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Agent-based modelling as a method for prediction in complex social systems 基于Agent的建模方法在复杂社会系统中的预测
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-22 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2152007
C. Elsenbroich, J. Gareth Polhill
ABSTRACT Agent-based models (ABMs) have their origins in considerations of complexity science stipulating that many phenomena can be ‘grown from the bottom up’. Explicitly, this was expressed in Epstein & Axtell’s (1996) Growing Artificial Societies as the change from ‘Can you explain it?’ to ‘Can you grow it?’. In 2008, Epstein published an article entitled Why Model? in which he discussed his exasperation with people asking for predictions from ABM, pointing out that many other purposes to which it might be applied are more worthy of consideration than prediction, including explanation, improving data collection, testing theories and suggesting analogies. Fourteen years later, the debate about the predictive powers of ABM is still unresolved. This special issue presents the range of positions on ABM and prediction, tackling methodological, epistemological and pragmatic issues.
基于主体的模型(ABMs)起源于复杂性科学的考虑,它规定许多现象可以“自下而上地生长”。Epstein & Axtell(1996)的《成长中的人工社会》(Growing Artificial Societies)明确表达了这一点,从“你能解释一下吗?”到“你能种吗?”2008年,爱泼斯坦发表了一篇题为《为什么是模型?》在这篇文章中,他谈到了他对那些要求从ABM中做出预测的人的愤怒,并指出,与预测相比,ABM可能应用于许多其他更值得考虑的目的,包括解释、改进数据收集、检验理论和提出类比。14年过去了,关于ABM预测能力的争论仍未得到解决。本期特刊介绍了对ABM和预测的一系列立场,解决了方法论、认识论和实用主义问题。
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引用次数: 0
Visibilising hidden realities and uncertainties: the ‘post-covid’ move towards decolonized and ethical field research practices 发现隐藏的现实和不确定性:“新冠肺炎后”走向非殖民化和道德实地研究实践
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2173427
Oscar Abedi Dunia, Maria Eriksson Baaz, Anju Oseema Maria Toppo, Swati Parashar, Mats Utas, J. Vincent
ABSTRACT This article seeks to move beyond the Euro/North-centrism recurrent in methodological discussions on what we may learn from the COVID-19 pandemic. Such debates often centre on uncertainty and involuntary immobility – aspects which are hardly new for many researchers. In this article, we argue that the pandemic offers an opportunity to rethink research relations between what we term ‘contracting researchers’ in the Global North and ‘facilitating researchers’ in the Global South. Such relations are often marked by rampant inequalities in remuneration, working conditions, and visibility/authorship. Drawing upon experiences in DR Congo, Sierra Leone, and India, we argue that the pandemic increased the dependence on – and highlighted the invaluable contributions and skills of – facilitating researchers, in part slightly refiguring bargaining power. We also propose pathways for change, arguing for a strong collaborative approach and the need for institutional change, without discarding the responsibilities of individual researchers.
