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COVID-19 vs Bangladesh: Is it Possible to Recover the Impending Economic Distress Amid this Pandemic? COVID-19与孟加拉国:在这场大流行中,有可能恢复即将到来的经济困境吗?
Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3579697
Raad Mozib Lalon
The whole globe is going under a devastating threat of economic depression amid impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Almost No country can deny the fact propelling to the economic ramification of this diseases suggesting a confirmed apropos plan to recuperate any unavoidable circumstance in forthcoming economic arena. Bangladesh with no exception is also capitulated under a significant threat of economic disparity navigating a colossal crisis during and after this epidemic. This paper attempts to reveal what those possible impacts are causing this economic crisis for Bangladesh and how government along with all other stakeholders will respond to sustain socio-economic developments achieved during the recent fiscal years in spite of being submerged by the depressing mode of major economic indicators such as inverse trade growth, vigorous revenue deficit, mounting non-performing loan, falling private sector investment, volatility of market interest rate, capital market unrest and imminent horrid of global economic recession.
在新冠肺炎疫情的影响下,全球正面临经济萧条的毁灭性威胁。几乎没有一个国家可以否认这一事实,即这一疾病推动了经济后果,这表明在即将到来的经济舞台上有一个确定的适当计划来恢复任何不可避免的情况。孟加拉国也无一例外地屈服于经济不平等的重大威胁,在这场流行病期间和之后度过了一场巨大的危机。本文试图揭示这些可能的影响正在导致孟加拉国的经济危机,以及政府如何与所有其他利益相关者一起应对最近财政年度实现的持续社会经济发展,尽管被主要经济指标的压抑模式所淹没,例如逆贸易增长,强劲的收入赤字,不断增加的不良贷款,私营部门投资下降,市场利率波动,资本市场动荡不安,全球经济衰退迫在眉睫。
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引用次数: 31
Financial Development and Economic Growth an Empirical Analysis for Syria 叙利亚金融发展与经济增长的实证分析
Pub Date : 2020-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3569798
Lina Hammoud
Recently, Syria startup a remarkable economic and financial revolution, which raised many positive expectations regarding development and growth in all sectors and on many levels. This research is evidence for an individual case study, although it is common to study regression across countries to judge the effects of financial development, but it is also important to study the evidence for each country at least at the simple level. Through this research we will highlight the impact of previous Syrian reforms, and analyze their role to reach this important stage, by explaining the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Syria, over a period of twenty years, in addition to examines whether the exogenous component of financial intermediary development influences economic growth, by using the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth in Syria is investigated for the period 1970-2009. In order to see the impact of different aspects of financial development . The results were obtained using statistical methods, and further provided panel results supported with evidence involve the legal, regulatory, and policy determinants of financial development.
最近,叙利亚启动了一场引人注目的经济金融革命,在各个领域和各个层面对发展和增长提出了许多积极的期望。这项研究是一个个案研究的证据,尽管研究各国的回归来判断金融发展的影响是很常见的,但至少在简单的层面上研究每个国家的证据也很重要。通过这项研究,我们将通过解释叙利亚金融发展与经济增长之间的关系,强调叙利亚以前改革的影响,并分析它们在达到这一重要阶段的作用,在20年的时间里,除了检验金融中介发展的外生成分是否影响经济增长,通过对1970-2009年期间叙利亚金融发展与经济增长之间因果关系的方向进行研究。以便看到金融发展的不同方面的影响。使用统计方法获得结果,并进一步提供了涉及金融发展的法律、监管和政策决定因素的证据支持的小组结果。
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引用次数: 1
Losing in a Boom: Long-Term Consequences of a Local Economic Shock for Female Labour Market Outcomes 繁荣中的失败:地方经济冲击对女性劳动力市场结果的长期影响
Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3542205
P. Bennett, Chiara Ravetti, Po Yin Wong
This paper examines the long-term labour market consequences of a positive economic shock, the first discovery of oil and gas in Norway. Existing studies focus on the short-term and men, while less is known about women and the persistence of such shocks. Oil discovery increased male earnings (by 7%), while female earnings declined (by 10%). These shifts persist for two decades. Labour force participation and occupational change account for the earnings divergence. Within married couples, wives’ earnings declined, but household earnings increased. However, women’s income loss in oil regions is transitory: younger cohorts catch up to women in non-oil regions.
