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A GARCH model with two volatility components and two driving factors 一个具有两个波动分量和两个驱动因子的GARCH模型
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101671
Luca Vincenzo Ballestra , Enzo D’Innocenzo , Christian Tezza
We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of the characteristic function for future log-returns, from which semi-analytical formulas for option pricing can be derived. A theoretical analysis is conducted to establish sufficient conditions for strict stationarity and geometric ergodicity, while also obtaining the continuous-time diffusion limit of the model. Empirical evaluations, conducted both in-sample and out-of-sample using S&P500 time series data, show that our model outperforms widely used single-factor models in predicting returns and option prices. The code for estimating the model, as well as for computing option prices, is made accessible in MATLAB language.1
我们引入了一种新的GARCH模型,该模型集成了两种不确定性来源,以更好地捕捉在金融资产波动中经常观察到的丰富的多组分动态。该模型提供了未来对数收益特征函数的准封闭形式表示,由此可以导出期权定价的半解析公式。通过理论分析,建立了模型的严格平稳性和几何遍历性的充分条件,并得到了模型的连续时间扩散极限。使用s&p;P500时间序列数据进行的样本内和样本外实证评估表明,我们的模型在预测收益和期权价格方面优于广泛使用的单因素模型。估计模型的代码,以及计算期权价格的代码,都是用MATLAB语言编写的
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引用次数: 0
On evaluating the style-selection skill of hedge funds 评价对冲基金的风格选择技巧
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101683
Xiaolin Ye, Baibing Li, Kai-Hong Tee
A distinctive feature of hedge funds is their dynamic style of trading; hedge funds may shift the investment style in their lifetime. Style shifting is a strategic decision for funds which is beyond the more traditional stock-picking and market-timing carried out at the operational level. This paper tests and validates the performance implications of style-selection skill of hedge funds. Based on the trading style identification through Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis and the measure of style-selection skill developed in this paper, we find that such skill has predictive power for future fund performance, persisting for up to one year. In addition, our findings reveal that funds exhibiting greater style-selection skill enhance the probability of survival. Furthermore, we show that smaller, solo-managed funds operated by managers with longer tenure and higher management fees tend to have greater style-selection skill. Our findings support investors’ decisions when selecting hedge funds. It also opens a new perspective for managerial skills in active money management, reflecting managers’ expertise in data processing about micro and macro information and shocks to achieve success, when considering the investment style.
对冲基金的一个显著特征是其动态的交易风格;对冲基金在其一生中可能会改变投资风格。对基金来说,风格转变是一种战略决策,它超越了在操作层面进行的更传统的选股和择时操作。本文检验并验证了对冲基金风格选择技能对业绩的影响。基于概率主成分分析的交易风格识别和本文开发的风格选择技巧度量,我们发现这种技巧对未来基金业绩具有预测能力,持续时间长达一年。此外,我们的研究结果表明,表现出更高风格选择技能的基金提高了生存的概率。此外,我们还表明,由任期较长、管理费较高的基金经理经营的规模较小、由个人管理的基金往往具有更强的风格选择技能。我们的研究结果支持投资者选择对冲基金时的决策。它还为主动资金管理的管理技能开辟了一个新的视角,反映了管理者在考虑投资风格时,在处理微观和宏观信息以及冲击方面的专业知识,以实现成功。
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引用次数: 0
The decay of cay 日蚀
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101668
Moritz Dauber, Jochen Lawrenz
We revisit the ability of the consumption–wealth ratio (cay) to forecast stock market returns and document a substantial decline in predictability over the last two decades. This decay of cay goes along with a structural shift in the underlying cointegration relationship, which can be attributed to the fact that asset wealth evolves increasingly detached from aggregate consumption and labor income. We propose a new version of cay derived only from the top 10% richest households and show that among various other proposed improvements of cay, this appears as the most promising empirical proxy for the still appealing theory.
