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On the profitability of influential carry-trade strategies: Data-snooping bias and post-publication performance 有影响力的套息交易策略的盈利能力:数据窥探偏差与发表后绩效
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101640
Po-Hsuan Hsu , Mark P. Taylor , Zigan Wang , Yan Li
This study examines whether 13 influential carry-trade strategies retain profitability after being published in the academic literature. We first implement several bootstrap methods to correct for the presence of data snooping and find that the pre-publication profitability of these strategies is not due to selection bias, demonstrating their original capacity to exploit market inefficiencies. On the other hand, their profitability has declined since their publication years. Our empirical evidence suggests that, although academic researchers may sometimes uncover market anomalies, their publication reduces inefficiencies in currency markets.
本研究考察了13种有影响力的套利交易策略在发表学术文献后是否仍能保持盈利能力。我们首先实施了几种bootstrap方法来纠正数据窥探的存在,并发现这些策略的出版前盈利能力不是由于选择偏差,证明了它们利用市场低效率的原始能力。另一方面,自出版以来,它们的盈利能力有所下降。我们的经验证据表明,尽管学术研究人员有时可能会发现市场异常,但他们的发表减少了货币市场的低效率。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-market volatility forecasting with attention-based spatial–temporal graph convolutional networks 基于注意力的时空图卷积网络跨市场波动预测
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101639
Jue Gong, Gang-Jin Wang, Yang Zhou, Chi Xie
We propose a cross-market volatility forecasting framework by applying attention-based spatial–temporal graph convolutional network model (ASTGCN) to forecast future volatility of stock indices in 18 financial markets. In our work, we construct cross-market volatility networks to integrate interrelations among financial markets and the corresponding features of each market. ASTGCN combines the spatial–temporal attention mechanisms with the spatial–temporal convolutions to simultaneously capture the dynamic spatial–temporal characteristics of global volatility data. Compared with competitive models, ASTGCN exhibits superiority in multivariate predictive accuracies under multiple forecasting horizons. Our proposed framework demonstrates outstanding stability through several robustness checks. We also inspect the training process of ASTGCN by extracting spatial attention matrices and find that interrelations among global financial markets perform differently in tranquil and turmoil periods. Our study levitates empirical findings in financial networks to practical application with a novel forecasting method in the deep learning community.
本文运用基于注意力的时空图卷积网络模型(ASTGCN)对18个金融市场股票指数的未来波动率进行预测,提出了一个跨市场波动率预测框架。在我们的工作中,我们构建了跨市场波动网络来整合金融市场之间的相互关系以及每个市场的相应特征。ASTGCN将时空注意机制与时空卷积相结合,同时捕捉全球波动率数据的动态时空特征。与竞争模型相比,ASTGCN在多预测视野下的多元预测精度方面具有优势。我们提出的框架通过几个鲁棒性检查证明了出色的稳定性。我们还通过提取空间注意力矩阵来检验ASTGCN的训练过程,发现全球金融市场之间的相互关系在平静和动荡时期表现不同。我们的研究将金融网络的实证研究结果与深度学习领域的一种新的预测方法结合起来应用于实际。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioral biases, information frictions and interest rate expectations 行为偏差、信息摩擦和利率预期
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101637
George Bulkley , Richard D.F. Harris , Vivekanand Nawosah
We use expectations of the short rate inferred from the term structure of interest rates to test several well-known models of behavioral biases and information frictions. We classify signals about future short rates by their cost of acquisition and find evidence of overreaction to high-cost signals and underreaction to low-cost signals, providing support for the overconfidence bias. We show that our results are unlikely to be driven by time-varying risk premia. The biases are so large that the market’s forecast errors are larger at all horizons than for forecasts obtained by assuming that the short rate follows a random walk.
