The tournament rules for long jump competitions have changed in recent years. Today, only the three athletes with the best jumps from the five initial attempts are qualified to make an additional sixth jump – a format called The Final Three. In the first implemented version of The Final Three, the top athletes sequentially make one final jump, starting with the athlete ranked third place from the initial attempts. The athlete with the longest jump in this sixth attempt wins the competition, irrespective of achieved results in previous attempts. In this study, we analyze the effect of the athletes’ jump order on the probability of winning the competition within this first implemented version of The Final Three. We derive the final’s symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium and compute the corresponding equilibrium winning probabilities, given estimated distributional parameters from the Olympic long jumping final in Tokyo 2021. The modeling of the game is preceded by a development of a stochastic model for the outcome in long jumping. Our results indicate a last mover advantage, albeit small. Our model also reveals the importance of having a low variation in the approach run length and thinking strategically in this tournament format.
{"title":"The strategic jump-the order effect on winning “The Final Three” in long jump competitions","authors":"Niklas Karlsson, Anders Lunander","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2022-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0028","url":null,"abstract":"The tournament rules for long jump competitions have changed in recent years. Today, only the three athletes with the best jumps from the five initial attempts are qualified to make an additional sixth jump – a format called The Final Three. In the first implemented version of The Final Three, the top athletes sequentially make one final jump, starting with the athlete ranked third place from the initial attempts. The athlete with the longest jump in this sixth attempt wins the competition, irrespective of achieved results in previous attempts. In this study, we analyze the effect of the athletes’ jump order on the probability of winning the competition within this first implemented version of The Final Three. We derive the final’s symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium and compute the corresponding equilibrium winning probabilities, given estimated distributional parameters from the Olympic long jumping final in Tokyo 2021. The modeling of the game is preceded by a development of a stochastic model for the outcome in long jumping. Our results indicate a last mover advantage, albeit small. Our model also reveals the importance of having a low variation in the approach run length and thinking strategically in this tournament format.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139928138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We first present a model for the outcome of snooker matches in which player strengths are allowed to vary deterministically with time. The results allow us to identify the greatest players of all time, and to examine the relationship between age and performance. Second, we present a random effects model which uses the estimated strengths from our first model, to forecast player performance, and to assess the extent to which early promise has been maintained. Ronnie O’Sullivan and Stephen Hendry are the two candidates for the title of the greatest of all time. We find that peak performance occurs between the ages of 25 and 30, younger than would be expected when compared to findings in other sports. Outside sport, these findings contribute to the general literature on variation of performance with age.
{"title":"Estimating age-dependent performance in paired comparisons competitions: application to snooker","authors":"Rose D. Baker, Ian G. McHale","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2023-0082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2023-0082","url":null,"abstract":"We first present a model for the outcome of snooker matches in which player strengths are allowed to vary deterministically with time. The results allow us to identify the greatest players of all time, and to examine the relationship between age and performance. Second, we present a random effects model which uses the estimated strengths from our first model, to forecast player performance, and to assess the extent to which early promise has been maintained. Ronnie O’Sullivan and Stephen Hendry are the two candidates for the title of the greatest of all time. We find that peak performance occurs between the ages of 25 and 30, younger than would be expected when compared to findings in other sports. Outside sport, these findings contribute to the general literature on variation of performance with age.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139678519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose an alternative design for tournaments that use a preliminary stage, followed by several rounds of single elimination play. The conventional “bracket” design of these tournaments suffers from several deficiencies. Specifically, various reasonable performance criteria for the tournament are not satisfied, there is an unnecessary element of luck in the matchups of players, and there are situations where players have an incentive to shirk. To address all these issues, we allow higher ranked players at the single elimination stage to choose their next opponent sequentially at each round. We allow each player’s ranking either to remain static, or to improve by beating a higher ranked player (Guyon, J. 2022. “Choose your opponent”: a new knockout design for hybrid tournaments. J. Sports Anal. 8: 9–29). Using data from 2215 men’s professional tennis tournaments from 1991 to 2017, we demonstrate the reasonableness of the results obtained. We also perform sensitivity analysis for the effect of increasing irregularity in the pairwise win probability matrix on three traditional performance measures. Finally, we consider strategic shirking behavior at both the individual and group levels, and show how our opponent choice design can mitigate such behavior. Overall, the opponent choice design provides higher probabilities that the best player wins and also that the two best players meet, and reduces shirking, compared to the conventional bracket design.
