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Supranational Agents as De-Commitment Devices: The ECB During the Eurozone Crisis 超国家代理作为解除承诺的工具:欧元区危机期间的欧洲央行
Pub Date : 2020-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3557195
Philipp Genschel, Tobias Tesche
We argue that the independent agency of EU institutions can serve not only to tie the member states to previous policy commitments, as argued in the extant literature, but also to untie member states from commitments that have become outdated and harmful. The European Central Bank saved the Euro in 2012 not by enforcing the monetary financing prohibition or the no-bail-out clause of the Treaty more strictly but by flouting them. We develop our de-commitment account of supranational agency theoretically, show its workings empirically by a case study of the Eurozone crisis, and discuss its scope conditions. We surmise that supranational de-commitment is a common feature of EU politics.
我们认为,欧盟机构的独立机构不仅可以将成员国与现有文献中所述的先前的政策承诺联系起来,而且还可以将成员国从过时和有害的承诺中解脱出来。欧洲央行(ecb)在2012年拯救了欧元,不是通过更严格地执行货币融资禁令或条约中的不纾困条款,而是通过蔑视它们。我们从理论上发展了超国家机构的去承诺账户,通过对欧元区危机的案例研究实证地展示了其运作方式,并讨论了其范围条件。我们推测,超国家的不承诺是欧盟政治的一个共同特征。
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引用次数: 1
Neglected Risk: Evidence from the Eurozone Sovereign Credit Market 被忽视的风险:来自欧元区主权信用市场的证据
Pub Date : 2020-02-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3533715
S. Lotfi, Andreas Milidonis, S. Zenios
We find evidence of neglected risk during sovereign debt expansions (DE), by analyzing the sovereign credit market for both crisis and noncrisis Eurozone countries from 2002-2017. We show that whereas DE predicts increased default probability, large DE predict negative future risk premia. Using panel regressions with several control variables, including risk appetite, we then document a negative association between DE and risk premia. Using the shock of the Deauville summit in October 2010 we document its impact using panel regressions one year before and after the event, and find further evidence of neglected risk before but not immediately after Deauville. Finally, analyzing the most recent data (2011-2017) we show that DE still predicts lower risk premia, but this effect is neutralized by quantitative easing, raising the public policy question of what will happen with the end of quantitative easing.
通过分析2002-2017年危机和非危机欧元区国家的主权信贷市场,我们发现了主权债务扩张(DE)期间被忽视风险的证据。我们表明,尽管DE预测违约概率增加,但大DE预测未来风险溢价为负。使用包括风险偏好在内的几个控制变量的面板回归,我们记录了DE和风险溢价之间的负相关。利用2010年10月多维尔峰会带来的冲击,我们利用峰会前后一年的面板回归记录了其影响,并找到了在多维尔峰会之前而不是之后被忽视的风险的进一步证据。最后,通过分析最新的数据(2011-2017年),我们发现DE仍然预测风险溢价较低,但这种影响被量化宽松抵消了,这就提出了量化宽松结束后会发生什么的公共政策问题。
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引用次数: 1
Optimal Configuration and Diversification of Wind Turbines: A Hybrid Approach to Improve the Penetration of Wind Power 风力发电机的优化配置和多样化:一种提高风力发电渗透率的混合方法
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3685202
Leo Klie, R. Madlener
Literature indicates a decline in the market value of wind power with increasing market penetration. Two promising measures to mitigate this market value drop are system-friendly turbines and geographical diversification. This study analyzes the combined potential of a hybrid approach used to simultaneously improve market values, reduce system costs and the overall subsidy needs in Germany. Therefore, promising diversification regions and site optimal turbine configurations are identified. The corresponding market values and levelized cost of electricity are forecasted for penetration rates of up to 65% (2030). The analysis shows that the market value drop in diversified regions using system-friendly turbines is less severe. Furthermore, the hybrid approach results in system cost and subsidy savings. Additional analyses show that the dominant share of the hybrid approach benefits can be attributed to the use of system-friendly turbines and that diversification does not seem to be a promising alternative for Germany.
