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Predicting Poverty Using Geospatial Data in Thailand 利用地理空间数据预测泰国贫困
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3785116
Nattapong Puttanapong, Arturo Martinez, Jr., Mildred Addawe, J. Bulan, Ron Lester Durante, Marymell Martillan
This study examines an alternative approach in estimating poverty by investigating whether readily available geospatial data can accurately predict the spatial distribution of poverty in Thailand. It also compares the predictive performance of various econometric and machine learning methods such as generalized least squares, neural network, random forest, and support vector regression. Results suggest that intensity of night lights and other variables that approximate population density are highly associated with the proportion of population living in poverty. The random forest technique yielded the highest level of prediction accuracy among the methods considered, perhaps due to its capability to fit complex association structures even with small and medium-sized datasets.
本研究通过调查现成的地理空间数据能否准确预测泰国贫困的空间分布,探讨了估算贫困的另一种方法。它还比较了各种计量经济学和机器学习方法的预测性能,如广义最小二乘、神经网络、随机森林和支持向量回归。结果表明,夜间灯光强度和其他近似人口密度的变量与生活在贫困中的人口比例高度相关。在考虑的方法中,随机森林技术产生了最高水平的预测精度,这可能是因为它能够适应复杂的关联结构,即使是中小型数据集。
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引用次数: 20
Alternative Indicators for Chinese Economic Activity Using Sparse PLS Regression 用稀疏PLS回归分析中国经济活动的替代指标
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3787041
Jan J. J. Groen, Michael Nattinger
Official Chinese GDP growth rates have been remarkably smooth over the past decade, in contrast with alternative Chinese economic data. To better identify Chinese business cycles, we construct a sparse partial least squares (PLS) factor from a wide array of Chinese higher-frequency data, targeted toward variables that are highly correlated with important aspects of the Chinese economy. Our resulting alternative growth indicator clearly identifies Chinese business cycle fluctuations and it performs well both in out-of-sample testing for China as well as when applied to other economies. Using this indicator, we decompose deviations from growth trends into global growth, credit supply, and monetary policy components, and this decomposition suggests that, in contrast to China’s 2015-16 slowdown, the country’s 2018-19 slowdown was mainly due to deteriorating domestic credit conditions.
与其他中国经济数据相比,中国官方公布的GDP增长率在过去10年一直非常平稳。为了更好地识别中国的商业周期,我们从大量中国高频数据中构建了一个稀疏偏最小二乘(PLS)因子,针对与中国经济重要方面高度相关的变量。我们得出的替代增长指标清楚地识别了中国的商业周期波动,它在中国的样本外测试以及应用于其他经济体时都表现良好。利用这一指标,我们将偏离增长趋势的情况分解为全球增长、信贷供应和货币政策的组成部分,这种分解表明,与中国2015-16年的放缓相反,中国2018-19年的放缓主要是由于国内信贷状况恶化。
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引用次数: 4
Overlapping Negotiations, Conflicting Interests? EU-Singapore Negotiations 谈判重叠,利益冲突?EU-Singapore谈判
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3710712
Lachlan Mckenzie, Katharina L. Meissner
In 2013, the European Union (EU) concluded its first comprehensive trade agreement with a Southeast Asian partner. The EU-Singapore agreement (EUSFTA) was meant as a blueprint for further negotiations in the region and indeed it was paralleled by trade talks between the EU and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Given the significant challenges and roadblocks the EU faced in concluding both inter-regional and bilateral trade deals in Asia prior to the EUSFTA, the conclusion of this agreement can be understood as a significant success. However, this success has come at the cost of a shift in EU external relations away from the promotion of its own foundation norms of human rights, rule of law and democracy. This shift has had a deleterious effect on the EU’s legitimacy, founded on upholding these norms, both internally and in the Asian region. As a blueprint agreement, the EUSFTA can be analyzed to understand how this shift in the EU’s external relations will shape the EU’s wider trade policy in East Asia as well as the future of EU-Asia trade relations. This working paper will explore these negotiations and argue that the EU unbundled trade policy from its rights-based foreign policy in the EUSFTA. We argue that this creates significant opportunity for Singapore and other Asian states, but also presents a critical risk to the EU’s foundation norms, which were compromised in the EU’s negotiation of the EUSFTA.
