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Data Mining Method for Identifying Biased or Misleading Future Outlook 识别有偏见或误导性未来展望的数据挖掘方法
Pub Date : 2021-09-22 DOI: 10.1142/s0219622021500516
A. Yosef, Moti Schneider, E. Shnaider
In this study, we introduce a data mining method to identify biased and/or misleading outlooks for future performance of various factors, such as income, corporate profits, production, countries’ GDP, etc. The method consists of several components. One very important component involves building a general model, where the dependent variable is a factor suspected of projecting an over-optimistic impression in some records. Explanatory variables in the model are viewed as representing the potential for the satisfactory performance of the dependent variable. The second component involves evaluating the potential for the individual records of interest (specific countries, corporations, production facilities, etc.), and allows us to identify possible gaps between the upbeat/optimistic projections into the future (of the dependent variable) versus low and/or declining potential. In other words, low and/or declining potential basically tells us that the optimistic future performance of the dependent variable is unattainable, and could also represent misleading or deceitful information. The important novelty of this study is the capability to identify a highly exaggerated outlook of future performance, by utilizing a soft regression tool and the concept of “performance potential”. The process is explained in detail, including the conditions for successful evaluations. Case studies to evaluate expected economic success are presented.
在本研究中,我们引入了一种数据挖掘方法来识别对各种因素(如收入、企业利润、生产、国家GDP等)未来表现的偏见和/或误导性展望。该方法由几个部分组成。一个非常重要的组成部分是建立一个通用模型,其中的因变量是一个被怀疑在某些记录中投射出过度乐观印象的因素。模型中的解释变量被视为代表因变量令人满意的表现的潜力。第二个组成部分涉及评估感兴趣的单个记录(特定国家,公司,生产设施等)的潜力,并允许我们识别对未来(因变量)的乐观/乐观预测与低和/或下降潜力之间可能存在的差距。换句话说,低和/或下降的潜力基本上告诉我们,因变量的乐观的未来表现是无法实现的,也可能代表误导性或欺骗性的信息。本研究的重要新颖之处在于,通过使用软回归工具和“绩效潜力”的概念,能够识别高度夸大的未来绩效前景。详细说明了评估过程,包括成功评估的条件。给出了评估预期经济成功的案例研究。
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引用次数: 6
Comparison of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Models: Analyzing the Steps in the Domain of Websites' Evaluation 多准则决策模型的比较:网站评估领域的步骤分析
Pub Date : 2021-09-22 DOI: 10.1142/s0219622021500590
K. Kabassi
Websites of environmental content constitute an important tool for promoting environmental information, affect environmental attitudes and promote protected areas as touristic destinations. However, these websites have to be evaluated to ensure that they reach their final goal. The use of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) models in website evaluation is relatively new and not many models have been tested for this purpose. Comparisons of such models have been implemented in various domains but not for the purposes of environmental website evaluation. The main objective of this paper is on presenting the procedure of comparison of MCDM models spherical by providing in detail the steps that have to be followed. This process was implemented for website evaluation and investigated the comparative performance of the TOPSIS and VIKOR models. This comparison process involves reliability analysis of the questionnaire and the sample of decision makers, pairwise comparisons of the models by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient and estimation of the Cohen’s Kappa for testing the inter-rater comparability, using the models as raters. Furthermore, a sensitivity and robustness analysis of those models is implemented, which also has not been implemented before in the application of those models in website evaluation. The tests implemented and presented in this paper reveal that the reasonable disagreement that was often observed among the methods did not affect their reliability. As a result, MCDM models proved very effective for evaluating websites of environmental content.
