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Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History最新文献

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Wealth and demography in Ottoman probate inventories: A database in very long-term perspective 财富和人口在奥斯曼遗嘱清单:一个数据库在非常长期的观点
Pub Date : 2021-01-19 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2020.1840469
Hülya Canbakal, A. Filiztekin
Abstract This article uses a novel database of Ottoman probates and examines some of the methodological difficulties that arise in very long-term analysis. Wealth statistics, spanning from 1460 to 1920 in the longest subsample, indicate approximately an inverted U-shaped pattern that may signal the limits of extensive growth. While plausible, severity of the drop on the right side of the wealth curve does not entirely match recent scholarship on the Ottoman Empire. Examining the effect of biases and changes in probate demography on wealth, we explore how real the observed wealth pattern is. We employ descriptive statistics, linear regression and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, and find that demographic composition matters but does not alter the shape of the wealth curve. Explanation for the gap between probate findings and current historiography, therefore, must lie elsewhere.
摘要本文使用了一个新颖的奥斯曼遗嘱数据库,并研究了一些在长期分析中出现的方法上的困难。在最长的子样本中,从1460年到1920年的财富统计数据显示出大约一个倒u型的模式,这可能标志着粗放型增长的极限。尽管这种说法似乎有理,但财富曲线右侧下降的严重程度与最近有关奥斯曼帝国的学术研究并不完全相符。通过研究遗嘱人口统计的偏差和变化对财富的影响,我们探索了观察到的财富模式的真实性。我们采用描述性统计、线性回归和瓦哈卡-布林德分解,发现人口构成有影响,但不会改变财富曲线的形状。因此,对遗嘱鉴定结果与当前史学之间差距的解释必须在其他地方。
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引用次数: 5
What is a product anyway? Applying the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) to historical data 什么是产品?将标准国际贸易分类(SITC)应用于历史数据
Pub Date : 2021-01-10 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2020.1853644
Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, Christoph Altmeppen
Abstract We study the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Thousands of studies rely on disaggregated trade data, but the quality of these studies’ unit of analysis—bins of goods categories arranged in certain hierarchies—is rarely studied. It is often unclear what a product or a variety really is. Meanwhile, increasingly granular trade data from before the 1950s are lifted from the archives that require standardization. The SITC provides a framework for that. We make four contributions: First, we work out the specificities of each SITC revision, analyze how revisions are related, and provide improved correspondence tables between all revisions. We show that revision choice can affect the analysis of historical trade data. Second, we propose basic rules for translating historical, unstandardized trade statistics to the SITC. Third, we translate German product-level trade data from the first globalization to both SITC revisions 2 and 4 in order to find out which revision may be more applicable to historical data. Fourth, we then develop metrics to quantitatively assess our translation exercise. We argue that despite inevitable imperfections, applying the SITC yields useful results, even on a very disaggregated level.
摘要对国际贸易标准分类(SITC)进行了研究。成千上万的研究依赖于分类的贸易数据,但这些研究的分析单位——按一定等级排列的商品类别——的质量却很少得到研究。人们往往不清楚一种产品或品种到底是什么。与此同时,20世纪50年代以前日益细化的贸易数据被从需要标准化的档案中提取出来。SITC为此提供了一个框架。我们做出了四个贡献:首先,我们找出了每个SITC修订的特殊性,分析了修订之间的关系,并提供了所有修订之间改进的对应表。我们发现修正选择会影响历史贸易数据的分析。其次,我们提出了将历史的、未标准化的贸易统计数据翻译给SITC的基本规则。第三,我们将德国第一次全球化的产品级贸易数据翻译为SITC版本2和版本4,以找出哪个版本可能更适用于历史数据。第四,我们会制定指标来定量评估我们的翻译工作。我们认为,尽管存在不可避免的缺陷,但应用SITC会产生有用的结果,即使是在非常分散的水平上。
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引用次数: 3
The antebellum roots of distinctively black names 内战前黑人名字的词根
Pub Date : 2020-11-01 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2021.1893877
L. Cook, John M. Parman, Trevon Logan
Abstract This paper explores the existence of distinctively Black names in the antebellum era. Building on recent research that documents the existence of a national naming pattern for African American males in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries (Cook, Logan, and Parman, Explorations in Economic History 53:64–82, 2014), we analyze three distinct and novel antebellum data sources and uncover three stylized facts. First, the Black names identified by Cook, Logan and Parman using post-Civil War data are common names among Blacks before Emancipation. Second, these same Black names are racially distinctive in the antebellum period. Third, the racial distinctiveness of the names increases from the early 1800s to the time of the Civil War. Taken together, these facts provide support for the claim that Black naming patterns existed in the antebellum era and that racial distinctiveness in naming patterns was an established practice well before Emancipation. These findings further challenge the view that Black names are a product of twentieth century phenomena such as the Civil Rights Movement.
