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The Impact of Recent National Policies and Health Outbreaks on U.S. E-Cigarette Sales 最近的国家政策和卫生疫情对美国电子烟销售的影响
Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3920023
D. Kenkel
We conduct interrupted time-series analysis to study the impacts of national policies and two health outbreaks on e-cigarette retail sales in the U.S. We find little evidence that the national policies were associated with sustained reductions in total e-cigarettes sales. When national policies restricted the sales of certain flavors, the drop in that flavor category’s sales was offset by increases in sales in the remaining flavor categories. In contrast, after an outbreak of lung injuries apparently linked to vaping, total e-cigarette sales fell sharply, and then remained flat during COVID-19.
我们进行了中断时间序列分析,以研究国家政策和两次健康爆发对美国电子烟零售销售的影响。我们发现几乎没有证据表明国家政策与电子烟总销售的持续减少有关。当国家政策限制某些口味的销售时,该口味类别的销售下降被其他口味类别的销售增长所抵消。相比之下,在明显与电子烟有关的肺损伤爆发后,电子烟的总销量急剧下降,然后在COVID-19期间保持平稳。
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引用次数: 0
Overreaction to Capital Taxation in Saving Decisions 储蓄决策对资本税的过度反应
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3880664
Kelin Lu
This paper studies the response of saving decisions to two alternative types of capital taxation, i.e., wealth tax and capital income tax. I conduct a lifecycle experiment using Amazon Mechanical Turk, where subjects make dynamic saving decisions. The subjects exhibit an overreaction to wealth taxes but not to capital income taxes: they save significantly less with introducing a wealth tax than with a financially equivalent decrease in capital returns. Furthermore, I build a parsimonious behavioral model of individual optimization to characterize this misreaction. Finally, I quantitatively illustrate the implication of misreaction bias for optimal capital taxation analysis in an overlapping generations model with the household’s misreaction bias. The results show that a household’s underreaction (overreaction) bias generates a welfare gain (loss) for the economy. The optimal capital tax rate decreases as households exhibit greater overreaction bias and vice versa.
本文研究了储蓄决策对财富税和资本所得税两种资本税的反应。我用Amazon Mechanical Turk做了一个生命周期实验,在这个实验中,受试者做出动态的储蓄决定。研究对象对财富税表现出过度反应,但对资本所得税却没有:与资本回报在财务上相当的减少相比,他们在征收财富税时的储蓄要少得多。此外,我建立了一个个人优化的简约行为模型来描述这种错误反应。最后,我在一个具有家庭错误反应偏差的重叠代模型中定量说明了错误反应偏差对最优资本税收分析的含义。结果表明,家庭的反应不足(反应过度)偏差会给经济带来福利收益(损失)。当家庭表现出更大的过度反应偏差时,最优资本税率会降低,反之亦然。
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引用次数: 2
Fallacy of Fiscal Discipline: Spirit of MMT Through Mathematical Analysis 财政纪律的谬误:MMT精神的数学分析
Pub Date : 2021-08-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3908281
Yasuhito Tanaka
According to the concept of "fiscal discipline" public finance must be balanced, at least in the long run. The school of thought known as MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), which has been gaining attention recently, rejects this idea. However, it is often pointed out that MMT lacks the mathematical analysis used in standard economics discussions. This study aims to provide a simple theoretical and mathematical basis for the skeleton of the MMT argument, while maintaining the basics of the neoclassical microeconomic framework, such as utility maximization of consumers by means of utility function and budget constraint, and equilibrium of supply and demand of good, under perfect competition with constant returns to scale technology. Using a simple overlapping generations (OLG) model with pay-as-you-go pension system that includes economic growth due to technological progress, we will show the following results. The budget deficit equals the increase in people's savings (net of pay-as-you-go pensions), and the accumulated amount of the budget deficit equals their savings. The budget deficit is the cause and the savings is the result, not the other way around. The budget deficit is created by the government, which in turn determines income, which in turn determines the savings. The budget deficit creates the savings, not that the savings finance the budget deficit. Reducing the budget deficit will reduce savings, income, and consumption.
