Bentonite and polymer-modified bentonites, as ubiquitous clay minerals in geological formations and widely utilized barrier materials in engineered systems, significantly influence the hydraulic properties of porous media due to their high swelling capacity and ultralow hydraulic conductivity (<i>k</i>). Accurate prediction of <i>k</i> is crucial not only for critical natural processes, such as rainfall infiltration, groundwater flow, and solute transport in subsurface aquifers, but also for engineering applications, such as contaminant containment, nuclear waste disposal, and CO<sub>2</sub> geological storage. However, existing predictive models often rely on empirical assumptions and non-physical fitting parameters. This study employs large-scale molecular dynamics simulations integrated with the original Kozeny-Carman (K-C) equation to predict <i>k</i> across a wide range of dry densities for both pure montmorillonite (MMT, <span data-altimg="/cms/asset/243d703d-e2b9-4930-b148-b995dc7148a6/jgrb70292-math-0001.png"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter="6" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex="1" jax="CHTML" role="application" sre-explorer- style="font-size: 103%; position: relative;" tabindex="0"><mjx-math aria-hidden="true" location="graphic/jgrb70292-math-0001.png"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msub data-semantic-children="0,1" data-semantic- data-semantic-role="greekletter" data-semantic-speech="rho Subscript d" data-semantic-type="subscript"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="2" data-semantic-role="greekletter" data-semantic-type="identifier"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style="vertical-align: -0.15em;"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="2" data-semantic-role="latinletter" data-semantic-type="identifier" size="s"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi></mjx-script></mjx-msub></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display="inline" unselectable="on"><math altimg="urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb70292:jgrb70292-math-0001" display="inline" location="graphic/jgrb70292-math-0001.png" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><semantics><mrow><msub data-semantic-="" data-semantic-children="0,1" data-semantic-role="greekletter" data-semantic-speech="rho Subscript d" data-semantic-type="subscript"><mi data-semantic-="" data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic-parent="2" data-semantic-role="greekletter" data-semantic-type="identifier">ρ</mi><mi data-semantic-="" data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic-parent="2" data-semantic-role="latinletter" data-semantic-type="identifier">d</mi></msub></mrow>${rho }_{d}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> = 134.6–1759.4 kg/m<sup>3</sup>) and carboxymethyl cellulose-modified MMT (CMC-MMT, <span data-altimg="/cms/asset/2e6e87d1-b2eb
膨润土和聚合物改性膨润土是地质地层中普遍存在的粘土矿物,也是工程系统中广泛使用的屏障材料,由于其具有较高的膨胀能力和超低的水导率(k),对多孔介质的水力性能有显著影响。k的准确预测不仅对关键的自然过程(如降雨渗透、地下水流动和地下含水层中的溶质运输)至关重要,而且对工程应用(如污染物遏制、核废料处理和二氧化碳地质储存)也至关重要。然而,现有的预测模型往往依赖于经验假设和非物理拟合参数。本研究采用大规模分子动力学模拟,结合原始的Kozeny-Carman (k - c)方程,预测了纯蒙脱土(MMT, ρd ${rho }_{d}$ = 134.6-1759.4 kg/m3)和羧甲基纤维素修饰的MMT (CMC-MMT, ρd ${rho }_{d}$ = 147.5-1550.7 kg/m3)在广泛干密度范围内的k。我们的方法从根本上挑战了传统的理解,即原始的K-C方程不适合粘土土壤:自由水孔隙率(ϕfreewater ${phi }_{text{free},text{water}}$),扭曲度(τ2 ${tau }^{2}$)和水可达表面积(S0)的分子尺度参数化在实验数据的五倍内产生预测。至关重要的是,k的减少被证明源于结合水固定,其中聚合物改性通过三种协同机制放大了这种效果:(a)增强的水吸附增厚结合层(减少18%的自由水${phi }_{text{free},text{water}}$)%–76%), (b) pore filling increases τ2${tau }^{2}$ by up to 6 times, and (c) elevated S0 further restricts flow pathways. This work establishes a physically rigorous framework for hydraulic conductivity prediction in clay-rich porous media, resolving long-standing controversies in clay hydraulics and offering insights applicable to both natural and engineered systems.
