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In Situ Microscale Shear Failure Mechanism in Hot Dry Rock Under Thermal Cycling 热循环作用下干热岩石的原位微尺度剪切破坏机制
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB033304
Bowen Liu, Cunbao Li, Shixin Zhang, Jianjun Hu, Jie Liu, Biao Li, Heping Xie

Induced shear failure is key for enhancing hot dry rock (HDR) resource exploitation, aiming to creating an extensive fracture network. Although the macroscopic shear behavior of HDR has been extensively investigated, its microscopic shear failure mechanisms remain unclear. In this study, microscale mode II shear fracture experiments were performed for the first time under various thermal cycling. Micro-scale double-edge notched cube specimens were fabricated from primary minerals and interfaces using micro-machining and subjected to in situ shear tests under a scanning electron microscope. The microscopic shear failure mechanisms and fracture parameters of the minerals and interfaces were investigated. The results showed that multiple thermal cycles reduced macroscopic shear strength by initiating thermal cracks rather than by reducing the strength of the microscale minerals. All three minerals exhibited L-shaped crack propagation below 300°C, with shear initiation and tensile failure. Biotite failed progressively, whereas feldspar and quartz failed catastrophically. High temperatures and multiple thermal cycles caused thermal voids and complex crack paths in feldspar and quartz, whereas biotite exhibited fiber-like plastic slip bands without thermal cracking. The orientation and strength of the mineral interfaces affected crack deflection and branching. Energy was dissipated by interlayer plastic slip in biotite and by micro-crack friction and slip in quartz and feldspar. The microscopic mode II fracture toughness and critical energy release rate were 0.5–3.3 MPa·m0.5 and 0.01–0.11 kJ/m2, respectively. This research provides novel insights into the microscale shear failure of HDR and a critical micromechanical basis for multiscale fracture modeling and macroscopic shear failure analysis.

诱导剪切破坏是加强干热岩资源开发的关键,旨在形成一个广泛的裂缝网络。虽然HDR的宏观剪切行为已被广泛研究,但其微观剪切破坏机制尚不清楚。本研究首次进行了多种热循环条件下的微尺度II型剪切断裂实验。以原生矿物和界面为材料,采用微加工方法制备了微尺度双面缺口立方体试样,并在扫描电镜下进行了原位剪切试验。研究了矿物和界面的细观剪切破坏机制和断裂参数。结果表明,多次热循环对宏观抗剪强度的降低不是通过降低微观尺度矿物的强度,而是通过引发热裂缝。3种矿物在300℃以下均表现为l型裂纹扩展,均以剪切起裂和拉伸破坏为主。黑云母逐渐破坏,而长石和石英则灾难性地破坏。高温和多次热循环导致长石和石英产生热空洞和复杂的裂纹路径,而黑云母则表现出纤维状的塑料滑移带,没有热裂纹。矿物界面的取向和强度影响裂纹的偏转和分支。黑云母的层间塑性滑移和石英、长石的微裂纹摩擦滑移耗散了能量。微观II型断裂韧性和临界能量释放率分别为0.5 ~ 3.3 MPa·m0.5和0.01 ~ 0.11 kJ/m2。该研究为HDR的微尺度剪切破坏提供了新的认识,为多尺度断裂建模和宏观剪切破坏分析提供了重要的微观力学基础。
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引用次数: 0
Permeability Architecture at the Base of the Seismogenic Zone: Experimental Studies on Cataclasite- and Pseudotachylyte-Bearing Mylonitic Rocks Along the Red River Fault, China 发震带基底渗透率结构:红河断裂带含碎裂岩和含伪细粒岩糜棱岩的实验研究
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB031958
Debao Liang, Qingbao Duan, Jianye Chen, Jinyu Chen