我们使用从利率期限结构推断的短期利率预期来测试几个著名的行为偏差和信息摩擦模型。我们根据获取成本对有关未来短期利率的信号进行分类,并找到对高成本信号反应过度和对低成本信号反应不足的证据,为过度自信偏见提供支持。我们表明,我们的结果不太可能受到时变风险溢价的驱动。偏差如此之大,以至于市场在所有视界上的预测误差都大于假设短期利率遵循随机游走的预测。
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引用次数: 0
Public data openness and trade credit: Evidence from China 公共数据开放与贸易信用:来自中国的证据
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101636
Xiao Li, Yuan Li, Xiaoxu Yu, Chun Yuan
Exploiting the setting of public data openness in China, we demonstrate a significant trade credit provision increase following the data platforms’ introduction. Our mechanism tests confirm that the rise is driven by enhanced suppliers’ willingness and capability. We document that suppliers with more substantial incentives to offer trade credit before establishing the data platforms experience a more pronounced increase in trade credit usage. Additionally, we examine the economic consequences of public data openness, demonstrating that it not only strengthens supply chain financing but also generates spillover benefits. The impact of public data openness on trade credit provision extends to firm sales, productivity, and supply chain efficiency, resulting in significant increases in revenues and total factor productivity, and leading to significant decreases in interest expense ratio and receivable turnover days. Our results reveal that public data openness substantially improves financial conditions and fosters growth throughout the supply chain.
利用中国公共数据开放的设置,我们证明了数据平台引入后贸易信贷提供的显着增加。我们的机制检验证实,价格上涨是由供应商意愿和能力增强所驱动的。我们的研究表明,在建立数据平台之前,有更大动机提供贸易信贷的供应商在贸易信贷使用方面的增长更为明显。此外,我们研究了公共数据开放的经济后果,证明它不仅加强了供应链融资,而且产生了溢出效益。公共数据开放对贸易信贷提供的影响延伸到企业销售额、生产率和供应链效率,导致收入和全要素生产率显著增加,并导致利息费用率和应收账款周转日显著降低。我们的研究结果表明,公共数据开放大大改善了财务状况,促进了整个供应链的增长。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic implications of corporate disclosure via Twitter 通过Twitter进行企业信息披露的战略意义
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101635
Devendra Kale , Vikram Nanda , Anin Rupp
We investigate the information and strategic aspects of corporate tweets. Despite limits on message length, tweets stimulate information acquisition by investors, as indicated by post-tweet downloads from the SEC-EDGAR website. Corporations appear to be effective at leveraging tweets to enhance their information environment. Specifically, tweets are associated with reduction in firms’ earnings surprise and stock return volatility. There is a decrease in negative skewness of stock returns, suggesting a more uniform release of favorable and unfavorable news, especially in high litigation industries. These effects are more evident when the CEO has greater equity incentives and when firms are smaller and less visible.
我们调查了企业推文的信息和战略方面。尽管消息长度有限制,但推文刺激了投资者的信息获取,这一点从SEC-EDGAR网站的推文后下载量可以看出。企业似乎能够有效地利用微博来改善他们的信息环境。具体而言,推文与公司盈利意外和股票回报波动性的降低有关。股票收益负偏度下降,利好和负面消息的发布更加统一,特别是在高诉讼行业。当首席执行官拥有更大的股权激励,以及公司规模较小、知名度较低时,这些影响更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Do investors reach for yield? Evidence from corporate bond mutual fund flows 投资者追求收益吗?来自公司债券共同基金流动的证据
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101625
Jing-Zhi Huang , Peipei Li , Ying Wang , Yuan Wang , Xiangkun Yao , Licheng Zhang
This paper investigates the reaching-for-yield behavior of corporate bond mutual fund investors by analyzing how fund flows respond to changes in interest rates. We find that investment-grade (IG) bond funds experience increased inflows following lower interest rates, while high-yield (HY) bond funds show no significant response. Bond fund investors tend to seek higher yields during periods of lower interest rates by assuming greater interest rate risk through the purchase of longer-maturity IG funds, rather than by taking on additional credit risk. Our findings are robust to potential endogeneity concerns and alternative explanations—including investors’ flight-to-safety behavior, liquidity considerations, and fund managers’ skill—indicating that fund flows are primarily driven by investors’ reaching-for-yield behavior in response to expansionary monetary policy. Overall, this study advances the understanding of monetary policy transmission and its implications for financial stability in the corporate bond market.