{"title":"Opponent choice in tournaments: winning and shirking","authors":"Nicholas G. Hall, Zhixin Liu","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2023-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2023-0030","url":null,"abstract":"We propose an alternative design for tournaments that use a preliminary stage, followed by several rounds of single elimination play. The conventional “bracket” design of these tournaments suffers from several deficiencies. Specifically, various reasonable performance criteria for the tournament are not satisfied, there is an unnecessary element of luck in the matchups of players, and there are situations where players have an incentive to shirk. To address all these issues, we allow higher ranked players at the single elimination stage to choose their next opponent sequentially at each round. We allow each player’s ranking either to remain static, or to improve by beating a higher ranked player (Guyon, J. 2022. “Choose your opponent”: a new knockout design for hybrid tournaments. <jats:italic>J. Sports</jats:italic> Anal<jats:italic>.</jats:italic> 8: 9–29). Using data from 2215 men’s professional tennis tournaments from 1991 to 2017, we demonstrate the reasonableness of the results obtained. We also perform sensitivity analysis for the effect of increasing irregularity in the pairwise win probability matrix on three traditional performance measures. Finally, we consider strategic shirking behavior at both the individual and group levels, and show how our opponent choice design can mitigate such behavior. Overall, the opponent choice design provides higher probabilities that the best player wins and also that the two best players meet, and reduces shirking, compared to the conventional bracket design.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"15 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139515811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The International Chess Federation (FIDE) imposes a voluminous and complex set of player pairing criteria in Swiss-system chess tournaments and endorses computer programs that are able to calculate the prescribed pairings. The purpose of these formalities is to ensure that players are paired fairly during the tournament and that the final ranking corresponds to the players’ true strength order. We contest the official FIDE player pairing routine by presenting alternative pairing rules. These can be enforced by computing maximum weight matchings in a carefully designed graph. We demonstrate by extensive experiments that a tournament format using our mechanism (1) yields fairer pairings in the rounds of the tournament and (2) produces a final ranking that reflects the players’ true strengths better than the state-of-the-art FIDE pairing system.
{"title":"Improving ranking quality and fairness in Swiss-system chess tournaments","authors":"Pascal Sauer, Ágnes Cseh, Pascal Lenzner","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2022-0090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0090","url":null,"abstract":"The International Chess Federation (FIDE) imposes a voluminous and complex set of player pairing criteria in Swiss-system chess tournaments and endorses computer programs that are able to calculate the prescribed pairings. The purpose of these formalities is to ensure that players are paired fairly during the tournament and that the final ranking corresponds to the players’ true strength order. We contest the official FIDE player pairing routine by presenting alternative pairing rules. These can be enforced by computing maximum weight matchings in a carefully designed graph. We demonstrate by extensive experiments that a tournament format using our mechanism (1) yields fairer pairings in the rounds of the tournament and (2) produces a final ranking that reflects the players’ true strengths better than the state-of-the-art FIDE pairing system.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"31 6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139515636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A fair and inclusive competition depends on a scoring system that takes all relevant factors into account. We analysed the current World Para Point System for swimming and identified several theoretical and practical disadvantages. We propose and test a Fair World Para Point System that not only improves the algorithm, but also extends it to accommodate for the age of the athlete. It also provides a method to break point ties. This will enable para masters swimmers for the first time to compete fairly with each other. We also develop and publish tools that enable event organisers to directly use the Fair World Para Point System.
{"title":"Fair world para masters point system for swimming","authors":"Christoph Bartneck, Elena Moltchanova","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2023-0051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2023-0051","url":null,"abstract":"A fair and inclusive competition depends on a scoring system that takes all relevant factors into account. We analysed the current World Para Point System for swimming and identified several theoretical and practical disadvantages. We propose and test a Fair World Para Point System that not only improves the algorithm, but also extends it to accommodate for the age of the athlete. It also provides a method to break point ties. This will enable para masters swimmers for the first time to compete fairly with each other. We also develop and publish tools that enable event organisers to directly use the Fair World Para Point System.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139515809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The decathlon consists of ten events with scores which are then aggregated to determine the final ranking. We develop a decathlon scoring method which is far simpler than the existing standard (IAAF1984) tables, as there are only 9 parameters instead of 30 which have an impact on the overall rank. We first identify athletes who are on the Pareto-efficient frontier i.e. those who are not dominated by anyone else. We then remove these frontier athletes and again pick all non-dominated athletes to obtain a second dominating group/Pareto frontier and iterate this procedure for the decathlon data from 1986 to 2020. Each of these groups are then characterized by their set of ten median performances. Improving from the last to the top group can then be seen as a path of progress, leading from the lowest to the highest set of median performances. Every event should have the same importance, so we normalize the data such that the path of progress follows as much as possible a space diagonal of a ten dimensional hypercube. Furthermore, any adjustment of a benchmark does not change any actual decathlon performance, hence there cannot be any unwanted rank reversals. This allows a smooth adjustment of these tables in the future, if for instance a new type of javelin needs to be introduced to reduce the range. We normalize such that current performances between 7000 and 9000 points still fall into the same range with our point tables.