文献表明,风电的市场价值随着市场渗透率的提高而下降。缓解这种市场价值下降的两项有希望的措施是系统友好型涡轮机和地理多样化。本研究分析了在德国同时提高市场价值、降低系统成本和总体补贴需求的混合方法的综合潜力。因此,确定了有希望的多样化区域和现场最佳涡轮配置。相应的市场价值和电力平准化成本预测渗透率高达65%(2030年)。分析表明,在使用系统友好型涡轮机的不同地区,市场价值下降的程度较轻。此外,混合方法还可以节省系统成本和补贴。另外的分析表明,混合方法的主要好处可以归功于系统友好型涡轮机的使用,而对德国来说,多样化似乎不是一个有希望的选择。
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引用次数: 19
Rural Subsidizes and Revealing Moral Hazards 农村补贴与道德风险暴露
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.25103/ijbesar.123.03
Chrysanthi Balomenou, M. Maliari, Simeon Semasis, S. Mamalis, Stavros Pavlidis
Purpose: At the end of the year 2013, the Greek Government to encourage the establishment of new enterprises in the agrifood sector announced the application of the program “New Farmers Installation within the financial framework of CAP”. As a consequence, almost 8.000 young people benefited from this program as they received subsidizes up to 20.000€ to establish a new agro enterprise. This work focuses on the examination of the results concerning those new entrants’ enhancing of production of agro-products. Moral hazards have been created as some of them take advantage of the inefficacy of the program’s control procedures and they contribute almost nothing to the final agro product. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is divided to into 2 parts. The literature of the theoretical perspective of the Greek economy is extensive. Taking under mind that Greece is a part of the European Union on the theoretical part are examined CAP’s subsidizes consequences on Greek Agriculture. Then the “New farmers’ installation” program is briefly presented. The theoretical part ends with references to moral hazards creation and corruption in Greece. In the second part, the empirical results presented. The research took place during September 2016 using a formalized questionnaire. The statistical analysis included the estimation of frequencies, percentages, and means, as well as coefficient correlations. Finding: According to the findings, it has been supported that financial programs directed to agriculture should be monitored for disbursement. Otherwise, these programs cannot achieve their targets such as the increase of in productivity in the agricultural sector. Moreover, the results of the study are similar to previous researches as Moral Hazards have been created. Research limitations/implications: Taking for granted that the lack of strict controls over the disbursement contributed to the increase in moral hazards, it is proposed that providing subsidies should be accompanied with disbursements only after strict controls. It is also suggested a combination as providing subsidies should only take place on the grants that the amount spent exclusively for rural enterprise liabilities. Originality/value: This paper provides the impetus for the study of moral hazard on rural subsidizes and constitutes primary research.
目的:2013年底,希腊政府为鼓励在农业食品部门建立新企业,宣布了“在CAP财政框架内新农民安置”计划的申请。因此,近8000名年轻人从该计划中受益,他们获得了高达2万欧元的补贴,用于建立新的农业企业。这项工作的重点是审查有关这些新进入者提高农产品生产的结果。道德风险已经产生,因为他们中的一些人利用了程序控制程序的无效,他们对最终农产品几乎没有贡献。设计/方法论/方法:本文分为两部分。关于希腊经济理论视角的文献十分广泛。考虑到希腊是欧盟的一部分,在理论方面研究了共同农业政策对希腊农业的补贴后果。然后简要介绍了“新农装”方案。理论部分以希腊的道德风险、创造和腐败作为结束。第二部分给出了实证结果。该研究于2016年9月进行,使用了正式的问卷调查。统计分析包括估计频率、百分比和平均值,以及相关系数。调查结果:根据调查结果,针对农业的财政项目应监测其支付情况。否则,这些计划就无法实现其目标,例如提高农业部门的生产力。此外,该研究的结果与以往的研究相似,因为道德风险已经被创造出来。研究局限/启示:想当然地认为缺乏对支出的严格控制导致了道德风险的增加,提出只有在严格控制之后才应该提供补贴。有人还建议,结合提供补贴,只应将赠款的数额专门用于农村企业负债。原创性/价值:本文为农村补贴的道德风险研究提供了动力,构成了初步研究。
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引用次数: 0
The Democratic Tax Proposals 民主党的税收提案
Pub Date : 2019-11-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3474471
David S. Miller, B. Koh, Sean Webb
This paper summarizes and analyzes the recent tax proposals offered by the presidential candidates and other prominent Democrats, including wealth taxes, mark-to-market taxation, a VAT, additional taxes, increased income tax rates, and increased gift and estate taxes.
