Journal of Empirical Finance最新文献

英文中文

Maxing out short-term reversals in weekly stock returns 使每周股票收益的短期逆转最大化

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101608

Chen Chen , Andrew Cohen , Qiqi Liang , Licheng Sun

Subrahmanyam (1991) presents a model in which increased variance in liquidity trades reduces price efficiency when market makers are risk-averse. Motivated by this theoretical insight, we hypothesize that pent-up demand from lottery-seeking investors amplifies their overreactions to news, leading to larger short-term return reversals. Consistent with this hypothesis, we identify a significant pattern in weekly U.S. stock returns for lottery-like stocks, defined by high recent maximum daily returns (MAX). Specifically, high-MAX stocks that were past 1-week losers (or winners) exhibit notably positive (or negative) returns in the following week. Applying a short-term reversal strategy to high-MAX stocks generates an average weekly return of 1.66%, significantly outperforming the 0.65% return from the same strategy applied to low-MAX stocks. This result remains robust even after controlling for market microstructure biases and survives a series of robustness tests. Interestingly, the MAX-enhanced reversal strategy proves effective only when retail order imbalance is in the highest quintile. This result holds across both value-weighted and equal-weighted portfolios, underscoring the pivotal role of retail investors. Taken together, our findings highlight a new channel through which retail investors’ preference for lottery-like payoffs amplifies their overreactions, enhancing the profitability of short-term reversal strategies.

Subrahmanyam（1991）提出了一个模型，在该模型中，当做市商厌恶风险时，流动性交易的方差增加会降低价格效率。在这一理论见解的推动下，我们假设寻求彩票的投资者被压抑的需求放大了他们对新闻的过度反应，导致更大的短期回报逆转。与这一假设相一致，我们确定了彩票类股票的每周美国股票回报的显著模式，由近期最高日回报（MAX）定义。具体来说，高max股票在过去一周是输家（或赢家），在接下来的一周表现出显著的正（或负）回报。将短期反转策略应用于高max股票的平均周回报率为1.66%，显著优于应用于低max股票的相同策略的0.65%的回报率。即使在控制了市场微观结构偏差之后，这个结果仍然是稳健性的，并且经受住了一系列稳健性测试。有趣的是，max增强逆转策略仅在零售订单失衡处于最高五分位数时证明有效。这一结果适用于价值加权和等加权投资组合，强调了散户投资者的关键作用。综上所述，我们的研究结果突出了一个新的渠道，通过这个渠道，散户投资者对彩票类收益的偏好放大了他们的过度反应，增强了短期逆转策略的盈利能力。

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引用次数: 0

Forecasting financial volatility: An approach based on Parkinson volatility measure with long memory stochastic range model 金融波动预测：基于长记忆随机区间模型的帕金森波动测度方法

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101617

Zhi De Khoo , Kok Haur Ng , You Beng Koh , Kooi Huat Ng

This paper proposes a long memory stochastic range (LMSR) model to investigate the persistence of range-based volatility series. The latent variable in the LMSR model is derived from the established autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process. To estimate the model parameters, there is no closed-form solution for the latent process. Hence, the parameters of the stochastic model are estimated by applying the quasi-maximum likelihood method via the Whittle approximation. A comprehensive simulation study assesses the method’s performance, with results showing that estimated parameters are close to true values and precision improves with longer simulated time series lengths. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we conducted empirical studies based on four financial assets, and their volatilities are estimated directly using the range-based Parkinson (PK) volatility measure. The results show evidence of long memory in these volatility series using the rescaled range and Geweke-Porter-Hudak methods. We fit the resulting PK volatility estimates to the LMSR model and other competing volatility models, and their modelling performances are compared. Results indicate that all LMSR models outperform competitors according to the log-likelihood and Akaike information criterion as well as out-of-sample loss functions. Additionally, the estimated parameters of these LMSR models confirm the presence of long memory, while competing short memory models struggle to capture the persistent nature of volatility in financial markets.

