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Astrobiologists are rational but not Bayesian 天体生物学家是理性的,但不是贝叶斯
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1473550421000185
W. Bains, J. Petkowski
The search for biosignatures is likely to generate controversial results, with no single biosignature being clear proof of the presence of life. Bayesian statistical frameworks have been suggested as a tool for testing the effect that a new observation has on our belief in the presence of life on another planet. We test this approach here using the tentative discovery of phosphine on Venus as an example of a possible detection of a biosignature on an otherwise well-characterized planet. We report on a survey of astrobiologists' views on the likelihood of life on Enceladus, Europa, Mars, Titan and Venus before the announcement of the detection of phosphine in Venus' atmosphere (the Bayesian Prior Probability) and after the announcement (the Posterior Probability). Survey results show that respondents have a general view on the likelihood of life on any world, independent of the relative ranking of specific bodies, and that there is a distinct ‘fans of icy moons’ sub-community. The announcement of the potential presence of phosphine on Venus resulted in the community showing a small but significant increase in its confidence that there was life on Venus; nevertheless the community still considers Venus to be the least likely abode of life among the five targets considered, last after Titan. We derive a Bayesian formulation that explicitly includes both the uncertainty in the interpretation of the signal as well as uncertainty in whether phosphine on Venus could have been produced by life. We show that although the community has shown rational restraint about a highly unexpected and still tentative detection, their changing expectations do not fit a Bayesian model.
寻找生物特征可能会产生有争议的结果,没有一个生物特征能明确证明生命的存在。贝叶斯统计框架已被建议作为一种工具,用于测试新的观测结果对我们相信另一个星球上存在生命的影响。我们在这里使用金星上磷化氢的初步发现来测试这种方法,作为在一颗其他特征良好的行星上可能检测到生物信号的例子。我们报告了在宣布在金星大气层中检测到磷化氢之前(贝叶斯先验概率)和宣布之后(后验概率),天体生物学家对土卫二、木卫二、火星、泰坦和金星上存在生命可能性的看法的调查。调查结果显示,受访者对任何世界上存在生命的可能性都有一个总体看法,与特定物体的相对排名无关,并且有一个独特的“冰卫星爱好者”亚群体。金星上可能存在磷化氢的宣布使该社区对金星上存在生命的信心略有但显著增强;尽管如此,该团体仍然认为金星是五个目标中最不可能存在生命的地方,仅次于泰坦。我们推导出一个贝叶斯公式,该公式明确包括信号解释的不确定性以及金星上磷化氢是否可能由生命产生的不确定性。我们表明,尽管社区对一个高度出乎意料且仍然是试探性的检测表现出了理性的克制,但他们不断变化的期望并不符合贝叶斯模型。
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引用次数: 4
A brief history of the term ‘habitable zone’ in the 19th century 19世纪“宜居带”一词简史
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-06-25 DOI: 10.1017/s1473550421000203
M. Lingam
The appellation ‘habitable zone’ in astrobiology in sooth evinces an overlooked and winding history that can be traced back to the 19th century. This paper sketches how this term from geography was generalized to encompass planetary habitability. The people involved in this narrative are numerous, but the bulk of their musings were rather nebulous. Yet, during this period appear the first true insights, although sadly this saga is not altogether sans blights.
苏赫天体生物学中的“宜居带”一词表明了一段被忽视且曲折的历史,可以追溯到19世纪。本文概述了这个来自地理学的术语是如何被概括为包括行星宜居性的。参与这一叙事的人很多,但他们的大部分思考都相当模糊。然而,在这段时间里,出现了第一个真正的见解,尽管不幸的是,这个传奇故事并非完全没有污点。
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引用次数: 2
Conceptual discussion around the notion of the human being as an inter and multiplanetary species 围绕人类作为跨行星和多行星物种的概念进行概念性讨论
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.1017/s1473550421000197
Octavio A. Chon-Torres, C. Murga-Moreno
The current advances in our exploration of Mars have made us think of the human species as a multiplanetary species. However, we have certain challenges before we can truly consider ourselves such a species, especially moral ones. Therefore, astrobioethics would be the right one to examine what it takes to consider ourselves a multiplanetary species. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the meaning and significance of being an inter- and multiplanetary species. To achieve this, a philosophical and critical analysis will be made, using as input aspects of biology, ethics and moral community. We conclude that to be a truly multiplanetary species, more than the technological aspects that allow us to reach other planets, a change at different levels will be needed.
