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Pitching strategy evaluation via stratified analysis using propensity score 用倾向得分分层分析评价投球策略
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-06 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2021-0060
Hiroshi Nakahara, K. Takeda, Keisuke Fujii
Abstract Recent measurement technologies enable us to analyze baseball at higher levels of complexity. There are, however, still many unclear points around pitching strategy. There are two elements that make it difficult to measure the effect of a pitching strategy. First, most public datasets do not include location data where the catcher demands a ball, which is essential information to obtain the battery’s intent. Second, there are many confounders associated with pitching/batting results when evaluating pitching strategy. We here clarify the effect of pitching attempts to a specific location, e.g., inside or outside. We employ a causal inference framework called stratified analysis using a propensity score to evaluate the effects while removing the effect of confounding factors. We use a pitch-by-pitch dataset of Japanese professional baseball games held in 2014–2019, which includes location data where the catcher demands a ball. The results reveal that an outside pitching attempt is more effective than an inside one to minimize allowed run average. In addition, the stratified analysis shows that the outside pitching attempt is effective regardless of the magnitude of the estimated batter’s ability, and the proportion of pitched inside for pitcher/batter. Our analysis provides practical insights into selecting a pitching strategy to minimize allowed runs.
最近的测量技术使我们能够在更高的复杂水平上分析棒球。然而,在投球策略上仍有许多不清楚的地方。有两个因素使我们很难衡量投球策略的效果。首先,大多数公共数据集不包括接球手需要球的位置数据,而这是获取电池意图的必要信息。其次,在评估投球策略时,有许多与投球/击球结果相关的混杂因素。我们在这里澄清投球尝试到一个特定的位置,例如,内部或外部的影响。我们采用一种称为分层分析的因果推理框架,使用倾向评分来评估影响,同时消除混杂因素的影响。我们使用了2014-2019年举行的日本职业棒球比赛的每一球数据集,其中包括接球手需要球的位置数据。结果显示,外场投球比内场投球更能有效地减少失分。此外,分层分析表明,无论估计击球手的能力大小,以及投手/击球手的内投比例如何,外投尝试都是有效的。我们的分析为选择投球策略以减少失分提供了实际的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Clustering algorithms to increase fairness in collegiate wrestling 提高大学摔跤公平性的聚类算法
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2020-0101
N. Carter, A. Harrison, Amar Iyengar, M. Lanham, Scott T. Nestler, Dave Schrader, Amir Zadeh
Abstract In NCAA Division III Wrestling, the question arose how to assign schools to regions in a way that optimizes fairness for individual wrestlers aspiring to the national tournament. The problem fell within cluster analysis but no known clustering algorithms supported its complex and interrelated set of needs. We created several bespoke clustering algorithms based on various heuristics (balanced optimization, weighted spatial clustering, and weighted optimization rectangles) for finding an optimal assignment, and tested each against the generic technique of genetic algorithms. While each of our algorithms had different strengths, the genetic algorithm achieved the highest value on our objective function, including when comparing it to the region assignments that preceded our work. This paper therefore demonstrates a technique that can be used to solve a broad category of clustering problems that arise in athletics, particularly any sport in which athletes compete individually but are assigned to regions as a team.
在NCAA三级摔跤比赛中,出现了一个问题,即如何将学校分配到地区,以优化个人摔跤运动员渴望参加全国锦标赛的公平性。这个问题属于聚类分析,但没有已知的聚类算法支持其复杂且相互关联的需求集。我们基于各种启发式(平衡优化、加权空间聚类和加权优化矩形)创建了几种定制的聚类算法,用于寻找最优分配,并针对遗传算法的通用技术对每种算法进行了测试。虽然我们的每个算法都有不同的优势,但遗传算法在我们的目标函数上实现了最高的价值,包括将其与我们工作之前的区域分配进行比较时。因此,本文展示了一种技术,可用于解决田径运动中出现的广泛类别的聚类问题,特别是任何运动员单独竞争但作为一个团队被分配到区域的运动。
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引用次数: 0
Does the ball lie? Testing the Rasheed Wallace hypothesis 球是躺着的吗?验证拉希德·华莱士的假设
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2020-0020
B. Meehan, Javier E. Portillo, Corey Jenkins
Abstract Former NBA all-star forward Rasheed Wallace popularized the catchphrase “Ball Don’t Lie.” Rasheed would often shout this after an opponent missed a free throw. It was used by Rasheed to illustrate the mental impact on a free throw shooter from knowing the foul was questionable and its impact on likelihood of converting the ensuing free throw. The tendency to miss free throws associated with questionable foul calls—or the propensity for the ball to miss—would be followed by Rasheed’s “Ball Don’t Lie!” exclamation. This paper aims to test whether the ball was less likely to go through the hoop during free throws following questionable foul calls. We use a proxy to identify the questionableness of a foul call, one that Rasheed Wallace was very familiar with—whenever the original shooting foul was immediately followed by a technical foul. This proxy is meant to capture player and coach reactions to a shooting foul call. If the call was bad, or questionable, we expect more outrage from the team the foul was called on, which tends to draw technical fouls. Our findings do not support Rasheed’s prediction; the propensity to make a shooting foul free throw does not appear to change after a technical. In fact, using a subset of our data period under which the NBA changed technical foul rules to target complaining about foul calls, we find a small increase in free throw percentage after a technical foul call.
