Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102953
Tianyu Zhao, Jose Escribano, Arnab Majumdar, Washington Yotto Ochieng
This paper presents a robust algorithm for three-dimensional dynamic airspace sectorization, introducing for the first time multilayer traffic networks in the study field. Distinct from widely used meta-heuristic algorithms, this approach delivers consistent results for the same traffic scenario, avoiding the instability of stochastic search techniques. This approach uses a graph-based model, taking the air traffic network as input, based on which we calculate traffic complexity. To quantify the complexity assigned to the network, we employ two parameters: one derives from the traffic scenarios based on flight vectors, and the other from the network topology. Using this complexity-weighted network as input, a multi-layer spectral clustering algorithm is applied to generate the desired number of communities. To achieve an ideal sector structure, we introduce a boundary refinement framework to produce smooth and tightly connected three-dimensional sectors. The performance of the proposed algorithm is validated using three Key Performance Indicators (KPIs): workload, sector flight time, and dynamic density, demonstrating its capability to generate more load-balanced sector configurations compared to both the current UK operational sectors and the widely used Voronoi diagram-based methods. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through eight experiments under both peak and off-peak traffic conditions, including four-hour short-term and four six-hour long-term scenarios, with the number of target sectors kept consistent with the operational configuration. The reduced standard deviations and coefficients of variation of the KPIs indicate that the proposed sectorization achieves a more balanced distribution of traffic loads across sectors. This research provides Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) with an automatic tool for three-dimensional airspace sectorization, enabling more balanced workload distribution while adapting to evolving air traffic flow patterns.
{"title":"Robust 3D dynamic airspace sectorization: A multilayer graph-based approach","authors":"Tianyu Zhao, Jose Escribano, Arnab Majumdar, Washington Yotto Ochieng","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a robust algorithm for three-dimensional dynamic airspace sectorization, introducing for the first time multilayer traffic networks in the study field. Distinct from widely used meta-heuristic algorithms, this approach delivers consistent results for the same traffic scenario, avoiding the instability of stochastic search techniques. This approach uses a graph-based model, taking the air traffic network as input, based on which we calculate traffic complexity. To quantify the complexity assigned to the network, we employ two parameters: one derives from the traffic scenarios based on flight vectors, and the other from the network topology. Using this complexity-weighted network as input, a multi-layer spectral clustering algorithm is applied to generate the desired number of communities. To achieve an ideal sector structure, we introduce a boundary refinement framework to produce smooth and tightly connected three-dimensional sectors. The performance of the proposed algorithm is validated using three Key Performance Indicators (KPIs): workload, sector flight time, and dynamic density, demonstrating its capability to generate more load-balanced sector configurations compared to both the current UK operational sectors and the widely used Voronoi diagram-based methods. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through eight experiments under both peak and off-peak traffic conditions, including four-hour short-term and four six-hour long-term scenarios, with the number of target sectors kept consistent with the operational configuration. The reduced standard deviations and coefficients of variation of the KPIs indicate that the proposed sectorization achieves a more balanced distribution of traffic loads across sectors. This research provides Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) with an automatic tool for three-dimensional airspace sectorization, enabling more balanced workload distribution while adapting to evolving air traffic flow patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102953"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145682223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Airlines increasingly adopt one-brand, multi-AOC (OB-MA) strategies – operating multiple Air Operator Certificates (AOCs) under a single brand identity. Despite their growing prevalence, the strategic rationale and contextual factors driving OB-MA strategy adoption remain underexplored in the academic literature.
This study develops a structured framework for assessing the situational factors that shape the establishment and implementation of OB-MA strategies. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), we identify, classify, and rank 15 key criteria and sub-criteria. Our findings reveal that jurisdictional constraints, strategic trajectory, and organisational lifecycle status are central to the rationale for OB-MA implementation.
This study introduces a distinction between ex-ante qualification criteria – which justify the initial need for OB-MA structures – and ex-post success criteria – which determine their long-term viability. This distinction enhances the practical relevance of the framework, equipping airline executives with a diagnostic tool to assess both the necessity and sustainability of OB-MA strategies in dynamic market environments.
