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Forecasting financial volatility: An approach based on Parkinson volatility measure with long memory stochastic range model 金融波动预测:基于长记忆随机区间模型的帕金森波动测度方法
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101617
Zhi De Khoo , Kok Haur Ng , You Beng Koh , Kooi Huat Ng
This paper proposes a long memory stochastic range (LMSR) model to investigate the persistence of range-based volatility series. The latent variable in the LMSR model is derived from the established autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process. To estimate the model parameters, there is no closed-form solution for the latent process. Hence, the parameters of the stochastic model are estimated by applying the quasi-maximum likelihood method via the Whittle approximation. A comprehensive simulation study assesses the method’s performance, with results showing that estimated parameters are close to true values and precision improves with longer simulated time series lengths. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we conducted empirical studies based on four financial assets, and their volatilities are estimated directly using the range-based Parkinson (PK) volatility measure. The results show evidence of long memory in these volatility series using the rescaled range and Geweke-Porter-Hudak methods. We fit the resulting PK volatility estimates to the LMSR model and other competing volatility models, and their modelling performances are compared. Results indicate that all LMSR models outperform competitors according to the log-likelihood and Akaike information criterion as well as out-of-sample loss functions. Additionally, the estimated parameters of these LMSR models confirm the presence of long memory, while competing short memory models struggle to capture the persistent nature of volatility in financial markets.
本文提出了一个长记忆随机极差(LMSR)模型来研究基于极差的波动率序列的持久性。LMSR模型的潜变量来源于已建立的自回归分数积分移动平均过程。为了估计模型参数,隐过程没有封闭解。因此,采用拟极大似然方法通过惠特尔近似估计随机模型的参数。综合仿真研究评估了该方法的性能,结果表明估计参数接近真实值,并且随着模拟时间序列长度的增加,精度有所提高。为了证明模型的适用性,我们基于四种金融资产进行了实证研究,并使用基于区间的帕金森(PK)波动率测度直接估计了它们的波动率。使用重新标度的范围和Geweke-Porter-Hudak方法,结果显示这些波动率序列具有长记忆的证据。我们将得到的PK波动率估计拟合到LMSR模型和其他竞争波动率模型中,并比较了它们的建模性能。结果表明,根据对数似然和赤池信息准则以及样本外损失函数,所有LMSR模型都优于竞争对手。此外,这些LMSR模型的估计参数证实了长记忆的存在,而竞争的短记忆模型难以捕捉金融市场波动的持久性。
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引用次数: 0
Creating value through corporate social responsibility: The role of foreign institutional investors in Chinese listed firms 通过企业社会责任创造价值:境外机构投资者在中国上市公司中的作用
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101621
Yunhe Li , Yu Liu , Mihail Miletkov , Tina Yang
This study examines the interplay between two major global trends—the growing role of foreign institutional ownership (FIO) due to financial liberalization and the rise of corporate social responsibility (CSR) as an investment ethos. We choose the setting of China, the world’s second-largest economy that has recently experienced substantial growth in foreign portfolio investment and increased its commitment to CSR. We document that CSR performance significantly influences the portfolio allocation decisions of certain types of FIO. Crucially, our analysis reveals that firms with a higher level of ownership by foreign institutional investors are associated with a more positive relation between CSR performance and firm value. This finding is robust to endogeneity examinations, including quasi-natural experiments and instrumental variable estimations. The finding is stronger for non-state-owned enterprises, firms with higher customer awareness, firms with more foreign directors, and firms with more frequent corporate site visits from FIO. Monitoring and advising are two likely channels through which FIO enhance the CSR-value relation. Finally, we demonstrate that FIO enhance firms’ ability to harness the power of CSR as a driver of innovation.
