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Spatial distribution of ground-motion variability in broadband ground-motion simulations 宽带地震动模拟中地震动变异性的空间分布
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.1785/0120170150
A. Iwaki, T. Maeda, N. Morikawa, H. Fujiwara
Ground-motion prediction for a scenario earthquake requires evaluation of both the average ground-motion level and ground-motion variability due to model uncertainties. This study aims to evaluate the ground-motion variability due to aleatory variability of the source parameters by modeling ground motion of the 2000 Tottori earthquake (strike-slip type) and the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake (reverse-fault type). The source models are based on the characterized source model by the “recipe” (HERP, 2016) with fault location, size, and geometry as given parameters. Aleatory variability for the three source parameters is considered: (1) asperity location, (2) rupture initiation point, and (3) seismic moment. Two asperities are randomly located on the fault with no overlapping. A rupture initiation point is chosen randomly from the 2 km grids on the fault. Seismic moment M0 is sampled from a normal distribution in which the mean value is given by the M0-S relation (S being the fault area) by Irikura and Miyake (2001) and mean+2σ equals to 2M0. Short-period level A, another important parameter in the characterized source model, is derived from A-M0 relation by Dan et al. (2001). Ground motion for each earthquake is simulated by a hybrid approach; 3D FDM (Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999) for long periods (> 1 s) and the stochastic Green’s function method (Dan and Sato, 1998) for short periods (< 1 s), using a set of 50 source models and a 3D velocity model of J-SHIS v2 (Fujiwara et al., 2012). For the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake, simulations using a simple 1D stratified velocity model are also conducted in order to exclude the effects of the complicated subsurface structure around the source area. From the ground-motion simulation results with 50 source models for each earthquake, standard deviation (SD) of ground-motion indexes, ln of 5% damped acceleration response (Sa), PGA, and PGV, are analyzed at 10 km interval mesh. Distance and azimuthal dependence of SD are observed; the characteristics of the spatial distribution of SD differ from short periods to long periods. It is also found that the spatial distribution of SD is largely distorted by the complicated subsurface velocity structure for the Chuetsu earthquake. As a step toward constructing a model of ground-motion variability in ground-motion prediction for a scenario earthquake, we attempt to fit the SD, each for strike-slip type and reverse-fault type, with a simple regression model using the fault distance and directivity parameters. Effects of variability in other source parameters, such as rupture velocity and source time function, should be studied in our future works. Modeling variabilities in such source parameters requires investigation in physicsor empirical-based criteria.