本文总结并分析了总统候选人和其他知名民主党人最近提出的税收建议,包括财富税、按市值计价的税收、增值税、附加税、提高所得税税率、提高赠与税和遗产税。
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引用次数: 0
Ingresos del Estado español: origen, distribución y sostenibilidad (Revenues of the Spanish State: Origin, Distribution and Sustainability) Ingresos del Estado español: origen, distribución y sostenibilidad(西班牙国家收入:来源、分配和可持续性)
Pub Date : 2019-11-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3495012
Pablo Fernández, Eduardo de Apellániz
Spanish Abstract: Este documento resume los datos principales a los que hemos tenido acceso. Las cuentas del Estado Espanol son muy poco claras. Es inaceptable que el Estado no presente sus cobros y sus pagos de forma clara y transparente. Los cuatro mayores impuestos (Seguridad Social, IVA, IRPF y Sociedades) supusieron un 80% de los Ingresos. Los ingresos del Estado proceden en su gran mayoria de la conjuncion trabajo de las personas-empresas y que los pagan al Estado mayoritariamente las empresas. Es incorrecto (o mentira, segun el caso) afirmar que el unico impuesto que pagan las empresas es el impuesto sobre sociedades. De los 46,6 millones de espanoles en 2017, solo 13,3 pagaron por IRPF, 3 millones pagaron mas de €8.000 y 80.000 espanoles mas de €80.000. La sostenibilidad de los Ingresos del Estado no es obvia: se proporcionan cuatro temas para analizar. English Abstract: This document summarizes the main data to which we have had access. The accounts of the Spanish State are very unclear. It is unacceptable that the State does not present its collections and payments clearly and transparently. The four highest taxes (Social Security, VAT, Personal Income Tax and Companies) accounted for 80% of Income. The income of the State comes in the great majority of the conjunction work of the people-companies and that the companies pay mostly to the State. It is incorrect to state that the only tax paid by companies is the corporate tax. Of the 46.6 million Spaniards in 2017, only 13.3 paid for personal income tax, 3 million paid more than € 8,000 and 80,000 Spaniards over € 80,000. The sustainability of State Revenue is not obvious: four topics are provided for analysis.
摘要:本文档总结了我们可以访问的主要数据。西班牙政府的账目非常不清楚。国家不以明确和透明的方式提出其收款和付款是不可接受的。四种最大的税收(社会保障、增值税、个人所得税和公司税)占收入的80%。国家的大部分收入来自个人和企业的劳动组合,这些劳动主要由企业支付给国家。说企业缴纳的唯一税是公司税是不正确的(或者是谎言,视情况而定)。在2017年4660万西班牙人中,只有1330人支付了IRPF, 300万人支付了超过8000欧元,8万西班牙人支付了超过8万欧元。政府收入的可持续性并不明显:提出了四个需要分析的问题。English Abstract:本文件概述了the main data to which we have access人。西班牙国家的情况非常不清楚。国家没有清楚和透明地申报收款和付款,这是不可接受的。四种最高税收(社会保障、增值税、个人所得税和公司税)占收入的80%。国家的收入主要来自人民公司的劳动组合,这些公司主要向国家支付报酬。这是不正确的,说公司只缴纳公司税。在2017年4660万西班牙人中,只有1330人缴纳了个人所得税,300万人缴纳了8000欧元以上,8万人缴纳了8万欧元以上。国家收入的可持续性并不明显:提出了四个主题供分析。
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引用次数: 0
Breakup and Default Risks in the Great Lockdown 大封锁中的解体和违约风险
Pub Date : 2019-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3487453
G. Bonaccolto, Nicola Borri, A. Consiglio
Since the burst of the sovereign debt crisis, investors perceive the concrete possibility of a breakup of the Eurozone. We exploit CDS quotes for contracts denominated in different currencies and with different default clauses to estimate the network of breakup and default risk spillovers in the Eurozone isolating the relevant factors with regularization techniques. Our main result is that redenomination shocks to France and Italy have economically large spillovers. However, while redenomination shocks to France increase the risk of a breakup of the Eurozone, redenomination shocks to Italy increase the risk of sovereign defaults, like sovereign debt restructurings.
自主权债务危机爆发以来,投资者认为欧元区解体的可能性很大。我们利用不同货币和不同违约条款合约的CDS报价,用正则化技术隔离相关因素,估计欧元区的违约和违约风险溢出网络。我们的主要结论是,对法国和意大利的货币重估冲击在经济上具有巨大的溢出效应。然而,虽然对法国的重新计价冲击增加了欧元区解体的风险,但对意大利的重新计价冲击增加了主权债务重组等主权违约的风险。
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引用次数: 17
Nudging for Tax Compliance: A Meta-Analysis 推动税收合规:一项元分析
Pub Date : 2019-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3500744
Armenak Antinyan, Zareh Asatryan
Tax compliance nudges are used increasingly by governments because of their perceived cost-effectiveness in raising tax revenue. We collect about a thousand treatment effect estimates from 45 randomized controlled trials, and synthesize this rapidly growing literature using meta-analytical methods. We show that interventions pointing to elements of individual tax morale are on average ineffective in curbing tax evasion (when evaluated against a control group of taxpayers receiving neutral communication). In contrast, deterrence nudges - interventions emphasizing traditional determinants of compliance such as audit probabilities and penalty rates - increase compliance. However, their effects are modest in magnitude increasing the probability of compliance by 1.5-2.5 percentage points more than non-deterrence nudges. Our additional results suggest that nudges i) work better on sub-samples of late payers and when delivered in-person, ii) are less effective in the long-run and in lower-income countries, and iii) are somewhat inflated by selective reporting of results.
