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The Choice of Migration Destination: A Longitudinal Approach Using Pre-Migration Outcomes 迁移目的地的选择:使用迁移前结果的纵向方法
Pub Date : 2009-10-14 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2009.00523.x
E. Funkhouser
I use longitudinal data to examine the relationship between individual and household outcomes prior to emigration and choice of migration destination. In addition, I have separately pooled data on Nicaraguans in the destination countries. These two types of data together provide a rich description of the determinants of choice of destination for Nicaraguan emigrants. For emigration to both the United States and Costa Rica, patterns of emigration are consistent with individual wage gains. The main finding, though, is that emigrants to Costa Rica have characteristics similar to non-emigrants and that emigration to Costa Rica is based relatively more on the current economic condition of the sender household. In contrast, emigration to the United States is based on the accumulated pre-emigration labor market success of emigrants' households in Nicaragua. These findings suggest that household pre-migration factors may be more important than individual factors as determinants of the location decision.
我使用纵向数据来检验移民前个人和家庭结果与移民目的地选择之间的关系。此外,我还单独汇总了尼加拉瓜人在目的地国家的数据。这两类数据一起丰富地描述了尼加拉瓜移民选择目的地的决定因素。对于向美国和哥斯达黎加的移民来说,移民的模式与个人工资的增长是一致的。然而,主要的发现是,哥斯达黎加的移民具有与非移民相似的特征,而哥斯达黎加的移民更多地是基于移民家庭当前的经济状况。相比之下,移民到美国是基于尼加拉瓜移民家庭在移民前积累的劳动力市场成功。这些研究结果表明,家庭迁移前因素可能比个人因素更重要。
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引用次数: 19
The Power of Exports 出口的力量
Pub Date : 2009-10-01 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-5081
William Easterly, Ariell Reshef, Julia M. Schwenkenberg
The authors systematically document remarkably high degrees of concentration in manufacturing exports for a sample of 151 countries over a range of 3,000 products. For every country manufacturing exports are dominated by a few"big hits"which account for most of the export value and where the"hit"includes both finding the right product and finding the right market. Higher export volumes are associated with higher degrees of concentration, after controlling for the number of destinations a country penetrates. This further highlights the importance of big hits. The distribution of exports closely follows a power law, especially in the upper tail. These findings do not support a"picking winners"policy for export development; the power law characterization implies that the chance of picking a winner diminishes exponentially with the degree of success. Moreover, given the size of the economy, developing countries are more exposed to demand shocks than rich ones, which further lowers the benefits from trying to pick winners.
作者系统地记录了151个国家3000多种产品的制造业出口集中度极高。对于每个国家来说,制造业出口都是由少数几个“大热门”主导的,这些“大热门”占了大部分出口价值,其中“大热门”包括找到合适的产品和找到合适的市场。在控制了一个国家所渗透的目的地数量之后,较高的出口量与较高的集中度有关。这进一步凸显了大热游戏的重要性。出口的分布遵循幂律,特别是在上尾。这些发现并不支持出口发展的“挑选赢家”政策;幂律特征表明,选择赢家的机会随着成功程度呈指数递减。此外,考虑到经济规模,发展中国家比富裕国家更容易受到需求冲击的影响,这进一步降低了试图挑选赢家的好处。
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引用次数: 74
Infant Industry Protection and Industrial Dynamics 幼稚产业保护与产业动态
Pub Date : 2009-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1503419
Josh Ederington, Phillip McCalman
A perennial case for industrial policy is based on the protection of young or emerging industries. Despite a natural association with concepts of life cycles, industrial policy has not been analyzed in the context of an industry life-cycle model. In particular, an important life-cycle characteristic, the potential for very large changes in the rate of net entry, is ignored. In this paper, we demonstrate how the impact of industrial policy depends critically on the entry and exit dynamics within an industry. We construct a model of technology adoption in which the number of firms is endogenous, and derive a set of novel predictions about the effects of protection on firm technology decisions. Specifically, we show that permanent protection can induce earlier adoption, but also decreases the probability that a given firm adopts the new technology. Likewise, we demonstrate that reducing the duration of protection results in faster adoption than permanent protection, but also reduces a given firm's probability of adoption. Finally, we show that, for industries characterized by flexibility in firm numbers, protection does not change the rate of technology adoption but does increase the size and probability of a shakeout (large scale net exit).
