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Live-chat agent assignments to heterogeneous e-customers under imperfect classification 不完全分类下异构电子客户的实时聊天代理分配
Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.1145/2070710.2070715
Paulo B. Góes, N. Ilk, Wei T. Yue, J. Leon Zhao
Many e-commerce firms provide live-chat capability on their Web sites to promote product sales and to offer customer support. With increasing traffic on e-commerce Web sites, providing such live-chat services requires a good allocation of service resources to serve the customers. When resources are limited, firms may consider employing priority-processing and reserving resources for high-value customers. In this article, we model a reserve-based priority-processing policy for e-commerce systems that have imperfect customer classification. Two policy decisions considered in the model are: (1) the number of agents exclusively reserved for high-value customers, and (2) the configuration of the classification system. We derive explicit expressions for average waiting times of high-value and low-value customer classes and define a total waiting cost function. Through numerical analysis, we study the impact of these two policy decisions on average waiting times and total waiting costs. Our analysis finds that reserving agents for high-value customers may have negative consequences for such customers under imperfect classification. Further, we study the interaction between the two policy decisions and discuss how one decision should be modified with respect to a change in the other one in order to keep the waiting costs minimized.
许多电子商务公司在其网站上提供实时聊天功能,以促进产品销售和提供客户支持。随着电子商务网站流量的增加,提供这种实时聊天服务需要很好的分配服务资源来为客户服务。当资源有限时,企业可以考虑采用优先处理,为高价值客户保留资源。在本文中,我们为具有不完美客户分类的电子商务系统建模了一个基于储备的优先级处理策略。模型中考虑的两个决策是:(1)专门为高价值客户保留的代理数量,以及(2)分类系统的配置。我们导出了高价值和低价值客户类别的平均等待时间的显式表达式,并定义了总等待成本函数。通过数值分析,研究了这两种政策对平均等待时间和总等待成本的影响。我们的分析发现,在分类不完善的情况下,为高价值客户保留座席可能会对这类客户产生负面影响。进一步,我们研究了两个决策之间的相互作用,并讨论了一个决策应该如何根据另一个决策的变化进行修改,以保持等待成本最小。
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引用次数: 15
Designing a social-broadcasting-based business intelligence system 设计一个基于社交广播的商业智能系统
Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.1145/2070710.2070713
Huaxia Rui, Andrew Whinston
The rise of social media has fundamentally changed the way information is produced, disseminated, and consumed in the digital age, which has profound economic and business effects. Among many different types of social media, social broadcasting networks such as Twitter in the U.S. and “Weibo” in China are particularly interesting from a business perspective. In the case of Twitter, the huge amounts of real-time data with extremely rich text, along with valuable structural information, makes Twitter a great platform to build Business Intelligence (BI) systems. We propose a framework of social-broadcasting-based BI systems that utilizes real-time information extracted from these data with text mining techniques. To demonstrate this framework, we designed and implemented a Twitter-based BI system that forecasts movie box office revenues during the opening weekend and forecasts daily revenue after 4 weeks. We found that incorporating information from Twitter could reduce the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by 44% for the opening weekend and by 36% for total revenue. For daily revenue forecasting, including Twitter information into a baseline model could reduce forecasting errors by 17.5% on average. On the basis of these results, we conclude that social-broadcasting-based BI systems have great potential and should be explored by both researchers and practitioners.
社交媒体的兴起从根本上改变了数字时代信息的生产、传播和消费方式,对经济和商业产生了深远的影响。在众多不同类型的社交媒体中,从商业角度来看,美国的Twitter和中国的“微博”等社交广播网络尤其有趣。以Twitter为例,大量的实时数据和极其丰富的文本,以及有价值的结构信息,使Twitter成为构建商业智能(BI)系统的绝佳平台。我们提出了一个基于社交广播的BI系统框架,该系统利用文本挖掘技术从这些数据中提取的实时信息。为了演示这个框架,我们设计并实现了一个基于twitter的BI系统,该系统可以预测首映周末的电影票房收入,并预测4周后的每日收入。我们发现,结合Twitter的信息可以将首映周末的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)降低44%,总收入降低36%。对于每日收入预测,将Twitter信息纳入基线模型可以平均减少17.5%的预测误差。基于这些结果,我们得出结论,基于社交广播的商业智能系统具有巨大的潜力,值得研究人员和实践者共同探索。
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引用次数: 38
Toward a broader vision for Information Systems 面向更广阔的信息系统视野
Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.1145/2070710.2070711
J. Nunamaker, R. Briggs
In December of 2009, several founders of the Information Systems (IS) academic discipline gathered for a panel discussion at the International Conference on Information Systems to present their visions for the future of the field, and their comments were summarized in the inaugural issue of TMIS [Davis et al., 2010; J. F. J. Nunamaker et al., 1991]. To assure a robust future, they argued, IS journals, conferences, reviewers, promotion committees, teachers, researchers, and curriculum developers must broaden the scope of IS. This article explores the need for a broader vision to drive future development of the IS discipline.
