Pub Date : 2026-01-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jes.2026.01.034
Chen Chen , Zongguo Wen , Ni Sheng , Qingbin Song
Land use changes reshape the generation and transport patterns of nitrogen (N) entering the water environment from both natural and anthropogenic activities, by altering the type and intensity of N-emitting activities and the retention effect on N in surface runoff that traverses the land. This study develops an integrated methodological framework that combines N flow analysis, geospatial analysis, land use change prediction, and nutrient transport simulation to analyze the spatial patterns of waterborne N emissions under various land use scenarios, considering different future land structures and the implementation of riparian buffers as artificial interventions. Using the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a case, we find that all land use scenarios in 2030 and 2040 involve the expansion of impervious land and the reduction of forest and water, with only the Ecological Conservation scenario resulting in a minimal loss of forest. Direct N emissions to water account for >85 % of the total waterborne N emissions, while indirect N emissions from diffuse sources exhibit an export rate of around 16 %. By 2040, the Ecological Conservation scenario preserves 511 km² more arable land compared to the Economic Development scenario, while also achieving a reduction of 870 t of N export. This benefit is particularly significant for highly urbanized cities. Riparian buffers are critical areas for reforestation with an estimated reduction of approximately 6.9 t N for every additional km² of riparian forest. The findings offer land management strategies for mitigating waterborne N emissions in fast-urbanizing city clusters.
{"title":"Influence of future land use change on waterborne nitrogen emissions: A case study of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area","authors":"Chen Chen , Zongguo Wen , Ni Sheng , Qingbin Song","doi":"10.1016/j.jes.2026.01.034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jes.2026.01.034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land use changes reshape the generation and transport patterns of nitrogen (N) entering the water environment from both natural and anthropogenic activities, by altering the type and intensity of N-emitting activities and the retention effect on N in surface runoff that traverses the land. This study develops an integrated methodological framework that combines N flow analysis, geospatial analysis, land use change prediction, and nutrient transport simulation to analyze the spatial patterns of waterborne N emissions under various land use scenarios, considering different future land structures and the implementation of riparian buffers as artificial interventions. Using the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a case, we find that all land use scenarios in 2030 and 2040 involve the expansion of impervious land and the reduction of forest and water, with only the Ecological Conservation scenario resulting in a minimal loss of forest. Direct N emissions to water account for >85 % of the total waterborne N emissions, while indirect N emissions from diffuse sources exhibit an export rate of around 16 %. By 2040, the Ecological Conservation scenario preserves 511 km² more arable land compared to the Economic Development scenario, while also achieving a reduction of 870 t of N export. This benefit is particularly significant for highly urbanized cities. Riparian buffers are critical areas for reforestation with an estimated reduction of approximately 6.9 t N for every additional km² of riparian forest. The findings offer land management strategies for mitigating waterborne N emissions in fast-urbanizing city clusters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15788,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Sciences-china","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 104-115"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146189970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-03-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jes.2025.03.030
Huawei Yi, Yangyang Cui, Han Li, Guanghan Huang, Kaiyun Liu, Linzhen Qu, Jing Yan, Lei Nie, Yifeng Xue
Oil-fired construction machinery (OCM) is a major source of urban air pollutants and CO2 emissions, and electrification is a crucial pathway for improving air quality and achieving China's dual carbon goals; however, its feasibility has not been fully explored. This study uses data envelopment analysis and the analytic hierarchy process to establish a development potential index, covering technical efficiency, economic cost, application scenarios, and charging time and range, with an empirical analysis conducted in Beijing. The findings indicated the high feasibility of replacing OCM with electric alternatives, especially within the low-power range. Based on 2023 registered coding data, it is projected that by 2030, electrification could reduce regional average concentrations of CO, NOx, PM2.5 and VOCs by 12.2 % to 56.4 % and reduce CO2 by 11.7 % to 56.9 %. Owing to economic considerations, small- and medium-sized machinery are particularly feasible for electrification. Key recommendations include prioritizing the electrification of forklifts, lifting platforms, and small-sized machinery in high-emission areas, particularly in central urban districts. Policies such as carbon taxes, carbon markets, and performance grading systems are suggested to incentivize electrification, along with expanding high-emission restriction zones and improving energy infrastructure to support widespread electrification.
{"title":"Assessing the feasibility and environmental benefits of electrifying construction machinery in Beijing, China.","authors":"Huawei Yi, Yangyang Cui, Han Li, Guanghan Huang, Kaiyun Liu, Linzhen Qu, Jing Yan, Lei Nie, Yifeng Xue","doi":"10.1016/j.jes.2025.03.030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2025.03.030","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Oil-fired construction machinery (OCM) is a major source of urban air pollutants and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, and electrification is a crucial pathway for improving air quality and achieving China's dual carbon goals; however, its feasibility has not been fully explored. This study uses data envelopment analysis and the analytic hierarchy process to establish a development potential index, covering technical efficiency, economic cost, application scenarios, and charging time and range, with an empirical analysis conducted in Beijing. The findings indicated the high feasibility of replacing OCM with electric alternatives, especially within the low-power range. Based on 2023 registered coding data, it is projected that by 2030, electrification could reduce regional average concentrations of CO, NO<sub>x</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub> and VOCs by 12.2 % to 56.4 % and reduce CO<sub>2</sub> by 11.7 % to 56.9 %. Owing to economic considerations, small- and medium-sized machinery are particularly feasible for electrification. Key recommendations include prioritizing the electrification of forklifts, lifting platforms, and small-sized machinery in high-emission areas, particularly in central urban districts. Policies such as carbon taxes, carbon markets, and performance grading systems are suggested to incentivize electrification, along with expanding high-emission restriction zones and improving energy infrastructure to support widespread electrification.</p>","PeriodicalId":15788,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Environmental Sciences-china","volume":"159 ","pages":"374-382"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145175814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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