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Information salience, investor attention, and stock price crash risk 信息显著性、投资者关注和股价崩盘风险
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101670
Zhenshan Chen , Zhibing Li , Jie Liu , Xiaoyu Liu
We find that investor attention significantly increases stock price crash risk. To identify the causal effect, we employ daily repeated quasi-natural experiments where the difference of investor attention is not driven by stock fundamentals, but rather exogenous price rounding issue. This positive effect is more pronounced among firms with higher daily abnormal Baidu search index and higher abnormal small fund inflows ratio, but is mitigated for firms with more sophisticated investors, state-owned enterprise, and firms with relaxation of short-sale constraints. Additionally, we provide supporting evidence that information asymmetry triggered by noise attention serves as a channel through which investor attention amplifies stock price crash risk. Finally, we provide additional evidence illustrating the generalizability of our findings.
我们发现,投资者的关注显著增加了股价崩盘的风险。为了确定因果关系,我们采用每日重复的准自然实验,其中投资者注意力的差异不是由股票基本面驱动的,而是由外生价格舍入问题驱动的。这种正向效应在日异常百度搜索指数较高和异常小基金流入比例较高的公司中更为明显,但在投资者经验更丰富的公司、国有企业和卖空限制放宽的公司中有所缓解。此外,我们还提供了支持性证据,证明由噪音关注引发的信息不对称是投资者关注放大股价崩盘风险的一个渠道。最后,我们提供了额外的证据来说明我们的发现的普遍性。
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引用次数: 0
Volatility and jumps in the Chinese Yuan using Gumbel distribution during the trade war and COVID-19 pandemic 在贸易战和COVID-19大流行期间,使用甘贝尔分布的人民币波动和跳跃
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101669
Chae-Deug Yi
This study investigates the dynamic structure of intraday volatility and jump behavior in the Chinese yuan and US dollar exchange market by employing a Gumbel-distribution-based threshold derived from extreme value theory. Using five-minute high-frequency data over 2,450 trading days, we construct a daily jump probability index and examine its responsiveness to major economic shocks, including the U.S.–China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic. Regression and simulation analyses (5,000 replications) show that the Gumbel-based jump metric provides superior explanatory power in detecting large and irregular jumps. The Gumbel distribution offers a clear and theoretically grounded thresholding mechanism, making it particularly effective in identifying episodic volatility clusters during the 2010s. Tests by Lee and Hannig (2010) and Laurent and Shi (2020) also suggest that the Gumbel jump statistic is more appropriate for capturing the frequent and discontinuous jumps in foreign exchange volatility. Furthermore, after filtering for intraday periodicity, the estimated jump probabilities significantly decline, indicating the importance of periodicity adjustment. This study also confirms that jump probabilities were notably higher during the U.S.–China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic than in the overall sample period. Sensitivity tests on volatility filtering and simulation parameters further demonstrate the robustness of the Gumbel-based jump distribution.
本文采用基于甘贝尔分布的极值阈值理论,研究了人民币和美元外汇市场的日内波动和跳涨行为的动态结构。利用2450个交易日的5分钟高频数据,我们构建了每日跳跃概率指数,并研究了其对重大经济冲击的反应,包括美中贸易战和COVID-19大流行。回归和模拟分析(5000次重复)表明,基于gumbel的跳跃度量在检测大的和不规则的跳跃方面提供了优越的解释力。Gumbel分布提供了一个清晰的、理论上有根据的阈值机制,使其在识别2010年代的偶发性波动簇方面特别有效。Lee和Hannig(2010)以及Laurent和Shi(2020)的检验也表明,冈贝尔跳跃统计量更适合捕捉外汇波动的频繁和不连续跳跃。此外,在对日内周期性进行过滤后,估计的跳跃概率显著下降,表明周期性调整的重要性。该研究还证实,在美中贸易战和新冠肺炎大流行期间,跳跃概率明显高于整个样本时期。对波动率滤波和仿真参数的敏感性测试进一步证明了基于gumbel的跳跃分布的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
Bank dividends, interest expenses, and leverage 银行分红、利息支出和杠杆
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101667
Pierluca Pannella
This paper documents that the dividend payout ratios of larger US banks rise when interest rates increase. To account for this pattern, I develop a model of optimal investment and deposit issuance under a risk-based constraint. Smaller banks primarily generate profits from the Fed funds-deposit spread, which typically widens with higher rates. Larger banks, by contrast, hold a greater share of risky assets and keep government bonds mainly as precautionary buffers. In high-interest-rate environments, these larger banks see only a modest increase in profitability. Consequently, they have weaker incentives to expand their investments and instead opt to reduce their buffer of safe assets to distribute higher dividends. Empirical evidence on payout behavior and leverage across banks that gain different shares of income from government bonds aligns with the prediction of the model. The findings highlight the importance of monitoring banks’ payout and leverage during periods of rising interest rates.
