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The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Global Soybean Markets and China's Imports 极端天气事件对全球大豆市场和中国进口的影响
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12632
Xinran Hu, Yumei Zhang, Shenggen Fan, Kevin Z. Chen, Qi Wu

China imports 65% of the globally traded soybeans to meet the demand for vegetable oil and animal feed, accounting for about 85% of the country's total consumption. Extreme weather events (EWEs) significantly disrupt the global soybean market, with impacts transmitted to China. Using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) and a global agricultural partial equilibrium model, this research examines the effects of EWEs on global soybean production, trade, and China's soybean-related sectors. The findings indicate that single-country EWEs have modest impacts, but simultaneous EWEs in multiple countries lead to global soybean production declines of 8.8%–17.1%, resulting in world price increases of 9.5%–33.2% and a decrease in China's imports by 1.5%–20.7%. Soybean oil and meal prices in China would increase by 0.8%–16.7%, and meat prices would rise by 0.1%–3.9%. Consequently, consumer spending on soybeans and meat may increase by 10.7–174.1 billion yuan. China's soybean stocks play a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of EWEs. Releasing stocks can limit soybean price hikes by up to 8.3% and meat price hikes by up to 1%, potentially lowering consumer spending on soybeans and meat by up to 37.4 billion yuan. Several measures are proposed to mitigate the impacts of EWEs and enhance resilience, including international cooperation for stabilising production, improving domestic stock and demand management, and building production capacity.

中国进口了全球65%的大豆,以满足植物油和动物饲料的需求,约占中国总消费量的85%。极端天气事件严重扰乱了全球大豆市场,并影响到了中国。本研究利用叠加历元分析(叠加历元分析)和全球农业部分均衡模型,考察了ewe对全球大豆生产、贸易和中国大豆相关部门的影响。研究结果表明,单个国家的ewe影响不大,但多个国家同时发生的ewe导致全球大豆产量下降8.8%-17.1%,导致世界价格上涨9.5%-33.2%,中国进口减少1.5%-20.7%。中国的豆油和豆粕价格将上涨0.8%-16.7%,肉类价格将上涨0.1%-3.9%。因此,消费者在大豆和肉类上的支出可能会增加107 - 1741亿元。中国的大豆库存在缓解ewe影响方面发挥着至关重要的作用。释放库存可以限制大豆价格上涨8.3%,肉类价格上涨1%,这可能会使消费者在大豆和肉类上的支出减少至多人民币374亿元。为减轻环境影响和增强抵御力,提出了若干措施,包括开展国际合作以稳定生产、改善国内库存和需求管理以及建设生产能力。
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引用次数: 0
Weathering the Storm: Trade Openness and the Resilience of Agricultural Markets Under Increasing Weather Extremes 《风平浪静:极端天气加剧下的贸易开放与农产品市场弹性》
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12635
Marcel Adenäuer, Clara Frezal, Thomas Chatzopoulos

We analyse how a higher level of trade integration in global agricultural markets can mitigate food-security risks in a world where agro-climatic events increase both in frequency and intensity. By incorporating stochastically simulated crop-yield reductions into a partial-equilibrium model of global agricultural markets, we compare commodity supply, demand and price responses under two alternative trade pathways: a trade-liberalised world and a trade-restricted world. By implementing the same sets of yield reductions (input) on these two pathways and comparing synthesised market outcomes (output), we examine the role of trade as a mechanism for ensuring more resilient agricultural markets. Our findings indicate that trade integration could stabilise food availability and mitigate domestic and world price volatility. While trade policies can play a significant role in mitigating food-security risks in a climate-uncertain future, they must be complemented by broader policies to enhance global resilience and food security.

