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Firm Performance Pay as Insurance against Promotion Risk 企业绩效薪酬是晋升风险的保险
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13379
ALVIN CHEN

The prevalence of pay based on risky firm outcomes for nonexecutive workers presents a puzzling departure from conventional contract theory, which predicts insurance provision by the firm. When workers at the same firm compete against each other for promotions, the optimal contract features pay based on firm outcomes as insurance against promotion risk. The model's predictions are consistent with many observed phenomena, such as performance-based vesting and overvaluation of equity pay by nonexecutive workers. It also generates novel predictions linking a firm's hierarchy to its workers' pay structure.

非高管员工的薪酬普遍基于有风险的公司结果,这与传统的契约理论有很大不同,传统契约理论预测由公司提供保险,而非高管员工的薪酬普遍基于有风险的公司结果,这令人费解。当同一公司的员工为晋升而相互竞争时,最优合同的特点是根据公司结果支付薪酬,作为晋升风险的保险。该模型的预测与许多观察到的现象一致,如基于绩效的归属和非执行员工对股权薪酬的高估。该模型还提出了新颖的预测,将公司的等级制度与员工的薪酬结构联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
Business News and Business Cycles 商业新闻和商业周期
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13377
LELAND BYBEE, BRYAN KELLY, ASAF MANELA, DACHENG XIU

We propose an approach to measuring the state of the economy via textual analysis of business news. From the full text of 800,000 Wall Street Journal articles for 1984 to 2017, we estimate a topic model that summarizes business news into interpretable topical themes and quantifies the proportion of news attention allocated to each theme over time. News attention closely tracks a wide range of economic activities and can forecast aggregate stock market returns. A text-augmented vector autoregression demonstrates the large incremental role of news text in forecasting macroeconomic dynamics. We retrieve the narratives that underlie these improvements in market and business cycle forecasts.

我们提出了一种通过商业新闻文本分析来衡量经济状况的方法。我们从《华尔街日报》1984 年至 2017 年的 80 万篇文章全文中估算出一个主题模型,该模型将商业新闻概括为可解释的主题,并量化了随着时间推移分配给每个主题的新闻关注比例。新闻关注密切跟踪各种经济活动,并能预测股市的总体回报。文本增强向量自回归证明了新闻文本在预测宏观经济动态方面的巨大增量作用。我们检索了市场和商业周期预测得以改善的原因。
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引用次数: 0
The Mortgage-Cash Premium Puzzle 抵押贷款与现金溢价之谜
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13373
MICHAEL REHER, ROSSEN VALKANOV

All-cash homebuyers account for one-third of U.S. home purchases between 1980 and 2017. We use multiple data sets and research designs to robustly estimate that mortgaged buyers pay an 11% premium over all-cash buyers to compensate home sellers for mortgage transaction frictions. A dynamic, representative-seller model implies only a 3% premium, which would suggest an 8% puzzle. Accounting for heterogeneity in selling conditions explains half of this difference, but a puzzle holds in conditions with high transaction risk. An experimental survey of U.S. homeowners replicates these patterns and suggests that belief distortions can explain the puzzle in these high-risk states.

1980 年至 2017 年间,全现金购房者占美国购房人数的三分之一。我们利用多种数据集和研究设计稳健地估计,抵押贷款购房者比全款购房者支付了 11% 的溢价,以补偿卖房者的抵押贷款交易摩擦。一个动态的、具有代表性的卖方模型只意味着 3% 的溢价,这意味着 8% 的谜团。考虑到销售条件的异质性,可以解释这一差异的一半,但在交易风险较高的条件下,谜团依然存在。一项针对美国房主的实验调查复制了这些模式,并表明信念扭曲可以解释这些高风险状态下的谜题。
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引用次数: 0
On the Magnification of Small Biases in Hiring 论招聘中微小偏见的放大
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13374
SHAUN WILLIAM DAVIES, EDWARD D. VAN WESEP, BRIAN WATERS

We analyze a setting in which a board must hire a chief executive officer (CEO) after exerting effort to learn about the quality of each candidate. Optimal effort is asymmetric, implying asymmetric likelihoods of each candidate being chosen. If the board has an infinitesimal bias in favor of one candidate, it allocates effort to maximize the likelihood of that candidate being chosen. Even when the board's prior is that its preferred candidate is inferior, she may still be chosen most often. A glass ceiling can also arise whereby the tendency to hire favored candidates increases as the importance of the position increases.

我们分析了这样一种情况:董事会在努力了解每位候选人的素质后,必须聘用一位首席执行官(CEO)。最佳努力是不对称的,这意味着每个候选人被选中的可能性是不对称的。如果董事会对某一候选人有无限大的偏好,它就会分配精力,使该候选人被选中的可能性最大化。即使董事会先验地认为其倾向的候选人较差,她仍可能最常被选中。玻璃天花板也可能出现,即随着职位重要性的增加,聘用受青睐候选人的倾向也会增加。
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引用次数: 0
Anomaly Time 异常时间
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13372
BOONE BOWLES, ADAM V. REED, MATTHEW C. RINGGENBERG, JACOB R. THORNOCK

We examine the timing of returns around the publication of anomaly trading signals. Using a database that captures when information is first publicly released, we show that anomaly returns are concentrated in the first month after information release dates, and these returns decay soon thereafter. We also show that the academic convention of forming portfolios in June underestimates predictability because it uses stale information, which makes some anomalies appear insignificant. In contrast, we show many anomalies do predict returns if portfolios are formed immediately after information releases. Finally, we develop guidance on forming portfolios without using stale information.

