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Dealing with Allies in Decline: U.S. Strategy and Alliance Management in an Era of Global Power Shifts 应对衰落中的盟友:全球权力转移时代的美国战略与联盟管理
H. Brands
Dealing with Allies in Decline: Alliance Management and U.S. Strategy in an Era of Global Power Shifts is the latest study by CSBA Senior Fellow Hal Brands. In the monograph, Brands argues that although America's alliances are a source of great geopolitical strength, the difficult reality is that shifts in global economic and military power have left many of America's traditional allies with significantly diminished relative standing and capabilities. The monograph assesses the key trends that have marked this decline since the early post-Cold War era and discusses the increasingly severe strategic challenges this situation poses for American statecraft. It concludes with a series of practical recommendations for how the United States can manage its alliances amid ongoing changes in the global distribution of power, and how it can better position itself to compete in a global context in which its allies' strengths-while still considerable-are not as great as they once were.
《应对衰落中的盟友:全球权力转移时代的联盟管理和美国战略》是CSBA高级研究员哈尔·布兰兹的最新研究。在这本专著中,布兰兹认为,尽管美国的联盟是巨大地缘政治力量的来源,但艰难的现实是,全球经济和军事实力的变化使美国的许多传统盟友的相对地位和能力显著下降。这本专著评估了自冷战后早期以来标志着这种衰落的主要趋势,并讨论了这种情况对美国治国方略构成的日益严峻的战略挑战。报告最后提出了一系列切实可行的建议,包括美国如何在全球权力分配不断变化的情况下管理其盟友,以及美国如何在全球范围内更好地定位自己,在其盟友的实力(尽管仍然相当可观)不如以往强大的情况下进行竞争。
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引用次数: 1
Unification of Economic Systems in the Global Economy: Barriers and Preconditions 全球经济中经济系统的统一:障碍与前提
S. Vokina, Yulia S. Zima, Nikolai G. Sinyavsky, V. Meshkov, A. Sultanova
The purpose of the article is to determine barriers and preconditions for reducing the differences in the level of development in the global economy’s countries and to develop recommendations for solving the problem of the global economy’s economic systems unification. In order to determine the gap between developed and developing countries, the authors use the comparative analysis method. In order to determine possibilities, problems, perspectives, and threats to overcoming the gap by developing countries, the authors use the SWOT-analysis method. For studying the global economy’s economic development disproportions, this research uses specially developed proprietary analysis of gap depth in economic development. As a result of the analysis, the authors determined that the level of economic development of the most developed countries exceeds the level of developing countries by more than four times. This reflects a huge gap depth and a high level of differentiation for countries in the global economy. The authors conclude that barriers of unification of economic systems in the global economy are primarily related to socio-political factors. Preconditions to reducing the difference in level of economic development for countries in the global economy are predetermined by the influence of globalization and international integration of economic systems.
本文的目的是确定减少全球经济国家发展水平差异的障碍和前提条件,并为解决全球经济经济体系统一问题提出建议。为了确定发达国家和发展中国家之间的差距,作者采用了比较分析法。为了确定发展中国家克服差距的可能性、问题、前景和威胁,作者使用了swot分析法。为了研究全球经济的经济发展不平衡问题,本研究采用了专门开发的经济发展差距深度分析方法。分析的结果是,作者确定,最发达国家的经济发展水平超过发展中国家的水平四倍以上。这反映出各国在全球经济中存在巨大的差距深度和高度分化。作者的结论是,全球经济中经济制度统一的障碍主要与社会政治因素有关。缩小全球经济中各国经济发展水平差异的先决条件是全球化和国际经济体系一体化的影响所决定的。
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引用次数: 6
The ITU 1988 Melbourne Conference: Economic Factors in International Cooperation and the Growth of the Internet 国际电联1988年墨尔本会议:国际合作中的经济因素和互联网的发展
Thomas Spavins
This paper reviews the revisions to the data communications parts of the International telecommunications Regulations adopted at this conference. These two bedrock normative rules: 1) open interconnection of devices of all kinds; and 2) resale and sharing of dedicated facilities allowed many alternative methods of international data communications to flourish. This network openness enabled but did not guarantee the ultimate success of the Internet. The paper indicates that the linage of the internet to the norms of open science.was strongly complementary to it ultimate success.
