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Does access to improved grain storage technology increase farmers' welfare? Experimental evidence from maize farming in Ethiopia 获得改良的粮食储存技术是否会增加农民的福利?埃塞俄比亚玉米种植的实验证据
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12546
Betelhem M. Negede, Hugo De Groote, Bart Minten, Maarten Voors

Seasonal price variability for cereals is two to three times higher in Africa than on the international reference market. Seasonality is even more pronounced when access to appropriate storage and opportunities for price arbitrage are limited. As smallholder farmers typically sell their production after harvest, when prices are low, this leads to lower incomes as well as higher food insecurity during the lean season, when prices are high. One solution to reduce seasonal stress is the use of improved storage technologies. Using data from a randomised controlled trial, in a major maize-growing region of Western Ethiopia, we study the impact of hermetic bags, a technology that protects stored grain against insect pests, so that the grain can be stored longer. Despite considerable price seasonality—maize prices in the lean season are 36% higher than after harvesting—we find no evidence that hermetic bags improve welfare, except that access to these bags allowed for a marginally longer storage period of maize intended for sale by 2 weeks. But this did not translate into measurable welfare gains as we found no changes in any of our welfare outcome indicators. This ‘near-null’ effect is due to the fact that maize storage losses in our study region are relatively lower than previous studies suggested—around 10% of the quantity stored—likely because of the widespread use of an alternative to protect maize during storage, for example a cheap but highly toxic fumigant. These findings are important for policies that seek to promote improved storage technologies in these settings.

非洲谷物价格的季节性变化比国际参考市场高出两到三倍。当获得适当储存和价格套利的机会有限时,季节性就更加明显。由于小农通常在收获后价格较低时出售他们的产品,这导致收入较低,以及在价格较高的淡季粮食更无保障。减少季节性压力的一个解决方案是使用改良的储存技术。我们利用随机对照试验的数据,在埃塞俄比亚西部的一个主要玉米种植区研究了密封袋的影响,这种技术可以保护储存的谷物免受虫害,从而延长谷物的储存时间。尽管价格具有很大的季节性--收获季节的玉米价格要比收获后高出 36%,但我们没有发现任何证据表明密封袋改善了福利,只是由于使用了这些密封袋,用于销售的玉米的储存期略微延长了 2 周。但这并没有转化为可衡量的福利收益,因为我们发现任何福利结果指标都没有发生变化。造成这种 "近乎零 "效应的原因是,在我们的研究地区,玉米储存损失比以前的研究表明的要低--约为储存量的 10%--这可能是因为在储存期间广泛使用了保护玉米的替代品,例如廉价但剧毒的熏蒸剂。这些发现对于在这些环境中推广改进储存技术的政策非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
One size does not fit all: Heterogeneous economic impact of integrated pest management practices for mango fruit flies in Kenya—a machine learning approach 一刀切:肯尼亚芒果果蝇病虫害综合治理实践的异质经济影响——一种机器学习方法
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-24 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12550
Kelvin Mulungu, Zewdu Ayalew Abro, Wambui Beatrice Muriithi, Menale Kassie, Miachael Kidoido, Subramanian Sevgan, Samira Mohamed, Chrysantus Tanga, Fathiya Khamis

Most previous studies evaluating agricultural technology adoption focus on estimating homogeneous average treatment effects across technology adopters. Understanding the heterogeneous effects and drivers of impact heterogeneity should enable interventions to be better targeted to maximise benefits. We apply machine learning using data from a randomised controlled trial to estimate the heterogeneous treatment effect of fruit fly IPM practices (i.e., parasitoids, orchard sanitation, use of food bait, biopesticides, male annihilation technique, and their combinations) in Central Kenya. Results suggest significant heterogeneity in the effect of IPM practices conditioned on household characteristics. The most important covariates explaining differences in treatment effects are wealth, distance to the mango fruit market, age of the household head, labour and experience in mango farming. Results further indicate that those with fewer mango trees benefit more from most IPM practices. Additional analysis across other covariates shows mixed results but generally suggests significant differences between households benefiting the most and those benefiting the least from IPM practices.

