trust relationships, shared commitment, distributed leadership, power sharing and interoperability of information systems To promote the effectiveness of HN, more bottom-up participative decision-making, formalization of governance arrangement and building trust relationships are needed. Yet, there is still inconsistent evidence on the effectiveness of HN in improving health outcomes and quality of care.
HIV status awareness is critical for ending the HIV epidemic but remains low in high-HIV-risk and hard-to-reach sub-populations. Targeted, efficient interventions are needed to improve HIV test-uptake. We examined the incremental cost-effectiveness of offering the choice of self-administered oral HIV-testing (HIVST-Choice) compared with provider-administered testing only [standard-of-care (SOC)] among long-distance truck drivers. Effectiveness data came from a randomized-controlled trial conducted at two roadside wellness clinics in Kenya (HIVST-Choice arm, n = 150; SOC arm, n = 155). Economic cost data came from the literature, reflected a societal perspective and were reported in 2020 international dollars (I$), a hypothetical currency with equivalent purchasing power as the US dollar. Generalized Poisson and linear gamma regression models were used to estimate effectiveness and incremental costs, respectively; incremental effectiveness was reported as the number of long-distance truck drivers needing to receive HIVST-Choice for an additional HIV test-uptake. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of HIVST-Choice compared with SOC and estimated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using non-parametric bootstrapping. Uncertainty was assessed using deterministic sensitivity analysis and the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. HIV test-uptake was 23% more likely for HIVST-Choice, with six individuals needing to be offered HIVST-Choice for an additional HIV test-uptake. The mean per-patient cost was nearly 4-fold higher in HIVST-Choice (I$39.28) versus SOC (I$10.80), with an ICER of I$174.51, 95% CI [165.72, 194.59] for each additional test-uptake. HIV self-test kit and cell phone service costs were the main drivers of the ICER, although findings were robust even at highest possible costs. The probability of cost-effectiveness approached 1 at a willingness-to-pay of I$200 for each additional HIV test-uptake. HIVST-Choice improves HIV-test-uptake among truck drivers at low willingness-to-pay thresholds, suggesting that HIV self-testing is an efficient use of resources. Policies supporting HIV self-testing in similar high risk, hard-to-reach sub-populations may expedite achievement of international targets.
Partnership between early childhood development interventions and primary health care services can help catalyse health care uptake by socially vulnerable families. This study aimed to assess the real-life effects of a large-scale home visiting programme [Primeira Infância Melhor (PIM)] in Brazil on the use of preventive (prenatal visits, well child visits, dentist visits and vaccination) and recovery (emergency room visits and hospitalization) health services. A quasi-experiment nested in a population-based birth cohort study was conducted. The intervention group was firstly defined as all children enrolled in PIM up to age 6 months, and afterwards stratified between those enrolled during pregnancy or after birth up to 6 months. Children receiving PIM were matched with controls on propensity scores based on 27 confounders to estimate effects on health service use from prenatal to age 2 years. Double adjustment was applied in outcome Quasi-Poisson regressions. No evidence was found for effects of PIM starting anytime up to 6 months (262 pairs), or for the children enrolled only after birth (133 pairs), on outcomes occurring after age 6 months. When the programme started during pregnancy (129 pairs), there was a 13% higher prevalence of adequate prenatal visits (prevalence ratio = 1.13; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.27), but no effect on use of any other health service. Sensitivity analyses suggested longer participation in the programme with reduced visitor turnover might improve its impact on prenatal visits. Integration between PIM and primary health care was not adequate to affect overall patterns of contacts with health services. Nevertheless, prenatal home visits showed potential to increase health service contact during a sensitive period of development, indicating the need to start such programmes before birth, when there is more time for maternal care, and family engagement in a network of services is facilitated.