本文考察了积极的经济冲击对劳动力市场的长期影响,即挪威首次发现石油和天然气。现有的研究集中在短期和男性,而对女性和这种冲击的持久性知之甚少。石油发现增加了男性收入(7%),而女性收入下降(10%)。这种转变持续了20年。劳动力参与率和职业变化解释了收入差异。在已婚夫妇中,妻子的收入下降,但家庭收入增加。然而,石油地区妇女的收入损失是暂时的:更年轻的群体赶上了非石油地区的妇女。
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引用次数: 6
Sales Strategies of Banks: An Empirical Study of Select Private Sector Banks in India 银行销售策略:对印度部分私营银行的实证研究
Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.31838/jcr.07.02.14
S. Sinha, S. Mukherjee
Intense competition in Indian banking industry compelled the bankers to involve in active selling. This paper aimed to identify the different sales strategies used in banks and to investigate the perceptual gap between employees and customers towards different sales strategies. Empirical study has been conducted among select private sector banks in the Barak valley region of Indian state of Assam. Perceptual gap has been analysed by estimating significance difference between two sample mean. Findings revealed that there is a significance difference between perception between employees and customers towards up-selling strategy whereas there is no such difference in case of other sales strategies. Study found that unique nature of the up selling strategy is responsible for creating such differences in perception. This study cannot be generalised in case of entire Indian banking industry as it focused only on the sales strategies of private sector banks in India. Findings help the banks to understand the gap between the thinking of employees and customers towards the importance of different sales strategies.
印度银行业的激烈竞争迫使银行家积极参与抛售。本文旨在确定银行使用的不同销售策略,并调查员工和客户对不同销售策略的感知差距。实证研究在印度阿萨姆邦巴拉克山谷地区选定的私营部门银行中进行。通过估计两个样本均值之间的显著性差异来分析感知差距。调查结果显示,员工和客户对向上销售策略的认知存在显著差异,而对其他销售策略的认知则无显著差异。研究发现,向上销售策略的独特性是造成这种认知差异的原因。这项研究不能推广到整个印度银行业,因为它只关注印度私营部门银行的销售策略。调查结果有助于银行了解员工和客户对不同销售策略重要性的看法之间的差距。
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引用次数: 4
External Sector Responses to Oil Price Shocks: A Structural System Model for Nigeria 外部部门对石油价格冲击的反应:尼日利亚的结构系统模型
Pub Date : 2019-11-22 DOI: 10.4236/tel.2019.98180
C. Onyimadu
This study critically examines the effects of specific exogenous shocks—oil price shocks on Nigeria’s external sector. Employing a Structural Macroeconomic Model (SMM) comprising of ten behavioural equations and four identities with quarterly data spanning from 1981 to 2015, the SMM simulations of the external sector found that oil price shocks do have significant impacts on the components of Nigeria’s external sector. Specifically, while oil price shocks elicited varying responses from all components of Nigeria’s external sector components, the simulated results showed very limited evidence of asymmetry in the responses to both positive and negative oil price shocks. For policy, the simulated responses of capital financial flows, foreign debt flows, imports, nominal exchange rates, reserves, remittances, and capital financial flows, reflect the over-dependence of the Nigerian economy on crude oil, and the justifiable need to diversify the Nigerian economy away from the oil sector.
