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Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models 运行NWP模式对郑州市两次极端暴雨事件实时预报的验证与评价
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.035
Zhong Shui-xin, Zhuang Yan, Hu Sheng, Chen Zi-tong, Ding Wei-yu, Feng Ye-rong, Deng Tao, Liu Xian-tong, Zhang Yan-xia, XU Dao-sheng, Dai Guang-feng, Meng Wei-guang
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引用次数: 8
Implementation of CMA-GFS 3D-Var System on the Yin-Yang Grid CMA-GFS 3D-Var系统在阴阳网格上的实现
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.030
Z. Zhao-rong, Xue Ji-shan, Shen Xue-shun, Liang Xing-liang
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引用次数: 1
Development of 1km-Scale Operational Model in South China 华南地区1公里规模运营模式的发展
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.028
Chen Zi-tong, Dai Guang-feng, Wu Kai-xin, Zhong Shui-xin, XU Dao-sheng
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Surface Exchange Coefficients and Sea Surface Cooling on Tropical Cyclone Simulation 地表交换系数和海面冷却对热带气旋模拟的影响
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2021.033
J. Ming, Fu Liu, Han Zhang
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引用次数: 0
Sea Surface Temperature Extremes of Different Intensity in the China Seas During the Global Warming Acceleration and Hiatus Periods 全球变暖加速与停滞期中国海域不同强度海表温度极值
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.041
Qingyuan Wang, Li Yan, Qingquan Li, Wang Yan
Based on the daily OISST V2 with 0.25o horizontal resolutions, the present study looks into the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) extremes in the China Seas for different segments of the period 1982-2013. The two segments include the warming acceleration period from 1982 to 1997 and the hiatus period from 1998 to 2013 when the global mean surface temperature (GMST) did not significantly increase as expected, or even decreased in some areas. First, we construct the regional average time series over the entire China Seas (15°-45°N, 105°-130°E) for these SST extremes. During the hiatus period, the regionally averaged 10th, 1th and 0.1th percentile of SSTs in each year decreased significantly by 0.40℃, 0.56℃ and 0.58℃ per decade, respectively. The regionally averaged 90th, 99th and 99.9th percentile of SSTs in each year decreased slightly or insignificantly. Our work confirm that the regional hiatus was primarily reflected by wintertime cold extremes. Spatially, the trends of cold extremes in different intensity were non-uniformly distributed. Cold extremes in the near-shore areas were much more sensitive to the global warming hiatus. Hot extremes exhibited non-significant trend in the China Seas during the hiatus period. In short, the variations of the SST extremes in the two periods were non-uniform spatially and asymmetric seasonally. It is unexpected that the hot and cold extremes of each year during 1998-2013 were still higher than those extremes during 1982-1997. It is obvious that compared with the warming acceleration period, hot extremes were far more likely to occur in the recent hiatus as a result of a 0.3℃ warmer shift in the mean temperature distribution. Moreover, hot extremes in the China Seas will be sustained or amplified with the end of warming hiatus and the continuous anthropogenic warming.