我们重新审视了消费财富比(day)预测股市回报的能力,并记录了过去二十年来可预测性的大幅下降。这种衰退伴随着潜在协整关系的结构性转变,这可以归因于资产财富越来越脱离总消费和劳动收入这一事实。我们提出了一个仅来自最富有的10%家庭的新版本的日,并表明在各种其他提出的日改进中,这似乎是最有希望的经验代理,仍然吸引人的理论。
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引用次数: 0
Factors in the cross-section of Chinese corporate bonds: Evidence from reduced-rank analysis 中国公司债券横截面的影响因素:来自降秩分析的证据
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2026.101686
Xuejun Jin , Yifan Chen , Xiaobin Liu , Tao Zeng
We investigate the cross-section of Chinese corporate bond returns using reduced-rank regression analysis (RRA) proposed by He et al. (2022). We collect 31 individual bond characteristics documented in the prior literature and construct 34 bond portfolios. Empirically, we find that an RRA three-factor model outperforms traditional factor models, and competing dimension-reduction methods (PCA and PLS) both in-sample and out-of-sample. The bond market factor is the dominant predictor, accounting for approximately 80% of the total explanatory power of RRA models, while other factors provide limited incremental pricing information, highlighting the need to find new bond factors. Furthermore, equity anomalies fail to improve the explanatory power of RRA models, only partially explaining the systematic component of bond returns within the RRA framework while providing negligible information for the idiosyncratic component.
我们使用He等人(2022)提出的减少秩回归分析(RRA)来研究中国公司债券回报的横截面。我们收集了先前文献中记录的31个单独债券特征,并构建了34个债券组合。通过实证研究,我们发现RRA三因素模型优于传统的因素模型,以及与之竞争的样本内和样本外降维方法(PCA和PLS)。债券市场因素是主要的预测因子,约占RRA模型总解释力的80%,而其他因素提供的增量定价信息有限,突出了寻找新的债券因素的必要性。此外,股票异常并不能提高RRA模型的解释力,只能部分解释RRA框架内债券收益的系统性成分,而对特质成分提供的信息可以忽略不计。
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引用次数: 0
Ranking finance conferences: An update 金融会议排名:最新进展
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101652
Wei Hou, Esad Smajlbegovic, Daniel Urban
Researchers need to decide on which academic conferences to attend. To inform this decision, we track the publication status of 6805 research articles presented at 87 finance conferences between 2011 and 2015. We rank these conferences based on publication rates in top finance and economics journals. To complement these rankings, we also examine publication rates within specific research fields and citation scores. The rankings show considerable heterogeneity in conference quality and uncover three major conference clusters. We further examine the role and timing of conferences in the publication process, analyze important time trends, explore the relationship between conference size and publication success, and highlight the relatively low overlap in accepted papers across conferences.
研究人员需要决定参加哪些学术会议。为了为这一决定提供信息,我们跟踪了2011年至2015年期间在87个金融会议上发表的6805篇研究论文的发表状况。我们根据在顶级财经期刊上的发表率对这些会议进行排名。为了补充这些排名,我们还检查了特定研究领域的发表率和引用分数。排名显示了会议质量的巨大异质性,并揭示了三个主要的会议集群。我们进一步考察了会议在发表过程中的作用和时间,分析了重要的时间趋势,探讨了会议规模与发表成功之间的关系,并强调了不同会议的被接受论文重叠率相对较低。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding climate risk in Europe: Are transition and physical risk priced in equity and fixed-income markets? 了解欧洲的气候风险:转型和实物风险是否反映在股票和固定收益市场中?
