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Stochastic Electricity Dispatch: A Challenge for Market Design 随机电力调度:对市场设计的挑战
Pub Date : 2016-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2829355
E. Bjørndal, M. Bjørndal, Kjetil T. Midthun, A. Tomasgard
We consider an electricity market with two sequential market clearings, for instance representing a day-ahead and a real-time market. When the first market is cleared, there is uncertainty with respect to generation and/or load, while this uncertainty is resolved when the second market is cleared. We compare the outcomes of a stochastic market clearing model, i.e. a market clearing model taking into account both markets and the uncertainty, to a myopic market model where the first market is cleared based only on given bids, and not taking into account neither the uncertainty nor the bids in the second market. While the stochastic market clearing gives a solution with a higher total social welfare, it poses several challenges for market design. The stochastic dispatch may lead to a dispatch where the prices deviate from the bid curves in the first market. This can lead to incentives for selfscheduling, require producers to produce above marginal cost and consumers to pay above their marginal value in the first market. Our analysis show that the wind producer has an incentive to deviate from the system optimal plan in both the myopic and stochastic model, and this incentive is particularly strong under the myopic model. We also discuss how the total social welfare of the market outcome under stochastic market clearing depends on the quality of the information that the system operator will base the market clearing on. In particular, we show that the wind producer has an incentive to misreport the probability distribution for wind.
我们考虑一个具有两个连续市场结算的电力市场,例如代表前一天和实时市场。当第一个市场出清时,发电和/或负荷方面存在不确定性,而当第二个市场出清时,这种不确定性得到解决。我们比较了随机市场出清模型(即考虑市场和不确定性的市场出清模型)和短视市场模型(仅根据给定出价出清第一个市场,既不考虑不确定性,也不考虑第二个市场的出价)的结果。市场随机出清提供了社会总福利较高的解决方案,但对市场设计提出了若干挑战。随机调度可能导致第一市场中价格偏离买入价曲线的调度。这可能导致激励自我调度,要求生产者生产高于边际成本和消费者支付高于他们在第一个市场的边际价值。我们的分析表明,无论在近视模型还是随机模型下,风电机组都有偏离系统最优计划的动机,并且这种动机在近视模型下尤为强烈。我们还讨论了在随机市场出清下,市场结果的社会总福利如何取决于系统操作者将基于的市场出清信息的质量。特别是,我们表明风力发电者有动机误报风力的概率分布。
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引用次数: 21
Specification of Merger Gains in the Norwegian Electricity Distribution Industry 挪威配电行业并购收益说明
Pub Date : 2016-04-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2766936
A. Saastamoinen, E. Bjørndal, M. Bjørndal
Electricity distribution often exhibits economies of scale. In Norway, a number of smaller distribution system operators exist and thus there is potential to restructure the industry, possibly through mergers. However, the revenue cap regulatory model in Norway does not incentivize firms to merge as merging leads to a stricter revenue cap for the merged company. Thus the regulator compensates the firms in order to create such incentives. The amount of compensation is based on the potential gains of the merger estimated using a data envelopment analysis (DEA) based frontier approach introduced by Bogetoft and Wang (Journal of Productivity Analysis, 23, 145–171, 2005). DEA is however only one of many possible frontier estimators that can be used in estimation. Furthermore, the returns to scale assumption, the operating environment of firms and the presence of stochastic noise and outlier observations are all known to affect to the estimation of production technology. In this paper we explore how varying assumption under two alternate frontier estimators shape the distribution of merger gains within the Norwegian distribution industry. Our results reveal that the restructuring policies of the industry may be significantly altered depending how potential gains from the mergers are estimated.
