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What drives users to accept flying cars for urban air mobility? Findings from an empirical study 是什么促使用户接受飞行汽车作为城市空中交通工具?实证研究的结果
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102645
Jiangling Wu , Qiang He , Amit Kumar Singh , Linjie Tian

The rapid progression of technology has enabled the transformation of flying cars from a theoretical concept to a practical reality, aimed at alleviating urban traffic congestion and meeting the demand for efficient transportation. Key challenges currently revolve around legal frameworks, technological advancements, and financial resources. Additionally, societal concerns, particularly regarding user acceptance of flying cars, play a crucial role in their development. Therefore, investigating user acceptance behavior and identifying influencing factors for flying cars is essential for informing policy decisions, adjusting market strategies, assessing commercial feasibility, and ensuring successful integration into urban landscapes.

This study offers a synthesis, evaluation, and critique of relevant literature on technology acceptance models, user acceptance in the transportation sector, trust, and perceived risk. User behavioral intention is established as the primary criterion for assessing acceptance, with six core latent variables identified: performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, hedonic motivation, trust, and perceived risk. Theoretical hypotheses are formulated based on these variables, leading to the creation of a theoretical model, followed by questionnaire design. A structural equation model is developed using sample data to validate research hypotheses and explore moderating effects, including the impact of demographic characteristics.

The research outcomes reveal that various factors influence user behavioral intention towards flying cars, with perceived risk emerging as the most significant factor. Trust not only directly affects user intention but also indirectly influences it through other variables. Moreover, age is identified as a significant moderating factor in this context.

The study draws several key conclusions: safety is a primary concern for users, emphasizing the need to enhance safety features of flying cars; trust plays a dual role, warranting further investigation into strategies for building user trust; catering to users over 30 requires emphasizing simplicity and safety, while younger users are more influenced by peers, necessitating tailored promotional strategies by companies.

This paper expands the utility of the UTAUT2 model, offering valuable insights for future research on flying cars and proposing policy recommendations for the commercial advancement of flying cars based on the research findings.

技术的飞速发展使飞行汽车从理论概念变成了现实,其目的是缓解城市交通拥堵,满足人们对高效交通的需求。目前面临的主要挑战是法律框架、技术进步和财政资源。此外,社会关注点,尤其是用户对飞行汽车的接受程度,对其发展起着至关重要的作用。因此,调查用户对飞行汽车的接受行为并确定影响因素,对于为政策决策提供信息、调整市场战略、评估商业可行性以及确保成功融入城市景观至关重要。本研究对有关技术接受模型、交通领域用户接受度、信任度和感知风险的相关文献进行了综合、评估和评论。用户行为意向被确定为评估接受度的主要标准,并确定了六个核心潜变量:性能预期、努力预期、社会影响、享乐动机、信任和感知风险。根据这些变量提出了理论假设,从而建立了一个理论模型,随后进行了问卷设计。研究结果表明,各种因素会影响用户对飞行汽车的行为意向,其中感知风险是最重要的因素。信任不仅直接影响用户意向,还通过其他变量间接影响用户意向。研究得出了几个重要结论:安全是用户最关心的问题,因此需要加强飞行汽车的安全性能;信任起着双重作用,因此需要进一步研究建立用户信任的策略;针对 30 岁以上的用户,需要强调简单性和安全性,而年轻用户则更多地受到同龄人的影响,因此企业需要采取有针对性的推广策略。本文扩展了UTAUT2模型的实用性,为未来的飞行汽车研究提供了有价值的见解,并根据研究结果为飞行汽车的商业推广提出了政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Developing an airport resilience assessment model for climate change 开发气候变化机场复原力评估模型
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102646
Chao-Che Hsu , Hsiang-Chuan Chang , Yan-Cheng Li , James J.H. Liou