{"title":"A multiplicative approach to decathlon scoring based on efficient frontiers","authors":"Manuel Schütz, Chris Tofallis","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2022-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0012","url":null,"abstract":"The decathlon consists of ten events with scores which are then aggregated to determine the final ranking. We develop a decathlon scoring method which is far simpler than the existing standard (IAAF1984) tables, as there are only 9 parameters instead of 30 which have an impact on the overall rank. We first identify athletes who are on the Pareto-efficient frontier i.e. those who are not dominated by anyone else. We then remove these frontier athletes and again pick all non-dominated athletes to obtain a second dominating group/Pareto frontier and iterate this procedure for the decathlon data from 1986 to 2020. Each of these groups are then characterized by their set of ten median performances. Improving from the last to the top group can then be seen as a path of progress, leading from the lowest to the highest set of median performances. Every event should have the same importance, so we normalize the data such that the path of progress follows as much as possible a space diagonal of a ten dimensional hypercube. Furthermore, any adjustment of a benchmark does not change any actual decathlon performance, hence there cannot be any unwanted rank reversals. This allows a smooth adjustment of these tables in the future, if for instance a new type of javelin needs to be introduced to reduce the range. We normalize such that current performances between 7000 and 9000 points still fall into the same range with our point tables.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139420563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Craig Fernandes, Jason D. Vescovi, Richard Norman, Cheri L. Bradish, Nathan Taback, Timothy C. Y. Chan
This paper presents a landmark study of equity, diversity and inclusion (EDI) in the field of sports analytics. We developed a survey that examined personal and job-related demographics, as well as individual perceptions and experiences about EDI in the workplace. We sent the survey to individuals in the five major North American professional leagues, representatives from the Olympic and Paralympic Committees in Canada and the U.S., the NCAA Division I programs, companies in sports tech/analytics, and university research groups. Our findings indicate the presence of a clear dominant group in sports analytics identifying as: young (72.0 %), White (69.5 %), heterosexual (89.7 %) and male (82.0 %). Within professional sports, males in management positions earned roughly $30,000 (27 %) more on average compared to females. A smaller but equally alarming pay gap of $17,000 (14 %) was found between White and racialized management personnel. Of concern, females were nearly five times as likely to experience discrimination and twice as likely to have considered leaving their job due to isolation or feeling unwelcome. While they had similar levels of agreement regarding fair processes for rewards and compensation, females “strongly agreed” less often than males regarding equitable support, equitable workload, having a voice, and being taken seriously. Over one third (36.3 %) of females indicated that they “strongly agreed” that they must work harder than others to be valued equally, compared to 9.8 % of males. We conclude the paper with concrete recommendations that could be considered to create a more equitable, diverse and inclusive environment for individuals working within the sports analytics sector.
{"title":"Equity, diversity, and inclusion in sports analytics","authors":"Craig Fernandes, Jason D. Vescovi, Richard Norman, Cheri L. Bradish, Nathan Taback, Timothy C. Y. Chan","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2022-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0025","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a landmark study of equity, diversity and inclusion (EDI) in the field of sports analytics. We developed a survey that examined personal and job-related demographics, as well as individual perceptions and experiences about EDI in the workplace. We sent the survey to individuals in the five major North American professional leagues, representatives from the Olympic and Paralympic Committees in Canada and the U.S., the NCAA Division I programs, companies in sports tech/analytics, and university research groups. Our findings indicate the presence of a clear dominant group in sports analytics identifying as: young (72.0 %), White (69.5 %), heterosexual (89.7 %) and male (82.0 %). Within professional sports, males in management positions earned roughly $30,000 (27 %) more on average compared to females. A smaller but equally alarming pay gap of $17,000 (14 %) was found between White and racialized management personnel. Of concern, females were nearly five times as likely to experience discrimination and twice as likely to have considered leaving their job due to isolation or feeling unwelcome. While they had similar levels of agreement regarding fair processes for rewards and compensation, females “strongly agreed” less often than males regarding equitable support, equitable workload, having a voice, and being taken seriously. Over one third (36.3 %) of females indicated that they “strongly agreed” that they must work harder than others to be valued equally, compared to 9.8 % of males. We conclude the paper with concrete recommendations that could be considered to create a more equitable, diverse and inclusive environment for individuals working within the sports analytics sector.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139408042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carl Morris 1938–2023 was well-known for his pioneering research in Bayesian multiparameter inference and prediction. Morris was also known for his development of statistical thinking and methodology in sports. This paper provides an overview of Morris’ contributions in sports. This includes Morris’ experience in sports as a youth, summaries of some of Morris’ best-known contributions using sports data, his influence working with students, and some of Morris’ thinking about the interplay of statistics and sports.