配电往往表现出规模经济。在挪威,存在一些较小的配电系统运营商,因此有可能通过合并重组该行业。然而,挪威的收入上限监管模式并没有激励公司合并,因为合并会导致合并后公司的收入上限更严格。因此,监管者补偿公司是为了创造这样的激励。补偿金额是基于Bogetoft和Wang (Journal of Productivity analysis, 23,145 - 171,2005)引入的基于数据包络分析(DEA)的前沿方法估算的合并的潜在收益。然而,DEA只是可以用于估计的许多可能的边界估计器之一。此外,已知规模收益假设、企业经营环境、随机噪声和离群值的存在都会影响生产技术的估计。在本文中,我们探讨了在两个交替边界估计器下的不同假设如何影响挪威分销行业内合并收益的分布。我们的研究结果表明,行业的重组政策可能会显著改变,这取决于如何估计合并的潜在收益。
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引用次数: 18
Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear–Quadratic Control: Characterization and Uniqueness of Equilibrium 时间不一致随机线性二次控制:平衡的表征和唯一性
Pub Date : 2015-04-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2589518
Ying Hu, Hanqing Jin, X. Zhou
In this paper, we continue our study on a general time-inconsistent stochastic linear--quadratic (LQ) control problem originally formulated in [6]. We derive a necessary and sufficient condition for equilibrium controls via a flow of forward--backward stochastic differential equations. When the state is one dimensional and the coefficients in the problem are all deterministic, we prove that the explicit equilibrium control constructed in cite{HJZ} is indeed unique. Our proof is based on the derived equivalent condition for equilibria as well as a stochastic version of the Lebesgue differentiation theorem. Finally, we show that the equilibrium strategy is unique for a mean--variance portfolio selection model in a complete financial market where the risk-free rate is a deterministic function of time but all the other market parameters are possibly stochastic processes.
在本文中,我们继续研究最初在[6]中提出的一般时间不一致随机线性二次(LQ)控制问题。通过一系列正-倒向随机微分方程,导出了平衡控制的充分必要条件。当状态为一维且问题中的系数均为确定性时,我们证明了cite{HJZ}中构造的显式平衡控制确实是唯一的。我们的证明是基于推导出的均衡的等价条件以及勒贝格微分定理的随机版本。最后,我们证明了均衡策略对于完全金融市场中的均值-方差投资组合选择模型是唯一的,其中无风险利率是时间的确定性函数,而所有其他市场参数可能是随机过程。
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引用次数: 112
The Equity Premium in a Production Economy; A New Perspective Involving Recursive Utility 生产经济条件下的股权溢价涉及递归效用的新视角
Pub Date : 2015-03-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2592970
K. Aase
We study a rational expectations' competitive equilibrium in a production economy, i.e., a system of prices at which firms' profit maximizing production decisions and individuals' preferred affordable consumption choices equate supply and demand in every market. We derive the equilibrium price of the firm and the equilibrium short term interest rate, the optimal per capita consumption in society, as well as the risk premium on equity. First a simple linear production technology with constant coefficients is studied, then a more general technology, and finally a general production economy with recursive utility is analyzed by the use of the stochastic maximum principle. While the two first models can not explain the empirics well using conventional preferences, the latter model is found to be much more promising in this regard. Wa also demonstrate a simple proof for the ICAPM.
我们研究了生产经济中理性预期的竞争均衡,也就是说,在一个价格系统中,企业利润最大化的生产决策和个人偏好的可负担的消费选择使每个市场的供给和需求相等。我们推导出企业的均衡价格和均衡短期利率、社会的最优人均消费以及股权的风险溢价。首先研究了一种简单的常系数线性生产技术,然后研究了一种更一般的生产技术,最后利用随机极大值原理分析了具有递归效用的一般生产经济。虽然前两个模型不能很好地解释使用传统偏好的经验,后一个模型被发现在这方面更有希望。我们还演示了ICAPM的一个简单证明。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond the Local Mean-Variance Analysis in Continuous Time: The Problem of Non-Normality 超越连续时间的局部均方差分析:非正态性问题
Pub Date : 2015-02-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2569610
K. Aase, J. Lillestøl
The paper investigates the effects of deviations from normality on the estimates of risk premiums and the real equilibrium, short-term interest rate in the conventional rational expectations equilibrium model of Lucas (1978). We consider a time-continuous approach, where both the aggregate consumption process as well as cumulative dividends from risky assets are assumed to be jump-di usion processes. This approach allows for random jumps in the fundamental underlying processes at random time points. Preferences are time separable and additive. We derive testable expressions for these quantities, and confront these with 20. century sample estimates. Since there are non-linear components in the formulas for the risk premiums and the interest rate, we can readily explore what effect deviation from normality has on these quantities. Our results test the boundaries of the conventional model.
