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Are Developing Asia’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Excessive? An Empirical Examination 亚洲发展中国家的外汇储备是否过度?实证检验
Pub Date : 2009-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1616950
Donghyun Park, Gemma Estrada
Developing Asian countries have accumulated foreign exchange reserves on an unprecedented scale in recent years. There is a growing consensus that Asia’s reserves now substantially exceed the levels required for precautionary purposes or for self-protection against currency crisis. The central objective of our paper is to informally and formally test whether reserves in developing Asia have in fact reached excessive levels. Informal tests of reserve adequacy based on widely used rules of thumb such as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule unambiguously indicate the presence of sizable excess reserves. To test for excess reserves more formally, we use panel-data econometric analysis based on Edison (2003). Our estimation results indicate the presence of large and growing excess reserves since 2002. The results of both informal and formal tests thus confirm the popular belief that developing Asia now has excessive foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the short-run policy challenge for Asian governments is to manage the region’s burgeoning excess reserves more actively and use them more productively. One promising area of future research, brought to the fore by the global financial crisis, is to develop more nuanced measures of reserve adequacy that take into account the possibility of severe negative shocks.
近年来,亚洲发展中国家积累的外汇储备规模空前。越来越多的人一致认为,亚洲的外汇储备目前大大超过了预防目的或防范货币危机的自我保护所需的水平。本文的中心目标是对亚洲发展中国家的外汇储备是否达到了过高的水平进行非正式和正式的检验。根据广泛使用的经验法则(如格林斯潘-吉多蒂法则)对储备充足率进行的非正式测试明确表明,存在相当规模的超额储备。为了更正式地检验超额储备,我们使用了基于Edison(2003)的面板数据计量经济分析。我们的估计结果表明,自2002年以来,存在大量且不断增长的超额储备。因此,非正式和正式测试的结果证实了一种普遍看法,即亚洲发展中国家目前拥有过多的外汇储备。因此,亚洲各国政府面临的短期政策挑战是,更积极地管理该地区迅速增长的超额外汇储备,并更有效地利用它们。由于全球金融危机,未来研究的一个很有前景的领域被提上了台面,那就是制定更细致的储备充足率衡量标准,将严重负面冲击的可能性考虑在内。
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引用次数: 47
Portents and Prospects for Mobile Telephone Service: A 3G Philippine Experience 移动电话服务的征兆与前景:3G菲律宾经验
Pub Date : 2008-12-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1572287
Villy Buenaventura
Philippine telecommunications has always been an adjunct of the transportation sector. Historically, the essential infrastructure for an archipelago like the Philippines was road construction and highways; communications assumed the back seat. Regulation – thus, the impetus – came from then Ministry of Transportation and Communications (1981-1986) later on, and all the way to the present, the Department of Transportation and Communications. The Martial Law years (1972-1986) gave undue advantage to the sector’s market players who were identified with the political dispensation at that time. This stifled growth. While the surrounding Southeast Asian regional economies were already riding on the telecommunications highway, the Philippines only had one international gateway facility to speak off. The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT) was the only phone company with the network and resources at that time. The small, rural companies were regarded as community intercom services unable to connect with other areas without passing through the PLDT network. To characterize this pathetic state, former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew was said to have remarked “…Ninety percent of the Philippine population was waiting for a telephone line while the other ten percent with phones were waiting for a dial tone.” But all these changed almost overnight when ‘people power’ swept the political landscape.
菲律宾电信一直是运输部门的附属品。从历史上看,像菲律宾这样的群岛的基本基础设施是道路建设和高速公路;通讯退居次要地位。监管——因此,推动力——来自当时的交通运输部(1981-1986),后来一直到现在的交通运输部。戒严令时期(1972-1986年)给了当时被认定为政治豁免的行业市场参与者不应有的优势。这抑制了经济增长。当周边的东南亚地区经济体已经在电信高速公路上驰骋时,菲律宾只有一个国际网关设施可供使用。菲律宾长途电话公司(PLDT)是当时唯一拥有网络和资源的电话公司。小型的农村公司被认为是社区对讲服务,如果不通过PLDT网络,就无法与其他地区连接。为了描述这种可悲的状态,据说新加坡前总理李光耀曾说过:“……90%的菲律宾人在等待电话线,而另外10%的人在等待拨号音。”但当“人民力量”席卷政治版图时,这一切几乎在一夜之间就改变了。
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引用次数: 0
Chandler and Business History in Japan 钱德勒和日本的商业史
Pub Date : 2008-06-01 DOI: 10.1017/S0007680500062796
M. Anchordoguy
The work and ideas of Alfred D. Chandler Jr. have enriched the field of Japanese business history and our understanding of that nation's industrial development. Chandler's studies about the rise of the large, professionally managed, multidivisional firm in the United States highlight factors critical not only to the United States' capitalist system but also to Japan's. Indeed, large firms played a dominant role in Japan's economic takeoff in the late 1800s. As these companies grew, they were transformed into professionally managed corporations. Managers, operating in a clear hierarchical chain of command, built up huge companies, such as Nihon Denki (NEC), Toshiba, Mitsubishi Electric, Hitachi, Nippon Steel, Matsushita, and Toyota. In Japanese as in U.S. firms, the invisible hand of management was critical to controlling the flow of work, from the input of raw materials to the production of finished goods.