2013年,欧盟与东南亚伙伴达成了首个全面贸易协定。欧盟-新加坡协定(EUSFTA)被视为该地区进一步谈判的蓝图,事实上,与之并行的是欧盟与东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)其他成员国之间的贸易谈判。考虑到欧盟在欧洲自由贸易协定之前在亚洲达成区域间和双边贸易协定所面临的重大挑战和障碍,该协定的达成可以被理解为一个重大的成功。然而,这一成功的代价是,欧盟的对外关系偏离了促进自身人权、法治和民主的基本准则。这种转变对欧盟的合法性产生了有害影响,而欧盟的合法性是建立在坚持这些准则的基础上的,无论是在内部还是在亚洲地区。作为一份蓝图协议,我们可以对欧盟自由贸易协定进行分析,以了解欧盟对外关系的这种转变将如何影响欧盟在东亚更广泛的贸易政策,以及欧盟与亚洲贸易关系的未来。本工作文件将探讨这些谈判,并认为欧盟在欧洲自由贸易协定中将贸易政策从其基于权利的外交政策中分离出来。我们认为,这为新加坡和其他亚洲国家创造了重大机遇,但也对欧盟的基础准则构成了重大风险,这些准则在欧盟与欧洲自由贸易协定的谈判中受到了损害。
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引用次数: 1
Role of IP Due Diligence in Patent Area under Chinese Jurisdiction 知识产权尽职调查在中国专利领域的作用
Pub Date : 2020-09-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3903906
Lishan Ai
With the advent of economic globalization, a growing number of countries have realized the value of IPRs in enhancing their competitiveness in the world economy. Intellectual property protection has become a worldwide concern in terms of cross-border competition. The acceleration in technology development and money-spinning compensation in lawsuit makes patents particularly crucial among other IPRs for a company to compete towards market rivals. IPDD is of great legal importance in terms of listing, M&A, independent R&D and infringement lawsuits. IP assets, including but not limited to patents drive many high technology strategies. For a variety of reasons, too many high-tech companies own patent rights without having an accurate understanding of the true value and real/potential risks associated with their patent portfolios or without initially developing and executing an assessment to thoroughly understand what their patent portfolios will entail. Serious consequences of IP due diligence failures take place again and again. As a consequence, it is of particular importance to conduct specific IPDD based on different needs in different scenarios. From the perspective of patent rights, the IPDD project mainly includes dealing with patentable subject matter, patentability requirements, scope of protection, prosecution of patent applications, and, e.g. enforcement and patent litigation. All these issues find a close match in statutory rules and their court interpretation. Thereby the sight for many issues decisive for successful exploitation of patents, but also all other forms of IP rights, as well as the reasons underlying their justification, often fall short. This applies to decisions such as: whether to invest into a risky R&D project; whether and where to file and prosecute a patent application; whether to exploit a patent in own manufacturing activity, or to use it as a strategic tool against competitors; whether to license or assign a patent to a third party, or whether to take a license, or acquire a third party patent; finally, e.g., whether to acquire or not to acquire a company or to merge with it, in view of its patent portfolio. Taken these into consideration, the main discussion of the thesis includes the discussions on the objectives and limitations of IPDD, the instrument of IPDD and the role of due diligence in different scenarios. The study shows that conducting an IPDD will not only provide a pre-warning of a potential IP infringement but also assist in building up a promising business plan. IPDD can also help a company to determine the nature of IP protection in demand, estimate the possibility of IP disputes, avoid pitfalls in M&A and minimize the damage in the event the infringement established. For China, an IP latecomer, the experience and development of other jurisdictions may shed some light on how to make full use of IPDD in China. However, it is not advisable to transplant the other jurisdiction into China’s legislation