本研究批判性地考察了特定外生冲击-石油价格冲击对尼日利亚外部部门的影响。采用结构宏观经济模型(SMM),该模型包含十个行为方程和四个身份,并使用1981年至2015年的季度数据,外部部门的SMM模拟发现,油价冲击确实对尼日利亚外部部门的组成部分产生了重大影响。具体来说,虽然油价冲击引发了尼日利亚外部部门所有组成部分的不同反应,但模拟结果显示,对积极和消极油价冲击的反应不对称的证据非常有限。在政策方面,资本资金流动、外债流动、进口、名义汇率、储备、汇款和资本资金流动的模拟反应反映了尼日利亚经济对原油的过度依赖,以及尼日利亚经济从石油部门转向多元化的合理需求。
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引用次数: 2
Going Fast or Going Green? Evidence from Environmental Speed Limits in Norway 快速还是环保?来自挪威环境限速的证据
Pub Date : 2019-10-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3464251
Ingrid Kristine Folgerø, Torfinn Harding, Benjamin S. Westby
Abstract This paper studies the impact of speed limits on local air pollution using a series of date-specific speed limit reductions in Oslo over the 2004–2011 period. We find that lowering the speed limit from 80 to 60 km/h reduces travel speed by 5.8 km/h. However, we find no evidence of reduced air pollution as measured next to the treated roads. Our estimates suggest an annual time loss of the speed limit reductions of 66 USD per affected vehicle. Our findings imply that policy makers need to consider other actions than speed limit reductions to improve local air quality.
本文利用2004-2011年期间奥斯陆一系列特定日期的限速降低来研究限速对当地空气污染的影响。我们发现,将限速从80公里/小时降低到60公里/小时可使行驶速度降低5.8公里/小时。然而,在经过处理的道路附近,我们没有发现空气污染减少的证据。我们的估计表明,每辆受影响车辆每年因限速降低而损失的时间为66美元。我们的研究结果表明,为了改善当地空气质量,政策制定者需要考虑采取其他措施,而不是降低限速。
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引用次数: 19
Profit Shifting and the Effect of Stricter Transfer Pricing Regulation on Tax Revenue 利润转移与更严格的转让定价管制对税收的影响
Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3464248
Julia Tropina Bakke, Arnt O. Hopland, Jarle Møen
Using a 20-year-long, population-wide panel with detailed firm and group level data from Norway, we study the profitability change in companies that shift from being domestic to being multinational as well as companies that shift from being multinational to being domestic. Profitability falls when domestic companies become multinational and increases when multinational companies become domestic. The average change in profitability is about 24 %, all else equal. We attribute our findings to the profit shifting opportunities that are available for multinational companies, and we display several patterns in the data that are consistent with this interpretation. We find that the extent of profit shifting decreases after the introduction of stricter transfer pricing regulations, and an increase in transfer pricing audits, starting in 2007/2008. Our best estimate of the total corporate tax revenue lost due to profit shifting is about 6 % in the last year of the sample, 2012. We estimate that the revenue loss would have been twice as large in absence of the new regulatory framework.
我们使用了一项长达20年的、覆盖全人口的面板,其中包含了来自挪威的详细公司和集团层面的数据,研究了从国内转向跨国公司的公司以及从跨国转向国内的公司的盈利能力变化。当国内公司成为跨国公司时,盈利能力下降,当跨国公司成为国内公司时,盈利能力增加。在其他条件相同的情况下,利润率的平均变化约为24%。我们将我们的发现归因于跨国公司可获得的利润转移机会,并且我们在数据中展示了与这种解释一致的几种模式。我们发现,从2007/2008年开始,在引入更严格的转让定价法规和增加转让定价审计后,利润转移的程度降低了。在样本的最后一年,即2012年,我们对因利润转移而损失的公司税收总额的最佳估计约为6%。我们估计,如果没有新的监管框架,收入损失将是现在的两倍。
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引用次数: 1
The Evaluation of Obesity in Malaysia 马来西亚肥胖症的评估
Pub Date : 2019-09-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3455108
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Khor Swee Kheng, Rashid Ating
This paper shows how obesity can affect the productivity of any country. In our case, we evaluate its impact on Malaysia. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate any relationship between obesity and productivity. We then assess the association between obesity and the growth in labor productivity. We propose a new index entitled “The National Obesity Behavior Index (NOB-Index).” The NOB-Index offers the possibility to evaluate and monitoring expansion or contraction of obesity on the national and regional level. Finally, we provide a series of recommendations and policies to help solve this deep health problem in Malaysia.