本文研究了在Lucas(1978)的传统理性预期均衡模型中,偏离正态性对风险溢价和实际均衡短期利率的估计的影响。我们考虑了一个时间连续的方法,其中总消费过程和风险资产的累积股息都被假设为跳跃扩散过程。这种方法允许在随机时间点的基本底层过程中随机跳跃。偏好在时间上是可分离的,也是可加的。我们推导出这些量的可测试表达式,并将它们与20对质。世纪样本估计。由于在风险溢价和利率的公式中存在非线性成分,我们可以很容易地探索偏离正态性对这些量的影响。我们的结果测试了传统模型的边界。
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引用次数: 2
Determinants of Land Use Change in South-West Region of Bangladesh 孟加拉国西南地区土地利用变化的决定因素
Pub Date : 2014-10-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2547885
J. Alam
Like all other parts of the world, land use patterns in Bangladesh especially of south-west part have been observed to change rapidly since late of 20th century. Lands of south-west region were generally used for rice farming since the middle of 20th century but polderization project of Bangladesh during 1970s caused major changes in land use pattern either through transformation or modification of land cover and cropping. Literature shows that single cropped rice areas of past decades have already been cultivated twice or thrice per year while some such lands have already been converted for shrimp farming. This paper examines the determinants of land use patterns and their corresponding changes (i.e. rice and shrimp farming) over time at pirozpur village of Kaligonj upazila under Satkhira district of Khulna division in Bangladesh. The study is being done on the basis of cross-sectional data collected from the decision maker or head of each sample household. Here data have been collected through questionnaire as well as focus group discussion from a sample size of 80 households; each forty from shrimp and rice farming. Here logistic regression considering rice farming land as the reference dummy as well as cost-benefit analysis is being done to know the extents of land use determinants. However, the study area being close to river Hariavanga, shrimp farming has become predominant in the study area and young people are more interested in shrimp farming than in any other land use alternatives. Analysis shows that cost free irrigation for shrimp farming as well as higher profit, lower cost and available inputs are the major factors of increased shrimp farming in the study area. The study also finds that if rice can be cultivated thrice per year then shrimp is less attractive while there lacks training facilities for the rice farmers which may cause dissatisfaction to land owners causing conversion of rice land into shrimp. Available land holders primarily decide their land use pattern based on short run cost benefit calculation rather than long run impact of land use in their livelihood as well as ecology. The study finds age, natural calamities, family type and availability of credit to be negatively related with shrimp farming while land engagement process, accessibility, economically active family number, proximity to service sector, neighborhood land use patterns, land ownership and land rent to be positively related. Whatever be the determinants of land use and their corresponding extents, mass awareness should be emphasized for optimal land use.
与世界上所有其他地区一样,孟加拉国特别是西南部的土地利用模式自20世纪末以来发生了迅速变化。自20世纪中叶以来,西南地区的土地普遍用于水稻种植,但孟加拉国20世纪70年代的圩田化工程通过土地覆盖和种植的改造或修改,使土地利用模式发生了重大变化。文献显示,在过去几十年里,单种水稻的地区每年已经种植了两到三次,而其中一些土地已经转为虾类养殖。本文研究了孟加拉国库尔纳省Satkhira区Kaligonj upazila的pirozpur村土地利用模式的决定因素及其随时间的相应变化(即水稻和虾类养殖)。这项研究是根据从每个抽样家庭的决策者或户主那里收集的横截面数据进行的。本文通过问卷调查和焦点小组讨论的方式收集了80户家庭的数据;每40个来自虾和水稻养殖。在这里,考虑到水稻种植用地作为参考虚拟以及成本效益分析的逻辑回归,以了解土地利用决定因素的程度。然而,由于研究区域靠近Hariavanga河,虾类养殖在研究区域占主导地位,年轻人对虾类养殖比其他任何土地利用方式更感兴趣。分析表明,无成本的对虾养殖灌溉以及更高的利润、更低的成本和有效的投入是研究区对虾养殖增加的主要因素。该研究还发现,如果水稻每年可以种植三次,那么虾的吸引力就会降低,同时缺乏对稻农的培训设施,这可能会引起土地所有者的不满,导致稻田变成虾。可用土地持有人主要基于短期成本效益计算来决定其土地利用模式,而不是基于土地利用对其生计和生态的长期影响。研究发现,年龄、自然灾害、家庭类型和信贷可得性与虾类养殖呈负相关,而土地参与过程、可及性、经济活跃家庭人数、与服务部门的接近程度、社区土地利用模式、土地所有权和土地租金呈正相关。无论土地利用的决定因素是什么及其相应的程度如何,都应强调群众对最佳土地利用的认识。
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引用次数: 1
The Coauthorship Network Analysis of the BI Norwegian Business School BI挪威商学院合著者网络分析
Pub Date : 2014-07-09 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2459865
I. Belik, K. Jørnsten
We construct the coauthorship network based on the scientific collaboration between the faculty members at the Norwegian Business School (BI) and based on their international academic publication experience. The network structure is based on the BI faculties’ publications recognized by the ISI Web of Science for the period 1950 – Spring, 2014. The given network covers the publication activities of the BI faculty members (over eight departments) based on the information retrieved from the ISI Web of Science in Spring, 2014. In this paper we analyse the constructed coauthorship network in different aspects of the theory of social networks analysis.