This research offers both theoretical background and practical guidance for OB-MA strategy development and contributes to a more systemic understanding of multi-AOC structures within airline strategy.
{"title":"Beyond the brand: Analysing the rationale and relevance of one-brand, multi-AOC strategies in global airline groups","authors":"Lars-Michael Wendel , Sascha Albers , Wouter Dewulf","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Airlines increasingly adopt one-brand, multi-AOC (OB-MA) strategies – operating multiple Air Operator Certificates (AOCs) under a single brand identity. Despite their growing prevalence, the strategic rationale and contextual factors driving OB-MA strategy adoption remain underexplored in the academic literature.</div><div>This study develops a structured framework for assessing the situational factors that shape the establishment and implementation of OB-MA strategies. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), we identify, classify, and rank 15 key criteria and sub-criteria. Our findings reveal that jurisdictional constraints, strategic trajectory, and organisational lifecycle status are central to the rationale for OB-MA implementation.</div><div>This study introduces a distinction between ex-ante qualification criteria – which justify the initial need for OB-MA structures – and ex-post success criteria – which determine their long-term viability. This distinction enhances the practical relevance of the framework, equipping airline executives with a diagnostic tool to assess both the necessity and sustainability of OB-MA strategies in dynamic market environments.</div><div>This research offers both theoretical background and practical guidance for OB-MA strategy development and contributes to a more systemic understanding of multi-AOC structures within airline strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102952"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-11-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102947
Lijun Bo , Zhen Liu , Tingting Zhang
During the COVID-19 epidemic, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) proposed a rule of international airline incentives and circuit breakers to combat the spread of the new coronavirus. Implementing this rule based on the reward and punishment mechanism has played a crucial role in preventing the spread of COVID-19 in international air transportation. This paper proposes a linear piece-wise reward–punishment mechanism based on a mathematical infectious model to analyze the aviation administration’s implementation and preparation costs. When the number of infections surpasses or dips below penalty or reward thresholds, flights will encounter varying intensities of penalty or receive corresponding rewards. Using probabilistic methods and optimization rules to minimize the expected total costs of implementation and preparation for epidemic prevention, we explicitly find an optimal mechanism by choosing the vectors of thresholds on reward and punishment. Our technical results show that (i) the optimal reward threshold vector is one-dimensional, with this reward threshold coinciding with the first penalty threshold; (ii) the optimal punishment threshold vector is established by progressively incorporating penalty thresholds based on relative preparation costs; (iii) both the values and quantities of penalty thresholds decrease with preparation cost and higher reward or penalty intensities can increase the values of penalty thresholds.
{"title":"Reducing pandemic outbreak risks and economic losses in aviation: A segmented incentive-penalty approach","authors":"Lijun Bo , Zhen Liu , Tingting Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the COVID-19 epidemic, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) proposed a rule of international airline incentives and circuit breakers to combat the spread of the new coronavirus. Implementing this rule based on the reward and punishment mechanism has played a crucial role in preventing the spread of COVID-19 in international air transportation. This paper proposes a linear piece-wise reward–punishment mechanism based on a mathematical infectious model to analyze the aviation administration’s implementation and preparation costs. When the number of infections surpasses or dips below penalty or reward thresholds, flights will encounter varying intensities of penalty or receive corresponding rewards. Using probabilistic methods and optimization rules to minimize the expected total costs of implementation and preparation for epidemic prevention, we explicitly find an optimal mechanism by choosing the vectors of thresholds on reward and punishment. Our technical results show that (i) the optimal reward threshold vector is one-dimensional, with this reward threshold coinciding with the first penalty threshold; (ii) the optimal punishment threshold vector is established by progressively incorporating penalty thresholds based on relative preparation costs; (iii) both the values and quantities of penalty thresholds decrease with preparation cost and higher reward or penalty intensities can increase the values of penalty thresholds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102947"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102936
Georg Hirte , Johannes Jaekel , Hans-Martin Niemeier
The paper examines the horizontal efficiency of aircraft approaches in the lower airspace. We propose two measures for horizontal efficiency and study the determinants, notably air traffic control's choice variables, of both efficiency metrics using robust (MM) and Tobit regression analyses. Our metrics indicate an average deviation from the optimum efficiency of 21.6 % and 19.6 %, respectively. We calculate that these inefficiencies generate approximately 165,088 tons of CO2 emissions and fuel costs of around € 23.8 million per annum. Improving the efficiency of approaches is thus a means to reduce aviation's externalities and lower its negative impact on the climate and noise. The metrics are significantly affected by the volume of flights, aircraft weight, weather threats, and the decision variables of air traffic control, which are runway change, runway choice and route choice. This is evidence that air traffic control can contribute to horizontal efficiency and reduce externalities.