Fluid transport properties at the base of the seismogenic zone exert a critical control on fault strength, slip behavior, and fluid circulation. However, quantitative constraints on permeability in deep fault rocks remain limited. We present new laboratory measurements of permeability, porosity, and specific storage on cataclasite- and pseudotachylyte-bearing mylonitic rocks along the Red River Fault (RRF), China. Experiments conducted at effective pressures up to 165 MPa reveal systematically low permeabilities, with mylonitized cataclasites and pseudotachylyte-bearing rocks exhibiting the lowest values (10−22–10−21 m2), while mylonites display relatively higher permeabilities, up to 10−19 m2. A key finding is the pronounced permeability anisotropy, where permeability parallel to foliation is up to two orders of magnitude greater than perpendicular values. This anisotropy reflects the microstructural alignment of phyllosilicate minerals and cavitation bands, which provides interconnected flow pathways along foliation while impeding cross-foliation transport. The hydraulic architecture of the RRF at the base of the seismogenic zone is thus characterized by overall low permeabilities with fluid flow facilitated along mylonitic foliation. Such fabric-controlled anisotropy persists even under mid-crustal pressure conditions, indicating that fault zones at the base of seismogenic depths can retain directional fluid pathways despite overall low permeabilities. Our results provide critical constraints on the hydraulic architecture of the RRF and offer broader insights into the role of anisotropy in controlling fluid flow and deformation at the base of the seismogenic zone.

孕震带底部的流体输运性质对断层强度、滑动行为和流体循环起着重要的控制作用。然而,对深部断层岩渗透率的定量限制仍然有限。我们介绍了中国红河断层(RRF)沿线含碎裂岩和含假粗灰岩的糜棱岩的渗透率、孔隙度和特定存储的新实验室测量结果。在高达165 MPa的有效压力下进行的实验显示,孔隙渗透率普遍较低,糜棱岩化碎裂岩和含伪玄武岩的渗透率最低(10−22 ~ 10−21 m2),糜棱岩的渗透率相对较高,可达10−19 m2。一个关键的发现是明显的渗透率各向异性,其中平行于叶理的渗透率比垂直的值大两个数量级。这种各向异性反映了层状硅酸盐矿物的微观结构取向和空化带,这提供了沿片理相互连接的流动通道,同时阻碍了跨片理的运输。因此,在发震带底部的RRF的水力结构具有整体低渗透率的特点,流体沿糜棱岩面理流动方便。即使在中地壳压力条件下,这种构造控制的各向异性仍然存在,这表明在发震深度底部的断裂带,尽管整体渗透率很低,但仍能保持定向流体通道。我们的研究结果为RRF的水力结构提供了关键的约束条件,并为各向异性在控制孕震带底部流体流动和变形方面的作用提供了更广泛的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Crustal Structure Across the Okavango Rift, Botswana: The SEISORZ Wide-Angle Seismic Experiment 博茨瓦纳奥卡万戈裂谷的地壳结构:SEISORZ广角地震实验
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB032322
J. Pablo Canales, Lucky Moffat, Kebabonye Laletsang, Daniel Lizarralde, Steven Harder, Galen Kaip, Estella A. Atekwana, Motsoptse P. Modisi

The Okavango Rift Zone (ORZ) is an incipient continental rift in Botswana at the terminus of the Southwestern Branch of the East African Rift System. The lack of syn-rift magmatism and tectonic processes overprinting pre-rift structures provide an opportunity to investigate incipient-stage rift processes and the role of pre-existing structures in rift initiation and strain localization. We present SEISORZ, a ∼450-km-long wide-angle seismic transect across the ORZ and neighboring tectonic terranes. A 2.5-D VP tomographic inversion reveals crustal thinning within a ∼130-km-wide section of the Damara Belt hosting the ORZ where Moho depth is 38.7 ± 3.4 km, shallower than in other Damara Belt terranes (46.3 ± 1.4 km) and the Kalahari Craton (45.6 ± 2.0 km). Mantle VP is consistent with ultramafic lithologies without evidence for metasomatism, partial melt, or elevated temperatures. Crustal VP is variable but consistent with geological information and with lower-crustal mafic lithologies. However, beneath the rifting region, the model shows low crustal velocities (ΔVP = −0.26 ± 0.05 km/s) that we interpret as damage from rift-related faulting and deformation, and to a lesser extent elevated temperatures possibly from excess radiogenic heat production. Upper crustal heterogeneity correlates with known and newly detected intra-rift faults, suggesting that pre-existing structures promoted strain localization and establishment of the rift border fault system. Collectively, all these factors point to a rheologically weak section in the Ghanzi-Chobe zone which is more susceptible to deformation in response to far-field stresses than neighboring terranes, explaining why incipient rifting is localizing there and not across any other of the terranes that compose the Damara Belt.