2009年12月,信息系统(IS)学科的几位创始人聚集在国际信息系统会议上进行小组讨论,展示了他们对该领域未来的愿景,他们的评论被总结在TMIS的创刊号中[Davis et al., 2010;[j].武汉大学学报(自然科学版)。他们认为,为了确保一个强大的未来,信息系统期刊、会议、审稿人、推广委员会、教师、研究人员和课程开发者必须扩大信息系统的范围。本文探讨了需要一个更广阔的视野来推动信息系统学科的未来发展。
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引用次数: 107
Decision support for containing pandemic propagation 控制大流行传播的决策支持
Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.1145/2070710.2070714
Hina Arora, T. S. Raghu, A. Vinze
This research addresses complexities inherent in dynamic decision making settings represented by global disasters such as influenza pandemics. By coupling a theoretically grounded Equation-Based Modeling (EBM) approach with more practically nuanced Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach we address the inherent heterogeneity of the “influenza pandemic” decision space more effectively. In addition to modeling contributions, results and findings of this study have three important policy implications for pandemic containment; first, an effective way of checking the progression of a pandemic is a multipronged approach that includes a combination of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Second, mutual aid is effective only when regions that have been affected by the pandemic are sufficiently isolated from other regions through non-pharmaceutical interventions. When regions are not sufficiently isolated, mutual aid can in fact be detrimental. Finally, intraregion non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school closures are more effective than interregion nonpharmaceutical interventions such as border closures.
这项研究解决了以流感大流行等全球性灾害为代表的动态决策环境中固有的复杂性。通过将理论基础的基于方程的建模(EBM)方法与更实际细致的基于agent的建模(ABM)方法相结合,我们更有效地解决了“流感大流行”决策空间的内在异质性。除了建模贡献外,本研究的结果和发现对大流行控制具有三个重要的政策含义;首先,控制大流行进展的一种有效方法是多管齐下,包括药物和非药物干预措施相结合。第二,只有当受大流行病影响的区域通过非药物干预措施与其他区域充分隔离时,互助才有效。当区域没有充分孤立时,互助实际上可能是有害的。最后,关闭学校等区域内非药物干预措施比关闭边境等区域间非药物干预措施更有效。
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引用次数: 6
Who does what: Collaboration patterns in the wikipedia and their impact on article quality 谁做什么:维基百科中的协作模式及其对文章质量的影响
Pub Date : 2011-06-01 DOI: 10.1145/1985347.1985352
Jun Liu, S. Ram
The quality of Wikipedia articles is debatable. On the one hand, existing research indicates that not only are people willing to contribute articles but the quality of these articles is close to that found in conventional encyclopedias. On the other hand, the public has never stopped criticizing the quality of Wikipedia articles, and critics never have trouble finding low-quality Wikipedia articles. Why do Wikipedia articles vary widely in quality? We investigate the relationship between collaboration and Wikipedia article quality. We show that the quality of Wikipedia articles is not only dependent on the different types of contributors but also on how they collaborate. Based on an empirical study, we classify contributors based on their roles in editing individual Wikipedia articles. We identify various patterns of collaboration based on the provenance or, more specifically, who does what to Wikipedia articles. Our research helps identify collaboration patterns that are preferable or detrimental for article quality, thus providing insights for designing tools and mechanisms to improve the quality of Wikipedia articles.