本文通过分析资金流对利率变化的响应,对公司债券共同基金投资者的收益率趋近行为进行了研究。我们发现,投资级(IG)债券基金在利率降低后资金流入增加,而高收益(HY)债券基金则没有明显的反应。债券基金投资者倾向于在利率较低的时期寻求更高的收益率,他们通过购买期限较长的债券基金来承担更大的利率风险,而不是承担额外的信用风险。我们的研究结果对潜在的内生性担忧和其他解释(包括投资者的避险行为、流动性考虑和基金经理的技能)是强有力的,表明资金流动主要是由投资者对扩张性货币政策的收益率行为所驱动的。总体而言,本研究促进了对货币政策传导及其对公司债券市场金融稳定影响的理解。
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引用次数: 0
(In)Attention: distracted shareholders and corporate innovation 注意力:分散的股东和企业创新
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101634
Jing Zhao
Following Kempf et al. (2017), this study employs an identification strategy that exploits exogenous shocks to unrelated parts of institutional shareholders’ portfolios to measure “distraction.” I find institutional shareholder “distraction” significantly and positively affects future innovation output and input. This positive effect exhibits considerable cross-sectional and intertemporal heterogeneity. Further, the positive effect is stronger in firms where institutional shareholder monitoring is less important or efficient, or firms subject to greater managerial myopia. These include innovative firms, firms with lower product market competition, weaker managerial power and stronger monitoring, and lower institutional ownership such that any given distraction is more impactful. Consequently, distraction enhances shareholder value through its positive impact on innovation. Taken together, the evidence suggests that managers respond to reduced myopic pressures, induced by exogenous shocks to institutional investors’ portfolios that shift their attention away, by pursuing long-term, risky and value-increasing investments such as innovation. Potential limitations of this study and their implications for future research are also thoroughly discussed.
继Kempf et al.(2017)之后,本研究采用了一种识别策略,利用对机构股东投资组合中不相关部分的外生冲击来衡量“分心”。我发现机构股东的“分心”显著且正向地影响未来的创新产出和投入。这种积极效应表现出相当大的横断面和跨期异质性。此外,在机构股东监督不太重要或效率较低的公司,或管理近视程度较高的公司,积极效应更强。这些企业包括创新型企业、产品市场竞争程度较低的企业、较弱的管理权力和较强的监督、较低的机构所有权,因此任何给定的分散注意力都更有影响力。因此,分散注意力通过其对创新的积极影响来提高股东价值。综上所述,证据表明,管理者通过追求创新等长期、高风险和增值的投资,来应对机构投资者投资组合受到的外源性冲击所导致的短视压力减轻。本研究的潜在局限性及其对未来研究的启示也进行了深入的讨论。
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引用次数: 0
High frequency online inflation and term structure of interest rates: Evidence from China 高频在线通货膨胀与利率期限结构:来自中国的证据
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101626
Tao Zhang , Ke Tang , Taoxiong Liu , Tingfeng Jiang
In the digital era, the information value of online prices, characterized by weak price stickiness and high sensitivity to economic shocks, deserves more attention. This paper integrates the high-frequency online inflation rate into the dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model to explore its relationship with the term structure of interest rates. The empirical results show that the weekly online inflation significantly predicts the yield curve, especially the slope factor, whereas the monthly official inflation cannot predict the yield curve and is instead predicted by the yield curve factors. The mechanism analysis reveals that, due to low price stickiness, online inflation is more sensitive to short-term economic fluctuations and better reflects money market liquidity, thereby having significant predictive power for short-term interest rates and the slope factor. Specifically, online inflation for non-durable goods and on weekdays shows stronger predictive power for the slope factor. The heterogeneity in price stickiness across these categories explains the varying impacts on the yield curve.
