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Direct and Indirect Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on EU Agri-Food Trade COVID - 19大流行对欧盟农业食品贸易的直接和间接影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70015
Mariusz Hamulczuk, Grzegorz Szafrański, Karolina Pawlak, Daniel A. Sumner

Introducing and lifting COVID-19 restrictions caused significant disruptions throughout the world economy, including in international trade. This study employs a panel gravity model to examine the impact of the pandemic on the agri-food trade of EU countries. Specifically, we estimate the direct effects of the intensity of lockdown-type policies on bilateral trade across country, product, and time dimensions, and the indirect effects of those policies as they work through domestic market impacts. We also decompose the indirect effects of COVID-19 between the domestic demand side and supply side impacts. We provide insights into the sources of pandemic disruptions by comparing a ‘no-COVID’ counterfactual scenario from March 2020 to February 2022 to the COVID-19 reality. Our data analysis reveals a loss of 162 billion EUR in agri-food trade due to direct and indirect effects of COVID-19, equivalent to 11.3% of imports over the period. Approximately half of this total is comprised of intra-EU bilateral trade. The COVID-19 effects were proportionally greatest in the trade of fats and oils, and animal-origin products, while vegetable-origin and processed food products were affected only about half as much. Reduced intra-industry demand was a dominant source of indirect effects in the trade of non-processed food. In turn, the weakening of consumer demand was the main factor behind trade losses in processed food imports. The proportional trade impacts differ greatly across EU countries.

引入和取消COVID - 19限制措施对包括国际贸易在内的整个世界经济造成了重大干扰。本研究采用面板重力模型来检验大流行对欧盟国家农业食品贸易的影响。具体而言,我们估计了封锁型政策强度对跨国家、产品和时间维度的双边贸易的直接影响,以及这些政策通过国内市场影响产生的间接影响。我们还将COVID - 19的间接影响分解为国内需求侧和供给侧的影响。我们通过比较2020年3月至2022年2月“无COVID”的反事实情景与COVID - 19的现实情况,深入了解大流行中断的来源。我们的数据分析显示,由于COVID - 19的直接和间接影响,农业食品贸易损失了1620亿欧元,相当于同期进口的11.3%。其中约一半由欧盟内部双边贸易构成。在油脂和动物源性产品贸易中,COVID - 19的影响最大,而蔬菜源性和加工食品的影响仅为其一半左右。行业内需求的减少是非加工食品贸易间接影响的主要来源。反过来,消费者需求的减弱是加工食品进口贸易损失背后的主要因素。欧盟国家之间的贸易影响比例差异很大。
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引用次数: 0
Farm Policies and Their Impact on Sector Composition and Risk Aversion 农业政策及其对行业构成和风险规避的影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70014
Theodoros Skevas, Wyatt Thompson

This study examines how farm policies influence the composition and risk aversion of the farm sector using an agent-based model based on Missouri crop farms. The analysis considers varying farmer risk aversion, payoffs from farming and other activities, and land competition. Policy scenarios include no policy, land subsidies and revenue floors. Findings indicate policies significantly affect who farms and sector-wide risk aversion. Without policies, risk-averse farmers exit, reducing sector-wide risk aversion. Conversely, risk-mitigating policies retain risk-averse farmers, increasing sectoral risk aversion. The study further finds that altering the composition of individuals in the farm sector through risk-reduction policies increases the demand for such policies. These results trace the risk-reducing effects of policies from individual decisions about farm entry, expansion and exit to broader impacts on sector structure. For scientists, this highlights the need to consider sector-level risk aversion as part of the research problem, not merely an exogenous aspect of a fixed population. For policymakers, results indicate that farm program design may affect who farms and lead to lower average risk tolerance, potentially increasing the demand for further publicly supported risk management tools.

本研究考察了农业政策如何影响农业部门的构成和风险规避,使用基于代理的模型,以密苏里州的农作物农场为基础。该分析考虑了不同农民的风险厌恶程度、农业和其他活动的收益以及土地竞争。政策情景包括没有政策、土地补贴和最低收入。研究结果表明,政策显著影响了谁在农场和整个行业的风险厌恶。如果没有政策,风险厌恶的农民就会退出,从而降低整个行业的风险厌恶程度。相反,风险缓解政策留住了风险厌恶的农民,增加了行业风险厌恶。研究进一步发现,通过降低风险政策改变农业部门的个人构成会增加对此类政策的需求。这些结果追溯了政策对降低风险的影响,从关于农场进入、扩张和退出的个人决策到对部门结构的更广泛影响。对于科学家来说,这突出了将行业层面的风险厌恶作为研究问题的一部分来考虑的必要性,而不仅仅是固定人群的外生方面。对于政策制定者来说,研究结果表明,农场规划设计可能会影响到谁去耕种,并导致平均风险承受能力降低,从而可能增加对进一步公共支持的风险管理工具的需求。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Agricultural Land Titling on Poverty Reduction in China 中国农地产权制度对减贫的影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70013
Haiyuan Wan, Weidong He, Kejun Xin, Yangyang Shen, Yangcheng Yu

