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Factors influencing wildfire management decisions after the 2009 US federal policy update 2009 年美国联邦政策更新后影响野火管理决策的因素
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1071/wf23129
Stephen D. Fillmore, Sarah McCaffrey, Rachel Bean, Alexander M. Evans, Jose Iniguez, Andrea Thode, Alistair M. S. Smith, Matthew P. Thompson
Background

The decision making process undertaken during wildfire responses is complex and prone to uncertainty. In the US, decisions federal land managers make are influenced by numerous and often competing factors.

Aims

To assess and validate the presence of decision factors relevant to the wildfire decision making context that were previously known and to identify those that have emerged since the US federal wildfire policy was updated in 2009.

Methods

Interviews were conducted across the US while wildfires were actively burning to elucidate time-of-fire decision factors. Data were coded and thematically analysed.

Key results

Most previously known decision factors as well as numerous emergent factors were identified.

Conclusions

To contextualise decision factors within the decision making process, we offer a Wildfire Decision Framework that has value for policy makers seeking to improve decision making, managers improving their process and wildfire social science researchers.

Implications

Managers may gain a better understanding of their decision environment and use our framework as a tool to validate their deliberations. Researchers may use these data to help explain the various pressures and influences modern land and wildfire managers experience. Policy makers and agencies may take institutional steps to align the actions of their staff with desired wildfire outcomes.

背景野火应对过程中的决策制定过程非常复杂,而且容易出现不确定性。在美国,联邦土地管理者的决策受到众多因素的影响,而且这些因素往往相互竞争。目的评估和验证以前已知的与野火决策相关的决策因素,并确定自 2009 年美国联邦野火政策更新以来出现的决策因素。方法在美国各地野火活跃燃烧时进行访谈,以阐明火灾发生时的决策因素。对数据进行了编码和主题分析。主要结果确定了大多数以前已知的决策因素以及许多新出现的因素。结论通过对决策过程中的决策因素进行背景分析,我们提出了一个野火决策框架,该框架对寻求改善决策的政策制定者、改善决策过程的管理者以及野火社会科学研究者都有价值。意义管理人员可以更好地了解他们的决策环境,并使用我们的框架作为工具来验证他们的审议结果。研究人员可以利用这些数据来帮助解释现代土地和野火管理者所经历的各种压力和影响。政策制定者和机构可以采取制度性措施,使其员工的行动与所期望的野火结果保持一致。
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引用次数: 0
Forest fire progress monitoring using dual-polarisation Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images combined with multi-scale segmentation and unsupervised classification 利用双极化合成孔径雷达 (SAR) 图像,结合多尺度分割和无监督分类,监测森林火灾的进展情况
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2023-12-21 DOI: 10.1071/wf23124
Age Shama, Rui Zhang, Ting Wang, Anmengyun Liu, Xin Bao, Jichao Lv, Yuchun Zhang, Guoxiang Liu
Background

The cloud-penetrating and fog-penetrating capability of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) give it the potential for application in forest fire progress monitoring; however, the low extraction accuracy and significant salt-and-pepper noise in SAR remote sensing mapping of the burned area are problems.

Aims

This paper provides a method for accurately extracting the burned area based on fully exploiting the changes in multiple different dimensional feature parameters of dual-polarised SAR images before and after a fire.

Methods

This paper describes forest fire progress monitoring using dual-polarisation SAR images combined with multi-scale segmentation and unsupervised classification. We first constructed polarisation feature and texture feature datasets using multi-scene Sentinel-1 images. A multi-scale segmentation algorithm was then used to generate objects to suppress the salt-and-pepper noise, followed by an unsupervised classification method to extract the burned area.

Key results

The accuracy of burned area extraction in this paper is 91.67%, an improvement of 33.70% compared to the pixel-based classification results.

Conclusions

Compared with the pixel-based method, our method effectively suppresses the salt-and-pepper noise and improves the SAR burned area extraction accuracy.

Implications

The fire monitoring method using SAR images provides a reference for extracting the burned area under continuous cloud or smoke cover.