目前我们对火星的探索取得了进展,这使我们认为人类是一个多行星物种。然而,在我们真正认为自己是这样一个物种之前,我们面临着一些挑战,尤其是道德上的挑战。因此,天体生物伦理学将是正确的,它将检验我们如何才能被认为是一个多行星物种。本文的目的是分析作为一个跨行星和多行星物种的意义和意义。为了实现这一目标,将进行哲学和批判性的分析,使用生物学,伦理学和道德社区的输入方面。我们的结论是,要成为一个真正的多行星物种,不仅仅是技术方面,使我们能够到达其他星球,将需要在不同的层面上进行改变。
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引用次数: 0
Communicating extraterrestrial intelligence (CETI) interaction models based on the Drake equation 基于德雷克方程的交流地外智能(CETI)相互作用模型
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-06-19 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550422000404
Reginald D. Smith
The Drake equation has proven fertile ground for speculation about the abundance, or lack thereof, of communicating extraterrestrial intelligences (CETIs) for decades. It has been augmented by subsequent authors to include random variables in order to understand its probabilistic behaviour. However, in most cases, the emergence and lifetime of CETIs are assumed to be independent of each other. In this paper, we will derive several expressions that can demonstrate how CETIs may relate to each other in technological age as well as how the dynamics of the concurrent CETI population change under basic models of interaction, such as the Allee effect. By defining interaction as the change in the expected communication lifetime with respect to the density of CETI in a region of space, we can use models and simulation to understand how the CETI density can promote or inhibit the longevity and overall population of interstellar technological civilizations.
几十年来,德雷克方程已经被证明是推测地外智慧生物(CETIs)丰富或缺乏的肥沃土壤。后来的作者对它进行了扩充,加入了随机变量,以便理解它的概率行为。然而,在大多数情况下,ceti的出现和寿命被认为是相互独立的。在本文中,我们将推导出几个表达式,这些表达式可以证明cei在技术时代如何相互关联,以及在基本的相互作用模型(如Allee效应)下并发cei种群的动态变化。通过将交互作用定义为预期通信寿命相对于空间区域中CETI密度的变化,我们可以使用模型和模拟来了解CETI密度如何促进或抑制星际技术文明的寿命和总体人口。
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引用次数: 1
The Noonday argument: fine-graining, indexicals, and the nature of Copernican reasoning 正午论证:细粒度、指数和哥白尼推理的本质
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550423000071
B. Lacki
Typicality arguments attempt to use the Copernican Principle to draw conclusions about the cosmos and presently unknown conscious beings within it, including extraterrestrial intelligences (ETI). The most notorious is the Doomsday Argument, which purports to constrain humanity's future from its current lifespan alone. These arguments rest on a likelihood calculation that penalizes models in proportion to the number of distinguishable observers. I argue that such reasoning leads to solipsism, the belief that one is the only being in the world, and is therefore unacceptable. Using variants of the ‘Sleeping Beauty’ thought experiment as a guide, I present a framework for evaluating observations in a large cosmos: Weighted Fine Graining (WFG). WFG requires the construction of specific models of physical outcomes and observations. Valid typicality arguments then emerge from the combinatorial properties of third-person physical microhypotheses. Indexical (observer-relative) facts do not directly constrain physical theories, but instead weight different provisional evaluations of credence. As indexical knowledge changes, the weights shift. I show that the self-applied Doomsday Argument fails in WFG, even though it can work for an external observer. I argue that the Copernican Principle does not let us apply self-observations to constrain ETIs.
典型性论点试图利用哥白尼原理得出关于宇宙和其中目前未知的有意识存在的结论,包括地外智能(ETI)。最臭名昭著的是“世界末日论”,该论旨在将人类的未来仅限于其当前的寿命。这些论点建立在可能性计算的基础上,该计算根据可区分观察者的数量对模型进行惩罚。我认为,这种推理导致了唯我论,即认为一个人是世界上唯一的存在,因此是不可接受的。以“睡美人”思想实验的变体为指导,我提出了一个评估大宇宙观测结果的框架:加权细粒度(WFG)。WFG需要构建具体的物理结果和观测模型。第三人称物理微观假设的组合性质产生了有效的典型性论点。指数(观察者相对)事实并不直接约束物理理论,而是对不同的可信度临时评估进行加权。随着指数知识的变化,权重也发生了变化。我展示了自应用的末日论证在WFG中失败,尽管它可以为外部观察者工作。我认为哥白尼原则不允许我们应用自我观察来约束ETI。
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引用次数: 1
Galactic traversability: a new concept for extragalactic SETI 星系可穿越性:河外SETI的一个新概念
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-06-14 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550421000252
B. Lacki
Interstellar travel in the Milky Way is commonly thought to be a long and dangerous enterprise, but are all galaxies so hazardous? I introduce the concept of galactic traversability to address this question. Stellar populations are one factor in traversability, with higher stellar densities and velocity dispersions aiding rapid spread across a galaxy. The interstellar medium (ISM) is another factor, as gas, dust grains and cosmic rays all pose hazards to starfarers. I review the current understanding of these components in different types of galaxies, and conclude that red quiescent galaxies without star formation have favourable traversability. Compact elliptical galaxies and globular clusters could be ‘super-traversable’, because stars are packed tightly together and there are minimal ISM hazards. Overall, if the ISM is the major hindrance to interstellar travel, galactic traversability increases with cosmic time as gas fractions and star formation decline. Traversability is a consideration in extragalactic surveys for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI).
