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Strategic Options for SMEs in Steel Sector in Post WTO Era: An Empirical Study in the Indian Context 后WTO时代钢铁行业中小企业的战略选择:基于印度背景的实证研究
Pub Date : 2009-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1465087
G. Popli, D. Rao
Small and Medium Enterprises have been globally recognized as vital components of a domestic economy and major contributors to employment generation in a country, regardless of global barriers. SMEs form the lifeblood of any vibrant economy. In an emerging economy like India, SMEs have a significant socio-economic role to ensure overall development of the nation.Steel Sector is an important and booming sector in India. The Indian Steel Industry is undergoing transformation due to the new economic policy and business environment in the post WTO regime. With the delicensing of the entire steel industry and the removal of the restrictions on foreign investments, almost all the important global players have entered in the Indian Industry. It has still a huge scope for either direct entry or through collaborations with the local companies.This paper examines the problems, strategies for investments, competency development, technological up gradation, quality improvement, Govt. Policies, Equity participation by MNCs and overall improvement of this sector in the post WTO regime. The study has been done by using data acquired from an extensive survey of Indian SMEs in the Steel Sector and from the experienced Bankers/ Officials/Policy makers of Govt. of India.
中小型企业在全球范围内被认为是国内经济的重要组成部分,是一个国家创造就业机会的主要贡献者,无论全球壁垒如何。中小企业是任何充满活力的经济体的命脉。在印度这样的新兴经济体中,中小企业在确保国家整体发展方面发挥着重要的社会经济作用。钢铁行业是印度一个重要且蓬勃发展的行业。由于新的经济政策和后世贸组织制度下的商业环境,印度钢铁工业正在经历转型。随着整个钢铁行业的放宽和对外国投资限制的取消,几乎所有重要的全球参与者都进入了印度工业。无论是直接进入还是通过与当地公司合作,它仍然有很大的空间。本文探讨了问题、投资策略、能力发展、技术升级、质量改进、政府政策、跨国公司股权参与以及后WTO体制下该部门的整体改善。这项研究是通过对印度钢铁行业中小企业的广泛调查以及印度政府经验丰富的银行家/官员/政策制定者获得的数据完成的。
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引用次数: 1
The Weight of Economic and Commercial Diplomacy 经济和商业外交的重要性
Pub Date : 2009-08-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1469137
Mina Yakop, Peter A. G. van Bergeijk
This paper investigates the impact of economic and commercial diplomacy on the geography of international trade. We replicate a recent study by Rose (2007) extending the analysis to include the year 2006 and 63 importing and exporting countries. Using a gravity model we are able to demonstrate that diplomatic representation via embassies and consulates is not a relevant trade enhancing factor for trade within the OECD. In contrast diplomatic representation is significant in bilateral trade relationships of developing countries as it both facilitates imports and stimulates exports. We discuss some implications of our findings for developing countries especially in view of South--South trade.
本文研究了经济外交和商业外交对国际贸易地理学的影响。我们复制了Rose(2007)最近的一项研究,将分析扩展到包括2006年和63个进出口国家。使用重力模型,我们能够证明,通过大使馆和领事馆的外交代表不是经合组织内部贸易的相关贸易促进因素。相比之下,外交代表在发展中国家的双边贸易关系中具有重要意义,因为它既促进了进口,又刺激了出口。我们讨论了我们的研究结果对发展中国家的一些影响,特别是考虑到南南贸易。
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引用次数: 25
Trade Complexity and Productivity 贸易复杂性与生产力
Pub Date : 2009-08-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1463198
G. Békés, C. Altomonte
We exploit a panel dataset of Hungarian firms merged with product-level trade data for the period 1992-2003 to investigate the relation between firms' trading activities (importing, exporting or both) and productivity. We find important self-selection effects of the most productive firms induced by the existence of heterogeneous sunk costs of trade, for both importers and exporters. We relate these sunk costs of trade to the relationship-specific nature of the trade activities, entailing a certain degree of technological and organizational complexity. We also show that, to the extent that imports and exports are correlated within firms, failing to control for the importing activity leads to overstated average productivity premia of exporters.