Climate change is affecting the stability of all types of transportation systems, including air transport. Ensuring the disaster preparedness capability of an airport has become a crucial issue. Prior studies on assessing airport resilience and risk analysis have failed to consider the impact of the disaster at various stages and the interdependence between the factors or criteria. This study proposes airport resilience model that considers the various stages of disaster response. First, we collect criteria affecting airport resilience through literature review and experts' survey to develop a novel evaluation framework. Second, this study applies the modified DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) which was modified by introducing the concept of heterogeneous impact analysis and combined with the concept of centrality weighting. Then, the modified DEMATEL is further combined with the Dombi Weighted Aggregator method to explore the interdependence relationships among the criteria and effectively integrate expert opinions. Finally, modified VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje) analysis is applied to assess the resilience performance of Taiwan's major international airports and provide suggestions for improvement. The results indicate that pre-disaster preparation, with a weight of 0.338 among four stages, is the most crucial stage for enhancing airport resilience. This can be achieved through the implementation of effective emergency response procedures and evacuation plans in the event of a disaster. Additionally, this study suggests various improvement strategies based on the assessment results to enhance disaster resistance and resilience.

气候变化正在影响包括航空运输在内的各类运输系统的稳定性。确保机场的备灾能力已成为一个关键问题。以往关于机场抗灾能力评估和风险分析的研究未能考虑灾害在不同阶段的影响以及各因素或标准之间的相互依存关系。本研究提出了考虑灾害应对各阶段的机场抗灾能力模型。首先,我们通过文献综述和专家调查收集了影响机场抗灾能力的标准,建立了一个新颖的评估框架。其次,本研究应用了改进的 DEMATEL(决策试验与评估实验室),该方法通过引入异质性影响分析的概念并结合中心性加权的概念进行了改进。然后,修改后的 DEMATEL 进一步与 Dombi 加权聚合器方法相结合,以探索标准之间的相互依赖关系,并有效整合专家意见。最后,运用修正的 VIKOR(VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje)分析法评估台湾主要国际机场的抗灾性能,并提出改进建议。结果表明,灾前准备是提高机场抗灾能力的最关键阶段,在四个阶段中的权重为 0.338。这可以通过实施有效的应急响应程序和灾难发生时的疏散计划来实现。此外,本研究还根据评估结果提出了各种改进策略,以提高机场的抗灾能力和恢复力。
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引用次数: 0
Ramp-up in the air: Impairing or repairing aviation crews’ working conditions? A mixed-methods survey study on working conditions, health, and safety among cabin crew and pilots in Europe 空中升温:损害还是修复航空机组人员的工作条件?关于欧洲客舱乘务员和飞行员工作条件、健康和安全的混合方法调查研究
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102642
Filippa Folke, Marika Melin

Introduction

Organizational changes, such as downsizing, can have profound implications for organizations, working conditions, and individual well-being. Similarly, rapid expansion also carries potential risks to individual health. During the Covid-19 pandemic, airlines experienced substantial organizational changes, such as downsizing and furloughs, followed by rapid expansion during the ramp-up phase of flying, posing risks to the health and safety of aviation personnel in the new post-pandemic aviation landscape.

Method

This cross-sectional and mixed-method survey study aimed to identify what post-pandemic challenges pilots (N = 6379) and cabin crew (N = 2679) face regarding working conditions, health, and flight safety.

Results

The results indicate deteriorated working conditions, health, and perceived safety among crew in the new aviation landscape. One in two cabin crew and one in three pilots report a decline in mental health. Whilst most pilots and cabin crew report no change in overall safety, 29% of cabin crew and 36% of surveyed pilots state that safety has deteriorated since the onset of the pandemic. This development is connected to an increased sense of industry instability, job insecurity, imbalanced job design, and management distrust among aviation crew. Furthermore, the uncertainties surrounding the industry have not only impacted job security and induced job-related worry but have also intensified operational pressures, with perceived impacts on flight and passenger safety.

Conclusion

The organizational framework, e.g., financial pressures, may have an effect on safety, either directly or indirectly by financial worry impeding crew performance. Hence, safety cannot be examined in isolation from employee health but must be understood in relation to the complex dynamics and competing objectives within aviation. Further, crew experiences across Europe are largely homogeneous, suggesting that identified risks may not be airline specific. Therefore, it is important to further examine the industry framework for inherent risk factors that could impact employee health and flight safety.

