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The Hazards of Unwinding the Prescription Opioid Epidemic: Implications for Child Abuse and Neglect 解除处方阿片类药物流行的危害:对儿童虐待和忽视的影响
Pub Date : 2020-04-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3582060
Mary F. Evans, M. Harris, L. Kessler
We examine how two interventions designed to curtail prescription opioid misuse, the reformulation of OxyContin and the implementation of must‐access prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs), affected child abuse and neglect. Our results suggest that counties with greater initial rates of prescription opioid usage experienced relatively larger increases in substantiated child abuse and neglect subsequent to OxyContin’s reformulation. We also find larger increases in child abuse and neglect after must‐access PDMP implementation in counties with higher pre‐intervention exposure to opioids. Our results uncover unintended consequences of reducing the supply of an addictive good without adequate support (or alternatives) for dependent users.
我们研究了两种旨在减少处方阿片类药物滥用的干预措施,即奥施康定的重新配方和必须获得的处方药监测计划(PDMPs)的实施,如何影响儿童虐待和忽视。我们的研究结果表明,处方阿片类药物使用率较高的县,在奥施康定重新配方后,儿童虐待和忽视的发生率相对较高。我们还发现,在干预前阿片类药物暴露率较高的县,实施必须获得的PDMP后,儿童虐待和忽视的发生率增加较多。我们的研究结果揭示了在没有足够的支持(或替代方案)的情况下减少成瘾产品供应的意外后果。
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引用次数: 7
Determination of Damages in Medical Negligence Cases: An Overview 医疗过失案件中损害赔偿的认定:综述
Pub Date : 2020-04-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3579272
Dr. Aneesh V. Pillai
Medical professionals are treated as next to God. They provide humanitarian services and gives solace to individuals suffering from various diseases and disorders. Due to their great service to humanity, the doctors and medical professionals are treated with reverence and since the ancient times the medical profession has been considered as a noble profession. However with the passage of time, there has been a change in the doctor – patient relationship. During the last few decades a number of incidents have come to light in which the patients have suffered due to the error and inadvertent conduct of doctors. Due to the increasing conflicts and legal disputes between the doctors and patients, most of the legal systems have developed various rules and principles to deal with such inadvertent behavior of doctors. This has led to the development of a new branch of jurisprudence, i.e. medical negligence. Hence, any negligence on part of the medical professional would be treated as either a tort of negligence or a deficiency in service under Consumer Protection Act, 1986. In medical negligence cases either under tort of negligence or under Consumer Protection Act, 1986, the remedy is mainly damages. Generally assessing damages in case of negligence is an easy task. However assessing damages for the pain and other mental suffering is a herculean task. Generally, in medical negligence case there is an involvement of pain and mental suffering. The damages are assessed on the ground of loss suffered by the patient. Hence in every medical negligence case the patient is bound to prove the loss suffered by him due to the negligence of the defendant. It is to be noted that, under deficiency in medical service case a patient is not required to prove the loss. Thus in such cases assessing proper damages is not an easy task for consumer protection forums. The Supreme Court of India in a number of cases observed that, different courts and tribunals in the country after exercising judicial discretion in determining the amount of compensation in an inconsistent manner, which led to uncertainty and unpredictability, causing anxiety to the claimants and also leaving room for arbitrariness. The Court also emphasized about the need for a framework to identify just, fair, and adequate compensation in case of medical mishaps. Hence there is a need to have an appropriate framework and clear-cut rules to assess compensation in medical negligence cases. This paper examines the different methods of assessing compensation such as lump sum compensation; just and fair compensation and; multiplier method. It also tries to identify the problems involved in these methods of assessing damages and tries to propose a better framework for assessing damages in such cases.