这篇论文展示了肥胖如何影响任何国家的生产力。就我国而言,我们评估其对马来西亚的影响。本文的主要目的是评估肥胖和生产力之间的关系。然后我们评估肥胖和劳动生产率增长之间的关系。我们提出了一个新的指数——“国家肥胖行为指数(nob指数)”。nob指数提供了在国家和区域层面评估和监测肥胖的扩大或缩小的可能性。最后,我们提出了一系列建议和政策,以帮助解决马来西亚这一深层次的卫生问题。
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引用次数: 7
An Introduction to The Post-Natural Disasters People Losses and Damage Simulator (Ḧ-Simulator): Theoretical Framework 介绍后自然灾害人员损失和损害模拟器(Ḧ-Simulator):理论框架
Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3457126
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada, Michitaka Umemoto, J. Sapkota
In this paper, we introduce a new applicable tool to evaluate any post-natural disaster and its impact on people losses and damage, the new applicable tool is entitled “the post-natural disaster people losses and damage simulator (Ḧ-Simulator).” Subsequently, the Ḧ-Simulator works under the application of ten indicators such as (i) the impact of different post-natural disasters on people losses and damage ratio (ḦNH(i)-Ratio); (ii) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage ratio (Ḧt-Ratio); (iii) the impact of different post-natural disasters on people losses and damage balance (ḦNH(i)-Balance); (iv) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage balance (Ḧt-Balance); (v) the impact of different post-natural disasters on people losses and damage marginal rate (ḦNH(i)-Marginal Rate); (vi) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage marginal rate (Ḧt-Marginal Rate); (vii) the impact of different post-natural disasters on losses and damage critical point (ḦNH(i)-Critical Point); (viii) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage critical point (Ḧt-Critical Point); (ix) the impact of different post-natural disasters on losses and damage surface (ḦNH(i)-Surface); (x) the total impact of full post-natural disasters on people losses and damage surface (Ḧt-Surface). However, the measurement of the ḦNH(i)-Ratio and Ḧt-Ratio, in turn, is based on simultaneously evaluating nine sub-variables (svj), where each sub-variable is represented by “j” that is a positive integer number, each sub-variable (svj) follow this by: (i) the number of death people by Km2 (sv1); (ii) the total number of missing people by Km2 (sv2); (iii) the total number of trapped people by Km2 (sv3); (iv) the total number of minor injured people by Km2 (sv4); (v) the total number of critical injured people by Km2 (sv5); (vi) the total number of infected people by diseases or epidemics by Km2 (sv6); (vii) the total number of people affected by water and air pollution by Km2 (sv7); (viii) the capability of food and water reserves for all people by Km2 (sv8); (ix) the total number of patients that each hospital is capable to attend by Km2 (sv9). The main objective of the Ḧ-Simulator is to evaluate the people losses and damage directly from a specific natural hazard or a large number of possible natural hazards. Therefore, these natural hazards analyzed in the Ḧ-Simulator is followed by earthquake (NH1), tsunami (NH2), floods (NH3), volcano eruption (NH4), typhoon (NH5), fire pollution (NH6), snow avalanches (NH7), landslide (NH8), blizzards (NH9), cyclonic storms (NH10), Tornadoes (NH11), droughts (NH12), hailstorms (NH13), sandstorm (NH14), and hurricane (NH15) respectively. Finally, the Ḧ-Simulator offers a Microsoft excel worksheet to input, storage, classified, calculate, and visualize the people losses and damage by Km2 from each type of natural hazards or all na