{"title":"Hydraulic Conductivity Prediction of Pristine and Polymer-Modified Bentonite-Rich Porous Media via Molecular Dynamics","authors":"Yixin Yang, Longlong Meng, Sheng Zhou, Pengfei Liu, Chi Zhang, Yunmin Chen, Bate Bate","doi":"10.1029/2025jb033456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jb033456","url":null,"abstract":"Bentonite and polymer-modified bentonites, as ubiquitous clay minerals in geological formations and widely utilized barrier materials in engineered systems, significantly influence the hydraulic properties of porous media due to their high swelling capacity and ultralow hydraulic conductivity (<i>k</i>). Accurate prediction of <i>k</i> is crucial not only for critical natural processes, such as rainfall infiltration, groundwater flow, and solute transport in subsurface aquifers, but also for engineering applications, such as contaminant containment, nuclear waste disposal, and CO<sub>2</sub> geological storage. However, existing predictive models often rely on empirical assumptions and non-physical fitting parameters. This study employs large-scale molecular dynamics simulations integrated with the original Kozeny-Carman (K-C) equation to predict <i>k</i> across a wide range of dry densities for both pure montmorillonite (MMT, <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/243d703d-e2b9-4930-b148-b995dc7148a6/jgrb70292-math-0001.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"6\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/jgrb70292-math-0001.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msub data-semantic-children=\"0,1\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"greekletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"rho Subscript d\" data-semantic-type=\"subscript\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"2\" data-semantic-role=\"greekletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\"vertical-align: -0.15em;\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"2\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\" size=\"s\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi></mjx-script></mjx-msub></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb70292:jgrb70292-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/jgrb70292-math-0001.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msub data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"0,1\" data-semantic-role=\"greekletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"rho Subscript d\" data-semantic-type=\"subscript\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic-parent=\"2\" data-semantic-role=\"greekletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\">ρ</mi><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic-parent=\"2\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\">d</mi></msub></mrow>${rho }_{d}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> = 134.6–1759.4 kg/m<sup>3</sup>) and carboxymethyl cellulose-modified MMT (CMC-MMT, <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/2e6e87d1-b2eb","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147507202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nicolas D. DeSalvio, Wenyuan Fan, Andrew J. Barbour, Jeanne L. Hardebeck
Earthquakes tend to cluster, developing into sequences driven by stress perturbations and transient fault-zone processes. Depending on the driving process, earthquake sequences show differing behaviors. This variability challenges our ability to observe or distinguish these driving processes in high resolution. Here we systematically identify seismicity bursts throughout southern California using new statistical methods and examine their causes with other independent geophysical observations. Seismicity bursts are defined as statistically significant seismicity rate anomalies. Our approach has the advantage of being data driven, depending on few earthquake occurrence assumptions. We find abundant seismicity bursts across southern California, most frequently occurring along the San Jacinto Fault and in the Salton Sea and Coso geothermal fields. These seismicity bursts are highly compact in space and time, often encompassed by a 5 km radius and have durations less than 10 hr. Many of the seismicity bursts have their largest earthquake near the beginning of the sequence, but the largest earthquake is usually not an obvious mainshock. We utilize a variety of independent geophysical data sets to analyze the characteristics of the seismicity bursts, finding that the seismicity bursts have low b-values, low spectral stress drops, and varied stress ratios compared to regional seismicity. These differences suggest that seismicity bursts are driven by transient processes acting frequently across fault networks.
{"title":"Compact Seismicity Bursts Have Different Characteristics From Regional Seismicity","authors":"Nicolas D. DeSalvio, Wenyuan Fan, Andrew J. Barbour, Jeanne L. Hardebeck","doi":"10.1029/2025jb032917","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jb032917","url":null,"abstract":"Earthquakes tend to cluster, developing into sequences driven by stress perturbations and transient fault-zone processes. Depending on the driving process, earthquake sequences show differing behaviors. This variability challenges our ability to observe or distinguish these driving processes in high resolution. Here we systematically identify seismicity bursts throughout southern California using new statistical methods and examine their causes with other independent geophysical observations. Seismicity bursts are defined as statistically significant seismicity rate anomalies. Our approach has the advantage of being data driven, depending on few earthquake occurrence assumptions. We find abundant seismicity bursts across southern California, most frequently occurring along the San Jacinto Fault and in the Salton Sea and Coso geothermal fields. These seismicity bursts are highly compact in space and time, often encompassed by a 5 km radius and have durations less than 10 hr. Many of the seismicity bursts have their largest earthquake near the beginning of the sequence, but the largest earthquake is usually not an obvious mainshock. We utilize a variety of independent geophysical data sets to analyze the characteristics of the seismicity bursts, finding that the seismicity bursts have low b-values, low spectral stress drops, and varied stress ratios compared to regional seismicity. These differences suggest that seismicity bursts are driven by transient processes acting frequently across fault networks.","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"86 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147507203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chenglin Gong, Yijie Zhu, Shiwen Xie, Daoyao Ge, Ronald J. Steel, Victorien Paumard, Beichen Chen, Dongwei Li