基于0.25o水平分辨率的日OISST V2,研究了1982—2013年中国海域不同时段的海温极值变化。这两个时段分别是1982 - 1997年的升温加速期和1998 - 2013年的中断期,这两个时段全球平均地表温度(GMST)没有像预期的那样显著上升,甚至在某些地区有所下降。首先,我们构建了整个中国海域(15°-45°N, 105°-130°E)海温极值的区域平均时间序列。在此期间,每年区域平均海温第10、第1和第0.1百分位分别显著降低0.40℃、0.56℃和0.58℃/ a。区域平均海温90、99和99.9百分位各年略有或不显著下降。我们的工作证实,区域中断主要反映在冬季极端寒冷。从空间上看,不同强度的极寒变化趋势不均匀。近岸地区的极端寒冷对全球变暖的中断更为敏感。断裂期中国海域极端高温趋势不显著。总之,两个时期海温极值的空间变化不均匀,季节变化不对称。1998-2013年的冷热极端值仍高于1982-1997年的冷热极端值。与增温加速期相比,由于平均温度分布偏暖0.3℃,极端高温事件发生的可能性大大增加。此外,随着全球变暖中断期的结束和人为变暖的持续,中国海域极端高温现象将持续或加剧。
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引用次数: 1
Characteristics of Drag Coefficient in Different Coastal Regions of the South China Sea Under Tropical Cyclones–An Observational Study 热带气旋作用下南海不同沿海地区阻力系数特征的观测研究
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.036
Yu Jinnan, Song Li-li, Chen Wen-chao, Zhi Shi-qun, Bian Xueyan, Liu Chun-xia, Huangfu Hui-jun
To investigate the values of 10-m drag coefficient (CD) in different coastal areas under the influence of tropical cyclones, the present study used the observational data from four towers in different coastal areas of the South China Sea (SCS) during six tropical cyclone (TC) passages, and employed the eddy covariance method and the flux profile method. The analysis of footprint showed that the fluxes at Zhizai Island (ZZI), Sanjiao Island (SJI) and Donghai Island (DHI) were influenced basically by the ocean, and the flux at Shangyang Town (SYT) was influenced mainly by the land. The results showed that the dependence relationships of CD on 10-m wind speed (U10) in four different coastal areas under the influence of TCs were different. CD at ZZI and SJI initially increased and then decreased as U10 increased, similar to the pattern over the ocean. CD at ZZI and SJI represented the values over shallow water with seawater depths of ~7 m and ~2 m, respectively. Moreover, the critical wind speed at which CD peaked gradually decreased as the seawater depth became shallower in the coastal areas. CD at DHI and SYT decreased monotonously as U10 increased, similar to the pattern over the land. CD at DHI represented the value over the transition zone from shallow water to coastal land, and CD at SYT represented the value over the coastal land. Meanwhile, the eddy covariance method and the flux profile method were compared at ZZI and SYT during TC passages. It was found that their CD values obtained by the two methods were close. Finally, the parameterizations of observed u* and CD as a function of U10 over four different coastal areas were given under the influence of high winds. These parameterizations of observed CD may be used in high-resolution numerical models for landfalling TC forecast.
为了研究热带气旋影响下南海不同沿海地区10-m阻力系数(CD)的变化,本文利用南海不同沿海地区4座塔6次热带气旋通过的观测资料,采用涡旋相关方差法和通量剖面法。足迹分析表明,直仔岛(ZZI)、三角岛(SJI)和东海岛(DHI)的通量主要受海洋的影响,上阳镇(SYT)的通量主要受陆地的影响。结果表明,在TCs的影响下,4个不同沿海地区的CD对10 m风速(U10)的依赖关系不同。随着U10的增加,ZZI和SJI的CD先升高后降低,与海洋上空的模式相似。ZZI和SJI的CD分别代表海水深度为~7 m和~2 m的浅水上的值。在沿海地区,随着海水深度变浅,CD达到峰值的临界风速逐渐降低。随着U10的增加,DHI和SYT的CD单调降低,与陆地上的模式相似。DHI和SYT的CD分别代表浅水和沿海过渡带的CD值和CD值。同时,比较了涡动相关法和通量剖面法在齐、西两处的变化。结果表明,两种方法所得的CD值接近。最后,给出了在大风影响下四个不同沿海地区观测到的u*和CD随U10的函数的参数化。观测到的CD的这些参数化可以用于高分辨率的数值模式,用于预报TC的着陆。
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引用次数: 0
A New Index About the Walker Circulation 沃克循环的一个新指标
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.028
Shi Dan-dan, Rong Yan-shu, Lyu Xing-yue, WU Fu-ting
The Walker circulation (WC) has always been an important issue in atmospheric science research due to the association between the WC and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and between the WC and ENSO events. In this paper, a new index-Omega index (OMGI)-is constructed for WC characterization based on the NCEP /NCAR reanalysis data of monthly mean vertical velocity in recent 70 years (1948-2017). Results show that the OMGI can accurately depict the variation characteristics of WC on seasonal, annual and decadal time-scales. There is a significant inverse correlation between the OMGI and equatorial eastern and central Pacific SST. Meanwhile, the peak of the OMGI appears ahead of the ENSO peak, and therefore is able to reflect the SST in the equatorial Pacific. Especially, in 35 ENSO events, the peak of the OMGI appears earlier than Nino 3.4 index for 19 times with 2.6 months ahead on average. In 16 El Nino events, the peak of the OMGI occurs ahead of the El Nino for 9 times with 4 months ahead on average. In 19 La Nina events, the OMGI peak arises 10 times earlier than the La Nina peak, with an average of 1.4 months ahead. OMGI shows obvious leading effect and stability over ENSO events with different strengths and types of single peak and multi peaks: the peak of the OMGI keeps about 2-3 months ahead of the ENSO. Compared with other WC indexes such as UWI and SPLI, OMGI has some advantages in the ability to describe WC changes and present the probability and the time of prediction of ENSO event peaks.