环境内容网站是传播环境信息、影响环境态度和促进保护区成为旅游目的地的重要工具。然而,必须对这些网站进行评估,以确保它们达到最终目标。在网站评估中使用多标准决策(MCDM)模型是相对较新的,并没有多少模型为此目的进行过测试。这些模型的比较已经在各个领域实施,但不是为了环境网站评估的目的。本文的主要目的是通过详细提供必须遵循的步骤来介绍球形MCDM模型的比较过程。将该过程用于网站评估,并研究了TOPSIS和VIKOR模型的比较性能。这一比较过程包括对问卷和决策者样本进行可靠性分析,通过计算Pearson相关系数对模型进行两两比较,并使用模型作为评分者估计Cohen’s Kappa来测试评分者之间的可比性。此外,对这些模型进行了敏感性和鲁棒性分析,这也是这些模型在网站评价中应用之前没有做过的。本文所实施和提出的试验表明,方法之间经常观察到的合理分歧并不影响它们的可靠性。因此,MCDM模型被证明对环境内容网站的评估是非常有效的。
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引用次数: 1
Customer Behavior Analysis by Intuitionistic Fuzzy Segmentation: Comparison of Two Major Cities in Turkey 直觉模糊分割的顾客行为分析:土耳其两个主要城市的比较
Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.1142/s0219622021500607
Onur Doğan, O. Seymen, Abdulkadir Hiziroglu
The vast quantity of customer data and its ubiquity, as well as the inabilities of conventional segmentation tools, have diverted researchers in search of powerful segmentation techniques for generating managerially meaningful information. Due to its noteworthy practical use, soft computing-based techniques, especially fuzzy clustering, can be considered one of those contemporary approaches. Although there have been various fuzzy-based clustering applications in segmentation, intuitionistic fuzzy sets that have the complimentary feature have appeared in limited studies, especially in a comparative context. Therefore, this study extends the current body of the pertaining literature by providing a comparative assessment of intuitionistic fuzzy clustering. The comparison was carried out with two other well-known segmentation techniques, [Formula: see text]-means and fuzzy [Formula: see text]-means, based on transaction data that belong to Turkey’s two major cities. Over 10,000 records of customers’ data were processed for segmentation purposes, and the comparative approaches were presented. According to the results, the intuitionistic fuzzy clustering approach outperformed the other methods in terms of the clustering efficiency index being utilized. The validity of the segmentation structure obtained by the superior approach was ensured via nonsegmentation variables. The comparative assessment and the potential managerial implications could be considered as a contribution to the corresponding literature. This study also compares the effects of the different parameter values used in the proposed model.
大量的客户数据及其无处不在,以及传统分割工具的无能,已经转移了研究人员寻找强大的分割技术,以产生管理上有意义的信息。由于其值得注意的实际应用,基于软计算的技术,特别是模糊聚类,可以被认为是这些当代方法之一。尽管在分割中已有各种基于模糊的聚类应用,但具有互补特征的直觉模糊集在有限的研究中出现,特别是在比较背景下。因此,本研究通过提供直觉模糊聚类的比较评估,扩展了当前相关文献的主体。与另外两种著名的分割技术进行比较,[公式:见文本]-均值和模糊[公式:见文本]-均值,基于属于土耳其两个主要城市的交易数据。为了细分目的,处理了超过10,000条客户数据记录,并提出了比较方法。结果表明,直觉模糊聚类方法在聚类效率指标上优于其他方法。通过非分割变量保证了该方法得到的分割结构的有效性。比较评估和潜在的管理意义可以被认为是对相应文献的贡献。本研究还比较了所提出模型中使用的不同参数值的影响。
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引用次数: 3
Pointer-Based Item-to-Item Collaborative Filtering Recommendation System Using a Machine Learning Model 使用机器学习模型的基于指针的物品到物品协同过滤推荐系统
Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.1142/s0219622021500619
C. Iwendi, Ebuka Ibeke, Harshini Eggoni, Sreerajavenkatareddy Velagala, Gautam Srivastava
The creation of digital marketing has enabled companies to adopt personalized item recommendations for their customers. This process keeps them ahead of the competition. One of the techniques used in item recommendation is known as item-based recommendation system or item–item collaborative filtering. Presently, item recommendation is based completely on ratings like 1–5, which is not included in the comment section. In this context, users or customers express their feelings and thoughts about products or services. This paper proposes a machine learning model system where 0, 2, 4 are used to rate products. 0 is negative, 2 is neutral, 4 is positive. This will be in addition to the existing review system that takes care of the users’ reviews and comments, without disrupting it. We have implemented this model by using Keras, Pandas and Sci-kit Learning libraries to run the internal work. The proposed approach improved prediction with [Formula: see text] accuracy for Yelp datasets of businesses across 11 metropolitan areas in four countries, along with a mean absolute error (MAE) of [Formula: see text], precision at [Formula: see text], recall at [Formula: see text] and F1-Score at [Formula: see text]. Our model shows scalability advantage and how organizations can revolutionize their recommender systems to attract possible customers and increase patronage. Also, the proposed similarity algorithm was compared to conventional algorithms to estimate its performance and accuracy in terms of its root mean square error (RMSE), precision and recall. Results of this experiment indicate that the similarity recommendation algorithm performs better than the conventional algorithm and enhances recommendation accuracy.