This study utilizes seismic, borehole, biostratigraphic, backstripped tectonic subsidence and U-Pb age data to investigate margin architectures and formative mechanisms of previously undocumented, wholesale retreat of the continental shelf, shelf-edge and slope. Basin-scale backstepping shelf-edge trajectories recognized in the Baiyun Sag of the northern South China Sea are 35–40 times longer than their well-documented counterparts created by relative sea-level rise, and are located between nannofossil zones N4 and N3 (P22) and calcareous nannofossil zones NN1 and NP25 (ca. 24.80 Ma). They witnessed a reverse transition in depositional environments from shallow-to deep-marine environments and a prominent increase in tectonic subsidence rate from 27 to 73 m/My to 110–211 m/My across 24.80 Ma timeline. This rapid tectonic subsidence and resultant backstepping shelf-edge trajectories immediately follow the termination of magmatic activity, as recorded by the uplift of Archean to Paleoproterozoic igneous basement (reported as zircon 207Pb/235U ages of 1971–3795 Ma) by South China Sea mantle upwelling underneath the hyperextended Baiyun Sag. Wholesale retreat of the entire Baiyun margin is, therefore, considered as geodynamic consequences of the elimination of asthenospheric mantle upwelling induced most likely by the southward jump of South China Sea spreading ridge. The spatiotemporal synchronicity of the termination of asthenospheric mantle upwelling to the forming age of backstepping shelf-edge trajectories suggests that the terminal age of South China Sea mantle upwelling can be better placed at 24.80 Ma, helping to eliminate the debate on the evolutionary timing of South China Sea mantle upwelling.
{"title":"Wholesale Retreat of the Continental Shelf, Shelf-Edge and Slope: Triggered by Southward Jump of South China Sea Spreading Ridge?","authors":"Chenglin Gong, Yijie Zhu, Shiwen Xie, Daoyao Ge, Ronald J. Steel, Victorien Paumard, Beichen Chen, Dongwei Li","doi":"10.1029/2026jb033889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026jb033889","url":null,"abstract":"This study utilizes seismic, borehole, biostratigraphic, backstripped tectonic subsidence and U-Pb age data to investigate margin architectures and formative mechanisms of previously undocumented, wholesale retreat of the continental shelf, shelf-edge and slope. Basin-scale backstepping shelf-edge trajectories recognized in the Baiyun Sag of the northern South China Sea are 35–40 times longer than their well-documented counterparts created by relative sea-level rise, and are located between nannofossil zones N4 and N3 (P22) and calcareous nannofossil zones NN1 and NP25 (ca. 24.80 Ma). They witnessed a reverse transition in depositional environments from shallow-to deep-marine environments and a prominent increase in tectonic subsidence rate from 27 to 73 m/My to 110–211 m/My across 24.80 Ma timeline. This rapid tectonic subsidence and resultant backstepping shelf-edge trajectories immediately follow the termination of magmatic activity, as recorded by the uplift of Archean to Paleoproterozoic igneous basement (reported as zircon <sup>207</sup>Pb/<sup>235</sup>U ages of 1971–3795 Ma) by South China Sea mantle upwelling underneath the hyperextended Baiyun Sag. Wholesale retreat of the entire Baiyun margin is, therefore, considered as geodynamic consequences of the elimination of asthenospheric mantle upwelling induced most likely by the southward jump of South China Sea spreading ridge. The spatiotemporal synchronicity of the termination of asthenospheric mantle upwelling to the forming age of backstepping shelf-edge trajectories suggests that the terminal age of South China Sea mantle upwelling can be better placed at 24.80 Ma, helping to eliminate the debate on the evolutionary timing of South China Sea mantle upwelling.","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"270 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147507220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Prior to its 2005 and 2018 eruptions Sierra Negra's caldera displayed decades-long inflation characterized by successive transient uplifts culminating in accelerating uplifts in the 1–2 years prior to each eruption. These observations motivated the question: can these transient uplifts be explained by internal dynamics of the magma system rather than ad-hoc changes in magma influx from below? To understand these transients, we develop dynamical models governing the coupled time evolution of magma transport, magma storage and associated crustal strain. Our models account for changes in the effective mechanical properties of the volcanic edifice due to damage manifest through earthquakes, and the resulting strain-softening behavior: a decline in stress with increasing strain. Our models assume that the damage increases as a function of crustal strain resulting from magma storage within a shallow reservoir. The strain rate is primarily controlled by magma influx driven by the fluid pressure gradient between the shallow reservoir and its deeper source. As the reservoir's volume increases due to the magma influx, the crust is deformed and damaged, lowering its effective mechanical properties and affecting its capacity to store magma. This mechanism allows us to simulate volcanic inflation with fluctuating rates matching key features of Sierra Negra's pre-2018 eruption uplift and seismicity patterns. Our study demonstrates that damage can exert top-down control over the magma system. It induces changes in the ascending magma flux resulting in deformation transients consistent with observations at Sierra Negra without the need to invoke ad-hoc changes in the magma supply rate.