根据“财政纪律”的概念,公共财政至少在长期内必须保持平衡。被称为MMT(现代货币理论)的思想流派最近受到了关注,它反对这种观点。然而,经常有人指出,MMT缺乏标准经济学讨论中使用的数学分析。本研究旨在为MMT理论的框架提供一个简单的理论和数学基础,同时保持新古典微观经济学框架的基础,如在规模技术报酬不变的完全竞争条件下,通过效用函数和预算约束实现消费者的效用最大化,以及商品的供求均衡。使用一个简单的代际重叠(OLG)模型,其中包括由于技术进步而产生的经济增长的现收现付养老金制度,我们将显示以下结果。预算赤字等于人们储蓄的增加(扣除现收现付养老金),而预算赤字的累计金额等于他们的储蓄。预算赤字是原因,储蓄是结果,而不是相反。预算赤字是由政府创造的,而政府又决定了收入,而收入又决定了储蓄。预算赤字创造了储蓄,而不是储蓄为预算赤字融资。减少预算赤字将减少储蓄、收入和消费。
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引用次数: 0
The Why and How of Quality-Differentiated Demand 质量差异化需求的原因和方式
Pub Date : 2021-07-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3866230
Charles L Adams
Product quality is often a principal consideration in consumer decisions, yet there is no systematic treatment of such considerations in the undergraduate microeconomics core. Several recently published articles/ teaching notes address this matter by exploring the logic underlying quality considerations in consumer choice and the efficacy of markets in responding to those choices. This paper provides a brief overview and summary of the main themes of these earlier publications along with issues raised in the review process.
产品质量通常是消费者决策的主要考虑因素,然而在本科微观经济学核心中没有对这些考虑因素进行系统的处理。最近发表的几篇文章/教学笔记探讨了这个问题,探讨了消费者选择中潜在的质量考虑的逻辑,以及市场对这些选择的反应效率。本文简要概述和总结了这些早期出版物的主题以及在审查过程中提出的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the Effect of Soda Taxes Using a Dynamic Model of Rational Addiction 用理性成瘾的动态模型评价汽水税的效果
Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3892506
Jong Yeob Kim, Masakazu Ishihara
The obesity rate has grown to epidemic proportions in the United States. Recent scientific studies suggest that excess intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is one of the primary contributors to weight gain. One option to address the growing obesity epidemic is to discourage SSB consumption through fiscal policies such as excising a soda tax. In this paper, we apply the Becker-Murphy model of rational addiction to present evidence that consumers are rationally addicted to soda consumption. Motivated by the evidence, we build a dynamic structural model to quantify the impact of soda taxes on soda purchases and consumption and study the role of addiction in influencing this impact. Using the parameter estimates, we conduct counterfactual analyses based on realistic policy scenarios and evaluate how different tax policies would affect soda purchases. The policy experiments indicate that imposing a soda tax of 1 cent per ounce would reduce soda consumption by 28.3% and addiction level by 31.7%. We find that 20.6% of the reduction in consumption is due to the reduction in the addiction level. We further investigate how these taxes affect consumer and social welfare through a change in addiction level. We find that addiction plays a critical role because a mild reduction in addiction level in the Berkeley tax scenario (1 cent per ounce on regular soda) benefits consumer and social welfare; however, in the Philadelphia tax scenario (1.5 cents per ounce on regular and diet sodas), the reduction in addiction level is too large, and both consumer and social welfare are worse off than before.