随着经济全球化的到来,越来越多的国家认识到知识产权在提高其在世界经济中的竞争力方面的价值。在跨国竞争中,知识产权保护已成为全球关注的问题。技术发展的加速和诉讼中赚钱的补偿,使得专利在其他知识产权中对一家公司与市场对手竞争尤为重要。知识产权开发在上市、并购、自主研发、侵权诉讼等方面具有重要的法律意义。知识产权资产,包括但不限于专利,推动了许多高科技战略。由于种种原因,太多拥有专利权的高科技公司没有准确了解其专利组合的真正价值和实际/潜在风险,或者没有最初制定和执行评估以彻底了解其专利组合将带来什么。知识产权尽职调查失败的严重后果一再发生。因此,根据不同情况下的不同需要进行具体的IPDD是特别重要的。从专利权的角度来看,IPDD项目主要包括处理可专利性主题、可专利性要求、保护范围、专利申请的审查,以及(例如)专利的执行和专利诉讼。这些问题在法律规则及其法院解释中都有密切的联系。因此,对成功利用专利以及所有其他形式的知识产权具有决定性意义的许多问题,以及其正当性背后的原因,往往缺乏远见。这适用于以下决策:是否投资于一个有风险的研发项目;是否以及在何处提交和审查专利申请;是在自己的制造活动中利用专利,还是将其用作对抗竞争对手的战略工具;是否将专利许可或者转让给第三方,或者是否获得许可或者获得第三方专利;最后,例如,是否收购或不收购一家公司或与它合并,鉴于其专利组合。考虑到这些,本文的主要讨论包括讨论IPDD的目标和局限性,IPDD的工具以及尽职调查在不同情况下的作用。该研究表明,开展知识产权开发不仅可以对潜在的知识产权侵权提供预警,而且还有助于制定有前途的商业计划。知识产权评估还可以帮助企业确定所需要的知识产权保护的性质,估计知识产权纠纷的可能性,避免并购中的陷阱,并在侵权成立时将损害降到最低。对于知识产权姗姗来迟的中国来说,其他司法管辖区的经验和发展可能会对如何在中国充分利用知识产权保护提供一些启示。但是,将其他管辖权完全不加批判地移植到中国立法中是不可取的。中国的知识产权保护制度在许多方面仍有司法实践的发展空间。充分利用IPDD需要在不断的实践中结合中国国情加以完善。
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引用次数: 0
Korea’s Patterns of Trade 韩国的贸易模式
Pub Date : 2020-08-30 DOI: 10.22904/SJE.2020.33.3.004
J. Imbs, Laurent L. Pauwels
Imbs and Pauwels (2020) introduce a measure of openness based on indirect trade. This paper illustrates the differences in the Korean patterns of trade when openness is measured using conventional measures based on direct trade, and when it is measured using this measure of indirect trade, labeled Export Intensity (EI). According to EI, the Republic of Korea (Korea) has been following an upward trend in openness since 2000 and even after 2010. This stands in contrast with most other large trading countries, including China and Germany. We show this is a reflection of Koreas integration with a few partner economies, most notably China. Vertical integration is considerable between Korea and China, in manufacturing and in services alike. The extent of this integration would be invisible on the basis of conventional measures of openness.
Imbs和Pauwels(2020)引入了一个基于间接贸易的开放度量。本文说明了韩国贸易模式在使用基于直接贸易的传统指标来衡量开放程度和使用间接贸易指标(称为出口强度(EI))来衡量开放程度时的差异。据EI称,韩国自2000年以来,甚至在2010年之后,开放程度一直呈上升趋势。这与包括中国和德国在内的大多数其他大型贸易国家形成鲜明对比。我们认为,这是韩国与几个伙伴经济体(尤其是中国)一体化的反映。韩国和中国在制造业和服务业方面的垂直整合相当可观。根据传统的开放措施,这种一体化的程度是不可见的。
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引用次数: 0
Plausibility of Local Currency Contribution to the CMIM 本币参与清迈倡议的可行性
Pub Date : 2020-08-30 DOI: 10.22904/SJE.2020.33.3.007
Soyoung Kim, Woongji Im
Financial support from AMRO is acknowledged. The research was a part of the research project on “Local Currency Contribution to the CMIM.” The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this material represent the views of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) or its member authorities. Neither AMRO nor its member authorities shall be held responsible for any consequence of the use of the information contained herein. We would like to thank an anonymous referee for valuation comments and suggestions.
感谢AMRO的财政支持。该研究是“本币对清迈倡议多边化的贡献”研究项目的一部分。本材料中表达的发现、解释和结论仅代表作者的观点,并不一定代表东盟+3宏观经济研究办公室(AMRO)或其成员国当局的观点。AMRO及其成员机构均不对使用此处包含的信息所产生的任何后果负责。我们要感谢一位匿名推荐人的估价意见和建议。
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引用次数: 1
Have Our First Responses for COVID-19 Eased Financial Markets? Case of the Philippines 我们对COVID-19的初步反应是否缓解了金融市场?菲律宾案例
Pub Date : 2020-05-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3602535
Justin Eloriaga
The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the financial markets of the world. In this paper, we zero in on the Philippine financial markets and determine whether the initial policy responses of the national government and the domestic bourse were able to quell the uncertainty and ease the financial markets. In evaluating the effect of these measures, we consider a simple generalized Chow’s test to determine if key policies and market events were able to significantly affect a slew financial market variables representing the FX market, the equities market, the bond market, and the cost of borrowing. The results suggest that the initial monetary and fiscal actions have been able to ease the financial markets as a modest rebound in the equities market, an appreciation of the Peso, and a lower cost of borrowing and lending have been observed for the period in review.