产业政策的一个长期案例是基于对年轻或新兴产业的保护。尽管产业政策与生命周期的概念有着天然的联系,但还没有在产业生命周期模型的背景下进行分析。特别是忽略了一个重要的生命周期特征,即净进入率可能发生非常大的变化。在本文中,我们证明了产业政策的影响如何严重依赖于行业内的进入和退出动态。我们构建了一个企业数量内生的技术采用模型,并推导出一组关于保护对企业技术决策影响的新预测。具体来说,我们证明了永久保护可以诱导更早地采用新技术,但也降低了给定企业采用新技术的概率。同样,我们证明了减少保护的持续时间比永久保护更快地采用,但也降低了给定企业采用的概率。最后,我们表明,对于企业数量具有灵活性的行业,保护不会改变技术采用率,但会增加淘汰(大规模净退出)的规模和概率。
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引用次数: 13
Trade, Competition, and Efficiency 贸易、竞争和效率
Pub Date : 2009-09-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1477016
K. Behrens, Yasusada Murata
We present a general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition featuring pro-competitive effects and a competitive limit, and investigate the impact of trade on welfare and efficiency. Contrary to the constant elasticity case, in which all gains from trade are due to product diversity, our model allows for a welfare decomposition between gains from product diversity and gains from pro-competitive effects. We show that the market outcome is not efficient because too many firms operate at an inefficiently small scale by charging too high markups. We further illustrate that trade raises efficiency by narrowing the gap between the equilibrium utility and the optimal utility. As the population gets arbitrarily large in the integrated economy, the equilibrium utility converges to the optimal utility because of the competitive limit. We finally extend the variable elasticity model to a multi-sector setting, and show that intersectoral distortions are eliminated in the limit. The multi-sector model allows us to illustrate some new aspects arising from intersectoral and intrasectoral allocations, namely that trade leads to structural convergence, rather than sectoral specialization, and that trade induces domestic exit in the nontraded sector.
我们提出了一个具有促进竞争效应和竞争限制的垄断竞争一般均衡模型,并研究了贸易对福利和效率的影响。在不变弹性的情况下,所有的贸易收益都来自于产品多样性,与此相反,我们的模型允许产品多样性收益和促进竞争效应收益之间的福利分解。我们证明了市场结果不是有效的,因为太多的公司通过收取过高的加成,以低效率的小规模经营。我们进一步说明,贸易通过缩小均衡效用和最优效用之间的差距来提高效率。在一体化经济中,当人口达到任意大时,由于竞争限制,均衡效用收敛于最优效用。最后,我们将变弹性模型推广到多部门环境,并证明部门间扭曲在极限条件下被消除。多部门模型使我们能够说明部门间和部门内分配产生的一些新方面,即贸易导致结构趋同,而不是部门专业化,贸易导致非贸易部门的国内退出。
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引用次数: 54
ISO 9000: New Form of Protectionism or Common Language in International Trade? iso9000:保护主义的新形式还是国际贸易的通用语言?
Pub Date : 2009-09-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1476290
Joseph A. Clougherty, M. Grajek
International standards have the potential to both promote and hinder international trade. Yet empirical scholarship on the standards-trade relationship has been held up due to some methodological challenges: measurement problems, varied effects, and endogeneity concerns. We are able to surmount these challenges while considering the impact of one particular standard on the country-pair trade flows between 91 nations over the 1995-2005 period. To deal with these challenges, we measure the degree of standardization via the penetration of ISO 9000 in individual nations, allow ISO diffusion to manifest via multiple (quality-signaling, information/compliance-cost, and common-language) effects, and use instrumental variable and panel data techniques to overcome endogeneity concerns. We find strong evidence in support of ISO 9000 involving a common-language effect that enhances country-pair trade; yet, the evidence is more mixed with regard to the quality-signaling and information/compliance-cost effects. While we find ISO-rich nations (most notably European) to clearly benefit from the worldwide diffusion of standardization, ISO 9000 represents a de facto trade barrier for nations (e.g., the US and Mexico) lagging behind in terms of adoption.