{"title":"Horizontal approach flight efficiency and emissions at the lower airspace","authors":"Georg Hirte , Johannes Jaekel , Hans-Martin Niemeier","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102936","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102936","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper examines the horizontal efficiency of aircraft approaches in the lower airspace. We propose two measures for horizontal efficiency and study the determinants, notably air traffic control's choice variables, of both efficiency metrics using robust (MM) and Tobit regression analyses. Our metrics indicate an average deviation from the optimum efficiency of 21.6 % and 19.6 %, respectively. We calculate that these inefficiencies generate approximately 165,088 tons of CO2 emissions and fuel costs of around € 23.8 million per annum. Improving the efficiency of approaches is thus a means to reduce aviation's externalities and lower its negative impact on the climate and noise. The metrics are significantly affected by the volume of flights, aircraft weight, weather threats, and the decision variables of air traffic control, which are runway change, runway choice and route choice. This is evidence that air traffic control can contribute to horizontal efficiency and reduce externalities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102936"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145682222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102956
Wilmar Calderón-Guevara, Mauricio Sánchez-Silva
The critical importance of intergenerational responsibility has placed sustainable infrastructure development at the forefront of global attention, demanding designs that are highly efficient and adaptable to uncertain demands. To address this need, this article proposes and implements a novel methodology to incorporate flexibility into infrastructure system management, enabling dynamic evaluation of system performance and allowing decision-makers to determine the optimal intervention policy. The framework uses stochastic programming to evaluate a set of management policies across multiple scenarios, thereby defining an optimal, robust planning strategy for an airport system. The methodology was successfully validated through a case study of Colombia’s three primary airports (Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali), demonstrating its practical applicability. Key results indicate that the system should prioritize investments in gate facilities, and the selected policy provides a planning guide that ensures positive returns across the entire network. Finally, the study identifies two critical areas for future work: enhancing runway efficiency through network-wide scheduling and applying this framework to other case studies to maximize investments in infrastructure networks.
{"title":"Flexible planning of dynamic airport infrastructure networks","authors":"Wilmar Calderón-Guevara, Mauricio Sánchez-Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The critical importance of intergenerational responsibility has placed sustainable infrastructure development at the forefront of global attention, demanding designs that are highly efficient and adaptable to uncertain demands. To address this need, this article proposes and implements a novel methodology to incorporate flexibility into infrastructure system management, enabling dynamic evaluation of system performance and allowing decision-makers to determine the optimal intervention policy. The framework uses stochastic programming to evaluate a set of management policies across multiple scenarios, thereby defining an optimal, robust planning strategy for an airport system. The methodology was successfully validated through a case study of Colombia’s three primary airports (Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali), demonstrating its practical applicability. Key results indicate that the system should prioritize investments in gate facilities, and the selected policy provides a planning guide that ensures positive returns across the entire network. Finally, the study identifies two critical areas for future work: enhancing runway efficiency through network-wide scheduling and applying this framework to other case studies to maximize investments in infrastructure networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102956"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102958
Hyunho Jung , John-Paul Clarke
Planning flights in windy conditions is a significant challenge in air transportation. Wind data, derived from updated hourly forecasts available prior to departure, serve as the basis for route planning. However, ensuring timely arrival at the destination airport remains difficult due to inaccuracies and uncertainties in these meteorological forecasts. This challenge is compounded in scenarios involving multi-aircraft, as each flight seeks to minimize resource consumption such as flight time and fuel. Therefore, this study has two aims. First, it seeks to optimize airspeeds while accounting for estimated wind uncertainty in order to conserve fuel while adhering to the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) in single-aircraft operations. The first proposed methodology, referred to as the Optimal Airspeed Search Model, integrates principles from Stochastic Programming (SP) and Receding Horizon Control (RHC) frameworks to determine the most suitable airspeed. To achieve this, the flight is segmented, and a backward-propagation strategy is employed to determine airspeeds for all flight segments. The second aim considers scenarios involving multi-aircraft, assuming in-flight negotiation between aircraft and air traffic control centers to achieve fairness among flights. Using the fairness metric-based model, flight RTAs are adjusted to minimize the fairness metric value while maintaining equitable outcomes. The proposed solution optimizes airspeed, reduces fuel consumption, and negotiates fairness among multi-aircraft under RTA constraints using an integer programming approach with a branch-and-bound optimization method.