Alfred D. Chandler Jr.的工作和思想丰富了日本商业史领域和我们对该国工业发展的理解。钱德勒对美国大型、专业管理、多部门公司兴起的研究,突出了不仅对美国资本主义制度至关重要,而且对日本资本主义制度也至关重要的因素。事实上,大公司在19世纪后期的日本经济腾飞中发挥了主导作用。随着这些公司的成长,它们转变为专业管理的公司。管理者们在清晰的等级命令链中运作,建立了大型公司,如日本电气(NEC)、东芝、三菱电机、日立、新日铁、松下和丰田。在日本和美国的公司中,管理的无形之手对于控制从原材料投入到成品生产的工作流程至关重要。
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引用次数: 2
Individual-Level Determinants of Social Capital in Europe: Differences between Country Groups 欧洲社会资本的个人层面决定因素:国家群体之间的差异
Pub Date : 2007-09-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1017757
A. Kaasa, Eve Parts
This paper investigates the effect of various individual-level determinants on social capital in Europe, in order to find out whether there are differences between the transition and non-transition countries. The novelty lies in more comprehensive sets of both determinants and dimensions of social capital covered. Data from World Values Survey for 31 European countries (including 16 transition countries) are analysed. Based on the estimation results of the measurement and structural model for all countries separately, the countries are clustered into three groups to complement the comparison of transition and non-transition countries. Differently from the previous results, the findings of this study provide support for the argument that the sources of social capital are remarkably different in transition and non-transition countries. Moreover, the results indicate that within both of these country groups subgroups have to be distinguished.
本文研究了欧洲社会资本的各种个人层面决定因素的影响,以了解转型国家和非转型国家之间是否存在差异。其新颖之处在于对社会资本的决定因素和维度进行了更全面的分析。本文分析了31个欧洲国家(包括16个转型国家)的世界价值观调查数据。根据对所有国家的计量和结构模型的估计结果,将这些国家分为三组,以补充转型期和非转型期国家的比较。与以往的研究结果不同,本研究的发现支持了社会资本来源在转型国家和非转型国家有显著差异的论点。此外,研究结果表明,在这两个国家集团内部,必须区分出不同的子集团。
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引用次数: 111
Adverse Selection Costs, Sequential Learning, and the Within-Wave Timing of Initial Public Offerings - Evidence from Germany 逆向选择成本、顺序学习和首次公开募股的波内时机——来自德国的证据
Pub Date : 2007-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1017471
M. Petersen
This paper investigates whether IPO firms' characteristics associated with adverse selection costs, which are in particular proxies for asymmetric information and signaling, differ across the recent German IPO wave from 1996 to 2002. Theoretical research on sequential learning within an IPO wave suggests that issues undertaken late in a wave exhibit larger proxies for information asymmetries and apply less signaling (learning hypothesis). This issue is interesting since previous empirical research focused on explanations of whole IPO waves and "hot issue" markets, while dynamics within waves were neglected. In a logistic regression with early and late wave IPOs (within-wave timing) as the dependent variable, the hypothesis is clearly confirmed for asymmetric information and weakly confirmed for signaling mechanisms. The findings in the sample of 315 IPOs are not driven by the occurrence of "hot issue" markets, and are robust to a special consideration of industry waves and several versions of the timing variable. Although these results imply a learning process, more research is needed to generalize the findings for more IPO waves and countries.