模拟地震的地震动预测需要评估平均地震动水平和由于模式不确定性而引起的地震动变率。本文通过对2000年鸟取县地震(走滑型)和2004年中越地震(逆断层型)的地震动模拟,评价了震源参数突变引起的地震动变异性。源模型基于“配方”(HERP, 2016)的特征源模型,以断层位置、大小和几何形状为给定参数。考虑了三个震源参数的变异性:(1)凸起位置,(2)破裂起始点,(3)地震矩。两个凸起随机分布在断层上,没有重叠。从断层上的2公里网格中随机选择一个破裂起始点。地震矩M0从正态分布中采样,其中平均值由iirikura和Miyake(2001)的M0-S关系给出(S为断层面积),平均值+2σ等于2M0。短周期水平A是特征源模型中的另一个重要参数,由Dan等人(2001)从A- m0关系推导而来。用混合方法模拟每次地震的地面运动;使用一组50个源模型和J-SHIS v2三维速度模型(Fujiwara et al., 2012),长周期(> 1 s)的3D FDM (Aoi and Fujiwara, 1999)和短周期(< 1 s)的随机Green’s函数方法(Dan and Sato, 1998)。对于2004年的中越地震,为了排除震源周围复杂地下结构的影响,也采用了简单的一维分层速度模型进行了模拟。利用50个震源模型对每次地震的地震动模拟结果,分析了10 km间隔网格上地震动指标的标准差(SD)、5%阻尼加速度响应的ln (Sa)、PGA和PGV。观察SD的距离和方位依赖性;短周期和长周期SD的空间分布特征不同。中越地震复杂的地下速度结构极大地扭曲了SD的空间分布。作为构建情景地震地震动预测中地震动变率模型的一步,我们尝试使用断层距离和指向性参数的简单回归模型拟合走滑类型和逆断层类型的SD。其他震源参数(如破裂速度和震源时间函数)变化的影响应在我们未来的工作中加以研究。在这样的源参数建模的可变性需要调查在物理或经验为基础的标准。
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引用次数: 3
An observing system simulation experiment for FORMOSAT-5/AIP probing topside ionospheric plasma irregularities by using DEMETER/IAP 利用DEMETER/IAP探测上层电离层等离子体不规则性的观测系统模拟实验
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2016.08.18.01(EOF5)
Jann‐Yenq Liu, Yang‐Yi Sun, C. Chao, Shih‐Ping Chen, M. Parrot
The ion density probed by IAP (Instrument d'Analyse du Plasma) on board the DEMETER (Detection of ElectroMagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite is used to find whether the science payload of Advanced Ionospheric Probe (AIP) on board FORMOSAT-5 can be employed to observe space weather of ionospheric plasma irregularities. The low-latitude irregularities within ±15° dip latitudes of the DEMETER/IAP ion density are nighttime phenomena, and become prominent in the South America-Central Africa sector almost all year round, especially during May to August. The high-latitude irregularities of the DEMETER/ IAP ion density appear around ±65° dip latitude worldwide in both daytime and nighttime, and become very intense in the winter and the equinox month/hemisphere. DEMETER/IAP results show that FORMOSAT-5/AIP can be used to monitor space weather of ionospheric daytime/nighttime plasma irregularities in not only the low-but also high-latitude ionosphere.
利用DEMETER卫星上等离子体分析仪器(IAP)探测到的离子密度,探讨FORMOSAT-5卫星上先进电离层探测器(AIP)的科学载荷能否用于观测电离层等离子体不规则的空间天气。DEMETER/IAP离子密度在±15°纬度范围内的低纬度不规则现象是夜间现象,在南美洲-中非地区几乎全年都很突出,特别是在5 - 8月。在全球范围内,DEMETER/ IAP离子密度的高纬度不规则性在纬度±65°左右出现,并在冬季和春分月/半球变得非常强烈。DEMETER/IAP结果表明,FORMOSAT-5/AIP不仅可以用于低纬度电离层,而且可以用于高纬度电离层的日间/夜间等离子体不规则空间天气监测。
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引用次数: 4
The lack of westerly wind bursts in unmaterialized El Niño years 西风的缺乏在未具体化的厄尔Niño年爆发
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0291.1
A. Seiki, Y. Takayabu, T. Hasegawa, K. Yoneyama
AbstractThe lack of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) when atmospheric intraseasonal variability (ISV) events occur from boreal spring to autumn is investigated by comparing two types of El Nino years with unmaterialized El Nino (UEN) years. Although high ocean heat content buildup and several ISV events propagating eastward are observed in all three types of years, few WWBs accompany these in the UEN years. The eddy kinetic energy budget analysis based on ISV shows that mean westerly winds in the lower troposphere facilitate the development of eddy disturbances, including WWBs, through convergence and meridional shear of zonal winds. In the UEN years, these westerly winds are retracted westward and do not reach the equatorial central Pacific mainly due to interannual components. In addition, positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific, which are conducive to active convection, spread widely in a meridional direction centered on 15°N. Both westward-retracted mean westerlies and off-equator...
