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Business model evolution and consolidation of the U.S. airline industry: Market outcomes in the 21st century 美国航空业的商业模式演变与整合:21世纪的市场结果
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102935
Darin Lee, Erin Secatore, Ethan Singer, Eric Amel
This paper compares U.S. airline business models in the deregulation era and provides a data-driven analysis that comprehensively describes the market outcomes following U.S. airline industry consolidation in the 21st century. We detail how these market outcomes following consolidation have impacted consumers. Specifically, we find that: (1) notwithstanding industry consolidation, air travel is extremely accessible, with more choice in domestic and international air travel than two decades ago; (2) as of 2024, U.S. airfares are at or near all-time inflation-adjusted lows; and (3) airlines’ profitability in the post-consolidation era, while modest compared with other large companies, has enabled significant reinvestment in products and service to make travel more convenient, comfortable, and reliable.
本文比较了放松管制时代美国航空公司的商业模式,并提供了一个数据驱动的分析,全面描述了21世纪美国航空业整合后的市场结果。我们详细介绍了合并后的这些市场结果如何影响消费者。具体而言,我们发现:(1)尽管行业整合,航空旅行非常容易获得,与20年前相比,国内和国际航空旅行的选择更多;(2)截至2024年,美国机票价格处于或接近经通胀调整后的历史最低水平;(3)航空公司在后整合时代的盈利能力,虽然与其他大公司相比并不高,但却能够对产品和服务进行大量再投资,使旅行更加方便、舒适和可靠。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing spatial development footprint of urban areas surrounding new airport terminal infrastructure 评估新机场客运大楼基础设施周边市区的空间发展足迹
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102957
Jiayu Liu , Ningning Nicole Kong , Yi Gao
This study employs a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) to measure the land use change after a new airport terminal was being built. By comparing land use changes around airports with newly constructed terminals to those around airports without terminal expansion, the study isolates the effects of terminal developments on urban growth and land transformation. Land use data from the United States National Land Cover Database (NLCD) was analyzed across two treatment periods (2011 and 2016) to evaluate shifts in different land use categories such as developed, agricultural, and natural land. Findings indicate that new terminals construction is usually accompanied by accelerating urbanization, with high-intensity developments expanding at the expense of natural and agricultural lands. An exception appears in the 2011 treatment cohort, where agricultural land increasing stands out, likely reflecting concurrent regional conservation and restoration initiatives.
本研究采用差分法测量新机场航站楼建设后的土地利用变化。通过比较新建航站楼的机场周围与未扩建航站楼的机场周围的土地利用变化,该研究隔离了航站楼开发对城市增长和土地转型的影响。研究人员对来自美国国家土地覆盖数据库(NLCD)的土地利用数据进行了两个处理期(2011年和2016年)的分析,以评估不同土地利用类别(如发达土地、农业土地和自然土地)的变化。研究结果表明,新的码头建设通常伴随着城市化的加速,以牺牲自然和农业用地为代价扩大高强度开发。在2011年的治疗组中出现了一个例外,其中农业用地增加突出,可能反映了同时发生的区域保护和恢复举措。
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引用次数: 0
Shifting skies: A cross-country investigation of evolution of public perception toward urban air mobility through Twitter (X) discourse 移动的天空:一项通过Twitter (X)话语对城市空中交通的公众认知演变的跨国调查
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102950
Eeshan Bhaduri , Charisma F. Choudhury
Urban air mobility (UAM) is increasingly being recognised as a promising response to the challenges of rapid urban expansion and its negative externalities. While technological advancements in vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft have accelerated development in this space, the widespread adoption of UAM services hinges on societal acceptance driven by public perceptions. Understanding these perceptions, especially their variation across regions and over time, is critical for developing policies to maximise their adoption rate. This study leverages a large-scale and long-term Twitter dataset to discern the spatio-temporal evolution of public perceptions towards UAM. To this end, we employed a combination of machine learning (ML) and a large language model (LLM) for performing sentiment classification. Subsequently, sentiment polarities are integrated with time series analysis, indicating the prevalence of positive perception for most of the last decade, while detecting the effect of various real-world events. In terms of spatial K-means clustering results, it reveals four clusters of countries with distinct characteristics. For example, people in countries like the USA and Australia are observed to be highly opinionated towards UAM, while public discourse in Germany and India is more neutral. Finally, dynamic topic modelling coupled with an LLM-based representation uncovers underlying themes of public discourse. Topic model findings underline three major global themes: (1) industry innovation and testing, (2) unmanned aviation systems, and (3) mobility benefits. Furthermore, we identified in some cases that local themes driven by specific incidents have a more substantial effect in shaping the preferences than the generic global ones. The paper hence contributes to the literature by providing the first global-level dynamic spatio-temporal assessment of future UAM services. The insights are expected to offer valuable policy guidance for policymakers, regulators, and industry stakeholders aiming to improve the public acceptance of UAM technologies and consequently the uptake.