我们分析了在一个农业气候事件频率和强度都在增加的世界里,全球农业市场中更高水平的贸易一体化如何能够减轻粮食安全风险。通过将随机模拟的作物减产纳入全球农业市场的部分均衡模型,我们比较了两种不同贸易路径下的商品供应、需求和价格反应:贸易自由化世界和贸易限制世界。通过在这两种途径上实施相同的减产(投入),并比较综合市场结果(产出),我们研究了贸易作为确保更具弹性的农业市场的机制的作用。我们的研究结果表明,贸易一体化可以稳定粮食供应,减轻国内和世界价格波动。尽管在气候不确定的未来,贸易政策可以在减轻粮食安全风险方面发挥重要作用,但必须辅之以更广泛的政策,以增强全球抵御力和粮食安全。
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引用次数: 0
The Potential for Yield Improvements in Developing Countries to Reduce Their Exposure to Extreme Weather Shocks in Exporting Countries 发展中国家提高产量以减少出口国遭受极端天气冲击的可能性
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12634
Simone Pieralli, Spire Arsov, Christian Elleby, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, Beatrice Farkas

This article explores the impact of extreme weather on food availability and how yield gap reductions in developing countries could make them less vulnerable to the imported effects of extreme weather shocks. Our extreme weather scenario results show that simultaneous weather-related shocks to crop yields in main exporting countries could lead to substantial increases in world food prices, threatening food security in countries strongly reliant on food imports. Maize and wheat prices increase by 40% and 50% due to extreme weather, increasing food expenditure in import-dependent countries (by up to 5%). Countering this effect, closing yield gaps in developing countries would substantially lower international prices and food expenditures, especially in developing countries. If the yield gap is reduced by 20% relative to economic potential over a 6-year period (yield gap scenario), maize and world prices decrease by 20% and 15%, decreasing food expenditure per capita in import-dependent countries. Finally, a combined scenario shows that the yield improvements only partially offset the impact of imported shocks on import-dependent countries, and these effects vary by country, depending on their production capability and their net-trade position. World maize and wheat prices increase by only 9% and 26% and still raise food expenditure in import-dependent countries.

本文探讨了极端天气对粮食供应的影响,以及减少发展中国家的产量差距如何使它们不那么容易受到极端天气冲击的进口影响。我们的极端天气情景结果表明,主要出口国的作物产量同时受到与天气有关的冲击,可能导致世界粮食价格大幅上涨,严重依赖粮食进口的国家的粮食安全受到威胁。由于极端天气,玉米和小麦价格分别上涨了40%和50%,增加了依赖进口的国家的粮食支出(最多5%)。消除这种影响,缩小发展中国家的产量差距将大大降低国际价格和粮食支出,特别是在发展中国家。如果产量缺口相对于经济潜力在6年期间减少20%(产量缺口情景),玉米和世界价格将分别下降20%和15%,从而减少依赖进口的国家的人均粮食支出。最后,综合情景表明,产量的提高只能部分抵消进口冲击对依赖进口的国家的影响,而这些影响因国家的生产能力和净贸易状况而异。世界玉米和小麦价格仅上涨9%和26%,但仍会增加依赖进口国家的粮食支出。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Climate Variability on Food Security in Bangladesh Under Alternative Trade Regimes 在替代贸易制度下,气候变化对孟加拉国粮食安全的影响
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12636
Mohammad Hasan Mobarok, Wyatt Thompson

This study examines the impact of climate change on food security in Bangladesh, focusing on rice production and its sensitivity to climatic variability. By linking precipitation and temperature to rice yields and incorporating these relationships into a trade regime-switching partial equilibrium model, the research simulates future market conditions under alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The analysis is divided into two parts: first, estimating yield variations for Bangladesh's two main rice harvests using historical weather data and stochastic simulations of future conditions; second, modelling the economic impacts of yield fluctuations under autarky and import parity regimes. The latter reduces the effects of domestic shocks but increases exposure to international market shocks. Climate variability interacts with trade regimes to determine food security outcomes: the effects on food availability and access, and the stability of food supplies, can be either nil or strong depending on the trade regime. The effectiveness of market interventions further depends on the trade regime in place, strengthening the case for more directly targeted support to food insecure households.