在美国,肥胖率已经上升到流行病的程度。最近的科学研究表明,过量摄入含糖饮料(SSBs)是体重增加的主要原因之一。解决日益严重的肥胖问题的一个选择是,通过征收碳酸饮料税等财政政策来抑制碳酸饮料的消费。在本文中,我们运用理性成瘾的Becker-Murphy模型来证明消费者对碳酸饮料消费是理性成瘾的。在证据的激励下,我们建立了一个动态结构模型来量化苏打税对苏打购买和消费的影响,并研究成瘾在影响这种影响中的作用。使用参数估计,我们进行了基于现实政策情景的反事实分析,并评估了不同的税收政策如何影响苏打水的购买。政策实验表明,每盎司征收1美分的汽水税将使汽水消费减少28.3%,成瘾程度减少31.7%。我们发现,20.6%的消费减少是由于成瘾程度的降低。我们进一步研究了这些税收如何通过成瘾水平的变化影响消费者和社会福利。我们发现上瘾起着关键作用,因为在伯克利税情景中,上瘾水平的轻微降低(普通苏打水每盎司1美分)有利于消费者和社会福利;然而,在费城的税收方案中(普通苏打水和无糖苏打水每盎司1.5美分),成瘾水平的降低幅度太大,消费者和社会福利都比以前更糟。
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引用次数: 2
Revisiting the Consumption Puzzle: Evidence for Spain 重新审视消费之谜:西班牙的证据
Pub Date : 2021-07-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3891459
J. Maria Labeaga Azcona, B. Sanchez-Robles
We examine empirically the path of consumption growth over time by looking at detailed microdata for the Spanish economy. We estimate different versions of a Euler equation linking consumption growth to the real interest rate and other socioeconomic and demographic variables. We work with two thorough datasets of microdata which compile rich economic, social and demographic information for households over two periods, 1977-1983 and 1985-1996. We find that consumption growth displays a positive and significant correlation with the interest rate, implying an intertemporal elasticity of substitution in the range 0.30-0.576, consistent with the literature. Our estimations also show that consumption growth is negatively correlated with retirement, thus suggesting a discontinuity in consumption which implies a departure from the standard life cycle model. Policy reforms which increase the level of real pensions have a positive impact on consumption. Results are robust to alternative specifications and control variables, and suggest the presence of precautionary saving over 1977-83.
我们通过观察西班牙经济的详细微观数据,实证地考察了消费增长随时间的路径。我们估计了将消费增长与实际利率以及其他社会经济和人口变量联系起来的欧拉方程的不同版本。我们使用了两个完整的微观数据集,这些数据集汇编了1977-1983年和1985-1996年两个时期家庭的丰富经济、社会和人口信息。我们发现,消费增长与利率呈显著正相关,表明代际替代弹性在0.30-0.576范围内,与文献一致。我们的估计还表明,消费增长与退休负相关,从而表明消费的不连续性,这意味着与标准生命周期模型的背离。提高实际养老金水平的政策改革对消费有积极影响。结果对其他规范和控制变量具有鲁棒性,并表明1977-83年期间存在预防性储蓄。
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引用次数: 0
Do Social Media Dominate Government Report Cards in Influencing Nursing Home Demand? 社会媒体主导政府成绩单影响养老院需求吗?
Pub Date : 2021-07-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3531964
Yuanchen Li, Lauren Xiaoyuan Lu, S. F. Lu
Social media have emerged as innovative channels to disseminate quality information to consumers in a variety of service settings. Their influence has recently spread to healthcare services, for which government report cards have long been established to disclose standardized quality information to the public. Given the presence of government report cards, do social media affect consumer demand of healthcare services? If so, which quality information channel has a stronger effect? We seek to answer these questions in the context of U.S. nursing homes by studying consumer ratings on Yelp and government ratings on Nursing Home Compare, both of which adopt a five-star quality rating scale and are accessible on the Internet. We apply the method of difference-in-differences with continuous treatment intensity and instrumental variables to conduct our analysis. Using nursing home resident admissions as the proxy for consumer demand, we find that higher Yelp ratings positively influenced consumer demand, particularly the demand of Medicare-covered consumers. Furthermore, Yelp ratings exerted a stronger effect on consumer demand than government ratings. This dominance of Yelp ratings over government ratings was stronger in markets with higher Yelp penetration or markets with lower consumer education level. Although higher Yelp ratings were associated with increased net incomes and total margins, we find little evidence that nursing homes made quality improvement in response to their Yelp ratings.
