Journal of The Royal Society Interface最新文献

The Great Gatsby Curve measures the relationship between income inequality and intergenerational income persistence. By using genealogical data of over 245 000 mentor-mentee pairs and their academic publications from 22 different disciplines, this study demonstrates that an academic Great Gatsby Curve exists as well, in the form of a positive correlation between academic impact inequality and the persistence of impact across academic generations. We also provide a detailed breakdown of academic persistence, showing that the correlation between the impact of mentors and that of their mentees has increased over time, indicating an overall decrease in academic intergenerational mobility. We analyse such persistence across a variety of dimensions, including mentorship types, gender and institutional prestige.

Blood flow reconstruction in the vasculature is important for many clinical applications. However, in clinical settings, the available data are often quite limited. For instance, transcranial Doppler ultrasound is a non-invasive clinical tool that is commonly used in clinical settings to measure blood velocity waveforms at several locations. This amount of data is grossly insufficient for training machine learning surrogate models, such as deep neural networks or Gaussian process regression. In this work, we propose a Gaussian process regression approach based on empirical kernels constructed by data generated from physics-based simulations-enabling near-real-time reconstruction of blood flow in data-poor regimes. We introduce a novel methodology to reconstruct the kernel within the vascular network. The proposed kernel encodes both spatiotemporal and vessel-to-vessel correlations, thus enabling blood flow reconstruction in vessels that lack direct measurements. We demonstrate that any prediction made with the proposed kernel satisfies the conservation of mass principle. The kernel is constructed by running stochastic one-dimensional blood flow simulations, where the stochasticity captures the epistemic uncertainties, such as lack of knowledge about boundary conditions and uncertainties in vasculature geometries. We demonstrate the performance of the model on three test cases, namely, a simple Y-shaped bifurcation, abdominal aorta and the circle of Willis in the brain.

Cilia can beat collectively in the form of a metachronal wave, and we investigate how near-field hydrodynamic interactions between cilia can influence the collective response of the beating cilia. Based on the theoretical framework developed in the work of Meng et al. (Meng et al. 2021 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 118, e2102828118), we find that the first harmonic mode in the driving force acting on each individual cilium can determine the direction of the metachronal wave after considering the finite size of the beating trajectories, which is confirmed by our agent-based numerical simulations. The stable wave patterns, e.g. the travelling direction, can be controlled by the driving forces acting on the cilia, based on which one can change the flow field generated by the cilia. This work can not only help to understand the role of the hydrodynamic interactions in the collective behaviours of cilia, but can also guide future designs of artificial cilia beating in the desired dynamic mode.

Cross-sections of cell shapes in a tissue monolayer typically resemble a tiling of convex polygons. Yet, examples exist where the polygons are not convex with curved cell-cell interfaces, as seen in the adaxial epidermis. To date, two-dimensional vertex models predicting the structure and mechanics of cell monolayers have been mostly limited to convex polygons. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a framework to study curvy cell-cell interfaces at the subcellular scale within vertex models by using a parametrized curve between vertices that is expanded in a Fourier series and whose coefficients represent additional degrees of freedom. This extension to non-convex polygons allows for cells with the same shape index, or dimensionless perimeter, to be, for example, either elongated or globular with lobes. In the presence of applied, anisotropic stresses, we find that local, subcellular curvature or buckling can be energetically more favourable than larger scale deformations involving groups of cells. Inspired by recent experiments, we also find that local, subcellular curvature at cell-cell interfaces emerges in a group of cells in response to the swelling of additional cells surrounding the group. Our framework, therefore, can account for a wider array of multicellular responses to constraints in the tissue environment.

Symptom propagation occurs when the symptom set an individual experiences is correlated with the symptom set of the individual who infected them. Symptom propagation may dramatically affect epidemiological outcomes, potentially causing clusters of severe disease. Conversely, it could result in chains of mild infection, generating widespread immunity with minimal cost to public health. Despite accumulating evidence that symptom propagation occurs for many respiratory pathogens, the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we conducted a scoping literature review for 14 respiratory pathogens to ascertain the extent of evidence for symptom propagation by two mechanisms: dose-severity relationships and route-severity relationships. We identify considerable heterogeneity between pathogens in the relative importance of the two mechanisms, highlighting the importance of pathogen-specific investigations. For almost all pathogens, including influenza and SARS-CoV-2, we found support for at least one of the two mechanisms. For some pathogens, including influenza, we found convincing evidence that both mechanisms contribute to symptom propagation. Furthermore, infectious disease models traditionally do not include symptom propagation. We summarize the present state of modelling advancements to address the methodological gap. We then investigate a simplified disease outbreak scenario, finding that under strong symptom propagation, isolating mildly infected individuals can have negative epidemiological implications.