{"title":"Fairness metric-based RTA adjustment in the presence of wind uncertainty","authors":"Hyunho Jung , John-Paul Clarke","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Planning flights in windy conditions is a significant challenge in air transportation. Wind data, derived from updated hourly forecasts available prior to departure, serve as the basis for route planning. However, ensuring timely arrival at the destination airport remains difficult due to inaccuracies and uncertainties in these meteorological forecasts. This challenge is compounded in scenarios involving multi-aircraft, as each flight seeks to minimize resource consumption such as flight time and fuel. Therefore, this study has two aims. First, it seeks to optimize airspeeds while accounting for estimated wind uncertainty in order to conserve fuel while adhering to the Required Time of Arrival (RTA) in single-aircraft operations. The first proposed methodology, referred to as the Optimal Airspeed Search Model, integrates principles from Stochastic Programming (SP) and Receding Horizon Control (RHC) frameworks to determine the most suitable airspeed. To achieve this, the flight is segmented, and a backward-propagation strategy is employed to determine airspeeds for all flight segments. The second aim considers scenarios involving multi-aircraft, assuming in-flight negotiation between aircraft and air traffic control centers to achieve fairness among flights. Using the fairness metric-based model, flight RTAs are adjusted to minimize the fairness metric value while maintaining equitable outcomes. The proposed solution optimizes airspeed, reduces fuel consumption, and negotiates fairness among multi-aircraft under RTA constraints using an integer programming approach with a branch-and-bound optimization method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102958"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102939
Nuno Moura Lopes , Manuela Aparicio , Carlos J. Costa , Fátima Trindade Neves , Carlos Bernardino
The transition to Single-Pilot Operations (SPO) represents a transformative evolution in commercial aviation, driven by advances in automation, human–autonomy teaming, and socio-economic imperatives. This study presents a comprehensive literature-informed investigation into SPO's technical, human, organizational, and societal dimensions, supported by a robust bibliometric analysis of over two decades of research. Through a multi-thematic review and framework development, the manuscript identifies eight critical dimensions shaping SPO implementation: human factors and cognitive workload, automation and human–autonomy teaming, the concept of operations and task redistribution, remote support and ground integration, safety and certification, interface and cockpit design, economic feasibility, and public perception. We also propose a new integrated socio-technical framework highlighting the interplay between these domains and the need for trust calibration, adaptive automation, and transparent certification processes. The framework emphasises stakeholder-centric design, highlighting the importance of aligning technological capability with human limitations, operational context, and societal expectations. The limitations of current SPO research, including gaps in real-world validation, interdisciplinary integration, and long-term public trust studies, are discussed. This work provides a roadmap for future research and a strategic orientation for regulators, airlines, and system designers seeking to deploy safe and publicly accepted SPOs.