背景合成孔径雷达(SAR)的穿透云层和雾气的能力使其在森林火灾进展监测中具有应用潜力;然而,SAR 遥感绘制燃烧区地图时存在提取精度低和明显的椒盐噪声等问题。目的 本文提供了一种基于充分利用火灾前后双偏振合成孔径雷达图像中多个不同维度特征参数的变化来精确提取燃烧面积的方法。方法 本文介绍了利用双偏振合成孔径雷达图像结合多尺度分割和无监督分类监测森林火灾进展的方法。我们首先利用多场景 Sentinel-1 图像构建了偏振特征和纹理特征数据集。然后使用多尺度分割算法生成对象以抑制椒盐噪声,接着使用无监督分类方法提取烧毁区域。主要结果本文的烧伤面积提取准确率为 91.67%,比基于像素的分类结果提高了 33.70%。结论与基于像素的方法相比,我们的方法有效地抑制了椒盐噪声,提高了合成孔径雷达烧毁面积提取的准确性。意义利用合成孔径雷达图像的火灾监测方法为提取连续云层或烟雾覆盖下的燃烧面积提供了参考。
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引用次数: 0
Accounting for among-sampler variability improves confidence in fuel moisture content field measurements 考虑取样器之间的差异可提高燃料含水率实地测量的可信度
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2023-12-21 DOI: 10.1071/wf23078
Kerryn Little, Laura J. Graham, Nicholas Kettridge
Background

Direct fuel moisture content measurements are critical for characterising spatio-temporal variations in fuel flammability and for informing fire danger assessments. However, among-sampler variability (systematic differences in measurements between samplers) likely contributes to fuel moisture measurement variability in most field campaigns.

Aims

We assessed the magnitude of among-sampler variability in plot-scale Calluna vulgaris fuel moisture measurements.

Methods

Seventeen individuals collected samples from six fuel layers hourly from 10:00 hours to 18:00 hours. We developed mixed effects models to estimate the among-sampler variability.

Key results

Fuel moisture measurements were highly variable between individuals sampling within the same plot, fuel layer, and time of day. The importance of among-sampler variability in explaining total measured fuel moisture variance was fuel layer dependent. Among-sampler variability explained the greatest amount of measurement variation in litter (58%) and moss (45%) and was more important for live (19%) than dead (4%) Calluna.

Conclusions

Both consideration of samplers within the experimental design and incorporation of sampler metadata during statistical analysis will improve understanding of spatio-temporal fuel moisture dynamics obtained from field-based studies.

Implications

Accounting for among-sampler variability in fuel moisture campaigns opens opportunities to utilise sampling teams and citizen science research to examine fuel moisture dynamics over large spatio-temporal scales.

背景直接测量燃料含水量对于描述燃料可燃性的时空变化以及为火灾危险评估提供信息至关重要。然而,取样器之间的变异(取样器之间测量结果的系统性差异)可能是大多数野外活动中燃料水分测量变异的原因。目的我们评估了在地块尺度的Calluna vulgaris燃料水分测量中取样器之间的差异程度。方法17 个人从 10:00 到 18:00 每小时从六个燃料层采集样本。我们建立了混合效应模型来估计取样器之间的变异性。主要结果在同一地块、燃料层和一天中的不同时间段采样的个体之间,燃料水分测量值的差异很大。取样器之间的差异在解释燃料水分测量总差异方面的重要性取决于燃料层。取样员之间的差异对枯落物(58%)和苔藓(45%)测量差异的解释最大,对活(19%)Calluna 比死(4%)Calluna 的解释更重要。结论在实验设计中考虑采样器以及在统计分析过程中纳入采样器元数据都将提高对野外研究获得的时空燃料水分动态的理解。意义在燃料湿度活动中考虑取样器之间的变异性为利用取样团队和公民科学研究来研究大时空尺度的燃料湿度动态提供了机会。
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引用次数: 0
Phosphorus chemistry in plant charcoal: interplay between biomass composition and thermal condition 植物木炭中的磷化学成分:生物质成分与热条件之间的相互作用
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.1071/wf23096
Yudi Wu, Lois M. Pae, Rixiang Huang
Background

Vegetation fire may change Phosphorus (P) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems through converting biomass into fire residues.

Aim

The aim of this study was to understand the chemistry and mobility of P in fire residues to help reveal P thermochemistry during biomass burning and post-fire P cycling.