奥卡万戈裂谷带(ORZ)是东非裂谷系西南分支末端博茨瓦纳的一个早期大陆裂谷。同裂谷岩浆活动的缺乏和覆盖前裂谷构造的构造过程为研究早期裂谷过程和先存构造在裂谷起裂和应变局部化中的作用提供了机会。我们提出了SEISORZ,一个横跨ORZ和邻近构造地块的约450公里长的广角地震样带。2.5维VP层析成像反演显示,在拥有ORZ的达马拉带约130公里宽的区域内,地壳变薄,莫霍深度为38.7±3.4 km,比其他达马拉带地体(46.3±1.4 km)和卡拉哈里克拉通(45.6±2.0 km)浅。地幔VP与超镁铁质岩性一致,没有交代、部分熔融或温度升高的证据。地壳VP是可变的,但与地质信息和下地壳基性岩性一致。然而,在裂谷区域下方,模型显示出较低的地壳速度(ΔVP = - 0.26±0.05 km/s),我们将其解释为与裂谷相关的断裂和变形造成的损害,并且在较小程度上可能由过量的放射性成因热产生引起的温度升高。上地壳非均质性与已知和新发现的裂谷内断裂相关,表明已有构造促进了应变局部化和裂谷边界断裂系统的建立。总的来说,所有这些因素都指向ganzi - chobe带流变学薄弱的部分,该部分比邻近的地体更容易受到远场应力的影响,这就解释了为什么早期的裂谷作用局限于此,而不是在构成达马拉带的任何其他地体上。
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引用次数: 0
The Magmatic-Hydrothermal System of the Three Sisters Volcanic Cluster, Oregon, Imaged From Field Gravity Measurements 俄勒冈州三姐妹火山群的岩浆-热液系统,来自野外重力测量的图像
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB031886
Hélène Le Mével, Nathan L. Andersen, Annika E. Dechert, Josef Dufek
<p>From 2019 to 2024, gravity surveys were conducted at the Three Sisters volcanic cluster (TSVC), measuring 246 gravity sites using a spring relative gravimeter. We calculated the residual Bouguer anomaly and identified three main zones with negative anomalies, ranging from −4 to −8 mGal, located southwest and west of South Sister, within an area that has been uplifting for the past two decades. After inversion, we obtain a 3D density model of the subsurface and identify low-density bodies extending from the surface down to 3 km. We estimate a total of 15 k<span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msup> <mi>m</mi> <mn>3</mn> </msup> </mrow> <annotation> ${mathrm{m}}^{3}$</annotation> </semantics></math> of crustal bodies with density close to 2 g/<span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msup> <mtext>cm</mtext> <mn>3</mn> </msup> </mrow> <annotation> ${text{cm}}^{3}$</annotation> </semantics></math> that could store up to <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mo>∼</mo> </mrow> <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation> </semantics></math>5 k<span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msup> <mi>m</mi> <mn>3</mn> </msup> </mrow> <annotation> ${mathrm{m}}^{3}$</annotation> </semantics></math> of water, forming an extensive hydrothermal system beneath the TSVC. We explore the possible combinations of melt compositions and temperatures that could create a bulk density close to our reference crustal density (2.5 g/<span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <msup> <mtext>cm</mtext> <mn>3</mn> </msup> </mrow> <annotation> ${text{cm}}^{3}$</annotation> </semantics></math>) using MELTS thermodynamic simulations. Our results indicate that a magmatic mush with as little as 15% partial melt of bulk rhyolitic composition or as much as 52%–57% partial melt of a bulk dacitic composition could be stored in a magmatic system under TSVC without generating a detectable gravity anomaly. Episodic magma injections at the base of the magmatic system, such as the 1998–2000 intrusion at <span></span><math> <semantics> <mrow> <mo>∼</mo> </mrow> <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation> </semantics></math>6 k
2019年至2024年,在三姐妹火山群(TSVC)进行了重力调查,使用弹簧相对重力仪测量了246个重力点。我们计算了残余布格异常,并确定了三个主要的负异常带,范围从- 4到- 8 mGal,位于South Sister的西南和西部,在过去20年里一直在抬升。反演后得到地下三维密度模型,识别出从地表向下延伸至3 km的低密度体。我们估计总共有15 km3${ mathm {m}}^{3}$的地壳体,密度接近2 g/cm3${text{cm}}^{3}$,可以储存高达$ ${sim} $5 km3${ mathm {m}}^{3}$的水,在TSVC下面形成一个广泛的热液系统。我们探索了熔体成分和温度的可能组合,这些组合可以产生接近参考地壳密度(2.5 g/cm3)的体积密度。结果表明,在TSVC作用下,岩浆体系中即使存在少量15%的流纹岩部分熔体或高达52% ~ 57%的英英质部分熔体,也不会产生可探测到的重力异常。在岩浆系统底部的间歇岩浆注入,如1998-2000年在6公里深度的侵入,会给热液系统带来热量和气体,同时在岩浆泥中保持较低的熔融比例,正如在其他喀斯喀特火山所拍摄的那样。
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引用次数: 0
Geothermal Reservoir Characterization at Utah FORGE Using DAS Microseismic Imaging 利用DAS微地震成像技术表征Utah FORGE地热储层
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB032603
Yuanyuan Ma, Jonathan Ajo-Franklin, Michal Chamarczuk, Xiaoyu Zhu, Jeremy Patterson, Ismael Vera Rodriguez, David Podrasky, Thomas Coleman, Carlos Maldaner, Aleta Finnila