{"title":"Designing the future of flight: A socio-technical framework for single-pilot operations in commercial aviation","authors":"Nuno Moura Lopes , Manuela Aparicio , Carlos J. Costa , Fátima Trindade Neves , Carlos Bernardino","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102939","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transition to Single-Pilot Operations (SPO) represents a transformative evolution in commercial aviation, driven by advances in automation, human–autonomy teaming, and socio-economic imperatives. This study presents a comprehensive literature-informed investigation into SPO's technical, human, organizational, and societal dimensions, supported by a robust bibliometric analysis of over two decades of research. Through a multi-thematic review and framework development, the manuscript identifies eight critical dimensions shaping SPO implementation: human factors and cognitive workload, automation and human–autonomy teaming, the concept of operations and task redistribution, remote support and ground integration, safety and certification, interface and cockpit design, economic feasibility, and public perception. We also propose a new integrated socio-technical framework highlighting the interplay between these domains and the need for trust calibration, adaptive automation, and transparent certification processes. The framework emphasises stakeholder-centric design, highlighting the importance of aligning technological capability with human limitations, operational context, and societal expectations. The limitations of current SPO research, including gaps in real-world validation, interdisciplinary integration, and long-term public trust studies, are discussed. This work provides a roadmap for future research and a strategic orientation for regulators, airlines, and system designers seeking to deploy safe and publicly accepted SPOs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102939"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145594695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-09DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102954
Ukbe Üsame Uçar
Aircraft emissions during taxi-out operations constitute a significant portion of local air pollution at airports and are rarely modeled in conjunction with operational and meteorological variables. Although numerous studies focus on fuel burn or emission factors based on the ICAO LTO cycle, limited research integrates real-world airport conditions. In this article, CO2, NOx, CO, and HC emissions during the taxi-out phase at Istanbul Airport for the period 2024–2030 were estimated by considering the technical specifications of aircraft, operational delays, and meteorological visibility indices. Detailed analyses were conducted under three categories (Best, Normal, Worst) and 12 scenarios, and the daily intensity of emissions per unit area was evaluated according to the IDLH health risk indicator. In the estimation study, a new hybrid method called the FoREC-HHO algorithm was developed and compared with machine learning, metaheuristic algorithms, and statistical techniques. As a result of the analysis, the FoREC-HHO algorithm showed the highest accuracy rate for all emission types and achieved the lowest MAE values, demonstrating superior prediction performance. According to the analysis findings, in the worst-case scenario, CO2 emissions increased by 80 %, NOx by 76 %, HC by 78 %, and CO by 66 % between 2024 and 2030. In the normal scenario, the emission increases were observed as 57 % for CO2, 52 % for NOx, 53 % for HC, and 46 % for CO. In contrast, under the best-case scenario, these increases were considerably more moderate, measured at 34 % for CO2, 31 % for NOx, 30 % for HC, and 26 % for CO. In addition, by 2030, the risk density for CO2 is projected to reach 2.33 kg/m2/day, while for CO, this value is 0.01293 kg/m2/day. The calculated densities for NOx and HC were determined to be 0.00221 and 0.00030 kg/m2/day, respectively. These values were found to potentially pose high acute toxicity risks for CO, chronic respiratory and nervous system risks for NOx and HC, and climate-related effects and physiological burdens on personnel working in enclosed spaces for CO2. In this study, a comprehensive approach was presented for both temporal and seasonal estimation of emissions associated with the taxi-out process at airports and health-based risk assessment using the newly developed FoREC-HHO algorithm.
