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Efficient control chart calibration by simulated stochastic approximation 模拟随机逼近的有效控制图校准
Pub Date : 2016-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1055392
G. Capizzi, G. Masarotto
ABSTRACT The accurate determination of control limits is crucial in statistical process control. The usual approach consists in computing the limits so that the in-control run-length distribution has some desired properties; for example, a prescribed mean. However, as a consequence of the increasing complexity of process data, the run-length of many control charts discussed in the recent literature can be studied only through simulation. Furthermore, in some scenarios, such as profile and autocorrelated data monitoring, the limits cannot be tabulated in advance, and when different charts are combined, the control limits depend on a multidimensional vector of parameters. In this article, we propose the use of stochastic approximation methods for control chart calibration and discuss enhancements for their implementation (e.g., the initialization of the algorithm, an adaptive choice of the gain, a suitable stopping rule for the iterative process, and the advantages of using multicore workstations). Examples are used to show that simulated stochastic approximation provides a reliable and fully automatic approach for computing the control limits in complex applications. An R package implementing the algorithm is available in the supplemental materials.
在统计过程控制中,控制限的准确确定至关重要。通常的方法包括计算极限,使控制下的游程分布具有一些期望的性质;例如,一个规定的平均值。然而,由于过程数据日益复杂,最近文献中讨论的许多控制图的运行长度只能通过模拟来研究。此外,在某些场景中,例如概要文件和自相关数据监控,不能预先将限制制表,并且当不同的图表组合在一起时,控制限制依赖于参数的多维向量。在本文中,我们建议使用随机逼近方法进行控制图校准,并讨论其实现的增强功能(例如,算法的初始化,增益的自适应选择,迭代过程的合适停止规则,以及使用多核工作站的优势)。实例表明,模拟随机逼近为复杂应用中的控制极限计算提供了一种可靠的全自动方法。在补充材料中提供了实现该算法的R包。
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引用次数: 14
The EWMA median chart with estimated parameters 带有估计参数的EWMA中值图
Pub Date : 2016-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1056861
P. Castagliola, P. Maravelakis, Fernanda Figueiredo
ABSTRACT The usual practice in control charts is to assume that the chart parameters are known or can be accurately estimated from in-control historical samples and the data are free from outliers. Both of these assumptions are not realistic in practice: a control chart may involve the estimation of process parameters from a very limited number of samples and the data may contain some outliers. In order to overcome these issues, in this article, we develop an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) median chart with estimated parameters to monitor the mean value of a normal process. We study the run length properties of the proposed chart using a Markov Chain approach and the performance of the proposed chart is compared to the EWMA median chart with known parameters. Several tables for the design of the proposed chart are given in order to expedite the use of the chart by practitioners. An illustrative example is also given along with some recommendations about the minimum number of initial subgroups m for different sample sizes n that must be collected for the estimation of the parameters so that the proposed chart has identical performance as the chart with known parameters. From the results we deduce that (i) there is a large difference between the known and estimated parameters cases unless the initial number of subgroups m is large; and (ii) the difference between the known and estimated parameters cases can be reduced by using dedicated chart parameters.