We demonstrate that heterogeneity in the perceived risks associated with infection within host populations amplifies chances of superspreading during the crucial early stages of epidemics. Under this behavioural model, individuals less concerned about dangers from infection are more likely to be infected and attend larger sized (riskier) events, where we assume event sizes remain unchanged. For directly transmitted diseases such as COVID-19, this leads to infections being introduced at rates above the population prevalence to those events most conducive to superspreading. We develop an interpretable, computational framework for evaluating within-event risks and derive a small-scale reproduction number measuring how the infections generated at an event depend on transmission heterogeneities and numbers of introductions. This generalizes previous frameworks and quantifies how event-scale patterns and population-level characteristics relate. As event duration and size grow, our reproduction number converges to the basic reproduction number. We illustrate that even moderate levels of heterogeneity in the perceived risks of infection substantially increase the likelihood of disproportionately large clusters of infections occurring at larger events, despite fixed overall disease prevalence. We show why collecting data linking host behaviour and event attendance is essential for accurately assessing the risks posed by invading pathogens in emerging stages of outbreaks.

In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinical-epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks. Sexual contact was hypothesized as the primary transmission route, and the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected. Because of the stigma associated with sexually transmitted infections, the real burden of mpox could be masked. We quantified the basic reproduction number (R ₀) and the underestimated fraction of mpox cases in 16 countries, from the onset of the outbreak until early September 2022, using Bayesian inference and a compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-/low-risk populations) and two-route (sexual/non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) was harnessed to identify underestimation determinants. Estimated R ₀ ranged between 1.37 (Canada) and 3.68 (Germany). The underestimation rates for the high- and low-risk populations varied between 25-93% and 65-85%, respectively. The estimated total number of mpox cases, relative to the reported cases, is highest in Colombia (3.60) and lowest in Canada (1.08). In the ML analysis, two clusters of countries could be identified, differing in terms of attitudes towards the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community and the importance of religion. Given the substantial mpox underestimation, surveillance should be enhanced, and country-specific campaigns against the stigmatization of MSM should be organized, leveraging community-based interventions.

Lassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100 000 to 300 000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. There is reported asynchrony between peak infection in the rodent population and peak Lassa fever risk among people, probably owing to differing seasonal contact rates. Here, we developed a susceptible-infected-recovered ([Formula: see text])-based model of LASV dynamics in its rodent host, M. natalensis, with a persistently infected class and seasonal birthing to test the impact of changes to seasonal birthing in the future owing to climate and land use change. Our simulations suggest shifting rodent birthing timing and synchrony will alter the peak of viral prevalence, changing risk to people, with viral dynamics mainly stable in adults and varying in the young, but with more infected individuals. We calculate the time-average basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text], for this infectious disease system with periodic changes to population sizes owing to birthing using a time-average method and with a sensitivity analysis show four key parameters: carrying capacity, adult mortality, the transmission parameter among adults and additional disease-induced mortality impact the maintenance of LASV in M. natalensis most, with carrying capacity and adult mortality potentially changeable owing to human activities and interventions.

The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.

Mathematical models in ecology and epidemiology must be consistent with observed data in order to generate reliable knowledge and evidence-based policy. Metapopulation systems, which consist of a network of connected sub-populations, pose technical challenges in statistical inference owing to nonlinear, stochastic interactions. Numerical difficulties encountered in conducting inference can obstruct the core scientific questions concerning the link between the mathematical models and the data. Recently, an algorithm has been proposed that enables computationally tractable likelihood-based inference for high-dimensional partially observed stochastic dynamic models of metapopulation systems. We use this algorithm to build a statistically principled data analysis workflow for metapopulation systems. Via a case study of COVID-19, we show how this workflow addresses the limitations of previous approaches. The COVID-19 pandemic provides a situation where mathematical models and their policy implications are widely visible, and we revisit an influential metapopulation model used to inform basic epidemiological understanding early in the pandemic. Our methods support self-critical data analysis, enabling us to identify and address model weaknesses, leading to a new model with substantially improved statistical fit and parameter identifiability. Our results suggest that the lockdown initiated on 23 January 2020 in China was more effective than previously thought.