{"title":"Estimation of key pollutant emission during the taxi-out phase using a novel hybrid forecasting algorithm(FoREC-HHO): Application to Istanbul Airport","authors":"Ukbe Üsame Uçar","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102954","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102954","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aircraft emissions during taxi-out operations constitute a significant portion of local air pollution at airports and are rarely modeled in conjunction with operational and meteorological variables. Although numerous studies focus on fuel burn or emission factors based on the ICAO LTO cycle, limited research integrates real-world airport conditions. In this article, CO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, CO, and HC emissions during the taxi-out phase at Istanbul Airport for the period 2024–2030 were estimated by considering the technical specifications of aircraft, operational delays, and meteorological visibility indices. Detailed analyses were conducted under three categories (Best, Normal, Worst) and 12 scenarios, and the daily intensity of emissions per unit area was evaluated according to the IDLH health risk indicator. In the estimation study, a new hybrid method called the FoREC-HHO algorithm was developed and compared with machine learning, metaheuristic algorithms, and statistical techniques. As a result of the analysis, the FoREC-HHO algorithm showed the highest accuracy rate for all emission types and achieved the lowest MAE values, demonstrating superior prediction performance. According to the analysis findings, in the worst-case scenario, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions increased by 80 %, NO<sub>x</sub> by 76 %, HC by 78 %, and CO by 66 % between 2024 and 2030. In the normal scenario, the emission increases were observed as 57 % for CO<sub>2</sub>, 52 % for NO<sub>x</sub>, 53 % for HC, and 46 % for CO. In contrast, under the best-case scenario, these increases were considerably more moderate, measured at 34 % for CO<sub>2</sub>, 31 % for NO<sub>x</sub>, 30 % for HC, and 26 % for CO. In addition, by 2030, the risk density for CO<sub>2</sub> is projected to reach 2.33 kg/m<sup>2</sup>/day, while for CO, this value is 0.01293 kg/m<sup>2</sup>/day. The calculated densities for NO<sub>x</sub> and HC were determined to be 0.00221 and 0.00030 kg/m<sup>2</sup>/day, respectively. These values were found to potentially pose high acute toxicity risks for CO, chronic respiratory and nervous system risks for NO<sub>x</sub> and HC, and climate-related effects and physiological burdens on personnel working in enclosed spaces for CO<sub>2</sub>. In this study, a comprehensive approach was presented for both temporal and seasonal estimation of emissions associated with the taxi-out process at airports and health-based risk assessment using the newly developed FoREC-HHO algorithm.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102954"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145733853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102951
Felix Müller , Alexander Barke , Olof Nittinger , Thomas S. Spengler
Technological advancements foster the development of novel aircraft concepts such as electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs). As a result of their promised operational benefits, such as low-emission operations and travel time savings, eVTOLs have the potential to complement or substitute existing ground transportation modes. However, their market penetration predominantly depends on economically viable operation. A widely used indicator for evaluating economic performance in aviation is the Direct Operating Cost (DOC). Currently, there is only limited public documentation on methodologies for estimating DOC of eVTOLs, and existing approaches are often abstract. Therefore, this article introduces the DOCeV, a model for estimating eVTOL DOC. The model is based on a reference methodology for conventional aircraft but is modified and extended to address the specific characteristics of (future) eVTOL operations. The DOCeV enables the estimation of costs associated with ownership, insurance, crew, energy, fees, and maintenance. Additionally, an eVTOL performance analysis is conducted within the model, the annual eVTOL utilisation is estimated, and an indicative ticket pricing approach is provided. The DOCeV has been implemented in a tool and validated using an input data set developed for a regional airport shuttle case study between Munich, Germany, and Salzburg, Austria. When applying the DOCeV, the DOC estimates for shorter, regional operations align well with existing literature. Estimates for longer missions are slightly higher than those reported in the literature. Overall, the DOCeV is considered a comprehensive and promising model for estimating realistic eVTOL DOC.
