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Lender Automation and Racial Disparities in Credit Access 贷方自动化与信贷获取方面的种族差异
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13303
SABRINA T. HOWELL, THERESA KUCHLER, DAVID SNITKOF, JOHANNES STROEBEL, JUN WONG

Process automation reduces racial disparities in credit access by enabling smaller loans, broadening banks' geographic reach, and removing human biases from decision making. We document these findings in the context of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), where private lenders faced no credit risk but decided which firms to serve. Black-owned firms obtained PPP loans primarily from automated fintech lenders, especially in areas with high racial animus. After traditional banks automated their loan processing procedures, their PPP lending to Black-owned firms increased. Our findings cannot be fully explained by racial differences in loan application behaviors, preexisting banking relationships, firm performance, or fraud rates.

流程自动化可使贷款规模缩小、扩大银行的地理覆盖范围并消除决策中的人为偏见,从而减少信贷获取方面的种族差异。我们在 "工资保护计划"(PPP)中记录了这些发现,在该计划中,私人贷款人不面临任何信贷风险,但可以决定为哪些公司提供服务。黑人企业主要从自动化金融科技贷款机构获得 PPP 贷款,尤其是在种族仇恨严重的地区。在传统银行将贷款处理程序自动化后,他们对黑人企业的 PPP 贷款增加了。我们的研究结果不能完全用贷款申请行为的种族差异、原有银行关系、公司业绩或欺诈率来解释。
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引用次数: 0
Prestige, Promotion, and Pay 声望、晋升和薪酬
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13301
DANIEL FERREIRA, RADOSLAWA NIKOLOWA

We develop a theory in which financial (and other professional services) firms design career structures to “sell” prestigious jobs to qualified candidates. Firms create less prestigious entry-level jobs, which serve as currency for employees to pay for the right to compete for the more prestigious jobs. In optimal career structures, entry-level employees (“associates”) compete for better-paid and more prestigious positions (“managing directors” or “partners”). The model provides new implications relating job prestige to compensation, employment, competition, and the size of the financial sector.

我们提出了这样一种理论:金融(和其他专业服务)公司设计职业结构,向合格的求职者 "出售 "有声望的职位。公司设立一些声望较低的初级职位,作为员工支付竞争声望较高职位的权利的货币。在最佳职业结构中,入门级员工("助理")竞争薪酬更高、声望更高的职位("总经理 "或 "合伙人")。该模型提供了工作声望与薪酬、就业、竞争和金融行业规模之间的新关系。
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引用次数: 0
The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction 回报预测中的复杂性美德
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13298
BRYAN KELLY, SEMYON MALAMUD, KANGYING ZHOU

Much of the extant literature predicts market returns with “simple” models that use only a few parameters. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we theoretically prove that simple models severely understate return predictability compared to “complex” models in which the number of parameters exceeds the number of observations. We empirically document the virtue of complexity in U.S. equity market return prediction. Our findings establish the rationale for modeling expected returns through machine learning.

现有文献大多采用仅使用几个参数的 "简单 "模型来预测市场回报。与传统观点相反,我们从理论上证明,与参数数量超过观测数据数量的 "复杂 "模型相比,简单模型严重低估了回报率的可预测性。我们通过实证证明了复杂模型在美国股市回报预测中的优势。我们的研究结果为通过机器学习建立预期收益模型提供了理论依据。
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引用次数: 0
Disclosing to Informed Traders 向知情交易者披露信息
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13296
SNEHAL BANERJEE, IVÁN MARINOVIC, KEVIN SMITH

We develop a model in which a firm's manager can voluntarily disclose to privately informed investors. In equilibrium, the manager only discloses sufficiently favorable news. If the manager is known to be informed but disclosure is costly, the probability of disclosure increases with market liquidity and the stock trades at a discount relative to expected cash flows. However, when investors are uncertain about whether the manager is informed, disclosure can decrease with market liquidity and the stock can trade at a premium relative to expected cash flows. Moreover, contrary to common intuition, public information can crowd in more voluntary disclosure.

我们建立了一个模型,在这个模型中,公司经理可以自愿向私下知情的投资者披露信息。在均衡情况下,经理只披露足够有利的消息。如果已知经理是知情的,但披露是有成本的,那么披露的概率就会随着市场流动性的增加而增加,股票交易相对于预期现金流就会打折。然而,当投资者不确定经理是否知情时,披露会随着市场流动性的增加而减少,股票交易相对于预期现金流会出现溢价。此外,与通常的直觉相反,公开信息会吸引更多的自愿披露。
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引用次数: 0
Aversion to Student Debt? Evidence from Low-Wage Workers 对学生债务的厌恶?来自低薪工人的证据
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13297
RADHAKRISHNAN GOPALAN, BARTON H. HAMILTON, JORGE SABAT, DAVID SOVICH

We combine state minimum wage changes with individual-level income and credit data to estimate the effect of wage gains on the debt of low-wage workers. In the three years following a $0.88 minimum wage increase, low-wage workers experience a $2,712 income increase and a $856 decrease in debt. The entire decline in debt comes from less student loan borrowing among enrolled college students. Credit constraints, buffer-stock behavior, and other rational channels cannot explain the reduction in student debt. Our results are consistent with students perceiving a utility cost of borrowing student debt arising from mental accounting.