{"title":"Dynamic Models of Magma Storage Within a Damaging, Strain-Softening Crust and Their Application to Sierra-Negra's Pre-Eruptive Inflation Pattern","authors":"D. Walwer, P. Lundgren","doi":"10.1029/2025jb032925","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jb032925","url":null,"abstract":"Prior to its 2005 and 2018 eruptions Sierra Negra's caldera displayed decades-long inflation characterized by successive transient uplifts culminating in accelerating uplifts in the 1–2 years prior to each eruption. These observations motivated the question: can these transient uplifts be explained by internal dynamics of the magma system rather than ad-hoc changes in magma influx from below? To understand these transients, we develop dynamical models governing the coupled time evolution of magma transport, magma storage and associated crustal strain. Our models account for changes in the effective mechanical properties of the volcanic edifice due to damage manifest through earthquakes, and the resulting strain-softening behavior: a decline in stress with increasing strain. Our models assume that the damage increases as a function of crustal strain resulting from magma storage within a shallow reservoir. The strain rate is primarily controlled by magma influx driven by the fluid pressure gradient between the shallow reservoir and its deeper source. As the reservoir's volume increases due to the magma influx, the crust is deformed and damaged, lowering its effective mechanical properties and affecting its capacity to store magma. This mechanism allows us to simulate volcanic inflation with fluctuating rates matching key features of Sierra Negra's pre-2018 eruption uplift and seismicity patterns. Our study demonstrates that damage can exert top-down control over the magma system. It induces changes in the ascending magma flux resulting in deformation transients consistent with observations at Sierra Negra without the need to invoke ad-hoc changes in the magma supply rate.","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147492740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Laëtitia Pantobe, Kristel Chanard, Arnaud Burtin, Pierre Sakic, Jean-Christophe Komorowski
La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano exhibits microseismic activity dominated by volcano-tectonic repeaters, mainly occurring in swarms clustered in a sub-vertical conduit beneath the Tarissan acid lake (TAS) at depths less than 800 m. Following the April 2018 earthquake (Mlv 4.1), which likely damaged the dome, swarms intensified and show seasonal modulation with more events in October–November. We analyze 5 years of daily seismicity, GNSS-derived deformation, and hydrological data to investigate controls on this modulation. We enhance groundwater level resolution by modeling TAS level from daily rainfall. To isolate local seasonal deformation, we compute Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) baselines and derive regional strain time series. Using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis, we identify annual and sub-annual oscillations in seismicity, groundwater, and vertical strain, highlighting hydrological forcing. Elastic deformation from surface load cannot explain observed strain or stress at depth. In contrast, a poroelastic model calibrated with GNSS strain and lake-level variations shows pore pressure fluctuations modulate Coulomb stresses by several kPa at microseismic depths. Stress amplitude and phase match seismicity peaks, supporting pore pressure as the main driver of seasonal modulation. Effective elastic moduli from geodetic data are an order of magnitude lower than laboratory rock values, consistent with a fractured dome. Our multi-parameter time series analysis separates hydrologically driven background seismicity from residual signals, potentially linked to thermoelastic effects or magmatic fluid migration, offering a framework to detect departures from external forcing and improve monitoring of hydrothermal unrest and phreatic eruption precursors.