本文提出了一个长记忆随机极差（LMSR）模型来研究基于极差的波动率序列的持久性。LMSR模型的潜变量来源于已建立的自回归分数积分移动平均过程。为了估计模型参数，隐过程没有封闭解。因此，采用拟极大似然方法通过惠特尔近似估计随机模型的参数。综合仿真研究评估了该方法的性能，结果表明估计参数接近真实值，并且随着模拟时间序列长度的增加，精度有所提高。为了证明模型的适用性，我们基于四种金融资产进行了实证研究，并使用基于区间的帕金森（PK）波动率测度直接估计了它们的波动率。使用重新标度的范围和Geweke-Porter-Hudak方法，结果显示这些波动率序列具有长记忆的证据。我们将得到的PK波动率估计拟合到LMSR模型和其他竞争波动率模型中，并比较了它们的建模性能。结果表明，根据对数似然和赤池信息准则以及样本外损失函数，所有LMSR模型都优于竞争对手。此外，这些LMSR模型的估计参数证实了长记忆的存在，而竞争的短记忆模型难以捕捉金融市场波动的持久性。

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引用次数: 0

The role of macro-finance factors in predicting stock market volatility: A latent threshold dynamic model 宏观金融因素在股票市场波动预测中的作用：一个潜在阈值动态模型

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101620

John M. Maheu , Azam Shamsi Zamenjani

Measuring, modeling, and forecasting volatility are of great importance in financial applications such as asset pricing, portfolio management, and risk management. In this paper, we investigate predictability of stock market volatility by macro-finance variables in a dynamic regression framework using latent thresholding. The latent threshold models allow data-driven shrinkage of regression coefficients by collapsing them to zero for irrelevant predictor variables and allowing for time-varying nonzero coefficients when supported by the data. This is a parsimonious framework which selects what potential predictor variables should be included in the regressions and when. We extend this model to allow for stochastic volatility for realized volatility innovations and discuss Bayesian estimation methods. We apply the models to monthly S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 volatility and find that using macro-finance variables in volatility forecasts enhances model performance statistically and economically, particularly when we allow for dynamic inclusion/exclusion of these variables.

测量、建模和预测波动性在诸如资产定价、投资组合管理和风险管理等金融应用中非常重要。本文利用潜在阈值法在动态回归框架下研究宏观金融变量对股票市场波动的可预测性。潜在阈值模型允许数据驱动的回归系数收缩，通过将不相关的预测变量压缩为零，并在数据支持下允许时变的非零系数。这是一个简洁的框架，选择哪些潜在的预测变量应该包括在回归和何时。我们扩展了这个模型，以允许实现波动率创新的随机波动，并讨论了贝叶斯估计方法。我们将模型应用于标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数的月度波动，发现在波动率预测中使用宏观金融变量可以提高模型在统计和经济上的表现，特别是当我们允许动态包含/排除这些变量时。

引用次数: 0

The rise of venture capital and IPO quality 风险投资的兴起与IPO质量

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101613

Amrita Nain , Jie Ying , Joseph Arthur

We show that an increase in the supply of venture capital (VC) leads to a decline in the quality of firms going public. We argue that due to VC selectivity, private capital flows disproportionately to the most promising firms causing them to hold back from public issuance. Post-IPO abnormal returns indicate that the stock market does not fully incorporate this decline in quality at the time of the IPO. Our research adds to recent evidence on the negative impact of fast-growing private markets on Main Street investors.

研究表明，风险资本供给的增加导致上市公司质量的下降。我们认为，由于风险投资的选择性，私人资本不成比例地流向最有前途的公司，导致它们不愿公开发行。IPO后的异常回报表明，在IPO时，股票市场并没有完全消化这种质量下降。我们的研究进一步证明了快速增长的私人市场对普通投资者的负面影响。

引用次数: 0

Creating value through corporate social responsibility: The role of foreign institutional investors in Chinese listed firms 通过企业社会责任创造价值：境外机构投资者在中国上市公司中的作用

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101621

Yunhe Li , Yu Liu , Mihail Miletkov , Tina Yang

This study examines the interplay between two major global trends—the growing role of foreign institutional ownership (FIO) due to financial liberalization and the rise of corporate social responsibility (CSR) as an investment ethos. We choose the setting of China, the world’s second-largest economy that has recently experienced substantial growth in foreign portfolio investment and increased its commitment to CSR. We document that CSR performance significantly influences the portfolio allocation decisions of certain types of FIO. Crucially, our analysis reveals that firms with a higher level of ownership by foreign institutional investors are associated with a more positive relation between CSR performance and firm value. This finding is robust to endogeneity examinations, including quasi-natural experiments and instrumental variable estimations. The finding is stronger for non-state-owned enterprises, firms with higher customer awareness, firms with more foreign directors, and firms with more frequent corporate site visits from FIO. Monitoring and advising are two likely channels through which FIO enhance the CSR-value relation. Finally, we demonstrate that FIO enhance firms’ ability to harness the power of CSR as a driver of innovation.

