Lahars are among the most frequent hazards associated with Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala. Despite their recurrence, early detection and automated alerts remain challenging since they often rely on manual monitoring and sparse visual confirmation. Yet, we can harness the high number of flows triggered every rainy season to characterize their seismic signatures and quantify their size and behavior. For this, we used seismic stations located along two active lahar channels on Fuego where this characterization describes a somewhat stable long-term flow behavior. This work revealed more varied short-term behavior characterized by increasing seismic activity in the time domain and a shift toward lower frequencies as these flows propagate downstream. Building on this characterization, we implemented K-nearest neighbor (KNN) based detectors using seismic signal attributes describing samples of the data in the time and frequency domains, as well as statistical functions of these samples. We trained generalized and station-specific detectors that achieved high accuracy for detecting moderate-to-large flows with lower performance for smaller or ambiguous events. We found that root mean square amplitude, a proxy for flow size, appears to control detector performance more than other signal features. The detector is computationally efficient and, in the case of Fuego, did not require additional instrumentation. This framework presents a portable solution for enhancing automated lahar detection while minimizing the use of location-specific parameters required by other methods.
Volcano deformation measured through Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is ideal for volcano monitoring in many regions due to its global coverage, characteristic spatio-temporal patterns, and modeling insights. Routinely acquired and processed Sentinel-1 InSAR datacubes provide the first opportunity to systematically catalog, model and compare volcano deformation globally. Here, we present a framework (GBIS-BULK) to systematically pre-process and model volcano deformation signals, designed to be applied to routinely processed InSAR data sets. This requires a robust (semi-) automated approach to estimate signal locations and footprints for effective pre-processing and modeling. Our approach combines (a) filtering and clustering to locate the signal center; (b) noise reduction using Independent Component Analysis (ICA); and (c) image classification using Otsu thresholding to delimit the signal footprint. We invert for the best-fit point source model using constraints from existing global volcano deformation catalogs. First, we examine the influence of downsampling schemes, image noise and coherence using synthetic interferograms, showing nested-uniform downsampling is more suited to automated processing than quadtree methods which typically require manual tuning. Then, we validate the approach using Sentinel-1 deformation images from the East African Rift System (EARS). The pre-processing steps reasonably locate the signal at 15/16 of the EARS volcanoes, and the signal footprint at 14/16. ICA reduces or approximately maintains the image RMS in all cases. Our systematic point source estimates showed consistency when directly compared with previous (bespoke) modeling studies. This approach has the potential to be integrated with existing toolkits for routinely processing and analyzing Sentinel-1 InSAR data and hence applied globally.
The geology of New Zealand has been shaped by tectonic plate interactions driven by mantle convection over the past 60 million years, but the effects of these interactions on the transition to the lower mantle are not yet well understood. We analyze 10 years of teleseismic