控制图的通常做法是假设图表参数是已知的,或者可以从控制的历史样本中准确地估计出来,并且数据没有异常值。这两种假设在实践中都是不现实的:控制图可能涉及从非常有限的样本中估计过程参数,并且数据可能包含一些异常值。为了克服这些问题,在本文中,我们开发了一个带有估计参数的指数加权移动平均(EWMA)中位数图,以监测正常过程的平均值。我们使用马尔可夫链方法研究了所提出的图表的运行长度特性,并将所提出的图表的性能与已知参数的EWMA中位数图表进行了比较。为了方便实务人员使用,我们提供了设计建议图表的几个表格。还给出了一个说明性示例,以及一些关于不同样本量n的初始子组的最小数量m的建议,这些子组必须收集用于估计参数,以便所提出的图表与具有已知参数的图表具有相同的性能。结果表明:(1)除非初始子群数m很大,否则已知参数与估计参数之间存在较大差异;(ii)使用专用的图表参数,可缩小已知参数与估计参数之间的差异。
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引用次数: 64
Monitoring wafers’ geometric quality using an additive Gaussian process model 利用加性高斯过程模型监测晶圆的几何质量
Pub Date : 2016-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1027455
Linmiao Zhang, Kaibo Wang, Nan Chen
ABSTRACT The geometric quality of a wafer is an important quality characteristic in the semiconductor industry. However, it is difficult to monitor this characteristic during the manufacturing process due to the challenges created by the complexity of the data structure. In this article, we propose an Additive Gaussian Process (AGP) model to approximate a standard geometric profile of a wafer while quantifying the deviations from the standard when a manufacturing process is in an in-control state. Based on the AGP model, two statistical tests are developed to determine whether or not a newly produced wafer is conforming. We have conducted extensive numerical simulations and real case studies, the results of which indicate that our proposed method is effective and has potentially wide application.
晶圆片的几何质量是半导体工业中一项重要的质量特征。然而,由于数据结构的复杂性所带来的挑战,在制造过程中很难监控这一特性。在本文中,我们提出了一个加性高斯过程(AGP)模型来近似晶圆片的标准几何轮廓,同时量化当制造过程处于控制状态时与标准的偏差。基于AGP模型,开发了两种统计检验来确定新生产的晶圆是否合格。我们进行了大量的数值模拟和实际案例研究,结果表明我们提出的方法是有效的,具有广泛的应用前景。
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引用次数: 35
A preposterior analysis to predict identifiability in the experimental calibration of computer models 预测计算机模型实验校准中可识别性的前验分析
Pub Date : 2016-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1064554
Paul D. Arendt, D. Apley, Wei Chen
ABSTRACT When using physical experimental data to adjust, or calibrate, computer simulation models, two general sources of uncertainty that must be accounted for are calibration parameter uncertainty and model discrepancy. This is complicated by the well-known fact that systems to be calibrated are often subject to identifiability problems, in the sense that it is difficult to precisely estimate the parameters and to distinguish between the effects of parameter uncertainty and model discrepancy. We develop a form of preposterior analysis that can be used, prior to conducting physical experiments but after conducting the computer simulations, to predict the degree of identifiability that will result after conducting the physical experiments for a given experimental design. Specifically, we calculate the preposterior covariance matrix of the calibration parameters and demonstrate that, in the examples that we consider, it provides a reasonable prediction of the actual posterior covariance that is calculated after the experimental data are collected. Consequently, the preposterior covariance can be used as a criterion for designing physical experiments to help achieve better identifiability in calibration problems.