摘要:本文探讨了南北战争前黑人名字的存在。最近的研究记录了19世纪末和20世纪初非洲裔美国男性的国家命名模式的存在(Cook, Logan, and Parman, Explorations in Economic History 53:64-82, 2014),我们分析了三个不同的、新颖的战前数据来源,并揭示了三个风格化的事实。首先,库克、洛根和帕尔曼利用内战后的数据确定的黑人名字是解放前黑人的常见名字。其次,这些黑人的名字在南北战争前具有种族特色。第三,从19世纪初到南北战争时期,这些名字的种族特征有所增加。综上所述,这些事实为以下说法提供了支持:黑人命名模式在南北战争前就存在,而命名模式中的种族差异早在解放奴隶之前就已确立。这些发现进一步挑战了黑人名字是20世纪民权运动等现象的产物的观点。
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引用次数: 6
The reuse of texts in Finnish newspapers and journals, 1771–1920: A digital humanities perspective 芬兰报纸和期刊文本的再利用,1771-1920:数字人文的视角
Pub Date : 2020-10-29 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2020.1803166
Hannu Salmi, Petri Paju, H. Rantala, Asko Nivala, Aleksi Vesanto, Filip Ginter
Abstract The digital collections of newspapers have given rise to a growing interest in studying them with computational methods. This article contributes to this discussion by presenting a method for detecting text reuse in a large corpus of digitized texts. Empirically, the article is based on the corpus of newspapers and journals from the collection of the National Library of Finland. Often, digitized repositories offer only partial views of what actually was published in printed form. The Finnish collection is unique, however, since it covers all published issues up to the year 1920. This article has a two-fold objective: methodologically, it explores how computational methods can be developed so that text reuse can be effectively identified; empirically, the article concentrates on how the circulation of texts developed in Finland from the late eighteenth century to the early twentieth century and what this reveals about the transformation of public discourse in Finland. According to our results, the reuse of texts was an integral part of the press throughout the studied period, which, on the other hand, was part of a wider transnational practice.
摘要:报纸的数字馆藏引起了人们对用计算方法研究它们的兴趣。本文通过提出一种在大型数字化文本语料库中检测文本重用的方法来促进这一讨论。在实证上,本文是基于芬兰国家图书馆的报纸和期刊的集合语料库。通常,数字化存储库只提供印刷形式实际出版内容的部分视图。然而,芬兰的收藏是独一无二的,因为它涵盖了1920年之前出版的所有问题。本文有两个目的:在方法上,它探索如何开发计算方法,以便有效地识别文本重用;从实证的角度来看,本文主要关注芬兰从18世纪末到20世纪初的文本流通是如何发展的,以及这揭示了芬兰公共话语的转变。根据我们的结果,在整个研究期间,文本的重复使用是新闻界的一个组成部分,另一方面,这是更广泛的跨国实践的一部分。
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引用次数: 14
Wealth inequality and economic mobility in the post-revolutionary Pennsylvania backcountry 革命后宾夕法尼亚边远地区的财富不平等和经济流动性
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2019.1698384
David A. Latzko
Abstract Township tax lists for 1783 and 1793 are used to examine the distribution of wealth and economic mobility in York County, Pennsylvania following the Revolutionary War. Measures of inequality are inconclusive, but the typical York County household was worse off in 1793 than in 1783: median wealth fell 5 percent. The poorest households recorded an increase in assessed wealth. Over 40 percent of households disappeared from the tax lists, with the least wealthy being the most likely to leave. Households that remained in the county were far more likely to see an improvement in their relative status than a decline.
摘要:本文利用1783年和1793年的乡镇税表来考察独立战争后宾夕法尼亚州约克县的财富分配和经济流动性。衡量不平等的标准尚无定论,但典型的约克县家庭在1793年的情况比1783年更糟:财富中位数下降了5%。最贫困家庭的财富评估有所增加。超过40%的家庭从征税名单上消失,最不富裕的家庭最有可能离开。留在该县的家庭更有可能看到他们的相对地位得到改善,而不是下降。
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引用次数: 1
Exploring the dynamic changes of key concepts of the Hungarian socialist era with natural language processing methods 用自然语言处理方法探索匈牙利社会主义时代关键概念的动态变化
Pub Date : 2020-09-23 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2020.1823289
Martina Katalin Szabó, Orsolya Ring, B. Nagy, L. Kiss, Júlia Koltai, Gábor Berend, László Vidács, László Vidács, A. Gulyás, Zoltán Kmetty
Abstract The analysis of social discourses from the perspective of historical changes deserves special attention. Such a study could play a key role in revealing social changes and latent narrative of those in power; and understanding the underlying social dynamic in a given period. Until the recent years, such issues were analyzed mainly in a qualitative approach. In our paper we present a new way of revealing/discovering and interpreting social discourses using an advanced NLP method called word embedding. Based on word similarities we can understand the main structural frames of a given system and using a dynamic approach we can reveal the social changes in a historical period. In our study we created a large corpus from the Hungarian “Pártélet” journal (1956–89). This was the official journal of the governing party, hence it represents not just a media discourse of the era, but the official discourse of the government, too. One of the main focal points of our research is to study the evolution of the semantic content of some of the concepts related to the topics of agriculture and industry, which are two central notions of the examined era.