Methods

A combination of sequential extraction, liquid 31P NMR and P K-edge XANES was used to obtain quantitative P speciation and explain P solubilisation behaviours of charcoal.

Key results

Despite varying diverse P species existing in raw biomass, only two P structural moieties – orthophosphate and pyrophosphate – were identified in charcoal. However, relative abundance of pyrophosphate differs greatly among charcoal samples from different biomass types, ranging between 0 and 40% of total extractable P. Although P K-edge XANES data indicates abundant soluble phosphate minerals, most P (70–90%) is likely occluded physically in the charcoal. The bicarbonate-extractable P (the Olsen-P) varies significantly and cannot be explained by surface P concentration or elemental stoichiometry alone.

Conclusion and implications

The results suggest the importance of starting biomass P speciation (i.e. molecular structure and complexation environment) and thermal conditions in controlling P speciation and availability in charcoal. The different P chemistry between charcoal and ash suggests the importance of fire types and severity in disturbing the P cycle.

背景植被火灾可能会通过将生物质转化为火灾残留物而改变陆地生态系统中的磷(P)循环。目的 本研究旨在了解火灾残留物中磷的化学性质和流动性,以帮助揭示生物质燃烧和火灾后磷循环过程中的磷热化学过程。方法采用顺序萃取、液态 31P NMR 和 P K-edge XANES 组合来获得定量的 P 标示并解释木炭的 P 溶解行为。主要结果尽管原始生物质中存在多种不同的 P 种类,但在木炭中只确定了两种 P 结构分子--正磷酸盐和焦磷酸盐。尽管 P K-edge XANES 数据表明存在丰富的可溶性磷酸盐矿物,但大部分 P(70-90%)可能被物理地封闭在木炭中。碳酸氢盐可萃取 P(奥尔森-P)变化很大,不能仅用表面 P 浓度或元素化学计量来解释。结果表明,起始生物质中 P 的种类(即分子结构和络合环境)和热条件对控制木炭中 P 的种类和可用性非常重要。木炭和灰烬之间不同的磷化学性质表明了火灾类型和严重程度在扰乱磷循环方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The role of people, parks and precipitation on the frequency and timing of fires in a sub-Saharan savanna ecosystem 人、公园和降水对撒哈拉以南热带草原生态系统火灾发生频率和时间的影响
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1071/wf23020
Julius R. Dewald, Jane Southworth, Imelda K. Moise
Background

The Lupande Game Management Area (GMA) and the adjacent South Luangwa National Park (NP) in Zambia allow comparison of fire regimes in African savannas with different human densities.

Aims

To investigate humans’ effects on fire regimes within a sub-Saharan savanna ecosystem.

Methods

We delineated burned areas for the Lupande GMA and South Luangwa NP using 156 Landsat images from 1989 to 2017. We performed comparisons of fire regimes between the Lupande GMA and South Luangwa NP using various burned area variables and assessed their association with precipitation.

Key results

Overall, and compared with the South Luangwa NP, the Lupande GMA had a greater extent of burned area and a higher frequency of repeat burns. The Lupande GMA experienced fires earlier in the fire season, which are typically less damaging to woody vegetation. We observed a significant positive relationship between precipitation and burned area trends in South Luangwa NP but not in the Lupande GMA, suggesting that precipitation increases burned area in South Luangwa NP.

Conclusions

Results support the theory that human fire management mitigates climate’s effect, particularly rainfall, on interannual burned area variation.

Implications

This study shows that human-dominated fire regimes in savannas can alter the influence of precipitation.

