Journal of The Royal Society Interface最新文献

Previous work has failed to fit classic SEIR epidemic models satisfactorily to the prevalence data of the famous English boarding school 1978 influenza A/H1N1 outbreak during the children's pandemic. It is still an open question whether a biologically plausible model can fit the prevalence time series and the attack rate correctly. To construct the final model, we first used an intentionally very flexible and overfitted discrete-time epidemiologic model to learn the epidemiological features from the data. The final model was a susceptible (S) - exposed (E) - infectious (I) - confined-to-bed (B) - convalescent (C) - recovered (R) model with time delay (constant residence time) in E and I compartments and multi-stage (Erlang-distributed residence time) in B and C compartments. We simultaneously fitted the reported B and C prevalence curves as well as the attack rate (proportion of children infected during the outbreak). The non-exponential residence times were crucial for good fits. The estimates of the generation time and the basic reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) were biologically reasonable. A simplified discrete-time model was built and fitted using the Bayesian procedure. Our work not only provided an answer to the open question, but also demonstrated an approach to constructive model generation.

Protests involving brute force are growing in number and are viewed as a likely source of increased collective violence in industrialized nations. Yet, our scientific understanding of how violent protests are related to a leader's social media communications during protests remains nascent. Here, we analyse new data from the 6 January 'march on the US Capitol' to quantify the links between leadership, social media and levels of violence. Using data on thousands of live footage videos, Trump's tweets and rally speech, other rally speeches and #StopTheSteal tweets, we apply Granger regression methods to analyse the links between former President Trump's tweets, #StopTheSteal tweets, rally speeches and the severity and duration of outbreaks of violence and weapons use during the riot. We find that Trump's tweets predict bursts in rioters' levels and duration of violence and weapons use. Trump's tweets also predict changes in the volume and sentiments of #StopTheSteal tweets, which in turn explain additional variance in levels of violence and weapons use over the course of the riot. Our findings reveal new patterns of behaviour that link an authority figure's online behaviour during a protest and the shift from peaceful protesting to violence.

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has spread widely throughout Italy since its introduction, with significant public health implications. We examine how decadal temperature trends and sub-monthly heatwave events affect its climate-driven geographical distribution and temporal dynamics using a new regional-scale dynamical Aedes model. The model is calibrated using [Formula: see text] years of ovitrap data for Emilia-Romagna and reproduces the vector seasonality and, to a lesser extent, its inter-annual variability. Simulated vector density hotspots overlap with densely populated areas in Rome, Milan, Naples, Foggia, Catania, Palermo, Lecce, Cagliari, Genoa, Turin and large urban centres in Emilia-Romagna. Lower risk is simulated over the Central Apennine mountains and the Alps. At decadal time scale, we simulate a lengthening of the active mosquito season by 0.5-3 weeks per decade, with the vector becoming homodynamic in southern Italy. Depending on the climatic setting, heatwaves can increase or reduce vector populations and, in some locations, can temporarily decrease mosquito populations. Such decreases can be followed by a population rebound and overshoot. Given the model's skill in reproducing key spatio-temporal Ae. albopictus features, there is potential to develop an early warning system to inform control efforts at a national scale.

Convection-enhanced delivery (CED) can effectively overcome the blood-brain barrier by infusing drugs directly into diseased sites in the brain using a catheter, but its clinical performance still needs to be improved. This is strongly related to the highly anisotropic characteristics of brain white matter, which results in difficulties in controlling drug transport and distribution in space. In this study, the potential to improve the delivery of six drugs by adjusting the placement of the infusion catheter is examined using a mathematical model and accurate numerical simulations that account simultaneously for the interstitial fluid (ISF) flow and drug transport processes in CED. The results demonstrate the ability of this direct infusion to enhance ISF flow and therefore facilitate drug transport. However, this enhancement is highly anisotropic, subject to the orientation of local axon bundles and is limited within a small region close to the infusion site. Drugs respond in different ways to infusion direction: the results of our simulations show that while some drugs are almost insensitive to infusion direction, this strongly affects other compounds in terms of isotropy of drug distribution from the catheter. These findings can serve as a reference for planning treatments using CED.