政府越来越多地使用税收合规推动措施,因为他们认为这在增加税收方面具有成本效益。我们从45个随机对照试验中收集了大约1000个治疗效果估计,并使用元分析方法综合了这些快速增长的文献。我们表明,针对个人税收士气因素的干预措施在遏制逃税方面平均无效(当与接受中立沟通的纳税人对照组进行评估时)。相比之下,威慑推动——强调合规的传统决定因素(如审计概率和处罚率)的干预措施——提高了合规。然而,他们的影响是适度的,比非威慑性的推动增加了1.5-2.5个百分点的遵守概率。我们的其他研究结果表明,推动i)在延迟付款人的子样本中效果更好,并且在亲自交付时效果更好,ii)长期和低收入国家的效果较差,iii)选择性报告结果在一定程度上夸大了效果。
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引用次数: 54
Tax Progressivity, Economic Booms, and Trickle-Up Economics 税收累进、经济繁荣和涓滴经济学
Pub Date : 2019-11-14 DOI: 10.20955/wp.2019.034
Christopher Otrok, Michael T. Owyang, Laura E. Jackson
We propose a method to decompose changes in the tax structure into orthogonal components measuring the level and progressivity of taxes. While our focus is on the progessivity results, we find that the level shock is similar to standard tax shocks found in the empirical literature in that a rise in the level is contractionary. We find that an increase in tax progressivity sets off an economic boom. When tax progressivity increases, those at the bottom of the income distribution experience an increase in disposable income; these consumers have a high marginal propensity to consume, and this increase in income results in a consumption boom which expands the overall economy. This overall economic expansion benefits those at the top of the income distribution as well, and the income and capital gains they experience as a result of the economic boom more than offset the losses they experienced due to the increase in tax progressivity. The net result is that an increase in progressivity leads to an increase in inequality, not a decrease as conventional wisdom would suggest. We interpret these results as evidence in favor of trickle up, not trickle down, economics.
我们提出了一种方法,将税收结构的变化分解为衡量税收水平和累进性的正交成分。虽然我们的重点是累进性结果,但我们发现水平冲击与经验文献中发现的标准税收冲击相似,因为水平的上升是收缩的。我们发现,提高税收累进率会引发经济繁荣。当税收累进率提高时,收入分配底部的人的可支配收入会增加;这些消费者有很高的边际消费倾向,收入的增加导致了消费繁荣,从而扩大了整体经济。这种整体经济扩张也有利于收入分配顶层的人,他们因经济繁荣而获得的收入和资本收益,远远抵消了他们因税收累进率增加而遭受的损失。最终的结果是,累进率的提高导致不平等的加剧,而不是传统观点所认为的减少。我们将这些结果解释为支持“涓滴向上”而非“涓滴向下”经济学的证据。
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引用次数: 3
The 2019 European Parliament Elections in Luxembourg in the Context of Past Elections 在过去选举的背景下,2019年卢森堡欧洲议会选举
Pub Date : 2019-11-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3480491
Anna-Lena Högenauer
The aim of this article is to analyse the 2019 European election in Luxembourg and to contextualize it by comparing it with past elections. The article presents the party landscape, the electoral campaign, the electoral system and the results of the 2019 European election. The results are then analysed in the context of past national and European elections in order to establish whether European elections are second-order elections in Luxembourg, how electoral volatility evolved over time, whether there is a rise in Eurosceptic parties and how the representation of women has evolved since 1979.
本文的目的是分析2019年卢森堡的欧洲选举,并通过将其与过去的选举进行比较来将其置于背景下。本文介绍了2019年欧洲选举的政党格局、竞选活动、选举制度和结果。然后在过去的国家和欧洲选举的背景下分析结果,以确定卢森堡的欧洲选举是否为二阶选举,选举波动性如何随着时间的推移而演变,欧洲怀疑主义政党是否有所增加,以及自1979年以来妇女的代表性如何演变。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
European Economics: Political Economy & Public Economics eJournal
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