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Correction to: A probability model for estimating age in young individuals relative to key legal thresholds: 15, 18 or 21-year. 更正:用于估算年轻人相对于关键法定年龄的年龄的概率模型:15、18 或 21 岁。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03347-4
Nina Heldring, Ali-Reza Rezaie, André Larsson, Rebecca Gahn, Brita Zilg, Simon Camilleri, Antoine Saade, Philipp Wesp, Elias Palm, Ola Kvist
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引用次数: 0
Insights into dental age estimation: introducing multiple regression data from a Black South African population on modified gustafson's criteria. 牙科年龄估计的启示:根据修改后的古斯塔夫森标准引入南非黑人的多元回归数据。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03312-1
Fabian Rudolphi, Laurin Steffens, Denys Shay, Chané Smit, Liam Robinson, Herman Bernitz, Andreas Schmeling, Maximilian Timme

Dental Age Estimation (DAE) is an effective instrument of the rule of law for verifying dubious age claims in living individuals. Once tooth development is complete, only degenerative dental characteristics can be used for this purpose. The influence of ethnicity on these degenerative dental characteristics has not been clarified.Degenerative changes were examined using modified Gustafson's criteria including secondary dentin formation, cementum apposition, periodontal recession and attrition using the Olze et al. (2012) staging scales. Orthopantomograms of 1882 black South Africans, consisting of 934 females and 948 males, from 12.00 to 40.96 years of chronological age were utilized. Two independent examiners performed the evaluations, with one of the two evaluating all radiographs twice.The relationship between individual characteristics and chronological age was analyzed using multiple regression analysis with chronological age as the dependent variable. The resulting R2 values ranged from 0.22 to 0.35, and the standard error of estimate were between 6.6 and 7.3 years. The correlation with age was consistently lower for females compared to males. The characteristic of cementum apposition emerged as critical in this population, due to a particularly low correlation with age and observer agreements partly in the "slight" range. The formula's values for the correlation with age were in general below the literature values for other populations. Overall, the limited precision of the age estimation by the formulae presented, especially for females, must be emphasized. The question of whether ethnicity per se exerts an influence on the characteristics in question, or whether the different socio-economic status, which encompasses factors such as nutrition and healthcare, is the determining factor, needs to be assessed in future studies.

牙科年龄估算(DAE)是验证活人可疑年龄的有效法治工具。一旦牙齿发育完成,只有牙齿退化特征可用于此目的。退化性变化采用改良的 Gustafson 标准进行检查,包括继发性牙本质形成、牙本质附着、牙周退缩和损耗,采用 Olze 等人(2012 年)的分期量表。研究使用了 1882 名南非黑人的正畸照片,其中包括 934 名女性和 948 名男性,年龄在 12.00 岁至 40.96 岁之间。采用多元回归分析法分析了个人特征与实际年龄之间的关系,并将实际年龄作为因变量。得出的 R2 值在 0.22 到 0.35 之间,估计标准误差在 6.6 到 7.3 岁之间。女性与年龄的相关性一直低于男性。由于与年龄的相关性特别低,且观察者的一致意见部分在 "轻微 "范围内,因此骨水泥附着的特征在该人群中显得至关重要。公式中与年龄的相关性值普遍低于其他人群的文献值。总之,必须强调的是,用公式估算年龄的精确度有限,尤其是对女性而言。至于种族本身是否会对相关特征产生影响,或者不同的社会经济地位(包括营养和医疗保健等因素)是否是决定性因素,需要在今后的研究中进行评估。
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引用次数: 0
Development of a diagnostic variable number tandem repeat marker and dual TaqMan genotyping assay to distinguish Lophophora species. 开发一种诊断性变数串联重复标记和双重 TaqMan 基因分型测定法,以区分嗜栉水母物种。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03318-9
Eun-Mi Hwang, Kyu-Sik Jeong, Seong Yeon Yoo, Jihyun Kim, Sanggil Choe, Joo-Young Kim