引言 组织变革,如裁员,会对组织、工作条件和个人福祉产生深远影响。同样,快速扩张也会给个人健康带来潜在风险。在 Covid-19 大流行期间,航空公司经历了大幅的组织变革,如裁员和休假,随后又在飞行加速阶段迅速扩张,在大流行后的新航空环境中给航空人员的健康和安全带来了风险。结果结果表明,在新的航空业形势下,机组人员的工作条件、健康状况和安全感都在恶化。每两名客舱乘务员和每三名飞行员中就有一人表示心理健康水平下降。尽管大多数飞行员和客舱乘务员表示总体安全状况没有变化,但 29% 的客舱乘务员和 36% 的受访飞行员表示,自大流行病爆发以来,安全状况有所恶化。这种情况与航空机组人员对行业不稳定性、工作不安全感、不平衡的工作设计以及对管理层的不信任加剧有关。此外,行业的不确定性不仅影响了工作安全,引发了与工作相关的担忧,还加剧了运营压力,对飞行和乘客安全造成了影响。因此,安全问题不能脱离员工的健康状况来研究,而必须结合航空业内复杂的动态和相互竞争的目标来理解。此外,欧洲各国机组人员的经历大体相同,这表明所发现的风险可能与航空公司无关。因此,进一步研究可能影响员工健康和飞行安全的内在风险因素的行业框架非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of DME network capability using combination of rule-based model and gradient boosting regression 利用基于规则的模型和梯度提升回归组合评估 DME 网络能力
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102637
Tereza Topkova , Stanislav Pleninger , Jakub Hospodka , Jakub Kraus

The future development of aeronautical navigation foresees an infrastructure rationalization of radionavigation aids with the aim of maintaining only the Minimum Operational Network, which brings benefits in terms of operational cost savings, promotes sustainability and optimal use of the radio spectrum. To ensure that the necessary navigation performance is preserved, the Distance Measuring Equipment (DME) plays a significant role, as DME/DME navigation is a short-term contingency solution when Global Navigation Satellite System is unavailable. Therefore, new DME ground stations are put into operation even though other navigation aids are being decommissioned at the same time. This paper addresses a question of possible DME network rationalization by developing a software model using a combination of a rule-based model, approximating of airborne DME interrogators interacting with DME ground transponders, with the implementation of the Gradient Boosting Regression to predict load of DME ground stations. The model is validated by comparing the results with the real load data obtained from an Air Navigation Service Provider. Several test cases are performed to evaluate the capability of the European DME network, simulating a reduction in the number of en-route DME stations and increases in air traffic using clustering methods. The results show that the ground station load limit was rarely reached, demonstrating the robustness and the potential for rationalization of the DME infrastructure.

航空导航的未来发展预见了无线电导航辅助基础设施的合理化,其目的是只维持最小运行网络,从而在节省运行成本、促进可持续性和优化使用无线电频谱方面带来好处。为确保保持必要的导航性能,测距设备(DME)发挥了重要作用,因为 DME/DME 导航是全球导航卫星系统无法使用时的短期应急解决方案。因此,即使其他导航辅助设备同时退役,新的 DME 地面站也会投入使用。本文针对可能的 DME 网络合理化问题,开发了一个软件模型,结合使用基于规则的模型(近似机载 DME 询问器与 DME 地面转发器之间的相互作用)和梯度提升回归法来预测 DME 地面站的负荷。通过将结果与航空导航服务提供商提供的实际负荷数据进行比较,对模型进行了验证。为评估欧洲 DME 网络的能力,使用聚类方法模拟了途中 DME 地面站数量的减少和空中交通量的增加。结果表明,很少达到地面站的负荷极限,这证明了 DME 基础设施的稳健性和合理化潜力。
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引用次数: 0
The impacts of the COVID-19 on the aircraft emissions from international routes from and to China COVID-19 对往返中国的国际航线飞机排放的影响
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102640
Ye Li, Jin-kun Zheng

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the civil aviation exchange between China and foreign countries. But few studies have focused on the effects of COVID-19 on aviation emissions. This paper seeks to calculate the emissions of six pollution (CO2, CO, HC, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5) from the international routes from and to China during 2019–2021 and discusses the impacts of COVID-19 on the emission change. The Modified BFFM2-FOA-FPM method is proposed to unify the CO2 and non-CO2 calculations. The error rate between the calculated results and the official data from Civil Aviation Administration of China is about 2.74%. The results show that the COVID-19 has resulted in a reduction in overall emissions of the international routes from and to China, but the intensity of the unit passenger turnover has increased, and the overall emissions of some airlines have increased. Moreover, compared with 2020, there is no apparent recovery of international routes from and to China in 2021.

