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Digital finance and the firms’ production stages along the global value chain 数字金融与企业在全球价值链上的生产阶段
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104946
Qiming Liu , Chenda Li , Liang Zhang , Liang Cao , Liubing Lai
The rapid rise of digital finance has become essential for firms seeking to ascend the global value chain (GVC). This paper investigates whether and how the development of city-level digital finance influences firms' span of production stages along the GVC. The results show that digital finance significantly expands firms' production stages, and the finding remains robust to multiple tests. Further mechanism analysis disclosures that digital finance realizes its positive impact by increasing firms' import upstreamness, alleviating external financial constraints, and enhancing innovation activities, which ultimately enable firms to occupy more stages in global production. Heterogeneity tests indicate that the effects vary systematically across firms of different sizes and ownership types.
数字金融的迅速崛起对于寻求提升全球价值链(GVC)的公司来说至关重要。本文研究了城市级数字金融的发展是否以及如何影响企业沿全球价值链的生产阶段跨度。结果表明,数字金融显著地扩展了企业的生产阶段,并且这一发现在多次检验中仍然是稳健的。进一步的机制分析表明,数字金融通过增加企业的上游进口、缓解外部资金约束和增强创新活动来实现其积极影响,最终使企业能够在全球生产中占据更多的阶段。异质性检验表明,在不同规模和所有权类型的公司中,这种影响存在系统性差异。
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引用次数: 0
Facilitator or inhibitor? 促进者还是抑制者?
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104923
Dominik Ulke
The relationship between financial openness and economic growth has long been debated, with empirical evidence remaining mixed. Much of the existing literature focuses on the late 20th century, leaving the effects of financial openness in the 21st century, a time that saw several financial crises and a widespread revival of capital controls, comparatively underexplored. This study revisits this fundamental question using a comprehensive panel dataset covering 159 countries from 1995 to 2021 and two widely used indicators of financial openness, KAOPEN (Chinn and Ito, 2006) and CAPITAL (Quinn, 1997; Quinn and Toyoda, 2008). Employing fixed effects, two-stage least squares, and system-GMM estimators, the analysis accounts for endogeneity concerns. Across all specifications, results consistently show a negative association between financial openness and real per capita GDP growth, suggesting that greater openness has reduced growth in recent decades. Contrary to theory, there is only weak evidence to suggest that this effect is stronger for countries that predominantly import capital and for those that suffer from ”original sin”. These results challenge the conventional wisdom that financial liberalization inherently fosters economic growth. From a policy perspective, they suggest that maintaining selective capital controls may contribute to greater macroeconomic stability and sustained growth, not only for developing countries.
金融开放与经济增长之间的关系长期以来一直存在争议,经验证据仍然好坏参半。现有的文献大多集中在20世纪后期,而对21世纪金融开放的影响的探讨相对较少,而21世纪经历了几次金融危机,资本管制广泛复苏。本研究使用涵盖1995年至2021年159个国家的综合面板数据集和两个广泛使用的金融开放指标——KAOPEN (Chinn and Ito, 2006)和CAPITAL (Quinn, 1997; Quinn and Toyoda, 2008),重新审视了这个基本问题。采用固定效应、两阶段最小二乘和系统- gmm估计,分析考虑了内生性问题。在所有指标中,结果一致显示金融开放度与实际人均GDP增长之间存在负相关关系,这表明近几十年来,更大的开放度降低了增长。与理论相反,只有微弱的证据表明,这种影响对主要进口资本的国家和那些遭受“原罪”的国家更强。这些结果挑战了金融自由化本质上促进经济增长的传统观点。从政策角度来看,他们认为,维持选择性资本管制可能有助于提高宏观经济稳定性和持续增长,不仅对发展中国家如此。
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引用次数: 0
Digital leadership and the development of firms’ cross-border E-commerce 数字领导与企业跨境电子商务的发展
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104857
Zerun Wang , Yingying Geng , Peiyang Xie , Ke Peng
Cross-border e-commerce offers significant opportunities for firms seeking international market access through digital channels. This study investigates how digital leadership drives cross-border e-commerce development among Chinese enterprises. We define digital leadership as top management's demonstrated commitment to digital transformation, operationalized through the proportion of intangible assets allocated to digitalization initiatives. Using panel data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2023, we measure cross-border e-commerce development through textual analysis of annual reports. Empirical results demonstrate that digital leadership significantly promotes cross-border e-commerce development. Mechanism analysis identifies two mediating pathways: supply chain digitalization and digital technology application depth. Furthermore, government digitalization incentives positively moderate the relationship between digital leadership and cross-border e-commerce outcomes. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that digital leadership effects are more pronounced in large enterprises and state owned enterprises, suggesting that leadership driven transformation proves particularly consequential in complex organizations with substantial resources but potential structural inertia. These findings remain robust across alternative variable measurements, Tobit estimation, exclusion of pandemic years, instrumental variable approaches, propensity score matching, and Heckman selection correction. This research contributes to the literature by proposing an asset based measure of digital leadership that captures actual resource commitment rather than executive background characteristics. The findings offer guidance for managers seeking to translate digital strategy into international market outcomes and for policymakers designing incentive programs that complement firm level transformation efforts.