本文介绍了一种新的适用于评估任何自然灾害及其对人员损失和损害影响的工具,该工具名为“自然灾害后人员损失和损害模拟器(Ḧ-Simulator)”。随后,Ḧ-Simulator应用10个指标进行工作,如:(i)不同自然灾害后对人员损失和损害的影响比率(ḦNH(i)-Ratio);(ii)灾后全面灾害对人员损失和损害的总影响比率(Ḧt-Ratio);(iii)不同自然灾害后对人员损失和损害平衡的影响(ḦNH(i)-平衡);(四)自然灾害全面后对人员损失和损害平衡的总体影响(Ḧt-Balance);(v)不同自然灾害后对人员损失和损害边际率的影响(ḦNH(i)-边际率);(vi)完全自然灾害后对人员损失和损害的总影响边际率(Ḧt-Marginal比率);(七)不同自然灾害后对损失和损害临界点的影响(ḦNH(i)-临界点);(viii)完全自然灾害后对人员损失和损害的总影响临界点(Ḧt-Critical点);(ix)不同自然灾害后对损失和损害面的影响(ḦNH(i)-面);(x)完全自然灾害后对人员损失和损害面的总影响(Ḧt-Surface)。然而,ḦNH(i)-比率和Ḧt-Ratio的测量反过来又基于同时评估九个子变量(svj),其中每个子变量用正整数" j "表示,每个子变量(svj)其后依次为:(i)死亡人数按平方公里计算(sv1);(ii)总失踪人数(平方公里)(sv2);(iii)被困总人数(平方公里)(sv3);(iv)按Km2计算的轻伤总人数(sv4);(v)危重伤员总人数(sv5);(六)按平方公里计算的疾病或流行病感染者总数(sv6);(vii)受水和空气污染影响的总人数(平方公里)(sv7);(viii)按平方公里计算的所有人的粮食和水储备能力(sv8);(九)按平方公里计算的每家医院能够接待的病人总数(sv9)。Ḧ-Simulator的主要目标是评估特定自然灾害或大量可能的自然灾害直接造成的人员损失和损害。因此,Ḧ-Simulator中分析的自然灾害依次为地震(NH1)、海啸(NH2)、洪水(NH3)、火山喷发(NH4)、台风(NH5)、火灾污染(NH6)、雪崩(NH7)、滑坡(NH8)、暴风雪(NH9)、气旋风暴(NH10)、龙卷风(NH11)、干旱(NH12)、冰雹(NH13)、沙尘暴(NH14)、飓风(NH15)。最后,Ḧ-Simulator提供了一个Microsoft excel工作表,用于输入、存储、分类、计算和可视化每平方公里由每种类型的自然灾害或所有自然灾害造成的人员损失和损害。
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引用次数: 0
Phillips Curve (Struggling Jargon): Practical Implication in Indian Context 菲利普斯曲线(挣扎的行话):在印度语境中的现实意义
Pub Date : 2019-07-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3466611
Deepmala Jasuja, Preeti Sharma
Inflation and Unemployment are two intricately linked concepts of Economics. The renowned economist William Phillips, described an inverse relationship between rates of unemployment and corresponding rates of rises in wages resulting within an economy. Over the years many researchers have tried to test the validity of Phillips Curve over various areas. Current research tries to find out the empirical relationship between Inflation and unemployment by testing of Phillips Curve in Indian context. To test the operation of Phillips curve in current Indian economic situation the data of twenty seven years i.e. 1992 to 2018 have been taken into consideration. To check the applicability of already existing theory of inverse relationship between Unemployment and Inflation, researchers have applied Co-integration and Granger Causality Test.
通货膨胀和失业是经济学中两个错综复杂的概念。著名经济学家威廉•菲利普斯(William Phillips)描述了一个经济体内部失业率与相应的工资涨幅之间的反比关系。多年来,许多研究人员试图在各个领域测试菲利普斯曲线的有效性。目前的研究试图通过检验印度背景下的菲利普斯曲线来找出通货膨胀与失业之间的实证关系。为了检验菲利普斯曲线在当前印度经济形势下的运行情况,我们选取了1992年至2018年27年的数据。为了检验已有的失业与通货膨胀负相关理论的适用性,研究者运用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验。
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引用次数: 1
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Norwegian School of Economics
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