城市空中交通(UAM)越来越被认为是应对城市快速扩张及其负面外部性挑战的一种有希望的方法。虽然垂直起降(VTOL)飞机的技术进步加速了这一领域的发展,但UAM服务的广泛采用取决于公众观念驱动的社会接受度。了解这些观念,特别是它们在不同地区和不同时期的差异,对于制定政策以最大限度地提高它们的采用率至关重要。本研究利用大规模和长期的Twitter数据集来辨别公众对UAM的看法的时空演变。为此,我们采用了机器学习(ML)和大型语言模型(LLM)的组合来执行情感分类。随后,情绪极性与时间序列分析相结合,表明在过去十年的大部分时间里,积极感知的流行程度,同时检测各种现实世界事件的影响。在空间k均值聚类结果上,揭示了四个具有鲜明特征的国家集群。例如,在美国和澳大利亚这样的国家,人们对UAM非常固执己见,而德国和印度的公共话语则更为中立。最后,动态主题建模与基于法学硕士的表示相结合,揭示了公共话语的潜在主题。主题模型的发现强调了三个主要的全球主题:(1)行业创新和测试,(2)无人航空系统,(3)移动效益。此外,我们发现,在某些情况下,由特定事件驱动的本地主题在塑造偏好方面比通用的全球主题具有更大的影响。因此,本文通过提供未来UAM服务的第一个全球水平的动态时空评估,为文献做出了贡献。这些见解有望为政策制定者、监管机构和行业利益相关者提供有价值的政策指导,旨在提高公众对UAM技术的接受程度,从而提高其使用率。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting high-granular air passenger demand flows: An integrated modeling framework applied to the Italian airport system 预测高粒度航空旅客需求流:应用于意大利机场系统的集成建模框架
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102937
Nicolò Avogadro, Chiara Morlotti, Renato Redondi
Demand forecasting is a pivotal aspect of the multifaceted business of airlines and airports, significantly influencing long-term strategic decisions. For airports, accurate traffic forecasts are particularly crucial for aligning infrastructure capacity with future needs, necessitating tailored approaches to capture complex demand dynamics. This paper proposes a novel modeling framework to formulate high-granular itinerary-level demand forecasts, ultimately ensuring robust system-level predictions. The modeling framework leverages a state-of-the-art integrated demand modeling coupled with a customized scenario analysis tool. We demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach in supporting airport strategic planning by reporting the outcomes of its application on the Italian airport system, formulating traffic forecasts up to 2035 and testing predictive ability based on actual traffic data for 2024. We showcase the adaptability of the framework in addressing diverse challenges that decision-makers and policymakers will face in the near future, such as implementing policies to support the aviation industry’s transition to net-zero emissions.
