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The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations 违反担保利率平价的期限结构
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-31 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13336
PATRICK AUGUSTIN, MIKHAIL CHERNOV, LUKAS SCHMID, DONGHO SONG

We quantify the impact of risk-based and nonrisk-based intermediary constraints (IC) on the term structure of covered interest rate parity (CIP) violations. Using a stochastic discount factor (SDF) inferred from interest rate swaps, we value currency derivatives. The wedge between model-implied and observed derivative prices reflects the impact of nonrisk-based IC because our SDF incorporates risk-based IC. There is no wedge at short horizons, while the wedge accounts for 40% of long-term CIP violations. Consistent with IC theory, the wedge correlates with the shadow cost of intermediary capital, and the SDF-implied interest rate is a weighted average of collateralized and uncollateralized interest rates.

我们量化了基于风险和非基于风险的中介约束(IC)对违反担保利率平价(CIP)的期限结构的影响。利用从利率掉期推断出的随机贴现因子(SDF),我们对货币衍生品进行了估值。由于我们的 SDF 包含了基于风险的 IC,因此模型推测的衍生品价格与观察到的衍生品价格之间的楔形反映了非基于风险的 IC 的影响。短期内没有楔形,而楔形占长期 CIP 违规行为的 40%。与集成电路理论一致,楔形与中介资本的影子成本相关,而 SDF 暗示的利率是有抵押和无抵押利率的加权平均值。
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引用次数: 0
BRATTLE GROUP AND DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS PRIZES FOR 2023 布鲁特尔集团和维度基金顾问 2023 年奖项
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13328
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引用次数: 0
AMERICAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION 美国金融协会
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13145
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引用次数: 0
Report of the Editor of The Journal of Finance for the Year 2023 2023 年《金融杂志》编辑报告
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13329
ANTOINETTE SCHOAR
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引用次数: 0
Report of the 2024 Annual Membership Meeting 2024 年会员年会报告
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13326
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引用次数: 0
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer for the Fiscal Year Ending June 30, 2023 执行秘书兼财务主任关于截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日的财政年度的报告
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13327
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引用次数: 0
Modeling Conditional Factor Risk Premia Implied by Index Option Returns 指数期权收益率隐含的条件因子风险溢价建模
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13324
MATHIEU FOURNIER, KRIS JACOBS, PIOTR ORŁOWSKI

We propose a novel factor model for option returns. Option exposures are estimated nonparametrically, and factor risk premia can vary nonlinearly with states. The model is estimated using regressions with minimal assumptions on factor and option return dynamics. We estimate the model using index options to characterize the conditional risk premia for factors of interest, such as the market return, market variance, tail and intermediary risk factors, higher moments, and the VIX term structure slope. Together, market return and variance explain more than 90% of option return variation. Unconditionally, the magnitude of the variance risk premium is plausible. It displays pronounced time variation, spikes during crises, and always has the expected sign.

我们提出了一种新的期权收益因子模型。期权风险敞口以非参数方式估算,因子风险溢价可随状态非线性变化。该模型采用回归法进行估计,对因子和期权收益动态的假设极少。我们使用指数期权对模型进行估计,以描述市场回报、市场方差、尾部和中间风险因素、高矩以及 VIX 期限结构斜率等相关因素的条件风险溢价。市场回报率和方差加在一起可以解释 90% 以上的期权回报率变化。无条件地,方差风险溢价的幅度是合理的。它显示出明显的时间变化,在危机期间出现峰值,并且总是具有预期的符号。
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引用次数: 0
Does Alternative Data Improve Financial Forecasting? The Horizon Effect 替代数据能改善金融预测吗?地平线效应
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13323
OLIVIER DESSAINT, THIERRY FOUCAULT, LAURENT FRESARD

Existing research suggests that alternative data are mainly informative about short-term future outcomes. We show theoretically that the availability of short-term-oriented data can induce forecasters to optimally shift their attention from the long term to the short term because it reduces the cost of obtaining short-term information. Consequently, the informativeness of their long-term forecasts decreases, even though the informativeness of their short-term forecasts increases. We test and confirm this prediction by considering how the informativeness of equity analysts' forecasts at various horizons varies over the long run and with their exposure to social media data.

现有研究表明,替代数据主要提供短期未来结果的信息。我们从理论上证明,短期导向数据的可用性会促使预测者以最佳方式将注意力从长期转向短期,因为这降低了获取短期信息的成本。因此,尽管短期预测的信息量增加了,但长期预测的信息量却减少了。我们通过研究股票分析师在不同期限内的预测信息量在长期内是如何变化的,以及他们接触社交媒体数据的情况,检验并证实了这一预测。
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引用次数: 0
Due Diligence 尽职调查
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13322
BRENDAN DALEY, THOMAS GEELEN, BRETT GREEN

We propose a model of due diligence and analyze its effect on prices, payoffs, and deal completion. In our model, if the seller accepts an offer, the winning bidder (or “acquirer”) can gather information and chooses when to complete the transaction. In equilibrium, the acquirer engages in “too much” due diligence. Our quantitative results suggest that the magnitude of the distortion is economically significant. Nevertheless, allowing for due diligence can improve both total surplus and the seller's payoff compared to a setting without due diligence. We use our framework to explore the timing of due diligence, bidder heterogeneity, and breakup fees.

我们提出了一个尽职调查模型,并分析了它对价格、回报和交易完成的影响。在我们的模型中,如果卖方接受要约,中标者(或 "收购方")可以收集信息并选择何时完成交易。在均衡状态下,收购方会进行 "过多 "的尽职调查。我们的定量结果表明,扭曲的程度在经济上是显著的。尽管如此,与没有尽职调查的情况相比,允许尽职调查可以提高总盈余和卖方收益。我们利用我们的框架探讨了尽职调查的时机、投标人异质性和分手费。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring “Dark Matter” in Asset Pricing Models 测量资产定价模型中的 "暗物质
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-03 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13317
HUI CHEN, WINSTON WEI DOU, LEONID KOGAN

We formalize the concept of “dark matter” in asset pricing models by quantifying the additional informativeness of cross-equation restrictions about fundamental dynamics. The dark-matter measure captures the degree of fragility for models that are potentially misspecified and unstable: a large dark-matter measure indicates that the model lacks internal refutability (weak power of optimal specification tests) and external validity (high overfitting tendency and poor out-of-sample fit). The measure can be computed at low cost even for complex dynamic structural models. To illustrate its applications, we provide quantitative examples applying the measure to (time-varying) rare-disaster risk and long-run risk models.

我们通过量化有关基本动态的交叉方程限制的额外信息量,正式确定了资产定价模型中的 "暗物质 "概念。暗物质度量可以捕捉到可能被错误规范化和不稳定的模型的脆弱程度:暗物质度量大,表明模型缺乏内部可反驳性(最优规范测试能力弱)和外部有效性(过拟合倾向高,样本外拟合能力差)。即使是复杂的动态结构模型,也能以较低的成本计算出该度量。为说明其应用,我们提供了将该指标应用于(时变)罕见灾害风险和长期风险模型的量化示例。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Finance
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