The Lophophora genus of the Cactaceae family includes Lophophora diffusa and Lophophora williamsii, which has traditionally been used as a natural analgesic; however, its use is now under strict regulation worldwide as it contains mescaline, a unique psychotropic agent. Recently, non-medical and illegal distribution and abuse of L. williamsii have increased worldwide; thus, effective species identification methods are urgently needed. Here, we identified a new variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) marker in the trnL intron region to identify and characterize species in forensic analyses. The VNTR marker has a unique structure of tandem repeats, each with 13 nucleotides; one repeat unit was found in L. williamsii and two in L. diffusa. Phylogenetic and length polymorphism analyses confirmed that this novel VNTR marker could distinguish between Lophophora species. Furthermore, our newly developed TaqMan genotyping assay utilizes two probes; the color and position of dots on the discrimination plot differ according to the tandem repeat count within the VNTR marker. The limits of detection of the assay were 0.000063 ng (LW-VNTR probe-1) and 0.000066 ng (LW-VNTR probe-2), indicating high sensitivity. Moreover, when crime scene samples of 16 presumed L. williamsii species were analyzed, the results coincided with those of gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, confirming the applicability of our marker for Lophophora species identification. Thus, the tandem repeats within the trnL intron region can be exploited as a VNTR marker to identify L. williamsii and L. diffusa. Our dual TaqMan genotyping assay based on a novel marker demonstrates potential for forensic applications.

仙人掌科 Lophophora 属包括 Lophophora diffusa 和 Lophophora williamsii,传统上 Lophophora williamsii 被用作天然镇痛剂;然而,由于其含有独特的精神药物麦司卡林,其使用目前在全球范围内受到严格管制。近来,L. williamsii 在全球范围内的非医疗非法分销和滥用现象有所增加;因此,迫切需要有效的物种鉴定方法。在此,我们在 trnL 内含子区域发现了一个新的可变数目串联重复(VNTR)标记,用于在法医分析中鉴定和描述物种。VNTR 标记具有独特的串联重复结构,每个重复有 13 个核苷酸;在 L. williamsii 中发现了一个重复单元,在 L. diffusa 中发现了两个重复单元。系统发育和长度多态性分析证实,这种新型 VNTR 标记可以区分嗜桔梗属的不同物种。此外,我们新开发的 TaqMan 基因分型测定法使用了两种探针;根据 VNTR 标记内的串联重复次数,分辨图上点的颜色和位置也不同。该检测方法的检测限分别为 0.000063 纳克(LW-VNTR 探针-1)和 0.000066 纳克(LW-VNTR 探针-2),灵敏度很高。此外,在对犯罪现场的 16 个假定 L. williamsii 种类的样本进行分析时,结果与气相色谱-质谱法的结果一致,证实了我们的标记适用于 Lophophora 种类鉴定。因此,trnL 内含子区的串联重复序列可作为 VNTR 标记用于鉴定 L. williamsii 和 L. diffusa。我们基于新型标记物的双 TaqMan 基因分型测定显示了法医应用的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Sex estimation from skull measurements of a contemporary Japanese population using three-dimensional computed tomography images. 利用三维计算机断层扫描图像从当代日本人口的头骨测量结果推测性别。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03319-8
Yumi Hoshioka, Suguru Torimitsu, Yohsuke Makino, Daisuke Yajima, Fumiko Chiba, Rutsuko Yamaguchi, Go Inokuchi, Ayumi Motomura, Shigeki Tsuneya, Hirotaro Iwase

In this study, we assessed the sexual dimorphism of the contemporary Japanese skull and established sex discriminant function equations based on cranial measurements using three-dimensional (3D) computed tomography (CT) images. The CT images of 263 corpses (142 males, 121 females) that underwent postmortem CT scanning and subsequent forensic autopsy were evaluated. Twenty-one cranial measurements were obtained from 3D CT reconstructed images, which extracted only bone data. We performed descriptive statistics and discriminant function analyses for the measurements. Nineteen measurements were significantly larger in males, suggesting sexual dimorphism of the Japanese skulls. Univariate discriminant function analyses using these measurements showed a sex classification accuracy of 57.8-88.2%, and bizygomatic breadth provided the highest correct prediction rate. Multivariate discriminant function analyses offered the most accurate model using seven variables with an estimation rate of 93.9%. Our results suggest that cranial measurements based on 3D CT images may help in the sex estimation of unidentified bodies in a contemporary Japanese population.