我们利用匈牙利公司的面板数据集与1992-2003年期间的产品级贸易数据合并,以调查公司的贸易活动(进口,出口或两者)与生产率之间的关系。我们发现,对于进口商和出口商而言,异质性贸易沉没成本的存在导致了最具生产力的企业的重要自我选择效应。我们将这些贸易沉没成本与贸易活动的特定关系性质联系起来,其中包含一定程度的技术和组织复杂性。我们还表明,在某种程度上,进口和出口在企业内部是相关的,未能控制进口活动导致出口商的平均生产率溢价过高。
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引用次数: 89
The General Theory of Trade Relativity 广义贸易相对论
Pub Date : 2009-08-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1462716
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada
This paper is interested to apply the general theory of relativity develop by Albert Einstein (1916) into the analysis of international trade. We like to use this great theory of physics to explain the behavior of international trade among nations, at the same time, how a large country with a constant expansion of its economic mass (Ð) can generate a strong trade gravity attraction around it with the traditional trade partners and possible new trade partners. It is possible to be observed in the case of U.S. and China economy. Finally, we like to probe also if trade blocs request at less one of its member need to have a large economic mass (Ð) to generate a strong trade gravity to attract the rest of members into the same trade bloc, we suggest the uses of two trade blocs follow by NAFTA and ASEAN.
本文对运用爱因斯坦(1916)提出的广义相对论来分析国际贸易很感兴趣。我们喜欢用这个伟大的物理理论来解释国家间的国际贸易行为,同时,一个经济规模不断扩大的大国(Ð)如何与传统贸易伙伴和可能的新贸易伙伴产生强大的贸易引力。从美国和中国经济的情况可以看出这一点。最后,我们还想探讨,如果贸易集团要求其成员中至少有一个需要拥有庞大的经济体量(Ð)来产生强大的贸易引力,以吸引其他成员加入同一贸易集团,我们建议使用两个贸易集团,其次是北美自由贸易协定和东盟。
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引用次数: 0
The GATT and its Challenges at 60 关贸总协定60周年及其挑战
Pub Date : 2009-08-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1462341
F. Ortino
The importance of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), concluded in Geneva on 30 October 1947, applied on a provisional basis from January 1948 until December 1994 and reincarnated since the establishment of the WTO in 1995 in the GATT 1994, cannot be overstated. As it functioned as the major international ‘agreement’ and ‘institution’ at the heart of the multilateral trading system, the GATT accomplished much of its original mandate: the substantial reduction of tariffs and other barriers to trade and the elimination of discriminatory treatment in international commerce.Scholars have described the GATT 1994 as an ‘incomplete contract’ for at least three sets of reasons. First, the GATT 1994 directly binds only certain trade policies, leaving WTO Members significant discretion over domestic regulatory and fiscal policies with a potentially high trade impact. Second, the GATT 1994 employs vaguely worded provisions, leaving the determination of the actual meaning of the agreement subject to adjudication or to further treaty negotiations. Third, the GATT 1994 includes more or less explicitly an ambitious built-in agenda with regard to the liberalisation of Members’ trade policies, conditioning the success of this agenda to Members’ ability to reach a consensus in future negotiating rounds. In this sense, the GATT 1994 is no different from most other international treaties, which suffer from similar ‘birth defects’.The present Chapter addresses a few selected key issues stemming out of the ‘incomplete’ character of the GATT 1994, and which remain controversial. The Chapter is structured in three parts, along the lines of Mavroidis’ subdivision of GATT 1994 disciplines: (i) disciplines on ‘trade instruments’ (measures affecting importation or exportation), (ii) disciplines on ‘domestic instruments’ (measures affecting production or consumption) and (iii) disciplines on ‘state contingencies’ (specific emergencies dealing, for example, with balance of payments, currency exchange and dumping). The Chapter advances that while the GATT has, so far, accomplished a lot in terms of establishing the key principles and approaches to the regulation of trade in goods, it has still further challenges to meet in its not-too-distant future.
