Journal of Finance最新文献

{"title":"Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Crises: Evidence from History and Administrative Data","authors":"GABRIEL JIMÉNEZ, DMITRY KUVSHINOV, JOSÉ-LUIS PEYDRÓ, BJÖRN RICHTER","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70023","url":null,"abstract":"We show that a U-shaped monetary rate path increases banking crisis risk, via credit and asset price cycles, analyzing 17 countries over 150 years. Rate hikes (raw or instrumented) increase crisis risk, but only if preceded by prolonged cuts. These patterns are unique to banking crises, unlike noncrisis recessions. Regarding the mechanism, prolonged cuts raise the likelihood of large credit and asset price booms, consistent with higher credit supply and risk-taking. Subsequent hikes strongly reduce credit and asset prices, and increase banks' realized credit risk, rather than interest rate risk. We find consistent results in administrative loan-level data for Spain.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146048675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bank Monitoring with On-Site Inspections","authors":"Amanda Rae Heitz, Christopher Martin, Alexander Ufier","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70026","url":null,"abstract":"Using proprietary transaction-level data on nonsyndicated construction loans, we provide some of the first empirical evidence on the drivers and consequences of bank monitoring through on-site inspections. Banks trade off monitoring intensity with favorable origination terms. Monitoring intensity escalates in response to local economic downturns or the bank's financial instability. Borrowers with negative inspection reports have more draw requests denied, suggesting that monitoring outcomes impact credit decisions. Both the occurrence and threat of increased inspection frequency correspond to reduced defaults. Overall, our results provide empirical support for a substantial body of theoretical literature on bank monitoring.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146021874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investor Composition and the Liquidity Component in the U.S. Corporate Bond Market","authors":"JIAN LI, HAIYUE YU","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70024","url":null,"abstract":"The link between corporate bond credit spreads and secondary market illiquidity in the cross section has grown stronger since 2005, resulting in a higher liquidity component in credit spreads. Using U.S. investor holdings data, we show that short-term investors (e.g., mutual funds/exchange-traded funds [ETFs]) increase trading activities in the secondary market, amplifying the effect of secondary market frictions on prices. We provide a model featuring heterogeneous investors with different trading needs and heterogeneous bonds to investigate the impact of the rapid-growing mutual fund/ETF sector on the corporate bond market. We find the change in investor composition can quantitatively explain the aggregate trend.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"142 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146021875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Model Ambiguity versus Model Misspecification in Dynamic Portfolio Choice","authors":"PASCAL J. MAENHOUT, HAO XING, ANNE G. BALTER","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70027","url":null,"abstract":"We study aversion to model ambiguity and misspecification in dynamic portfolio choice. Risk-averse investors (relative risk aversion <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/cae6eb4f-d3f0-45be-9c38-5fe824692b9d/jofi70027-math-0001.png\"></span><mjx-container aria-label=\"gamma greater than 1\" ctxtmenu_counter=\"1\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 96.2%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/jofi70027-math-0001.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"0,2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"inequality\" data-semantic-speech=\"gamma greater than 1\" data-semantic-type=\"relseq\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"greekletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"relseq,>\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"inequality\" data-semantic-type=\"relation\" rspace=\"5\" space=\"5\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml aria-hidden=\"true\" display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00221082:media:jofi70027:jofi70027-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/jofi70027-math-0001.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"0,2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic-role=\"inequality\" data-semantic-speech=\"gamma greater than 1\" data-semantic-type=\"relseq\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"greekletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\">γ</mi><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"relseq,>\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"inequality\" data-semantic-type=\"relation\">></mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">1</mn></mrow>$gamma > 1$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>) fear return persistence, while risk-tolerant investors (<span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/65d9c7e8-9d3e-4b22-b066-908fcd865eef/jofi70027-math-0002.png\"></span><mjx-container aria-label=\"0 less than gamma less than 1\" ctxtmenu_counter=\"2\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 96.2%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/jofi70027-math-0002.