Using administrative data on low-income populations, this study provides quasi-experimental evidence on the impact of agricultural land titling on poverty reduction in rural China. We show that the staggered rollout of the programme at the town level significantly reduces household poverty incidence by enhancing labour incentives, facilitating the reallocation of labour to non-agricultural sectors and increasing labour market participation among people with disabilities. We provide a simple theoretical framework with empirically testable predictions to interpret our results. Further analysis reveals that agricultural land titling promotes land reallocation and supports income growth through different channels for agricultural and non-agricultural households. Additional evidence suggests that the programme mitigates vulnerability and reduces the risk of long-term poverty. These findings illustrate how institutional reforms in property rights empower labour incentives among vulnerable groups, providing valuable insights for other developing countries aiming to achieve sustainable and inclusive poverty reduction.

本研究利用低收入人口的行政数据,为中国农村农业土地所有权对减贫的影响提供了准实验证据。我们的研究表明,在城镇层面错开地推出该计划,通过加强劳动力激励、促进劳动力向非农业部门的重新分配和提高残疾人的劳动力市场参与度,显著降低了家庭贫困发生率。我们提供了一个简单的理论框架与经验可检验的预测来解释我们的结果。进一步的分析表明,农业土地所有权促进了土地再配置,并通过不同渠道支持农业和非农业家庭的收入增长。其他证据表明,该方案减轻了脆弱性,降低了长期贫困的风险。这些发现说明了产权制度改革如何增强弱势群体的劳动激励,为其他旨在实现可持续和包容性减贫的发展中国家提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Treatment Effect Heterogeneity of Farmers Participating in Cooperatives 农民参与合作社的待遇效果异质性
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70009
Drini Imami, Orjon Xhoxhi, Davit Babayan, Thomas Herzfeld, Rustam Rakhmetov

Despite the many studies providing evidence of the benefits of cooperatives, most small farms and farm households, particularly in transition economies, do not participate in them. This study analyses the effect of cooperative activity on farm performance using a large-scale farm survey conducted in Armenia. In addition, it addresses the issue of heterogeneity, which is often overlooked in the literature. It looks at heterogeneity in terms of observed effect modifiers, which are measured covariates that can modify the causal effect of cooperation on a specific farm performance indicator. This is the first study that pays special attention to heterogeneity and uses the causal forest approach in the context of cooperative membership to characterise the drivers of treatment heterogeneity (i.e., variation in the causal impact of cooperative membership across farmers with different observable characteristics). Participation in cooperatives is associated with greater perceived farm performance among farmers with limited access to market information and low financial literacy. Similarly, higher benefits are observed for less experienced and older farmers, suggesting that cooperatives play a particularly important role in supporting more vulnerable subgroups.

尽管许多研究提供了合作社的好处的证据,但大多数小农场和农户,特别是在转型经济中,没有参加合作社。本研究通过在亚美尼亚进行的大规模农场调查,分析了合作社活动对农场绩效的影响。此外,它解决了异质性的问题,这在文献中经常被忽视。它从观察到的效应修正因子的角度来看待异质性,这是一种可测量的协变量,可以改变合作对特定农场绩效指标的因果效应。这是第一项特别关注异质性的研究,并在合作社成员的背景下使用因果森林方法来描述待遇异质性的驱动因素(即,合作社成员在具有不同可观察特征的农民之间的因果影响的变化)。参与合作社与获得市场信息有限、金融知识水平较低的农民对农场业绩的认知较高有关。同样,经验不足和年龄较大的农民获得了更高的收益,这表明合作社在支持更脆弱的次群体方面发挥了特别重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Private or Public? Farmer Preferences and Identities in Agri-Environmental Contract Implementation 私人还是公共?农业环境契约实施中的农民偏好与认同
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70011
Christoph Schulze, Klaus Glenk, Julian Sagebiel, Bettina Matzdorf