本文回顾了本次会议通过的对《国际电信规则》数据通信部分的修订。这两个基本规范规则:1)各种设备的开放互连;专用设施的转售和共享使许多国际数据通信的替代方法得以蓬勃发展。这种网络的开放性促成了因特网的最终成功,但并不能保证它的成功。本文指出了互联网对开放科学规范的影响。是它最终成功的有力补充。
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引用次数: 0
Institutional Perfection or Improvement of Imperfect Institutions? An Essay on the Methodological Status of Perfect but Unfeasible Institutional Regimes 制度完善还是不完善制度的改进?论完善但不可行的制度制度的方法论地位
L. Zanitelli
The paper deals with “perfect institutional regimes” (PIRs), defined as regimes that optimally satisfy a given value (like justice). Assuming that a PIR is unfeasible in the short term to agents willing to achieve it, what reasons do we have to spend time on a PIR? One answer is that knowing about PIRs is interesting enough to warrant an inquiry into the subject, even if it is not likely to change the world. Another is that searching for a PIR helps to set up the principles under which more modest proposals of change are to be evaluated. Another, finally, is that theorizing about a PIR may have a motivational impact: although there are no motivated agents to whom the realization of a PIR is nowadays feasible, talking about it might lead to a change of this scenario.
本文涉及“完美制度制度”(PIRs),定义为最优地满足给定价值(如正义)的制度。假设对于愿意实现PIR的代理来说,PIR在短期内是不可行的,那么我们有什么理由花时间在PIR上呢?一个答案是,了解pir是很有趣的,足以保证对这个主题进行调查,即使它不太可能改变世界。另一个原因是,寻找PIR有助于建立一些原则,在这些原则下,更温和的改革建议将被评估。最后,另一个原因是,将PIR理论化可能会产生动机影响:尽管目前没有动机主体认为实现PIR是可行的,但谈论它可能会导致这种情况的改变。
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引用次数: 1
La Alianza Del Pacifico: Nueva Muestra Del Regionalismo En América Latina (The Pacific Alliance: A New Sample of Regionalism in Latin America) 太平洋联盟:拉丁美洲区域主义的新样本(太平洋联盟:拉丁美洲区域主义的新样本)
D. Rojas, Jose Teran
Spanish Abstract: La Alianza del Pacifico se instituyo como una propuesta de integracion profunda entre Chile, Colombia, Mexico y Peru. La pregunta que se plantea en este trabajo es ?cual de los enfoques del regionalismo en America Latina es el mas idoneo para caracterizar teoricamente la iniciativa de la Alianza del Pacifico? En este sentido, se exponen los conceptos de regionalismo abierto y regionalismo estrategico para caracterizar esta iniciativa, y se resaltan sus limites a partir de evidencia empirica. El trabajo concluye que los conceptos de regionalismo que dan mayor enfasis a las dinamicas comerciales no son suficientes para comprender el funcionamiento y desempeno actual de la Alianza del Pacifico, por lo que se introduce un enfoque analitico complementario, el cual responde a dinamicas globales de largo plazo. English Abstract: The Pacific Alliance was established as a model of deep integration between Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. The question raised in this paper is which of the Latin American regionalism approaches is more proper for the theoretical characterization of the Pacific Alliance initiative. In this sense, the concepts of open regionalism and strategic regionalism are explained for the characterization of this initiative and their limits are highlighted from empirical evidence. The paper concludes that regionalism concepts which give greater emphasis to commercial dynamics are not enough to understand the current operation and performance of the Pacific Alliance. As such, a complementary analytical approach is introduced which responds to the long term global dynamics.