以往大多数评估农业技术采用情况的研究都侧重于估算技术采用者的同质平均治疗效果。了解异质性效应和影响异质性的驱动因素,可以使干预措施更有针对性,从而实现效益最大化。我们利用随机对照试验的数据进行机器学习,以估计肯尼亚中部果蝇 IPM 方法(即寄生虫、果园卫生、食物诱饵的使用、生物农药、雄蝇歼灭技术及其组合)的异质性治疗效果。结果表明,综合虫害管理方法的效果因家庭特征而存在明显的异质性。解释处理效果差异的最重要协变量是财富、与芒果市场的距离、户主年龄、劳动力和芒果种植经验。结果进一步表明,芒果树较少的家庭从大多数虫害综合防治措施中获益更多。对其他协变量的其他分析结果不一,但总体上表明,从虫害综合防治措施中获益最多的家庭和获益最少的家庭之间存在显著差异。
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引用次数: 0
JAE, 2022: Report of the Editor-in-Chief JAE,2022:主编报告
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12547
David Harvey

Submissions to the Journal have stabilised since the Covid-related surge in 2020, and continue their strong international pattern. Our response times continue to meet or exceed our targets, with a few regrettable exceptions, for which our sincere apologies. The JAE's citation impact factor increased again in 2021 to 4.16, a modest increase from the 2020 score. Our total 2-year citations, however, show a worrying decline since last year. Our sincere thanks are due to our authors and our many reviewers for their contributions. Wiley continue to provide a strong publishing platform with our full archive, generating continuing growth in downloads.

自2020年与新冠肺炎相关的激增以来,向《华尔街日报》提交的稿件已经稳定下来,并继续保持着强劲的国际格局。我们的反应时间继续达到或超过我们的目标,只有少数令人遗憾的例外,对此我们深表歉意。JAE的引文影响因子在2021年再次增加到4.16,比2020年的分数略有增加。然而,自去年以来,我们两年的引用总量出现了令人担忧的下降。我们衷心感谢我们的作者和众多评论家的贡献。威利继续提供一个强大的出版平台,提供完整的档案,下载量持续增长。
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引用次数: 0
Surrogate modelling of a detailed farm-level model using deep learning 使用深度学习对详细的农场级模型进行代理建模
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-06 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12543
Linmei Shang, Jifeng Wang, David Schäfer, Thomas Heckelei, Juergen Gall, Franziska Appel, Hugo Storm

Technological change co-determines agri-environmental performance and farm structural transformation. Meaningful impact assessment of related policies can be derived from farm-level models that are rich in technology details and environmental indicators, integrated with agent-based models capturing dynamic farm interaction. However, such integration faces considerable challenges affecting model development, debugging and computational demands in application. Surrogate modelling using deep learning techniques can facilitate such integration for simulations with broad regional coverage. We develop surrogates of the farm model FarmDyn using different architectures of neural networks. Our specifically designed evaluation metrics allow practitioners to assess trade-offs among model fit, inference time and data requirements. All tested neural networks achieve a high fit but differ substantially in inference time. The Multilayer Perceptron shows almost top performance in all criteria but saves strongly on inference time compared to a Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory.