当使用物理实验数据调整或校准计算机模拟模型时,必须考虑两个一般的不确定性来源,即校准参数的不确定性和模型差异。众所周知,待校准的系统往往存在可识别性问题,也就是说,很难精确地估计参数并区分参数不确定性和模型差异的影响,这使情况变得复杂。我们开发了一种可用于在进行物理实验之前但在进行计算机模拟之后的预验分析形式,以预测针对给定实验设计进行物理实验后将产生的可识别程度。具体来说,我们计算了校准参数的后验协方差矩阵,并证明在我们考虑的例子中,它可以合理地预测实验数据收集后计算出的实际后验协方差。因此,前后验协方差可以作为设计物理实验的标准,以帮助在校准问题中获得更好的可识别性。
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引用次数: 32
Designed sampling from large databases for controlled trials 从大型数据库中为对照试验设计抽样
Pub Date : 2015-09-22 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2016.1189633
Liwen Ouyang, D. Apley, Sanjay Mehrotra
ABSTRACT Controlled trials are ubiquitously used to investigate the effect of a medical treatment. The trial outcome can be dependent on a set of patient covariates. Traditional approaches have relied primarily on randomized patient sampling and allocation to treatment and control groups. However, when covariate data for a large set of patients are available and the dependence of the outcome on the covariates is of interest, one can potentially design treatment/control groups that provide better estimates of the covariate-dependent effects of the treatment or provide similarly accurate estimates with a smaller trial cohort size. In this article, we develop an approach that uses optimal Design Of Experiments (DOE) concepts to select the patients for the treatment and control groups upfront, based on their covariate values, in a manner that optimizes the information content in the data. For the optimal treatment and control groups selection, we develop simple guidelines and an optimization algorithm that achieves much more accurate estimates of the covariate-dependent effects of the treatment than random sampling. We demonstrate the advantage of our method through both theoretical and numerical performance comparisons. The advantages are more pronounced when the trial cohort size is smaller, relative to the number of records in the database. Moreover, our approach causes no sampling bias in the estimated effects, for the same reason that DOE principles do not bias estimated effects. Although we focus on medical treatment assessment, the approach has applicability in many analytics application domains where one wants to conduct a controlled experimental study to identify the covariate-dependent effects of a factor (e.g., a marketing sales promotion), based on a sample of study subjects selected optimally from a large database of covariates.
对照试验普遍用于研究药物治疗的效果。试验结果可能依赖于一组患者协变量。传统的方法主要依赖于随机的患者抽样和分配到治疗组和对照组。然而,当大量患者的协变量数据可用,并且结果对协变量的依赖性很感兴趣时,可以设计治疗/对照组,以更好地估计治疗的协变量依赖效应,或以较小的试验队列规模提供类似的准确估计。在本文中,我们开发了一种方法,该方法使用最佳实验设计(DOE)概念,以优化数据中的信息内容的方式,根据其协变量值预先选择治疗组和对照组的患者。对于最佳治疗和对照组的选择,我们制定了简单的指导方针和优化算法,以实现比随机抽样更准确地估计治疗的协变量依赖效应。我们通过理论和数值性能比较证明了我们的方法的优势。相对于数据库中的记录数量,当试验队列规模较小时,优势更为明显。此外,我们的方法在估计的效果中不会引起抽样偏差,原因与DOE原理不会使估计的效果产生偏差相同。虽然我们关注的是医疗评估,但该方法适用于许多分析应用领域,在这些领域中,人们希望进行对照实验研究,以确定一个因素(例如,营销促销)的协变量依赖效应,这是基于从大型协变量数据库中选择最佳的研究对象样本。
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引用次数: 3
Modeling and solving a closed-loop scheduling problem with two types of setups 建模并求解两种装置的闭环调度问题
Pub Date : 2015-08-03 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2014.928963
Subhamoy Ganguly, M. Laguna
Production systems with closed-loop facilities must deal with the problem of sequencing batches in consecutive loops. This article studies a problem encountered in a production facility in which plastic parts of several shapes must be painted with different colors to satisfy the demand given by a set of production orders. The shapes and the colors produce a dual-setup problem that to the best of our knowledge has not been considered in the literature. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer program and the limitations of this approach as a viable solution method are discussed. Two alternative solution approaches are described that are heuristic in nature: one specialized procedure developed from scratch and the other one built in the framework of commercial software. The presented computational experiments were designed to assess the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches.