从历史变迁的角度分析社会话语值得特别关注。这样的研究可以在揭示社会变迁和当权者的潜在叙事方面发挥关键作用;了解特定时期潜在的社会动态。直到最近几年,这些问题主要是用定性的方法分析的。在我们的论文中,我们提出了一种新的方式来揭示/发现和解释社会话语,使用一种称为词嵌入的高级NLP方法。基于词的相似度,我们可以理解一个给定系统的主要结构框架,用动态的方法可以揭示一个历史时期的社会变迁。在我们的研究中,我们从匈牙利“Pártélet”期刊(1956-89)中创建了一个大型语料库。这是执政党的官方刊物,因此它不仅代表了时代的媒体话语,也代表了政府的官方话语。我们研究的主要焦点之一是研究与农业和工业主题相关的一些概念的语义内容的演变,这是所研究时代的两个中心概念。
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引用次数: 4
Digital begriffsgeschichte: Tracing semantic change using word embeddings 数字begffsgeschichte:使用词嵌入跟踪语义变化
Pub Date : 2020-05-13 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2020.1760157
M. Wevers, M. Koolen
Abstract Recently, the use of word embedding models (WEM) has received ample attention in the natural language processing community. These models can capture semantic information in large corpora of text by learning distributional properties of words, that is how often particular words appear in specific contexts. Scholars have pointed out the potential of WEMs for historical research. In particular, their ability to capture semantic change might assist historians studying conceptual change or specific discursive formations over time. Concurrently, others voiced their criticism and pointed out that WEMs require large amounts of training data, that they are challenging to evaluate, and they lack the specificity looked for by historians. The ability to examine semantic change resonates with the goals of historians such as Reinhart Koselleck, whose research focused on the formation of concepts and the transformation of semantic fields. However, word embeddings can only be used to study particular types of semantic change, and the model’s use is dependent on the size, quality, and bias in training data. In this article, we examine what is required of historical data to produce reliable WEMs, and we describe the types of questions that can be answered using WEMs.
近年来,词嵌入模型(WEM)的应用在自然语言处理领域受到了广泛关注。这些模型可以通过学习单词的分布属性(即特定单词在特定上下文中出现的频率)来捕获大型文本语料库中的语义信息。学者们指出了微信在历史研究方面的潜力。特别是,它们捕捉语义变化的能力可能有助于历史学家研究概念变化或特定的话语形式。与此同时,也有人提出了批评,指出wem需要大量的训练数据,很难评估,而且缺乏历史学家所追求的特异性。研究语义变化的能力与莱因哈特·科塞莱克(Reinhart Koselleck)等历史学家的目标产生了共鸣,他的研究重点是概念的形成和语义场的转换。然而,词嵌入只能用于研究特定类型的语义变化,模型的使用取决于训练数据的大小、质量和偏差。在本文中,我们将研究生成可靠wem所需的历史数据,并描述可以使用wem回答的问题类型。
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引用次数: 15
Retracing Rivers and drawing swamps: Using a drawing tablet to reconstruct an historical hydroscape from army corps survey maps 追溯河流和绘制沼泽:用绘图板重建陆军兵团测绘地图上的历史水景
Pub Date : 2020-05-06 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2020.1748151
J. Baeten, R. Lave
Abstract This article presents a novel geospatial approach to reconstructing and analyzing environmental change over extensive spatial and temporal scales, even in systems such as rivers and streams that are comparatively difficult to digitize. We used a drawing tablet and stylus to digitize features found on historical Army Corps maps across the spatially extensive landscape of the Lower Wabash River’s riparian zone, in Indiana and Illinois, USA. The methodology allows for an efficient reconstruction of sinuous and irregular environmental features, such as sloughs, and demonstrates the utility of digitizing historical maps to understand the evolution of surface water quantity and location across a landscape. We then compared these historical data to contemporary environmental datasets for the same study area to understand what changes have occurred over a 100 year period. This reveals that the hydroscape of the Lower Wabash River has been significantly altered by past human activity, notably through the reduction of swamps, wetlands, and sandbars, and the increase in drainage ditches and overall stream area. Notably, many of these historical alterations are not captured within current environmental datasets.