前NBA全明星前锋拉希德·华莱士(Rasheed Wallace)普及了“球不要撒谎”这句名言。拉希德经常在对手罚球不中后喊出这句话。拉希德用这句话来说明,当一个罚球手知道犯规有问题时,他的心理会受到怎样的影响,以及这种影响对随后罚球得分的可能性会产生怎样的影响。与可疑的犯规判罚有关的罚球不中的倾向——或者是球不中的倾向——会被拉希德的“球不要撒谎!””的感叹。本文旨在测试在可疑的犯规判罚后,罚球是否更不可能通过篮筐。我们用一个代理来识别犯规的可疑性,拉希德·华莱士对此非常熟悉——每当最初的投篮犯规紧随其后的是一次技术犯规。这个代理是为了捕捉球员和教练对投篮犯规的反应。如果这个判罚是错误的,或者是有问题的,我们预计被判罚的球队会更加愤怒,这往往会导致技术犯规。我们的发现不支持拉希德的预测;在一次技术犯规后,投篮犯规的倾向似乎并没有改变。事实上,在我们的数据期内,NBA改变了技术犯规规则,以针对对犯规的抱怨,我们发现技术犯规后罚球百分比略有增加。
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引用次数: 0
Individual role classification for players defending corners in football (soccer) 足球角球防守队员的个人角色分类
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0003
Pascal Bauer, Gabriel Anzer, J. Smith
Abstract Choosing the right defensive corner-strategy is a crucial task for each coach in professional football (soccer). Although corners are repeatable and static situations, due to their low conversion rates, several studies in literature failed to find useable insights about the efficiency of various corner strategies. Our work aims to fill this gap. We hand-label the role of each defensive player from 213 corners in 33 matches, where we then employ an augmentation strategy to increase the number of data points. By combining a convolutional neural network with a long short-term memory neural network, we are able to detect the defensive strategy of each player based on positional data. We identify which of seven well-established roles a defensive player conducted (player-marking, zonal-marking, placed for counterattack, back-space, short defender, near-post, and far-post). The model achieves an overall weighted accuracy of 89.3%, and in the case of player-marking, we are able to accurately detect which offensive player the defender is marking 80.8% of the time. The performance of the model is evaluated against a rule-based baseline model, as well as by an inter-labeller accuracy. We demonstrate that rules can also be used to support the labelling process and serve as a baseline for weak supervision approaches. We show three concrete use-cases on how this approach can support a more informed and fact-based decision making process.
摘要选择正确的防守角球策略是职业足球教练员面临的一项重要任务。虽然弯道是可重复的静态情况,但由于其低转化率,一些文献研究未能找到关于各种弯道策略效率的有用见解。我们的工作旨在填补这一空白。我们在33场比赛中的213个角球中手动标记每个防守球员的角色,然后我们采用增强策略来增加数据点的数量。通过将卷积神经网络与长短期记忆神经网络相结合,我们能够根据位置数据检测每个玩家的防守策略。我们确定了防守球员所扮演的七种角色(盯人、区域盯人、防守反击、后场、短后卫、近位和远位)。该模型的总体加权准确率为89.3%,在盯人的情况下,我们能够准确地检测防守者在盯人的进攻球员,准确率为80.8%。该模型的性能是根据基于规则的基线模型以及标记器间的准确性来评估的。我们证明,规则也可以用来支持标签过程,并作为弱监督方法的基线。我们展示了三个具体的用例,说明该方法如何支持更明智和基于事实的决策制定过程。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball 大学篮球比赛中主队获胜概率的贝叶斯估计
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-25 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2021-0086
Jason Maddox, Ryan Sides, Jane L. Harvill
Abstract Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities in Division I NCAA men’s college basketball are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differential and time elapsed. The second is an adjusted version of the first, where the adjustment is a linear combination of the Bayesian estimator with a time-weighted pregame win probability. The proposed methods are compared to existing methods, showing the new methods are competitive with or outperform existing methods for both estimation and prediction. The utility is illustrated via an application to the 2012/2013 through the 2019/2020 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball seasons.