我们研究了异常交易信号发布前后的回报时间。我们利用数据库捕捉信息首次公开发布的时间,结果表明,异常交易回报集中在信息发布日后的第一个月,而且这些回报很快就会衰减。我们还表明,在 6 月份形成投资组合的学术惯例低估了可预测性,因为它使用的是陈旧的信息,这使得一些异常现象显得无关紧要。相反,我们表明,如果在信息发布后立即组建投资组合,许多异常情况确实能预测收益。最后,我们制定了在不使用陈旧信息的情况下形成投资组合的指南。
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引用次数: 0
Very Noisy Option Prices and Inference Regarding the Volatility Risk Premium 噪音非常大的期权价格与波动性风险溢价推断
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13365
JEFFERSON DUARTE, CHRISTOPHER S. JONES, JUNBO L. WANG

The stylized fact that volatility is not priced in individual equity options does not withstand scrutiny. First, we show that the average return of heavily traded deep out-of-the-money call options on stocks is −116 basis points per day. Second, Fama-MacBeth estimates of the volatility risk premium in stock options are similar to those in S&P 500 Index call options. Third, the mean return of heavily traded delta-hedged at-the-money calls (puts) is −23 (−30) basis points. Fourth, the variance risk premium in stock options is negative. Our analysis highlights the importance of microstructure biases and robustness in empirical work with options.

单个股票期权不对波动率定价这一典型事实经不起推敲。首先,我们发现大量交易的深度价外股票看涨期权的平均回报率为每天-116 个基点。其次,股票期权波动性风险溢价的 Fama-MacBeth 估计值与 S&P 500 指数看涨期权的波动性风险溢价相似。第三,大量交易的 Delta 对冲看涨(看跌)期权的平均收益率为-23(-30)个基点。第四,股票期权的方差风险溢价为负值。我们的分析强调了微观结构偏差和稳健性在期权实证研究中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Treasury Richness 库房丰富
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13371
MATTHIAS FLECKENSTEIN, FRANCIS A. LONGSTAFF

We provide estimates of Treasury convenience premia across the entire term structure of Treasury bills, notes, and bonds over more than a quarter of a century and document a variety of key stylized facts about their time-series and cross-sectional patterns. These results raise concerns about the evolving nature of Treasury markets and suggest that investors may now place less weight on the traditional role of Treasury securities as liquid trading vehicles. These stylized facts provide empirical benchmarks that could help guide future theoretical and empirical work about the economics of safe assets in financial markets.

我们提供了超过四分之一世纪以来国库券、票据和债券整个期限结构中的国库便利溢价估计值,并记录了有关其时间序列和横截面模式的各种关键风格化事实。这些结果引起了人们对国债市场演变性质的关注,并表明投资者现在可能不再那么重视国债作为流动性交易工具的传统作用。这些典型事实提供了经验基准,有助于指导未来有关金融市场安全资产经济学的理论和经验研究工作。
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引用次数: 0
AMERICAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION 美国金融协会
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13151
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引用次数: 0
Unobserved Performance of Hedge Funds 对冲基金的非观测绩效
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13368
VIKAS AGARWAL, STEFAN RUENZI, FLORIAN WEIGERT

We investigate hedge fund firms’ unobserved performance (UP), measured as the risk-adjusted return difference between a firm's reported gross return and its portfolio return inferred from its disclosed long-equity holdings. Firms with high UP outperform those with low UP by 6.36% per annum on a risk-adjusted basis. UP is negatively associated with a firm's trading costs and positively associated with intraquarter trading in equity positions, derivatives usage, short selling, and confidential holdings. We show that limited investor attention can delay investors’ response to UP and lead to longer lived predictability of fund firm performance.

我们研究了对冲基金公司的非观察绩效(UP),其衡量标准是公司报告的总回报与根据其披露的长期股权持有情况推断的投资组合回报之间的风险调整后回报差异。经风险调整后,UP 高的公司每年比 UP 低的公司高出 6.36%。UP与公司的交易成本呈负相关,与季度内股票仓位交易、衍生品使用、卖空和机密持股呈正相关。我们的研究表明,有限的投资者关注会延迟投资者对 UP 的反应,并导致基金公司业绩的可预测性更持久。
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引用次数: 0
Do Women Receive Worse Financial Advice? 女性获得的理财建议更糟糕吗?
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13366
UTPAL BHATTACHARYA, AMIT KUMAR, SUJATA VISARIA, JING ZHAO

We arranged for trained undercover men and women to pose as potential clients and visit all 65 local financial advisory firms in Hong Kong. At financial planning firms, but not at securities firms, women were more likely than men to receive advice to buy only individual or only local securities. Female clients who signaled high confidence, high risk tolerance, or a domestic outlook were especially likely to receive this suboptimal advice. Our theoretical model explains these patterns as a result of statistical discrimination interacting with advisors’ incentives. Taste-based discrimination is unlikely to explain the results.

我们安排训练有素的男女卧底人员假扮潜在客户,走访了香港所有 65 家本地金融咨询公司。在理财规划公司,而非证券公司,女性比男性更容易接受只购买个人证券或只购买本地证券的建议。那些表现出高度自信、高风险承受能力或国内前景的女性客户尤其容易收到这种次优建议。我们的理论模型将这些模式解释为统计歧视与顾问激励相互作用的结果。基于口味的歧视不太可能解释这些结果。
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Journal of Finance
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