技术变革共同决定着农业环境绩效和农场结构转型。对相关政策进行有意义的影响评估,可以从农场层面的模型中得出,这些模型包含丰富的技术细节和环境指标,并与捕捉农场动态互动的基于代理的模型相结合。然而,这种整合面临着相当大的挑战,影响着模型开发、调试和应用中的计算需求。利用深度学习技术进行代用建模可以促进这种集成,从而实现广泛区域覆盖的模拟。我们利用不同的神经网络架构开发了农场模型 FarmDyn 的代用模型。我们专门设计的评估指标可让从业人员评估模型拟合度、推理时间和数据要求之间的权衡。所有测试的神经网络都达到了较高的拟合度,但在推理时间上却有很大差异。多层感知器在所有标准上都表现出了几乎最高的性能,但与双向长短期记忆相比,它在推理时间上节省了很多。
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引用次数: 0
Food commodity price changes and consumer welfare in Bangladesh: Valuable lessons for today 孟加拉国食品价格变化与消费者福利:今天的宝贵教训
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12544
Kazi Tamim Rahman, Aleksan Shanoyan, Vardges Hovhannisyan

The recent rise in global food prices threatens many countries worldwide, especially the vulnerable populations. Viable coping strategies can only be designed based on the important policy lessons learned from the experiences of these countries in confronting the similar shocks of 2007–2011. However, the disproportionate effects of these events and the impacts of policy responses remain largely unexplored. We examine the impact of a food price surge and the effectiveness of various mitigating policies in Bangladesh, one of the most populous, densely populated countries in the world that is plagued by poverty. Specifically, we combine individual-level expenditure survey data with recent advances in consumer theory to examine the welfare consequences across income groups and geographic areas of the country over 2000–2016. Our empirical findings lend support to the hypothesis that the brunt of the price surge was borne by relatively less affluent and rural households, and government poverty alleviation programmes were largely ineffective.

最近全球粮食价格上涨威胁到世界上许多国家,特别是弱势群体。只有从这些国家应对 2007-2011 年类似冲击的经验中吸取重要的政策教训,才能设计出可行的应对战略。然而,这些事件的过度影响以及政策应对措施的影响在很大程度上仍未得到探讨。孟加拉国是世界上人口最多、最稠密的国家之一,也是饱受贫困困扰的国家之一。具体而言,我们将个人层面的支出调查数据与消费者理论的最新进展相结合,研究了 2000-2016 年间该国不同收入群体和不同地理区域的福利后果。我们的实证研究结果支持这样的假设,即价格飙升首当其冲的是相对不太富裕的家庭和农村家庭,而政府的扶贫计划在很大程度上是无效的。
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引用次数: 0
On estimating Armington elasticities for Japan's meat imports 关于估算日本肉类进口的阿明顿弹性
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12539
Satoshi Nakano, Kazuhiko Nishimura

By fully accounting for the distinct tariff regimes levied on imported meat, we estimate substitution elasticities of Japan's two-stage import aggregation functions for beef, chicken and pork. Although the regression analysis crucially depends on the price that consumers face, the post-tariff price of imported meat depends not only on ad valorem duties but also on tariff rate quotas and gate price system regimes. The effective tariff rate is consequently evaluated by utilising monthly transaction data. To address potential endogeneity problems, we apply exchange rates that we believe to be independent of the demand shocks for imported meat. The panel nature of the data allows us to retrieve the first-stage aggregates via time dummy variables, free of demand shocks, to be used as part of the explanatory variable and as an instrument in the second-stage regression.

通过充分考虑对进口肉类征收的不同关税制度,我们估计了日本牛肉、鸡肉和猪肉的两阶段进口聚合函数的替代弹性。虽然回归分析主要取决于消费者面临的价格,但进口肉类的关税后价格不仅取决于从价税,还取决于关税配额和关口价格制度制度。因此,利用每月交易数据来评估有效费率。为了解决潜在的内生性问题,我们采用了我们认为独立于进口肉类需求冲击的汇率。数据的面板性质使我们能够通过时间虚拟变量检索第一阶段的总量,不受需求冲击,用作解释变量的一部分,并作为第二阶段回归的工具。
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引用次数: 0
The role of access to finance in disaster recovery: Evidence from coastal communities in India 获得资金在灾后恢复中的作用:印度沿海社区的证据
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-28 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12541
Marup Hossain, Tisorn Songsermsawas, Robinson H. Toguem