摘要提出了两种新的贝叶斯方法来估计和预测NCAA男子大学篮球甲级联赛中主队获胜概率。第一种方法有一个先验,调整为铅差和时间流逝的函数。第二种方法是第一种方法的调整版本,其中调整是贝叶斯估计器与时间加权赛前获胜概率的线性组合。将所提出的方法与现有方法进行了比较,表明新方法在估计和预测方面与现有方法具有竞争力或优于现有方法。该实用程序通过2012/2013至2019/2020 NCAA一级男子篮球赛季的应用程序进行了说明。
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引用次数: 2
Clustering of football players based on performance data and aggregated clustering validity indexes 基于成绩数据和聚类效度指标的足球运动员聚类
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-20 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0037
Serhat Emre Akhanli, C. Hennig
Abstract We analyse football (soccer) player performance data with mixed type variables from the 2014-15 season of eight European major leagues. We cluster these data based on a tailor-made dissimilarity measure. In order to decide between the many available clustering methods and to choose an appropriate number of clusters, we use the approach by Akhanli and Hennig (2020. “Comparing Clusterings and Numbers of Clusters by Aggregation of Calibrated Clustering Validity Indexes.” Statistics and Computing 30 (5): 1523–44). This is based on several validation criteria that refer to different desirable characteristics of a clustering. These characteristics are chosen based on the aim of clustering, and this allows to define a suitable validation index as weighted average of calibrated individual indexes measuring the desirable features. We derive two different clusterings. The first one is a partition of the data set into major groups of essentially different players, which can be used for the analysis of a team’s composition. The second one divides the data set into many small clusters (with 10 players on average), which can be used for finding players with a very similar profile to a given player. It is discussed in depth what characteristics are desirable for these clusterings. Weighting the criteria for the second clustering is informed by a survey of football experts.
摘要本文采用混合类型变量分析了2014-15赛季欧洲八大联赛足球运动员的表现数据。我们根据量身定制的不相似性度量对这些数据进行聚类。为了在许多可用的聚类方法之间做出决定并选择适当数量的聚类,我们使用了Akhanli和Hennig(2020)的方法。通过校准聚类有效性指标的聚合来比较聚类和聚类数量。统计与计算30(5):1523-44。这是基于几个验证标准,这些标准涉及聚类的不同期望特征。这些特征是根据聚类的目的选择的,这允许定义一个合适的验证指数作为衡量理想特征的校准单个指数的加权平均值。我们得到两种不同的聚类。第一种方法是将数据集划分为本质上不同的球员的主要组,这可以用于分析球队的组成。第二种方法将数据集分成许多小集群(平均10个玩家),这可以用于寻找与给定玩家非常相似的玩家。深入讨论了这些聚类所需的特征。对第二次聚类的标准进行加权是通过对足球专家的调查得出的。
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引用次数: 1
Optical tracking in team sports 团队运动中的光学跟踪
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2020-0088
Pegah Rahimian, László Toka
Abstract Sports analysis has gained paramount importance for coaches, scouts, and fans. Recently, computer vision researchers have taken on the challenge of collecting the necessary data by proposing several methods of automatic player and ball tracking. Building on the gathered tracking data, data miners are able to perform quantitative analysis on the performance of players and teams. With this survey, our goal is to provide a basic understanding for quantitative data analysts about the process of creating the input data and the characteristics thereof. Thus, we summarize the recent methods of optical tracking by providing a comprehensive taxonomy of conventional and deep learning methods, separately. Moreover, we discuss the preprocessing steps of tracking, the most common challenges in this domain, and the application of tracking data to sports teams. Finally, we compare the methods by their cost and limitations, and conclude the work by highlighting potential future research directions.