社交媒体已经成为在各种服务环境中向消费者传播高质量信息的创新渠道。他们的影响最近已经蔓延到医疗服务领域,政府早就建立了报告卡,向公众披露标准化的质量信息。鉴于政府成绩单的存在,社交媒体是否会影响消费者对医疗保健服务的需求?如果是,那么哪个质量信息渠道的作用更大呢?我们试图在美国养老院的背景下回答这些问题,通过研究消费者在Yelp上的评级和政府在养老院比较上的评级,这两个都采用了五星级的质量评级量表,可以在互联网上访问。我们采用差分法与连续治疗强度和工具变量进行我们的分析。以养老院居民入院率作为消费者需求的代表,我们发现较高的Yelp评分对消费者需求有正向影响,特别是医疗保险消费者的需求。此外,Yelp评级对消费者需求的影响比政府评级更大。在Yelp渗透率较高的市场或消费者教育水平较低的市场,Yelp评级对政府评级的主导地位更为明显。虽然较高的Yelp评级与净收入和总利润率的增加有关,但我们发现很少有证据表明养老院在回应其Yelp评级时做出了质量改进。
{"title":"Do Social Media Dominate Government Report Cards in Influencing Nursing Home Demand?","authors":"Yuanchen Li, Lauren Xiaoyuan Lu, S. F. Lu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3531964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3531964","url":null,"abstract":"Social media have emerged as innovative channels to disseminate quality information to consumers in a variety of service settings. Their influence has recently spread to healthcare services, for which government report cards have long been established to disclose standardized quality information to the public. Given the presence of government report cards, do social media affect consumer demand of healthcare services? If so, which quality information channel has a stronger effect? We seek to answer these questions in the context of U.S. nursing homes by studying consumer ratings on Yelp and government ratings on Nursing Home Compare, both of which adopt a five-star quality rating scale and are accessible on the Internet. We apply the method of difference-in-differences with continuous treatment intensity and instrumental variables to conduct our analysis. Using nursing home resident admissions as the proxy for consumer demand, we find that higher Yelp ratings positively influenced consumer demand, particularly the demand of Medicare-covered consumers. Furthermore, Yelp ratings exerted a stronger effect on consumer demand than government ratings. This dominance of Yelp ratings over government ratings was stronger in markets with higher Yelp penetration or markets with lower consumer education level. Although higher Yelp ratings were associated with increased net incomes and total margins, we find little evidence that nursing homes made quality improvement in response to their Yelp ratings.","PeriodicalId":176300,"journal":{"name":"Microeconomics: Intertemporal Consumer Choice & Savings eJournal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121313685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic Determinants of Loan Delinquencies: Evidence from the US Peer-to-Peer Lending Market 贷款违约的宏观经济决定因素:来自美国p2p贷款市场的证据
Pub Date : 2021-04-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3836404
Asror Nigmonov, Syed Shams, Khorshed Alam
The study documented in this paper utilises a probit regression analysis to empirically investigate the key macroeconomic factors that influence credit risk in the peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market. By aggregating the United States (US) state-level data with LendingClub’s loan book covering the period from 2008–2019, this study examines multiple factors related to default risks of loans issued by P2P lending platforms. Our results show that a higher interest rate and inflation increase the probability of default in the P2P lending market. We also find that the impact of interest rate on the probability of default is significantly higher for loans with lower ratings. The study’s outcomes, by paving the way to future market best practices, are applicable to P2P lending platforms and investors in their default estimation of loans.