数字营销的创建使公司能够为客户提供个性化的商品推荐。这个过程使他们在竞争中处于领先地位。项目推荐中使用的一种技术被称为基于项目的推荐系统或项目-项目协同过滤。目前,商品推荐完全是基于1-5这样的评分,这并不包括在评论区。在这种情况下,用户或顾客表达他们对产品或服务的感受和想法。本文提出了一种机器学习模型系统,其中0,2,4被用来对产品进行评级。0是负的,2是中性的,4是正的。这将是对现有的审查系统的补充,该系统负责处理用户的评论和评论,而不会破坏它。我们通过使用Keras、Pandas和Sci-kit Learning库来运行内部工作来实现这个模型。提出的方法提高了预测的准确性,对四个国家11个大都市区的Yelp数据集进行了[公式:见文]预测,平均绝对误差(MAE)为[公式:见文],精度为[公式:见文],召回率为[公式:见文],F1-Score为[公式:见文]。我们的模型展示了可扩展性优势,以及组织如何彻底改变他们的推荐系统,以吸引潜在客户并增加惠顾。并将所提出的相似度算法与传统算法进行比较,从均方根误差(RMSE)、精密度和召回率三个方面评价其性能和准确性。实验结果表明,相似度推荐算法优于传统推荐算法,提高了推荐精度。
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引用次数: 21
Strategic Study for Managing the Portfolio of IT Courses Offered by a Corporate Training Company: An Approach in the Light of the ELECTRE-MOr Multicriteria Hybrid Method 企业培训公司IT课程组合管理策略研究:基于elecre - more多标准混合方法的研究
Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.1142/s0219622021500565
Igor Pinheiro de Araújo Costa, M. Moreira, Arthur Pinheiro de Araújo Costa, L. F. H. D. S. D. B. Teixeira, C. F. Gomes, M. Santos
The globalization of business and the consequent exposure to global competition, besides the economic and social changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic made the Training & Development (T&D) sector increasingly important for professionals in the corporate environment. In this sense, managing stakeholders and a portfolio of clients, as well as analyzing the relationship between customer and service, are necessary and strategic for the success of professional training organizations. This paper aims to support the strategic process of portfolio formation of T&D courses offered by a company in the Information Technology (IT) training sector in Brazil, through the application of the ELECTRE-MOr multicriteria sorting method. We have obtained a categorization of several courses, aiming to define which ones should be prioritized, maintained, or discarded by the company’s management. The results showed that, among the analyzed courses, only 17% should be prioritized, 61% maintained, and 22% discarded by the company.