La soufri de Guadeloupe火山表现出以火山构造重复体为主的微地震活动,主要发生在深度小于800 m的Tarissan酸湖(TAS)下的亚垂直管道中。在2018年4月的地震(Mlv 4.1)可能损坏了穹顶之后,蜂群加剧,并在10月至11月出现了更多的季节性变化。我们分析了5年来的每日地震活动、gnss导出的变形和水文数据,以调查对这种调制的控制。我们利用日降雨量模拟TAS水位,提高了地下水位分辨率。为了隔离局部季节变形,我们计算了全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)基线,并推导了区域应变时间序列。利用多通道奇异谱分析,我们确定了地震活动性、地下水和垂直应变的年和次年振荡,突出了水文强迫。表面载荷产生的弹性变形不能解释在深度处观察到的应变或应力。相比之下,基于GNSS应变和湖泊水位变化校准的孔隙弹性模型显示,微地震深度下孔隙压力波动对库仑应力的调节作用为几kPa。应力振幅和相位与地震活动性峰值相匹配,支持孔隙压力作为季节性调制的主要驱动因素。大地测量数据的有效弹性模量比实验室岩石值低一个数量级,与破裂的圆顶一致。我们的多参数时间序列分析将水文驱动的背景地震活动从可能与热弹性效应或岩浆流体迁移有关的残余信号中分离出来,提供了一个框架来检测与外部强迫的偏离,并改进对热液动荡和潜水喷发前兆的监测。
{"title":"Integrating GNSS and Hydrological Data to Understand Seasonal Microseismicity at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe","authors":"Laëtitia Pantobe, Kristel Chanard, Arnaud Burtin, Pierre Sakic, Jean-Christophe Komorowski","doi":"10.1029/2025jb033078","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jb033078","url":null,"abstract":"La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano exhibits microseismic activity dominated by volcano-tectonic repeaters, mainly occurring in swarms clustered in a sub-vertical conduit beneath the Tarissan acid lake (TAS) at depths less than 800 m. Following the April 2018 earthquake (Mlv 4.1), which likely damaged the dome, swarms intensified and show seasonal modulation with more events in October–November. We analyze 5 years of daily seismicity, GNSS-derived deformation, and hydrological data to investigate controls on this modulation. We enhance groundwater level resolution by modeling TAS level from daily rainfall. To isolate local seasonal deformation, we compute Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) baselines and derive regional strain time series. Using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis, we identify annual and sub-annual oscillations in seismicity, groundwater, and vertical strain, highlighting hydrological forcing. Elastic deformation from surface load cannot explain observed strain or stress at depth. In contrast, a poroelastic model calibrated with GNSS strain and lake-level variations shows pore pressure fluctuations modulate Coulomb stresses by several kPa at microseismic depths. Stress amplitude and phase match seismicity peaks, supporting pore pressure as the main driver of seasonal modulation. Effective elastic moduli from geodetic data are an order of magnitude lower than laboratory rock values, consistent with a fractured dome. Our multi-parameter time series analysis separates hydrologically driven background seismicity from residual signals, potentially linked to thermoelastic effects or magmatic fluid migration, offering a framework to detect departures from external forcing and improve monitoring of hydrothermal unrest and phreatic eruption precursors.","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147507221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Sadler, P. Persaud, J. Pulliam, E. Sandvol, J. Gaherty, M. S. Steckler, S. H. Akhter
The Bengal Basin is a sedimentary basin in the northeast region of the Indian subcontinent. It lies between the Indian Shield and the Indo-Burma Ranges, where the India plate is obliquely subducting under the Burma microplate. Multiple interpretations of the nature of the crust here have been proposed. Using a compilation of data from 40 regional broadband stations, we determine the crustal structure by waveform modeling receiver functions and autocorrelograms. We obtain useful velocity models for 30 stations with 2–3 sedimentary units overlying the crystalline crust. The sedimentary section is up to 16.4 km thick with depths increasing from northwest to southeast. The first two sedimentary units have mean thicknesses of ∼3.2 and ∼6.5 km and Vp values of ∼2.8 and ∼4.9 km/s, respectively. Below these units, large negative Ps conversions are present, which we interpret as two low-velocity zones in the deepest portion of the Bengal Basin, with average Vp and Vp/Vs values of 4.2 km/s and 1.90. The low seismic velocities could be a result of fluids trapped in the deepest sedimentary unit. Below the sedimentary section the thickness of the crystalline crust varies from 12.9 to 34 km, thinning from northwest to southeast in the opposite general trend of basin depth, with an average Vp of 6.7 km/s. The crystalline crust is thinner and faster than typical continental crust and thicker and slower than typical oceanic crust. We suggest the region has extended continental crust that was altered during the Cretaceous rifting that created the Bengal Basin.
