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Equity, diversity, and inclusion in sports analytics 体育分析中的公平性、多样性和包容性
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-09 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0025
Craig Fernandes, Jason D. Vescovi, Richard Norman, Cheri L. Bradish, Nathan Taback, Timothy C. Y. Chan
This paper presents a landmark study of equity, diversity and inclusion (EDI) in the field of sports analytics. We developed a survey that examined personal and job-related demographics, as well as individual perceptions and experiences about EDI in the workplace. We sent the survey to individuals in the five major North American professional leagues, representatives from the Olympic and Paralympic Committees in Canada and the U.S., the NCAA Division I programs, companies in sports tech/analytics, and university research groups. Our findings indicate the presence of a clear dominant group in sports analytics identifying as: young (72.0 %), White (69.5 %), heterosexual (89.7 %) and male (82.0 %). Within professional sports, males in management positions earned roughly $30,000 (27 %) more on average compared to females. A smaller but equally alarming pay gap of $17,000 (14 %) was found between White and racialized management personnel. Of concern, females were nearly five times as likely to experience discrimination and twice as likely to have considered leaving their job due to isolation or feeling unwelcome. While they had similar levels of agreement regarding fair processes for rewards and compensation, females “strongly agreed” less often than males regarding equitable support, equitable workload, having a voice, and being taken seriously. Over one third (36.3 %) of females indicated that they “strongly agreed” that they must work harder than others to be valued equally, compared to 9.8 % of males. We conclude the paper with concrete recommendations that could be considered to create a more equitable, diverse and inclusive environment for individuals working within the sports analytics sector.
本文介绍了对体育分析领域的公平、多样性和包容性(EDI)进行的一项具有里程碑意义的研究。我们制定了一项调查,研究个人和工作相关的人口统计数据,以及个人对工作场所 EDI 的看法和经验。我们向北美五大职业联盟的个人、加拿大和美国奥林匹克委员会和残奥委员会的代表、美国国家大学生体育协会一级项目、体育科技/分析领域的公司以及大学研究小组发送了调查问卷。我们的研究结果表明,在体育分析领域存在一个明显的主导群体,他们的特征是:年轻(72.0%)、白人(69.5%)、异性恋(89.7%)和男性(82.0%)。在职业体育界,担任管理职位的男性平均收入比女性高出约 3 万美元(27%)。白人和种族化管理人员之间的薪酬差距较小,但同样令人担忧,差距为 1.7 万美元(14%)。值得关注的是,女性遭受歧视的可能性几乎是男性的五倍,由于孤立无援或感觉不受欢迎而考虑离职的可能性是男性的两倍。虽然她们对公平的奖励和补偿程序的认同程度相似,但女性对公平的支持、公平的工作量、有发言权和受到重视的 "强烈认同 "程度低于男性。超过三分之一(36.3%)的女性表示,她们 "非常同意 "自己必须比别人付出更多努力才能得到同等重视,而男性的这一比例仅为 9.8%。在本文的最后,我们提出了一些具体建议,以便为在体育分析领域工作的个人创造一个更加公平、多元化和包容的环境。
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引用次数: 0
Contributions of Carl Morris in sports analytics, a memorium 纪念卡尔-莫里斯在体育分析方面的贡献
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-05 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2023-0092
Jim Albert
Carl Morris 1938–2023 was well-known for his pioneering research in Bayesian multiparameter inference and prediction. Morris was also known for his development of statistical thinking and methodology in sports. This paper provides an overview of Morris’ contributions in sports. This includes Morris’ experience in sports as a youth, summaries of some of Morris’ best-known contributions using sports data, his influence working with students, and some of Morris’ thinking about the interplay of statistics and sports.
卡尔-莫里斯(Carl Morris)1938-2023 年,因其在贝叶斯多参数推理和预测方面的开创性研究而闻名于世。莫里斯还因其在体育领域的统计思想和方法论的发展而闻名。本文概述了莫里斯在体育领域的贡献。其中包括莫里斯年轻时的体育经历、莫里斯利用体育数据做出的一些最著名贡献的摘要、他对学生工作的影响以及莫里斯对统计与体育相互作用的一些思考。
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引用次数: 0
Miss it like Messi: Extracting value from off-target shots in soccer 像梅西一样错失良机:从足球的脱靶射门中提取价值
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0107
Ethan Baron, Nathan Sandholtz, Devin Pleuler, Timothy C. Y. Chan
Measuring soccer shooting skill is a challenging analytics problem due to the scarcity and highly contextual nature of scoring events. The introduction of more advanced data surrounding soccer shots has given rise to model-based metrics which better cope with these challenges. Specifically, metrics such as expected goals added, goals above expectation, and post-shot expected goals all use advanced data to offer an improvement over the classical conversion rate. However, all metrics developed to date assign a value of zero to off-target shots, which account for almost two-thirds of all shots, since these shots have no probability of scoring. We posit that there is non-negligible shooting skill signal contained in the trajectories of off-target shots and propose two shooting skill metrics that incorporate the signal contained in off-target shots. Specifically, we develop a player-specific generative model for shot trajectories based on a mixture of truncated bivariate Gaussian distributions. We use this generative model to compute metrics that allow us to attach non-zero value to off-target shots. We demonstrate that our proposed metrics are more stable than current state-of-the-art metrics and have increased predictive power.