摘要本文试图超越在方法论讨论中反复出现的欧洲/北方中心主义,探讨我们可以从新冠肺炎大流行中学到什么。这种争论往往集中在不确定性和非自愿的不动上,这对许多研究人员来说并不是什么新鲜事。在这篇文章中,我们认为,新冠疫情提供了一个机会,可以重新思考我们所说的全球北方的“签约研究人员”和全球南方的“促进研究人员”之间的研究关系。这种关系的特点往往是在薪酬、工作条件和知名度/作者身份方面存在严重的不平等。根据刚果民主共和国、塞拉利昂和印度的经验,我们认为,新冠疫情增加了对便利研究人员的依赖,并突出了他们的宝贵贡献和技能,在一定程度上略微提高了议价能力。我们还提出了变革的途径,主张采取强有力的合作方法和制度变革的必要性,同时不放弃个别研究人员的责任。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of cultural factors and mode of administration on item nonresponse for political questions in the European context 文化因素和管理模式对欧洲政治问题项目不回答的影响
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-19 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2175921
O. Klíma, Martin Lakomý, E. Volevach
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引用次数: 1
Equitable North-South partnerships for ethical and policy relevant research in times of uncertainty: a collaborative autoethnography from Ethiopia 在不确定时期进行伦理和政策相关研究的公平南北伙伴关系:来自埃塞俄比亚的协作性民族志
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2173840
L. Yorke, Jancie Heejin Kim, Belay Hagos Hailu, Chanie Ejigu Berhie
ABSTRACT This paper considers the contribution of North-South partnerships in conducting ethical and policy-relevant research in times of uncertainty. Using collaborative autoethnography, we critically reflect on our experience conducting two related research projects in Ethiopia during the COVID-19 pandemic. We discuss how our research has adapted to take account of changing policy priorities in response to the crisis, how we implemented careful research practices, and which strategies we adopted to ensure providing timely and quality evidence for the governments, schools and parents. Importantly, we reflect on how our North-South partnerships and our close engagement with the Ethiopian government play a pivotal role in overcoming the uncertainty caused by the pandemic and adapting our research to meet the needs of key stakeholders. Grounded in our reflections, we provide a set of guidelines to establish equitable research partnerships in times of uncertainty.
摘要本文考虑了南北伙伴关系在不确定时期开展伦理和政策相关研究方面的贡献。利用合作民族志,我们批判性地反思了我们在新冠肺炎大流行期间在埃塞俄比亚开展两个相关研究项目的经验。我们讨论了我们的研究如何适应应对危机的政策重点变化,我们如何实施谨慎的研究实践,以及我们采取了哪些策略来确保为政府、学校和家长提供及时、高质量的证据。重要的是,我们反思了我们的南北伙伴关系以及我们与埃塞俄比亚政府的密切接触如何在克服疫情造成的不确定性和调整我们的研究以满足关键利益攸关方的需求方面发挥关键作用。基于我们的思考,我们提供了一套指导方针,以在不确定的时期建立公平的研究伙伴关系。
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引用次数: 1
A collaborative research manifesto! An early career response to uncertainties 合作研究宣言!职业生涯早期对不确定性的反应
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2173839
Ned Barker, Aneeza Pervez, M. Wahome, A. McKinlay, Nidal Al Haj Sleiman, P. Harniess, Nikoletta Puskás, Duy Mac, Mohammed A. Almazrouei, Chinonso Ezenwajiaku, A. Isiwele, Nuoya Tan, Michael D’aprix, Athina Petsou, Jake Love Soper
ABSTRACT Social researchers have been adapting methods and practices in response to COVID-19. In the wake of these adaptations, but still in the midst of intersecting crises that the pandemic has exacerbated or shifted (e.g. health-social-political-economic), researchers face a future suffused with methodological uncertainties. This paper presents a Collaborative Research Manifesto that responds to this by promoting markers for meaningful collaborations in future research. The manifesto was co-written primarily through a series of workshops and events that were designed to identify challenges within, and potential for, collaborative research. Through this exploratory collaborative qualitative process, we highlight what the future of such research could look like and describe methodological commitments that collaborative researchers should embody. The discussion draws on wider methodological literature to articulate the key role that ‘collaborative research’ can offer in uncertain times whilst being sensitive of the limitations of our assertive and radical programme.