新冠肺炎疫情给全球金融市场带来不利影响。在本文中,我们将焦点对准菲律宾金融市场,并确定国家政府和国内交易所的初始政策反应是否能够平息不确定性并缓解金融市场。在评估这些措施的效果时,我们考虑了一个简单的广义Chow检验,以确定关键政策和市场事件是否能够显著影响代表外汇市场、股票市场、债券市场和借贷成本的一系列金融市场变量。结果表明,在审查期间,最初的货币和财政行动能够缓解金融市场,因为股票市场温和反弹,比索升值,借贷成本降低。
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引用次数: 0
Reflections on the Key Ingredients for Successful Reform of International Commercial Arbitration in the Asia Pacific 对亚太地区国际商事仲裁成功改革的关键因素的思考
Pub Date : 2020-04-20 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-42974-4_6
W. Gu
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引用次数: 0
Insolvency Issue in Corporate Law: A Reference of Nepal 公司法中的破产问题:尼泊尔的参考
Pub Date : 2020-04-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3570642
Suman Acharya
Insolvency is the important issue of contemporary business world which can be used both in personal sense and corporate sense. However, personal insolvency is little practiced across the globe despite the origin of insolvency from it whereas corporate insolvency is the basic part of contemporary corporate law. So, insolvency law makes global business order possible because the distress company or legal person are liquidated and dissolved by using same techniques, which prevents the company from further deterioration. There can be much effort to rescue company through receivership and examination-ship. Otherwise, insolvency of company through liquidation; both voluntary and compulsory is the final resort. Moreover, bankruptcy is generally used for personal economic distress and insolvency is used for corporate economic and financial distress. Both, restructuring and dissolution are the two part of the insolvency process. So, this paper tries to analyze the insolvency issues in relation with Nepalese insolvency law. Conversely, prevailing insolvency law of Nepal doesn’t deal with foreign aspect of insolvency. It brings challenges because contemporary business and corporate worlds are cross-national and transnational in nature. Thus, insolvency is the result and answer of corporate failure caused by any incidences. It has different point of view i.e. benefit of creditors, business contract, communitarian, economic, accountability, curative, moral and enforcement etc.
破产是当代商业世界的重要问题,既可以在个人意义上使用,也可以在公司意义上使用。然而,尽管破产起源于个人破产,但个人破产在全球范围内的实践很少,而公司破产是当代公司法的基本组成部分。因此,破产法使全球商业秩序成为可能,因为破产公司或法人通过相同的技术被清算和解散,从而防止公司进一步恶化。通过破产管理和审查来挽救公司可能会有很多努力。否则,公司破产清算;自愿和强制都是最后的手段。此外,破产通常用于个人经济困境,而资不抵债则用于公司经济和财务困境。重组和解散都是破产程序的两个部分。因此,本文试图从尼泊尔破产法的角度来分析破产问题。相反,尼泊尔现行的破产法不涉及破产的外国方面。它带来了挑战,因为当代商业和企业界本质上是跨国的。因此,破产是任何事件导致企业破产的结果和答案。它有不同的观点,即债权人利益、商业合同、共同体、经济、责任、治疗、道德和执行等。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing the Relationship between Planning Theories and Affordable Housing Provision Practices in Dhaka, Bangladesh 孟加拉达卡规划理论与经济适用房供给实践关系分析
Pub Date : 2020-03-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3560573
R. Ahasan, Md. Nazmul Hoda
With rapid urbanization and urban growth, Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, is struggling with providing affordable housing for the inhabitants with the limited resources available. This paper examined the role of all the stakeholders and the impact of stakeholder's coordination in the governance practice - whether it is enabling the practice to succeed or failing it. It also explores the perspective of increasing informality and lack of housing in Dhaka city in addition to how the lack of knowledge and power imbalance contributes to that growth rate. The investigation was performed by analyzing the role of laws and regulations (rules and how authorities are using those) that are either encouraging or limiting the availability of formal living spaces in the city. In conclusion, this paper tried to evaluate the purpose of planning and the role of planners in ensuring the stakeholder participation in housing provision, especially for the marginalized inhabitants of the city and how that practice would relate to the contemporary planning theories.
随着快速的城市化和城市发展,孟加拉国首都达卡正在努力用有限的资源为居民提供经济适用房。本文考察了所有利益相关者的角色以及利益相关者的协调在治理实践中的影响——它是使实践成功还是失败。它还探讨了达卡市日益增加的非正式性和住房缺乏的角度,以及知识的缺乏和权力的不平衡是如何导致这种增长率的。调查是通过分析法律法规的作用(规则和当局如何使用这些规则)来完成的,这些法律法规鼓励或限制了城市中正式生活空间的可用性。总之,本文试图评估规划的目的和规划师在确保利益相关者参与住房供应方面的作用,特别是对于城市边缘居民,以及这种实践如何与当代规划理论相关联。
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引用次数: 1
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Asian Law eJournal
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