关税及贸易总协定(关贸总协定)于1947年10月30日在日内瓦缔结,从1948年1月至1994年12月暂时适用,并自1995年世贸组织成立以来在1994年关贸总协定中重新得到体现,其重要性怎么强调都不为过。作为多边贸易体系核心的主要国际“协定”和“机构”,关贸总协定完成了其最初的大部分任务:大幅减少关税和其他贸易壁垒,消除国际贸易中的歧视性待遇。学者们将GATT 1994描述为一个“不完整的合同”,原因至少有三种。首先,GATT 1994仅直接约束某些贸易政策,使WTO成员在国内监管和财政政策方面具有很大的自由裁量权,这可能对贸易产生很大影响。第二,GATT 1994采用了措辞模糊的条款,将协定的实际含义的确定留给裁决或进一步的条约谈判。第三,1994年关贸总协定或多或少明确地包含了一个关于成员贸易政策自由化的雄心勃勃的内在议程,这一议程的成功取决于成员在未来谈判回合中达成共识的能力。从这个意义上讲,GATT 1994与大多数其他国际条约没有什么不同,它们都有类似的“先天缺陷”。本章讨论了由于GATT 1994的“不完整”特征而产生的几个关键问题,这些问题仍然存在争议。本章按照马夫罗伊迪对1994年关贸总协定规则的细分分为三个部分:(i)关于“贸易工具”的规则(影响进口或出口的措施),(ii)关于“国内工具”的规则(影响生产或消费的措施)和(iii)关于“国家紧急情况”的规则(处理国际收支、货币兑换和倾销等具体紧急情况)。本章提出,虽然关贸总协定迄今在确立货物贸易管制的关键原则和方法方面取得了许多成就,但在不久的将来,它仍有进一步的挑战需要应付。
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引用次数: 0
Exports, Productivity, and Credit Constraints: A Firm-Level Empirical Investigation of China 出口、生产率和信贷约束:中国企业层面的实证研究
Pub Date : 2009-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1461399
Zhiyuan Li, Miaojie Yu
Recent Melitz-type (2003) intra-industry heterogonous trade models argue that a firm's productivity has significant effects on the firm's exports. This paper examines how a firms credit constraints as well as its productivity affect its export decisions. We imbed the firm's credit constraints into a Melitz-type general-equilibrium model by endogenizing the probability of the success of firm-specific projects. We show that, all else equal, it is easier for firms to enter the export market if (1) the probability of the success of their project is higher and consequently they have easier access to external finance from financial intermediaries; or (2) they have alternative sources, other than from financial intermediaries, to obtain funds. We test these theoretical hypotheses using firm-level data from Chinese manufacturing industries and find strong evidence supporting the predictions of the model.
最近的Melitz-type(2003)产业内异质贸易模型认为,企业的生产率对企业的出口有显著影响。本文考察了企业的信贷约束和生产率对其出口决策的影响。我们通过内生企业特定项目成功的概率,将企业的信用约束嵌入到melitz型一般均衡模型中。我们表明,在其他条件相同的情况下,如果(1)企业项目成功的概率更高,因此它们更容易从金融中介机构获得外部融资,那么企业更容易进入出口市场;或者(2)除了从金融中介机构获得资金外,他们还有其他渠道获得资金。我们使用来自中国制造业的企业层面数据来检验这些理论假设,并找到了支持该模型预测的有力证据。
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引用次数: 46
EU Integration and Trade: A Look from the Outside of the EU Eastern Border 欧盟一体化与贸易:欧盟东部边境的外部视角
Pub Date : 2009-08-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1458277
Oleksandr Shepotylo
This paper develops a methodology for trade policy analysis of costs and benefits of alternative regional integration scenarios, based on the disaggregated gravity equation, and applies it to calculate the impact of the EU enlargement on integration strategies of non-member countries. In particular, the paper measures the impact of the 2004 EU enlargement from the standpoint of Ukraine – a country that has been lost in transition; Ukraine moves away from CIS, but does not get closer to EU. This angle allows estimating the costs of non-integration that occurred due to trade and investment diversion, and forgone opportunity to carry our structural changes in the Ukrainian economy. According to the results, EU accession would have had a small positive effect on total export volumes but would have dramatically changed the composition of Ukrainian exports by almost doubling exports of manufactured goods by 2007. The costs of non-integration accumulate towards the end of the investigated period. Projecting the results into the future clearly indicates that the benefits of EU accession for Ukraine would have been unambiguously positive and would overweight benefits of CIS integration.