Accurate characterization of fracture geometry and reservoir structure is essential for the successful design and development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Conventional surface seismic imaging often lacks the resolution to delineate hydraulic fractures at depth due to strong attenuation and limited source frequency. This study presents high-resolution imaging of the Utah FORGE site using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) recorded microseismic data during the [16A(78)-32] injection activities. We developed an imaging technique that leverages microseismic events as imaging sources, applies prestack Kirchhoff migration to each individual source, then stacks hundreds of sources to generate a 3D reflectivity volume. The imaging workflow produces a high-resolution map of the regional granitoid contact and, more importantly, reveals internal structures within the heart of the geothermal reservoir that have not been previously described. By correlating well-log data and geological evidence, we identify a low-angle interface located just below and nearly parallel to the granitoid contact. Key findings also reveal two natural fractures near the stimulation zone, visible prior to stimulation, which may accommodate the injected fluid and affect the hydraulic fracturing efficiency. Those internal structures are difficult to observe by typical surface sources since the regional granite-alluvium interface is strong and not easily penetrated by seismic waves. Time-lapse imaging of the hydraulic fracture is conducted and integrated with low-frequency DAS to construct a more comprehensive fracture geometry. In conclusion, the 3D fracture volume produced by DAS microseismic reflection imaging deepens our understanding of geothermal reservoir dynamics, potentially enhancing geothermal characterization and exploitation strategies.

裂缝几何形状和储层结构的准确表征对于增强型地热系统(EGS)的成功设计和开发至关重要。常规地面地震成像由于衰减强和震源频率有限,往往无法在深部圈定水力裂缝。本研究利用分布式声学传感(DAS)记录的[16A(78)-32]注入活动期间的微地震数据,对犹他FORGE现场进行了高分辨率成像。我们开发了一种成像技术,利用微地震事件作为成像源,对每个单独的震源进行叠前Kirchhoff偏移,然后叠加数百个震源来生成3D反射率体积。成像工作流程生成了区域花岗岩接触的高分辨率地图,更重要的是,揭示了地热储层中心的内部结构,这些结构以前没有被描述过。通过对比测井资料和地质证据,我们确定了一个低角度界面,位于花岗岩接触层的正下方,几乎平行于花岗岩接触层。关键发现还揭示了增产带附近的两条天然裂缝,在增产之前就可以看到,这些裂缝可能容纳注入的流体,并影响水力压裂效率。由于区域花岗岩-冲积层界面较强,不易被地震波穿透,因此用典型的地表震源很难观测到这些内部构造。对水力裂缝进行延时成像,并将其与低频DAS相结合,以构建更全面的裂缝几何形状。综上所述,DAS微震反射成像产生的三维裂缝体积加深了我们对地热储层动力学的理解,有可能增强地热表征和开发策略。
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引用次数: 0
Hydroacoustic Observations of the 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption: The Role of Bathymetry Along the Path 2022年1月15日Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai火山喷发的水声观测:沿路径的水深测量的作用
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB032996
Joel D. Simon, Frederik J. Simons, Jessica C. E. Irving, Wenbo Wu, Masayuki Obayashi, Yong Yu, Yongshun John Chen, Hiroko Sugioka, Yann Hello

