Pub Date : 2010-08-01DOI: 10.5089/9781455202256.001
Issouf Samaké
This paper applies and extends a theoretical model built by Agenor and Montiel (2007) by exploring the effectiveness of government bonds and monetary policy in a small, open, credit-based economy with a fixed exchange rate. The model is applied to Benin, a member of a currency union, using a general equilibrium model with stochastic simulation. Model calibration replicates the historical pattern for 1996–2009. Policy experiments simulated an increase in government securities in Benin’s regional market and a cut in the reserve requirement. Simulations produced mixed results. It appears that, among other factors, excess bank liquidity lowers the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments through the credit channel and that government bonds can help mop up excess bank liquidity.
{"title":"A Macro Model of the Credit Channel in a Currency Union Member: The Case of Benin","authors":"Issouf Samaké","doi":"10.5089/9781455202256.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455202256.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper applies and extends a theoretical model built by Agenor and Montiel (2007) by exploring the effectiveness of government bonds and monetary policy in a small, open, credit-based economy with a fixed exchange rate. The model is applied to Benin, a member of a currency union, using a general equilibrium model with stochastic simulation. Model calibration replicates the historical pattern for 1996–2009. Policy experiments simulated an increase in government securities in Benin’s regional market and a cut in the reserve requirement. Simulations produced mixed results. It appears that, among other factors, excess bank liquidity lowers the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments through the credit channel and that government bonds can help mop up excess bank liquidity.","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86982532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-07-19DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2010.00570.x
Muqun Li, Wei Liu, Shunfeng Song
This paper examines trades and trade relationships among China, Japan, and South Korea. It shows that China possesses a large comparative advantage in labor-intensive products, while Japan and Korea maintain large comparative advantages in capital-intensive products. Using quarterly data from 1981 to 2001, the paper evaluates the effect of yen depreciation on the exports of China and South Korea. Our empirical results prove a positive impact of depreciation of yen on China's exports but a negative impact on Korea's exports. This finding suggests that Japan is competing with South Korea in terms of exports, but not with China.
{"title":"Export Relationships Among China, Japan, and South Korea","authors":"Muqun Li, Wei Liu, Shunfeng Song","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9361.2010.00570.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2010.00570.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines trades and trade relationships among China, Japan, and South Korea. It shows that China possesses a large comparative advantage in labor-intensive products, while Japan and Korea maintain large comparative advantages in capital-intensive products. Using quarterly data from 1981 to 2001, the paper evaluates the effect of yen depreciation on the exports of China and South Korea. Our empirical results prove a positive impact of depreciation of yen on China's exports but a negative impact on Korea's exports. This finding suggests that Japan is competing with South Korea in terms of exports, but not with China.","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79574337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the relationship between rainfall, water, and socio-political unrest in Africa. In particular, we are interested in how deviations from normal rainfall patterns, and extreme events such as flooding and drought, affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. In contrast to much of the environmental security literature, we use a much broader definition of conflict that includes, but is not is not limited to, organized rebellion. Using a new database of over 6,000 instances of social conflict in the past 20 years - the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) - we examine the effect of deviations from normal rainfall patterns on various types of conflict. Our results indicate that rainfall variability has a significant effect on both large-scale and smaller-scale instances of political conflict. We find that rainfall is correlated with civil war and insurgency, although wetter years are more likely to suffer from violent events. Extreme deviations in rainfall - particularly dry and wet years - are associated with all types of political conflict (violent and nonviolent, government-targeted and non/government-targeted), though the relationship is strongest with respect to violent events, which are more responsive to abundant rather than scarce rainfall. By looking at a broader spectrum of social conflict, rather than limiting the analysis to civil war, we demonstrate a robust relationship between environmental shocks and violence.