本研究考察了两种主要全球趋势之间的相互作用——由于金融自由化,外资机构所有权(FIO)的作用日益增强,以及企业社会责任(CSR)作为一种投资精神的兴起。我们选择的背景是中国,这个世界第二大经济体最近经历了海外证券投资的大幅增长,并加大了对企业社会责任的承诺。我们证明了企业社会责任绩效显著影响某些类型的投资组合配置决策。至关重要的是,我们的分析显示,外国机构投资者持股水平越高的公司,其社会责任绩效与公司价值之间的关系越积极。这一发现是稳健的内生性检查,包括准自然实验和工具变量估计。这一发现在非国有企业、客户认知度较高的企业、拥有更多外国董事的企业以及FIO更频繁访问企业的企业中更为明显。监测和建议是FIO加强企业社会责任与价值关系的两个可能渠道。最后,我们证明了企业自主创新增强了企业利用企业社会责任作为创新驱动力的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change risk and green bond pricing 气候变化风险与绿色债券定价
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101616
Alfonso Del Giudice, Silvia Rigamonti, Andrea Signori
We investigate whether climate change risk is accurately priced in the bond market. Green bonds outperform brown bonds after a climate-related disaster, consistent with investors adjusting their preference towards green assets. We then examine whether the post-disaster reaction is rational or affected by a behavioral bias. Our findings reveal two key patterns supporting the behavioral explanation: first, the impact of disasters on green bond prices is temporary as it fully reabsorbs by the fifth month after the event; second, the effect weakens as disasters become more repetitive. Overall, the evidence indicates that investors overreact in the immediate aftermath of a disaster and this overreaction fades as the event becomes less salient.
我们研究气候变化风险是否被准确地定价在债券市场。在与气候有关的灾难发生后,绿色债券的表现优于棕色债券,这与投资者对绿色资产偏好的调整是一致的。然后我们检查灾后反应是理性的还是受到行为偏见的影响。我们的研究结果揭示了支持行为解释的两个关键模式:首先,灾害对绿色债券价格的影响是暂时的,因为它在事件发生后的第五个月完全重新吸收;其次,随着灾难的不断重复,这种效应会减弱。总的来说,有证据表明,投资者在灾难发生后立即反应过度,而这种过度反应会随着事件变得不那么突出而消退。
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引用次数: 0
Regulatory fragmentation and corporate innovation 监管碎片化和企业创新
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101614
Hongkang Xu
Using a distinctive measure derived from the Federal Register, this study examines the relation between regulatory fragmentation and corporate innovation. While regulatory fragmentation is commonly perceived as a barrier due to increased compliance costs and operational complexities, I find a significant positive association between regulatory fragmentation and innovation outputs, a result that remains consistent across various robustness tests. This effect is particularly pronounced in older firms, those with considerable regulatory influence, large market shares, and firms operating in similar regulatory environments. The results challenge the predominantly negative perceptions surrounding regulatory fragmentation in policy discussions, highlighting its potential to significantly enhance a firm’s innovative capabilities.
本研究采用来自《联邦公报》的独特衡量标准,考察了监管碎片化与企业创新之间的关系。虽然由于合规成本增加和操作复杂性,监管碎片化通常被视为一种障碍,但我发现监管碎片化与创新产出之间存在显著的正相关关系,这一结果在各种稳健性测试中保持一致。这种效应在老公司中尤其明显,这些公司具有相当大的监管影响力,市场份额大,以及在类似监管环境中运营的公司。研究结果挑战了政策讨论中围绕监管碎片化的主要负面看法,强调了其显著提高公司创新能力的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
The rise of venture capital and IPO quality 风险投资的兴起与IPO质量
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101613
Amrita Nain , Jie Ying , Joseph Arthur
We show that an increase in the supply of venture capital (VC) leads to a decline in the quality of firms going public. We argue that due to VC selectivity, private capital flows disproportionately to the most promising firms causing them to hold back from public issuance. Post-IPO abnormal returns indicate that the stock market does not fully incorporate this decline in quality at the time of the IPO. Our research adds to recent evidence on the negative impact of fast-growing private markets on Main Street investors.
研究表明,风险资本供给的增加导致上市公司质量的下降。我们认为,由于风险投资的选择性,私人资本不成比例地流向最有前途的公司,导致它们不愿公开发行。IPO后的异常回报表明,在IPO时,股票市场并没有完全消化这种质量下降。我们的研究进一步证明了快速增长的私人市场对普通投资者的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
The influence of long-term managerial orientation on pay inequality 长期管理导向对薪酬不平等的影响
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101612
Chen-Chieh Liao , Yin-Hua Yeh
This paper examines the relationship between a firm's long-term managerial orientation and in-firm pay inequality. We exploit two exogenous shocks to firms’ long-term orientation, in the form of inheritance and estate tax changes in Taiwan in 2008 and 2017. Using over a decade's worth of pay inequality data, we demonstrate that a more (less) long-term managerial orientation in a firm, driven by decreases (increases) in estate tax, leads to an increase (decrease) of in-firm pay inequality. Further analysis suggests that changes in-firm pay inequality are associated with changes in executive compensation, rather than with changes in ordinary employee compensation. Furthermore, our results are more pronounced in firms with higher degrees of family ownership and firms in more competitive industries. This paper suggests policy implications for amendments to estate tax since in-firm pay inequality will increase as a result of decreases in estate tax, via effects on firms’ long-term managerial orientation.
