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Regulating Over-the-Counter Markets 监管场外交易市场
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13461
TOMY LEE, CHAOJUN WANG

Over-the-counter (OTC) trading thrives despite competition from exchanges. We let OTC dealers cream skim from exchanges in an otherwise standard Glosten and Milgrom framework. Restricting the dealer's ability to cream skim induces “cheap substitution”: some traders exit while others with larger gains from trade enter. Cheap substitution implies trading costs, trade volumes, and market shares are poor policy indicators. In a benchmark case, restricting the dealer raises welfare only if trading cost increases, volume falls, and OTC market share is high. By contrast, the restriction improves welfare when adverse selection risk is low. A simple procedure implements the optimal Pigouvian tax.

尽管来自交易所的竞争,场外交易(OTC)仍然蓬勃发展。我们让场外交易商在标准的格洛斯滕和米尔格罗姆框架下从交易所揩油。限制交易商赚取暴利的能力会导致“廉价替代”:一些交易商退出,而其他从交易中获得更大收益的交易商进入。廉价替代品意味着交易成本、贸易量和市场份额是糟糕的政策指标。在基准情况下,只有在交易成本增加、交易量下降、场外市场份额较高的情况下,对交易商的限制才会提高福利。相反,当逆向选择风险较低时,限制提高了福利。一个简单的程序实现了最优庇古税。
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引用次数: 0
What Is the Cost of Privatization for Workers? 私有化对工人的代价是什么?
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-30 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13462
MARTIN OLSSON, JOACIM TÅG

Privatization of state-owned enterprises is on the agenda across the globe. Using Swedish data covering two decades, we show that productivity gains and headcount reductions are associated with economic costs for incumbent workers. Workers experience income losses and higher unemployment, but half of the losses are covered by the social safety net. We also find small positive effects on entrepreneurship and cash holdings but no meaningful effects on other labor market, family, health, or household finance outcomes. Productivity improves when the CEO is replaced, and the gains outweigh workers' income declines by a factor of between two and six.

国有企业私有化已提上全球议程。利用瑞典20年的数据,我们表明,生产力的提高和员工人数的减少与在职员工的经济成本有关。工人们经历了收入损失和更高的失业率,但其中一半的损失由社会安全网弥补。我们还发现,对创业精神和现金持有有很小的积极影响,但对其他劳动力市场、家庭、健康或家庭财务结果没有显著影响。当首席执行官被替换时,生产率会提高,而且收益比工人收入下降的幅度高出2到6倍。
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引用次数: 0
The Value of Bank Lending 银行贷款的价值
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13465
THOMAS FLANAGAN

Using a novel data set of realized syndicated loan cash flows and a risk-adjustment methodology adapted from the private equity literature, I provide a measure of risk-adjusted returns for bank loan cash flows. Banks, on average, generate 180 basis points in gross risk-adjusted returns and add $75 million of value annually to their loan portfolios. Banks earn higher returns when they lend to financially constrained borrowers, and the risk-adjusted performance of bank loan portfolios exhibits persistence. However, banks require higher risk-adjusted returns when facing their own financing frictions, and shareholders earn nearly zero net risk-adjusted returns once bank staff are compensated for their lending effort. Overall, these findings suggest that banks provide valuable services to mitigate borrowers' financing frictions, and the present value of loan cash flows pays for the costs of providing these services.

使用一套新的已实现银团贷款现金流数据集和一种改编自私募股权文献的风险调整方法,我提供了一种衡量银行贷款现金流风险调整回报的方法。平均而言,银行的总风险调整回报率为180个基点,其贷款组合每年增加7500万美元的价值。当银行向财政拮据的借款人提供贷款时,它们可以获得更高的回报,而且经风险调整后的银行贷款组合表现出持久性。然而,当银行面临自身的融资摩擦时,银行需要更高的风险调整后回报,而一旦银行员工的贷款努力得到补偿,股东的风险调整后净回报几乎为零。总体而言,这些发现表明,银行提供有价值的服务以减轻借款人的融资摩擦,贷款现金流的现值支付了提供这些服务的成本。
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引用次数: 0
The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union 异质货币联盟中的利率期限结构
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13463
JAMES COSTAIN, GALO NUÑO, CARLOS THOMAS

We build an arbitrage-based model of the yield curves in a heterogeneous monetary union with sovereign default risk, which accounts for the asymmetric shifts in euro-area yields during the Covid-19 pandemic. We derive an affine term structure solution, and decompose yields into expectations, term premium, expected default loss, and credit risk premium components. In an extension, we endogenize the peripheral default probability, showing that it decreases with central bank bond holdings. Calibrating the model to Germany and Italy, we show that both the level and the shifts in the sovereign spread are mainly attributable to the credit risk premium.

我们在具有主权违约风险的异质货币联盟中建立了一个基于套利的收益率曲线模型,该模型解释了Covid-19大流行期间欧元区收益率的不对称变化。我们推导了一个仿射期限结构解,并将收益率分解为预期、期限溢价、预期违约损失和信用风险溢价部分。在一个扩展中,我们内生了外围国家的违约概率,表明它随着央行持有债券而降低。将模型校准到德国和意大利,我们发现主权利差的水平和变化主要归因于信用风险溢价。
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引用次数: 0
Interlocking Directorates and Competition in Banking 联锁首长与银行业竞争
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-27 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13464
GUGLIELMO BARONE, FABIANO SCHIVARDI, ENRICO SETTE

We study the effects on corporate loan rates of an unexpected change in the Italian legislation that forbade interlocking directorates between banks. Exploiting multiple firm-bank relationships to fully account for all unobserved heterogeneity, we find that prohibiting interlocks decreased the interest rates of previously interlocked banks by 14 basis points relative to other banks. The effect is stronger for high-quality firms and for loans extended by interlocked banks with a large joint market share. Interest rates on loans from previously interlocked banks become more dispersed. Finally, firms borrowing more from previously interlocked banks expand investment, employment, and sales.