COVID-19 大流行极大地影响了中外民航交流。但很少有研究关注 COVID-19 对航空排放的影响。本文试图计算2019-2021年往返中国的国际航线上六种污染(CO2、CO、HC、NOx、SO2和PM2.5)的排放量,并讨论COVID-19对排放量变化的影响。提出了修正的 BFFM2-FOA-FPM 方法来统一二氧化碳和非二氧化碳的计算。计算结果与中国民用航空局官方数据的误差率约为 2.74%。结果表明,COVID-19 使往返中国的国际航线总体排放量有所下降,但单位旅客周转量的排放强度有所上升,部分航空公司的总体排放量有所增加。此外,与 2020 年相比,2021 年往返中国的国际航线没有明显恢复。
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引用次数: 0
Implications of air travel shopping for non-aeronautical revenue streams: A cross-national empirical analysis 航空旅行购物对非航空收入流的影响:跨国实证分析
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102638
Suyang Li , Jacek Pawlak , Aruna Sivakumar

The COVID-19 pandemic dealt a significantly heavy blow to the already competitive air travel industry. As air travel demand is recovering post-pandemic, both airports and airlines are seeking to establish a steady stream of non-aeronautical/ancillary revenues, especially retail, to aid financial recovery. However, a rigorous analysis of passengers' purchasing behaviour during the whole air travel process has been lacking to date. To investigate this matter, we analyse data from a cross-national survey administered in four multi-airport cities (London in the UK, New York City in the US, Shanghai in China, and Sao Paulo in Brazil) in 2020, asking about the respondent's most recent air trip before the pandemic. A Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) model was estimated to jointly analyse the discrete decision (to purchase or not) and continuous aspect (of how much is spent) during three stages of travel: at the departure airport, in flight, and at the transfer airport (if applicable). Six hypotheses, about the stage of travel, product and service type, passenger attributes, context of travel, and presence of companions are postulated and examined empirically. The results demonstrate how such factors shape shopping decisions during different stages of travel. The modelling results point towards the need for better pre-flight product information and more tailored offers. Airport retail requires more flexibility in terms of locations, operating hours and channels (in-store, deliveries) to improve shopping convenience. Use of digital tools and passenger data can aid in realising retail revenue improvement. Proposed future research directions include a focus on the transfer airport (where most spending is observed), post-pandemic behaviour changes, the role of product and service attributes, use of non-survey data and environmental impacts of the evolution in air travel retail.

COVID-19 大流行给本已竞争激烈的航空旅游业带来了沉重打击。随着大流行后航空旅行需求的恢复,机场和航空公司都在寻求建立稳定的非航空/辅助收入,尤其是零售收入,以帮助财务复苏。然而,迄今为止还缺乏对旅客在整个航空旅行过程中的购买行为的严谨分析。为了研究这个问题,我们分析了 2020 年在四个多机场城市(英国伦敦、美国纽约市、中国上海和巴西圣保罗)进行的跨国调查数据,调查询问了受访者在大流行病发生前最近一次航空旅行的情况。对多重离散-连续极值(MDCEV)模型进行了估计,以共同分析旅行三个阶段中的离散决策(购买与否)和连续方面(花费多少):出发机场、飞行中和转机机场(如适用)。本研究提出了六个假设,分别涉及旅行阶段、产品和服务类型、乘客属性、旅行环境和同行者。结果表明了这些因素如何影响旅行不同阶段的购物决策。建模结果表明,需要更好的飞行前产品信息和更有针对性的优惠。机场零售需要在地点、营业时间和渠道(店内、送货)方面有更大的灵活性,以提高购物便利性。数字工具和乘客数据的使用有助于提高零售收入。建议的未来研究方向包括:重点关注中转机场(大部分消费都在这里)、大流行后的行为变化、产品和服务属性的作用、非调查数据的使用以及航空零售业发展对环境的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Flight passes do stimulate consumers’ spending: A case study of China Eastern Airlines’ “Wild Your Weekends” 飞行通票确实刺激了消费者的消费:东航 "狂野周末 "案例研究
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102635
Zhi Dou, Volodymyr Bilotkach, Yi Gao