医疗专业人员被视为仅次于上帝。他们提供人道主义服务,并为患有各种疾病和失调的人提供安慰。由于他们对人类的伟大服务,医生和医疗专业人员受到尊敬,从古至今,医疗职业一直被认为是一种高尚的职业。然而,随着时间的推移,医患关系发生了变化。在过去的几十年里,由于医生的错误和疏忽行为,病人遭受了许多事故。由于医患之间的冲突和法律纠纷越来越多,大多数法律制度都制定了各种规则和原则来处理医生的这种无意行为。这导致了法理学的一个新分支的发展,即医疗过失。因此,根据1986年《消费者保护法》,医疗专业人员的任何过失都将被视为过失侵权或服务缺陷。在过失侵权或1986年《消费者保护法》规定的医疗过失案件中,救济主要是损害赔偿。一般来说,评估过失造成的损害是一件容易的事。然而,评估疼痛和其他精神痛苦的损害是一项艰巨的任务。一般来说,医疗过失案件涉及疼痛和精神痛苦。损害赔偿是根据病人遭受的损失来评定的。因此,在每一个医疗过失案件中,病人都有义务证明他因被告的过失而遭受的损失。需要指出的是,在医疗服务不足的情况下,不要求病人证明损失。因此,在这种情况下,对消费者保护论坛来说,评估适当的损害不是一件容易的事。印度最高法院在若干案件中指出,该国不同的法院和法庭在行使司法自由裁量权后,以不一致的方式确定赔偿数额,这导致不确定性和不可预测性,使索赔人感到焦虑,也给任意性留下余地。法院还强调,需要有一个框架来确定医疗事故时的公正、公平和充分赔偿。因此,需要有一个适当的框架和明确的规则来评估医疗过失案件的赔偿。本文考察了不同的薪酬评估方法,如一次性补偿;公正、公平的赔偿;乘法器的方法。它还试图确定这些评估损害的方法所涉及的问题,并试图提出评估这种情况下损害的更好框架。
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引用次数: 0
Partial unlock caseload management for COVID-19 can save 1-2 million lives worldwide 针对COVID-19的部分解锁病例管理可以在全球挽救100万至200万人的生命
Pub Date : 2020-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3575147
Robert L. Shuler, Theodore Koukouvitis
This paper analyzes the stability and usefulness of a human-in-the-loop caseload management method for COVID-19. This can control the balance between medical resource utilization and economic shutdown duration across significant scenario variation. It reduce the total cases by controlling the rate of spreading as groups cross the herd immunity threshold, and suggests late intervention has more effect on total cases than early intervention once containment has failed. Data as of April 11, 2020 show that flattening strategy for COVID-19 in both the world and the U.S. is working so well that a significantly effective removal of social distancing (aka unlock) at any time in the next few years, other than after widespread and effective vaccination, will produce a rebound overloading the healthcare system. For the world, by early April flattening was working so well that a world rebound could be projected in 2021 that would exceed in critical demand even the additional million or so ventilators requested by world governments. In the U.S., whose trajectory is somewhat ahead of the world, the projected rebound of a late year unlock is already greater than the current crisis projected peak. Most citizens are tacitly expecting much sooner rather than much later unlocks. Leaving economies locked down for a long time is its own catastrophe, especially for countries that cannot provide substantial economic aid to their citizens. An SIR-type model was used with clear parameters suitable for public information, and both tracking and predictive capabilities, and an additional simulation of a decision-maker on selected-day partial unlock designed mainly to manage ventilator or other critical resource utilization, to make sure they are neither idle nor over committed. Using certain days of the week, already practiced by some countries, is not a necessary part of the method, but was used in the simulation to give a highly quantified unlock scheme. It also helps restore economic activity. While the model shows total cumulative cases, and therefore deaths, declining initially with flattening, when flattening begins to produce large rebounds the death rate goes back up. Partial unlock to manage critical resources brings the cumulative cases down about 8-12% between now and the second half of 2021, and therefore saves lives with some degree of certainty.