在这项研究中,我们评估了当代日本人头骨的性别二形性,并根据使用三维(3D)计算机断层扫描(CT)图像进行的头骨测量建立了性别判别功能方程。研究人员对 263 具尸体(142 男,121 女)的 CT 图像进行了评估,这些尸体在死后接受了 CT 扫描并随后进行了法医解剖。从三维 CT 重建图像中获得了 21 项头颅测量数据,其中只提取了骨骼数据。我们对测量结果进行了描述性统计和判别函数分析。男性的 19 项测量值明显较大,这表明日本人的头骨存在性别二态性。使用这些测量值进行的单变量判别函数分析表明,性别分类准确率为 57.8%-88.2%,其中颧骨宽度的预测正确率最高。多元判别函数分析使用七个变量建立了最准确的模型,估计率为 93.9%。我们的研究结果表明,基于三维 CT 图像的头颅测量可能有助于对当代日本人口中身份不明尸体的性别进行估计。
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引用次数: 0
Screening a new set of microhaplotypes in exonic regions for sample identity testing and paternity testing during whole exome sequencing analysis. 在全外显子组测序分析过程中,为样本身份检测和亲子鉴定筛选一组新的外显子区微组型。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03326-9
Yu Tan, Huan Tian, Yuanyuan Xiao, Bocheng Xu, He Wang, Mei Yang, Shanling Liu

Whole exome sequencing (WES) is widely used in clinical diagnosis. Before obtaining an accurate diagnosis, it is essential to conduct sample identity testing and paternity testing on trio samples. Currently, there is a lack of optimal genetic markers for these purposes, with limited literature available in this area. Microhaplotypes (MHs) are promising genetic markers due to their high polymorphism, low mutation rate, short amplified fragments, absence of stutter and amplification bias. These characteristics make them suitable for sample tracking and paternity testing during WES analysis. In this study, we screened out a set of polymorphic MHs in exonic regions for the above purposes. The results showed that the power of discrimination (PD) and probability of exclusion (PE) of this set of markers ranged from 0.2682 to 0.8878 and 0.0178 to 0.4583, respectively. Both the cumulative power of discrimination (CPD) and cumulative probability of exclusion (CPE) exceeded 0.999999, indicating the great value of these markers in paternity testing and individual identification in the study population. However, these markers had the effective number of alleles (Ae) values ranging from 1.1784 to 3.8727 (average 2.1805) and informativeness (In) values ranging from 0.0151 to 0.2209 (average 0.0766), showing limited value in DNA mixture analysis and biogeographical ancestry inference.

全外显子测序(WES)被广泛应用于临床诊断。在获得准确诊断之前,必须对三组样本进行样本身份检测和亲子鉴定。目前,还缺乏用于这些目的的最佳遗传标记,这方面的文献也很有限。微单型(MHs)具有多态性高、突变率低、扩增片段短、无口吃和扩增偏差等特点,是一种很有前途的遗传标记。这些特点使它们适合在 WES 分析过程中进行样本追踪和亲子鉴定。在本研究中,我们筛选出了一组外显子区域的多态 MHs,以实现上述目的。结果显示,这组标记的鉴别力(PD)和排除概率(PE)分别为 0.2682 至 0.8878 和 0.0178 至 0.4583。累积鉴别力(CPD)和累积排除概率(CPE)均超过了 0.999999,表明这些标记在研究人群的亲子鉴定和个体识别中具有重要价值。但是,这些标记的有效等位基因数(Ae)在 1.1784 至 3.8727 之间(平均为 2.1805),信息量(In)在 0.0151 至 0.2209 之间(平均为 0.0766),在 DNA 混合分析和生物地理祖先推断中的价值有限。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond the binary female/male sex classification: The impact of (trans)gender on the identification of human remains. 超越二元女性/男性性别分类:跨)性别对遗骸鉴定的影响。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03348-3
L Küppers, B Gahr, S Ritz

In cases of unidentified deceased persons, sex determination is a routine task in forensic medicine. However, the binary biological sex categories 'female' and 'male' may be challenged if it is not clear whether the information in the missing persons databases refers to the biological sex or the (felt and lived) gender. An umbrella term for people who do not identify with their birth sex (which usually is the biological, chromosomal sex) is 'transgender'. In recent decades, the legal and social situation of transgender people has changed in many countries making it easier to live their felt gender more openly. This development highlights the issue of potential challenges in the postmortem identification of transgender individuals. Serious problems in corresponding cases may be rare-but they must be considered and addressed in forensic practice to minimize the risk of delayed or failed identification. The impact of (trans)gender on the identification of human remains was examined by a narrative literature review under special consideration of the prevalences of transgender identities in general populations and in the group of unidentified deceased; possible actions to avoid problems in the postmortem identification of transgender persons in forensic practice are being proposed. One can assume that 1 of 200 people in the United States, the European Union and comparable societies is transgender with an opposite-sex identification, and 2 to 3 of 100 people live outside the typical female/male binary, with numbers increasing. If legally possible, an increasing number of transgender individuals will change their name and gender in civil registration. Transgender individuals are likely to be overrepresented in suicides and in victims of homicides. Although there are no precise data on the prevalence of transgender individuals in the group of unidentified deceased, the remarkably high reported prevalence in the general population and the over-representation of transgender individuals in suicides and homicides suggest that the topic is relevant to forensic practice. An autopsy does not always provide evidence of transgender identity, for example in skeletal remains. Particularly in unsolved cases, the possibility that an unidentified person may have been transgender should be considered. Knowledge and awareness of forensic practitioners on this topic should be strengthened by research and training. Databases and data reporting should be optimized. Recording in antemortem databases should clearly distinguish between 'biological sex' and 'apparent sex /lived gender identity'. When collecting postmortem data, a clear distinction should be made between "chromosomal sex" and "sex based on morphological findings". CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable (review article).