沃克环流(WC)一直是大气科学研究中的一个重要问题,因为WC与热带太平洋海面温度(SST)以及WC与ENSO事件之间存在关联。本文根据近70年(1948-2017)NCEP/NCAR月平均垂直速度再分析资料,构造了一个新的WC特征指数Omega指数(OMGI)。结果表明,OMGI可以准确地描述WC在季节、年和十年时间尺度上的变化特征。OMGI与赤道东太平洋和中太平洋SST之间存在显著的负相关。同时,OMGI的峰值出现在ENSO峰值之前,因此能够反映赤道太平洋的SST。特别是在35次ENSO事件中,OMGI的峰值出现在尼诺3.4指数之前19次,平均提前2.6个月。在16次厄尔尼诺事件中,OMGI的峰值出现在厄尔尼诺之前9次,平均提前4个月。在19次拉尼娜事件中,OMGI峰值出现的时间是拉尼娜峰值的10倍,平均提前1.4个月。OMGI对不同强度、不同类型的单峰和多峰ENSO事件具有明显的主导作用和稳定性:OMGI的峰值比ENSO提前约2-3个月。与UWI和SPLI等WC指数相比,OMGI在描述WC变化、呈现ENSO事件峰值预测概率和时间方面具有一定的优势。
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引用次数: 0
A STUDY ON THE PREDICT ABILITY OF GRAPES MODEL OVER SOUTH CHINA: COMPARISONS BY TWO INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS BETWEEN ECMWF AND NCEP 华南地区葡萄模型的预报能力研究:ecmwf和ncep两种初始条件的比较
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-03-28 DOI: 10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.003
Zhong Shuixin, Chen Zi-tong
This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions between two global models (GMs), i. e., the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), on the accuracy of the Global / Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) forecasts for south China. A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over Guangdong Province was verified. Both ICs exhibited cold biases over south China, as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta (PRD). In particular, the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than NCEP. In general, the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south China. Moreover, GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the ECWMF. The results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.
本文旨在评估欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和国家环境预报中心(NCEP)两个全球模式(GMs)之间不同模式初始化条件(ICs)和横向边界条件对全球/区域同化与预报系统(GRAPES)对中国南方的预报精度的影响。对雨季3个月的模拟结果进行了分析,并对广东省暴雨的具体情况进行了验证。华南地区和珠三角地区均表现出较强的偏冷,珠江三角洲地区则表现出较强的偏干。特别是来自ECMWF的ic对珠三角地区的偏冷更强,结构也比NCEP更详细。总的来说,与ECMWF相比,NCEP提供了一个真实的华南地面温度。此外,NCEP初始化的GRAPES对降水位置和强度的模拟优于ECWMF。本文提出的结果可作为使用由GMs驱动的区域模式的业务数值天气预报的一般准则。
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引用次数: 1
A COMBINED VERIFICATION METHOD FOR PREDICTABILITY OF PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS OVER EAST ASIA BASED ON ENSEMBLE FORECAST 基于集合预报的东亚持续强降雨事件可预测性联合验证方法
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-03-28 DOI: 10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.004
Wu Zhi-peng, Chen Jing, Zhang Han-bin, Chen Fa-jing, Zhuang Xiao-ran
Persistent Heavy Rainfall (PHR) is the most influential extreme weather event in Asia in summer, and thus it has attracted intensive interests of many scientists. In this study, operational global ensemble forecasts from China Meteorological Administration(CMA) are used, and a new verification method applied to evaluate the predictability of PHR is investigated. A metrics called Index of Composite Predictability (ICP) established on basic verification indicators, i. e., Equitable Threat Score(ETS) of 24h accumulated precipitation and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of Height at 500hPa, are selected in this study to distinguish“good”and“poor”prediction from all ensemble members. With the use of the metrics of ICP, the predictability of two typical PHR events in June 2010 and June 2011 is estimated. The results show that the“good member”and“poor member”can be identified by ICP and there is an obvious discrepancy in their ability to predict the key weather system that affects PHR.“Good member”shows a higher predictability both in synoptic scale and mesoscale weather system in their location, duration and the movement. The growth errors for “poor” members is mainly due to errors of initial conditions in northern polar region. The growth of perturbation errors and the reason for better or worse performance of ensemble member also have great value for future model improvement and further research.