This study investigates farmer preferences for publicly and privately financed agri-environmental contracts. Using a labelled Discrete Choice Experiment with 366 German grassland farmers, we examine trade-offs between payment schemes (public/private), payment criteria (practice-based/result-based), collaboration options, and advisory services. Our results show that farmers require higher compensation for privately financed contracts compared to public ones. On average, respondents prefer practice-based over result-based payments and value free advisory services, particularly in private schemes. Preferences for collaborative implementation indicate a strong desire for autonomy. A key contribution of this study lies in integrating farmer identity into the analysis. Drawing on a psychometric scale of ‘good farmer’ attributes, we identify three latent identities—productivist, environmentalist and civic-minded—and show that these significantly explain heterogeneity in preferences and land enrolment decisions. Productivist farmers demand higher compensation and commit less land, while environmentalist and civic-minded farmers are more inclined to participate and enrol larger areas, even at lower compensation levels. These findings highlight the importance of tailoring agri-environmental contracts to farmers' identities through for example framing of agri-environmental contracts accordingly. Privately financed schemes, such as those based on crowdfunding platforms, must address perceived risks, offer advisory support and develop communication strategies that resonate with different identity profiles. Recognising farmer identity as a behavioural driver can enhance participation in both public and private agri-environmental schemes and inform more effective contract design.

本研究调查了农民对公共和私人资助的农业-环境合同的偏好。通过对366名德国草原农民进行标记离散选择实验,我们研究了支付方案(公共/私人)、支付标准(基于实践/基于结果)、合作选项和咨询服务之间的权衡。我们的研究结果表明,与公共合同相比,农民对私人融资合同的补偿要求更高。平均而言,受访者更喜欢基于实践而不是基于结果的支付和价值免费的咨询服务,特别是在私人计划中。对协作实现的偏好表明了对自主性的强烈渴望。本研究的一个关键贡献在于将农民身份纳入分析。利用“好农民”属性的心理测量量表,我们确定了三种潜在的身份——生产主义者、环保主义者和公民意识——并表明这些显著地解释了偏好和土地登记决策的异质性。生产主义的农民要求更高的补偿,并承诺更少的土地,而环保主义者和公民意识的农民更倾向于参与和登记更大的区域,即使在较低的补偿水平。这些发现强调了根据农民的身份定制农业-环境合同的重要性,例如通过相应的农业-环境合同框架。私人融资计划,如基于众筹平台的计划,必须解决感知到的风险,提供咨询支持,并制定与不同身份群体产生共鸣的沟通策略。认识到农民身份是一种行为驱动因素,可以提高公众和私人农业环境计划的参与度,并为更有效的合同设计提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Consumer Preferences for Gene-Edited Foods: A Review of the Literature and Discussion of Industry and Policy Implications 消费者对基因编辑食品的偏好:文献综述以及对行业和政策影响的讨论
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70008
Jia Han, Daniele Asioli, Giacomo Zanello, Vincenzina Caputo

Gene editing (GE), a revolutionary genetic engineering technology that makes targeted modifications to plant and animal genomes, offers the potential to address key challenges in food security, nutrition, safety, health, agricultural productivity, and sustainability, yet consumer demand for GE foods remains uncertain and complex. This study reviews (1) the factors affecting consumer preferences for GE foods and (2) studies on consumer acceptance of GE foods that feature comparisons to genetically modified (GM) foods. The present manuscript also discusses implications for industry and policymakers and identifies areas where additional research would further promote the acceptance of GE technology. A total of 74 consumer studies were identified, reviewed, and discussed. The results indicate that many factors drive consumer preferences for GE foods, mainly sensory attributes, nutritional content, price, risk perception, trust in institutions, consumer socio-demographics, and available knowledge and information about GE technology. Furthermore, we found that consumers generally prefer GE foods over GM foods, but this preference varies depending on specific products and contexts. These findings provide useful insights for science, industry, and policymakers aiming to develop, commercialise, and regulate GE foods. Finally, several future research avenues are outlined and discussed.

基因编辑(GE)是一项革命性的基因工程技术,可以对植物和动物基因组进行有针对性的修改,为解决粮食安全、营养、安全、健康、农业生产力和可持续性方面的关键挑战提供了潜力,但消费者对转基因食品的需求仍然不确定和复杂。本研究综述了(1)影响消费者对转基因食品偏好的因素和(2)消费者对转基因食品接受程度的研究,其中包括与转基因食品的比较。本手稿还讨论了对行业和政策制定者的影响,并确定了进一步研究将进一步促进通用电气技术接受的领域。总共有74项消费者研究被确定、审查和讨论。结果表明,许多因素推动了消费者对转基因食品的偏好,主要是感官属性、营养成分、价格、风险感知、对机构的信任、消费者社会人口统计学以及对转基因技术的可用知识和信息。此外,我们发现消费者通常更喜欢转基因食品而不是转基因食品,但这种偏好因具体产品和环境而异。这些发现为旨在开发、商业化和管理转基因食品的科学、工业和决策者提供了有用的见解。最后,对未来的研究方向进行了展望和讨论。
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引用次数: 0
The European Union-Mercosur Association Agreement: Implications for the EU Livestock Sector 欧盟-南方共同市场联盟协议:对欧盟畜牧业的影响
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70010
Alexandre Gohin, Alan Matthews