{"title":"After the Rain: Rainfall Variability, Hydro-Meteorological Disasters, and Social Conflict in Africa","authors":"Cullen S. Hendrix, Idean Salehyan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1641312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1641312","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the relationship between rainfall, water, and socio-political unrest in Africa. In particular, we are interested in how deviations from normal rainfall patterns, and extreme events such as flooding and drought, affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. In contrast to much of the environmental security literature, we use a much broader definition of conflict that includes, but is not is not limited to, organized rebellion. Using a new database of over 6,000 instances of social conflict in the past 20 years - the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) - we examine the effect of deviations from normal rainfall patterns on various types of conflict. Our results indicate that rainfall variability has a significant effect on both large-scale and smaller-scale instances of political conflict. We find that rainfall is correlated with civil war and insurgency, although wetter years are more likely to suffer from violent events. Extreme deviations in rainfall - particularly dry and wet years - are associated with all types of political conflict (violent and nonviolent, government-targeted and non/government-targeted), though the relationship is strongest with respect to violent events, which are more responsive to abundant rather than scarce rainfall. By looking at a broader spectrum of social conflict, rather than limiting the analysis to civil war, we demonstrate a robust relationship between environmental shocks and violence.","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88614950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sanghamitra Das, K. Krishna, Sergey Lychagin, R. Somanathan
We use a proprietary data set on the floor-level operations at the Bhilai Rail and Structural Mill in India to understand the determinants of changes in plant productivity in 2000-2003. During this period there was a 35 percent increase in output with minimal changes in factors of production, but sizable reductions in production delays. We model interruptions to the production process and find that a large part of these reductions are attributable to training. Our results suggest that specific knowledge-enhancing investments can have very high returns, and that the threat of competition provides powerful incentives to undertake such investments.
{"title":"Back on the Rails: Competition and Productivity in State-Owned Industry","authors":"Sanghamitra Das, K. Krishna, Sergey Lychagin, R. Somanathan","doi":"10.1257/APP.5.1.136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/APP.5.1.136","url":null,"abstract":"We use a proprietary data set on the floor-level operations at the Bhilai Rail and Structural Mill in India to understand the determinants of changes in plant productivity in 2000-2003. During this period there was a 35 percent increase in output with minimal changes in factors of production, but sizable reductions in production delays. We model interruptions to the production process and find that a large part of these reductions are attributable to training. Our results suggest that specific knowledge-enhancing investments can have very high returns, and that the threat of competition provides powerful incentives to undertake such investments.","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89177420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
F. P. van der Zee, F. Brandes, J. Sanders, Dirk Maier, E. Dijkgraaf, G. Vissers, Maarten J.G.M. Van Gils, W. Zwinkels
Part I analyses recent relevant sector developments and trends and depicts the current state of play in the sector, with an emphasis on innovation, skills and jobs. The findings of Part I of the report combine original data analysis using Eurostat structural business statistics and labour force survey data with results from an extensive literature review of relevant already existing studies. While giving a clear and concise overview of the most important trends and developments, the prime function of Part I is to provide the fundaments and building blocks for Part II of the study. The findings of Part I are based on the present and the recent past. The second part of the report is future-oriented and looks at sectoral developments and more specifically developments in skills and jobs in and towards 2020. The core of part II consists of plausible future scenarios and their implications for jobs, skills and knowledge. These implications have been analysed for various job functions. In a final part III, a range of main strategic options (‘choices’) to meet the future skills and knowledge needs is reviewed, including implications for education and training. The study concludes with a number of recommendations for the sector (individual firms, sector organizations, sectoral partners), education and training institutes and intermediary organisations, and last but not least, policy-makers at various levels, ranging from the EU to the local level.