The 15 January 2022 submarine volcanic eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai released immense energy throughout the ocean, solid Earth, and atmosphere. We analyze mid-oceanic column acoustic pressure recordings from 24 freely drifting Mobile Earthquake Recorder in Marine Areas by Independent Divers sensors, and from 11 moored hydrophones in the International Monitoring System. We focus on the pulsed hydroacoustic phase which propagated horizontally through the ocean as a 30-min T wave with energy around 2.5–10 Hz. The records show high correlation between some receivers, significant variation among others, and varying amplitudes that cannot be explained by distance alone. We investigate the origin of this heterogeneity via the influence of bathymetric features that may block, or occlude, T-wave propagation, affecting both shape and amplitude of the records received. We count the number of seafloor obstacles within the horizontal plane of the first (ray-theoretical) Fresnel zone at a depth of 1,350 m, where the fundamental-mode T-wave eigenfunction is maximal. Adjusted for geometric spreading, the cross-correlations and sound pressure level differences between receivers systematically relate to differences in occlusion count. Our model of signal loss due to seafloor interactions predicts a 5.6 dB reduction in sound pressure level per logarithm of occlusion count, explaining 88% of the T-wave sound pressure variance across the ocean. Source characterization requires adequate path models. Our findings describe how to correct signal amplitudes for seafloor roughness. This is important for constraining volcanic or explosive yield estimates and earthquake magnitudes, and useful to model detectability through various oceanic corridors when designing hydroacoustic monitoring networks of the future.

2022年1月15日,Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai海底火山爆发,在整个海洋、固体地球和大气中释放了巨大的能量。我们分析了来自24个海洋区域自由漂流的独立潜水员传感器移动地震记录仪和11个国际监测系统系泊水听器的大洋中柱声压记录。我们的重点是脉冲水声相位,它以30分钟的能量约2.5-10 Hz的T波在海洋中水平传播。记录显示一些接收器之间的高度相关性,其他接收器之间的显著差异,以及不能仅用距离来解释的振幅变化。我们通过对水深特征的影响来研究这种非均质性的起源,这些特征可能会阻挡或遮挡t波的传播,从而影响接收到的记录的形状和振幅。我们计算了在1,350米深度的第一(射线理论)菲涅耳区水平面内的海底障碍物的数量,在那里基模t波特征函数是最大的。根据几何扩散调整后,接收器之间的相互关系和声压级差异系统地与遮挡计数的差异有关。我们的海底相互作用导致的信号损失模型预测,每对数遮挡计数声压级降低5.6 dB,解释了88%的跨海洋t波声压变化。源表征需要适当的路径模型。我们的发现描述了如何校正海底粗糙度的信号幅度。这对于限制火山或爆炸当量估计和地震震级是重要的,并且在设计未来水声监测网络时,对通过各种海洋走廊的可探测性建模是有用的。
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引用次数: 0
Inelastic Dilatancy as a Mechanism for Coseismic Fluid Depressurization of a Shallow Fault Zone 非弹性剪胀:浅断裂带同震流体降压机制
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB031896
Ruei-Jiun Hung, Matthew Weingarten, Shuo Ma, Steven M. Day

Hydrologic observations and experimental studies indicate that inelastic dilation from coseismic fault damage can cause substantial pore pressure reduction, yet most near-fault hydromechanical models ignore such inelastic effects. Here, we present a 3-D groundwater flow model incorporating the effects of inelastic dilation based on an earthquake dynamic rupture model with inelastic off-fault deformation, both on pore pressure and permeability enhancement. Our results show that inelastic dilation causes mostly notable depressurization within ∼1 km off the fault at shallow depths (<3 km). We found agreement between our model predictions and recent field observations, namely that both sides of the fault can experience large-magnitude (∼tens of meters) water level drawdowns. For comparison, simulations considering only elastic strain produced smaller water level changes (∼several meters) and contrasting signs of water level change on either side of the fault. The models show that inelastic dilation is a mechanism for coseismic fault depressurization at shallow depths. While the inelastic dilation is a localized phenomenon which is most pronounced in the fault zone, the pressure gradients produced in the coseismic phase have a broader effect, increasing fluid migration back into the fault zone in the postseismic phase. We suggest field hydrologic measurements in the very-near-field (<1 km) of active faults could capture damage-related pore pressure signals produced by inelastic dilation, helping improve our understanding of fault mechanics and groundwater management near active faults.