跨境电子商务为寻求通过数字渠道进入国际市场的公司提供了重要机会。本研究探讨了数字领导力如何推动中国企业的跨境电子商务发展。我们将数字化领导力定义为最高管理层对数字化转型的承诺,通过分配给数字化计划的无形资产比例来实现。利用2007 - 2023年中国a股上市公司的面板数据,通过年报文本分析来衡量跨境电子商务的发展。实证结果表明,数字领导对跨境电子商务的发展具有显著的促进作用。机制分析确定了供应链数字化和数字技术应用深度这两条中介路径。此外,政府数字化激励正向调节数字化领导与跨境电子商务成果之间的关系。异质性分析显示,数字化领导效应在大型企业和国有企业中更为明显,这表明,在拥有大量资源但存在潜在结构惯性的复杂组织中,领导驱动的转型尤其重要。这些发现在替代变量测量、Tobit估计、排除流行年份、工具变量方法、倾向评分匹配和Heckman选择校正中仍然是稳健的。本研究提出了一种基于资产的数字领导力衡量方法,该方法捕捉了实际的资源承诺,而不是高管背景特征,从而为文献做出了贡献。研究结果为寻求将数字化战略转化为国际市场成果的管理者和设计激励计划以补充企业层面转型努力的政策制定者提供了指导。
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引用次数: 0
Ethical substitutes or institutional frictions? Confucian culture, marketization, and internal control effectiveness 伦理替代还是制度摩擦?儒家文化、市场化与内部控制有效性
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104900
Weiyu Zhang, Zhihui Dou, Qianru Wang, Xindong Yang
This study explores the governance implications of Confucian culture on internal control effectiveness in Chinese listed firms from 2012 to 2021, drawing on informal institutional theory. Moving beyond reliance on single proxy variables, we operationalize Confucian culture by decomposing it into the “Five Constant Virtues” (Ren, Yi, Li, Zhi, Xin). We construct a weighted index using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), assigning the highest weight to “Xin” (Trust) based on the logic of corporate survival. By integrating expert-based AHP weighting with textual big data from annual reports, we significantly enhance the external validity of our cultural measurement. Empirical results reveal that Confucian culture significantly improves internal control, functioning as an ethical substitute for formal institutions in weak rule-of-law environments. Conversely, its governance utility is significantly weakened in highly marketized regions, suggesting institutional friction between relationship-based norms and market principles. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that Confucian values exert a stronger positive effect in state-owned enterprises. These findings underscore the situational duality of informal institutions and highlight the complex role of Confucian ethics in hybrid governance systems. This study contributes to cross-cultural corporate governance literature by providing a nuanced framework for ethical-institutional alignment and proposing differentiated governance strategies across diverse institutional contexts.
本文运用非正式制度理论,探讨了2012 - 2021年儒家文化对中国上市公司内部控制有效性的影响。超越对单一代理变量的依赖,我们通过将儒家文化分解为“五常”(仁、义、礼、志、信)来运作儒家文化。我们利用层次分析法(AHP)构建了一个加权指数,并根据企业生存的逻辑赋予“信”(信任)最高的权重。通过将基于专家的AHP权重与来自年度报告的文本大数据相结合,我们显著提高了文化测量的外部有效性。实证结果表明,儒家文化显著改善了内部控制,在法治薄弱的环境中作为正式制度的伦理替代品。相反,在高度市场化的地区,其治理效用明显减弱,表明基于关系的规范与市场原则之间存在制度性摩擦。异质性分析进一步表明,儒家价值观对国有企业的正向作用更强。这些发现强调了非正式制度的情境二重性,并强调了儒家伦理在混合治理体系中的复杂作用。本研究提供了一个细致入微的伦理-制度协调框架,并提出了不同制度背景下的差异化治理策略,从而为跨文化公司治理文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Latent variable modelling by supervised diffusion 有监督扩散的潜在变量建模
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104972
Daniil Bargman
Latent variables are used in many prominent models in economics and finance. Yet the standard methodologies for estimating latent variables often produce sub-optimal results in inferential settings. This paper proposes a new methodological framework for latent variable modelling which stands on the conceptual foundations of Principal Component Analysis but endows the estimated latent variables with inferential properties. The new framework is then applied to derive a new latent variable regression model called LARX: an extension of the ubiquitous autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (ARX) in which any or all input variables can be latent. As a side-effect of deriving the LARX model, a minor contribution is also made to the field of matrix calculus: A new matrix operator is defined and applied to solve a class of Lagrangian optimisation problems with interactions between multiple coefficient vectors subject to case-by-case constraints.