{"title":"Nature of the Crust in the Superdeep Bengal Basin Using Teleseismic P Waves","authors":"B. Sadler, P. Persaud, J. Pulliam, E. Sandvol, J. Gaherty, M. S. Steckler, S. H. Akhter","doi":"10.1029/2025jb031292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jb031292","url":null,"abstract":"The Bengal Basin is a sedimentary basin in the northeast region of the Indian subcontinent. It lies between the Indian Shield and the Indo-Burma Ranges, where the India plate is obliquely subducting under the Burma microplate. Multiple interpretations of the nature of the crust here have been proposed. Using a compilation of data from 40 regional broadband stations, we determine the crustal structure by waveform modeling receiver functions and autocorrelograms. We obtain useful velocity models for 30 stations with 2–3 sedimentary units overlying the crystalline crust. The sedimentary section is up to 16.4 km thick with depths increasing from northwest to southeast. The first two sedimentary units have mean thicknesses of ∼3.2 and ∼6.5 km and Vp values of ∼2.8 and ∼4.9 km/s, respectively. Below these units, large negative Ps conversions are present, which we interpret as two low-velocity zones in the deepest portion of the Bengal Basin, with average Vp and Vp/Vs values of 4.2 km/s and 1.90. The low seismic velocities could be a result of fluids trapped in the deepest sedimentary unit. Below the sedimentary section the thickness of the crystalline crust varies from 12.9 to 34 km, thinning from northwest to southeast in the opposite general trend of basin depth, with an average Vp of 6.7 km/s. The crystalline crust is thinner and faster than typical continental crust and thicker and slower than typical oceanic crust. We suggest the region has extended continental crust that was altered during the Cretaceous rifting that created the Bengal Basin.","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147478663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dynamic earthquake source inversion consists of inferring frictional parameters and initial stress on a fault consistent with recorded seismological and geodetic data and with dynamic earthquake rupture models. In a Bayesian inversion approach, the nonlinear relationship between model parameters and data requires a computationally demanding Monte Carlo (MC) approach. As the computational cost of the MC method grows exponentially with the number of parameters, dynamic inversion of large earthquakes, involving hundreds to thousands parameters, is hindered by slow convergence and sampling issues. We introduce a novel multi-stage approach for dynamic source inversion. We divide the earthquake source into a hierarchical set of temporal and spatial stages. As each stage involves only a limited number of model parameters, their inversion converges faster. Stages are interdependent: the inversion results of an earlier stage are a prior for the next stage inversion. We use Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks to transfer the prior information between inversion stages. As proof-of-concept, we apply a two-stage version of our dynamic source inversion approach to a simulated earthquake scenario generated by 2.5D dynamic rupture modeling. Compared to direct MC inversion, the two-stage approach achieves substantial improvements in relevant performance metrics, including integrated autocorrelation time, and a large increase in stability across several independent runs. Further application of the two-stage Bayesian inversion method will allow for expanded dynamic modeling studies of large earthquakes, paving the way toward a better understanding of earthquake physics.
{"title":"Dynamic Earthquake Source Inversion With Generative Adversarial Network Priors","authors":"Jan Premus, Jean Paul Ampuero","doi":"10.1029/2025jb033232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jb033232","url":null,"abstract":"Dynamic earthquake source inversion consists of inferring frictional parameters and initial stress on a fault consistent with recorded seismological and geodetic data and with dynamic earthquake rupture models. In a Bayesian inversion approach, the nonlinear relationship between model parameters and data requires a computationally demanding Monte Carlo (MC) approach. As the computational cost of the MC method grows exponentially with the number of parameters, dynamic inversion of large earthquakes, involving hundreds to thousands parameters, is hindered by slow convergence and sampling issues. We introduce a novel multi-stage approach for dynamic source inversion. We divide the earthquake source into a hierarchical set of temporal and spatial stages. As each stage involves only a limited number of model parameters, their inversion converges faster. Stages are interdependent: the inversion results of an earlier stage are a prior for the next stage inversion. We use Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks to transfer the prior information between inversion stages. As proof-of-concept, we apply a two-stage version of our dynamic source inversion approach to a simulated earthquake scenario generated by 2.5D dynamic rupture modeling. Compared to direct MC inversion, the two-stage approach achieves substantial improvements in relevant performance metrics, including integrated autocorrelation time, and a large increase in stability across several independent runs. Further application of the two-stage Bayesian inversion method will allow for expanded dynamic modeling studies of large earthquakes, paving the way toward a better understanding of earthquake physics.","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147489714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lei Liu, Zhangjun Li, Yang Wang, Yiduo Liu, Yujiang Li, Qin Zhao, Guoqing Zhang, Jinjiang Zhang, Lingyun Ji
The southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) plays a pivotal role in accommodating intra-continental deformation driven by the ongoing India-Eurasia convergence. However, its contemporary surface vertical motions and the underlying geodynamic processes remain highly debated. Previous studies have proposed that spatial variations in lithospheric rheology govern intracontinental deformation and orogenesis. Here, based on a 2D viscoelastic model and geodetic observations, we infer the laterally varying lower crustal viscosity across the SETP, where is characterized by lithospheric heterogeneity, as indicated by seismic velocity and electrical resistivity anomalies. The optimal model reveals the lower crustal viscosities of 1020−21 and 1018−19 Pa s underneath the Songpan-Ganzi Block and the Xiaojiang region, respectively, and exceeding 1021 Pa s underneath the central Yunnan Block and South China. Such a heterogeneous lower crustal rheological structure can explain the geodetically observed regionally variable surface vertical motions. Particularly, it reconciles the apparent inconsistency related to surface uplift in the absence of upper crustal horizontal shortening across the SETP. Our findings highlight the role of lower crustal viscoelastic deformation in modulating surface vertical uplift in the absence of significant upper crustal shortening, and demonstrate that the rheologically weak lower crust complements existing models, including tectonic extrusion and gravitational collapse, to accommodate contemporary crustal motions in the SETP. Furthermore, we argue that lithospheric rheological heterogeneities play an essential role in controlling surface deformation within the context of continental extrusion.