水文观测和实验研究表明,同震断层损伤引起的非弹性膨胀会导致孔隙压力大幅降低,但大多数近断层流体力学模型都忽略了这种非弹性效应。本文基于非弹性断层变形的地震动力破裂模型,建立了考虑非弹性膨胀对孔隙压力和渗透率增强影响的三维地下水流动模型。我们的研究结果表明,非弹性膨胀在离断层约1公里的浅深度(<;3公里)内引起了最显著的降压。我们发现我们的模型预测与最近的实地观测结果一致,即断层两侧都可能经历大规模(~数十米)的水位下降。为了进行比较,只考虑弹性应变的模拟产生了较小的水位变化(约几米),并在断层两侧形成了水位变化的对比迹象。模型表明,非弹性膨胀是同震断层浅层减压的一种机制。非弹性膨胀是一种局部现象,在断裂带中最为明显,而同震阶段产生的压力梯度影响范围更广,增加了流体在震后阶段向断裂带的运移。我们认为,在活动断层的近场(<;1公里)进行现场水文测量可以捕获由非弹性膨胀产生的与损伤相关的孔隙压力信号,有助于提高我们对断层力学和活动断层附近地下水管理的理解。
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引用次数: 0
An Entropic Explanation for Gutenberg-Richter Scaling Gutenberg-Richter标度的熵解释
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB032719
M. T. Page, E. H. Field

We develop a simple explanation for Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) size scaling of earthquakes on a single fault. We discretize the fault and consider all possible contiguous ruptures at that level of discretization. In this static model, we assume that slip scales with rupture length, and that the rupture rates at each point along the fault are consistent with an a priori long-term slip rate. These simple assumptions define an (under-determined) non-negative least squares inverse problem. Each solution to this inverse problem is a set of earthquake rates that matches the slip-rate constraint. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to uniformly sample the solution space assuming constant slip rates along the fault. At finer discretizations, deviations from G-R behavior decrease, which is consistent with an entropic pressure toward G-R solutions. When the fault is discretized into 10 or more segments, random solutions found by the MCMC algorithm have G-R size scaling, even though there are trivial solutions that, for example, have earthquakes of only one size. This is because there are simply far more solutions that have G-R scaling; as the problem size increases, the strong degeneracy of G-R solutions results in other solutions becoming improbably rare. Also, the entropically favored G-R distribution has a b $b$-value of approximately 1, which agrees with measured b $b$-values in real earthquake catalogs.

我们对单个断层上地震的古腾堡-里希特(G-R)大小尺度进行了简单的解释。我们将断层离散化,并考虑在该离散化水平上所有可能的连续破裂。在这个静态模型中,我们假设滑动尺度随破裂长度变化,并且沿断层各点的破裂率与先验的长期滑动率一致。这些简单的假设定义了一个(待定的)非负最小二乘逆问题。这个反问题的每个解都是一组与滑移率约束相匹配的地震率。我们使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)算法对假设沿断层滑动率恒定的解空间进行均匀采样。在更精细的离散化中,G-R行为的偏差减小,这与G-R解的熵压一致。当断层被离散成10个或更多的部分时,由MCMC算法找到的随机解具有G-R大小缩放,即使存在一些平凡的解,例如,只有一种大小的地震。这是因为有更多的解决方案具有G-R缩放;随着问题规模的增加,G-R解的强简并性导致其他解变得罕见。此外,熵有利的G-R分布的b$b$值约为1,这与实际地震目录中测量到的b$b$值一致。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Interactions Govern Tectonic Tremor Activities in the Nankai Trough: A Statistical Approach for Spatiotemporal Pattern Modeling and Anomaly Detection 空间相互作用控制南开海槽构造震颤活动:一种时空模式建模和异常检测的统计方法
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB032806
Seiya Yano, Satoshi Ide, Shunichi Nomura