本文发展了一种基于分解重力方程的贸易政策分析方法,用于分析不同区域一体化方案的成本和收益,并将其应用于计算欧盟扩大对非成员国一体化战略的影响。特别是,本文从乌克兰的角度衡量了2004年欧盟扩大的影响——乌克兰是一个在转型中迷失的国家;乌克兰脱离了独联体,但没有向欧盟靠拢。从这个角度可以估计由于贸易和投资转移以及放弃在乌克兰经济中进行结构性变革的机会而造成的非一体化的成本。结果显示,加入欧盟将对乌克兰的出口总量产生很小的积极影响,但将极大地改变乌克兰出口的构成,到2007年,乌克兰制成品出口几乎翻了一番。不整合的成本在调查期结束时累积。将结果预测到未来清楚地表明,乌克兰加入欧盟的好处无疑是积极的,并将超过独联体一体化的好处。
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引用次数: 6
Land Degradation and Trade Liberalization: An Indian Perspective 土地退化与贸易自由化:印度视角
Pub Date : 2009-08-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1457666
S. Pohit
This paper makes an attempt to use GTAP model to understand the interplay between the agricultural trade liberalization and land degradation in India. Like any other developing country, soil erosion happens to be one of the principal environmental problems caused by agricultural production in India. In this paper, our attempt is to simulate the on-site productivity impacts of erosion, along with standard intersectoral and inter-regional economic effects of trade liberalization. The deeper and fuller agricultural trade liberalization opens up opportunities for India’s agriculture. Our result indicates that paddy, wheat, and other agriculture are the sectors in India where production would expand following liberalisation while there would be a fall in production in cereal grain sector and livestock sector. Overall, there is a small increase in India’s welfare to the tune of US $ 360 millions. While India’s agricultural expands due to opening up of opportunities, soil degradation increases with increased use of land. To what extent, the above result would change if we incorporate land degradation feedback mechanism in our analysis? Our results indicates that agricultural trade liberalisation reduces land productivity, but the effects are weak to negate the benefits of India’s welfare from agricultural trade liberalisation.
本文试图利用GTAP模型来理解印度农业贸易自由化与土地退化之间的相互作用。像任何其他发展中国家一样,土壤侵蚀恰好是印度农业生产造成的主要环境问题之一。在本文中,我们试图模拟侵蚀对现场生产力的影响,以及贸易自由化的标准跨部门和跨区域经济影响。更深层次、更全面的农业贸易自由化为印度农业提供了机遇。我们的结果表明,印度的水稻、小麦和其他农业部门的产量将在自由化后扩大,而谷物部门和畜牧业的产量将下降。总体而言,印度的福利略有增加,约为3.6亿美元。虽然印度的农业由于开放的机会而扩大,但随着土地使用的增加,土壤退化也在加剧。如果我们将土地退化反馈机制纳入我们的分析,上述结果将在多大程度上发生变化?我们的研究结果表明,农业贸易自由化降低了土地生产率,但这种影响不足以抵消农业贸易自由化对印度福利的好处。
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引用次数: 2
Economies of Scale and the Size of Exporters 规模经济和出口商的规模
Pub Date : 2009-08-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1448001
Roc Armenter, Miklós Koren
Exporters are few-less than one-fifth among U.S. manufacturing firms-and are larger than non-exporting firms-about 4-5 times more total sales per firm. These facts are often cited as support for models with economies of scale and firm heterogeneity as in Melitz (2003). The authors find that the basic Melitz model cannot simultaneously match the size and share of exporters given the observed distribution of total sales. Instead exporters are expected to be between 90 and 100 times larger than non-exporters. It is easy to reconcile the model with the data. However, a lot of variation independent of firm size is needed to do so. This suggests that economies of scale play only a minor role in determining a firm's export status. The authors show that the augmented model also has markedly different implications in the event of a trade liberalization. Most of the adjustment is through the intensive margin and productivity gains due to reallocation are halved.