摘要通过对比两类厄尔尼诺年和非物化厄尔尼诺年,研究了北半球春季至秋季大气季节内变率(ISV)事件发生时西风暴(WWBs)的缺失。虽然在所有三种类型的年份中都观察到高海洋热含量积累和一些向东传播的ISV事件,但在UEN年中很少有WWBs伴随这些事件。基于ISV的涡旋动能收支分析表明,对流层低层平均西风通过纬向风的辐合和经向切变促进了涡旋扰动(包括涡旋扰动)的发展。在un年,由于年际因素,这些西风向西收缩,没有到达赤道中太平洋。此外,西太平洋海温正异常在以15°N为中心的经向方向上广泛传播,有利于对流活动。向西收缩意味着西风带和赤道外。
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引用次数: 2
Long-term monitoring of land surface phenological changes 陆地表面物候变化的长期监测
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10500000.1
N. Tsutsumida
Land surface phenology (LSP) is associated with climate over space and time, and the monitoring of LSP help understandings of the terrestrial environmental changes. The LSP is often inferred by satellite observation, and long-term and regularly composite satellite imagery is now freely available. In this study, we demonstrate how LSP changes over space and time at the global scale over the last three decades by using GIMMS3g datasets. We focus on the magnitude and the timing of the peak of yearly phenological activity, estimated from a harmonic analysis. The first harmonic curve is regarded as a proxy of the overall productivity of vegetation and the second one is interpreted as a sensitive bimodal system changes. Results show the long-term trend of LSP changes; for example the peak of phenogical activity tend to be earlier in high-latitude regions.
陆面物候与气候的时空关系密切,对陆面物候的监测有助于对陆地环境变化的认识。LSP通常是通过卫星观测推断出来的,现在可以免费获得长期和定期合成的卫星图像。在这项研究中,我们通过使用GIMMS3g数据集,展示了LSP在过去三十年中在全球尺度上随空间和时间的变化。我们的重点是每年物候活动的峰值的幅度和时间,从谐波分析估计。第一次谐波曲线被认为是植被整体生产力的代表,第二次谐波曲线被解释为一个敏感的双峰系统变化。结果显示了LSP的长期变化趋势;例如,高纬度地区物候活动的高峰往往更早。
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引用次数: 0
In situ X-ray diffraction studies of hydrous aluminosilicate at high pressure and temperature 高压高温下含水硅酸铝的原位x射线衍射研究
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.2465/JMPS.170714
R. Abe, Y. Shibazaki, S. Ozawa, I. Ohira, H. Tobe, A. Suzuki
In situ X–ray diffraction studies of the phase relation of Al2SiO4(OH)2 were conducted within a pressure range of 19.7–32.2 GPa and a temperature range of 800–1600 °C. We observed the coexistence of δ–AlOOH and stishovite at 31.0 GPa and 1500 °C and the formation of phase Egg together with corundum at 30.6 GPa and 1600 °C. Our results indicate that phase Egg is stable at least up to 31 GPa and 1600 °C and should be the important water carrier after the avalanche of the stagnant slab to a depth of approximately 900 km in the lower mantle.