{"title":"Contributions of Carl Morris in sports analytics, a memorium","authors":"Jim Albert","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2023-0092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2023-0092","url":null,"abstract":"Carl Morris 1938–2023 was well-known for his pioneering research in Bayesian multiparameter inference and prediction. Morris was also known for his development of statistical thinking and methodology in sports. This paper provides an overview of Morris’ contributions in sports. This includes Morris’ experience in sports as a youth, summaries of some of Morris’ best-known contributions using sports data, his influence working with students, and some of Morris’ thinking about the interplay of statistics and sports.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139375743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ethan Baron, Nathan Sandholtz, Devin Pleuler, Timothy C. Y. Chan
Measuring soccer shooting skill is a challenging analytics problem due to the scarcity and highly contextual nature of scoring events. The introduction of more advanced data surrounding soccer shots has given rise to model-based metrics which better cope with these challenges. Specifically, metrics such as expected goals added, goals above expectation, and post-shot expected goals all use advanced data to offer an improvement over the classical conversion rate. However, all metrics developed to date assign a value of zero to off-target shots, which account for almost two-thirds of all shots, since these shots have no probability of scoring. We posit that there is non-negligible shooting skill signal contained in the trajectories of off-target shots and propose two shooting skill metrics that incorporate the signal contained in off-target shots. Specifically, we develop a player-specific generative model for shot trajectories based on a mixture of truncated bivariate Gaussian distributions. We use this generative model to compute metrics that allow us to attach non-zero value to off-target shots. We demonstrate that our proposed metrics are more stable than current state-of-the-art metrics and have increased predictive power.
{"title":"Miss it like Messi: Extracting value from off-target shots in soccer","authors":"Ethan Baron, Nathan Sandholtz, Devin Pleuler, Timothy C. Y. Chan","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2022-0107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0107","url":null,"abstract":"Measuring soccer shooting skill is a challenging analytics problem due to the scarcity and highly contextual nature of scoring events. The introduction of more advanced data surrounding soccer shots has given rise to model-based metrics which better cope with these challenges. Specifically, metrics such as expected goals added, goals above expectation, and post-shot expected goals all use advanced data to offer an improvement over the classical conversion rate. However, all metrics developed to date assign a value of zero to off-target shots, which account for almost two-thirds of all shots, since these shots have no probability of scoring. We posit that there is non-negligible shooting skill signal contained in the trajectories of off-target shots and propose two shooting skill metrics that incorporate the signal contained in off-target shots. Specifically, we develop a player-specific generative model for shot trajectories based on a mixture of truncated bivariate Gaussian distributions. We use this generative model to compute metrics that allow us to attach non-zero value to off-target shots. We demonstrate that our proposed metrics are more stable than current state-of-the-art metrics and have increased predictive power.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139072175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Every season, the international football calendar contains periods reserved for a series of so-called special matches including international friendly or official matches played by national teams. All these periods are called “FIFA reserved dates” in the calendar and generally cause domestic competitions to shut down for some days. Such interruptions of leagues might generate different effects or externalities on the performance of players, clubs or even on the competition itself. While a number of studies focus on the effect of players’ absence on teams performance, this paper contributes to the literature by specifically evaluating the effect of the “FIFA reserved dates” on football outcomes. Using data for four seasons from the “big five” European leagues, I find evidence that the outcomes distribution in those matches played after a “FIFA reserved date” becomes more balanced, thus increasing the uncertainty of outcome. The results of this paper contribute to the ongoing debate about the management and design of the international match calendar.
{"title":"On the design of international match calendar: the effect of “FIFA reserved dates” on European football matches’ outcomes","authors":"Levi Pérez","doi":"10.1515/jqas-2022-0041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2022-0041","url":null,"abstract":"Every season, the international football calendar contains periods reserved for a series of so-called special matches including international friendly or official matches played by national teams. All these periods are called “FIFA reserved dates” in the calendar and generally cause domestic competitions to shut down for some days. Such interruptions of leagues might generate different effects or externalities on the performance of players, clubs or even on the competition itself. While a number of studies focus on the effect of players’ absence on teams performance, this paper contributes to the literature by specifically evaluating the effect of the “FIFA reserved dates” on football outcomes. Using data for four seasons from the “big five” European leagues, I find evidence that the outcomes distribution in those matches played after a “FIFA reserved date” becomes more balanced, thus increasing the uncertainty of outcome. The results of this paper contribute to the ongoing debate about the management and design of the international match calendar.","PeriodicalId":16925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138518601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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