由于得分事件的稀缺性和高度情境性,衡量足球射门技能是一个具有挑战性的分析问题。围绕足球射门的更先进数据的引入,催生了基于模型的指标,从而更好地应对了这些挑战。具体来说,预期进球数、超预期进球数和射门后预期进球数等指标都是利用先进数据来改进传统的转换率。然而,迄今为止开发的所有指标都将占所有射门近三分之二的脱靶射门赋值为零,因为这些射门没有得分的可能性。我们认为,脱靶射门的轨迹中包含了不可忽略的射门技巧信号,并提出了两种包含脱靶射门信号的射门技巧指标。具体来说,我们基于截断双变量高斯分布的混合物,为投篮轨迹建立了一个球员特定的生成模型。我们利用这一生成模型计算出指标,从而为偏离目标的击球赋予非零值。我们证明,我们提出的指标比目前最先进的指标更稳定,而且预测能力更强。
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引用次数: 0
On the design of international match calendar: the effect of “FIFA reserved dates” on European football matches’ outcomes 论国际比赛日历的设计:“国际足联保留日期”对欧洲足球比赛结果的影响
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0041
Levi Pérez
Every season, the international football calendar contains periods reserved for a series of so-called special matches including international friendly or official matches played by national teams. All these periods are called “FIFA reserved dates” in the calendar and generally cause domestic competitions to shut down for some days. Such interruptions of leagues might generate different effects or externalities on the performance of players, clubs or even on the competition itself. While a number of studies focus on the effect of players’ absence on teams performance, this paper contributes to the literature by specifically evaluating the effect of the “FIFA reserved dates” on football outcomes. Using data for four seasons from the “big five” European leagues, I find evidence that the outcomes distribution in those matches played after a “FIFA reserved date” becomes more balanced, thus increasing the uncertainty of outcome. The results of this paper contribute to the ongoing debate about the management and design of the international match calendar.
每个赛季,国际足球日历上都有一系列所谓的特殊比赛,包括国际友谊赛或国家队的正式比赛。所有这些时期在日历上被称为“国际足联保留日”,通常会导致国内比赛关闭几天。联赛的中断可能会对球员、俱乐部甚至比赛本身的表现产生不同的影响或外部性。虽然许多研究关注的是球员缺勤对球队表现的影响,但本文通过具体评估“FIFA保留日期”对足球结果的影响,为文献做出了贡献。使用欧洲五大联赛四个赛季的数据,我发现在“国际足联保留日期”之后进行的比赛的结果分布变得更加平衡,从而增加了结果的不确定性。本文的研究结果有助于对国际比赛日程管理和设计的持续争论。
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引用次数: 0
Plackett–Luce modeling with trajectory models for measuring athlete strength Plackett-Luce模型与轨迹模型测量运动员力量
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2021-0034
Katy McKeough, Mark Glickman
Abstract It is often the goal of sports analysts, coaches, and fans to predict athlete performance over time. Models such as Bradley–Terry and Plackett–Luce measure athlete skill based on results of competitions over time, but have limited predictive strength without making assumptions about the nature of the evolution of athletic skill. Growth curves are often applied in the context of sports to predict future ability, but these curves are too simple to account for complex career trajectories. We propose a non-linear, mixed-effects trajectory to model the ratings as a function of time and other athlete-specific covariates. The mixture of trajectories allows for flexibility in the estimated shape of career trajectories between athletes as well as between sports. We use the fitted trajectories to make predictions of an athlete’s career trajectory through a model of how athlete performance progresses over time in a multi-competitor scenario as an extension to the Plackett–Luce model. We show how this model is useful for predicting the outcome of women’s luge races, as well as show how we can use the model to compare athletes to one another by clustering career trajectories.