摘要:太平洋联盟是智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥和秘鲁之间深度一体化的提议。本文提出的问题是,拉美地区主义的哪一种方法在理论上最适合描述太平洋联盟的倡议?在这方面,我们提出了开放区域主义和战略区域主义的概念,以描述这一倡议,并从经验证据突出其局限性。工作总结说,方言的概念让enfasis尚不足以理解贸易动态运作和现任desempeno太平洋联盟,因此采用了一种analitico补充,符合长期的全球动态。太平洋联盟是智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥和秘鲁之间深度一体化的典范。本文提出的问题是,哪种拉丁美洲区域主义方法更适合太平洋联盟倡议的理论特征。在这方面,对开放区域主义和战略性区域主义的概念进行了解释,并从经验证据中强调了它们的局限性。论文的结论是,更加强调商业动力的区域主义概念不足以理解太平洋联盟目前的运作和表现。= =地理= =根据美国人口普查,这个县的面积为。
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引用次数: 9
Политическая экономия военных союзов: пример программ военной помощи США Израилю (Selected Cases on Political Economy of Alliances: US Aid for Israel – A Short Historical Review)
K. Yanovskiy
Russian Abstract: Исторические данные по американской помощи Израилю хорошо иллюстрируют механизмы работы групп специальных интересов и стимулы политиков в Израиле. На раннем этапе союза с США Израиль был ценным союзником, создававшим стратегическую угрозу СССР и другим врагам США. На данном этапе элемент взаимной выгоды сильно ослаблен в пользу контроля старшего союзника над младшим (фактически, американскими и израильскими интересантами над израильскими политиками). В данном обзоре внимание сосредоточено на личных стимулах, объясняющих такую динамику союза и программ помощи. Становясь все менее значимым экономическим факторам она связывает руки политикам и военным в Израиле и подрывает оборонную мощь страны. Представленные данные поддерживают новый подход к американской помощи: все ее программы необходимо отменить как можно скорее в интересах и Израиля и США.English Abstract: Historical data on US aid to Israel illustrates incentives of political leaders and special interests, first and foremost in Israel. As on the early stages of Alliance Israel military capabilities could provide valuable services to USA, undermining USSR influence in the Middle East, the current relations are hard to explain by mutual national interests. Currently the alliance is turning into the instrument of control imposed on Israeli elected politician by US and Israel special interests.The paper focus on the political actors' personal incentives, provides explanation for growing exploitation of US Aid by the special interests in Israel, while significance of the aid is approaching to insignificant level and contributes negatively to the country Defense capacity because of political conditionality imposed.The data presented could support a new vision of US-Israel alliance: ceasing of the US Aid programs for Middle East could contribute both countries Defense needs.
俄罗斯Abstract:美国对以色列援助的历史数据很好地说明了以色列特殊利益集团的运作机制和政策制定者在以色列的动机。在与美国结盟的早期阶段,以色列是一个有价值的盟友,对苏联和其他美国敌人构成了战略威胁。在这一点上,互利的因素被削弱了,有利于高级盟友控制年轻盟友(事实上,美国和以色列对以色列政客的兴趣)。这一审查集中在个人激励上,解释了欧盟和援助方案的活力。随着经济因素变得不那么重要,它束缚了以色列的政客和军方,削弱了该国的国防力量。这些数据支持美国援助的新方法:为了以色列和美国的利益,所有计划都必须尽快取消。英语Abstract:我们的历史数据在以色列的政治和特殊interest,第一个和foremost在以色列。作为联盟的早期支柱,以色列联盟对美国的保护,美国中部地区的保护,古老的关系是国家国际的考验。与美国和以色列的特殊interest相比,这是对以色列权力的控制。《个人动机》中的纸质内容,《Israel的个人动机》中的“个人动机”,《邪恶力量》中的“个人动机”。这是美国最具代表性的牛配件,也是美国最具代表性的礼物。
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引用次数: 0
Donald Trump y Su Rol En La Otan (Donald Trump and His Role in the NATO) 唐纳德·特朗普和他在北约的角色
Christian Orlando Laya
Spanish Abstract: Donald Trump, candidato a la presidencia de los Estados Unidos de Norteamerica, ha dado numerosas declaraciones acerca del rol de Estados Unidos en la OTAN y el futuro que le espera a esta en caso de que el magnate llegue a la casa blanca. Se analizan los aspectos positivos y negativos de sus declaraciones y como estas afectan a la Organizacion. Palabras claves: Donald Trump, OTAN, declaraciones.English Abstract: Donald Trump, candidate for the presidency of United States, has given serious declarations about the role of the United States in the NATO and the future that is waiting for her in case the tycoon comes to the White House. The analysis is on. The positives and the negatives aspects about his declarations and how they affect the organization.
摘要:美国总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普就美国在北约中的角色以及如果这位大亨进入白宫,北约的未来发表了许多声明。分析他们的陈述的积极和消极方面,以及它们如何影响组织。关键词:唐纳德·特朗普,北约,声明美国总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)就美国在北约(NATO)中的角色以及如果大亨来到白宫等待她的未来发表了严肃的声明。他的父亲是一名律师,母亲是一名律师。他的发言的积极和消极方面以及这些方面如何影响本组织。
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引用次数: 0
Security Estimations in South Asia: Alliance Formation or Balance of Power 南亚的安全评估:联盟的形成或力量平衡
F. Siddiqi
The article seeks to investigate how alliance formation and balance of power patterns will unfold in South Asia in the wake of an intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. Both the United States (US) and China form an intrinsic part of South Asia’s geopolitical security architecture through their embeddedness with both Pakistan and India. Historically, Pakistan relied on both American and Chinese security assistance in balancing against India while India relied more on the former Soviet Union and the US in its balancing game against Pakistan. As current geopolitical dynamics unfold with the US pivot to Asia, the rivalry and competition between the US and China is intensifying, bringing with it a similar dynamic in South Asia as Pakistan moves closer to China and India consolidates its alliance with the US. The paper concludes that, keeping current global security dynamics into perspective, the relational dynamics between Pakistan and India stands to unfold in a competitive and adversarial balance of power scenario.