本文分析了COVID-19“人在环”病例负荷管理方法的稳定性和实用性。这可以在重大情景变化中控制医疗资源利用率和经济停机时间之间的平衡。它通过控制群体越过群体免疫阈值时的传播速度来减少总病例,并表明一旦控制失败,晚期干预比早期干预对总病例的影响更大。截至2020年4月11日的数据显示,全球和美国的COVID-19扁平化战略效果非常好,以至于在未来几年的任何时候,除了广泛有效的疫苗接种之外,显著有效地消除社交距离(又名解锁)将导致医疗保健系统超载。就全球而言,到4月初,全球市场的趋平效果非常好,预计2021年全球市场将出现反弹,甚至超过世界各国政府要求的额外100万台呼吸机的关键需求。在美国,其经济轨迹在某种程度上走在了全球的前面,预计年底经济复苏的幅度已经超过了当前危机预计的峰值。大多数公民都心照不接地期待着更快而不是更晚的解锁。让经济长期处于封闭状态本身就是一场灾难,尤其是对那些无法向其公民提供大量经济援助的国家而言。使用sir型模型,具有适合公共信息的明确参数,具有跟踪和预测功能,并对决策者在选定日期部分解锁进行了额外模拟,主要用于管理呼吸机或其他关键资源的利用率,以确保它们既不闲置也不过度使用。一些国家已经在使用一周中的特定天数,这并不是该方法的必要部分,但在模拟中用于提供高度量化的解锁方案。它还有助于恢复经济活动。虽然该模型显示了总累积病例,因此死亡人数,最初随着扁平化而下降,但当扁平化开始产生大规模反弹时,死亡率又上升了。部分解锁以管理关键资源,从现在到2021年下半年,累计病例数将减少约8-12%,从而在一定程度上挽救生命。
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引用次数: 1
Public Health Intervention Framework for Reviving Economy Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Concept 新冠肺炎大流行背景下经济复苏的公共卫生干预框架:概念
Pub Date : 2020-04-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3571775
Jianqing Wu, P. Zha
The COVID-19 pandemic has great adverse impacts on personal life, the U.S. economy, and the world economy. Freezing all human activities is not a sustainable measure. Thus we want to develop a public intervention framework that allows people to resume personal and economic activities. In this article, we examined transmission routes, disease severity, personal vulnerability, available treatments, and person-person interactions to establish a general public intervention framework. We divide people into risk groups, non-risk group and group that may serve as viral transmitters, explore interactions between individual persons within each group and between different groups, and propose interaction behavior modifications to mitigate viral exposures. For the non-risk groups, we identified preventive measures that can help them avoid the most serious exposures and infections that pose higher death risks. The invention measures for the vulnerable groups include prior-exposure measures, heightened protective measures, interaction behavior changes, post-exposure remedial measures, and multiple factors treatments to reduce death and disability risks. The multiple interventions and two-ways defensive behavior modifications are expected to result in reduced rate of detectable infections and lowered disease severity for the vulnerable groups. In this framework, most human activities and economic activities can continue as normal. With time passing, the population acquires population immunity against the COVID-19 virus. Implementation of this intervention framework requires considerable resources and governmental effects while the multiple factors treatment protocol requires the support of health care professionals.
新冠肺炎疫情对个人生活、美国经济、世界经济都产生了巨大的负面影响。冻结所有人类活动并不是一项可持续的措施。因此,我们希望开发一个公共干预框架,允许人们恢复个人和经济活动。在本文中,我们研究了传播途径、疾病严重程度、个人脆弱性、可用治疗方法和人与人之间的相互作用,以建立一个一般的公共干预框架。我们将人们分为风险组,非风险组和可能作为病毒传递者的组,探索每组内个人之间以及不同组之间的相互作用,并提出相互作用行为修改以减轻病毒暴露。对于非危险人群,我们确定了预防措施,可以帮助他们避免造成更高死亡风险的最严重暴露和感染。本发明针对弱势群体的措施包括暴露前措施、强化保护措施、相互作用行为改变、暴露后补救措施和多因素治疗,以降低死亡和残疾风险。多重干预和双向防御行为改变有望降低易受感染人群的可检测感染率和疾病严重程度。在这个框架下,大多数人类活动和经济活动可以照常进行。随着时间的推移,人群获得了对COVID-19病毒的群体免疫。实施这一干预框架需要大量的资源和政府的影响,而多因素治疗方案需要卫生保健专业人员的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Application and Award Responses to Stricter Screening in Disability Insurance 对伤残保险更严格筛选的申请和奖励回应
Pub Date : 2020-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3569683
M. Godard, P. Koning, M. Lindeboom
We examine the targeting effects of stricter screening in the Dutch Disability Insurance (DI) program induced by a major nationwide reform. The drastic 2003 "Gatekeeper Protocol" raised DI application costs and revealed more information about individual true ability to work. Discontinuity-in-Time regressions on administrative data show substantial declines in DI application rates (a 40% decrease in one year), with the largest decline occurring in difficult-todiagnose impairments and less severe health disorders. This resulted in a more deserving pool of applicants. At the same time, those who stopped applying had worse health, worked less, and were more likely to be on UI and social assistance than workers who did not apply in the old system. There are no additional targeting gains at the point of the award decision, implying that changes in average health conditions of awardees were fully driven by self-screening and work resumption in the DI waiting period.