青藏高原东南部(SETP)在容纳由印度-欧亚大陆辐合驱动的大陆内变形中起着关键作用。然而,它的当代表面垂直运动和潜在的地球动力学过程仍然存在高度争议。以往的研究表明,岩石圈流变的空间变化控制着陆内变形和造山作用。在此,基于二维粘弹性模型和大地测量观测,我们推断出SETP下部地壳粘度的横向变化,其特征是岩石圈非均质性,如地震速度和电阻率异常所示。最优模型显示,松潘-甘孜地块和小江地区地壳黏度分别为1020 ~ 21和1018 ~ 19 Pa s,云南中部地块和华南地区地壳黏度超过1021 Pa s。这种不均匀的下地壳流变结构可以解释大地测量观测到的区域变化的地表垂直运动。特别是,它调和了在整个SETP没有上地壳水平缩短的情况下与地表隆起有关的明显不一致。我们的研究结果强调了在没有明显上地壳缩短的情况下,下地壳粘弹性变形在调节地表垂直隆升中的作用,并表明流变弱的下地壳补充了现有的模型,包括构造挤压和重力崩塌,以适应SETP中当代的地壳运动。此外,我们认为岩石圈流变非均质性在控制大陆挤压作用下的地表变形方面起着重要作用。
{"title":"Contribution of the Rheologically Weak Lower Crust to Contemporary Crustal Motions in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, China","authors":"Lei Liu, Zhangjun Li, Yang Wang, Yiduo Liu, Yujiang Li, Qin Zhao, Guoqing Zhang, Jinjiang Zhang, Lingyun Ji","doi":"10.1029/2025jb031640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jb031640","url":null,"abstract":"The southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) plays a pivotal role in accommodating intra-continental deformation driven by the ongoing India-Eurasia convergence. However, its contemporary surface vertical motions and the underlying geodynamic processes remain highly debated. Previous studies have proposed that spatial variations in lithospheric rheology govern intracontinental deformation and orogenesis. Here, based on a 2D viscoelastic model and geodetic observations, we infer the laterally varying lower crustal viscosity across the SETP, where is characterized by lithospheric heterogeneity, as indicated by seismic velocity and electrical resistivity anomalies. The optimal model reveals the lower crustal viscosities of 10<sup>20−21</sup> and 10<sup>18−19</sup> Pa s underneath the Songpan-Ganzi Block and the Xiaojiang region, respectively, and exceeding 10<sup>21</sup> Pa s underneath the central Yunnan Block and South China. Such a heterogeneous lower crustal rheological structure can explain the geodetically observed regionally variable surface vertical motions. Particularly, it reconciles the apparent inconsistency related to surface uplift in the absence of upper crustal horizontal shortening across the SETP. Our findings highlight the role of lower crustal viscoelastic deformation in modulating surface vertical uplift in the absence of significant upper crustal shortening, and demonstrate that the rheologically weak lower crust complements existing models, including tectonic extrusion and gravitational collapse, to accommodate contemporary crustal motions in the SETP. Furthermore, we argue that lithospheric rheological heterogeneities play an essential role in controlling surface deformation within the context of continental extrusion.","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147478750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Saike Deng, Bin Cheng, Yunpeng Dong, Zhao Yang, Dapeng Zhao
As a critical boundary zone of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP), the Western Qinling is key to understanding the deformation mechanism responsible for the plateau's northeastward expansion. In this work, we perform shear-wave splitting (SWS) measurements using teleseismic waveforms recorded by a dense linear seismic array traversing this region. Our results provide new information on small-scale variations in seismic anisotropy and lithospheric deformation patterns, which can be used to constrain the deformation mechanisms. The dominant WNW-ESE fast polarization direction aligns with surface fault strikes and crustal deformation, supporting vertically coherent crust-mantle deformation. Crucially, we identify two distinct two-layer anisotropy structures: one beneath the southern Western Qinling and the other near the Western Qinling Fault (WQLF) and the Shangdan Fault Zone (SDF). The southern region is characterized by NW-oriented lithospheric deformation in the upper layer and E-W-oriented asthenospheric flow in the lower layer. Beneath the WQLF and SDF, the upper layer exhibits ENE-oriented anisotropy, attributed to the combined effects of fossil anisotropy preserved within the Mesozoic ductile shear zone and Cenozoic modification associated with the northeastward expansion of the Tibetan Plateau, whereas the lower layer shows WNW-oriented deformation involving both the lithospheric mantle and the asthenosphere. Combined with previous observations, our results indicate that vertically coherent deformation dominated the mid-late Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the NETP. In light of geochronological constraints and the lateral variations in the deformation, we infer that the lateral extrusion likely dominated the early stage of plateau expansion.