体育分析对于教练、球探和球迷来说已经变得至关重要。最近,计算机视觉研究人员通过提出几种自动跟踪球员和球的方法,接受了收集必要数据的挑战。基于收集到的跟踪数据,数据挖掘者能够对球员和球队的表现进行定量分析。通过这项调查,我们的目标是为定量数据分析师提供关于创建输入数据的过程及其特征的基本了解。因此,我们通过提供传统和深度学习方法的综合分类,分别总结了最近的光学跟踪方法。此外,我们还讨论了跟踪的预处理步骤,该领域最常见的挑战,以及跟踪数据在运动队中的应用。最后,对各种方法的成本和局限性进行了比较,并对工作进行了总结,指出了未来可能的研究方向。
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引用次数: 5
MSE-optimal K-factor of the Elo rating system for round-robin tournament 循环赛Elo评分系统的mse最优k因子
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2021-0079
Victor S. Chan
Abstract The Elo rating system contains a coefficient called the K-factor which governs the amount of change to the updated ratings and is often determined by empirical or heuristic means. Theoretical studies on the K-factor have been sparse and not much is known about the pertinent factors that impact its appropriate values in applications. This paper has two main goals: to present a new formulation of the K-factor that is optimal with respect to the mean-squared-error (MSE) criterion in a round-robin tournament setting and to investigate the effects of the relevant variables, including the number of tournament participants n, on the optimal K-factor (based on the model-averaged MSE). It is found that n and the variability of the deviation between the true rating and the pre-tournament rating have a strong influence on the optimal K-factor. Comparisons between the MSE-optimal K-factor and the K-factors from Elo and from the US Chess Federation as a function of n are also provided. Although the results are applicable to other sports in similar settings, the study focuses on chess and makes use of the rating data and the K-factor values from the chess world.
Elo评级系统包含一个称为k因子的系数,该系数控制更新评级的变化量,通常由经验或启发式方法确定。关于k因子的理论研究很少,对于影响其在应用中的适当值的相关因素所知不多。本文有两个主要目标:在循环赛设置中,提出一种关于均方误差(MSE)标准的最佳k因子的新公式,并研究包括比赛参与者数量n在内的相关变量对最优k因子(基于模型平均MSE)的影响。研究发现,n和真实评分与赛前评分偏差的可变性对最优k因子有很强的影响。还提供了mse最优k因子与来自Elo和美国国际象棋联合会的k因子作为n的函数的比较。虽然研究结果也适用于类似环境下的其他体育项目,但本研究的重点是国际象棋,并利用了国际象棋世界的评级数据和k因子值。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the performance of elite level volleyball players 优秀排球运动员竞技水平的评价
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-23 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2021-0056
G. Fellingham
Abstract Evaluation of individuals in a team sport setting is inherently difficult. The level of play of one individual is fundamentally tied to the level of play of the teammates. One way to think about evaluation of individuals is to ‘insert’ the posterior distribution of the parameter that measures individual play into an ‘average’ team, and see how the probability of success (or failure) changes. Using a Bayesian hierarchical logistic model, we can estimate both the average contribution to success of various positions, and the individual contribution of all the players in that position. In this paper, we use data from the 2018 World Championships in Volleyball to model both the position played and the players within each position. Using both the posterior distributions for the mean performance of the different positions, and the posterior distributions for the individual players, we can then estimate the change in the number of points scored for a team with a change from an average player to the individual under consideration. We compute both the points scored above average per set (PAAPS) and the points scored above average per 100 touches (PP100) for 168 men and 168 women playing five different positions. Contributions of the various position groups and of individual players within each position are evaluated and compared.
在团队运动环境中对个人进行评估本身就是困难的。一个人的竞技水平与队友的竞技水平息息相关。考虑个人评估的一种方法是将衡量个人发挥的参数的后验分布“插入”到“平均”团队中,并观察成功(或失败)的概率如何变化。利用贝叶斯层次逻辑模型,我们既可以估计各个位置对成功的平均贡献,也可以估计该位置上所有参与者的个人贡献。在本文中,我们使用2018年世界排球锦标赛的数据来模拟比赛位置和每个位置上的球员。使用不同位置的平均表现的后验分布和个体球员的后验分布,我们就可以估计从平均球员到个体球员的变化对球队得分的影响。我们计算了168名男子和168名女子在5个不同位置上的每一局高于平均得分(PAAPS)和每百次触球高于平均得分(PP100)。评估和比较不同位置组和每个位置内个人球员的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Frontmatter
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-11-26 DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2021-frontmatter4
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
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