我们基于挪威商学院(BI)教师之间的科学合作和他们的国际学术出版经验构建了合作作者网络。网络结构基于1950年至2014年春季ISI科学网认可的BI院系出版物。给定的网络涵盖了BI教师(超过八个系)的出版活动,基于2014年春季从ISI Web of Science检索的信息。本文从社会网络分析理论的不同角度对已构建的合作网络进行了分析。
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引用次数: 2
A Carbon Footprint Proportional to Expenditure - a Case for Norway? 碳足迹与支出成正比——挪威的案例?
Pub Date : 2014-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2425600
Patrick A. Narbel, E. Isaksen
Assuming that emissions originate from the consumption of goods and services, we study the relationship between consumption-based per capita carbon footprint and per capita expenditure for Norway, using 2007 data. A two-region input-output model reveals that the consumption-based per capita carbon footprint is directly proportional to expenditure with an estimated elasticity close to unity. We show that this result is at least partly driven by a near zero-emission power sector, which leads to comparatively low emission intensities for domestically-produced goods and services.
假设排放源于商品和服务的消费,我们使用2007年的数据研究了挪威基于消费的人均碳足迹与人均支出之间的关系。两区域投入产出模型表明,基于消费的人均碳足迹与支出成正比,估计弹性接近于1。我们表明,这一结果至少部分是由接近零排放的电力部门推动的,这导致国内生产的商品和服务的排放强度相对较低。
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引用次数: 46
The Effect of Oil Prices on Offshore Production: Evidence from the Norwegian Continental Shelf 石油价格对海上生产的影响:来自挪威大陆架的证据
Pub Date : 2014-02-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2404980
Johannes Mauritzen
I use detailed field-level data on Norwegian off-shore oil field production and a semi-parametric additive model to control for the production profile of fields to estimate the effect of oil prices on production. I find no significant evidence of a concurrent reaction of field production to oil prices, though a slight lagged effect is found of the magnitude of approximately 2 to 4% for a 10 dollar per barrel increase in the real price of oil. Most of this effect appears to come in the planning phase of a field’s development.
我使用挪威海上油田生产的详细油田级数据和半参数加性模型来控制油田的生产剖面,以估计油价对生产的影响。我没有发现油田产量对油价有同步反应的显著证据,尽管发现实际油价每上涨10美元,就会产生大约2%到4%的滞后效应。这种影响大部分出现在油田开发的规划阶段。
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引用次数: 2
A Pair-Models Idea for FDI and Economic Growth in Romania 外商直接投资与罗马尼亚经济增长的双模型研究
Pub Date : 2014-02-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2396120
D. Andrei
Studying correlation between foreign direct investments (FDI) and economic growth might be as generous idea as meeting enough defaults and obstacles when put into practice. Then, the pair-models idea (Voivodas 1973) looks appropriate for such a study since determination complexities and environments of the two are the same and concomitantly acting. Actually, imagine a list of variables with concomitant time data, of which two will shift position between exogenous and endogenous. Two apparently distinct models will so result as pair-models, whereas the two variables that were presumably suspected for a significant interrelation are FDI and economic growth, due to their similarly influential environments and complexity degrees of determination. And as pair-models, the two are supposed to be symmetrical for both data used and significance. So, basically, models will be both linear, but unfortunately they won’t respect this symmetry principle in all details due to some other requirements applied.
研究外国直接投资(FDI)与经济增长之间的关系可能是一个慷慨的想法,就像在实践中遇到足够多的违约和障碍一样。然后,配对模型的想法(Voivodas 1973)看起来适合这样的研究,因为两者的决定复杂性和环境是相同的,并同时起作用。实际上,想象一下,有一个伴随时间数据的变量列表,其中两个将在外生和内生之间转换位置。因此,两个明显不同的模型将产生成对模型,而可能被怀疑具有重要相互关系的两个变量是外国直接投资和经济增长,因为它们的影响环境和决定程度相似。作为成对模型,这两个模型在使用的数据和重要性上都应该是对称的。所以,基本上,模型都是线性的,但不幸的是,由于一些其他的要求,它们不会在所有的细节上都尊重这个对称原则。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Norwegian School of Economics
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