需求预测是航空公司和机场多方面业务的一个关键方面,对长期战略决策有重大影响。对于机场来说,准确的交通预测对于使基础设施容量与未来需求保持一致尤为重要,因此需要采取量身定制的方法来捕捉复杂的需求动态。本文提出了一种新的建模框架来制定高粒度的行程级需求预测,最终确保鲁棒的系统级预测。建模框架利用了与定制的场景分析工具相结合的最先进的集成需求建模。我们通过报告其在意大利机场系统中的应用结果,制定2035年的交通预测,并基于2024年的实际交通数据测试预测能力,证明了所提出的方法在支持机场战略规划方面的有效性。我们展示了该框架在解决决策者和政策制定者在不久的将来将面临的各种挑战方面的适应性,例如实施支持航空业向净零排放过渡的政策。
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引用次数: 0
Performance evaluation of operational modes in terminal airspace of UAV takeoff and landing areas 无人机起降区末端空域作战模式性能评价
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102894
Runming Wang , Bo Jiang , Rui Yang , Chenglong Li , Yuan Zheng , Xiang Kong
The terminal airspace of UAV takeoff and landing areas serves as the foundation for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of UAVs. Within this area, the air traffic environment is highly complex, making UAVs prone to collisions, delays, and other issues. However, research on terminal airspace and flight rules for UAV takeoff and landing areas remains scarce. This study designs a terminal airspace for small UAVs with a multi-layered annular frustum structure based on a hovering holding mode and proposes two operational modes for the terminal area: the Open Queue Approach (OQA) and the Directed Queue Approach (DQA). Mathematical models for performance evaluation metrics of these operational modes are developed. By establishing and solving a Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINP) model and developing a simulation environment for UAV terminal airspace operations using the SimPy library, the study proposes optimization-based and statistics-based methods for operational mode performance evaluation, quantitatively assessing the performance of different terminal area operational modes from the perspectives of volume, operational efficiency, and safety. In addition, controlled simulation experiments are conducted to compare the operational performance of the proposed hovering holding mode with a representative loitering holding mode under high-traffic scenarios. The results show that the hovering holding mode proposed in this paper can reduce UAV waiting time by 47.9 % compared to the loitering holding mode; the minimum airspace volume under the OQA operational mode is smaller than that of the DQA mode; the OQA mode demonstrates superior efficiency, while the DQA mode exhibits better performance from the perspective of safety.
无人机起降区终端空域是保证无人机安全高效运行的基础。在这个区域内,空中交通环境非常复杂,使得无人机容易发生碰撞、延误和其他问题。然而,对无人机起降区终端空域和飞行规则的研究仍然很少。设计了基于悬停等待模式的多层环形截锥体结构小型无人机终端空域,提出了两种终端空域运行模式:开放队列进近(OQA)和定向队列进近(DQA)。建立了这些操作模式的性能评价指标的数学模型。通过建立和求解混合整数非线性规划(MINP)模型,利用SimPy库开发无人机终端空域作战仿真环境,提出基于优化和统计的作战模式性能评价方法,从体积、作战效率和安全三个角度对不同的终端空域作战模式性能进行定量评价。此外,通过受控仿真实验,比较了所提出的悬停持持模式与具有代表性的徘徊持持模式在高流量场景下的运行性能。结果表明:本文提出的悬停保持模式比悬停保持模式可使无人机等待时间减少47.9%;OQA模式下的最小空域体积小于DQA模式;从安全角度看,OQA模式表现出更高的效率,DQA模式表现出更好的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Business travel stress and the moderating effect of corporate aircraft utilization on employee Well-Being: Business aviation from a stakeholder perspective 商务旅行压力及公务机使用对员工幸福感的调节作用:利益相关者视角下的公务机
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102912
Bas de Bruijn, Annelies Oosterhoff, Bas Kodden
This study investigates how access to corporate aircraft moderates the relationship between business travel stress and employee well-being. Using the Job-Demands-Resources and Person-Environment Fit models, this research reveals that business travel stress relates to time pressure, travel environment, and work-family conflict, which affect physical, psychological, and social well-being. However, corporate aircraft use restores control, relieves stress, and reduces fatigue, emotional exhaustion, and work-family conflict. Additionally, it offers positive travel experiences that enhance employee energy, engagement, and job satisfaction. This study addresses a research gap by being the first to explore business travel stress and well-being in corporate aircraft operations, expanding the Job-Demands-Resources model. These findings provide a foundation for future research to further investigate the nuanced relationship between business travel stress and employee well-being. Organizations can benefit from the findings by redefining their business case for corporate aircraft, prioritizing stakeholder well-being as a primary source of return on investment.