Natural disasters affect economic activities and welfare of small-scale producers in developing countries, but may also offer opportunities to reinvest in productive asset, economic capital, and new technologies for future economic prospects. This paper investigates the impacts of a livelihood recovery project that provided access to finance and rehabilitated communal infrastructures in the coastal communities of Tamil Nadu, India which were severely affected by the 2004 tsunami. We replicate the project's eligibility criteria to build the counterfactual to identify control households based on the validation of secondary data and administrative records. Using data from a carefully designed primary survey, we estimate the impacts of providing access to finance and rehabilitating communal infrastructures on economic and livelihood outcomes. Results indicate positive and significant impacts on income, asset and food security. These impacts are mainly driven by improved access to finance provided and participation in groups. Findings highlight the importance of ensuring access to finance for sustainable economic recovery among small-scale producers, particularly in the aftermath of natural disasters.

自然灾害会影响发展中国家小规模生产者的经济活动和福利,但也可能为未来的经济前景提供对生产性资产、经济资本和新技术进行再投资的机会。本文研究了一个生计恢复项目的影响,该项目为印度泰米尔纳德邦受 2004 年海啸严重影响的沿海社区提供了融资渠道,并修复了社区基础设施。我们复制了该项目的资格标准,以建立反事实,在验证二手数据和行政记录的基础上确定对照家庭。利用精心设计的初级调查数据,我们估算了提供融资渠道和恢复社区基础设施对经济和生计成果的影响。结果表明,这些措施对收入、资产和粮食安全产生了积极而重大的影响。这些影响主要是由于提供了更多的融资渠道和参与团体活动。研究结果凸显了确保小规模生产者获得资金以实现可持续经济复苏的重要性,尤其是在自然灾害发生后。
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引用次数: 0
Market intermediaries, storage and policy reforms 市场中介、仓储和政策改革
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12542
Steve McCorriston, Donald MacLaren

Intermediaries play a crucial role in the functioning of agricultural and food markets in developing countries through linking production, imports and storage with consumption. We analyse how competition in the intermediary sector and alternative forms of intermediaries determine the incentives for storage and market outcomes more generally. We apply this framework to the Egyptian wheat sector as an illustrative case study, a country where food security is a priority, where both forms of intermediaries co-exist and undertake storage but where issues of reforms to the role of intermediaries have been raised. Through stochastic simulation, we analyse two changes in government policy: first, the effects of changing the policy instruments with both types of intermediaries undertaking storage; second, relating to market reforms where the private sector replaces the storage function of the parastatal. These issues have wider significance for addressing the interaction between food security and a wide range of policy reforms including de-regulation of parastatals in developing countries.

通过将生产、进口和储存与消费联系起来,中间商在发展中国家农产品和粮食市场的运作中发挥着至关重要的作用。我们分析了中间商部门的竞争和中间商的替代形式如何决定仓储的激励机制和更广泛的市场结果。我们将这一框架应用于埃及的小麦行业,将其作为一个说明性案例进行研究。埃及是一个以粮食安全为优先事项的国家,两种形式的中间商并存并进行储存,但中间商作用的改革问题已经提出。通过随机模拟,我们分析了政府政策的两种变化:第一,在两种类型的中间商都承担储存任务的情况下,改变政策工具的影响;第二,与市场改革有关的变化,即私营部门取代半官方机构的储存职能。这些问题对于解决粮食安全与一系列政策改革(包括取消对发展中国家半官方机构的监管)之间的相互作用具有更广泛的意义。
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引用次数: 0
Wolves' contribution to structural change in grazing systems among swiss alpine summer farms: The evidence from causal random forest 狼对瑞士高山夏季农场放牧系统结构变化的贡献:来自因果随机森林的证据
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-08 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12540
Steffen Mink, Daria Loginova, Stefan Mann