本文考察了企业长期管理取向与企业内部薪酬不平等之间的关系。我们利用2008年和2017年台湾遗产税和遗产税变化对企业长期导向的两个外生冲击。利用十多年来的薪酬不平等数据,我们证明了在遗产税的减少(增加)驱动下,企业中更(更少)长期的管理导向会导致企业内薪酬不平等的增加(减少)。进一步的分析表明,企业内部薪酬不平等的变化与高管薪酬的变化有关,而与普通员工薪酬的变化无关。此外,我们的结果在家族所有权程度较高的公司和竞争更激烈的行业中更为明显。本文提出了修改遗产税的政策含义,因为遗产税的减少会通过对企业长期管理取向的影响而增加企业内部薪酬不平等。
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引用次数: 0
Bear factor and hedge fund performance 熊市因素与对冲基金业绩
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101611
Thang Ho , Anastasios Kagkadis , George Wang
We find that hedge funds that have low (negative) return covariance with the return of a bear spread portfolio (i.e., Bear factor) after controlling for the market factor, earn significantly higher returns in the cross-section. The return spread does not reflect bear risk premia; instead, it represents a low risk-high return relation. We decompose the Bear factor into different components to identify the one driving the bear beta effect on fund performance and show that the return spread can be attributed to the differential ability of low bear beta funds to reduce their market exposures when the market declines and the VIX increases (i.e., downside timing). Further analysis suggests that these fund managers are more skilled at selling overpriced insurance during volatile market periods. Overall, we propose a simple option-implied predictor of hedge fund returns and unravel a novel economic mechanism that associates the Bear factor exposure with fund performance.
我们发现,在控制了市场因素后,对冲基金与熊市价差投资组合(即熊市因素)的收益协方差较低(负)的对冲基金在横截面上的收益显著较高。收益差不能反映风险溢价;相反,它代表了一种低风险-高回报关系。我们将熊市因素分解为不同的组成部分,以确定驱动熊市贝塔效应对基金业绩的因素,并表明收益差可归因于低熊市贝塔基金在市场下跌和VIX上升时(即下行时机)减少市场敞口的不同能力。进一步的分析表明,这些基金经理更善于在市场波动时期出售定价过高的保险。总体而言,我们提出了一个简单的期权隐含预测对冲基金收益的方法,并揭示了一个新的经济机制,将贝尔斯登因素暴露与基金业绩联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
Maxing out short-term reversals in weekly stock returns 使每周股票收益的短期逆转最大化
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101608
Chen Chen , Andrew Cohen , Qiqi Liang , Licheng Sun
Subrahmanyam (1991) presents a model in which increased variance in liquidity trades reduces price efficiency when market makers are risk-averse. Motivated by this theoretical insight, we hypothesize that pent-up demand from lottery-seeking investors amplifies their overreactions to news, leading to larger short-term return reversals. Consistent with this hypothesis, we identify a significant pattern in weekly U.S. stock returns for lottery-like stocks, defined by high recent maximum daily returns (MAX). Specifically, high-MAX stocks that were past 1-week losers (or winners) exhibit notably positive (or negative) returns in the following week. Applying a short-term reversal strategy to high-MAX stocks generates an average weekly return of 1.66%, significantly outperforming the 0.65% return from the same strategy applied to low-MAX stocks. This result remains robust even after controlling for market microstructure biases and survives a series of robustness tests. Interestingly, the MAX-enhanced reversal strategy proves effective only when retail order imbalance is in the highest quintile. This result holds across both value-weighted and equal-weighted portfolios, underscoring the pivotal role of retail investors. Taken together, our findings highlight a new channel through which retail investors’ preference for lottery-like payoffs amplifies their overreactions, enhancing the profitability of short-term reversal strategies.