在数字时代,网络价格具有价格粘性弱、对经济冲击高度敏感的特点,其信息价值值得更多关注。本文将高频在线通货膨胀率整合到动态Nelson-Siegel (DNS)模型中,探讨其与利率期限结构的关系。实证结果表明,每周在线通货膨胀率显著预测收益率曲线,尤其是斜率因子,而月度官方通货膨胀率不能预测收益率曲线,而是由收益率曲线因子预测。机制分析表明,由于价格粘性较低,在线通货膨胀对短期经济波动更敏感,更能反映货币市场流动性,因此对短期利率和斜率因子具有显著的预测能力。具体而言,非耐用品和工作日的在线通货膨胀对斜率因子显示出更强的预测能力。这些类别之间价格粘性的异质性解释了对收益率曲线的不同影响。
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引用次数: 0
Credit distortions in Japanese momentum 日本势头中的信贷扭曲
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101615
Sharon Y. Ross
Persistent credit distortions have warped equity returns in Japan, where decades of subsidized bank credit to “zombie firms” suppressed momentum premiums. Controlling for zombies revives Japan’s momentum effect: momentum earns significant alpha after adjusting for zombies, and momentum’s expected return and Sharpe ratio triple. The zombie-adjusted factor commands a positive price of risk, becomes unspanned by other factors, and aligns more closely with international patterns. Why? Zombies depend on forbearance from their banks, and zombie losers’ outsized betas to bank returns depress momentum. Analysis of syndicated loan data confirms that firms with forbearance-prone lenders drive Japan’s persistently low momentum returns.
持续的信贷扭曲扭曲了日本的股票回报,在日本,数十年来银行对“僵尸企业”的补贴信贷抑制了动量溢价。控制僵尸恢复了日本的动量效应:在调整僵尸后,动量获得了显著的alpha,动量的预期回报和夏普比率是原来的三倍。僵尸调整后的因素具有正的风险价格,不受其他因素的影响,并且与国际模式更接近。为什么?“僵尸”依赖于银行的宽容,而“僵尸输家”与银行回报的巨大贝塔系数抑制了势头。对银团贷款数据的分析证实,有忍让倾向的贷款机构的公司推动了日本持续低迷的动量回报。
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引用次数: 0
Unlocking efficiency: How capital market liberalization shapes firm productivity 解锁效率:资本市场自由化如何塑造企业生产率
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101624
Lu Jolly Zhou , Nan Deng , Chenchen Li
This study examines the granular impact of capital market liberalization on the real economy, utilizing the distinctive context of the Chinese market as a quasi-natural experimental setting. Our analysis demonstrates that capital market liberalization positively influences firm-level productivity. We further explore the mechanisms and provide empirical evidence that capital market liberalization improves asset pricing efficiency by enhancing informed trading effectiveness and rectifying stock mispricing. It also optimizes corporate governance from four distinct perspectives: mitigating agency costs, augmenting operational profitability, bolstering labor productivity, and enhancing transparency. These factors collectively contribute to improved productivity at the firm level, confirming the granular impact of financial liberalization in the product market.
本研究考察了资本市场自由化对实体经济的微观影响,利用中国市场的独特背景作为准自然实验环境。我们的分析表明,资本市场自由化正影响企业层面的生产率。我们进一步探讨了机制,并提供了实证证据,证明资本市场自由化通过提高知情交易有效性和纠正股票错误定价来提高资产定价效率。它还从四个不同的角度优化公司治理:降低代理成本、提高运营盈利能力、提高劳动生产率和提高透明度。这些因素共同有助于提高企业一级的生产率,证实了金融自由化对产品市场的细微影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Empirical Finance
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