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101672
Nicola Bartolini, Silvia Romagnoli, Amia Santini
This study explores how climate-related risk factors influence the European equity and fixed-income markets. We examine the effect of specific physical risk drivers, including temperature fluctuations, drought, floods, wind, and wildfire risk, on both stocks and bonds. Additionally, we assess the impact of transition risk using two potential indicators: the log-returns of futures on European Carbon Allowances and a Transition Risk Index derived from credit default spreads. We also compare them to see if they carry the same information. Our findings reveal that climate risk variables have different effects on stocks and bonds, with stock returns appearing mostly unaffected by climate-related variables. In contrast, bond z-spreads show significant statistical relationships with both physical and transition climate risks. Physical risk, on average, rewards the green bonds in the sample, and penalizes the traditional bonds. As for transition risk, the two proxies are shown to capture different types of information and to affect different bonds. This suggests that credit default swaps are pricing a transition risk that goes beyond carbon emissions.
本研究探讨气候相关风险因素如何影响欧洲股票和固定收益市场。我们研究了具体的物理风险驱动因素,包括温度波动、干旱、洪水、风和野火风险,对股票和债券的影响。此外,我们使用两个潜在指标来评估转型风险的影响:欧洲碳配额期货的对数回报和由信用违约价差衍生的转型风险指数。我们也会比较它们,看它们是否携带相同的信息。我们的研究结果表明,气候风险变量对股票和债券的影响不同,股票收益似乎不受气候相关变量的影响。相比之下,债券z利差与物理和过渡气候风险都显示出显著的统计关系。平均而言,实物风险对样本中的绿色债券有利,而对传统债券不利。至于过渡风险,这两个代理显示捕获不同类型的信息并影响不同的债券。这表明,信用违约互换定价的是一种超越碳排放的转型风险。
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引用次数: 0
Media, inventors, and corporate innovation 媒体、发明家和企业创新
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101664
Yuqi Gu , Mahsa Kaviani , Lily Li , Hosein Maleki , Connie X. Mao
We examine the impact of Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest conservative media network in the US local TV markets, on corporate innovation following its staggered expansion across the country. We find a significant reduction in innovation output two to three years after Sinclair entry. As a larger proportion of inventors self-identify as left-leaning, we find that the effect runs through two mutually non-exclusive channels: the inventor productivity channel and the talent replacement channel. Inventors become less innovative when they stay in Sinclair-exposed firms, and firms face challenges replacing departed talent upon the local ideology shock induced by Sinclair.
我们研究了美国地方电视市场上最大的保守派媒体网络辛克莱广播集团(Sinclair Broadcast Group)在全国范围内的交错扩张对企业创新的影响。我们发现,在辛克莱进入公司两到三年后,创新产出显著下降。由于更大比例的发明家自我认同为左倾,我们发现这种效应通过两个相互不排斥的渠道:发明家生产力渠道和人才替代渠道。当发明家留在辛克莱影响的公司时,他们的创新能力会下降,而公司在辛克莱引发的当地意识形态冲击下,面临着替换离开的人才的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Why does the Cochrane–Piazzesi model predict treasury returns? 为什么Cochrane-Piazzesi模型可以预测国债收益率?