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"0,2,4\" data-semantic-content=\"1,3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"inequality\" data-semantic-speech=\"0 less","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146021876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deposit Inflows and Outflows in Failing Banks: The Role of Deposit Insurance","authors":"CHRISTOPHER MARTIN, MANJU PURI, ALEXANDER UFIER","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70007","url":null,"abstract":"Using unique, daily, account-level data, we investigate deposit outflows and inflows in a distressed bank. We observe an <i>outflow</i> of uninsured depositors following bad regulatory news. Both regular and temporary deposit insurance reduce outflows. We provide important new evidence that, simultaneous with deposit outflows, deposit <i>inflows</i> are first order. Uninsured deposit outflows were largely offset with new insured deposit inflows as the bank approached failure, with the bank increasing term deposit rates. This phenomenon holds in a large sample of banks that faced regulatory action, suggesting that insured deposit inflows are an important mechanism that weakens depositor discipline.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146005704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Institutional Investor Attention","authors":"ALAN KWAN, YUKUN LIU, BEN MATTHIES","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70009","url":null,"abstract":"Using data on Internet news reading, we measure fund‐level attention to both aggregate and firm‐specific news and relate it to fund portfolio allocation decisions. In the time series, we find that funds shift attention toward macroeconomic news during periods of high aggregate volatility. Those funds that exhibit stronger attention‐reallocation patterns earn higher future returns. In the cross‐section of fund portfolios, fund attention is positively related to stock holdings. Furthermore, fund attention to a stock increases the value‐add of that position to the fund's performance. This relationship is stronger using fund attention to more value‐relevant news articles.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145986251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corporate ESG Profiles and Investor Horizons","authors":"LAURA T. STARKS, PARTH VENKAT, QIFEI ZHU","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70008","url":null,"abstract":"We find that long-term institutional investors tilt their portfolios toward firms with better Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) profiles, in the cross sections of both institutional investor portfolios and the ownership of firms. We test whether several theoretically motivated mechanisms can explain this relationship. Our results that long-term investors exhibit patience with firms around poor earnings announcements, but quickly sell portfolio firms after negative ES incidents, support the view that long- and short-term investors evaluate information differently. Our evidence shows that limits-to-arbitrage play a role, as we find that investors' ESG tilt weakens following regulatory shocks that shorten their horizon.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"94 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145919876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Default Risk and the Pricing of U.S. Sovereign Bonds","authors":"ROBERT F. DITTMAR, ALEX HSU, GUILLAUME ROUSSELLET, PETER SIMASEK","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70014","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the relative pricing of nominal Treasury bonds and Treasury inflation‐protected securities in the presence of U.S. default risk. Hedged breakeven inflation is significantly positively related to U.S. default risk, driven by correlation between shocks to default risk and both shocks to inflation swap premia and Treasury yields. To understand the mechanisms through which default risk is related to inflation swaps and sovereign yields, we estimate an affine term structure model to capture their joint dynamics. Our estimation implies that the interaction between inflation dynamics and default is the primary source of differential pricing.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145908100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investment under Upstream and Downstream Uncertainty","authors":"FOTIS GRIGORIS,&nbsp;GILL SEGAL","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70010","DOIUrl":"10.1111/jofi.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The impact of uncertainty shocks on firm-level economic activity depends on their origin in supply chains. Upstream (downstream) uncertainty from suppliers (customers) is associated with variability over future input (output) prices. Consequently, a real-option production model with time-to-build suggests that only upstream uncertainty suppresses investment, since upstream (downstream) uncertainty affects the shorter (longer) run. Production network data show that upstream uncertainty negatively affects firm-level outcomes. Conversely, downstream uncertainty affects firm-level outcomes more weakly but positively. At the macro level, these two uncertainties oppositely predict aggregate growth and asset prices. Overall, downstream uncertainty has an expansionary effect, in contrast to other facets of uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"81 1","pages":"413-457"},"PeriodicalIF":9.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145808080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"FinTech Lending and Cashless Payments","authors":"PULAK GHOSH, BORIS VALLEE, YAO ZENG","doi":"10.1111/jofi.70003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.70003","url":null,"abstract":"Borrowers' use of cashless payments improves their access to capital from FinTech lenders and predicts a lower probability of default. These relationships are stronger for cashless technologies providing more precise information, and for outflows. Cashless payment usage complements other signals of borrower quality. We rationalize these empirical findings using a framework in which borrowers signal their lower likelihood of diverting cash flows through payment technology choice, and screening accuracy is further strengthened by informational complementarities. The informational synergy we uncover provides a rationale for the joint rise of cashless payments and FinTech lending, as well as for open banking.","PeriodicalId":15753,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Finance","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}