预测运动员在一段时间内的表现通常是体育分析师、教练和球迷的目标。像Bradley-Terry和Plackett-Luce这样的模型是基于一段时间内的比赛结果来衡量运动员的技能的,但是在没有假设运动技能进化的本质的情况下,它们的预测能力有限。成长曲线经常被应用于体育运动中,用来预测未来的能力,但这些曲线过于简单,无法解释复杂的职业轨迹。我们提出了一个非线性的混合效应轨迹,将评级建模为时间和其他运动员特定协变量的函数。轨迹的混合允许运动员之间以及运动之间的职业轨迹的估计形状的灵活性。作为Plackett-Luce模型的延伸,我们利用拟合的轨迹来预测运动员的职业轨迹,通过一个模型来预测运动员在多竞争者情况下的表现如何随时间发展。我们展示了这个模型在预测女子雪橇比赛结果方面是如何有用的,同时也展示了我们如何通过聚类职业轨迹来使用这个模型来比较运动员。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating plate discipline in Major League Baseball with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees 用贝叶斯加性回归树评估美国职棒大联盟的板规
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2023-0048
Ryan Yee, Sameer K. Deshpande
Abstract We introduce a three-step framework to determine at which pitches Major League batters should swing. Unlike traditional plate discipline metrics, which implicitly assume that all batters should always swing at (resp. take) pitches inside (resp. outside) the strike zone, our approach explicitly accounts not only for the players and umpires involved in the pitch but also in-game contextual information like the number of outs, the count, baserunners, and score. We first fit flexible Bayesian nonparametric models to estimate (i) the probability that the pitch is called a strike if the batter takes the pitch; (ii) the probability that the batter makes contact if he swings; and (iii) the number of runs the batting team is expected to score following each pitch outcome (e.g. swing and miss, take a called strike, etc.). We then combine these intermediate estimates to determine whether swinging increases the batting team’s run expectancy. Our approach enables natural uncertainty propagation so that we can not only determine the optimal swing/take decision but also quantify our confidence in that decision. We illustrate our framework using a case study of pitches faced by Mike Trout in 2019.
摘要:我们介绍了一个三步框架来确定大联盟击球手应该在哪些球上挥拍。与传统的本垒训练指标不同的是,传统的指标隐含地假设所有击球手都应该在击球时挥棒。把投球带进去(请注意)。在好球区之外,我们的方法不仅明确地考虑了参与投球的球员和裁判,还考虑了游戏内的相关信息,如出局数、计数、跑垒者和得分。我们首先拟合灵活的贝叶斯非参数模型来估计(i)如果击球手投出这个球,这个球被称为好球的概率;(ii)击球手挥棒时触球的概率;以及(iii)每次投球结果(如挥棒而未击中、被判好球等)后,打击队期望得分的分数。然后,我们结合这些中间估计来确定挥拍是否会增加打击队的得分预期。我们的方法实现了自然的不确定性传播,因此我们不仅可以确定最佳的摆动/采取决策,还可以量化我们对该决策的信心。我们用麦克·特劳特在2019年面临的推销案例来说明我们的框架。
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引用次数: 0
Frontmatter 头版头条
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2023-frontmatter3
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian analysis of Formula One race results: disentangling driver skill and constructor advantage. 一级方程式比赛结果的贝叶斯分析:车手技术和车队优势的分离。
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-25 eCollection Date: 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0021
Erik-Jan van Kesteren, Tom Bergkamp

Successful performance in Formula One is determined by combination of both the driver's skill and race-car constructor advantage. This makes key performance questions in the sport difficult to answer. For example, who is the best Formula One driver, which is the best constructor, and what is their relative contribution to success? In this paper, we answer these questions based on data from the hybrid era in Formula One (2014-2021 seasons). We present a novel Bayesian multilevel rank-ordered logit regression method to model individual race finishing positions. We show that our modelling approach describes our data well, which allows for precise inferences about driver skill and constructor advantage. We conclude that Hamilton and Verstappen are the best drivers in the hybrid era, the top-three teams (Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull) clearly outperform other constructors, and approximately 88 % of the variance in race results is explained by the constructor. We argue that this modelling approach may prove useful for sports beyond Formula One, as it creates performance ratings for independent components contributing to success.