This study investigates the effect of Wild Your Weekends, an “all-you-can-fly” flight pass program launched by China Eastern Airlines during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021. We leverage the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method to estimate the causal effect of the flight pass on travelers’ spending behavior based on observational data. To reduce confounding bias, the PSM method pairs flight pass holders with individuals who are very similar to them but did not purchase the flight pass and compares the expenditures of the two groups. This study is one of the few studies that directly addresses flight passes and lays the groundwork for understanding the socioeconomic effects of the flight pass. The results could not only help the airlines to understand the utility of flight passes for travelers, but also provide policymakers with guidance to make policies that sustainably promote travels to underdeveloped regions with the help of refined flight pass programs.

本研究调查了中国东方航空公司在 2020-2021 年 COVID-19 大流行期间推出的 "Wild Your Weekends "飞行通票计划的效果。我们利用倾向得分匹配法(PSM),基于观察数据估算了飞行通票对旅客消费行为的因果效应。为减少混杂偏差,倾向得分匹配法将飞行通行证持有者与与其非常相似但未购买飞行通行证的个人配对,并比较两组人的支出。这项研究是为数不多的直接针对飞行通票的研究之一,为了解飞行通票的社会经济效应奠定了基础。研究结果不仅可以帮助航空公司了解飞行通票对旅客的效用,还可以为政策制定者提供指导,帮助他们制定政策,借助完善的飞行通票计划,可持续地促进到欠发达地区的旅行。
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引用次数: 0
Efficiency of global airlines incorporating sustainability objectives: A Malmquist-DEA approach 包含可持续发展目标的全球航空公司的效率:Malmquist-DEA 方法
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102634
Augusto Voltes-Dorta , Rodrigo Britto , Bradley Wilson

Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, airline managers are still expected to look beyond financial and operational metrics to include sustainability goals that address key environmental, social, and governance aspects of the airline business. While there is a considerable body of literature addressing airline efficiency in terms of environmental performance, studies that integrate the various dimensions of sustainability are notably scarce. This paper aims to fill this gap by estimating technical efficiency using a sample of 34 airline groups between 2019 and 2022, with a Malmquist-Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology that includes financial, operational, and sustainability scores (Environmental and Social). Our results show a productivity loss between 10% and 14% during the COVID-19 period, with a better performance once the carriers are credited for their sustainability achievements. Using a second-stage bootstrapped truncated regression, we confirm the positive impact of hubbing operations and also find significant differences across geographical regions.

尽管受到 COVID-19 大流行病的影响,但人们仍然期望航空公司的管理者能够超越财务和运营指标,将可持续发展目标纳入其中,以解决航空公司业务在环境、社会和治理方面的关键问题。虽然有相当多的文献从环境绩效的角度探讨航空公司的效率,但将可持续发展的各个层面结合起来的研究却少之又少。本文旨在填补这一空白,采用马尔奎斯特数据包络分析(DEA)方法,包括财务、运营和可持续性得分(环境和社会),以 34 家航空公司集团为样本,估算 2019 年至 2022 年间的技术效率。我们的研究结果表明,在 COVID-19 期间,生产率损失在 10% 到 14% 之间,而一旦航空公司的可持续发展成就得到认可,生产率损失就会减少。利用第二阶段引导截断回归,我们证实了枢纽化运营的积极影响,并发现不同地理区域之间存在显著差异。
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引用次数: 0
Modular vehicles can reduce greenhouse gas emissions for departure flight baggage transportation 模块化车辆可减少离港航班行李运输的温室气体排放
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102633
Xiaowei Shi , Zhiwei Chen , Xiaopeng Li , Xiaobo Qu

