Journal of Finance最新文献

Farmer, Schmidt, and Timmermann (FST) document time-variation in market return predictability, identifying “pockets” of significant predictability through kernel regressions. However, our analysis reveals a critical discrepancy between the method outlined by FST and the code actually implemented. Instead of using a one-sided kernel, which guarantees out-of-sample forecasts, they perform in-sample estimation with a two-sided kernel. As a result, future information leaks into the forecasting model, undermining its reliability. Rectifying this error qualitatively alters the findings, invalidating most conclusions of the FST study. Thus, attempts to exploit such “pockets”—should they exist—offer little help in forecasting market returns.

We use newly assembled data overall encompassing up to 75 countries and starting circa 1910, to study impediments to the Schumpeterian process of creative destruction as it “proceeds by competitively destroying old businesses.” Political connections appear to represent an obstacle to the destructive part of the Schumpeterian process in the replacement of large firms. When accompanied by regulations that restrict entry, political connections can play a role in allowing large firms to remain large. When connected to Fogel, Morck, and Yeung (2008, Journal of Financial Economics 89, 83–108), the results imply that political connections, combined with barriers to entry, can retard economic development.

This paper makes the first comprehensive attempt to study within-country heterogeneity of housing returns. We introduce a new city-level data set covering 15 OECD countries over 150 years and show that national housing markets are characterized by systematic spatial variation in housing returns. Total returns in large agglomerations are close to 100 basis points lower per year than in other parts of the same country. Excess returns outside the large cities can be rationalized as compensation for higher risk, especially higher covariance with income growth and lower liquidity. Real estate in diversified large agglomerations is comparatively safe.

We study the impact of an MBA-style executive education course in finance on corporate policies and firm performance targeting top managers of medium and large Mozambican enterprises. Using a randomized controlled trial, we find that the educational treatment induces changes in financial policies that improve firm performance. Specifically, a reduction in working capital (0.4 to 0.5 standard deviations) increases cash flow, and in turn long-term investments. This effect operates primarily through a reduction in accounts receivable (0.4 to 1 standard deviations). Our findings show that targeted educational interventions can build managerial capital and enhance corporate performance by improving financial decision making among executives.

Based on centuries of data, we demonstrate that demographics have been a major, predictable driver of house prices. High birth rates 25 to 29 (60 to 64) years ago predict declining (rising) rent-price ratios today. This pattern arises from age-concentrated entry into and exit from homeownership affecting house prices, rather than changes in housing consumption that could also impact rents. We provide evidence for possible mechanisms: slow responses of other market participants to shifts in homeownership demand, and geographic segmentation between rental and owner-occupied markets. Evidence for age-dependent demand effects on yields of bonds and stocks is significantly weaker.