本研究旨在探讨使用公务机如何调节出差压力与员工幸福感之间的关系。运用工作需求-资源模型和人-环境匹配模型,研究发现出差压力与时间压力、出差环境和工作-家庭冲突有关,影响着员工的身体、心理和社会幸福感。然而,公务飞机的使用恢复了控制,缓解了压力,减少了疲劳、情绪疲惫和工作与家庭的冲突。此外,它还提供积极的旅行体验,提高员工的精力、敬业度和工作满意度。本研究首次探讨了公务机运营中的商务旅行压力和幸福感,扩展了工作需求-资源模型,从而填补了研究空白。这些发现为未来进一步研究差旅压力与员工幸福感之间的微妙关系提供了基础。组织可以通过重新定义公务机的商业案例,优先考虑利益相关者的福祉,将其作为投资回报的主要来源,从而从研究结果中受益。
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引用次数: 0
A life cycle assessment of electric towing vehicle routing problem with time windows: Three-stage linear charging and partial charging strategy 带时间窗的电动拖曳车辆路径问题生命周期评估:三阶段线性充电和部分充电策略
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102908
Danwen Bao , Jiajun Chu , Yuting Chen , Yu Yan
With the increasing demand for air travel, replacing fuel-powered towing vehicles (FTVs) with electric towing vehicles (ETVs) is a proven strategy for reducing airport ground service costs. The effective deployment and operation of these ETV fleets heavily rely on sophisticated optimization models to manage their daily scheduling and charging. However, previous optimization models often overlook comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) and employ simplified charging assumptions, limiting their accuracy and practical applicability. This study addresses these gaps by introducing an innovative Electric Towing Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows considering Life Cycle (ETVRPTW-LC) model, categorizing life cycle costs into fixed, operational, and environmental costs. Furthermore, integrating a three-stage linear charging and partial charging strategy enhances model fidelity by more accurately simulating the non-linear and operational realities of ETV recharging compared to traditional linear or full-charge approaches. The Adaptive Large Neighbourhood Search (ALNS) algorithm and Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm are applied to address local optimality. Numerical experiments, using data from Nanjing Lukou International Airport across three scenarios, demonstrate key findings: (1) ETVs achieve a 5 %–10 % cost advantage over FTVs when considering life cycle costs. (2) ETV costs are concentrated in pre-operation and post-operation phases, while fuel-powered costs dominate the operational phase. Additionally, sensitivity analysis evaluates the impact of key operational parameters on life cycle costs. The results provide airport managers with optimized strategies for towing operations for cost efficiency and airport decarbonization.
随着航空旅行需求的增加,用电动拖曳车(etv)取代燃油拖曳车(ftv)是降低机场地面服务成本的一种行之有效的策略。这些ETV车队的有效部署和运营在很大程度上依赖于复杂的优化模型来管理他们的日常调度和收费。然而,以往的优化模型往往忽略了综合生命周期评估(LCA),采用了简化的收费假设,限制了其准确性和实用性。本研究通过引入创新的考虑生命周期时间窗的电动拖车路径问题(ETVRPTW-LC)模型,将生命周期成本分为固定成本、运营成本和环境成本,解决了这些差距。此外,与传统的线性或完全充电方法相比,集成三阶段线性充电和部分充电策略可以更准确地模拟ETV充电的非线性和操作现实,从而提高模型的保真度。采用自适应大邻域搜索(ALNS)算法和模拟退火(SA)算法求解局部最优性。利用南京禄口国际机场三种场景的数据进行数值实验,得出了主要结论:(1)在考虑生命周期成本时,etv比ftv实现了5% - 10%的成本优势。(2) ETV成本集中在运行前和运行后阶段,而燃料动力成本在运行阶段占主导地位。此外,敏感性分析评估了关键运行参数对生命周期成本的影响。研究结果为机场管理者提供了拖曳作业的优化策略,以提高成本效率和机场脱碳。
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引用次数: 0
Prompt engineering in generative AI applications for commercial single pilot operations (SiPO): An emerging competency 商业单试点操作(SiPO)生成式人工智能应用中的快速工程:一种新兴能力
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102916
Konstantinos Pechlivanis , Dimitrios Ziakkas
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引用次数: 0
Leadership, safety climate, and neuroticism: Integrating organizational and individual factors into the prediction of air technicians’ safety behaviors 领导、安全气候与神经质:整合组织与个人因素对航空技术人员安全行为的预测
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102928
Chaocao Yang , Shuai Xu , Xudong Xie , Yuan Li , Ming Ji , Xuqun You
Air technicians' safety behavior is crucial to aviation safety, and thus it is important to identify factors that may enhance such behavior and explore its mechanisms. By incorporating Safety-Specific Transformational Leadership (SSTL), safety climate, and neuroticism, this study examines whether, how, and when SSTL predicts air technicians' safety behaviors from the perspective of both organizational and individual factors. Correlation, mediation, and moderation analyses were conducted on data from a sample of 995 air technicians from six aviation enterprises in China. The results indicate that SSTL was positively related to air technicians' safety behavior and that this relationship was partially mediated by safety climate. Moreover, neuroticism moderated this effect, such that the positive relationship between SSTL and safety behavior was stronger in air technicians with a higher level of neuroticism. Theoretically, this study combines leadership and personality in a unified framework, enriching understanding of their joint role in predicting safety behaviors. Practically, it guides aviation enterprises to strengthen SSTL and adopt personality-sensitive management to enhance technicians’ safety behaviors.