{"title":"Investing in the Future of Jobs and Skills; Scenarios, Implications and Options in Anticipation of Future Skills and Knowledge Needs - Sector Report Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Rubber & Plastic Products","authors":"F. P. van der Zee, F. Brandes, J. Sanders, Dirk Maier, E. Dijkgraaf, G. Vissers, Maarten J.G.M. Van Gils, W. Zwinkels","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1579302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1579302","url":null,"abstract":"Part I analyses recent relevant sector developments and trends and depicts the current state of play in the sector, with an emphasis on innovation, skills and jobs. The findings of Part I of the report combine original data analysis using Eurostat structural business statistics and labour force survey data with results from an extensive literature review of relevant already existing studies. While giving a clear and concise overview of the most important trends and developments, the prime function of Part I is to provide the fundaments and building blocks for Part II of the study. The findings of Part I are based on the present and the recent past. The second part of the report is future-oriented and looks at sectoral developments and more specifically developments in skills and jobs in and towards 2020. The core of part II consists of plausible future scenarios and their implications for jobs, skills and knowledge. These implications have been analysed for various job functions. In a final part III, a range of main strategic options (‘choices’) to meet the future skills and knowledge needs is reviewed, including implications for education and training. The study concludes with a number of recommendations for the sector (individual firms, sector organizations, sectoral partners), education and training institutes and intermediary organisations, and last but not least, policy-makers at various levels, ranging from the EU to the local level.","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84401250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The growth of East Asia’s intra-regional trade is driven largely by increased component trade within global electronics production networks. Data on both electronics trade and production elucidate a pattern of specialization in which upper- and middle-income countries produce sophisticated components and lower-income countries assemble lower- value-added final goods. There is evidence of increasing sophistication within the electronics sector by the Newly Industrialized Economies and to a lesser extent by ASEAN countries. Despite the marked increase in intra-regional trade, developing East Asian countries remain heavily dependent on developed-country markets. When Western export demand rapidly contracted during the 2008-2009 economic crisis, these specialization patterns led the rapid diffusion of the business cycle shock throughout the East Asian region.
{"title":"Global Production Networks in Electronics and Intra-Asian Trade","authors":"Byron Gangnes, Ari Van Assche","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1587978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1587978","url":null,"abstract":"The growth of East Asia’s intra-regional trade is driven largely by increased component trade within global electronics production networks. Data on both electronics trade and production elucidate a pattern of specialization in which upper- and middle-income countries produce sophisticated components and lower-income countries assemble lower- value-added final goods. There is evidence of increasing sophistication within the electronics sector by the Newly Industrialized Economies and to a lesser extent by ASEAN countries. Despite the marked increase in intra-regional trade, developing East Asian countries remain heavily dependent on developed-country markets. When Western export demand rapidly contracted during the 2008-2009 economic crisis, these specialization patterns led the rapid diffusion of the business cycle shock throughout the East Asian region.","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80227099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Argentinean export growth was impressive during the recent economic boom (2003-2007). However, decomposing export growth reveals that the extensive margin (increases in exports of existing products to existing markets) dominates, while the intensive margin (increases in exports of new products or new markets) contributes little to export growth. Argentina's trade product concentration has increased in the past 10 years, and the main export products remain overwhelmingly natural-resource intensive. The little diversification of non-primary exports limits the countrys ability to weather a decline in export commodity prices. The country has had some success finding new export markets, especially in Latin America, but should seek to develop deeper trade relationships with high GDP export destinations such as the European Union and the United States. Another challenge going forward is the relatively low sophistication of exports and limited integration into the global production chains, falling behind regional competitors such as Brazil. This calls for policy measures to improve the ability of existing firms to innovate and compete successfully in global markets.
{"title":"Argentina: Trade Patterns and Challenges Ahead","authors":"Paloma Anos Casero, Valentina Rollo","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-5221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5221","url":null,"abstract":"Argentinean export growth was impressive during the recent economic boom (2003-2007). However, decomposing export growth reveals that the extensive margin (increases in exports of existing products to existing markets) dominates, while the intensive margin (increases in exports of new products or new markets) contributes little to export growth. Argentina's trade product concentration has increased in the past 10 years, and the main export products remain overwhelmingly natural-resource intensive. The little diversification of non-primary exports limits the countrys ability to weather a decline in export commodity prices. The country has had some success finding new export markets, especially in Latin America, but should seek to develop deeper trade relationships with high GDP export destinations such as the European Union and the United States. Another challenge going forward is the relatively low sophistication of exports and limited integration into the global production chains, falling behind regional competitors such as Brazil. This calls for policy measures to improve the ability of existing firms to innovate and compete successfully in global markets.","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84142107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rebalancing expenditures among and within surplus and deficit countries has emerged as a key global policy priority. This paper examines the implications of rebalancing expenditure categories in 10 Asia Pacific economies for the structure of production. An aggressive rebalancing scenario is constructed (based on 2007 current account data, since more recent imbalances are smaller) and its detailed production implications are analyzed using a large international input-output system. The changes associated with eliminating excessive international imbalances are found to be modest relative to major expenditure categories in the Asia Pacific. Moreover, significant overlaps in the production induced by different types of expenditures dampen the output effects of shifts among them. This does not mean that rebalancing will be easy to accomplish - spending reallocations are politically difficult - but the need to "reinvent" Asia's growth model appears to be overstated.