Following 25 years of negotiations, the Mercosur countries and the European Commission reached a political agreement on a comprehensive association agreement in December 2024. However, its ratification is currently uncertain due to concerns of some European member states, among other issues, around possible negative impacts on their farm/livestock sectors. The main objective of this paper is to quantify these likely impacts. Our methodology elaborates on the general equilibrium framework used in previous sustainable impact assessments, where potential or illustrative agreements were analysed. We simulate both a full liberalisation scenario as well as a scenario simulating the more limited market-opening offers in sensitive sectors, notably tariff rate quotas in agriculture. This allows us to identify the protective impact of these more limited offers. We also provide results for the main European member states and conduct several robustness analyses. We find that, because the beef offer is limited to additional import quotas, the negative impacts on livestock income are heavily muted. We also find that the European livestock sector, and more generally the farm and food industries, benefit from the income growth induced by the other components of the agreement. Finally, we do not find stronger negative effects in countries currently opposed to ratification, in particular France, because their consumers prefer domestic foods.

经过25年的谈判,南方共同市场国家和欧盟委员会于2024年12月就全面联系国协议达成政治协议。然而,由于一些欧洲成员国担心对其农场/畜牧业可能产生的负面影响,该条约的批准目前尚不确定。本文的主要目的是量化这些可能的影响。我们的方法详细阐述了以前可持续影响评估中使用的一般均衡框架,其中分析了潜在的或说明性的协议。我们既模拟了完全自由化的情景,也模拟了敏感行业(特别是农业的关税配额)更有限的市场开放提议的情景。这使我们能够确定这些更有限的优惠的保护性影响。我们还提供了欧洲主要成员国的结果,并进行了几次稳健性分析。我们发现,由于牛肉供应仅限于额外的进口配额,因此对牲畜收入的负面影响非常小。我们还发现,欧洲畜牧业,以及更普遍的农业和食品行业,受益于该协议其他组成部分带来的收入增长。最后,在目前反对批准的国家,特别是法国,我们没有发现更大的负面影响,因为它们的消费者更喜欢国内食品。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 and Farm Management in India: Evidence From the Rural–Urban Interface of Bangalore 2019冠状病毒病与印度农场管理:来自班加罗尔城乡结合部的证据
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70007
Verena Preusse, Meike Wollni

We examine farm management decisions of smallholder farmers during the first wave of COVID-19 infections in India between June 2020 and March 2021. We use panel data from 256 farm households in the rural–urban interface of Bangalore from a pre-COVID-19 face-to-face survey and a phone survey at the end of the first COVID-19 wave. We combine this survey data with sub-district and village level data on the number of COVID-19 infections as well as rainfall data. Results of fixed effects panel data models show that higher COVID-19 exposure, measured by numbers of sub-district and village level COVID-19 infections, positively affects the number of sustainable agricultural practices adopted. Conversely, higher COVID-19 exposure is related to a reduction in the share of crops treated with external inputs such as fertilisers and pesticides. The results suggest that disruptions related to COVID-19 exposure levels restricted farmers' access to agricultural inputs, prompting a shift towards sustainable agricultural practices.

我们研究了2020年6月至2021年3月印度第一波COVID - 19感染期间小农的农场管理决策。我们使用了来自班加罗尔农村-城市界面256个农户的面板数据,这些数据来自COVID - 19前的面对面调查和第一波COVID - 19浪潮结束时的电话调查。我们将该调查数据与分区和村级的COVID - 19感染人数数据以及降雨量数据结合起来。固定效应面板数据模型的结果表明,以分区和村级COVID - 19感染数量衡量的COVID - 19暴露程度越高,对采用可持续农业做法的数量产生积极影响。相反,更高的COVID - 19暴露率与使用化肥和农药等外部投入物处理的作物比例减少有关。结果表明,与COVID - 19暴露水平相关的破坏限制了农民获得农业投入物的机会,促使他们转向可持续的农业实践。
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引用次数: 0
Presidential Address: Obsessions With Farm Performance: A Cinderella Data Story? 总统演讲:对农场业绩的痴迷:灰姑娘的数据故事?
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70005
Paul Wilson