背景赞比亚的卢潘德狩猎管理区(GMA)和邻近的南卢安瓜国家公园(NP)可用于比较不同人类密度的非洲热带稀树草原的火灾机制。目的研究人类对撒哈拉以南热带稀树草原生态系统中火势的影响。方法我们利用 1989 年至 2017 年期间的 156 幅 Landsat 图像划定了 Lupande GMA 和南琅瓦国家公园的燃烧区域。我们利用各种焚烧面积变量对卢班德全球海洋环境状况评估区和南卢安瓜国家公园的火灾机制进行了比较,并评估了它们与降水的关系。主要结果总体而言,与南琅瓦国家公园相比,卢潘德全球海洋环境状况评估区的焚烧面积更大,重复焚烧的频率更高。鲁班德全球海洋环境状况评估区的火灾发生在火灾季节的早期,通常对木本植被的破坏较小。我们在南琅瓦国家公园观察到降水量与烧毁面积趋势之间存在明显的正相关关系,而在卢潘德全球海洋环境状况评估区则没有,这表明降水量增加了南琅瓦国家公园的烧毁面积。结论研究结果支持这样一种理论,即人类火灾管理减轻了气候(尤其是降水)对年际烧毁面积变化的影响。意义这项研究表明,人类主导的热带稀树草原火灾机制可以改变降水的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger 澳大利亚气候驱动因素与每周极端火险之间的关系
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1071/wf23060
Rachel Taylor, Andrew G. Marshall, Steven Crimp, Geoffrey J. Cary, Sarah Harris, Samuel Sauvage
Aims

We investigate the associations between major Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger throughout the year.

Methods

We use a composite-based approach, relating the probability of top-decile observed potential fire intensity to the positive and negative modes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden–Julian Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, split-flow blocking and Subtropical Ridge Tasman Highs, both concurrently and at a variety of lag times.

Key results

The chance of extreme fire danger increases over broad regions of the continent in response to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, the negative mode of the Southern Annular Mode, split-flow Blocking Index and Subtropical Ridge Tasman High, and Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 5, 6, 2 and 8 in Austral summer, autumn, winter and spring respectively. These relationships exist not only concurrently, but also when a climate event occurs up to 6 months ahead of the season of interest.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the importance of considering the influence of diverse climate drivers, at a range of temporal lag periods, in understanding and predicting extreme fire danger.

Implications

The results of this study may aid in the development of effective fire management strategies and decision-making processes to mitigate the impacts of fire events in Australia.

目的我们研究了澳大利亚主要气候驱动因素与全年每周极端火险之间的关联。方法我们采用了一种基于复合的方法,将观测到的潜在火灾强度最高十等分的概率与厄尔尼诺南方涛动、印度洋偶极子、马登-朱利安涛动、南方环流模式、分流阻塞和副热带脊塔斯曼高地的正负模式联系起来,同时并在不同的滞后时间内进行观测。主要结果在澳大利亚夏季、秋季、冬季和春季,随着厄尔尼诺现象和印度洋偶极子正极现象、南环模式负极模式、分流阻塞指数和亚热带海脊塔斯曼高点以及马登-朱利安涛动第 5、6、2 和 8 阶段的出现,澳大利亚大陆广大地区发生极端火险的几率增加。这些关系不仅同时存在,而且当气候事件发生在相关季节之前长达 6 个月时也存在。结论这些发现突出表明,在了解和预测极端火灾危险时,必须考虑各种气候驱动因素在不同时间滞后期的影响。意义本研究的结果可能有助于制定有效的火灾管理策略和决策过程,以减轻火灾事件对澳大利亚的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Occupational and environmental factors influencing morale of United States federal wildland firefighters 影响美国联邦野地消防员士气的职业和环境因素
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1071/wf22098
Rachel M. Granberg, Ting Shen, Seth W. Pearson, Robin M. Verble
Background

Wildland firefighters have physically and psychologically demanding jobs that can result in social, economic and health-related stress. Previous studies have examined the physiological and physical effects of a career in wildland fire, but fewer studies have addressed psychological effects, and to date, none have directly analysed the hiring and work experiences of wildland firefighters.

Aims

We surveyed work experiences, health and well-being, and morale of wildland firefighters, explored factors that can improve recruitment and retention, and summarised broad patterns.

Methods

We conducted a voluntary anonymous survey of 708 federal wildland firefighters via an online platform over 2 months in 2022.

Key results

Respondents reported dissatisfaction with recruitment and hiring processes, low base salaries, poor mental health outcomes, and health and safety concerns. Respondents also reported the high importance of training, performance feedback and work environment to their retention in the field. We found significant effects of wildland firefighting on family status.

Conclusions

Wildland firefighters report experiencing low morale, financial stress, personal life strain and poor mental health outcomes.