我们将各州的最低工资变化与个人层面的收入和信贷数据相结合,来估算工资增长对低薪工人债务的影响。在最低工资提高 0.88 美元后的三年中,低工资工人的收入增加了 2712 美元,债务减少了 856 美元。债务减少的全部原因是在校大学生的学生贷款减少。信贷约束、缓冲库存行为和其他合理渠道都无法解释学生债务减少的原因。我们的研究结果与学生从心理核算中感知到借贷学生债务的效用成本是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
Disclosing a Random Walk 披露随机漫步
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13290
ILAN KREMER, AMNON SCHREIBER, ANDRZEJ SKRZYPACZ

We examine a dynamic disclosure model in which the value of a firm follows a random walk. Every period, with some probability, the manager learns the firm's value and decides whether to disclose it. The manager maximizes the market perception of the firm's value, which is based on disclosed information. In equilibrium, the manager follows a threshold strategy with thresholds below current prices. He sometimes reveals pessimistic information that reduces the market perception of the firm's value. He does so to reduce future market uncertainty, which is valuable even under risk-neutrality.

我们研究了一个动态披露模型,其中公司的价值遵循随机游走。每个时期,经理都有可能了解到公司的价值,并决定是否披露。管理者以披露的信息为基础,最大化市场对公司价值的认知。在均衡状态下,基金经理采用低于当前价格的阈值策略。他有时会透露一些悲观的信息,从而降低市场对公司价值的认知。他这样做是为了减少未来市场的不确定性,即使在风险中立的情况下,这也是有价值的。
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引用次数: 0
Information Cascades and Threshold Implementation: Theory and an Application to Crowdfunding 信息级联与阈值实现:理论及其在众筹中的应用
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-11-05 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13294
LIN WILLIAM CONG, YIZHOU XIAO

Economic interactions often involve sequential actions, observational learning, and contingent project implementation. We incorporate all-or-nothing thresholds in a canonical model of information cascades. Early supporters effectively delegate their decisions to a “gatekeeper,” resulting in unidirectional cascades without herding on rejections. Project proposers can consequently charge higher prices. Proposal feasibility, project selection, and information aggregation all improve, even when agents can wait. Equilibrium outcomes depend on crowd size, and project implementation and information aggregation achieve efficiency in the large-crowd limit. Our key insights hold under thresholds in dollar amounts and alternative equilibrium selection, among other model extensions.

经济互动通常包括连续的行动、观察学习和偶然的项目实施。我们将全有或全无的阈值纳入信息级联的规范模型中。早期的支持者有效地将他们的决定委托给“看门人”,导致单向级联,而不会聚集拒绝。因此,项目发起人可以收取更高的价格。提案可行性、项目选择和信息聚合都得到了改善,即使代理可以等待。均衡结果取决于人群规模,在大人群限制下,项目实施和信息聚合达到效率。在其他模型扩展中,我们的关键见解在美元金额和替代均衡选择的阈值下成立。
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引用次数: 0
Intervention with Screening in Panic-Based Runs 基于恐慌的跑步筛查干预
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13295
LIN SHEN, JUNYUAN ZOU

Policymakers frequently use guarantees to mitigate panic-based runs in the financial system. We analyze a binary-action coordination game under the global games framework and propose a novel intervention program that screens investors based on their heterogeneous beliefs about the system's stability. The program only attracts investors who are at the margin of running, and their participation boosts all investors' confidence in the financial system. Compared with government guarantee programs, our proposed program is as effective at mitigating runs but features two advantages: it costs less to implement and it is robust to moral hazard.

政策制定者经常使用担保来缓解金融系统中基于恐慌的挤兑。我们分析了全球博弈框架下的二元行动协调博弈,并提出了一种新的干预方案,该方案基于投资者对系统稳定性的异质信念来筛选投资者。该计划只吸引处于运行边缘的投资者,他们的参与增强了所有投资者对金融体系的信心。与政府担保计划相比,我们提出的计划在缓解挤兑方面同样有效,但有两个优点:实施成本较低,而且对道德风险很强。
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引用次数: 0
Trading and Shareholder Democracy 贸易与股东民主
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13289
DORON LEVIT, NADYA MALENKO, ERNST MAUG

We study shareholder voting in a model in which trading affects the composition of the shareholder base. Trading and voting are complementary, which gives rise to self-fulfilling expectations about proposal acceptance and multiple equilibria. Prices and shareholder welfare can move in opposite directions, so the former may be an invalid proxy for the latter. Relaxing trading frictions can reduce welfare because it allows extreme shareholders to gain more weight in voting. Delegating decision-making to the board can help overcome collective action problems at the voting stage. We also analyze the role of index investors and social concerns of shareholders.

我们在一个交易影响股东基础组成的模型中研究股东投票。交易和投票是互补的,这产生了对提案接受和多重均衡的自我实现预期。价格和股东福利可能会朝着相反的方向发展,因此前者可能是后者的无效代表。缓和交易摩擦可以降低福利,因为这可以让极端股东在投票中获得更多的权重。将决策权交给董事会有助于克服投票阶段的集体行动问题。我们还分析了指数投资者的作用和股东的社会关切。
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引用次数: 0
Liquidation Value and Loan Pricing 清算价值与贷款定价
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13291
FRANCESCA BARBIERO, GLENN SCHEPENS, JEAN-DAVID SIGAUX

This paper shows that the liquidation value of collateral depends on the interdependency between borrower and collateral risk. Using transaction-level data on short-term repurchase agreements (repo), we show that borrowers pay a premium of 1.1 to 2.6 basis points when their default risk is positively correlated with the risk of the collateral that they pledge. Moreover, we show that borrowers internalize this premium when making their collateral choices. Loan-level credit registry data suggest that the results extend to the corporate loan market as well.

本文表明,抵押品的变现价值取决于借款人与抵押品风险之间的相互依赖性。使用短期回购协议(回购)的交易水平数据,我们发现,当借款人的违约风险与他们质押的抵押品的风险呈正相关时,他们支付1.1至2.6个基点的溢价。此外,我们还表明,借款人在选择抵押品时会将这种溢价内化。贷款水平信贷登记处的数据表明,这一结果也适用于企业贷款市场。
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Journal of Finance
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