A simple lateral dynamic walker, with swing leg dynamics and three adjustable input parameters, is used to study how motor regulation affects frontal-plane stepping. Motivated by experimental observations and phenomenological models, we imposed task-level multi-objective regulation targeting the walker's optimal lateral foot placement at each step. The regulator prioritizes achieving step width and lateral body position goals to varying degrees by choosing a mixture parameter. Our model thus integrates a lateral mechanical template, which captures the fundamental mechanics of frontal-plane walking, with a lateral motor regulation template, an empirically verified model of how humans manipulate lateral foot placements in a goal-directed manner. The model captures experimentally observed stepping fluctuation statistics and demonstrates how linear empirical models of stepping dynamics can emerge from first-principles nonlinear mechanics. We find that task-level regulation gives rise to a goal-equivalent manifold in the system's extended state space of mechanical states and inputs, a subset of which contains a continuum of period-1 gaits forming a semistable set: perturbations off of any of its gaits result in transients that return to the set, though typically to different gaits.

Intestinal parasitic worms are widespread throughout the world, causing chronic infections in humans and animals. However, very little is known about the locomotion of the worms in the host gut. We studied the movement of Heligmosomoides bakeri, naturally infecting mice, and used as an animal model for roundworm infections. We investigated the locomotion of H. bakeri in simplified environments mimicking key physical features of the intestinal lumen, i.e. medium viscosity and intestinal villi topology. We found that the motion sequence of these nematodes is non-periodic, but the migration could be described by transient anomalous diffusion. Aggregation as a result of biased, enhanced-diffusive locomotion of nematodes in sex-mixed groups was detected. This locomotion is probably stimulated by mating and reproduction, while single nematodes move randomly (diffusive). Natural physical obstacles such as high mucus-like viscosity or villi topology slowed down but did not entirely prevent nematode aggregation. Additionally, the mean displacement rate of nematodes in sex-mixed groups of 3.0 × 10^-3 mm s^-1 in a mucus-like medium is in good agreement with estimates of migration velocities of 10^-4 to 10^-3 mm s^-1 in the gut. Our data indicate H. bakeri motion to be non-periodic and their migration random (diffusive-like), but triggerable by the presence of kin.

Brain waste is largely cleared via diffusion and advection in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). CSF flows through a pathway referred to as the glymphatic system, which is also being targeted for delivering drugs to the brain. Despite the importance of solute transport, no brain-wide models for predicting clearance and delivery through perivascular pathways and adjacent parenchyma existed. We devised such a model by upgrading an existing model of CSF flow in the mouse brain to additionally solve advection-diffusion equations, thereby estimating solute transport. We simulated steady-state transport of 3 kDa dextran injected proximal to the perivascular space (PVS) of the middle cerebral artery, mimicking in vivo experiments. We performed a sensitivity analysis of 11 biological properties of PVSs and brain parenchyma by repeatedly simulating solute transport with varying parameter values. Parameter combinations that led to a large total pressure gradient, poor CSF perfusion or a steep solute gradient were deemed unrealistic. Solute concentrations in parenchyma were most sensitive to changes in pial PVS size, as this parameter linearly affects volume flow rates. We also found that realistic transport requires both highly permeable penetrating PVSs and high-resistance parenchyma. This study highlights the potential of brain-wide models to provide insights into solute transport processes.

When a hovering hummingbird performs a rapid escape manoeuvre in response to a perceived threat from the front side, its body may go through simultaneous pitch, yaw and roll rotations. In this study, we examined the inertial coupling of the three-axis body rotations and its effect on the flight mechanics of the manoeuvre using analyses of high-speed videos as well as high-fidelity computational modelling of the aerodynamics and inertial forces. We found that while a bird's pitch-up was occurring, inertial coupling between yaw and roll helped slow down and terminate the pitch, thus serving as a passive control mechanism for the manoeuvre. Furthermore, an inertial coupling between pitch-up and roll can help accelerate yaw before the roll-yaw coupling. Different from the aerodynamic mechanisms that aircraft and animal flyers typically rely on for flight control, we hypothesize that inertial coupling is a built-in mechanism in the flight mechanics of hummingbirds that helps them achieve superb aerial agility.

When individuals interact in groups, the evolution of cooperation is traditionally modelled using the framework of public goods games. These models often assume that the return of the public goods depends linearly on the fraction of contributors. In contrast, in real-life public goods interactions, the return can depend on the size of the investor pool as well. Here, we consider a model in which the multiplication factor (marginal per capita return) for the public goods depends linearly on how many contribute, which results in a nonlinear model of public goods. This simple model breaks the curse of dominant defection found in linear public goods interactions and gives rise to richer dynamical outcomes in evolutionary settings. We provide an in-depth analysis of the more varied decisions by the classical rational player in nonlinear public goods interactions as well as a mechanistic, microscopic derivation of the evolutionary outcomes for the stochastic dynamics in finite populations and in the deterministic limit of infinite populations. This kind of nonlinearity provides a natural way to model public goods with diminishing returns as well as economies of scale.