Subrahmanyam(1991)提出了一个模型,在该模型中,当做市商厌恶风险时,流动性交易的方差增加会降低价格效率。在这一理论见解的推动下,我们假设寻求彩票的投资者被压抑的需求放大了他们对新闻的过度反应,导致更大的短期回报逆转。与这一假设相一致,我们确定了彩票类股票的每周美国股票回报的显著模式,由近期最高日回报(MAX)定义。具体来说,高max股票在过去一周是输家(或赢家),在接下来的一周表现出显著的正(或负)回报。将短期反转策略应用于高max股票的平均周回报率为1.66%,显著优于应用于低max股票的相同策略的0.65%的回报率。即使在控制了市场微观结构偏差之后,这个结果仍然是稳健性的,并且经受住了一系列稳健性测试。有趣的是,max增强逆转策略仅在零售订单失衡处于最高五分位数时证明有效。这一结果适用于价值加权和等加权投资组合,强调了散户投资者的关键作用。综上所述,我们的研究结果突出了一个新的渠道,通过这个渠道,散户投资者对彩票类收益的偏好放大了他们的过度反应,增强了短期逆转策略的盈利能力。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the non-linear dynamics between Commercial Real Estate and systemic risk 探讨商业地产与系统性风险之间的非线性动态关系
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101607
George Kladakis , Nicole Lux , Alexandros Skouralis
The commercial real estate (CRE) market significantly influences financial stability, given its size, use as collateral, and cyclicality. This study explores macro-financial vulnerabilities arising from the CRE market, revealing that adverse developments in CRE capital values amplify systemic risk across financial sub-sectors, namely, banks, insurance companies and investment trusts, consistent with the collateral channel hypothesis. The CRE and financial markets relationship, however, displays nonlinearities. We introduce a UK CRE Misalignment index which integrates various market indicators to assess deviations from fundamental values in the CRE sector. We find that during market misalignments, the link between systemic risk and CRE growth weakens, suggesting that further property price increases in an overheated market could lead to a bubble and heightened systemic risk, in line with the deviation hypothesis. Finally, we employ a quantile regression model that captures another aspect of this non-linear relationship. We find that positive (negative) developments in the CRE market decrease (increase) the right tail of the historical systemic risk distribution, but CRE variation has a weak impact on the left tail and cannot effectively reduce systemic risk in periods of growth.
商业房地产(CRE)市场显著影响金融稳定,因为它的规模,用作抵押品,和周期性。本研究探讨了商业地产市场产生的宏观金融脆弱性,揭示了商业地产资本价值的不利发展放大了金融子行业(即银行、保险公司和投资信托公司)的系统性风险,这与抵押品渠道假设相一致。然而,CRE和金融市场的关系表现出非线性。我们介绍了英国商业地产失调指数,该指数整合了各种市场指标,以评估商业地产行业偏离基本价值的情况。我们发现,在市场失调期间,系统性风险与CRE增长之间的联系减弱,这表明在过热的市场中,房地产价格的进一步上涨可能导致泡沫和系统性风险加剧,符合偏差假设。最后,我们采用了一个分位数回归模型来捕捉这种非线性关系的另一个方面。我们发现,CRE市场的积极(消极)发展减少(增加)了历史系统性风险分布的右尾,但CRE变化对左尾的影响较弱,不能有效地降低增长时期的系统性风险。
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引用次数: 0
Is machine learning a necessity? A regression-based approach for stock return prediction 机器学习是必要的吗?基于回归的股票收益预测方法
IF 2.1 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101598
Tingting Cheng , Shan Jiang , Albert Bo Zhao , Junyi Zhao
We propose a simple, linear-regression-based method for prediction of the time series of stock returns. The method achieves out-of-sample performances comparable to machine learning methods while having ignorable computational costs. The key component of the method is to integrate a straightforward cross-market factor screening into the iterated combination method proposed by Lin et al., (2018). Our empirical results on the U.S. stock market show that the method outperforms many state-of-the-art machine learning methods in certain periods. The method also exhibits greater utility gain and investment profits in most periods after considering transaction costs.
我们提出了一个简单的,基于线性回归的方法来预测股票收益的时间序列。该方法实现了与机器学习方法相当的样本外性能,同时具有可忽略不计的计算成本。该方法的关键部分是将直接的跨市场因素筛选整合到Lin等人(2018)提出的迭代组合方法中。我们对美国股票市场的实证结果表明,该方法在某些时期优于许多最先进的机器学习方法。在考虑交易成本后,该方法在大多数时期也显示出更大的效用收益和投资利润。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Empirical Finance
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