我们研究了荷兰残疾保险(DI)计划中严格筛选的目标效应,这是由一项重大的全国性改革引起的。激烈的2003年“守门人协议”提高了DI申请成本,并透露了更多关于个人真实工作能力的信息。对行政数据进行的时间不连续性回归显示,残障药物申请率大幅下降(一年内下降40%),下降幅度最大的是难以诊断的损伤和不太严重的健康障碍。这导致了更有资格的申请者。与此同时,那些停止申请的人健康状况更差,工作时间更少,而且比那些没有申请旧制度的人更有可能依靠失业保险和社会援助。在作出奖励决定时,没有额外的目标收益,这意味着获奖者的平均健康状况的变化完全是由残障保险等待期的自我筛查和恢复工作推动的。
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引用次数: 6
Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Italy by Dynamical Modelling 基于动态模型的意大利COVID-19流行分析
Pub Date : 2020-04-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3567770
L. Mangoni, Marc J. Pistilli
Epidemic analysis by dynamical modelling is a reliable and insightful way to analyse epidemiological data in order to extract key indicators about the outbreak and to make predictions on its future course. We develop a generalised SEIR model based on Peng et al. 2020 and estimate it on a national and regional level against the data published daily by the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile. We find the inflection point for Italy to have been on the 21st of March, a plausible end date to be on the 14th of May and expect the total number of infected people to be between 155 thousand and 185 thousand people.
通过动态建模进行流行病分析是分析流行病学数据的一种可靠和有见地的方法,以便提取有关疫情的关键指标并对其未来进程作出预测。我们基于Peng et al. 2020开发了一个广义的SEIR模型,并根据意大利民政部门每天发布的数据在国家和地区层面进行估计。我们发现,意大利的拐点是3月21日,一个合理的结束日期是5月14日,预计感染总人数将在15.5万至18.5万人之间。
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引用次数: 22
Fee Equalization and Appropriate Health Care 费用均等化和适当的保健
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3688554
Emilia Barili, P. Bertoli, V. Grembi
Fee equalization in health care brings under a unique tariff several medical treatments, coded under different Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs). The aim is to improve healthcare quality and efficiency by discouraging unnecessary, but better-paid, treatments. We evaluate its effectiveness on childbirth procedures to reduce overuse of c-sections by equalizing the DRGs for vaginal and cesarean deliveries. Using data from Italy and a difference-in-differences approach, we show that setting an equal fee decreased c-sections by 2.6%. This improved the appropriateness of medical decisions, with more low-risk mothers delivering naturally and no significant changes in the incidence of complications for vaginal deliveries. Our analysis supports the effectiveness of fee equalization in avoiding c-sections, but highlights the marginal role of financial incentives in driving c-section overuse. The observed drop was only temporary and in about a year the use of c-sections went back to the initial level. We found a greater reduction in lower quality, more capacity-constrained hospitals. Moreover, the effect is driven by districts where the availability of Ob-Gyn specialists is higher and where women are predominant in the gender composition of Ob-Gyn specialists.