在压力范围为19.7 ~ 32.2 GPa,温度范围为800 ~ 1600℃的条件下,对Al2SiO4(OH)2的相关系进行了原位x射线衍射研究。在31.0 GPa和1500℃时,δ-AlOOH和辉石共存,在30.6 GPa和1600℃时,与刚玉形成Egg相。研究结果表明,Egg相至少在31 GPa和1600℃时是稳定的,并且应该是下地幔停滞板块雪崩至约900 km深度后的重要水载体。
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引用次数: 7
A new perspective of the subduction zone derived from the Ocean Drilling Program for the Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiments (NanTroSEIZE) 南开槽孕震带实验(NanTroSEIZE)海洋钻探计划对俯冲带的新认识
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.5575/GEOSOC.2017.0069
G. Kimura, H. Tobin, M. Kinoshita
The NanTroSEIZE project has been one of the most complex and challenging scientific ocean drilling projects in history, representing a milestone for the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (2005–2013) and the current International Ocean Discovery Program (2013–013) and the current International Ocean Discovery Program (2013fic ocseismogenesis of the Nankai Trough is now approaching the final stage; i.e., directly sampling, analyzing, and monitoring the plate boundary fault system responsible for historically recurring megaearthquakes and associated tsunamis. The study area is located southeast of Kii Peninsula and comprises a transect of drill sites extending from the Kumano Basin across the Nankai Trough to the incoming Philippine Sea Plate. The drilling of the Nankai seismogenic subduction zone, initiated in 2007, has resulted in the re-evaluation of previously accepted geological models. The main findings are as follows: 1) The Nankai forearc grew intermittently between ~6 and ~2 Ma due to rapid terrestrial sediment supply, resulting in the formation of a hanging wall wedge as a result of the occurrence of great earthquakes. 2) Slip along the plate boundary megathrust and along the associated splay fault has previously reached as far as the Nankai trough and ocean floor. 3) The fault, composed of clay-rich gouge, is weak in both static and dynamic cases. 4) The in situ stress conditions of the accretionary wedge and incoming Philippine Sea Plate are well constrained, and the horizontal compressional stress, parallel to the direction of plate convergence, suggests tectonic loading of accretionary sediments, implying a possible stress buildup that could result in the next great Nankai earthquake. 5) Borehole observatories and an ocean floor network recorded the earthquake, tsunami, and slow slips along the megathrust on 1 April 2016, and represent a new and innovative technology for application in the field of ocean floor science.
NanTroSEIZE项目是历史上最复杂和最具挑战性的科学海洋钻探项目之一,是综合海洋钻探计划(2005-2013)和当前国际海洋发现计划(2013-013)的里程碑,目前国际海洋发现计划(2013)南开海槽的地震发生已接近最后阶段;也就是说,直接取样,分析和监测历史上经常发生的大地震和相关海啸的板块边界断层系统。研究区位于Kii半岛东南部,包括从熊野盆地穿过南开海槽到进入菲律宾海板块的钻探点样带。2007年开始的南开发震俯冲带钻探,对以前公认的地质模型进行了重新评价。主要研究结果如下:1)南开前弧在~6 ~ ~2 Ma期间,由于陆相沉积物的快速补给,形成了断续发育的上盘楔。2)沿板块边界大逆冲断层及其伴生的展斜断层的滑动已达南开海槽和洋底。(3)断层由富泥断层组成,在静、动两种情况下均较弱。4)吸积楔和来袭菲律宾海板块的地应力条件受到很好的约束,平行于板块辐合方向的水平纵压应力显示了吸积性沉积物的构造加载,暗示了下一次南开大地震可能发生的应力积累。5)钻孔观测站和海底网络记录了2016年4月1日沿巨型逆冲断层的地震、海啸和慢滑,代表了海底科学领域应用的一种新的创新技术。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Koshu Seamount on the Development of Baroclinic Instability Leading to the Kuroshio Large Meander 九州海山对导致黑潮大曲流的斜压不稳定发展的影响
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.1175/JPO-D-17-0050.1
Yuki Tanaka, T. Hibiya
AbstractThe Kuroshio south of Japan shows bimodal path fluctuations between the large meander (LM) path and the nonlarge meander (NLM) path. The transition from the NLM path to the LM path is triggered by a small meander generated off southwestern Japan. The small meander first propagates eastward (downstream) along the Kuroshio and then rapidly amplifies over Koshu Seamount, located about 200 km south of Japan, leading to the formation of the LM path of the Kuroshio. Although Koshu Seamount is essential for the rapid amplification of the small meander, the underlying physical mechanism is not fully understood. In this study, the role of Koshu Seamount is revisited using a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model that takes into account the effects of bottom topography. Numerical experiments show that the transition from the NLM path to the LM path can be successfully reproduced only when bottom topography mimicking Koshu Seamount is incorporated. In this case, the upper-layer meander trough is rapidly amplified...