本研究考察了两种主要全球趋势之间的相互作用——由于金融自由化，外资机构所有权（FIO）的作用日益增强，以及企业社会责任（CSR）作为一种投资精神的兴起。我们选择的背景是中国，这个世界第二大经济体最近经历了海外证券投资的大幅增长，并加大了对企业社会责任的承诺。我们证明了企业社会责任绩效显著影响某些类型的投资组合配置决策。至关重要的是，我们的分析显示，外国机构投资者持股水平越高的公司，其社会责任绩效与公司价值之间的关系越积极。这一发现是稳健的内生性检查，包括准自然实验和工具变量估计。这一发现在非国有企业、客户认知度较高的企业、拥有更多外国董事的企业以及FIO更频繁访问企业的企业中更为明显。监测和建议是FIO加强企业社会责任与价值关系的两个可能渠道。最后，我们证明了企业自主创新增强了企业利用企业社会责任作为创新驱动力的能力。

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引用次数: 0

Regulatory fragmentation and corporate innovation 监管碎片化和企业创新

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101614

Hongkang Xu

Using a distinctive measure derived from the Federal Register, this study examines the relation between regulatory fragmentation and corporate innovation. While regulatory fragmentation is commonly perceived as a barrier due to increased compliance costs and operational complexities, I find a significant positive association between regulatory fragmentation and innovation outputs, a result that remains consistent across various robustness tests. This effect is particularly pronounced in older firms, those with considerable regulatory influence, large market shares, and firms operating in similar regulatory environments. The results challenge the predominantly negative perceptions surrounding regulatory fragmentation in policy discussions, highlighting its potential to significantly enhance a firm’s innovative capabilities.

本研究采用来自《联邦公报》的独特衡量标准，考察了监管碎片化与企业创新之间的关系。虽然由于合规成本增加和操作复杂性，监管碎片化通常被视为一种障碍，但我发现监管碎片化与创新产出之间存在显著的正相关关系，这一结果在各种稳健性测试中保持一致。这种效应在老公司中尤其明显，这些公司具有相当大的监管影响力，市场份额大，以及在类似监管环境中运营的公司。研究结果挑战了政策讨论中围绕监管碎片化的主要负面看法，强调了其显著提高公司创新能力的潜力。

引用次数: 0

Climate change risk and green bond pricing 气候变化风险与绿色债券定价

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101616

Alfonso Del Giudice, Silvia Rigamonti, Andrea Signori

We investigate whether climate change risk is accurately priced in the bond market. Green bonds outperform brown bonds after a climate-related disaster, consistent with investors adjusting their preference towards green assets. We then examine whether the post-disaster reaction is rational or affected by a behavioral bias. Our findings reveal two key patterns supporting the behavioral explanation: first, the impact of disasters on green bond prices is temporary as it fully reabsorbs by the fifth month after the event; second, the effect weakens as disasters become more repetitive. Overall, the evidence indicates that investors overreact in the immediate aftermath of a disaster and this overreaction fades as the event becomes less salient.

我们研究气候变化风险是否被准确地定价在债券市场。在与气候有关的灾难发生后，绿色债券的表现优于棕色债券，这与投资者对绿色资产偏好的调整是一致的。然后我们检查灾后反应是理性的还是受到行为偏见的影响。我们的研究结果揭示了支持行为解释的两个关键模式：首先，灾害对绿色债券价格的影响是暂时的，因为它在事件发生后的第五个月完全重新吸收；其次，随着灾难的不断重复，这种效应会减弱。总的来说，有证据表明，投资者在灾难发生后立即反应过度，而这种过度反应会随着事件变得不那么突出而消退。