医疗保健方面的均等化收费使几种医疗按不同的诊断相关组(DRGs)进行编码,征收独特的关税。其目的是通过阻止不必要但报酬更高的治疗来提高医疗保健的质量和效率。我们通过平衡阴道和剖宫产的DRGs来评估其在分娩过程中的有效性,以减少过度使用剖腹产。使用来自意大利的数据和差异中的差异方法,我们发现设置相同的费用可以减少2.6%的剖腹产。这提高了医疗决定的适当性,更多的低风险母亲自然分娩,阴道分娩并发症的发生率没有显著变化。我们的分析支持费用均等化在避免剖腹产方面的有效性,但强调了经济激励在推动剖腹产过度使用方面的边际作用。观察到的下降只是暂时的,大约一年后,剖腹产的使用又回到了最初的水平。我们发现,质量较低、能力受限的医院减少得更多。此外,这种效果是由可获得的妇产科专家较多和妇女在妇产科专家的性别构成中占主导地位的地区推动的。
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引用次数: 3
A Statistical Approach to Batched Prevalence Testing for Coronavirus 冠状病毒批量流行检测的统计方法
Pub Date : 2020-03-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3564340
William Berger, K. Dąbrowski, J. Robinson, Adam Sales
As cases of novel coronavirus mount, the ability to conduct expeditious prevalence testing becomes paramount. A statistical approach to batched prevalence testing offers a more rapid and efficient means of monitoring at-risk populations.
随着新型冠状病毒病例的增加,进行快速流行检测的能力变得至关重要。批量流行率检测的统计方法提供了一种更快速和有效的监测高危人群的手段。
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引用次数: 0
Healthcare Openness and Access Project 2020 (prerelease) 医疗保健开放和访问项目2020(预发布)
Pub Date : 2020-03-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3561200
J. Rhoads, Darcy N. Brian, M.D., Robert F. Graboyes
The Healthcare Openness and Access Project (HOAP) is a collection of state-by-state comparative data on the flexibility and discretion that US patients and providers have in seeking and delivering healthcare. HOAP combines these data to produce 41 indicators of openness and accessibility. In turn, these indicators are aggregated into 5 broad categories (Professional Regulation, Institutional Regulation, Patient Regulation, Payment Regulation, and Delivery Regulation), which in combination form the overall HOAP index. In addition, there are 7 indicators grouped under the title “Watchlist�?—variables worth tracking, but not incorporated at this time into the categories or overall index. The indicators, categories, and overall index are all scored on a 1-to-5 Likert scale. Using the data provided on HOAP’s website, readers may adjust the weight given to each indicator to custom-build subjective measures and rankings that differ from the ones presented in this paper. The authors have substantially revised and expanded the list of indicators since HOAP 2016 and HOAP 2018, as well as revising some of the previous data. In addition, HOAP 2020 replaces the previous 10 subindexes with 5 new categories. Therefore, the 2020 rankings are not directly comparable with prior HOAP rankings.
医疗保健开放和访问项目(HOAP)是关于美国患者和提供者在寻求和提供医疗保健方面的灵活性和自由裁量权的各州比较数据的集合。HOAP结合这些数据产生41个开放性和可及性指标。反过来,这些指标被汇总为5大类(专业监管、机构监管、患者监管、支付监管和交付监管),这些指标结合起来构成了整体HOAP指数。此外,还有7项指标分组在“观察名单”下。-值得跟踪的变量,但此时没有纳入类别或整体指数。指标、类别和总体指数都是按照1到5的李克特量表进行评分的。使用HOAP网站上提供的数据,读者可以调整每个指标的权重,以定制不同于本文提供的主观测量和排名。自HOAP 2016和HOAP 2018以来,作者对指标清单进行了大量修订和扩展,并修改了之前的一些数据。此外,HOAP 2020用5个新类别取代了以前的10个子指数。因此,2020年的排名不能与之前的HOAP排名直接比较。
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引用次数: 0
Improving Healthcare with the Help of Blockchain 借助区块链改善医疗保健
Pub Date : 2020-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3555642
P. Johri, Avneesh Kumar
A famous quote says “Health is wealth” and one of the major causes of concern for our society. It is also a major sector that comprises of economy of any country. Since the ages several evolutions have been made in the healthcare industry but there is a large impact of latest technology and trends in the medical industry. This paper discusses that how healthcare system has evolved during last few decades and how can we implement new technologies to improve healthcare systems.
一句名言说“健康就是财富”,这是我们社会关注的主要原因之一。它也是构成任何国家经济的主要部门。多年来,医疗保健行业发生了一些变化,但最新技术和趋势对医疗行业产生了很大影响。本文讨论了医疗保健系统在过去几十年中是如何发展的,以及我们如何实施新技术来改善医疗保健系统。
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引用次数: 0
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