具有闭环设施的生产系统必须处理连续循环中的批次排序问题。本文研究了某生产设备中遇到的一个问题,该问题是为了满足一组生产订单的要求,必须对几种形状的塑料零件涂上不同的颜色。形状和颜色产生了双重设置问题,据我们所知,这在文献中还没有被考虑过。将该问题表述为一个混合整数规划,并讨论了该方法作为一种可行的求解方法的局限性。描述了两种可选的解决方案方法,它们本质上是启发式的:一种是从头开发的专门过程,另一种是在商业软件框架中构建的。所提出的计算实验旨在评估这两种方法的优缺点。
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引用次数: 2
Robust purchasing and information asymmetry in supply chains with a price-only contract 纯价格契约下供应链的稳健采购与信息不对称
Pub Date : 2015-08-03 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2014.953644
Michael R. Wagner
This article proves that information can be a double-edged sword in supply chains. A simple supply chain is studied that consists of one supplier and one retailer, interacting via a wholesale price contract, where one firm knows the probabilistic distribution of demand and the other only knows the mean and variance. The firm with limited distributional knowledge applies simple robust optimization techniques. It is proved that a firm’s informational advantage is not necessarily beneficial and can lead to a reduction of the firm’s profit, demonstrating the detriment of information. It is shown how the direction of asymmetry, demand variability, and product economics affect both firms’ profits. These results also provide an understanding of how asymmetric information impacts the double-marginalization effect for the cumulative profits of the supply chain in certain cases reducing the effect. The symmetric incomplete informational case, where both firms only know the mean and variance of demand, is also studied and it is shown that it is possible that both firms can benefit from their collective lack of information. Throughout this article, practical guidelines where a supplier or retailer is motivated to share, hide, or seek information are identified.
这篇文章证明了信息在供应链中是一把双刃剑。研究了一个简单的供应链,由一个供应商和一个零售商组成,通过批发价格合同进行互动,其中一个公司知道需求的概率分布,而另一个公司只知道均值和方差。有限分布知识的公司应用简单的鲁棒优化技术。证明了企业的信息优势并不一定是有益的,它可能导致企业利润的减少,从而证明了信息的危害。它显示了不对称的方向、需求可变性和产品经济学如何影响两家公司的利润。这些结果也提供了对信息不对称如何影响双重边缘化效应的理解,在某些情况下,供应链的累积利润减少了这种效应。本文还研究了对称的不完全信息情况,即两家公司都只知道需求的均值和方差,结果表明,两家公司都有可能从他们的集体信息缺乏中获益。在本文中,确定了一些实用的指导方针,这些指导方针激励供应商或零售商共享、隐藏或查找信息。
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引用次数: 17
Product allocation problem for an AS/RS with multiple in-the-aisle pick positions 具有多个通道内拾取位置的AS/RS的产品分配问题
Pub Date : 2015-07-17 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1027458
F. Ramtin, Jennifer A. Pazour
An automated storage/retrieval system with multiple in-the-aisle pick positions is a semi-automated case-level order fulfillment technology that is widely used in distribution centers. We study the impact of product to pick position assignments on the expected throughput for different operating policies, demand profiles, and shape factors. We develop efficient algorithms of complexity O(nlog(n)) that provide the assignment that minimizes the expected travel time. Also, for different operating policies, shape configurations, and demand curves, we explore the structure of the optimal assignment of products to pick positions and quantify the difference between using a simple, practical assignment policy versus the optimal assignment. Finally, we derive closed-form analytical travel time models by approximating the optimal assignment's expected travel time using continuous demand curves and assuming an infinite number of pick positions in the aisle. We illustrate that these continuous models work well in estimating the travel time of a discrete rack and use them to find optimal design configurations.