本文证明,当利率上升时,美国大型银行的股息支付率上升。为了解释这种模式,我开发了一个基于风险约束下的最优投资和存款发行模型。较小的银行主要从联邦基金-存款利差中获得利润,这一利差通常会随着利率上升而扩大。相比之下,大银行持有的风险资产份额更大,持有政府债券主要是作为预防性缓冲。在高利率环境下,这些大银行的盈利能力只会小幅增长。因此,他们扩大投资的动力较弱,而是选择减少安全资产的缓冲来分配更高的股息。从政府债券中获得不同收入份额的银行的支付行为和杠杆率的实证证据与该模型的预测一致。调查结果突显了在利率上升期间监控银行支出和杠杆率的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Insider trading and anomalies 内幕交易和异常情况
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101666
Jiaxing Tian , Hong Xiang , Minghai Xu
We show that the insider trading pattern on anomaly long-short portfolio stocks can forecast anomaly returns. Specifically, we use the fraction of anomaly long-leg (short-leg) stocks being bought (sold) by insiders as a signal to extract insiders’ information on expected returns of the anomaly. Based on a composite anomaly measure that combines 11 prominent anomalies, we show that the insider trading signal significantly forecasts anomaly returns both in-sample and out-of-sample. These findings also help disentangle the risk-based and the mispricing-based explanations for anomaly returns.
我们证明了异常多空组合股票的内幕交易模式可以预测异常收益。具体而言,我们使用内幕人士买入(卖出)异常长腿(短腿)股票的比例作为信号,提取内幕人士对异常预期收益的信息。基于结合11个突出异常的复合异常度量,我们表明内幕交易信号可以显著预测样本内和样本外的异常回报。这些发现也有助于理清基于风险和基于错误定价的异常回报解释。
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引用次数: 0
Media, inventors, and corporate innovation 媒体、发明家和企业创新
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101664
Yuqi Gu , Mahsa Kaviani , Lily Li , Hosein Maleki , Connie X. Mao
We examine the impact of Sinclair Broadcast Group, the largest conservative media network in the US local TV markets, on corporate innovation following its staggered expansion across the country. We find a significant reduction in innovation output two to three years after Sinclair entry. As a larger proportion of inventors self-identify as left-leaning, we find that the effect runs through two mutually non-exclusive channels: the inventor productivity channel and the talent replacement channel. Inventors become less innovative when they stay in Sinclair-exposed firms, and firms face challenges replacing departed talent upon the local ideology shock induced by Sinclair.
我们研究了美国地方电视市场上最大的保守派媒体网络辛克莱广播集团(Sinclair Broadcast Group)在全国范围内的交错扩张对企业创新的影响。我们发现,在辛克莱进入公司两到三年后,创新产出显著下降。由于更大比例的发明家自我认同为左倾,我们发现这种效应通过两个相互不排斥的渠道:发明家生产力渠道和人才替代渠道。当发明家留在辛克莱影响的公司时,他们的创新能力会下降,而公司在辛克莱引发的当地意识形态冲击下,面临着替换离开的人才的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Economic aggregation of return signals in global markets 全球市场回报信号的经济聚合
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101663
Mengmeng Dong
I provide novel evidence supporting the robust predictability of the “signal zoo” by clustering and aggregating 84 signals based on economic similarity. Economic clusters not only exhibit high (low) within-cluster (between-cluster) signal correlations — comparable to k-means clusters — but also produce composites that non-redundantly explain the cross-section of U.S. stock returns. All composites exhibit robust predictability in the U.S. and certain evidence in the global regions. Subsample and long-run return tests suggest that predictability primarily arises from risk, except for momentum, which is driven by mispricing. Composites generally outperform an average-signal strategy due to their superior ability to identify less noisy stocks.
通过基于经济相似性对84个信号进行聚类和聚合,我提供了支持“信号动物园”稳健可预测性的新证据。经济集群不仅表现出高(低)集群内(集群之间)的信号相关性(可与k均值集群相比较),而且还产生了非冗余解释美国股票回报横截面的复合材料。所有复合材料在美国都表现出强大的可预测性,在全球地区也有一定的证据。子样本和长期回报测试表明,可预测性主要来自风险,但动量除外,动量是由错误定价驱动的。综合指数的表现通常优于平均信号策略,因为它们识别噪音较小的股票的能力更强。
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引用次数: 0
Household debt overhang and bankruptcy abuse prevention 家庭债务积压和防止破产滥用
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101665
Yunqi Zhang , Yu Meng , Xiaoyu Zhang
Bankruptcy abuse prevention has been criticized for increasing foreclosure rates, imposing negative impacts on housing markets, and aggravating the financial crisis. By contrast, this paper documents that bankruptcy abuse prevention reduces household debt overhang, a phenomenon harmful to home values and housing markets. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that households in recourse states increased their home improvement and maintenance expenditures after the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, a period during which the households paid considerable attention to the downside risk of the housing market, and that the effects vary by home equity level. The results remain unchanged with alternative specifications and cannot be explained by credit changes, judicial and nonjudicial foreclosures, homestead exemption, house sales, or heterogeneous expectations. Last but not least, we use entropy balancing to eliminate the differences between the treatment and control groups and get similar results.