摘要社会研究人员一直在调整应对新冠肺炎的方法和实践。在这些适应之后,但仍处于疫情加剧或转变的交叉危机之中(例如卫生、社会、政治、经济),研究人员面临着充满方法不确定性的未来。本文提出了一份合作研究宣言,通过促进未来研究中有意义合作的标志物来回应这一点。该宣言主要通过一系列研讨会和活动共同撰写,旨在确定合作研究中的挑战和潜力。通过这一探索性的合作定性过程,我们强调了这类研究的未来,并描述了合作研究人员应该体现的方法承诺。讨论借鉴了更广泛的方法论文献,阐明了“合作研究”在不确定时期可以发挥的关键作用,同时对我们自信和激进计划的局限性保持敏感。
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引用次数: 0
Feeling our way: methodological explorations on researching touch through uncertainty. 感觉我们的方式:通过不确定性研究触觉的方法论探索
IF 3 3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-07 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2173423
Carey Jewitt, Ned Barker, Lili Golmohammadi

This paper argues that methodological uncertainty, such as that experienced by the social research community through the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022) is, and has always been, a vital part of the research landscape. Whilst recognising the many damaging effects of the uncertainties of the pandemic on research and researchers, we home in on the potential of the challenges raised by uncertainty as a force for methodological innovation. We introduce three InTouch project research studies conducted during Lockdown and reflect on the methodological challenges raised by the change and uncertainty of the pandemic. We describe our use, adaptation and reorientation of creative, sensory, and speculative methods to overcome these challenges. We reflect on how we mobilised the uncertain methodological terrain of digital touch and social research in the pandemic as a resource for methodological innovation.

本文认为,方法上的不确定性,例如社会研究界在2019冠状病毒病大流行(2020-2022)期间所经历的不确定性,一直是研究领域的重要组成部分。在认识到大流行的不确定性对研究和研究人员的许多破坏性影响的同时,我们关注不确定性带来的挑战作为方法创新力量的潜力。我们介绍了封锁期间进行的三项InTouch项目研究,并反思了大流行的变化和不确定性带来的方法挑战。我们描述了我们的使用,适应和重新定位的创造性,感官和推测的方法来克服这些挑战。我们反思了我们如何利用数字触摸和流行病社会研究的不确定方法领域作为方法创新的资源。
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引用次数: 0
Consent to data linkage for different data domains – the role of question order, question wording, and incentives 同意不同数据域的数据链接——问题顺序、问题措辞和激励的作用
3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-06 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2173847
Christoph Beuthner, Bernd Weiß, Henning Silber, Florian Keusch, Jette Schröder
As our modern world has become increasingly digitalized, various types of data from different data domains are available that can enrich survey data. To link survey data to other sources, consent from the survey respondents is required. This article compares consent to data linkage requests for seven data domains: administrative data, smartphone usage data, bank data, biomarkers, Facebook data, health insurance data, and sensor data. We experimentally explore three factors of interest to survey designers seeking to maximize consent rates: consent question order, consent question wording, and incentives. The results of the study using a German online sample (n = 3,374) show that survey respondents have a relatively high probability of consent to share smartphone usage data, Facebook data, and biomarkers, while they are least likely to share their bank data in a survey. Of the three experimental factors, only the consent question order affected consent rates significantly. Additionally, the study investigated the interactions between the three experimental manipulations and the seven data domains, of which only the interaction between the data domains and the consent question order consistently showed a significant effect.
随着我们的现代世界越来越数字化,来自不同数据领域的各种类型的数据可以丰富调查数据。要将调查数据与其他来源联系起来,需要获得调查对象的同意。本文比较了七个数据域的同意与数据链接请求:管理数据、智能手机使用数据、银行数据、生物标记物、Facebook数据、健康保险数据和传感器数据。我们通过实验探索了调查设计者寻求最大同意率的三个因素:同意问题顺序、同意问题措辞和激励。该研究使用了德国的在线样本(n = 3374),结果显示,受访者同意分享智能手机使用数据、Facebook数据和生物标志物的可能性相对较高,而他们在调查中分享银行数据的可能性最低。在三个实验因素中,只有同意问题顺序显著影响同意率。此外,本研究还考察了三种实验操作与七个数据域之间的交互作用,其中只有数据域与同意问题顺序之间的交互作用一致显示出显著的效果。
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引用次数: 3
Research practices for a pandemic and an uncertain future: synthesis of the learning among the social research community 2020–2022 流行病和不确定未来的研究实践:2020-2022年社会研究界学习的综合
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-06 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2173842
M. Nind, A. Coverdale, Robert Meckin
ABSTRACT This paper synthesises a large dataset on how social research methods and practices have been adapted or designed for use within pandemic conditions and a climate of crisis and uncertainty. The data were generated through two rapid evidence reviews of the methodological literature and in dialogue with social researchers in online knowledge exchange workshops. The authors apply the concepts of crisis, uncertainty and sustainability to discuss the ways in which social researchers are able to conduct research and make it valid, trustworthy and ethical in times of great challenge for research. The paper provides a big picture of the challenges and the degree of maturity and sustainability of various methodological responses. The authors conclude that some methods are at a critical juncture in their development for times of crisis and uncertainty and that these merit particular attention for those involved in capacity-building for social research.