我们研究了意大利立法的意外变化对企业贷款利率的影响,该变化禁止银行之间的连锁董事。利用多家公司-银行关系来充分解释所有未观察到的异质性,我们发现,禁止联锁使以前联锁的银行的利率相对于其他银行降低了14个基点。这种效应对于高质量的公司和由联合占有较大市场份额的连锁银行发放的贷款更为明显。以前相互关联的银行的贷款利率变得更加分散。最后,企业从以前相互关联的银行借入更多资金,扩大了投资、就业和销售。
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引用次数: 0
Would Order-By-Order Auctions Be Competitive? 按订单拍卖会有竞争力吗?
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13449
THOMAS ERNST, CHESTER SPATT, JIAN SUN

We model two methods of executing segregated retail orders: brokers' routing, whereby brokers allocate orders using the market maker's overall performance, and order-by-order auctions, where market makers bid on individual orders, a recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposal. Order-by-order auctions improve allocative efficiency, but face a winner's curse reducing retail investor welfare, particularly when liquidity is limited. Additional market participants competing for retail orders fail to improve total efficiency and investor welfare when entrants possess information superior to incumbent wholesalers. Our results hold when new entrants are less informed or the information structure differs. We also examine the cross-subsidization of brokers' routing.

我们对两种执行隔离零售订单的方法进行了建模:经纪人的路由,经纪人根据做市商的整体表现分配订单;以及逐个订单拍卖,做市商对单个订单出价,这是美国证券交易委员会最近提出的一项建议。逐单拍卖提高了配置效率,但面临着赢家的诅咒,减少了散户投资者的福利,尤其是在流动性有限的情况下。当进入者拥有优于现有批发商的信息时,竞争零售订单的额外市场参与者无法提高总效率和投资者福利。我们的研究结果适用于新进入者信息较少或信息结构不同的情况。我们还研究了经纪人路由的交叉补贴。
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引用次数: 0
AMERICAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13460
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引用次数: 0
Women in Charge: Evidence from Hospitals 妇女负责:来自医院的证据
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13455
KATHARINA LEWELLEN

The paper examines the decision-making, compensation, and turnover of female CEOs in U.S. hospitals. Contrary to the literature on lower-ranked executives and directors in public firms, there is no evidence that gender differences in preferences for risk or altruism affect decision-making of hospital CEOs: corporate policies do not shift when women take (or leave) office, and male and female CEOs respond similarly to a major financial shock. However, female CEOs earn lower salaries, face flatter pay-for-performance incentives, and exhibit greater turnover after poor performance. Hospital boards behave as though they perceive female CEOs as less productive.

本文考察了美国医院女性首席执行官的决策、薪酬和流动率。与关于上市公司低级别高管和董事的文献相反,没有证据表明风险偏好或利他主义的性别差异会影响医院首席执行官的决策:当女性上任(或离职)时,公司政策不会发生变化,男性和女性首席执行官对重大财务冲击的反应相似。然而,女性首席执行官的薪水较低,面临更公平的绩效薪酬激励,并且在业绩不佳后表现出更大的离职率。医院董事会似乎认为女性首席执行官的工作效率较低。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits 动态银行和存款价值
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13454
PATRICK BOLTON, YE LI, NENG WANG, JINQIANG YANG

We propose a theory of banking in which banks cannot perfectly control deposit flows. Facing uninsurable loan and deposit shocks, banks dynamically manage lending, wholesale funding, deposits, and equity. Deposits create value by lowering funding costs. However, when the bank is undercapitalized and at risk of breaching leverage requirements, the marginal value of deposits can turn negative as deposit inflows, by raising leverage, increase the likelihood of costly equity issuance. Banks' inability to fully control leverage distinguishes them from nondepository intermediaries. Our model suggests a reevaluation of leverage regulations and offers new perspectives on banking in a low-interest-rate environment.

我们提出了一个银行理论,其中银行不能完全控制存款流动。面对不可保险的贷款和存款冲击,银行动态管理贷款、批发融资、存款和股权。存款通过降低融资成本来创造价值。然而,当银行资本不足并面临违反杠杆要求的风险时,存款的边际价值可能变为负值,因为通过提高杠杆,存款流入增加了昂贵的股票发行的可能性。银行无法完全控制杠杆,这将它们与非存款中介区分开来。我们的模型建议对杠杆监管进行重新评估,并为低利率环境下的银行业提供新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Is the United States a Lucky Survivor? A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach 美国是幸运的幸存者吗?层次贝叶斯方法
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13452
JULES VAN BINSBERGEN, SOPHIA HUA, JONAS PEETERS, JESSICA WACHTER

Using international data, we quantify the magnitude of survivorship bias in U.S. equity market performance, finding that it explains about one-third of the equity risk premium in the past century. We model the subjective crash belief of an investor who infers the crash risk in the United States by cross-learning from other countries. The U.S. crash probability shows a persistent and widening divergence from the implied global average. We attribute the upward bias in the measured equity premium to crashes that did not occur in-sample and to shocks to valuations resulting from learning about the probability.

利用国际数据,我们量化了美国股票市场表现中的生存偏差的程度,发现它解释了过去一个世纪中约三分之一的股票风险溢价。我们建立了一个投资者的主观崩溃信念模型,该投资者通过交叉学习其他国家来推断美国的崩溃风险。美国经济崩溃的可能性与隐含的全球平均水平存在持续且不断扩大的差异。我们将测量到的股票溢价中的向上偏差归因于样本内未发生的崩溃,以及由于了解概率而导致的估值冲击。
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Journal of Finance
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