Agricultural policies have long sought to address the low farm income problem. Investment in farm-level data collection to analyse these policies has generated extensive datasets that have substantially facilitated the estimation and understanding of farm-level performance. These high-quality datasets are underpinned by first-principles methodological developments and implemented by Research or Investigation Officers (RIO). A Scopus research output search (2000–2024) shows the importance of income, sustainability, performance, efficiency and productivity as research topics drawing on farm-level datasets. We now require farm-level data collection and analysis to extend in scope if we are to achieve Net Zero targets. Current global sustainability legislation is based upon production or territorial emissions only, which may incentivise carbon-inefficient production. To overcome this issue, one approach is the implementation of Agricultural Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (Ag-CBAM) within international trading rules. These would require robust farm-level Greenhouse Gas (GHG) data reporting that has proved complex and thus far lack national and international definitional agreement. Collecting farm-level Key Practice Indicator (KPRI) data, as included in the EU's Farm Sustainability Data Network (FSDN), can demonstrate economic-environmental win-wins and farmer-to-farmer communication opportunities to reduce agricultural GHG impacts. Central to these new data are the RIOs who engage with farmers to make data provision possible. Farm-level performance analysis will remain central to our understanding of farming and food systems. We should give greater recognition to our colleagues who collect, collate and synthesise farm-level data.

长期以来,农业政策一直试图解决农业收入低的问题。为分析这些政策而对农场级数据收集的投资产生了广泛的数据集,极大地促进了对农场级绩效的估计和理解。这些高质量的数据集以第一原则方法发展为基础,并由研究或调查人员(里约热内卢)实施。Scopus研究产出搜索(2000-2024)显示了收入、可持续性、绩效、效率和生产力作为研究主题的重要性,这些研究主题利用农场级数据集。如果要实现净零目标,我们现在需要扩大农场层面的数据收集和分析范围。目前的全球可持续性立法仅基于生产或地域排放,这可能会鼓励低碳生产。为了解决这一问题,一种方法是在国际贸易规则中实施农业碳边界调整机制(Ag - CBAM)。这将需要强有力的农场层面温室气体(GHG)数据报告,而事实证明,这些数据报告是复杂的,迄今为止缺乏国家和国际上的定义协议。收集农场层面的关键实践指标(KPRI)数据,包括在欧盟农场可持续性数据网络(FSDN)中,可以展示经济-环境的双赢和农民之间的沟通机会,以减少农业温室气体的影响。这些新数据的核心是与农民接触以使数据提供成为可能的rio。农场层面的绩效分析仍然是我们理解农业和粮食系统的核心。我们应该对收集、整理和综合农场数据的同事给予更多的认可。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Impact of China's Broadband Village Pilot Project on the Consumption Patterns of Rural Households 中国宽带村试点项目对农户消费模式的影响评估
IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70006
Dan Liu, Jia You, Michael Vardanyan, Zhiyang Shen

Given that rural areas are home to approximately half of China's population, it is essential to assess the economic impact of the country's substantial investment in broadband infrastructure in these regions. We use the ‘Broadband Village’ pilot project launched in western China in 2014 as an exogenous shock to estimate the link between better high-speed internet infrastructure and rural consumption. We rely on data on rural households from the China Household Finance Survey and a difference-in-differences model to assess the impact of the Broadband Village initiative on household consumption patterns. Our results suggest that the program's launch has led to higher spending on both basic needs and non-essential items, helping to boost rural consumption and indirectly promote economic growth in China's western regions. We also find that the pilot's role in stimulating consumption is moderated by the degree of attention to information, and that it has disproportionately benefited younger consumers and households with significant liquidity constraints. Our analysis underscores the importance of encouraging further development of internet-based sales models and considering the broader socio-economic context when designing policies to promote growth by stimulating consumption.

鉴于中国约一半的人口居住在农村地区,有必要评估中国在这些地区大量投资宽带基础设施的经济影响。我们使用2014年在中国西部启动的“宽带村”试点项目作为外生冲击来估计更好的高速互联网基础设施与农村消费之间的联系。我们依靠《中国家庭金融调查》中的农村家庭数据和一个差中差模型来评估宽带村倡议对家庭消费模式的影响。我们的研究结果表明,该计划的推出提高了基本需求和非必需品的支出,有助于促进农村消费,并间接促进中国西部地区的经济增长。我们还发现,试点在刺激消费方面的作用受到对信息的关注程度的调节,并且它不成比例地使年轻消费者和流动性严重受限的家庭受益。我们的分析强调了鼓励进一步发展基于互联网的销售模式的重要性,并在设计通过刺激消费促进增长的政策时考虑更广泛的社会经济背景。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Agricultural Economics
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