银河系中的星际旅行通常被认为是一项漫长而危险的事业,但所有星系都如此危险吗?我引入了银河系可穿越性的概念来解决这个问题。恒星种群是可穿越性的一个因素,更高的恒星密度和速度分散有助于在星系中快速传播。星际介质(ISM)是另一个因素,因为气体、尘埃颗粒和宇宙射线都会对海星造成危害。我回顾了目前对不同类型星系中这些成分的理解,并得出结论,没有恒星形成的红色静止星系具有有利的可穿越性。紧凑的椭圆星系和球状星团可能是“超级可穿越的”,因为恒星紧密地聚集在一起,ISM危害最小。总的来说,如果ISM是星际旅行的主要障碍,那么随着气体分数和恒星形成的下降,星系的可穿越性会随着宇宙时间的推移而增加。可穿越性是搜寻地外智慧(SETI)的河外调查中的一个考虑因素。
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引用次数: 1
Presence of water on exomoons orbiting free-floating planets: a case study 绕自由漂浮行星运行的外卫星上水的存在:一个案例研究
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-06-08 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550421000173
P. Ávila, T. Grassi, S. Bovino, A. Chiavassa, B. Ercolano, S. Danielache, E. Simoncini
A free-floating planet (FFP) is a planetary-mass object that orbits around a non-stellar massive object (e.g. a brown dwarf) or around the Galactic Centre. The presence of exomoons orbiting FFPs has been theoretically predicted by several models. Under specific conditions, these moons are able to retain an atmosphere capable of ensuring the long-term thermal stability of liquid water on their surface. We model this environment with a one-dimensional radiative-convective code coupled to a gas-phase chemical network including cosmic rays and ion-neutral reactions. We find that, under specific conditions and assuming stable orbital parameters over time, liquid water can be formed on the surface of the exomoon. The final amount of water for an Earth-mass exomoon is smaller than the amount of water in Earth oceans, but enough to host the potential development of primordial life. The chemical equilibrium time-scale is controlled by cosmic rays, the main ionization driver in our model of the exomoon atmosphere.
自由漂浮行星(FFP)是一种行星质量的天体,它围绕非恒星大质量天体(如褐矮星)或银河系中心运行。围绕FFPs运行的系外卫星的存在已经被几个模型从理论上预测出来。在特定的条件下,这些卫星能够保持大气层,以确保其表面液态水的长期热稳定性。我们用一个一维的辐射-对流代码来模拟这个环境,这个代码耦合到一个气相化学网络,包括宇宙射线和离子中性反应。我们发现,在特定条件下,假设轨道参数随时间稳定,液态水可以在系外卫星表面形成。地球质量的系外卫星的最终水量比地球海洋中的水量要少,但足以承载原始生命的潜在发展。化学平衡的时间尺度是由宇宙射线控制的,宇宙射线是我们的月外大气模型中主要的电离驱动因素。
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引用次数: 7
Mars: a free planet? 火星:一个自由的星球?
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-06-07 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550421000161
Octavio A. Chon-Torres
We are witnessing the enormous breakthroughs of space technology, which will eventually allow us to reach Mars. However, it seems that the technological evolution is expanding at a faster rate than the moral development. Are we ethically ready to take human beings to Mars? Will it be a private company the first one that manages to take us there? Should we colonize Mars or leave it like it is right now? Are astrobiological interests being contemplated when discussing human presence in Mars? These are some of the questions that we must answer since the moment of stepping on Mars does not seem to be far away. Therefore, the objective of this article is to evaluate the idea of Mars being a free planet from any of Earth's governments, and to analyse the idea of colonizing Mars considering that by doing that we could seriously endanger native life. What it proposed is that its unavoidable that we will reach Mars, however, we may not be prepared as humanity and this is something that we must face.