In the empirical section, the LARX model is used to re-examine the relationship between stock market performance and real economic activity in the United States. The LARX model attains an out-of-sample R-squared of up to 79.7% compared to 50.3% for the baseline OLS specification. It also reveals new information about the underlying drivers of the relationship between stock returns and economic growth, including the predictive power of sector rotations.
潜在变量被用于许多著名的经济和金融模型中。然而,估计潜在变量的标准方法往往在推理设置中产生次优结果。本文提出了一种新的潜在变量建模方法框架,该框架立足于主成分分析的概念基础,但赋予估计的潜在变量以推理性质。然后应用新框架推导出一种新的潜在变量回归模型,称为LARX:一种具有外生输入(ARX)的普遍自回归模型的扩展,其中任何或所有输入变量都可以是潜在的。作为推导LARX模型的一个副作用,对矩阵演算领域也做出了一个小小的贡献:定义了一个新的矩阵算子,并应用于解决一类拉格朗日优化问题,这些问题具有受逐例约束的多个系数向量之间的相互作用。在实证部分,使用LARX模型重新考察了美国股市表现与实体经济活动之间的关系。LARX模型的样本外r平方高达79.7%,而基线OLS规范为50.3%。它还揭示了股票回报与经济增长之间关系的潜在驱动因素的新信息,包括行业轮换的预测能力。
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引用次数: 0
“Safe haven" or “risk source" ? The time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on China's short-term capital flows “避风港”还是“风险源”?地缘政治风险对中国短期资本流动的时变影响
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104985
Shiwei Chang , Cong Wang , Bo Chen , Yu Song
This paper examines the dynamic impact of geopolitical risk on short-term capital flows using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model and analyzes the transmission mechanism through interest rate differentials and exchange rate expectations. The findings indicate that geopolitical risk is a significant driver of short-term capital flows in China, with increased geopolitical risk leading to short-term cross-border capital outflows. Impulse response analysis across different time points indicates that financial opening-up policies affect short-term capital flows, yet gradual financial opening-up has not significantly amplified the impact of geopolitical risk. Under the influence of geopolitical risk, interest rate differentials and exchange rate expectations play crucial roles in the transmission of financial market risks in China.
本文运用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型考察了地缘政治风险对短期资本流动的动态影响,并通过利差和汇率预期分析了地缘政治风险对短期资本流动的传导机制。研究结果表明,地缘政治风险是中国短期资本流动的重要驱动因素,地缘政治风险的增加导致短期跨境资本外流。跨时间点的脉冲响应分析表明,金融开放政策影响短期资本流动,但渐进式金融开放并未显著放大地缘政治风险的影响。在地缘政治风险的影响下,利差和汇率预期对中国金融市场风险的传导起着至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Evolution of the manufacturing industry's status in the global value chain division of labor driven by the digital economy 数字经济驱动下制造业在全球价值链分工中的地位演变
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104930
Lu Chen , Sizhou Wen , Yang Gao , Jiurui Rong
With the high-speed growth of new-generation information technology, the digital economy has had a profound impact on the global value chain (GVC) division of labor status in the manufacturing. Based on country-industry panel data from 2008 to 2018, our research explore the factors influenced by the digital economy on the manufacturing GVC division of labor. It is found that the digital economic growth dramatically contributes to the enhancement of manufacturing GVC division of labor status, and influences by promoting the production link to climb up to the R&D end, enhancing the inter-industry linkage, and reducing the cost of inter-country trade. Heterogeneous factors such as foreign digital resource inputs, higher national income levels, and industry capital-technology intensity reinforce the value chain status -enhancing effect of the digital economy. The results of the study are instructive for the policy making on the digital economy and manufacturing industry development.