这项研究考察了气候变化对孟加拉国粮食安全的影响,重点是水稻生产及其对气候变化的敏感性。通过将降水和温度与水稻产量联系起来,并将这些关系纳入贸易制度转换的部分均衡模型,该研究模拟了在不同的共享社会经济途径(ssp)下的未来市场条件。分析分为两个部分:首先,利用历史天气数据和未来条件的随机模拟估计孟加拉国两个主要水稻收成的产量变化;其次,对自给自足和进口平价制度下收益率波动的经济影响进行建模。后者减少了国内冲击的影响,但增加了对国际市场冲击的敞口。气候变率与贸易制度相互作用,决定粮食安全结果:对粮食供应和获取以及粮食供应稳定性的影响可能为零,也可能很大,这取决于贸易制度。市场干预的有效性进一步取决于现有的贸易制度,这加强了对粮食不安全家庭提供更直接、有针对性支持的理由。
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引用次数: 0
JAE 2024: Report of the Editor-in-Chief JAE 2024:总编辑的报告
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12639
Jonathan Brooks

Submissions fell back in 2024 to 334 original manuscripts, a similar figure to pre-COVID levels. The drop in the number of submissions was associated with a modest increase in the acceptance rate from 8% to 11%. The Journal's acceptance rate remains higher for papers originating from Europe and North America. The Journal's Impact Factor remains similar to those of other leading field journals. The Editorial Team continues to evolve to reflect more closely the topics addressed and methods applied in journal submissions, and the journal's broad geographical coverage.

2024年,提交的原始手稿数量下降到334份,与新冠疫情前的水平相似。提交数量的下降与录取率从8%小幅上升到11%有关。《华尔街日报》对来自欧洲和北美的论文的接受率仍然较高。该期刊的影响因子与其他领先的领域期刊相似。编辑团队不断发展,以更密切地反映期刊投稿中所涉及的主题和方法,以及期刊广泛的地理覆盖范围。
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引用次数: 0
Perennial Flower Strips Can Be a Cost-Effective Tool for Pest Suppression in Orchards 多年生花条可以成为一种经济有效的果园害虫防治工具
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12631
Charlotte Howard, Paul J. Burgess, Michelle T. Fountain, Claire Brittain, Michael P. D. Garratt

Flower strips can provide many economic benefits in commercial orchards, including reducing crop damage by a problematic pest, rosy apple aphid (Dysaphis plantaginea [Passerini]). To explore the financial costs and benefits of this effect, we developed a bio-economic model to compare the establishment and opportunity costs of perennial wildflower strips with benefits derived from increased yields due to reduced D. plantaginea fruit damage under high and low pest pressure. This was calculated across three scenarios: (1) a flower strip on land that would otherwise be an extension of the standard grass headland, (2) a flower strip on land that could otherwise be used to produce apples and (3) a flower strip in the centre of an orchard. Through reduction of D. plantaginea fruit damage alone, our study shows that flower strips on the headland can be a positive financial investment. If non-crop land was not available, establishment of a flower strip in the centre of an orchard, instead of the edge, could recoup opportunity costs by providing benefits to crops on both sides of the flower strip. Our study can help guide the optimal placement of flower strips and inform subsidy value for these schemes.

在商业果园中,花条可以提供许多经济效益,包括减少一种有问题的害虫——红苹果蚜虫(Dysaphis plantaginea [Passerini])对作物的损害。为了探讨这种效应的经济成本和效益,我们建立了一个生物经济模型,比较多年生野花带的建立成本和机会成本,以及在高低虫害压力下减少车前草果实损害所带来的产量增长效益。这是在三种情况下计算出来的:(1)陆地上的花带本来是标准草岬的延伸,(2)陆地上的花带本来可以用来生产苹果,(3)果园中心的花带。仅通过减少车前草果实损害,我们的研究表明,在海岬建立花带是一项积极的经济投资。如果没有非作物用地,在果园的中心而不是边缘建立花带,可以通过为花带两侧的作物提供利益来收回机会成本。本文的研究可以帮助指导花条的最佳放置,并为这些计划提供补贴价值。
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引用次数: 0
Multinational and Domestic Firms' Participation in Food Global Value Chains: Does Institutional Quality Matter? 跨国和国内企业参与食品全球价值链:制度质量是否重要?
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12630
Valentina Raimondi, Margherita Scoppola