本文研究了1996年至2002年德国IPO浪潮中,IPO公司与逆向选择成本相关的特征(尤其是信息和信号不对称的代表)是否存在差异。IPO浪潮中顺序学习的理论研究表明,在IPO浪潮后期进行的问题表现出更大的信息不对称代理,并且应用较少的信号(学习假设)。这个问题很有趣,因为以往的实证研究主要集中在对整个IPO浪潮和“热点”市场的解释上,而忽略了浪潮内部的动态。在以早波和晚波ipo(波内时序)为因变量的逻辑回归中,该假设在信息不对称方面得到了明确的证实,在信号机制方面得到了微弱的证实。315次ipo样本的研究结果并非由“热点发行”市场的出现所驱动,在特殊考虑行业波动和几个版本的时间变量后,结果是稳健的。虽然这些结果意味着一个学习过程,但需要更多的研究来推广更多IPO浪潮和国家的研究结果。
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引用次数: 1
Ownership Competition in the European Transition Arena: Towards a Viable Restructuring? 欧洲转型舞台上的所有权竞争:走向可行的重组?
Pub Date : 2005-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.676366
Diana Pop, Julien Le Maux
One of the main goals of the European authorities is to promote common patterns of corporate restructuring by protecting the interests of holders of the securities of public companies from member States. Within the context of European integration, the new ascending countries have adapted corporate governance principles, including takeover regulation, in order to address both the question of economic growth and that of agency conflicts arisen in fully- or partially-privatized companies. Using data on Croatian and Romanian listed firms over the 2000-2003 period, we show that the ownership concentration has an asymmetrical effect on economic performance, which is conditioned by the initial structural conditions prevailing in those countries. Particularly, the Croatian companies' resources seem better managed if there are many large shareholders comparable in size, while Romanian companies perform better if the holdings of the largest shareholder are important relative to those of remaining shareholders. However, the relation between corporate governance variables and firm performance depends on a firm's characteristics, as well as on macroeconomic environment.
欧洲当局的主要目标之一是通过保护成员国上市公司证券持有人的利益来促进公司重组的共同模式。在欧洲一体化的背景下,新的上升国家调整了公司治理原则,包括收购监管,以解决经济增长问题和完全或部分私有化公司中出现的代理冲突问题。利用2000-2003年期间克罗地亚和罗马尼亚上市公司的数据,我们表明股权集中度对经济绩效具有不对称的影响,这取决于这些国家普遍存在的初始结构条件。特别是,如果有许多规模相当的大股东,克罗地亚公司的资源似乎管理得更好,而如果最大股东的持股相对于其余股东的持股重要,罗马尼亚公司的表现就更好。然而,公司治理变量与公司绩效之间的关系取决于公司的特征,也取决于宏观经济环境。
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引用次数: 1
The Insertion of Greek Firms into Globalization: The Dynamics of the Triangle of Strategy, Technology and Management 希腊企业在全球化中的插入:战略、技术和管理三角的动态
Pub Date : 2005-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3218009
Charis Vlados
Globalization is not a complete state of affairs: it is not a static and finished status quo. On the contrary, it is subject to continuous transformation and restructuring. At the same time, Globalization is not a timeless, unhistorical and automatically homogenizing phenomenon. Globalization Dynamic is unfolding through a complex process by which each socioeconomic part is producing, but also is being produced by, the Globalizing systemic whole. In practice, every attempt of scientific understanding, interpretation and prediction of the separate socioeconomic dynamics and developments is becoming increasingly infertile and disorientating, insofar as the rigid analytic division between the National and the Inter-national is being precipitated: Globalization is a complex dialectic and evolutionary phe-nomenon. From these it follows that the study of Globalization through the examination of the synthesizing and co-evolving incorporation of separate socioeconomic structures (social, economic and sectoral) and corporate subsystems in terms of strategy, technology and management (stra.tech.man triangle) constitutes a new approach for the study of the globalization process.
全球化不是一种完整的状态:它不是一种静止的、已完成的现状。相反,它是不断转型和重组的对象。与此同时,全球化并不是一个永恒的、非历史的、自动同质化的现象。全球化动力是通过一个复杂的过程展开的,通过这个过程,每个社会经济部分都在生产全球化的系统整体,但也被全球化的系统整体所生产。在实践中,科学理解、解释和预测单独的社会经济动态和发展的每一次尝试都变得越来越贫瘠和迷失方向,因为国家与国际之间的严格分析划分正在加速:全球化是一种复杂的辩证法和进化现象。由此可见,全球化的研究是通过考察不同的社会经济结构(社会、经济和部门)和公司子系统在战略、技术和管理方面的综合和共同发展的结合来进行的。“人三角”为研究全球化进程提供了新的途径。
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引用次数: 23
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International Strategy & Policy eJournal
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