我们正在见证空间技术的巨大突破,这将最终使我们能够到达火星。然而,技术进化的速度似乎比道德发展的速度要快。从道德上讲,我们准备好把人类送上火星了吗?它会是一家私营公司吗,第一家成功把我们带到那里的公司?我们应该殖民火星还是让它保持现在的样子?当讨论人类在火星上的存在时,是否考虑到了天体生物学的利益?这些都是我们必须回答的一些问题,因为踏上火星的那一刻似乎并不遥远。因此,本文的目的是评估火星作为一个自由星球的想法,不受任何地球政府的影响,并分析殖民火星的想法,因为这样做可能会严重危及当地生命。它提出的是,我们到达火星是不可避免的,然而,我们可能没有准备好作为人类,这是我们必须面对的事情。
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引用次数: 0
Complex structures synthesized in shock processing of nucleobases – implications to the origins of life 核碱基冲击加工合成的复杂结构——对生命起源的启示
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-05-26 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550421000136
V. Surendra, V. Jayaram, M. Muruganantham, T. Vijay, S. Vijayan, P. Samarth, H. Hill, A. Bhardwaj, N. Mason, B. Sivaraman
Nucleobases are nitrogenous bases composed of monomers that are a major constituent of RNA and DNA, which are an essential part of any cellular life on the Earth. The search for nucleobases in the interstellar medium remains a major challenge, however, the recent detection of nucleobases in meteorite samples and laboratory synthesis in simulated analogue experiments have confirmed their abiotic origin and a possible route for their delivery to the Earth. Nevertheless, cellular life is based on the interacting network of complex structures, and there is substantial lack of information on the possible routes by which such ordered structures may be formed in the prebiotic environment. In the current study, we present the evidence for the synthesis of complex structures due to shock processing of nucleobases. The nucleobases were subjected to the reflected shock temperature of 3500–7000 K (estimated) and pressure of about 15–34 bar for over ~2 ms timescale. Under such extreme thermodynamic conditions, the nucleobases sample experiences superheating and subsequent cooling. Electron microscopic studies of shock processed residue show that nucleobases result in spontaneous formation of complex structures when subjected to extreme conditions of shock. These results suggest that impact shock processes might have contributed to the self-assembly of biologically relevant structures and the origin of life.
碱基是由单体组成的含氮碱基,它们是RNA和DNA的主要成分,是地球上任何细胞生命的重要组成部分。在星际介质中寻找核碱基仍然是一个重大挑战,然而,最近在陨石样本中检测到的核碱基和模拟模拟实验中的实验室合成已经证实了它们的非生物起源以及它们输送到地球的可能途径。然而,细胞生命是基于复杂结构的相互作用网络,并且基本上缺乏关于在益生元环境中形成这种有序结构的可能途径的信息。在目前的研究中,我们提出了由于核碱基的冲击处理而合成复杂结构的证据。核碱基受到3500–7000 K(估计)的反射冲击温度和约15–34 bar的压力的影响,时间跨度超过2 ms。在这种极端的热力学条件下,核碱基样品经历过热和随后的冷却。冲击处理残留物的电子显微镜研究表明,当受到极端冲击条件时,核碱基会自发形成复杂结构。这些结果表明,冲击冲击过程可能有助于生物相关结构的自组装和生命的起源。
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引用次数: 2
Humanity should colonize space in order to survive but not with embryo space colonization 人类应该在太空殖民以生存,而不是在胚胎太空殖民
IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 Physics and Astronomy Pub Date : 2021-05-25 DOI: 10.1017/S1473550421000148
K. Szocik
The embryo space colonization (ESC) concept is an interesting, very rational and quite effective way to guarantee the survival of the human species, as long as the technology is achieved and no unforeseen complications arise during even many millions of years journey to an exoplanet. Despite these formal advantages of the concept, this paper points to a number of arguments against its validity. These arguments revolve around two issues. One is to point out that while the concept of saving the Homo sapiens species is noble and should be supported, the way of saving humanity envisioned by the ESC departs from what should be understood by the concept of saving humanity through space colonization. The second issue is to draw attention to the ethical controversies that make this concept perhaps unsuitable for implementation at all. At least some of these objections do not address the concept of saving humanity by sending adult living persons on space missions.
胚胎空间定植(ESC)概念是一种有趣、非常合理和非常有效的方式来保证人类物种的生存,只要这项技术得以实现,并且在数百万年的系外行星之旅中不会出现意外的复杂情况。尽管该概念具有这些形式上的优势,但本文指出了许多反对其有效性的论点。这些争论围绕着两个问题展开。一个是指出,虽然拯救智人物种的概念是崇高的,应该得到支持,但ESC设想的拯救人类的方式与通过太空殖民拯救人类的概念应该理解的方式不同。第二个问题是引起人们对伦理争议的关注,这些争议使这一概念可能根本不适合实施。至少其中一些反对意见没有涉及通过派遣成年在世人员执行太空任务来拯救人类的概念。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
International Journal of Astrobiology
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