防止破产滥用被批评为增加丧失抵押品赎回权的比率,对住房市场造成负面影响,并加剧金融危机。相比之下,本文证明防止破产滥用减少了家庭债务积压,这是一种对房屋价值和住房市场有害的现象。通过差异中差异分析,我们发现,在破产滥用预防和消费者保护法实施后,有申诉权的州的家庭增加了房屋改善和维护支出,在此期间,家庭对住房市场的下行风险给予了相当大的关注,并且影响因房屋净值水平而异。结果与其他规范保持不变,不能用信贷变化、司法和非司法止赎、宅地豁免、房屋销售或异质预期来解释。最后但并非最不重要的是,我们使用熵平衡来消除实验组和对照组之间的差异,并得到相似的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Ranking finance conferences: An update 金融会议排名:最新进展
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101652
Wei Hou, Esad Smajlbegovic, Daniel Urban
Researchers need to decide on which academic conferences to attend. To inform this decision, we track the publication status of 6805 research articles presented at 87 finance conferences between 2011 and 2015. We rank these conferences based on publication rates in top finance and economics journals. To complement these rankings, we also examine publication rates within specific research fields and citation scores. The rankings show considerable heterogeneity in conference quality and uncover three major conference clusters. We further examine the role and timing of conferences in the publication process, analyze important time trends, explore the relationship between conference size and publication success, and highlight the relatively low overlap in accepted papers across conferences.
研究人员需要决定参加哪些学术会议。为了为这一决定提供信息,我们跟踪了2011年至2015年期间在87个金融会议上发表的6805篇研究论文的发表状况。我们根据在顶级财经期刊上的发表率对这些会议进行排名。为了补充这些排名,我们还检查了特定研究领域的发表率和引用分数。排名显示了会议质量的巨大异质性,并揭示了三个主要的会议集群。我们进一步考察了会议在发表过程中的作用和时间,分析了重要的时间趋势,探讨了会议规模与发表成功之间的关系,并强调了不同会议的被接受论文重叠率相对较低。
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引用次数: 0
Momentum is still there conditional on volatility-amplified pessimism 动能仍在,但前提是波动性放大的悲观情绪
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101653
Soroush Ghazi , Mark Schneider , Jack Strauss
We present a representative agent model with probability weighting that predicts expected momentum returns decrease in market volatility and pessimism, and predicts the opposite for the equity premium. Hence, the model predicts that the expected market and momentum returns move in opposite directions and can be used to form a dynamic hedging strategy that conditions on market volatility and market pessimism. Our asset pricing model motivates an index of volatility-amplified pessimism (VAP) that predicts both momentum and market returns as well as a real-time trading strategy that uses the index to switch between the market and momentum portfolios. In high VAP states, the market generates high returns and Sharpe ratios, while momentum generates high returns and Sharpe ratios in low VAP states. Although most momentum strategies have recently disappeared we find that momentum is still there, conditional on the interaction between market pessimism and market volatility.
我们提出了一个具有代表性的代理模型,该模型具有概率加权,可以预测市场波动和悲观情绪下的预期动量收益下降,而股票溢价则相反。因此,该模型预测市场预期收益和动量收益是反向运动的,可以用来形成以市场波动和市场悲观为条件的动态对冲策略。我们的资产定价模型激发了波动放大悲观指数(VAP),该指数预测动量和市场回报,以及使用指数在市场和动量投资组合之间切换的实时交易策略。在高VAP状态下,市场产生高回报和夏普比率,而在低VAP状态下,动量产生高回报和夏普比率。虽然大多数动量策略最近消失了,但我们发现动量仍然存在,条件是市场悲观情绪和市场波动之间的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
The stock return predictability of treasury bond yield in China 中国国债收益率的股票收益可预测性
IF 2.4 2区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101654
Han Zhang , Xiong Xiong , Bin Guo
We provide empirical evidence that the average treasury bond yield across one- to ten-year maturities can negatively predict stock returns in the Chinese stock market. The substantial predictive power of bond yield underscores that the flight-to-safety effect associated with treasury bonds plays a predominant role in driving this predictive relationship. However, we find that bond yield does not operate as a systematic risk factor that explains cross-sectional variations in average stock returns, suggesting that it does not qualify as a state variable within the intertemporal capital asset pricing model framework proposed by Merton (1973). Using an affine market price of risk model, we demonstrate that the average bond yield serves as a pivotal determinant of the time-varying pattern of market prices for the market excess return factor, thereby establishing the theoretical foundation for its predictive power regarding stock returns.
我们提供了经验证据,证明一年期至十年期国债平均收益率可以负向预测中国股市的股票收益。债券收益率的强大预测能力表明,与国债相关的避险效应在推动这种预测关系方面起着主导作用。然而,我们发现债券收益率并不作为解释平均股票收益横截面变化的系统风险因素,这表明它不符合Merton(1973)提出的跨期资本资产定价模型框架中的状态变量。利用仿射市场风险价格模型,我们证明了债券平均收益率是市场超额收益因子的市场价格时变模式的关键决定因素,从而为其对股票收益的预测能力奠定了理论基础。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Empirical Finance
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