航空技术人员的安全行为对航空安全至关重要,因此,识别可能增强航空技术人员安全行为的因素并探索其机制具有重要意义。本研究将安全特定型转型领导(SSTL)、安全气候和神经质相结合,从组织和个人因素的角度考察SSTL是否、如何以及何时预测航空技术人员的安全行为。对来自中国6家航空企业的995名航空技术人员的数据进行了相关、中介和调节分析。结果表明,SSTL与航空技术人员的安全行为呈正相关,且安全气候在其中起部分中介作用。此外,神经质会调节这一效应,神经质程度越高的航空技师的安全行为与SSTL之间的正相关关系越强。理论上,本研究将领导力和人格结合在一个统一的框架中,丰富了对它们在预测安全行为中的共同作用的理解。在实践中,引导航空企业加强SSTL,采用个性敏感管理,提高技术人员的安全行为。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing public acceptance of urban air mobility: Behavioral insights 评估公众对城市空中交通的接受程度:行为洞察
IF 3.6 2区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102907
Fatemeh Nazari , Mohamadhossein Noruzoliaee , Khandker Nurul Habib
Urban air mobility (UAM) integrates autonomy, electrification, and sharing technologies into air travel with the prospect of connected multimodal transportation systems. Despite technological advances, public acceptance is identified in the literature to be a potential barrier to the widespread UAM deployment in the early stages and its sustainable long-run growth. Here, we investigate whether and what population cohorts embrace UAM as a travel mode to get to an airport by collecting a stated preferences sample dataset in Chicago. A hybrid choice model is then estimated, which accounts for latent or taste heterogeneity in the UAM acceptance behavior, to identify heterogeneous cohorts of UAM (non)users by their (un)observable characteristics and traits. The results provide behavioral and strategic insights that can inform stakeholders and policy makers. Notably, the propensity for UAM is found to be promoted by utilitarian and hedonic beliefs, hindered by acrophobia, and unassociated with safety and security concerns, environmental concerns, and perception of transportation-related benefits. The statistical insignificance of complementary ground access to UAM vertiports can inform strategic infrastructure investment decisions on locating vertiports, specifically by discouraging investments in establishing vertiports in Chicago North Side and downtown. By estimating the model in the willingness-to-pay space, the value of time (hours/$) for UAM, ridehail, rail, and car are directly measured at 72.736, 42.929, 16.268, and 12.357, respectively.
城市空中交通(UAM)将自动驾驶、电气化和共享技术整合到航空旅行中,并有望实现互联的多式联运系统。尽管技术进步,但在文献中,公众接受度被认为是早期广泛部署UAM及其可持续长期增长的潜在障碍。在这里,我们通过收集芝加哥的陈述偏好样本数据集,调查人群是否以及哪些人群将UAM作为前往机场的旅行模式。然后估计了一个混合选择模型,该模型考虑了UAM接受行为的潜在或味道异质性,通过UAM(非)用户的(不可观察的)特征和特征来识别异质队列。研究结果为利益相关者和政策制定者提供了行为和战略见解。值得注意的是,UAM的倾向被发现受到功利主义和享乐主义信仰的促进,受到恐高症的阻碍,与安全和保障问题、环境问题和交通相关利益的感知无关。UAM垂直机场的互补地面通道在统计上的不显著性可以为定位垂直机场的战略基础设施投资决策提供信息,特别是通过阻止在芝加哥北部和市中心建立垂直机场的投资。通过在支付意愿空间中估算模型,直接测算出UAM、拼车、铁路和汽车的时间价值(小时/美元)分别为72.736、42.929、16.268和12.357。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Air Transport Management
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