本文采用概率回归分析对P2P借贷市场中影响信用风险的关键宏观经济因素进行了实证研究。本研究将2008年至2019年期间的美国州级数据与LendingClub的贷款账簿进行汇总,考察了与P2P借贷平台发放的贷款违约风险相关的多个因素。我们的研究结果表明,较高的利率和通货膨胀增加了P2P借贷市场的违约概率。我们还发现,对于评级较低的贷款,利率对违约概率的影响显著较高。该研究的结果为未来的市场最佳实践铺平了道路,适用于P2P借贷平台和投资者对贷款的违约估计。
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引用次数: 2
Retirees in Profile: Evaluating Five Distinct Lifestyles in Retirement 退休人员简介:评估五种不同的退休生活方式
Pub Date : 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3891866
Z. Ebrahimi
As approximately 70 million Baby Boomers make their way into and through retirement, increased attention is being given to how they approach retirement spending as well as what constitutes a satisfactory lifestyle in retirement. One thing is clear: There is little homogeneity when it comes to the path retirees navigate. Factors such as available assets and income in retirement, debt, health status, marital status, and even gender impact retirement needs and outcomes. What are the common profiles of retirees, and what can we learn from them? Based on a survey of 2,000 retired households aged 62 to 75 and with fewer than $1 million in financial assets, the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) developed a series of “retiree profiles” based on retirees’ financial statuses, including the levels of financial assets, annual income, debt, and homeownership, in addition to a few spending-behavior factors. From there, we identified distinguishing characteristics — demographics, retirement income, debt, health insurance, long-term-care coverage, and spending patterns — of the retiree profiles. We also examined the spending-down strategies and plans used by each type of retiree. And finally, we looked at how retirees of different types rated their retirement life satisfaction. We found: • Average Retirees were more likely to report low levels of financial assets ($99,000 or less) and intermediate levels of income (between $40,000 and $100,000 annually), at 58 and 74 percent, respectively. They were more likely to be married than not, and they reported good health status on average. Just over half of Average Retirees thought they’d saved enough or more than enough for retirement. Six in ten Average Retirees seek to maintain or grow their financial assets in retirement. When it comes to sources of income, defined benefit (DB) plans play a major role for Average Retirees, along with Social Security. Nearly half had credit card debt, and almost as many also had a car loan. Half spend $2,999 or less monthly in retirement; 1 in 5 spends less than $2,000 in retirement. One in five Average Retirees allocates 60 percent or more of their budget on their home. The majority of Average Retirees tend to believe that their standard of living in retirement is unchanged from what it was during their working years. And the Average Retiree rates their level of satisfaction as 7.8 on a scale from 1 to 10. • Affluent Retirees were more likely to have high levels of financial assets ($320,000 or more) and income ($100,000 or more annually), the majority were mortgage-free homeowners with no debt, and the majority of those with debt reported it as easily manageable. This group had the highest likelihood of being married among retirement groups, with the majority of respondents being men, primarily having a college education or higher. The majority of Affluent Retirees believe they have saved enough money for retirement, and only 1 in 3 said they plan to spend all or signific