{"title":"Lithospheric Deformation of the Western Qinling Revealed by Shear-Wave Splitting: Insights Into Northeastward Expansion of the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Saike Deng, Bin Cheng, Yunpeng Dong, Zhao Yang, Dapeng Zhao","doi":"10.1029/2025jb032623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jb032623","url":null,"abstract":"As a critical boundary zone of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP), the Western Qinling is key to understanding the deformation mechanism responsible for the plateau's northeastward expansion. In this work, we perform shear-wave splitting (SWS) measurements using teleseismic waveforms recorded by a dense linear seismic array traversing this region. Our results provide new information on small-scale variations in seismic anisotropy and lithospheric deformation patterns, which can be used to constrain the deformation mechanisms. The dominant WNW-ESE fast polarization direction aligns with surface fault strikes and crustal deformation, supporting vertically coherent crust-mantle deformation. Crucially, we identify two distinct two-layer anisotropy structures: one beneath the southern Western Qinling and the other near the Western Qinling Fault (WQLF) and the Shangdan Fault Zone (SDF). The southern region is characterized by NW-oriented lithospheric deformation in the upper layer and E-W-oriented asthenospheric flow in the lower layer. Beneath the WQLF and SDF, the upper layer exhibits ENE-oriented anisotropy, attributed to the combined effects of fossil anisotropy preserved within the Mesozoic ductile shear zone and Cenozoic modification associated with the northeastward expansion of the Tibetan Plateau, whereas the lower layer shows WNW-oriented deformation involving both the lithospheric mantle and the asthenosphere. Combined with previous observations, our results indicate that vertically coherent deformation dominated the mid-late Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the NETP. In light of geochronological constraints and the lateral variations in the deformation, we infer that the lateral extrusion likely dominated the early stage of plateau expansion.","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147466084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As spherical shell mantle convection models become increasingly commonplace, understanding how plates are generated has raised the issue of how to recognize whether rigid plates are present in model output. Tectonocists have long recognized that intraplate regions are not rigid without exception. Specifically, lithospheric deformation, widely evident on the continents, also occurs within oceanic regions and additionally results in tectonic plate boundaries having varying widths. These, non-rigid, diffuse regions comprise roughly 15% of the terrestrial surface and identification of their analogs in models is an important step in recognizing progress on the goal of modeling plate generation. We describe a new plate detection tool, platerecipy, that utilizes the Random Walker segmentation algorithm to identify candidate plates in both mantle convection model output and global geophysical data sets. The method produces a set of probabilities for each surface data point that can be used to both assess confidence in the association of each location with a distinct rigid plate, and identify diffuse regions across the surface. Verification of the rigidity of each region identified as a distinct plate can be obtained by inverting the associated data for the candidate plate's Euler vector. We demonstrate the method's sensitivity to the three controlling parameters used by platerecipy's algorithm and how the method can be used to determine the Euler vectors of plates identified in a mantle convection model. We also present promising results found by inverting for the Euler vectors of the Earth's major plates through applying platerecipy to a global strain-rate field.
{"title":"A Random Walker Algorithm for Plate Boundary Detection in Spherical Mantle Convection Models and Global Geophysical Data Sets: Application to Euler Vector Determination","authors":"P. Javaheri, J. P. Lowman","doi":"10.1029/2025jb032259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jb032259","url":null,"abstract":"As spherical shell mantle convection models become increasingly commonplace, understanding how plates are generated has raised the issue of how to recognize whether rigid plates are present in model output. Tectonocists have long recognized that intraplate regions are not rigid without exception. Specifically, lithospheric deformation, widely evident on the continents, also occurs within oceanic regions and additionally results in tectonic plate boundaries having varying widths. These, non-rigid, diffuse regions comprise roughly 15% of the terrestrial surface and identification of their analogs in models is an important step in recognizing progress on the goal of modeling plate generation. We describe a new plate detection tool, <span style=\"font-family:monospace\">platerecipy</span>, that utilizes the Random Walker segmentation algorithm to identify candidate plates in both mantle convection model output and global geophysical data sets. The method produces a set of probabilities for each surface data point that can be used to both assess confidence in the association of each location with a distinct rigid plate, and identify diffuse regions across the surface. Verification of the rigidity of each region identified as a distinct plate can be obtained by inverting the associated data for the candidate plate's Euler vector. We demonstrate the method's sensitivity to the three controlling parameters used by <span style=\"font-family:monospace\">platerecipy</span>'s algorithm and how the method can be used to determine the Euler vectors of plates identified in a mantle convection model. We also present promising results found by inverting for the Euler vectors of the Earth's major plates through applying <span style=\"font-family:monospace\">platerecipy</span> to a global strain-rate field.","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147454712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}