在一级方程式赛车中,成功的表现是由车手的技术和赛车制造商的优势共同决定的。这使得这项运动中的关键性能问题难以回答。例如,谁是最好的一级方程式车手,谁是最好的建造者,他们对成功的相对贡献是什么?在本文中,我们基于f1混合动力时代(2014-2021赛季)的数据来回答这些问题。提出了一种新的贝叶斯多级秩序logistic回归方法来模拟个人比赛的终点位置。我们表明,我们的建模方法可以很好地描述我们的数据,从而可以精确地推断驾驶员技能和构造者的优势。我们得出结论,汉密尔顿和维斯塔潘是混合动力时代最好的车手,前三名车队(梅赛德斯、法拉利和红牛)的表现明显优于其他车队,大约88 %的比赛结果差异是由车队解释的。我们认为,这种建模方法可能被证明对f1以外的运动很有用,因为它为有助于成功的独立组件创建了性能评级。
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引用次数: 0
Performing best when it matters the most: evidence from professional handball 最重要的时候表现最好:来自职业手球的证据
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0070
Christoph Bühren, Marvin Gabriel
Abstract We analyze the impact of psychological pressure on performance with over 5500 handball penalties thrown in either the decisive stage or the rest of the game during matches of the 2019/2020 season in the first three German handball leagues. Contrary to the choking under pressure phenomenon, most of the analyzed players perform best when it matters the most. The positive effect of pressure on performance is highest when the score is even or when the thrower’s team is trailing. We control for gender and psychological traits assessed with a survey. In our sample, female players score with a higher probability than male players. The positive impact of pressure is not significantly higher for female players.
摘要:本文分析了心理压力对球员表现的影响,分析了2019/2020赛季德国前三大手球联赛中,在决胜阶段和比赛剩余阶段投出的5500多个手球点球。与压力下的窒息现象相反,大多数被分析的球员在最重要的时候表现得最好。压力对成绩的积极影响在比分持平或运动员所在队落后时最为显著。我们通过调查来控制性别和心理特征。在我们的样本中,女性玩家得分的概率高于男性玩家。压力对女性运动员的积极影响并不明显。
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引用次数: 4
Feeling fast? Beliefs and performance among high school sprinters 感觉快?高中短跑运动员的信念与表现
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-25 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0084
Travis J. Lybbert, Geyi Zheng
Abstract Mindset can shape sports performance, but these effects can be difficult to detect empirically. We use data from high school sprinters to explore mindset effects on 100 m finishing times and find that headwinds hamper performance more than can be attributed to the physics of wind resistance alone. These (implied) psychological effects of wind on sprint times are stronger for girls than for boys. Having established the presence of mindset-based slack in physical performance, we then test whether sprint times changed in the wake of Matthew Boling’s record-breaking sprint in 2019 that, after going viral on social media, potentially boosted self-efficacy among high school sprinters. Using 2018 and 2019 high school track meets in California, we observe notable changes in average sprinter performance for certain types of athletes in specific wind conditions after Boling’s race that did not occur in the previous season. These results control for many observable variables, correct for multiple hypothesis testing, and use entropy balancing weights to ensure statistical comparability between the two years. We detect differences in this ‘Boling effect’ based on the predicted racial composition of teams and the predicted race of athletes, which is relevant given the racial angle of coverage of the record-setting run. We posit vicarious self-efficacy as a plausible explanation for these difference-in-differences patterns. Pronounced heterogeneity in these results demonstrates some of the complexities and nuances of mindset effects even in settings where performance is easily quantified. Subtle contextual and salience cues appear to mediate the impact of vicarious self-efficacy beliefs on performance.
心态可以塑造运动表现,但这些影响很难通过经验来检测。我们使用高中短跑运动员的数据来探索心态对100 米完成时间的影响,并发现逆风对成绩的影响比仅仅归因于风阻力的物理特性更大。这些(隐含的)风对短跑时间的心理影响对女孩比对男孩更强。在确定了身体表现中存在基于心态的松弛之后,我们接下来测试了马修·博林(Matthew Boling)在2019年打破纪录的短跑后,短跑时间是否发生了变化。在社交媒体上疯传后,这可能提高了高中短跑运动员的自我效能感。利用2018年和2019年在加州举行的高中田径赛,我们观察到某些类型的运动员在特定风况下的平均短跑成绩发生了显著变化,而这在上个赛季是没有发生的。这些结果控制了许多可观察变量,纠正了多个假设检验,并使用熵平衡权来确保两年间的统计可比性。我们根据预测的团队种族组成和预测的运动员种族来检测这种“博林效应”的差异,这与记录刷新报道的种族角度有关。我们假设替代自我效能是对这些差异中的差异模式的合理解释。这些结果明显的异质性表明,即使在绩效很容易量化的环境中,心态影响也存在一些复杂性和细微差别。微妙的情境和显著性线索似乎调解了替代自我效能信念对表现的影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
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