在死者身份不明的情况下,性别鉴定是法医学的一项常规工作。然而,如果不清楚失踪人员数据库中的信息是指生理性别还是(感觉和生活中的)性别,那么 "女性 "和 "男性 "这两个二元生物性别类别可能会受到质疑。变性人 "是一个统称,指那些不认同自己出生时的性别(通常是生理性别、染色体性别)的人。近几十年来,变性人的法律和社会状况在许多国家都发生了变化,使他们更容易公开自己的性别。这一发展突显了变性人死后身份鉴定的潜在挑战问题。在相应案例中出现严重问题的情况可能很少,但在法医实践中必须考虑并解决这些问题,以最大限度地降低鉴定延迟或失败的风险。通过叙述性文献综述研究了(变性)性别对遗骸鉴定的影响,并特别考虑了变性身份在普通人群和身份不明死者群体中的普遍性;提出了在法医实践中避免变性人死后身份鉴定问题的可能行动。我们可以假定,在美国、欧盟和类似社会中,每 200 人中就有 1 人是变性人,其身份为异性,每 100 人中就有 2 至 3 人生活在典型的女性/男性二元身份之外,而且人数还在增加。如果法律允许,越来越多的变性人会在民事登记中更改姓名和性别。变性人在自杀和凶杀案受害者中的比例可能过高。虽然没有关于变性人在身份不明死者群体中的流行率的精确数据,但报告的变性人在普通人群中的流行率极高,以及变性人在自杀和凶杀案中的比例过高,都表明这一主题与法医实践相关。尸检并不总能提供变性人身份的证据,例如在遗骸中。特别是在悬案中,应考虑身份不明者可能是变性人的可能性。应通过研究和培训加强法医从业人员对这一问题的了解和认识。应优化数据库和数据报告。死前数据库的记录应明确区分 "生理性别 "和 "表面性别/生前性别认同"。在收集死后数据时,应明确区分 "染色体性别 "和 "基于形态学结果的性别"。临床试验编号:不适用(综述文章)。
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引用次数: 0
T2-weighted spoiled gradient echo MRI for forensic age estimation: a study on knee growth plates. 用于法医年龄估计的 T2 加权破坏梯度回波 MRI:膝关节生长板研究。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03345-6
Oguzhan Ekizoglu, Ali Er, Elif Hocaoglu, Mustafa Bozdag, Silke Grabherr

The timing of growth plate fusion is a key indicator for age estimation and is primarily used in forensic investigations. On the other hand, non-ionizing techniques such as MRI are being developed to provide safer and more ethical evaluations in forensic casework. This study aims to evaluate the closure process of growth plates in the distal femoral and proximal tibial epiphyses using Multiple Echo Recombined Gradient Echo (MERGE) MRI sequences and provide age estimation data based on staging methods for forensic purposes. We retrospectively analyzed 559 patients (294 males, 265 females, aged 8-25 years) diagnosed with trauma and knee pain at Tepecik Training and Research Hospital from 2016 to 2019. MRI scans were performed using a 1.5-T system with MERGE sequences and evaluated by two observers using a new staging system. Observer agreement was assessed using Cohen's κ test, yielding high agreement values (κ > 0.8). Positive correlations were found between age and ossification stages (p < 0.001). Minimum age thresholds for stages 5a and 5b of the distal femoral epiphysis were 16 and 18 years for females and 17 and 19 years for males, respectively. For the proximal tibial epiphysis, the minimum ages for stages 5a and 5b were 15 years for females and 17 years for males. The MERGE sequence provides a viable method for assessing skeletal maturity in living individuals with significant ethical advantages due to non-ionizing radiation. This study supports the potential application of the MERGE sequence in forensic age estimation, demonstrating high observer agreement and consistency. Future research should focus on comparing different sequences and populations to enhance the methodology's applicability.