The return of wolves to Swiss mountains and the damage they cause to sheep and goat herds in the region have raised concerns about a consequent wave of farm closures. In this paper, we examine the relationship between wolf attacks and the decline of Alpine summer farms, a specific high-altitude farm type. We collected farm structure data and monitoring data on wolf attacks between 2004 and 2021 and analysed them using a causal random forest method, enabling a detailed analysis of the relation between wolf attacks and the number of different types of Alpine summer farms at a regional level. The results show that the farming systems are unaffected by incidental and infrequent wolf attacks, but that a high number of wolf attacks in a region is related to faster decrease in number of grazing systems where sheep are most vulnerable to such attacks. In contrast, systems that allow for better herd protection tend to show an increase in areas with frequent wolf attacks.

狼群重返瑞士山区以及它们对该地区绵羊和山羊造成的破坏引发了人们对随之而来的农场关闭潮的担忧。在本文中,我们研究了狼群袭击与阿尔卑斯夏季农场(一种特殊的高海拔农场类型)衰退之间的关系。我们收集了 2004 年至 2021 年期间的农场结构数据和狼群袭击监测数据,并使用因果随机森林方法对其进行了分析,从而在区域层面上详细分析了狼群袭击与不同类型的阿尔卑斯夏季农场数量之间的关系。结果表明,养殖系统不受偶然和不经常发生的狼群袭击的影响,但一个地区狼群袭击次数多,则羊群最容易受到袭击的放牧系统数量减少得更快。与此相反,能够更好地保护羊群的放牧系统往往会增加狼群频繁袭击的地区。
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引用次数: 0
Migrant remittances, agriculture investment and cropping patterns 移民汇款、农业投资和种植模式
IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12526
Ubaid Ali, Mazhar Mughal, Lionel de Boisdeffre

We investigate how the receipt and amount of domestic or international transfers influences household decisions regarding farm investment and the selection of capital and labour-intensive crops. We argue that, even though recipient households may use additional income to increase agricultural investment, investment can fall in the short run if labour constraints arising from the migrant member's absence are binding and capital accumulation is suboptimal. Employing a set of endogenous treatment estimates, we test this hypothesis on data from 5636 rural households in Pakistan. Our findings show a substantial difference between recipient and non-recipient households in terms of their economic behaviour. Recipient households make 100% less agricultural investment and generate 82% less production compared to non-recipient households. The estimates are found to be robust when tested with alternate empirical techniques (Heckman Selection and matching). The impact is stronger in the case of households that receive domestic transfers, with 100% less farm investment and 77% less production than non-recipient households. Remittances result in a decrease in production of both capital- and labour-intensive crops, reflecting a decline in overall farm activity. Similar farm investment and cropping patterns are observed relative to the amount of remittances received. The results are robust to different model specifications and estimation procedures.

本研究调查了国内或国际转移的接收和数量如何影响家庭关于农业投资和资本和劳动密集型作物选择的决策。我们开发了一个概念框架来假设,即使接收家庭可能有可能利用额外的收入来提高农业投资,如果移民成员缺席引起的劳动力约束具有约束力,并且资本积累不是最优的,那么短期内投资就会下降。采用一组内生处理估计,我们对来自巴基斯坦的5636个农村家庭的数据进行了实证检验。我们的研究结果表明,在经济行为方面,接受者和非接受者家庭之间存在巨大差异。与非受助家庭相比,受助家庭的农业投资减少99.64%,产量减少82%。当用赫克曼选择和匹配替代经验技术进行测试时,发现估计是稳健的。接受国内转移支付的家庭受到的影响更大,与未接受国内转移支付的家庭相比,其农业投资减少99.87%,产量减少77%。汇款导致资本和劳动密集型作物的产量下降,反映出总体农业活动的下降。相对于收到的汇款数额,可以观察到类似的农业投资和种植模式。结果对不同的模型规格和估计程序都具有鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Agricultural Economics
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