持续性强降雨(PHR)是亚洲夏季最具影响力的极端天气事件,引起了许多科学家的高度关注。本文利用中国气象局(CMA)全球综合预报资料,探讨了一种新的PHR可预测性评价方法。在基本验证指标(即24小时累积降水的公平威胁得分(ETS)和500hPa高度的均方根误差(RMSE))的基础上,本研究选择了一个称为综合可预测性指数(ICP)的指标来区分所有集合成员的“好”和“差”预测。利用ICP指标,估算了2010年6月和2011年6月两个典型PHR事件的可预测性。结果表明,ICP可以识别“好成员”和“差成员”,对影响PHR的关键天气系统的预测能力存在明显差异。“好成员”展示了一个更高的可预测性在天气尺度和中尺度天气系统的位置,持续时间和运动。“贫穷”成员的增长误差主要是由于北极地区初始条件的误差。微扰误差的增长以及集合成员性能好坏的原因对未来模型的改进和进一步研究也具有重要的价值。
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引用次数: 1
STUDY ON SENSITIVITY OF WIND FIELD VARIATION TO STRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE STORMS 风场变化对对流风暴结构和发展的敏感性研究
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学 Q4 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.16555/J.1006-8775.2020.006
Wu Hai-ying, Zeng Ming-jian, Mei Haixia, Zhang Bing
In order to study the impacts of wind field variations in the middle and lower troposphere on the development and structure of storms, we carried out numerical experiments on cases of severe convection in the Jianghuai area under the background of cold vortex on April 28, 2015. The results show that the structure and development of convective storms are highly sensitive to the changes of wind fields, and the adjustment of wind fields in the middle or lower troposphere will lead to significant changes in the development and structure of storms. When the wind field in the middle or lower troposphere is weakened, the development of convective storms attenuates to some extent compared with that in the control experiment, and the ways of attenuation in the two experiments are different. In the attenuation test of wind field at the middle level, convective storms obviously weaken at all stages in its development, while for the wind field at the low level, the convective storms weaken only in the initial stage of storm. On the contrary, the enhancement of the wind field in the middle or lower troposphere is conducive to the development of convection, especially the enhancement in the middle troposphere. In contrast, the convective storms develop rapidly in this test, as the most intensive one. The wind field variations have significant impacts on the structure and organization of the storm. The enhancement of wind field in the middle troposphere facilitates the intension of the middle-level rotation in convective storm, the reduction of the storm scale, and the organized evolution of convective storms. The strengthening of the wind field in the lower troposphere is conducive to the development of the low-level secondary circulation of the storm and the cyclonic vorticity at the middle and low levels on the inflowing side of the storms.
为了研究对流层中下层风场变化对风暴发展和结构的影响,我们于2015年4月28日在冷涡背景下对江淮地区强对流进行了数值实验。结果表明:对流风暴的结构和发展对风场的变化高度敏感,对流层中下层风场的调整将导致风暴的发展和结构发生显著变化。当对流层中下层风场减弱时,对流风暴的发展与对照实验相比有一定程度的衰减,且衰减方式不同。在中层风场衰减试验中,对流风暴在其发展的各个阶段都明显减弱,而低层风场中,对流风暴仅在风暴的初始阶段减弱。相反,对流层中下层风场的增强有利于对流的发展,尤其是对流层中下层风场的增强。与此相反,本次试验中对流风暴发展迅速,强度最大。风场的变化对风暴的结构和组织有重要影响。对流层中层风场的增强有利于对流风暴中层旋转的增强,有利于风暴尺度的减小,有利于对流风暴的有组织演化。对流层低层风场的加强有利于风暴低层二次环流的发展和风暴流入侧中低层气旋涡度的形成。
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引用次数: 1
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热带气象学报
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