{"title":"How Will Rebalancing Demand Change Production in the Asia Pacific?","authors":"P. Petri","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1545096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1545096","url":null,"abstract":"Rebalancing expenditures among and within surplus and deficit countries has emerged as a key global policy priority. This paper examines the implications of rebalancing expenditure categories in 10 Asia Pacific economies for the structure of production. An aggressive rebalancing scenario is constructed (based on 2007 current account data, since more recent imbalances are smaller) and its detailed production implications are analyzed using a large international input-output system. The changes associated with eliminating excessive international imbalances are found to be modest relative to major expenditure categories in the Asia Pacific. Moreover, significant overlaps in the production induced by different types of expenditures dampen the output effects of shifts among them. This does not mean that rebalancing will be easy to accomplish - spending reallocations are politically difficult - but the need to \"reinvent\" Asia's growth model appears to be overstated.","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74824164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-01-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01184.x
Juthathip Jongwanich
This paper examines the determinants of exports in eight East and Southeast Asian economies, with an emphasis on the increasing importance of parts and components in total exports. To see whether exports in parts and components are ‘special’ and to allow comparisons, export equations are estimated for three different export categories: total merchandise exports, manufacturing exports and exports of machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7). The analysis is based on data for 1993–2008, a period over which parts and components trade burgeoned. The estimations indicate that the growing importance in the export composition of parts and components within vertically integrated cross-border production processes has tended to weaken the nexus of real exchange rate and export performance. World demand and supply-side factors, including foreign direct investment, tend to become more crucial in determining export performance.
{"title":"Determinants of Export Performance in East and Southeast Asia","authors":"Juthathip Jongwanich","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01184.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01184.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the determinants of exports in eight East and Southeast Asian economies, with an emphasis on the increasing importance of parts and components in total exports. To see whether exports in parts and components are ‘special’ and to allow comparisons, export equations are estimated for three different export categories: total merchandise exports, manufacturing exports and exports of machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7). The analysis is based on data for 1993–2008, a period over which parts and components trade burgeoned. The estimations indicate that the growing importance in the export composition of parts and components within vertically integrated cross-border production processes has tended to weaken the nexus of real exchange rate and export performance. World demand and supply-side factors, including foreign direct investment, tend to become more crucial in determining export performance.","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82181398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines this agenda and argues that if Brazil really wants to fully enjoy the growth and welfare benefits of trade, it needs to further lower and rationalize its structure of protection; adopt a more aggressive, World Trade Organization-plus, policy to open markets abroad; design a regional integration strategy that makes sense to its smaller partners; and bring trade facilitation, particularly transport costs, to the core of its trade agenda
{"title":"Brazil's Trade Policy: Old and New Issues","authors":"M. Moreira","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1555947","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1555947","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines this agenda and argues that if Brazil really wants to fully enjoy the growth and welfare benefits of trade, it needs to further lower and rationalize its structure of protection; adopt a more aggressive, World Trade Organization-plus, policy to open markets abroad; design a regional integration strategy that makes sense to its smaller partners; and bring trade facilitation, particularly transport costs, to the core of its trade agenda","PeriodicalId":14435,"journal":{"name":"International Strategy & Policy eJournal","volume":"144 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77453595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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