This study provides empirical evidence on the role of institutional quality in driving countries' participation in Global Value Chains (GVC) by distinguishing domestic from multinational firms (MNEs). Drawing on the Analytical Activities of MNEs (AMNE) database of OECD, we use a panel gravity framework to assess whether institutional quality improves GVC firms' participation in the food, beverages, and tobacco industry and whether the responsiveness to changes in institutional quality differs between domestic and multinational firms. A key finding is that the lower the institutional quality the greater the gap in participation between multinational and domestic firms. In developing countries, where institutions are relatively weak, domestic firms' GVC participation is correspondingly low relative to that of multinational firms.

本研究通过区分国内公司和跨国公司,为制度质量在推动各国参与全球价值链(GVC)中的作用提供了实证证据。利用经合组织的跨国公司分析活动(AMNE)数据库,我们使用小组重力框架来评估制度质量是否改善了全球价值链公司在食品、饮料和烟草行业的参与,以及国内公司和跨国公司对制度质量变化的反应是否存在差异。一个重要的发现是,制度质量越低,跨国公司和国内公司在参与方面的差距就越大。在制度相对薄弱的发展中国家,与跨国公司相比,国内公司的全球价值链参与相应地较低。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Surveillance and Indemnity Policy for Eradicating Exotic Livestock Diseases 消灭外来牲畜疾病的最佳监测和补偿政策
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12628
Cristina Salvioni, Paolo Vitale

We present a theoretical model that identifies the optimal resource allocation between surveillance and intervention for eradicating exotic livestock diseases. We apply a game theory approach to analyse the strategic interaction between the Animal Health Authority (AHA) and the stockbreeders. The model elucidates how the breeders' pay-offs depend upon the AHA's choices and vice versa. We first model the stockbreeder reporting decision (passive surveillance) under uncertainty. Then, we analyse how the AHA should efficiently allocate resources between active surveillance (inspections) and intervention, and determine how this trade-off is influenced by various economic factors, such as the operation size and breeders' risk attitudes. By explicitly considering the relationship between passive and active surveillance, the model reconciles the literature investigating the nexus between compensation payments and reporting with the literature on the relationship between surveillance and intervention. We use the case study of a parasite of social bee colonies, the Small Hive Beetle, in Italy, which presents no moral hazard concerns, and hence limits the complexity of the analysis. However, the model can be adapted to other types of exotic diseases and livestock. The model does not provide precise quantitative prescriptions of the optimal values to be assigned to indemnities and probability of monitoring. Rather, it contributes to the understanding of the economic factors that influence optimal surveillance and intervention strategies.

我们提出了一个理论模型,该模型确定了根除外来家畜疾病的监测和干预之间的最佳资源分配。我们运用博弈论的方法来分析动物卫生管理局(AHA)和畜牧业者之间的战略互动。该模型阐明了育种者的回报如何取决于AHA的选择,反之亦然。我们首先对不确定条件下的养殖户报告决策(被动监控)进行建模。然后,我们分析了美国家禽协会应该如何有效地在主动监测(检查)和干预之间分配资源,并确定这种权衡如何受到各种经济因素的影响,如经营规模和饲养者的风险态度。通过明确考虑被动监督和主动监督之间的关系,该模型调和了研究赔偿支付和报告之间关系的文献与研究监督和干预之间关系的文献。我们以意大利的群居蜂群中的一种寄生虫——小蜂房甲虫为例进行研究,它不存在道德风险问题,因此限制了分析的复杂性。然而,该模型可以适用于其他类型的外来疾病和牲畜。该模型没有提供最优赔偿额和监测概率的精确定量规定。相反,它有助于理解影响最佳监测和干预策略的经济因素。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Agroecological Transition on the Meat Industry: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach Applied to the French Livestock Sector 农业生态转型对肉类行业的影响:一种基于代理的建模方法应用于法国畜牧业
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12629
M. Schiavo, P. M. Aubert, C. Le Mouël