{"title":"DOCeV: A New Holistic Model for Direct Operating Cost Estimation of Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing Aircraft","authors":"Felix Müller , Alexander Barke , Olof Nittinger , Thomas S. Spengler","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102951","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Technological advancements foster the development of novel aircraft concepts such as electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs). As a result of their promised operational benefits, such as low-emission operations and travel time savings, eVTOLs have the potential to complement or substitute existing ground transportation modes. However, their market penetration predominantly depends on economically viable operation. A widely used indicator for evaluating economic performance in aviation is the Direct Operating Cost (DOC). Currently, there is only limited public documentation on methodologies for estimating DOC of eVTOLs, and existing approaches are often abstract. Therefore, this article introduces the DOCeV, a model for estimating eVTOL DOC. The model is based on a reference methodology for conventional aircraft but is modified and extended to address the specific characteristics of (future) eVTOL operations. The DOCeV enables the estimation of costs associated with ownership, insurance, crew, energy, fees, and maintenance. Additionally, an eVTOL performance analysis is conducted within the model, the annual eVTOL utilisation is estimated, and an indicative ticket pricing approach is provided. The DOCeV has been implemented in a tool and validated using an input data set developed for a regional airport shuttle case study between Munich, Germany, and Salzburg, Austria. When applying the DOCeV, the DOC estimates for shorter, regional operations align well with existing literature. Estimates for longer missions are slightly higher than those reported in the literature. Overall, the DOCeV is considered a comprehensive and promising model for estimating realistic eVTOL DOC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102951"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145786751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102948
Zheng Xu , Jun Hua , Guangquan Lu , Nan Zheng
The integration of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles into existing transportation systems represents a paradigm shift toward advanced low-altitude transportation (ALT), yet user acceptance remains a critical barrier to successful implementation. Traditional acceptance studies rely predominantly on questionnaire-based methodologies that capture hypothetical preferences rather than experiential responses, creating significant gaps in understanding real-world adoption patterns. This study addresses these limitations through a novel virtual reality (VR) simulation platform that enables multi-perspective evaluation of ALT acceptance across three distinct stakeholder roles: ALT passengers, conventional vehicle drivers, and pedestrians. Through systematic experimentation involving 2430 test scenarios across three realistic urban environments (straight roadway, freeway merging, and complex urban driving), this research establishes comprehensive relationships between technical performance optimization and human acceptance patterns. The results demonstrate that ALT implementation yields substantial performance benefits, including 37–45% reductions in travel times and 41–80% decreases in safety-critical events across different scenarios. However, behavioral analysis reveals a critical disconnect between objective performance improvements and subjective acceptance levels. Real-time intervention measurements show that user acceptance declines significantly with increasing ALT penetration rates, from 89% acceptance at 5% penetration to 59% at 20% penetration, with over 80% of the 745 recorded interventions occurring at implementation rates exceeding 15%. Within our experimental scenarios, we observed convergence of technical performance and operational comfort indicators around 15% penetration. These simulation-based findings provide preliminary evidence that integrates technical performance optimization with human factors analysis for ALT systems. The results offer initial insights for policymakers designing pilot programs and for industry stakeholders planning sustainable urban air mobility deployment.
{"title":"Multi-perspective evaluation of human factors in advanced low-altitude transportation adoption: a virtual reality simulation study","authors":"Zheng Xu , Jun Hua , Guangquan Lu , Nan Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The integration of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles into existing transportation systems represents a paradigm shift toward advanced low-altitude transportation (ALT), yet user acceptance remains a critical barrier to successful implementation. Traditional acceptance studies rely predominantly on questionnaire-based methodologies that capture hypothetical preferences rather than experiential responses, creating significant gaps in understanding real-world adoption patterns. This study addresses these limitations through a novel virtual reality (VR) simulation platform that enables multi-perspective evaluation of ALT acceptance across three distinct stakeholder roles: ALT passengers, conventional vehicle drivers, and pedestrians. Through systematic experimentation involving 2430 test scenarios across three realistic urban environments (straight roadway, freeway merging, and complex urban driving), this research establishes comprehensive relationships between technical performance optimization and human acceptance patterns. The results demonstrate that ALT implementation yields substantial performance benefits, including 37–45% reductions in travel times and 41–80% decreases in safety-critical events across different scenarios. However, behavioral analysis reveals a critical disconnect between objective performance improvements and subjective acceptance levels. Real-time intervention measurements show that user acceptance declines significantly with increasing ALT penetration rates, from 89% acceptance at 5% penetration to 59% at 20% penetration, with over 80% of the 745 recorded interventions occurring at implementation rates exceeding 15%. Within our experimental scenarios, we observed convergence of technical performance and operational comfort indicators around 15% penetration. These simulation-based findings provide preliminary evidence that integrates technical performance optimization with human factors analysis for ALT systems. The results offer initial insights for policymakers designing pilot programs and for industry stakeholders planning sustainable urban air mobility deployment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"132 ","pages":"Article 102948"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145682221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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