随着大约7000万婴儿潮一代步入或即将退休,人们越来越关注他们如何处理退休支出,以及什么是令人满意的退休生活方式。有一件事是明确的:在退休人员的道路上,几乎没有什么同质性。退休时的可用资产和收入、债务、健康状况、婚姻状况,甚至性别等因素都会影响退休需求和结果。退休人员的共同特征是什么?我们可以从中学到什么?雇员福利研究所(EBRI)对2000个年龄在62岁至75岁之间、金融资产不足100万美元的退休家庭进行了调查,根据退休人员的财务状况,包括金融资产水平、年收入、债务和房屋所有权,以及一些消费行为因素,制定了一系列“退休人员概况”。从那里,我们确定了退休人员档案的显著特征——人口统计、退休收入、债务、健康保险、长期护理覆盖范围和支出模式。我们还研究了每种退休人员使用的缩减开支策略和计划。最后,我们观察了不同类型的退休人员如何评价他们的退休生活满意度。我们发现:•平均退休人员更有可能报告低水平的金融资产(99,000美元或以下)和中等水平的收入(每年4万至10万美元),分别为58%和74%。他们结婚的可能性比不结婚的要大,而且他们的平均健康状况良好。超过一半的普通退休人员认为他们已经为退休储蓄了足够或更多的钱。十分之六的普通退休人员寻求在退休后维持或增加他们的金融资产。说到收入来源,固定收益(DB)计划和社会保障计划对普通退休人员起着重要作用。近一半的人有信用卡债务,几乎同样多的人也有汽车贷款。一半的人退休后每月花费不超过2999美元;五分之一的人退休后的支出不到2000美元。五分之一的普通退休人员将60%或更多的预算用于买房。大多数平均退休人员倾向于认为,他们退休后的生活水平与工作期间的生活水平没有变化。平均退休人员对自己的满意度为7.8分(从1分到10分)。•富裕的退休人员更有可能拥有高水平的金融资产(32万美元或以上)和收入(每年10万美元或以上),大多数人是没有债务的无抵押房主,而且大多数有债务的人表示债务很容易管理。这一群体在退休人群中结婚的可能性最高,大多数受访者是男性,主要受过大学或更高的教育。大多数富裕的退休人员认为他们已经为退休储蓄了足够的钱,只有三分之一的人说他们计划花掉全部或大部分退休账户。这一群体的退休人员也比其他群体的退休人员获得更多类型的退休收入,其中最常被引用的是固定收益养老金计划和个人储蓄。只有五分之一的人有信用卡和汽车贷款债务。1 / 2的人每月的支出在2000美元到4000美元之间,1 / 4的人将25%或更多的预算用于可自由支配的开支。大多数人认为他们的生活水平没有改变,近四分之一的人认为他们的生活水平在退休后有所提高。平均而言,在所有退休人员群体中,这一群体的退休人员对自己的退休生活最满意。退休人员更有可能拥有中等水平的金融资产(在9.9万美元至32万美元之间)和收入。37%的人有抵押贷款,而二分之一的人没有抵押贷款。三分之一的人没有债务,42%的人有很容易管理的债务。他们中的大多数人都已婚,拥有大学或更高的学历。近四分之三的人表示,他们的退休储蓄足够,甚至超过了他们的需求,超过一半的人计划只增加、维持或花掉他们金融资产的一小部分。在这个群体中,除了社会保障之外,更多的退休人员将工作场所退休储蓄计划(如401(k)计划和个人退休账户(IRAs))作为他们的主要收入来源。信用卡和汽车贷款债务是最常见的债务形式,三分之一的人表示至少有其中一种债务。这一群体中有一半的退休人员每月支出不到3000美元,而大多数人表示他们可以负担得起目前的支出水平。在这群退休人员中,大多数人认为他们的生活水平自工作以来没有改变;然而,四分之一的人认为它已经下降了。
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引用次数: 1
Stable Mechanisms in Controlled School Choice 控制择校的稳定机制
Pub Date : 2021-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3806916
Minoru Kitahara, Yasunori Okumura
We consider a controlled school choice model where students are divided into several types such as socioeconomically advantaged and disadvantaged. The priority for a school is dependent on the type distribution of the assignment. Our model is a generalization of several models in previous studies such as those in which the priorities are based on type quotas and/or reserves. We consider the case where the priority for each school is represented by a weak order and introduce a stable and group strategy-proof mechanism. Moreover, if the priority order for each school is restricted to be a strict order, then the mechanism is also a student optimal stable one. We generalize the model allowing that the priority orders for some schools are not weak, but partial. In this case, a stable mechanism is also introduced.
我们考虑了一个受控的学校选择模型,其中学生分为几种类型,如社会经济优势和劣势。学校的优先级取决于作业的类型分布。我们的模型是以前研究中几个模型的概括,例如那些优先级基于类型配额和/或储备的模型。我们考虑了每个学校的优先级由弱顺序表示的情况,并引入了一个稳定的、防群体策略的机制。此外,如果将各学校的优先顺序限制为严格顺序,则该机制也是学生最优稳定机制。我们对模型进行了推广,使得一些学校的优先顺序不是弱的,而是部分的。在这种情况下,还引入了稳定机制。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Microeconomics: Intertemporal Consumer Choice & Savings eJournal
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