摘要本文综合了一个大型数据集,介绍了如何调整或设计社会研究方法和实践,以在疫情条件下以及危机和不确定性气候下使用。这些数据是通过对方法论文献的两次快速证据审查以及在在线知识交流研讨会上与社会研究人员的对话产生的。作者运用危机、不确定性和可持续性的概念,讨论了社会研究人员在研究面临巨大挑战时进行研究的方式,并使其有效、可信和合乎道德。本文全面介绍了各种方法应对措施的挑战以及成熟度和可持续性。作者得出的结论是,在危机和不确定性时期,一些方法正处于发展的关键时刻,这些方法值得参与社会研究能力建设的人特别关注。
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引用次数: 2
Whose uncertainty? Learning disability research in a time of COVID-19 谁的不确定性?新冠肺炎时期的学习障碍研究
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-06 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2173425
Sarah I. Ryan, Magdalena Mikulak, C. Hatton
ABSTRACT UK government responses to COVID-19 have intensified experiences of uncertainty for people with learning disabilities. The pandemic has eroded the support people receive, previously weakened by austerity measures. In research, COVID-19 related uncertainty has led to some reworking of methods and intensive contingency planning. This was to fulfil funding requirements and was underpinned by research teams’ commitment to continuing research with people with learning disabilities not despite, but because of the pandemic. This is in a context where people with learning disabilities have been systemically excluded from research participation. Here, we reflect on these processes in relation to a project exploring how to improve the support for older people with learning disabilities. We consider the distribution of uncertainty in relation to conducting research during this time and ask whose uncertainty is attended to in these mid- and post-pandemic methodological debates and why. We suggest pandemic ‘disruption’ has created space for critical reflection allowing methodological creativity and consideration of in between strategies of trust, intuition, and emotion. We caution against the re-constraining of this space, instead arguing for continuing flexibility and creativity, where uncertainties are shared rather than used as a tool of control or dismissal of claims to support.
英国政府对COVID-19的反应加剧了学习障碍人士的不确定性。疫情削弱了人们获得的支持,而此前这种支持因紧缩措施而削弱。在研究中,与COVID-19相关的不确定性导致了一些方法的修改和密集的应急计划。这是为了满足资金需求,并得到了研究团队的支持,他们承诺继续对有学习障碍的人进行研究,而不是因为大流行,而是因为大流行。这是在有学习障碍的人被系统地排除在研究参与之外的背景下进行的。在这里,我们通过一个探索如何改善对有学习障碍的老年人的支持的项目来反思这些过程。我们考虑在此期间开展研究的不确定性分布,并询问在这些大流行中期和后期的方法辩论中,谁的不确定性受到关注,以及为什么。我们认为,大流行的“破坏”为批判性反思创造了空间,允许方法论上的创造力和对信任、直觉和情感策略之间的考虑。我们反对重新限制这个空间,而是主张继续保持灵活性和创造力,其中不确定性是共享的,而不是被用作控制或驳回要求支持的工具。
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引用次数: 1
Causation in complex systems where human agency is in play 复杂系统中的因果关系,其中人类能动作用起作用
IF 3.3 3区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2023.2173845
D. Byrne
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引用次数: 1
期刊
International Journal of Social Research Methodology
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