Scenarios examining the spread of agroecological transition in Europe concur that reducing livestock numbers and improving the synergies between crop and livestock areas are fundamental to curbing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing farmland biodiversity. This study employs an agent-based model to investigate the influence of a significant agroecological transition in France, which would entail a reduction in production and relocation of livestock to regions outside western France. The objective is to ascertain the impact of such a transition on the competitive dynamics within the meat industry. The large meat processors in western France, which currently dominate the market, would only process a small fraction of the livestock that would be relocated, due to higher transport costs. Their reduced market volume and share would lead to reduced profits for these processors, with some potentially going out of business because of high fixed costs. Driven by economic opportunities, small and medium-sized processors would enter the market and locate in northern, eastern and southern France. In all scenarios, increased production by small labour-intensive firms does not offset the impact of reduced production on job losses.

考察欧洲农业生态转型蔓延的情景一致认为,减少牲畜数量和改善作物和牲畜区之间的协同作用是遏制温室气体排放和增加农田生物多样性的根本。本研究采用基于代理的模型来调查法国重大农业生态转型的影响,这将导致生产减少和牲畜迁移到法国西部以外的地区。目的是确定这种转变对肉类行业内竞争动态的影响。目前占据市场主导地位的法国西部大型肉类加工商,由于运输成本较高,只会加工一小部分将被重新安置的牲畜。它们的市场数量和份额的减少将导致这些加工商的利润减少,一些加工商可能会因为高昂的固定成本而倒闭。在经济机会的推动下,中小型加工商将进入法国北部、东部和南部的市场。在所有情况下,小型劳动密集型企业的产量增加并不能抵消生产减少对失业的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Market Effects, Greenhouse Gas Reductions and Costs of Brazil's RenovaBio Programme 巴西RenovaBio计划的市场效应、温室气体减排和成本
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12627
Jong-Ik Kim, Wyatt Thompson

Brazil's RenovaBio programme aims to reduce transportation sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The programme sets falling carbon emission limits that fuel producers meet using tradable decarbonisation credits (CBIOs). This programme creates a system of new links between biomass product markets and bioenergy markets, with producer and consumer implications, that can be assessed using appropriate forward-looking economic methods. We model the CBIO and fuel markets using a structural model to simulate the impacts of RenovaBio. We link this model to a widely used model of agricultural and agricultural markets to analyse crop and crop product interactions. If implemented as announced, the programme would expand biofuel consumption and feedstock prices while decreasing petroleum product use. Our estimates highlight the potential for large impacts, similar by some measures to the impacts of US biofuel use mandates, subject to uncertainty about how the reduction targets evolve and how the industry responds. A programme of this type in a major biofuel and agricultural commodity producer and user affects global agricultural and food systems, as Brazil's supply to the world market diminishes and prices of ethanol and biofuel feedstocks worldwide are increased, depending on how the programme is implemented.

巴西的RenovaBio项目旨在减少交通部门的温室气体(GHG)排放。该计划设定了不断下降的碳排放限制,燃料生产商使用可交易的脱碳信用额(CBIOs)来满足这一限制。该方案在生物质产品市场和生物能源市场之间建立了一个新的联系系统,具有生产者和消费者的影响,可以使用适当的前瞻性经济方法进行评估。我们使用结构模型对CBIO和燃料市场进行建模,以模拟RenovaBio的影响。我们将该模型与广泛使用的农业和农业市场模型联系起来,以分析作物和作物产品的相互作用。如果按照宣布的那样实施,该计划将扩大生物燃料消费和原料价格,同时减少石油产品的使用。我们的估计强调了潜在的巨大影响,类似于美国生物燃料使用指令的影响,受制于减排目标如何演变和行业如何应对的不确定性。在一个主要的生物燃料和农业商品生产国和用户实施这类方案会影响全球农业和粮食系统,因为巴西对世界市场的供应减少,而世界范围内乙醇和生物燃料原料的价格上涨,这取决于该方案的执行方式。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Agricultural Economics
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