出口企业在美国制造业企业中所占比例不到五分之一,而且比非出口企业规模更大,每家企业的总销售额大约是非出口企业的4-5倍。这些事实经常被引用为支持Melitz(2003)的规模经济和企业异质性模型。作者发现,在观察到的总销售额分布情况下,基本的梅利茨模型不能同时匹配出口商的规模和份额。相反,预计出口企业的规模将是非出口企业的90至100倍。使模型与数据相一致很容易。然而,要做到这一点,需要大量与企业规模无关的变化。这表明规模经济在决定一家公司的出口地位方面只起着很小的作用。作者表明,在贸易自由化的情况下,增强模型也有明显不同的含义。大部分调整是通过集约化利润实现的,再分配带来的生产率增长减半。
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引用次数: 65
American Multinationals and American Economic Interests: New Dimensions to an Old Debate 美国跨国公司与美国经济利益:旧争论的新维度
Pub Date : 2009-07-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1437673
T. Moran
The 2008 election rekindled debate about whether US multinationals shift technology across borders and relocate production in ways that might harm workers and communities at home. President Obama now pledges to end tax breaks for corporations that ship jobs overseas. The preoccupation about the behavior of American multinationals takes three forms: (1) that US-based multinational corporations may follow a strategy that leads them to abandon the home economy, leaving the workers and communities to cope on their own with few appealing alternatives after the multinationals have left; (2) worse, that US-based multinational corporations may not just abandon home sites but drain off capital, substitute production abroad for exports, and "hollow out" the domestic economy in a zero-sum process that damages those left behind; and (3) worst, that US-based multinational corporations may deploy a rent-gathering apparatus that switches from sharing supranormal profits and externalities with US workers and communities to extracting rents from the United States. Each contains a hypothetical outcome that can be compared with contemporary evidence from the United States and other home countries. This working paper shows that multinational corporations do not locate their operations in a zero-sum manner that favors host economies at the expense of the home economy. The two-way flow of inward and outward investment does not create an outcome that can be reasonably characterized in any way as "hollowing out" the home economy. The evidence consistently shows that the expansion of MNC operations abroad and the strengthening of MNC operations in the home country are complementary, and the answer to the counterfactual--would the home country be better off, or would workers in the home country be better off, if home-country MNCs were prevented from engaging in outward investment?--is indisputably negative. Making it more difficult to engage in outward investment would not strengthen the home economy in the United States. Quite the contrary, placing obstacles in the way of US multinationals using the United States as the center for conducting their global operations would leave them, their suppliers, their workers, and the communities where they are located worse off and less competitive in the world economy.
2008年的大选再次引发了一场辩论,即美国跨国公司是否会跨境转移技术,并以可能伤害美国工人和社区的方式重新安置生产。奥巴马总统现在承诺结束对那些将工作岗位转移到海外的公司的税收减免。对美国跨国公司行为的关注有三种形式:(1)总部设在美国的跨国公司可能会采取一种战略,导致它们放弃本国经济,让工人和社区在跨国公司离开后独自应对,几乎没有什么有吸引力的选择;(2)更糟糕的是,总部设在美国的跨国公司不仅可能放弃本土,还可能流失资本,以海外生产取代出口,并在零和过程中“掏空”国内经济,损害那些落后的国家;(3)最糟糕的是,总部位于美国的跨国公司可能会部署一种收租机制,从与美国工人和社区分享异常利润和外部性,转变为从美国榨取租金。每一个都包含一个假设的结果,可以与来自美国和其他母国的当代证据进行比较。这份工作报告表明,跨国公司不会以零和方式将业务定位在有利于东道国经济而牺牲本国经济的地方。对内和对外投资的双向流动不会产生以任何方式合理地描述为国内经济“空心化”的结果。证据一致表明,跨国公司海外业务的扩张和跨国公司在母国业务的加强是互补的,并且反事实的答案是——如果母国跨国公司被阻止从事对外投资,母国的情况会更好,还是母国工人的情况会更好?——无疑是消极的。加大对外投资的难度并不会增强美国的国内经济。恰恰相反,在美国跨国公司将美国作为其全球业务中心的道路上设置障碍,将使他们、他们的供应商、他们的工人和他们所在的社区变得更糟,在世界经济中竞争力下降。
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引用次数: 2
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International Trade
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