Implications

These data provide a framework to establish future policy and research priorities and highlight the need for organisational actions and change.

背景野地消防员的工作对体力和心理要求都很高,可能会造成社会、经济和健康方面的压力。以往的研究已经考察了野外消防职业对生理和身体的影响,但涉及心理影响的研究较少,迄今为止,还没有一项研究直接分析了野外消防员的招聘和工作经历。目的我们调查了野地消防员的工作经历、健康和幸福感以及士气,探讨了可以改善招聘和留用的因素,并总结了大致的模式。方法我们在 2022 年通过在线平台对 708 名联邦野外消防员进行了为期 2 个月的自愿匿名调查。主要结果受访者对招聘和雇佣流程、基本工资低、心理健康状况不佳以及健康和安全问题表示不满。受访者还表示,培训、绩效反馈和工作环境对他们留在野外工作非常重要。我们发现,野外消防工作对家庭状况有很大影响。结论野外消防员报告称,他们的士气低落、经济压力大、个人生活紧张以及心理健康状况不佳。影响这些数据为制定未来政策和研究重点提供了一个框架,并强调了组织行动和变革的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Using PODs to integrate fire and fuels planning 利用 POD 整合火灾和燃料规划
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1071/wf23022
William C. Buettner, Tyler A. Beeton, Courtney A. Schultz, Michael D. Caggiano, Michelle S. Greiner
Background

Potential Wildfire Operational Delineations (PODs) were developed as a pre-season planning tool to promote safe and effective fire response. Past research on PODs has identified uses in an incident management context. There has been little research on how PODs are being utilised in non-incident management contexts to align forest and wildfire planning objectives.

Aims

We sought to understand how actors are adopting and adapting the PODs framework to inform non-incident management, and to identify facilitators, barriers and recommendations.

Methods

We investigated three cases, the San Juan National Forest, the San Isabel National Forest and the Washington Department of Natural Resources, through 13 semi-structured, key informant interviews.

Key results

We found that PODs were helpful for validating fuels treatment plans and supporting communication among agency staff, and with private landowners and collaborators. Challenges included lack of technical knowledge and skills, unclear leadership direction, potential misalignment with other forest management goals and community and agency buy-in to using PODs.

Conclusions

We offer insights into how PODs are being utilised within our case studies and align these findings with diffusion of innovation literature.

Implications

This preliminary research is important given increased funding for PODs in recent legislation and the possibility of broader adoption for fuels treatment planning in the future.

背景野外潜在火灾行动划界(POD)是作为一种季节前规划工具而开发的,旨在促进安全有效的火灾响应。过去关于 POD 的研究已经确定了在事故管理背景下的用途。关于如何在非事故管理背景下利用 POD 来调整森林和野火规划目标的研究则很少。目的我们试图了解参与者如何采用和调整 PODs 框架,为非事件管理提供信息,并确定促进因素、障碍和建议。方法我们对圣胡安国家森林、圣伊莎贝尔国家森林和华盛顿自然资源部这三个案例进行了调查,共进行了 13 次半结构化关键信息访谈。主要结果我们发现,POD 对于验证燃料处理计划、支持机构工作人员之间以及与私人土地所有者和合作者之间的沟通很有帮助。面临的挑战包括缺乏技术知识和技能、领导方向不明确、可能与其他森林管理目标不一致以及社区和机构对使用 POD 的支持。结论我们对案例研究中如何利用 POD 提出了见解,并将这些发现与创新传播文献进行了比对。启示鉴于最近的立法增加了对 POD 的资助,而且未来有可能在燃料处理规划中更广泛地采用 POD,因此这项初步研究非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Drivers of wildfire burn severity in the montane rainforests of northern Vietnam 越南北部山地雨林野火严重程度的驱动因素
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2023-12-02 DOI: 10.1071/wf23026
Pham T. Trang, Neal J. Enright, Thuan Chu, Margaret E. Andrew
Background

Fire impacts and drivers of wildfire burn severity remain poorly understood for tropical forests.

Aims

To assess variation and environmental drivers of burn severity for nine forest fires in northern Vietnam.