摘要日本南部黑潮呈现出大曲流(LM)路径与非大曲流(NLM)路径的双峰起伏。从南纬向南纬的转变是由日本西南部产生的一个小曲流触发的。小曲流首先沿着黑潮向东(下游)传播,然后迅速扩大到位于日本以南约200公里的Koshu海山,形成黑潮的LM路径。虽然古州海山对小曲流的快速扩大是必不可少的,但其潜在的物理机制尚不完全清楚。在这项研究中,使用考虑底部地形影响的两层准地转模型重新审视了Koshu海山的作用。数值实验结果表明,只有结合模拟古州海山的海底地形,才能成功地再现从低海拔路径到低海拔路径的过渡。在这种情况下,上层蜿蜒槽被迅速放大…
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引用次数: 6
Frontogenesis in the Agulhas Return Current region simulated by a high-resolution CGCM 高分辨率CGCM模拟阿古拉斯回流区的锋生
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.1175/JPO-D-17-0038.1
Shun Ohishi, T. Tozuka, M. Cronin
AbstractDetailed mechanisms for frontogenesis/frontolysis of the sea surface temperature (SST) front in the Agulhas Return Current (ARC) region are investigated using outputs from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. The SST front is maintained throughout the year through an approximate balance between frontolysis by surface heat flux and frontogenesis by horizontal advection. Although a southward (northward) cross-isotherm flow on the northern (southern) side of the front is weaker than a strong eastward along-isotherm current in the frontal region, this cross-isotherm confluent flow advects warmer (cooler) temperature toward the SST front north (south) of the front and acts as the dominant frontogenesis mechanism. In addition, stronger (weaker) frontogenesis in austral summer (winter) is attributed to the stronger (weaker) cross-isotherm confluence, which may be linked to seasonal variations of the Agulhas Current, ARC, and Antarctic Circumpolar Current. On the other hand, the contributi...
摘要利用高分辨率大气环流耦合模式,研究了阿古拉斯环流(ARC)区域海温锋生/锋解的详细机制。海温锋是通过地表热通量的锋解和水平平流的锋生的近似平衡来维持全年的。尽管锋面北(南)侧向南(北)方向的横贯等温线流弱于锋面区域的强向东等温线流,但这种横贯等温线合流将较暖(冷)的温度平流向锋面北(南)方向的海温锋面,成为锋面形成的主导机制。此外,夏季(冬季)的强(弱)锋生归因于强(弱)跨等温线合流,这可能与阿古拉斯流、ARC和南极环极流的季节变化有关。另一方面,……
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引用次数: 10
Dominant synoptic disturbance in the extreme rainfall at Cherrapunji, northeast India, based on 104 years of rainfall data (1902-2005) 基于104年降水资料(1902-2005)的印度东北部Cherrapunji极端降水的主导天气扰动
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0435.1
F. Murata, T. Terao, H. Fujinami, Taiichi Hayashi, Haruhisa Asada, J. Matsumoto, H. Syiemlieh
AbstractThe characteristics of active rainfall spells (ARSs) at Cherrapunji, northeast India, where extreme high rainfall is experienced, and their relationships with large-scale dynamics were studied using daily rainfall data from 1902 to 2005 and Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis from 1958 to 2005. Extreme high daily rainfalls occur in association with ARSs. The extremely large amounts of rainfall in the monsoon season are determined by the cumulative rainfall during ARSs. ARSs start when anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) at 850 hPa propagates westward from the South China Sea and western North Pacific, and covers the northern Bay of Bengal. The AAC propagates farther westward and suppresses convection over central India during ARSs at Cherrapunji, and continues for 3 to 14 days. Consequently, a northward shift of the monsoon trough during the “break” in the Indian core region occurs. The westerly wind, which prevails in the northern portion of the AAC, transports moisture toward northeast India and en...