商业全球化以及随之而来的全球竞争,加上COVID-19大流行造成的经济和社会变化,使得培训与发展(T&D)部门对企业环境中的专业人员越来越重要。从这个意义上说,管理利益相关者和客户组合,以及分析客户与服务之间的关系,对于专业培训组织的成功是必要的和战略性的。本文旨在通过应用electre - more多标准分类方法,支持巴西一家信息技术(IT)培训行业公司提供的T&D课程组合形成的战略过程。我们已经获得了几门课程的分类,旨在确定哪些课程应该由公司管理层优先考虑,维护或丢弃。结果显示,在被分析的课程中,只有17%的课程需要优先考虑,61%的课程需要维护,22%的课程被公司抛弃。
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引用次数: 43
Strategic Supplier Selection in Payment Industry: A Multi-Criteria Solution for Insufficient and Interrelated Data Sources 支付行业供应商战略选择:数据来源不足和相互关联的多准则解决方案
Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.1142/s0219622021500474
S. Hekmat, M. Amiri, Golshan Madraki
Our goal is to address the complicated problem of strategic supplier selection with interrelated and insufficient data. To achieve this goal, we proposed our Strategic Supplier Selection Methodology (SSSM). First, SSSM formulates the enterprise strategies and evaluation criteria. Then, we developed a novel method called Grey Principal Component Analysis-Data Envelopment Analysis (GPCA-DEA) to evaluate suppliers in SSSM. GPCA-DEA overcomes the major disadvantages and limitations of former methodologies (e.g., DEA) while dealing with insufficient and interrelated data. Finally, SSSM applies Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM) methods to select suppliers based on the ranking score. The application of SSSM is illustrated in the payment industry to select Payment Initiation Service Providers (PISP). For the first time, we considered the payment industry-specific criteria in compliance with the latest regulation (PSD2). The Spearman rank correlation statistical test showed that our method (GPCA-DEA used in SSSM) yields more reliable results than a former version of DEA.
我们的目标是在数据相互关联和不充分的情况下解决复杂的战略供应商选择问题。为了实现这一目标,我们提出了战略供应商选择方法(SSSM)。首先,SSSM制定企业战略和评价标准。然后,我们开发了一种新的方法,称为灰色主成分分析-数据包络分析(GPCA-DEA)来评估SSSM中的供应商。GPCA-DEA在处理不充分和相互关联的数据时克服了以前的方法(例如DEA)的主要缺点和局限性。最后,SSSM应用多属性决策(MADM)方法,根据排名分数选择供应商。并举例说明了SSSM在支付行业中选择支付发起服务提供商(PISP)的应用。我们第一次考虑了符合最新法规(PSD2)的支付行业特定标准。Spearman秩相关统计检验表明,我们的方法(在SSSM中使用GPCA-DEA)比以前的DEA版本产生更可靠的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Decision-Making with Multiple Interacting Criteria: An Indirect Elicitation of Preference Parameters Using Evolutionary Algorithms 决策与多个相互作用的标准:使用进化算法的偏好参数的间接引出
Pub Date : 2021-09-15 DOI: 10.1142/s0219622021500577
E. Fernández, Jorge Navarro, Efrain Solares
Decision-making problems often require characterization of alternatives through multiple criteria. In contexts where some of these criteria interact, the decision maker (DM) must consider the interaction effects during the aggregation of criteria scores. The well-known ELECTRE (ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalité) methods were recently improved to deal with interacting criteria fulfilling several relevant properties, addressing the main types of interaction, and retaining most of the fundamental characteristics of the classical methods. An important criticism to such a family of methods is that defining its parameter values is often difficult and can involve significant challenges and high cognitive effort for the DM; this is exacerbated in the improved version whose parameters are even less intuitive. Here, we describe an evolutionary-based method in which parameter values are inferred by exploiting easy-to-make decisions made or accepted by the DM, thereby reducing his/her cognitive effort. A genetic algorithm is proposed to solve a regression-inspired nonlinear optimization problem. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper addressing the indirect elicitation of the ELECTRE model’s parameters with interacting criteria. The proposal is assessed through both in-sample and out-of-sample experiments. Statistical tests indicate robustness of the proposal in terms of the number of criteria and their possible interactions. Results show almost perfect effectiveness to reproduce the DM’s preferences in all situations.