引用次数: 0

Credit distortions in Japanese momentum 日本势头中的信贷扭曲

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101615

Sharon Y. Ross

Persistent credit distortions have warped equity returns in Japan, where decades of subsidized bank credit to “zombie firms” suppressed momentum premiums. Controlling for zombies revives Japan’s momentum effect: momentum earns significant alpha after adjusting for zombies, and momentum’s expected return and Sharpe ratio triple. The zombie-adjusted factor commands a positive price of risk, becomes unspanned by other factors, and aligns more closely with international patterns. Why? Zombies depend on forbearance from their banks, and zombie losers’ outsized betas to bank returns depress momentum. Analysis of syndicated loan data confirms that firms with forbearance-prone lenders drive Japan’s persistently low momentum returns.

持续的信贷扭曲扭曲了日本的股票回报，在日本，数十年来银行对“僵尸企业”的补贴信贷抑制了动量溢价。控制僵尸恢复了日本的动量效应：在调整僵尸后，动量获得了显著的alpha，动量的预期回报和夏普比率是原来的三倍。僵尸调整后的因素具有正的风险价格，不受其他因素的影响，并且与国际模式更接近。为什么?“僵尸”依赖于银行的宽容，而“僵尸输家”与银行回报的巨大贝塔系数抑制了势头。对银团贷款数据的分析证实，有忍让倾向的贷款机构的公司推动了日本持续低迷的动量回报。

引用次数: 0

Portfolio optimization with estimation errors—A robust linear regression approach 具有估计误差的投资组合优化——一种鲁棒线性回归方法

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101619

Yilin Du , Wenfeng He , Xiaoling Mei

Covariance and precision matrices of asset returns are unknown in practice and must be estimated in minimum variance portfolio optimizations. Although a variety of estimators have been proposed that give better out-of-sample performance than the sample covariance matrix, they nevertheless contain estimation error of the type that is most likely to disrupt the optimizer. In this study, we propose a robust optimization framework to tackle the estimation error issue. Rather than the sample covariance matrix, as is the case with the existing approaches, our framework focuses on the row sums of estimates of the precision matrix, which can greatly minimize the number of unknown parameters. A robust linear regression framework is developed to tackle the estimate error by first rewriting the portfolio optimization as a least-squares regression model. Furthermore, our results on both simulated and empirical data reveal that the suggested robust portfolios are more stable and perform better out-of-sample than existing estimators in general.

资产收益的协方差和精度矩阵在实践中是未知的，在最小方差组合优化中必须对其进行估计。尽管已经提出了各种各样的估计器，它们提供比样本协方差矩阵更好的样本外性能，但它们仍然包含最有可能破坏优化器的类型的估计误差。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个鲁棒优化框架来解决估计误差问题。与现有方法的样本协方差矩阵不同，我们的框架侧重于精度矩阵估计的行和，这可以极大地减少未知参数的数量。通过将投资组合优化重写为最小二乘回归模型，开发了一个鲁棒线性回归框架来解决估计误差。此外，我们在模拟和实证数据上的结果表明，所建议的稳健投资组合比现有的估计器更稳定，并且在样本外表现更好。

引用次数: 0

The AH premium: A tale of “siamese twin” stocks AH股溢价：“连体双胞胎”股票的故事

IF 2.1 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Empirical Finance

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101599

Renbin Zhang , Tongbin Zhang

A large proportion of Chinese companies are dual-listed in both the mainland (A-share) and Hong Kong (H-share) markets. A-shares usually sell at a premium, known as the AH premium, which is large and volatile. The AH premium resembles a globally well-known premium puzzle in “Siamese twin” stocks. We find that a model of subjective stock price expectations, where agents forecast the future capital gains by extrapolating from the past provides a good explanation. This finding emphasizes the importance of modeling investors with extrapolative stock price expectations.

很大一部分中国公司在内地（A股）和香港（h股）两地上市。a股通常以溢价出售，即AH溢价，这一溢价很大且波动很大。AH股溢价类似于全球知名的“连体双胞胎”股票溢价之谜。我们发现一个主观股价预期模型提供了一个很好的解释，其中代理人通过从过去推断来预测未来的资本收益。这一发现强调了用外推股价预期对投资者进行建模的重要性。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

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Journal of Empirical Finance

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