具有多个通道内取货位置的自动存储/检索系统是一种广泛应用于配送中心的半自动化案例级订单履行技术。我们研究了产品选择位置分配对不同操作策略、需求概况和形状因素的预期吞吐量的影响。我们开发了复杂度为0 (nlog(n))的高效算法,提供了最小化预期旅行时间的分配。此外,对于不同的操作策略、形状配置和需求曲线,我们探索了产品最优分配的结构,以选择位置,并量化使用简单、实用的分配策略与最优分配之间的差异。最后,我们通过使用连续需求曲线近似最优分配的期望旅行时间,并假设过道中有无限个拣货位置,推导出封闭形式的解析旅行时间模型。我们证明了这些连续模型可以很好地估计离散机架的行程时间,并使用它们来找到最优设计配置。
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引用次数: 43
Simulation optimization in inventory replenishment: a classification 库存补充中的模拟优化:一个分类
Pub Date : 2015-06-26 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1019162
H. Jalali, I. Nieuwenhuyse
Simulation optimization is increasingly popular for solving complicated and mathematically intractable business problems. Focusing on academic articles published between 1998 and 2013, the present survey aims to unveil the extent to which simulation optimization has been used to solve practical inventory problems (as opposed to small, theoretical “toy problem”), and to detect any trends that might have arisen (e.g., popular topics, effective simulation optimization methods, frequently studied inventory system structures). We find that metaheuristics (especially genetic algorithms) and methods that combine several simulation optimization techniques are the most popular. The resulting categorizations provide a useful overview for researchers studying complex inventory management problems, by providing detailed information on the inventory system characteristics and the employed simulation optimization techniques, highlighting articles that involve stochastic constraints (e.g., expected fill rate constraints) or that employ a robust simulation optimization approach. Finally, in highlighting both trends and gaps in the research field, this review suggests avenues for further research.
模拟优化在解决复杂和数学上难以处理的业务问题方面越来越受欢迎。本调查着眼于1998年至2013年间发表的学术文章,旨在揭示模拟优化在多大程度上被用于解决实际库存问题(而不是小的、理论上的“玩具问题”),并检测可能出现的任何趋势(例如,流行话题、有效的模拟优化方法、经常研究的库存系统结构)。我们发现元启发式(尤其是遗传算法)和结合多种模拟优化技术的方法是最受欢迎的。通过提供库存系统特征的详细信息和所采用的模拟优化技术,重点介绍了涉及随机约束(例如,预期填充率约束)或采用鲁棒模拟优化方法的文章,由此得出的分类为研究复杂库存管理问题的研究人员提供了有用的概述。最后,在强调研究领域的趋势和差距的同时,本文提出了进一步研究的途径。
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引用次数: 79
Production planning and inventory control for a two-product recovery system 双产品回收系统的生产计划和库存控制
Pub Date : 2015-06-22 DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2015.1056389
Jie Pan, Yi Tao, L. Lee, E. P. Chew
The significance of product recovery through remanufacturing has been widely recognized and has compelled manufacturers to incorporate product recovery activities into normal manufacturing processes. Consequently, increasing attention has been paid to production and inventory management of the product recovery system where demand is satisfied through either manufacturing brand-new products or remanufacturing returned products into new ones. In this work, we investigate a recovery system with two product types and two return flows. A periodic-review inventory problem is addressed in the two-product recovery system and an approximate dynamic programming approach is proposed to obtain production and recovery decisions. A single-period problem is first solved and the optimal solution is characterized by a multilevel threshold policy. For the multi-period problem, we show that the threshold levels of each period are solely dependent on the gradients of the cost-to-go function at points of interest after approximation. The gradients are estimated by an infinitesimal perturbation analysis–based method and a backward induction approach is then applied to derive the threshold levels of each period. Numerical experiments are conducted under different scenarios and the threshold policy is shown to outperform two other heuristic policies.
通过再制造回收产品的重要性已得到广泛认可,并迫使制造商将产品回收活动纳入正常的制造过程。因此,产品回收系统的生产和库存管理越来越受到重视,通过制造全新产品或将退货产品再制造成新的产品来满足需求。在这项工作中,我们研究了一个具有两种产品类型和两种回流的回收系统。研究了两产品回收系统的周期评审库存问题,提出了一种近似动态规划方法来求解生产和回收决策。首先求解单周期问题,最优解具有多级阈值策略的特征。对于多周期问题,我们证明了每个周期的阈值水平仅依赖于兴趣点附近的成本函数的梯度。采用基于微扰分析的方法估计梯度,然后采用逆向归纳方法推导出每个周期的阈值水平。在不同的场景下进行了数值实验,结果表明阈值策略优于其他两种启发式策略。
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引用次数: 3
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