随着新一代信息技术的高速发展,数字经济对制造业全球价值链分工格局产生了深刻影响。基于2008 - 2018年的国别-行业面板数据,探讨数字经济对制造业全球价值链分工的影响因素。研究发现,数字经济增长显著促进了制造业全球价值链分工地位的提升,并通过促进生产环节向研发端攀升、增强产业间联系、降低国家间贸易成本等方式产生影响。国外数字资源投入、较高的国民收入水平和产业资本技术强度等异质性因素强化了数字经济的价值链地位提升效应。研究结果对数字经济和制造业发展的政策制定具有指导意义。
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引用次数: 0
Public health restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact on international tax evasion COVID-19大流行期间的公共卫生限制及其对国际逃税的影响
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104810
David M. Kemme , Bhavik Parikh , Tanja Steigner
The COVID-19 pandemic provides a natural experiment to examine how institutional capacity mediates tax evasion during economic shocks. Utilizing comprehensive data covering the period 2015–2020, with 9996 observations across 191 source and 38 OECD host countries, we analyze foreign portfolio investment flows to test two hypotheses about tax evasion behavior through roundtripping. We predict that tax evasion increases in non-developed markets, where economic incentives dominate, but decreases in developed markets, where regulatory constraints prevail. We find strong evidence for the incentive-driven response in MSCI non-developed market host countries, where economic distress and limited enforcement capacity outweighed operational constraints during the pandemic, leading to increased offshore tax evasion. We also confirm the constraint-driven response in MSCI-developed market host countries, where enhanced enforcement capabilities and operational barriers outweighed increased incentives, thereby reducing tax evasion activities. These results suggest that institutional capacity influences whether economic distress or regulatory constraints dominate during crisis periods.
2019冠状病毒病大流行为研究机构能力如何在经济冲击期间调节逃税行为提供了一个自然实验。利用2015-2020年期间的综合数据,对191个来源国和38个经合组织东道国进行9996次观察,我们分析了外国证券投资流动,以检验通过往返逃税行为的两个假设。我们预测,在经济激励占主导地位的非发达市场,逃税行为会增加;而在监管约束盛行的发达市场,逃税行为会减少。我们发现强有力的证据表明,MSCI非发达市场东道国采取了激励驱动的应对措施,在疫情期间,这些国家的经济困境和有限的执法能力超过了运营限制,导致离岸逃税行为增加。我们还确认了msci发达市场东道国的约束驱动型应对措施,在这些国家,执法能力和运营障碍的增强超过了激励措施的增加,从而减少了逃税活动。这些结果表明,在危机期间,制度能力会影响经济困境或监管约束是否占主导地位。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental Practices and Corporate Cost of Debt: Evidence from European Listed Firms 环境实践与企业债务成本:来自欧洲上市公司的证据
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2026.104910
Sabri Boubaker , Lorenzo Fichera , Simona Galletta , Sebastiano Mazzù
This paper examines the relationship between firms' environmental sustainability and the cost of debt, with a specific focus on how firms' transition efforts are taken into account. Using a dataset of large European listed companies covering the period from 2015 to 2023, we provide evidence that better environmental practices on polluting emissions, energy sources and waste management reduce firms' cost of debt. This result remains robust when environmental metrics are combined into a unique composite indicator and after testing for endogeneity. Further analysis shows that the reduction in the cost of debt is stronger for less sustainable firms engaged in environmental transition. Our findings shed light on the importance of considering firms’ transition needs and efforts for effective transition finance.
本文考察了企业的环境可持续性和债务成本之间的关系,并特别关注如何考虑企业的转型努力。利用2015年至2023年期间欧洲大型上市公司的数据集,我们提供了证据,证明在污染排放、能源和废物管理方面采取更好的环保措施可以降低企业的债务成本。当环境指标结合成一个独特的复合指标,并测试了内生性后,这个结果仍然是稳健的。进一步的分析表明,对于从事环境转型的可持续性较差的公司,债务成本的降低更为显著。我们的研究结果揭示了考虑企业转型需求和有效转型融资努力的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Do natural disasters affect product development? Evidence from trademarks 自然灾害会影响产品开发吗?商标证据
IF 5.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104863
Dieter Gramlich , Thomas Walker , Aoran Zhang , Yunfei Zhao
We examine the impact of natural disasters at the county-level on trademark registrations (representing the commercialization of established technological innovations) in a large sample of U.S. public companies. Our results identify a reduction in trademark registrations following a disaster, which we find to be associated with (i) financial constraints on firms, (ii) reduced commitment to product development as evidenced by lower R&D and advertisement spending, and (iii) reduced human capital due to the tendency of marketing talents to avoid areas affected by disasters. Despite the reduction in trademark registrations, we find that firms significantly increase their innovation efficiency after a natural disaster, meaning that they convert a higher proportion of existing patents into trademarks than in non-disaster periods.
我们以美国上市公司为大样本,研究了县级自然灾害对商标注册(代表已建立的技术创新的商业化)的影响。我们的研究结果确定了灾难后商标注册的减少,我们发现这与(i)公司的财务限制,(ii)减少对产品开发的投入,这可以通过降低研发和广告支出来证明,以及(iii)由于营销人才倾向于避开受灾害影响的地区而减少的人力资本。尽管商标注册量减少,但我们发现企业在自然灾害后显著提高了创新效率,这意味着它们将现有专利转化为商标的比例高于非灾害时期。
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引用次数: 0
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International Review of Economics & Finance
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