国际标准既可能促进国际贸易,也可能阻碍国际贸易。然而,由于一些方法上的挑战,关于标准与贸易关系的实证研究一直受到阻碍:测量问题、不同的影响和内生性问题。我们能够克服这些挑战,同时考虑一个特定标准对1995-2005年期间91个国家之间的国对贸易流量的影响。为了应对这些挑战,我们通过ISO 9000在各个国家的渗透来衡量标准化程度,允许ISO扩散通过多重(质量信号,信息/合规-成本和共同语言)效应表现出来,并使用工具变量和面板数据技术来克服内质性问题。我们发现强有力的证据支持iso9000涉及共同语言效应,促进国家对贸易;然而,关于质量-信号和信息/遵守-成本效应的证据更加复杂。虽然我们发现拥有ISO标准的国家(尤其是欧洲国家)明显受益于全球范围内标准化的传播,但对于那些在采用方面落后的国家(如美国和墨西哥)来说,ISO 9000实际上是一种贸易壁垒。
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引用次数: 5
Freight Rates and the Margins of Intra-Latin American Maritime Trade 运费率和拉丁美洲内部海上贸易的边际
Pub Date : 2009-09-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1471374
I. Martínez‐Zarzoso, G. Wilmsmeier
This paper focuses on the analysis of the relationship between maritime trade and transport cost in Latin America. The data available are disaggregated (SITC 5 digit level) maritime trade flows on trade routes within Latin America over the period 1999-2004. The contribution to the literature is to disentangle the effects that transport costs have on the extensive margin (number of products imported) and the intensive margin (quantity imported of each product) of international trade in order to test some of the predictions of the trade theories that introduce firm heterogeneity in productivity, as well as fixed costs of exporting. Recent investigations show that spatial frictions (distance) reduce trade mainly by reducing the number of shipments and that most firms ship only to geographically proximate customers, instead of shipping to many destinations in quantities that decrease in distance. Our findings confirm this result for intra-LA trade and show that the opposite pattern is observed for ad-valorem freight rates that reduce aggregate trade values mainly by reducing the quantity imported (intensive margin).
本文着重分析了拉丁美洲海上贸易与运输成本之间的关系。现有数据是1999-2004年期间拉丁美洲贸易航线上的分类(SITC 5位数水平)海上贸易流量。对文献的贡献是解开运输成本对国际贸易的广泛边际(进口产品的数量)和密集边际(每种产品的进口数量)的影响,以检验引入企业生产率异质性的贸易理论的一些预测,以及出口的固定成本。最近的调查表明,空间摩擦(距离)主要通过减少发货数量来减少贸易,而且大多数公司只向地理上接近的客户发货,而不是向许多目的地发货,数量随着距离的减少而减少。我们的研究结果证实了洛杉矶内部贸易的这一结果,并表明从价运价观察到相反的模式,主要通过减少进口数量(密集边际)来减少总贸易价值。
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引用次数: 3
Asymmetric Country Customs Union Formation 不对称国家关税同盟的形成
Pub Date : 2009-09-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1467840
Xin Zhao, Baomin Dong
Using an N-heterogeneous-country Cournot intra-industry model with three dimensions of heterogeneity considered: i.e., marginal cost of production, market size, and industry concentration, the current paper shows that even under open regionalism regime, in contrast with Yi (1996), global free trade may not be attained via the expansion of customs union. The paper also characterizes the endogenous custom union formation path. When countries are farsightedly rational, customs union can serve as a stepping stone for multilateral liberalization.
本文使用考虑了三个异质性维度(即边际生产成本、市场规模和产业集中度)的n异质国家古诺产业内模型,表明即使在开放的区域主义制度下,与Yi(1996)相比,全球自由贸易也可能无法通过扩大关税同盟来实现。本文还描述了内生的定制联盟形成路径。当各国具有远见和理性时,关税同盟可以成为多边自由化的垫脚石。
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引用次数: 0
Trade and Welfare: Does Industrial Organization Matter 贸易与福利:产业组织重要吗
Pub Date : 2009-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1479612
Edward J. Balistreri, Russell Hillberry, T. Rutherford
Many contemporary theoretic studies of trade over geography reduce to an examination of constant-elasticity reactions to changes in iceberg trade costs. These impacts are readily analyzed in simple constant-returns models based on the Armington (1969) assumption of regionally differentiated goods. Following the line of reasoning suggested by Arkolakis et al. (2008) one can reach the surprising conclusion that industrial organization does not matter. In the present paper, we show that this finding is fragile, and with a minor elaboration of their model, the rich industrial-organization features of the popular Melitz (2003) model do, in fact, generate important differences for trade and welfare.