决策问题通常需要通过多个标准来描述备选方案。在其中一些标准相互作用的环境中,决策者(DM)必须在标准分数聚合期间考虑相互作用的影响。众所周知的ELECTRE (ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la realit)方法最近得到了改进,以处理满足几个相关属性的相互作用标准,解决了相互作用的主要类型,并保留了经典方法的大多数基本特征。对此类方法族的一个重要批评是,定义其参数值通常很困难,并且可能涉及DM的重大挑战和高认知努力;这在参数更不直观的改进版本中更加严重。在这里,我们描述了一种基于进化的方法,其中参数值是通过利用DM做出或接受的易于做出的决策来推断的,从而减少了他/她的认知努力。提出了一种遗传算法来解决回归启发的非线性优化问题。据我们所知,这是第一篇用相互作用标准间接引出ELECTRE模型参数的论文。通过样本内和样本外实验对该方案进行了评估。统计检验表明,就标准数量及其可能的相互作用而言,该提案具有稳健性。结果显示,在所有情况下复制DM偏好的效果几乎是完美的。
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引用次数: 0
Towards Compact Broad Learning System by Combined Sparse Regularization 基于组合稀疏正则化的紧凑广义学习系统
Pub Date : 2021-09-13 DOI: 10.1142/s0219622021500553
Jianyu Miao, Tiejun Yang, Junwei Jin, Lijun Sun, Lingfeng Niu, Yong Shi
Broad Learning System (BLS) has been proven to be one of the most important techniques for classification and regression in machine learning and data mining. BLS directly collects all the features from feature and enhancement nodes as input of the output layer, which neglects vast amounts of redundant information. It usually leads to be inefficient and overfitting. To resolve this issue, we propose sparse regularization-based compact broad learning system (CBLS) framework, which can simultaneously remove redundant nodes and weights. To be more specific, we use group sparse regularization based on [Formula: see text] norm to promote the competition between different nodes and then remove redundant nodes, and a class of nonconvex sparsity regularization to promote the competition between different weights and then remove redundant weights. To optimize the resulting problem of the proposed CBLS, we exploit an efficient alternative optimization algorithm based on proximal gradient method together with computational complexity. Finally, extensive experiments on the classification task are conducted on public benchmark datasets to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed CBLS.
广义学习系统(BLS)已被证明是机器学习和数据挖掘中最重要的分类和回归技术之一。BLS直接收集特征和增强节点的所有特征作为输出层的输入,忽略了大量的冗余信息。它通常会导致效率低下和过拟合。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了基于稀疏正则化的紧凑广义学习系统(CBLS)框架,该框架可以同时去除冗余节点和权值。具体来说,我们使用基于[Formula: see text]范数的组稀疏正则化来促进不同节点之间的竞争进而去除冗余节点,使用一类非凸稀疏正则化来促进不同权值之间的竞争进而去除冗余权值。为了优化所提出的CBLS的结果问题,我们利用了一种有效的基于近端梯度法的替代优化算法,并考虑了计算复杂度。最后,在公共基准数据集上对分类任务进行了大量实验,验证了所提CBLS的有效性和优越性。
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引用次数: 2
Ontology-Driven Multicriteria Decision Support for Victim Evacuation 受害者疏散的本体驱动多标准决策支持
Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.1142/s021962202150053x
Linda Elmhadhbi, Mohamed-Hedi Karray, B. Archimède, J. Otte, Barry Smith
In light of the complexity of unfolding disasters, the diversity of rapidly evolving events, the enormous amount of generated information, and the huge pool of casualties, emergency responders (ERs) may be overwhelmed and in consequence poor decisions may be made. In fact, the possibility of transporting the wounded victims to one of several hospitals and the dynamic changes in healthcare resource availability make the decision process more complex. To tackle this problem, we propose a multicriteria decision support service, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, that aims to avoid overcrowding and outpacing the capacity of a hospital to effectively provide the best care to victims by finding out the most appropriate hospital that meets the victims’ needs. The proposed approach searches for the most appropriate healthcare institution that can effectively deal with the victims’ needs by considering the availability of the needed resources in the hospital, the victim’s wait time to receive the healthcare, and the transfer time that represents the hospital proximity to the disaster site. The evaluation and validation results showed that the assignment of hospitals was done successfully considering the needs of each victim and without overwhelming any single hospital.