生长板融合的时间是估计年龄的关键指标,主要用于法医调查。另一方面,核磁共振成像等非电离技术的发展为法医案件工作提供了更安全、更符合道德规范的评估。本研究旨在使用多重回波重组梯度回波(MERGE)核磁共振成像序列评估股骨远端和胫骨近端骨骺生长板的闭合过程,并提供基于分期方法的年龄估计数据,用于法医目的。我们回顾性分析了 2016 年至 2019 年在特佩契克培训与研究医院确诊为外伤和膝关节疼痛的 559 例患者(男性 294 例,女性 265 例,年龄 8-25 岁)。核磁共振扫描使用 1.5-T 系统和 MERGE 序列进行,并由两名观察员使用新的分期系统进行评估。观察者的一致性采用 Cohen's κ 检验进行评估,结果显示一致性值很高(κ > 0.8)。年龄与骨化分期之间呈正相关(p
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引用次数: 0
An assessment of the Henssge method for forensic death time estimation in the early post-mortem interval. 评估亨斯格法在死后早期法医死亡时间估计中的应用。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03338-5
Fabian Heinrich, Felix Rimkus-Ebeling, Eric Dietz, Tobias Raupach, Benjamin Ondruschka, Sven Anders-Lohner

Background: Time-since-death (TSD) diagnostics are crucial in forensic medical casework. The compound method by Henssge and Madea, which combines temperature and non-temperature-based techniques, is widely used to estimate TSD. This study aims to validate the predictive ability of this method in a cohort of 76 deceased individuals with known times of death (TOD).

Methods: A convenience sample of 76 deceased individuals was examined at the Institute of Legal Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf. The study included individuals who died at the hospital and those with sudden death in public. Exclusion criteria included age under 18, known infection or sepsis, polytrauma, bleeding, and hyperthermia. The TSD interval was calculated using the Deathtime software.

Results: The overall agreement between the actual TOD and the 95% prediction interval for the TSD was 36.8% (95% CI: 26.1 to 48.7). Warm-stored corpses showed a higher agreement (61.9% [95% CI: 38.4 to 81.9]) compared to cold-stored corpses (27.3% [95% CI: 16.1 to 41.0]). Factors such as body mass index (BMI) and body surface area (BSA) were found to influence the odds of agreement. Assuming a plausible range of ambient temperatures between death and admission improved the agreement in cold-stored cases.

Conclusion: The study found low to moderate agreement between the actual TOD and the 95% prediction interval using the Henssge method. Incorporating BMI and BSA could improve the predictive accuracy of TSD estimations. Further research with larger sample sizes and external validation is recommended to refine the model.

背景:死亡时间(TSD)诊断在法医案件工作中至关重要。Henssge 和 Madea 的复合方法结合了温度和非温度技术,被广泛用于估算自死亡时间。本研究的目的是在已知死亡时间(TOD)的 76 位死者中验证该方法的预测能力:方法:汉堡-埃彭多夫大学医学中心法律医学研究所对 76 位死者进行了抽样调查。研究对象包括在医院死亡的人员和在公共场合猝死的人员。排除标准包括 18 岁以下、已知感染或败血症、多发性创伤、出血和高热。TSD间隔使用Deathtime软件计算:结果:实际 TOD 与 TSD 95% 预测区间的总体一致率为 36.8%(95% CI:26.1 至 48.7)。与冷藏尸体(27.3% [95% CI:16.1 至 41.0])相比,温藏尸体的一致性更高(61.9% [95% CI:38.4 至 81.9])。研究发现,体重指数(BMI)和体表面积(BSA)等因素会影响一致的几率。假定死亡和入院之间的环境温度范围合理,可提高冷藏病例的一致性:研究发现,使用 Henssge 方法得出的实际 TOD 与 95% 预测区间之间的一致性为中低。将体重指数(BMI)和体重指数(BSA)纳入TSD估算可提高预测准确性。建议使用更大的样本量和外部验证进行进一步研究,以完善模型。
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引用次数: 0
Fatal road traffic accidents and injuries: a preliminary study. 致命道路交通事故与伤害:初步研究。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03339-4
Alessandro Sartori, Alessia Russo, Andrea Sardo, Dario Raniero