维基百科文章的质量是有争议的。一方面,现有的研究表明,不仅人们愿意贡献文章,而且这些文章的质量也接近传统百科全书。另一方面,公众从来没有停止过对维基百科文章质量的批评,而批评者从来没有遇到过发现低质量维基百科文章的困难。为什么维基百科的文章质量参差不齐?我们研究了协作与维基百科文章质量之间的关系。我们表明维基百科文章的质量不仅取决于不同类型的贡献者,还取决于他们如何合作。基于一项实证研究,我们根据贡献者在编辑维基百科文章中的角色对他们进行分类。我们根据出处,或者更具体地说,根据谁对维基百科文章做了什么,来识别各种合作模式。我们的研究有助于确定对文章质量有利或有害的协作模式,从而为设计工具和机制提供见解,以提高维基百科文章的质量。
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引用次数: 189
Analyzing information systems researchers' productivity and impacts: A perspective on the H index 信息系统研究人员生产力及其影响分析:基于H指数的视角
Pub Date : 2011-06-01 DOI: 10.1145/1985347.1985348
P. H. Hu, Hsinchun Chen
Quantitative assessments of researchers' productivity and impacts are crucial for the information systems (IS) discipline. Motivated by its growing popularity and expanding use, we offer a perspective on the h index, which refers to the number of papers a researcher has coauthored with at least h citations each. We studied a partial list of 232 top IS researchers who received doctoral degrees between 1957 and 2003 and chose Google Scholar as the source for our analyses. At the individual level, we attempted to identify some of the most productive, high-impact researchers, as well as those who exhibited impressive paces of productivity. At the institution level, we revealed some institutions with relatively more productive researchers, as well as institutions that had produced more productive researchers. We also analyzed the overall IS community by examining the primary research areas of productive scholars identified by our analyses. We then compared their h index scores with those of top scholars in several related disciplines
研究人员的生产力和影响的定量评估对信息系统学科至关重要。受其日益普及和广泛使用的推动,我们提供了一个关于h指数的观点,h指数指的是研究人员共同撰写的论文数量,每篇论文至少被引用h次。我们研究了1957年至2003年间获得博士学位的232名顶尖IS研究人员的部分名单,并选择谷歌学术作为我们分析的来源。在个人层面上,我们试图找出一些最具生产力、影响力最大的研究人员,以及那些表现出令人印象深刻的生产力的研究人员。在机构层面,我们揭示了一些研究人员相对高产的机构,以及一些研究人员高产的机构。我们还通过检查我们的分析确定的生产性学者的主要研究领域来分析整个IS社区。然后,我们将他们的h指数得分与几个相关学科的顶尖学者进行了比较
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引用次数: 7
Trust in a specific technology: An investigation of its components and measures 对特定技术的信任:对其组成部分和措施的调查
Pub Date : 2011-06-01 DOI: 10.1145/1985347.1985353
D. McKnight, Michelle Carter, J. Thatcher, Paul F. Clay
Trust plays an important role in many Information Systems (IS)-enabled situations. Most IS research employs trust as a measure of interpersonal or person-to-firm relations, such as trust in a Web vendor or a virtual team member. Although trust in other people is important, this article suggests that trust in the Information Technology (IT) itself also plays a role in shaping IT-related beliefs and behavior. To advance trust and technology research, this article presents a set of trust in technology construct definitions and measures. We also empirically examine these construct measures using tests of convergent, discriminant, and nomological validity. This study contributes to the literature by providing: (a) a framework that differentiates trust in technology from trust in people, (b) a theory-based set of definitions necessary for investigating different kinds of trust in technology, and (c) validated trust in technology measures useful to research and practice.
信任在许多信息系统(IS)启用的情况下起着重要作用。大多数信息系统研究将信任作为人际关系或个人与公司关系的衡量标准,例如对网络供应商或虚拟团队成员的信任。尽管对他人的信任很重要,但本文认为,对信息技术(IT)本身的信任也在形成与IT相关的信念和行为方面发挥着作用。为了推进信任与技术的研究,本文提出了一套技术信任的构建、定义和措施。我们也实证检验这些结构措施使用检验收敛,判别,和法效度。本研究通过提供:(a)区分对技术的信任和对人的信任的框架,(b)研究不同类型的技术信任所需的一套基于理论的定义,以及(c)验证对研究和实践有用的技术信任措施,为文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 671
Explaining U.S. consumer behavior with news sentiment 用新闻情绪解释美国消费者行为
Pub Date : 2011-06-01 DOI: 10.1145/1985347.1985350
Matthias W. Uhl
We introduce a novel dataset with a news sentiment index that was constructed from a selection of over 300,000 newspaper articles from five of the top ten U.S. newspapers by circulation. By constructing ARMA models, we show that news and consumer sentiment, when combined with other macroeconomic variables, achieve statistically significant results to explain changes in private consumption. We make three distinct findings with respect to sentiment in consumption behavior models: first, both consumer and news sentiment add explanatory power and statistical significance to conventional consumer behavior models. Second, consumer sentiment, measured by the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, adds more explanatory power and statistical significance than news sentiment when tested individually. Third, news sentiment is able to determine the signs of all coefficients in the model correctly, whereas consumer sentiment does not. In general, we conclude that news sentiment is a useful variable to add in consumer behavior models, especially when coupled with consumer sentiment and other macroeconomic variables. Tested individually, news sentiment is as good a proxy as personal income for explaining private consumption growth when tested individually.