Methods

Burn severity was estimated from satellite image analyses, and associations with a remotely sensed index of annual fuel production, topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect) and weather variables (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed) were evaluated.

Key results

High severity burn areas were found to be fairly uncommon and were associated with steeper, south-west facing slopes, higher elevations and lower fuel abundance. There was a weak tendency for higher burn severity on days with lower relative humidity.

Conclusions

Conditions that increase fire intensity and the dryness and flammability of fuels are important contributors to high severity fires in wet tropical systems. However, the pattern of higher burn severity at high elevation, where forests tend to be denser and more humid, is counter to this interpretation and may be due to species compositional changes and greater vulnerability of high-elevation forests to fire impacts.

Implications

Better understanding of fire risk and where in the montane forests of northern Vietnam fires are most likely to burn at high severity will assist forest fire management and recovery strategies.

对热带森林的火灾影响和野火燃烧严重程度的驱动因素仍然知之甚少。目的评估越南北部9起森林火灾烧伤严重程度的变化和环境驱动因素。方法通过卫星图像分析估计燃烧严重程度,并与年燃料产量、地形因素(海拔、坡度、坡向)和天气变量(温度、降雨量、相对湿度、风速)的遥感指数进行关联评估。关键结果:重度烧伤区域相当罕见,并且与更陡峭的西南面斜坡、更高的海拔和更低的燃料丰度有关。在相对湿度较低的日子里,烧伤严重程度有较弱的趋势。结论火灾强度的增加、燃料的干燥性和可燃性是导致热带湿系统高烈度火灾的重要因素。然而,在高海拔地区,森林往往密度更大、湿度更大,燃烧严重程度更高的模式与这种解释相反,可能是由于物种组成的变化和高海拔森林对火灾影响的更大脆弱性。更好地了解火灾风险以及越南北部山区森林中最可能发生严重火灾的地方,将有助于森林火灾管理和恢复战略。
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引用次数: 0
Fighting wildfires: predicting initial attack success across Victoria, Australia 扑灭野火:预测澳大利亚维多利亚州的初步袭击成功
IF 3.1 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY Pub Date : 2023-12-02 DOI: 10.1071/wf23053
M. P. Plucinski, S. Dunstall, N. F. McCarthy, S. Deutsch, E. Tartaglia, C. Huston, A. G. Stephenson
Background

The small portion of fires that escape initial attack (IA) have the greatest impacts on communities and incur most suppression costs. Early identification of fires with potential for escaping IA can prompt fire managers to order additional suppression resources, issue timely public warnings and plan longer-term containment strategies when they have the greatest potential for reducing a fire’s impact.

Aims

To develop IA models from a state-wide incident dataset containing novel variables that can be used to estimate the probability of IA when a new fire has been reported.

Methods

A large dataset was compiled from bushfire incident records, geographical data and weather observations across the state of Victoria (n = 35 154) and was used to develop logistic regression models predicting the probability of initial attack success in grassland-, forest- and shrubland-dominated vegetation types.

Key results

Models including input variables describing weather conditions, travel delay, slope and distance from roads were able to reasonably discriminate fires contained to 5 ha.

Conclusions and implications

The models can be used to estimate IA success – using information available when the location of a new fire can be estimated – and they can be used to prompt planning for larger fires.

一小部分躲过初始攻击(IA)的火灾对社区的影响最大,造成的灭火成本也最高。及早发现有可能逃过消防监督的火灾,可以促使消防管理人员订购额外的灭火资源,及时发布公共警告,并在最有可能减少火灾影响的情况下制定长期遏制战略。目的从包含新变量的全州事件数据集开发IA模型,用于在报告新火灾时估计IA的概率。方法从维多利亚州的森林火灾事件记录、地理数据和天气观测数据(n = 35 154)中编制了一个大型数据集,并使用该数据集建立逻辑回归模型,预测草地、森林和灌丛为主的植被类型的初始攻击成功概率。包括描述天气条件、交通延误、坡度和距离道路的输入变量在内的模型能够合理地区分5公顷范围内的火灾。结论和意义这些模型可以用来估计人工智能的成功程度——在可以估计新火灾的位置时使用可用的信息——并且它们可以用来促进对更大火灾的规划。
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引用次数: 0
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