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are a major public health problem globally and cause deaths, disability, and significant economic costs. In Italy, there was an increased number of road accidents, deaths, and injuries in 2022 compared to 2021, although still below pre-pandemic levels. A retrospective observational study was performed on a case series of 53 consecutive fatal RTAs examined by the Section of Forensic Medicine of Verona. The case series was divided, according to the type of victims involved, into pedestrians, car drivers, car passengers, and motorcyclists. For each, the times and causes of death, the distribution of external and internal injuries, and toxicological data were analysed, and the results were compared with those in the literature. Although this is a preliminary study on a small case series and lacks statistical validation, so more cases are needed, the preliminary results seem to provide a useful tool for assessing injuries in complex fatal road accidents.

道路交通事故(RTA)是全球主要的公共卫生问题,会造成死亡、残疾和巨大的经济损失。与 2021 年相比,意大利 2022 年的道路交通事故、死亡和受伤人数有所增加,但仍低于疫情流行前的水平。维罗纳法医部门对 53 起连续致命的道路交通事故进行了回顾性观察研究。根据受害者的类型,该系列病例分为行人、汽车驾驶员、汽车乘客和摩托车驾驶员。对每种情况的死亡时间和原因、外伤和内伤的分布以及毒理学数据进行了分析,并将结果与文献中的结果进行了比较。虽然这只是对一个小型案例系列的初步研究,缺乏统计验证,因此需要更多的案例,但初步结果似乎为评估复杂的致命道路交通事故中的伤害提供了一个有用的工具。
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引用次数: 0
An investigation of the relationship between long bone measurements and stature: Implications for estimating skeletal stature in subadults. 长骨测量与身材关系的研究:对估计亚成年人骨骼身材的影响。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, LEGAL Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1007/s00414-024-03336-7
Elaine Y Chu, Kyra E Stull

The present study introduces new regression formulae that address several challenges of current subadult stature estimation methods by 1) using a large, contemporary, cross-sectional sample of subadult skeletal remains; 2) generating regression models using both lengths and breadths; 3) utilizing both linear and nonlinear regression models to accommodate the nonlinear shape of long bone growth; and 4) providing usable prediction intervals for estimating stature. Eighteen long bone measurements, stature, and age were collected from computed tomography images for a sample of individuals (n = 990) between birth and 20 years from the United States. The bivariate relationship between long bone measurements and stature was modeled using linear and nonlinear methods on an 80% training sample and evaluated on a 20% testing sample. Equations were generated using pooled-sex samples. Goodness of fit was evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Accuracy and precision were quantified using percent testing accuracy and Bland-Altman plots. In total, 38 stature estimation equations were created and evaluated, all achieving testing accuracies greater than 90%. Nonlinear models generated better fits compared to linear counterparts and generally produced smaller MAD (3.65 - 15.90cm). Length models generally performed better than breadth models, and a mixture of linear and nonlinear methods resulted in highest testing accuracies. Model performance was not biased by sex, age, or measurement type. A freely available, online graphical user interface is provided for immediate use of the models by practitioners in forensic anthropology and will be expanded to include bioarchaeological contexts in the future.

本研究引入了新的回归公式,通过以下方法解决了当前亚成年人身材估计方法所面临的几个挑战:1)使用大量当代亚成年人骨骼横断面样本;2)使用长度和宽度生成回归模型;3)使用线性和非线性回归模型来适应长骨生长的非线性形状;以及 4)为估计身材提供可用的预测区间。我们从计算机断层扫描图像中收集了美国出生至 20 岁个体(n = 990)的 18 项长骨测量数据、身材和年龄。使用线性和非线性方法在 80% 的训练样本上建立了长骨测量和身材之间的二元关系模型,并在 20% 的测试样本上进行了评估。方程是使用集合性别样本生成的。拟合度使用 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 检验和平均绝对偏差 (MAD) 进行评估。准确度和精确度使用测试准确率百分比和布兰-阿尔特曼图进行量化。总共创建并评估了 38 个身材估计方程,所有方程的测试准确率均超过 90%。与线性模型相比,非线性模型的拟合效果更好,产生的 MAD 一般较小(3.65 - 15.90 厘米)。长度模型的表现通常优于宽度模型,线性和非线性方法混合使用的测试精度最高。模型性能不受性别、年龄或测量类型的影响。免费提供的在线图形用户界面可供法医人类学从业人员直接使用这些模型,未来还将扩展到生物考古学领域。
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International Journal of Legal Medicine
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