许多关于地理贸易的当代理论研究都归结为对冰山贸易成本变化的恒弹性反应的考察。这些影响很容易在基于阿明顿(1969)区域差异化商品假设的简单不变回报模型中进行分析。按照Arkolakis et al.(2008)提出的推理思路,我们可以得出令人惊讶的结论:产业组织并不重要。在本文中,我们表明这一发现是脆弱的,并且通过对其模型的少量阐述,流行的Melitz(2003)模型中丰富的产业组织特征实际上确实对贸易和福利产生了重要的差异。
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引用次数: 40
Export Prices across Firms and Destinations 跨公司和目的地的出口价格
Pub Date : 2009-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/QJE/QJR051
Kalina B. Manova, Zhiwei Zhang
This paper establishes six stylized facts about firms' export prices using detailed customs data on the universe of Chinese trade flows. First, across firms selling a given product, exporters that charge higher prices earn greater revenues in each destination, have bigger worldwide sales, and enter more markets. Second, firms that export more, that enter more markets and that charge higher export prices import more expensive inputs. Third, across destinations within a firm-product, firms set higher prices in richer, larger, bilaterally more distant and overall less remote countries. Fourth, across destinations within a firm-product, firms earn bigger revenues in markets where they set higher prices. Fifth, across firms within a product, exporters with more destinations offer a wider range of export prices. Finally, firms that export more, that enter more markets and that offer a wider range of export prices pay a wider range of input prices and source inputs from more origin countries. We propose that trade models should incorporate two features to rationalize these patterns in the data: more successful exporters use higher-quality inputs to produce higher-quality goods (stylized facts 1 and 2), and firms vary the quality of their products across destinations by using inputs of different quality levels (stylized facts 3, 4, 5 and 6).
本文利用中国贸易流动的详细海关数据,建立了有关企业出口价格的六个程式化事实。首先,在销售特定产品的公司中,出口商在每个目的地收取更高的价格,获得更高的收入,在全球范围内拥有更大的销售额,并进入更多的市场。其次,出口更多、进入更多市场、收取更高出口价格的公司进口更昂贵的投入。第三,在一个公司产品的各个目的地,公司在更富裕、更大、双边距离更远、总体上不那么遥远的国家设定更高的价格。第四,在一个公司产品的各个目的地,公司在其定价较高的市场中获得更大的收入。第五,在同一产品的各个公司中,目的地更多的出口商提供的出口价格范围更广。最后,出口更多、进入更多市场、提供更大范围出口价格的公司支付的投入价格范围更大,并从更多原产国采购投入。我们建议贸易模型应该包含两个特征来合理化数据中的这些模式:更成功的出口商使用更高质量的投入来生产更高质量的产品(程式化事实1和2),公司通过使用不同质量水平的投入来改变不同目的地的产品质量(程式化事实3、4、5和6)。
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引用次数: 758
Multipliers of the Peruvian Economy 2002 2002年秘鲁经济乘数
Pub Date : 2009-09-01 DOI: 10.7835/JCC-BERJ-2009-0030
J. Torres-Zorrilla
This article illustrates an application of the input-output model to estimate the multiplier effects of investments and exports of the Peruvian economy. One conclusion is that multipliers of services are greater than multipliers of industries while primary products exhibit intermediate multipliers. Another conclusion is that exports reflect a much higher multiplier effect than do investments. Employment and wage multipliers appear greater for service sectors than for modern exporting sectors, such as mining and metallurgy, and for modern urban sectors, such as electricity, insurance, construction, and beverages.
本文说明了如何运用投入产出模型来估计秘鲁经济的投资和出口的乘数效应。一个结论是,服务业乘数大于工业乘数,而初级产品表现出中间乘数。另一个结论是,出口反映的乘数效应比投资高得多。服务部门的就业和工资乘数似乎大于现代出口部门(如采矿和冶金)和现代城市部门(如电力、保险、建筑和饮料)。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Trade
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