Rapid and on-time baggage transportation plays a crucial role in ensuring customer satisfaction and is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the aviation sector. Modular Vehicle (MV) is an emerging transportation technology that allows vehicles to adjust their capacity flexibly by assembling or disassembling identical detachable units. This innovative technology offers a new perspective to decarbonize the aviation sector, as it holds promise for reducing GHG emissions in flight baggage transportation. To investigate this possibility, this study proposes an MV operation paradigm and a corresponding “greenest” MV scheduling problem that aims to minimize MV-relevant GHG emissions while transporting baggage from the terminal to the aircraft without delay. To solve the problem efficiently, a fast construction-merging heuristic is proposed based on the theoretical properties of the problem. A series of case studies at the Tampa International Airport were conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed MV operation and the construction-merging heuristic. The results indicate that the proposed MV operation effectively reduces GHG emissions, and the heuristic solves near-optimal solutions to the investigated problem much faster than Gurobi, a state-of-the-art commercial solver for integer programs, without much loss of the optimality of the solutions. Results from this study provide important managerial and operational insights into decarbonizing baggage transportation for airport operators.

快速、准时的行李运输在确保客户满意度方面发挥着至关重要的作用,同时也是航空业温室气体(GHG)排放的重要来源。模块化车辆(MV)是一种新兴的运输技术,它允许车辆通过组装或拆卸相同的可拆卸单元来灵活调整其容量。这项创新技术为航空业的去碳化提供了一个新的视角,因为它有望减少航班行李运输中的温室气体排放。为了研究这种可能性,本研究提出了一种 MV 运行范例和相应的 "最绿色 "MV 调度问题,其目的是在不延迟地将行李从航站楼运送到飞机的同时,最大限度地减少与 MV 相关的温室气体排放。为有效解决该问题,基于该问题的理论特性,提出了一种快速构建-合并启发式。在坦帕国际机场进行了一系列案例研究,以评估建议的 MV 操作和施工合并启发式的性能。结果表明,建议的 MV 操作有效地减少了温室气体排放,启发式求解所研究问题的接近最优解的速度比 Gurobi(一种最先进的整数程序商业求解器)快得多,而解的最优性没有太大损失。这项研究的结果为机场运营商的行李运输去碳化提供了重要的管理和运营启示。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of air traffic complexity through a dynamic complexity indicator and machine learning models 通过动态复杂性指标和机器学习模型预测空中交通复杂性
IF 3.9 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102632
Francisco Pérez Moreno, Fernando Ibáñez Rodríguez, Víctor Fernando Gómez Comendador, Raquel Delgado-Aguilera Jurado, María Zamarreño Suárez, Rosa María Arnaldo Valdés

In recent years, there has been an increase in traffic demand. This means that the balance between the capacity of the Air Traffic Control system and traffic demand is affected. As demand exceeds capacity, measures such as the Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management regulations have emerged to reduce the number of flights in the airspace. Complexity is a topic widely studied by researchers all over the world. For this reason, the objective of this paper is to develop a complexity indicator that can be used to predict complexity of Air Traffic Control sectors with help of Machine Learning models. The structure of complexity prediction is based on different machine learning models predicting operational variables using Random Forest Algorithms, and then predicting the complexity combining the results of the Machine Learning models. With this artificial intelligence application, the objective is to predict a complex variable by structuring the problem and dividing it in simpler models. Thanks to the application of the methodology, the Air Traffic Control service can see which possible flows or sectors will be congested and thus allocate resources optimally, but also simulations of different scenarios can be made to analyse how the operation changes, and thus structure the traffic prior to the operation.

近年来,交通需求不断增加。这意味着空中交通管制系统的容量与交通需求之间的平衡受到影响。当需求超过容量时,空中交通流量和容量管理条例等措施应运而生,以减少空域内的航班数量。复杂性是全世界研究人员广泛研究的一个课题。因此,本文旨在开发一种复杂性指标,借助机器学习模型预测空中交通管制部门的复杂性。复杂性预测的结构基于使用随机森林算法预测运行变量的不同机器学习模型,然后结合机器学习模型的结果预测复杂性。这种人工智能应用的目标是通过结构化问题并将其划分为更简单的模型来预测复杂变量。由于应用了这一方法,空中交通管制服务部门可以看到哪些可能的流量或航段会出现拥堵,从而优化资源分配,还可以模拟不同的情况,分析运行如何变化,从而在运行前对流量进行结构化。
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Journal of Air Transport Management
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