Establishing a quantitative framework to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns of slow earthquakes and to detect their anomalous activities is essential for understanding diverse slip behaviors on plate boundaries and seismic hazard assessment. In this study, we focus on deep tectonic tremors, which are one manifestation of slow earthquakes and are detectable through seismological observations along the Nankai Trough. We develop a probabilistic model based on a multivariate Hawkes process to describe both the temporal and spatial characteristics of their activity. Our analysis shows that more than half of the tremors are attributable to interactions with neighboring regions, which underlines the importance of incorporating spatial interactions into the forecasting model. Along-dip and along-strike variations in background tremor seismicity and the effective durations of inter-tremor interactions revealed in our model are consistent with previous geophysical and geological observations and conceptual frameworks, including tremor migration, depth-dependent slip modes, partial overlap with slow slip events (SSEs), and along-strike variations in plate convergence rate. We further compare the model-predicted tremor activity with observations and quantify their differences in cumulative event counts using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to identify transient anomalies. The detected anomalies include both short-duration (∼0.1 days) and long-duration (∼100 days) activations and quiescences. Although their spatial extent is much smaller (< ${< } $25 km) than that of SSEs, half of the short-term anomalies partially correlate with geodetically detected short-term SSEs. These results demonstrate the potential of our approach to provide a robust framework for forecasting slow earthquake activity and detecting its changes.

建立一个定量框架来评估慢震的时空格局,并检测其异常活动,对于理解板块边界滑动行为的多样性和地震危险性评估至关重要。在本次研究中,我们重点研究了深部构造震动,这是缓慢地震的一种表现形式,通过南开海槽的地震观测可以探测到。我们开发了一个基于多元霍克斯过程的概率模型来描述其活动的时空特征。我们的分析表明,超过一半的地震可归因于与邻近区域的相互作用,这强调了将空间相互作用纳入预测模型的重要性。本模型揭示的背景地震活动性的沿倾和沿走向变化以及地震间相互作用的有效持续时间与以前的地球物理和地质观测和概念框架一致,包括地震迁移、深度依赖的滑动模式、与慢滑动事件的部分重叠以及板块收敛速率的沿走向变化。我们进一步将模型预测的震颤活动与观测结果进行比较,并使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验来确定瞬态异常,量化它们在累积事件计数中的差异。检测到的异常包括短时间(~ 0.1天)和长时间(~ 100天)的激活和静止。虽然它们的空间范围远小于sse (<${<} $25 km),但有一半的短期异常与大地测量检测到的短期sse部分相关。这些结果表明,我们的方法有潜力为预测缓慢地震活动和探测其变化提供一个强有力的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Molecular-Dynamics Study of the Crystal Structure of Iron Under the Earth's Inner Core Conditions 地球内核条件下铁晶体结构的分子动力学研究
IF 4.1 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1029/2025JB032139
Hua Yang, Lei Wan, Yunguo Li, Lidunka Vočadlo, John Brodholt

The crystal structure of Earth's solid inner core is fundamental to understanding the chemical composition and dynamical evolution of the core. However, despite extensive research, the structure still remains controversial with competing hypotheses regarding the stability of various Fe phases (e.g., bcc, fcc, and hcp). In this paper, we review the studies on the crystal structure of Fe under inner core conditions, and find, in line with previous work, that the main challenges come from the small energy differences between these structures. This has led to a variety of different conclusions across varying theoretical methods and precision, including ab initio, force field and machine learning methods. To address this problem, we employ a Bain path thermodynamic integration approach to reach consistent conclusions among different methods; we find that bcc Fe is mechanically stable but thermodynamically less stable under inner core conditions. Using the energetics from the Bain path method as a benchmark, we establish the requirements for converging free energy calculations through a two-phase thermodynamic modeling approach. These calculations confirm that the hcp phase is the most stable, exhibiting the highest melting temperature regardless of the method used. This unified conclusion on the hcp phase as the stable crystal structure provides a robust foundation for future studies on Earth's core.

地球固体内核的晶体结构是了解地核化学成分和动态演化的基础。然而,尽管进行了广泛的研究,但关于各种Fe相(例如bcc, fcc和hcp)的稳定性,结构仍然存在争议。在本文中,我们回顾了在内核条件下对铁晶体结构的研究,并发现,与之前的工作一致,主要的挑战来自这些结构之间的小能量差。这导致了各种不同的理论方法和精度的不同结论,包括从头算、力场和机器学习方法。为了解决这一问题,我们采用了贝恩路径热力学积分方法,在不同的方法之间得出一致的结论;我们发现bcc Fe在内核条件下力学稳定,但热力学不稳定。以Bain路径法的能量学为基准,通过两相热力学建模方法建立了收敛自由能计算的要求。这些计算证实,无论采用何种方法,hcp相都是最稳定的,表现出最高的熔化温度。这一关于hcp相作为稳定晶体结构的统一结论,为未来地核的研究奠定了坚实的基础。
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引用次数: 0
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