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101650
Riccardo Rebonato , Ken Nyholm
We explain why the Cochrane–Piazzesi (CP) model, which uses a single tent-shaped linear combination of forward rates, is so effective at predicting bond excess returns. By using a novel statistical test coupled with a popular resampling technique, first we rule out the possibility that the high predictability may be an artefact of in-sample overfitting. Then we find that, contrary to explanations proposed in the original CP paper, neither the specific tent shape of the factor loadings nor the four-to-five-year yield spread are essential for the model’s predictive power. Instead, our analysis suggests that the predictive power of the CP model lies in its ability to identify the cointegration relationship among the quasi-unit-root forward rate regressors needed to produce the stationary process of excess returns. To support this interpretation we show that cointegration relationships among forward rates directly provide strong predictors of excess returns, and we propose that the cointegration modes of attraction generate at least part of the excess returns. Our findings shed new light on the source of bond return predictability captured by the CP factor and highlight the link between cointegration properties and the dynamics of yields.1
我们解释了为什么Cochrane-Piazzesi (CP)模型在预测债券超额回报方面如此有效,该模型使用了一个单一的帐篷形远期利率线性组合。通过使用一种新颖的统计检验和流行的重采样技术,首先我们排除了高可预测性可能是样本内过拟合的人工产物的可能性。然后我们发现,与原CP论文中提出的解释相反,因子负荷的特定帐篷形状和4 - 5年收益率差对模型的预测能力都不是必不可少的。相反,我们的分析表明,CP模型的预测能力在于它能够识别产生超额收益平稳过程所需的准单位根正向利率回归量之间的协整关系。为了支持这一解释,我们表明远期利率之间的协整关系直接提供了超额回报的强预测因子,并且我们提出吸引力的协整模式至少产生了部分超额回报。我们的研究结果揭示了CP因子捕获的债券收益可预测性的来源,并强调了协整属性与收益率动态之间的联系
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引用次数: 0
Economic aggregation of return signals in global markets 全球市场回报信号的经济聚合
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101663
Mengmeng Dong
I provide novel evidence supporting the robust predictability of the “signal zoo” by clustering and aggregating 84 signals based on economic similarity. Economic clusters not only exhibit high (low) within-cluster (between-cluster) signal correlations — comparable to k-means clusters — but also produce composites that non-redundantly explain the cross-section of U.S. stock returns. All composites exhibit robust predictability in the U.S. and certain evidence in the global regions. Subsample and long-run return tests suggest that predictability primarily arises from risk, except for momentum, which is driven by mispricing. Composites generally outperform an average-signal strategy due to their superior ability to identify less noisy stocks.
通过基于经济相似性对84个信号进行聚类和聚合,我提供了支持“信号动物园”稳健可预测性的新证据。经济集群不仅表现出高(低)集群内(集群之间)的信号相关性(可与k均值集群相比较),而且还产生了非冗余解释美国股票回报横截面的复合材料。所有复合材料在美国都表现出强大的可预测性,在全球地区也有一定的证据。子样本和长期回报测试表明,可预测性主要来自风险,但动量除外,动量是由错误定价驱动的。综合指数的表现通常优于平均信号策略,因为它们识别噪音较小的股票的能力更强。
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引用次数: 0
Household debt overhang and bankruptcy abuse prevention 家庭债务积压和防止破产滥用
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101665
Yunqi Zhang , Yu Meng , Xiaoyu Zhang
Bankruptcy abuse prevention has been criticized for increasing foreclosure rates, imposing negative impacts on housing markets, and aggravating the financial crisis. By contrast, this paper documents that bankruptcy abuse prevention reduces household debt overhang, a phenomenon harmful to home values and housing markets. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that households in recourse states increased their home improvement and maintenance expenditures after the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, a period during which the households paid considerable attention to the downside risk of the housing market, and that the effects vary by home equity level. The results remain unchanged with alternative specifications and cannot be explained by credit changes, judicial and nonjudicial foreclosures, homestead exemption, house sales, or heterogeneous expectations. Last but not least, we use entropy balancing to eliminate the differences between the treatment and control groups and get similar results.
防止破产滥用被批评为增加丧失抵押品赎回权的比率,对住房市场造成负面影响,并加剧金融危机。相比之下,本文证明防止破产滥用减少了家庭债务积压,这是一种对房屋价值和住房市场有害的现象。通过差异中差异分析,我们发现,在破产滥用预防和消费者保护法实施后,有申诉权的州的家庭增加了房屋改善和维护支出,在此期间,家庭对住房市场的下行风险给予了相当大的关注,并且影响因房屋净值水平而异。结果与其他规范保持不变,不能用信贷变化、司法和非司法止赎、宅地豁免、房屋销售或异质预期来解释。最后但并非最不重要的是,我们使用熵平衡来消除实验组和对照组之间的差异,并得到相似的结果。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Empirical Finance
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