摘要利用1902 ~ 2005年逐日降水资料和1958 ~ 2005年日本55年再分析资料,研究了印度东北部Cherrapunji地区的活动性降雨特征及其与大尺度动力学的关系。极端高的日降雨量与ars有关。季风季节的特大降雨是由ars期间的累积降雨决定的。当850 hPa的异常反气旋环流(AAC)从南海和北太平洋西部向西传播并覆盖孟加拉湾北部时,ars开始。在Cherrapunji的ars期间,AAC进一步向西传播并抑制印度中部的对流,并持续3至14天。因此,在印度核心区的“断裂”期间,季风槽向北移动。在AAC北部盛行的西风,将水汽输送到印度东北部和印度南部。
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引用次数: 15
Frost flowers and sea-salt aerosols over seasonal sea-ice areas in north-western Greenland 格陵兰岛西北部季节性海冰地区的霜花和海盐气溶胶
Pub Date : 2017-03-10 DOI: 10.5194/acp-2016-1094
K. Hara, S. Matoba, M. Hirabayashi, Tetsuhide Yamasaki
Sea salts and halogens in aerosols, frost flowers, and brine play an important role in atmospheric chemistry in polar regions. Simultaneous sampling and observations of frost flowers, brine, and aerosol particles were conducted around Siorapaluk in northwestern Greenland during December 2013 to March 2014. Results show that watersoluble frost flower and brine components are sea-salt components (e.g., Na, Cl, Mg2+, K, Ca2+, Br, and iodine). Concentration factors of sea-salt components of frost flowers and brine relative to seawater were 1.14–3.67. Sea-salt enrichment of Mg2+, K, Ca2+, and halogens (Cl, Br, and iodine) in frost flowers is associated with sea-salt fractionation by precipitation of mirabilite and hydrohalite. High aerosol number concentrations correspond to the occurrence of higher abundance of sea-salt particles in both coarse and fine modes, and blowing snow and strong winds. Aerosol number concentrations, particularly in coarse mode, are increased considerably by release from the sea-ice surface under strong wind conditions. Sulfate depletion by sea-salt fractionation was found to be limited in sea-salt aerosols because of the presence of non-sea-salt (NSS) SO2− 4 . However, coarse and fine sea-salt particles were found to be rich in Mg. Strong Mg enrichment might be more likely to proceed in fine seasalt particles. Magnesium-rich sea-salt particles might be released from the surface of snow and slush layer (brine) on sea ice and frost flowers. Mirabilite-like and ikaite-like particles were identified only in aerosol samples collected near new sea-ice areas. From the field evidence and results from earlier studies, we propose and describe sea-salt cycles in seasonal sea-ice areas.
气溶胶、霜花和盐水中的海盐和卤素在极地大气化学中起着重要作用。2013年12月至2014年3月,在格陵兰西北部的Siorapaluk附近进行了霜花、盐水和气溶胶颗粒的同步采样和观测。结果表明,水溶性霜花和卤水组分主要为海盐组分(Na、Cl、Mg2+、K、Ca2+、Br和碘)。霜花和卤水的海盐组分相对于海水的浓度因子为1.14 ~ 3.67。霜花中Mg2+、K、Ca2+和卤素(Cl、Br和碘)的海盐富集与mirabilite和hydrohalite的沉淀对海盐的分馏有关。高气溶胶数浓度对应于海盐颗粒在粗态和细态中丰度较高的出现,以及吹雪和强风。在强风条件下,海冰表面的释放大大增加了气溶胶数量浓度,特别是在粗模式下。由于非海盐(NSS) SO2−4的存在,海盐分馏导致的硫酸盐耗竭在海盐气溶胶中受到限制。粗海盐和细海盐均富含镁元素。强Mg富集可能更倾向于在细海盐颗粒中进行。富镁海盐颗粒可能从海冰和霜花上的雪和泥层(盐水)表面释放出来。Mirabilite-like和ikite -like颗粒仅在新海冰区附近收集的气溶胶样本中被发现。根据现场证据和早期研究结果,我们提出并描述了季节性海冰区的海盐循环。
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引用次数: 1
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Japan Geoscience Union
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