我们引入了一个具有新闻情绪指数的新数据集,该数据集是从美国发行量排名前十的报纸中的五家报纸中选出的30多万篇报纸文章中构建的。通过构建ARMA模型,我们表明,当与其他宏观经济变量相结合时,新闻和消费者情绪在解释私人消费变化方面取得了统计上显著的结果。关于消费行为模型中的情绪,我们有三个明显的发现:首先,消费者情绪和新闻情绪都为传统的消费者行为模型增加了解释力和统计意义。其次,由密歇根大学消费者信心指数衡量的消费者信心,在单独测试时比新闻情绪增加了更多的解释力和统计意义。第三,新闻情绪能够正确地确定模型中所有系数的符号,而消费者情绪则不能。总的来说,我们得出的结论是,新闻情绪是一个有用的变量,可以添加到消费者行为模型中,特别是当与消费者情绪和其他宏观经济变量相结合时。单独测试时,新闻情绪和个人收入一样,都能很好地解释私人消费增长。
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引用次数: 21
Risk hedging in storage grid markets: Do options add value to forwards? 储能电网市场的风险对冲:期权能为远期交易增加价值吗?
Pub Date : 2011-06-01 DOI: 10.1145/1985347.1985351
Anna Ye Du, Sanjukta Das, R. Gopal, R. Ramesh
Internet storage services allow businesses to move away from maintaining their own internal storage networks. Service providers currently follow a utility pricing model which translates to them absorbing all the risk that arises from the fluctuating storage needs of their customers. The risk borne by the Internet storage service providers has large revenue implications as Internet startups and smaller companies, which face significant demand stochasticity, constitute an important segment of their clientele. We develop an option pricing mechanism to hedge against this risk and evaluate its effectiveness vis-à-vis forward contracts. We obtain the conditions under which options dominate forward contracts and the trade-offs involved when the provider has to decide on appropriate pricing mechanisms. Our empirical study uses publicly obtainable traffic data of Amazon S3 clients to validate the analytical results. We show that providers can significantly benefit from including options in their risk-hedging portfolio, especially when there is less variation in the costs faced by the buyers in building their own data networks as opposed to using cloud services.
互联网存储服务允许企业不再维护自己的内部存储网络。服务提供商目前遵循公用事业定价模式,这意味着他们承担了客户存储需求波动带来的所有风险。互联网存储服务提供商承担的风险对收入有很大影响,因为互联网初创企业和较小的公司是其客户的重要组成部分,它们面临着显著的需求随机性。我们开发了一种期权定价机制来对冲这种风险,并评估其对-à-vis远期合约的有效性。我们得到了期权在远期合约中占主导地位的条件,以及供应商必须决定适当定价机制时所涉及的权衡。我们的实证研究使用公开可获得的Amazon S3客户端的流量数据来验证分析结果。我们表明,供应商可以从在其风险对冲组合中包含期权中显著获益,特别是当买方在构建自己的数据网络时所面临的成本变化较小,而不是使用云服务时。
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引用次数: 5
Digital goods and markets: Emerging issues and challenges 数字产品和市场:新兴问题和挑战
Pub Date : 2011-06-01 DOI: 10.1145/1985347.1985349
S. Bhattacharjee, R. Gopal, J. Marsden, R. Sankaranarayanan
This research commentary examines the changing landscape of digital goods, and discusses important emerging issues for IS researchers to explore. We begin with a discussion of the major technological milestones that have shaped digital goods industries such as music, movies, software, books, video games, and recently emerging digital goods. Our emphasis is on economic and legal issues, rather than on design science or sociological issues. We explore how research has been influenced by the major technological milestones and discuss the major findings of prior research. Based on this, we offer a roadmap for future researchers to explore the emergent changes in the digital goods arena, covering different aspects of digital goods industries such as risk management, value chain, legal aspects, transnational and cross-cultural issues.
本研究评论考察了数字商品不断变化的景观,并讨论了重要的新兴问题,供IS研究人员探索。我们首先讨论了影响数字产品行业的主要技术里程碑,如音乐、电影、软件、书籍、视频游戏和最近出现的数字产品。我们的重点是经济和法律问题,而不是设计科学或社会学问题。我们将探讨研究如何受到主要技术里程碑的影响,并讨论先前研究的主要发现。在此基础上,我们为未来研究人员探索数字商品领域的新兴变化提供了路线图,涵盖了数字商品行业的不同方面,如风险管理、价值链、法律方面、跨国和跨文化问题。
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引用次数: 29
期刊
ACM Trans. Manag. Inf. Syst.
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