本文试图探讨在中美地缘政治竞争加剧之后,南亚地区的联盟形成和权力格局平衡将如何展开。美国和中国通过与巴基斯坦和印度的紧密联系,构成了南亚地缘政治安全架构的内在组成部分。历史上,巴基斯坦依靠美国和中国的安全援助来平衡印度,而印度更多地依靠前苏联和美国来平衡巴基斯坦。随着当前地缘政治动态随着美国重返亚洲而展开,美国和中国之间的对抗和竞争正在加剧,随着巴基斯坦向中国靠拢,印度巩固与美国的联盟,南亚也出现了类似的动态。本文的结论是,从当前全球安全动态的角度来看,巴基斯坦和印度之间的关系动态将在竞争和对抗的权力平衡情景中展开。
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引用次数: 1
The Brazilian Experience with Community Protocols and the Building of Prior Informed Consent to Protect Traditional Knowledge 巴西在社区协议和建立事先知情同意以保护传统知识方面的经验
Carlos Potiara Castro, R. Ramos
Prior informed consent is a growing concern today for indigenous peoples and traditional communities in Brazil. The land they occupy, which is about 25% of the national territory, is among the best conserved in the country and there are approximately 4, 5 million people that depend on this land for their livelihood. These communities have very diverse social and historical backgrounds and their traditional knowledge of biodiversity is of significant value for the economic purposes of several technology based sectors. Within this context, community protocols became of special interest as they support the delineation of customary law to regulate interaction between communities and external stakeholders. One experience of a community protocol which is emblematic for its innovation and scope is being developed in the Bailique Archipelago community, at the mouth of the Amazon river, and is becoming a model to be adopted by communities in other regions of the country.
事先知情同意是巴西土著人民和传统社区日益关注的问题。他们占据的土地约占国家领土的25%,是该国保存最完好的土地之一,大约有450万人依靠这片土地为生。这些社区具有非常多样化的社会和历史背景,他们对生物多样性的传统知识对几个基于技术的部门的经济目的具有重要价值。在这种背景下,社区协议变得特别有趣,因为它们支持划定习惯法,以规范社区与外部利益相关者之间的互动。在亚马逊河口的贝利克群岛社区正在开发一项具有创新和范围象征意义的社区协议经验,并正在成为该国其他地区社区采用的模式。
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引用次数: 0
Doctrinal Developments in International Money: The Question of Currency Internationalisation from Bretton-Woods to the 1970's 国际货币理论发展:从布雷顿森林体系到20世纪70年代的货币国际化问题
A. Endres
In the Bretton-Woods era the controversy over cross-border use of national monies turned on how to create ‘symmetries’ and avoid significant ‘asymmetries’ in the way national currencies shared specific international currency functions. We examine the twentieth-century work of prominent economists on the nature, choice, and functions of international currencies. Prescriptive approaches to international currency formation are considered, beginning with the discussion of the Bretton-Woods plans, followed by doctrinal developments stimulated by the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system. Why are those developments instructive given recent revisitation of the currency internationalisation question in modern international monetary thought and policy? The modern revival of this question resembles a rehabilitation and restatement of earlier controversies though it underestimates the gradual encroachment of the idea of international currency competition. This idea came to dominate other doctrines from the 1970s; it accommodates the ongoing adaptation of national currencies to the full range of international currency functions.
在布雷顿森林体系时代,关于跨境使用本国货币的争议集中在如何在各国货币共享特定国际货币功能的方式上创造“对称”并避免重大的“不对称”。我们考察了20世纪杰出经济学家关于国际货币的性质、选择和功能的工作。本书首先讨论了布雷顿森林体系的计划,然后讨论了布雷顿森林体系崩溃所刺激的理论发展,考虑了国际货币形成的规范性方法。鉴于最近对现代国际货币思想和政策中货币国际化问题的重新审视,这些发展为何具有启发性?这个问题的现代复兴类似于早期争论的恢复和重述,尽管它低估了国际货币竞争思想的逐渐侵蚀。这个观点从20世纪70年代开始主导了其他学说;它使各国货币不断适应各种国际货币职能。
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引用次数: 0
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International Institutions: Politics of International Institutions & Global Governance eJournal
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