本文提出了一种新的地理空间方法,用于在广泛的时空尺度上重建和分析环境变化,甚至在河流和溪流等相对难以数字化的系统中。我们使用绘图板和手写笔对美国印第安纳州和伊利诺伊州沃巴什河下游河岸地带的历史陆军地图上的特征进行了数字化处理。该方法可以有效地重建蜿蜒和不规则的环境特征,如沼泽,并展示了数字化历史地图的实用性,以了解地表水的数量和位置在景观中的演变。然后,我们将这些历史数据与同一研究区域的当代环境数据集进行比较,以了解100年来发生了什么变化。这表明,由于过去的人类活动,下沃巴什河的水景发生了显著的变化,特别是沼泽、湿地和沙洲的减少,排水沟和总体河流面积的增加。值得注意的是,许多这些历史变化并没有在当前的环境数据集中被捕获。
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引用次数: 2
Seasonal components of infant mortality at the onset of the transition reveal the role of water-borne and air-borne diseases: the case of the Don Army Territory (Southern Russia), 1872–1915 在过渡开始时,婴儿死亡率的季节性组成部分揭示了水传播和空气传播疾病的作用:1872-1915年顿河陆军地区(俄罗斯南部)的情况
Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2020.1754984
N. Bonneuil, E. Fursa
Abstract Seasonal components of infant probabilities of dying are disentangled from monthly death statistics by age and birth by articulating demographic equations and stochastic optimization. In the Don Army Territory, for the period 1872–1915, these components reflect respiratory diseases in autumn and spring, dehydration and waterborne diseases in summer, and cold stress in winter. During the warmer months, they were lower in cities. Summer heat had a lethal effect, mitigated by precipitation; illegitimate infants were exposed to the change of season; high winds increased mortality in late winter for 0–5 month infants and in summer for 6–11 month infants in cities. By the turn of the century, mortality had decreased, thanks to the gradual purification of water supplies and improved health practices.
摘要:通过人口统计学方程和随机优化,从按年龄和出生的月死亡统计数据中分离出婴儿死亡概率的季节性成分。在顿河陆军领土,1872-1915年期间,这些组成部分反映了秋季和春季的呼吸道疾病,夏季的脱水和水传播疾病,冬季的寒冷应激。在温暖的月份里,城市的温度较低。夏季的炎热有致命的影响,降水减轻了这种影响;私生子暴露在季节的变化中;在城市,大风增加了冬末0-5个月婴儿和夏季6-11个月婴儿的死亡率。到世纪之交,由于水供应的逐渐净化和保健做法的改善,死亡率已经下降。
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引用次数: 1
Revisiting Mexican migration in the Age of Mass Migration: New evidence from individual border crossings 重新审视大规模移民时代的墨西哥移民:来自个人越境的新证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-21 DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2020.1752344
David Escamilla-Guerrero
Abstract I introduce and analyze the Mexican Border Crossing Records (MBCRs), an unexplored data source that records aliens crossing the Mexico-US land border at diverse locations from 1903 to 1955. The MBCRs identify immigrants and report rich demographic, geographic and socioeconomic information at the individual level. These micro data have the potential to support cliometric research, which is scarce for the Mexico-US migration, especially for the beginnings of the flow (1884-1910). My analysis of the MBCRs suggests that previous literature may have inaccurately described the origin of the first Mexican immigrants. My findings diverge from historical scholarship because the micro data capture the geographic composition of the flow at the local level and across nine entrance ports, allowing me to characterize with precision the migration patterns during the 1900s. Overall, the micro data reported in the MBCRs offer the opportunity to address topics that concern the economics of migration in the past and present.
摘要本文介绍并分析了墨西哥边境记录(MBCRs),这是一个未开发的数据源,记录了1903年至1955年在不同地点穿越美墨陆地边界的外星人。mbcr识别移民,并在个人层面上报告丰富的人口、地理和社会经济信息。这些微观数据有可能支持气候计量学研究,这对于墨西哥-美国移民来说是稀缺的,特别是对于流动的开始(1884-1910)。我对mbcr的分析表明,以前的文献可能不准确地描述了第一批墨西哥移民的起源。我的研究结果与历史学者的研究结果不同,因为微观数据捕捉了地方层面和九个入口港口的人口流动的地理组成,使我能够精确地描述20世纪初的人口迁移模式。总体而言,mbcr中报告的微观数据为解决过去和现在有关移民经济学的主题提供了机会。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History
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