鉴于灾害发展的复杂性、迅速演变的事件的多样性、产生的大量信息和巨大的伤亡人数,应急响应人员可能不堪重负,因此可能做出错误的决定。事实上,将受伤的受害者运送到几家医院之一的可能性以及医疗资源可用性的动态变化使决策过程更加复杂。为了解决这一问题,我们提出了一种基于层次分析法(AHP)的多标准决策支持服务,旨在通过找到最适合受害者需求的医院,避免医院过度拥挤和超出医院的能力,从而有效地为受害者提供最佳护理。所提出的方法通过考虑医院所需资源的可用性、受害者接受医疗保健的等待时间以及代表医院距离灾难现场的转移时间,搜索能够有效满足受害者需求的最合适的医疗保健机构。评价和验证结果表明,考虑到每个受害者的需要,成功地分配了医院,没有使任何一家医院不堪重负。
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引用次数: 2
ARIMA Model Estimation Based on Genetic Algorithm for COVID-19 Mortality Rates 基于遗传算法的COVID-19死亡率ARIMA模型估计
Pub Date : 2021-08-23 DOI: 10.1142/s0219622021500528
Mohanad A. Deif, A. Solyman, Rania E. Hammam
This paper presents a forecasting model for the mortality rates of COVID-19 in six of the top most affected countries depending on the hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (GA-ARIMA). It was aimed to develop an advanced and reliable predicting model that provides future forecasts of possible confirmed cases and mortality rates (Total Deaths per 1 million Population of COVID-19) that could help the public health authorities to develop plans required to resolve the crisis of the pandemic threat in a timely and efficient manner. The study focused on predicting the mortality rates of COVID-19 because the mortality rate determines the prevalence of highly contagious diseases. The Genetic algorithm (GA) has the capability of improving the forecasting performance of the ARIMA model by optimizing the ARIMA model parameters. The findings of this study revealed the high prediction accuracy of the proposed (GA-ARIMA) model. Moreover, it has provided better and consistent predictions compared to the traditional ARIMA model and can be a reliable method in predicting expected death rates as well as confirmed cases of COVID-19. Hence, it was concluded that combining ARIMA with GA is further accurate than ARIMA alone and GA can be an alternative to find the parameters and model orders for the ARIMA model.
本文提出了基于混合遗传算法和自回归综合移动平均(GA-ARIMA)的6个疫情最严重国家COVID-19死亡率预测模型。这是为了开发先进的、可靠的预测模型,预测未来可能出现的确诊病例和死亡率(每100万人口中死亡人数),从而帮助公共卫生当局制定及时有效地解决大流行威胁危机所需的计划。该研究的重点是预测COVID-19的死亡率,因为死亡率决定了高传染性疾病的患病率。遗传算法通过对ARIMA模型参数的优化,提高了ARIMA模型的预测性能。研究结果表明,本文提出的(GA-ARIMA)模型具有较高的预测精度。此外,与传统的ARIMA模型相比,它提供了更好和一致的预测,可以作为预测COVID-19预期死亡率和确诊病例的可靠方法。综上所述,ARIMA与GA相结合比单独使用ARIMA精度更高,GA可以作为ARIMA模型参数和模型阶数的替代方法。
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引用次数: 18
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Int. J. Inf. Technol. Decis. Mak.
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