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2013 IEEE Conference on Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)最新文献

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Model-based diagnosis of gear fault under variable loading condition 变载荷条件下齿轮故障的模型诊断
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621410
S. Leem, Jooho Choi
A model-based method is proposed to diagnose the gear fault in the gearbox under variable loading condition with the objective to apply it to the wind turbine CMS. A simple test bed is installed to illustrate the approach, which consists of motors and a pair of spur gears. A crack is imbedded at the tooth root of a gear. Tachometer-based order analysis, being independent on the shaft speed, is employed as a signal processing technique to identify the fault, which includes detecting the location and extracting the adequate feature. Lumped parameter dynamic model is used to simulate the operation of the test bed. In the model, the parameter related with the fault is inversely estimated by minimizing the difference between the simulated and measured features. Finally the parameter is used to estimate the crack size based on the regression model made by finite element stiffness analyses of a set of gears with imbedded crack. The results of estimated crack are validated by comparing with the actual ones of seeded crack.
提出了一种基于模型的变载荷工况下齿轮故障诊断方法,目的是将其应用于风力发电机组CMS。安装了一个简单的试验台来说明该方法,该试验台由电动机和一对正齿轮组成。在齿轮的齿根处嵌有一条裂纹。基于转速表的阶数分析是一种独立于轴转速的信号处理技术,主要包括检测故障位置和提取适当的特征。采用集总参数动态模型对试验台的运行进行了仿真。在该模型中,通过最小化模拟特征与实测特征之间的差值来逆估计与故障相关的参数。最后,利用该参数对一组嵌缝齿轮进行有限元刚度分析建立的回归模型进行裂纹尺寸估计。通过与种子裂纹的实际情况进行比较,验证了估计裂纹的结果。
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引用次数: 2
Online condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction of particle contaminated lubrication oil 颗粒污染润滑油在线状态监测及剩余使用寿命预测
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621415
Junda Zhu, Jae Yoon, D. He, Bin Qiu, Eric Bechhoefer
To increase wind energy production rate, there is a pressing need to improve the wind turbine availability and reduce the operational and maintenance costs. The safety and reliability of a functioning wind turbine depend largely on the protective properties of the lubrication oil for its drive train subassemblies such as gearbox and means for lubrication oil condition monitoring and degradation detection. The purpose of lubrication oil condition monitoring and degradation detection is to determine whether the oil has deteriorated to such a degree that it no longer fulfills its function. In this paper, particle contamination of lubrication oil and the remaining useful life (RUL) of the particle contaminated lubrication oil are investigated. Physical models are developed to quantify the relationship between particle contamination level and the outputs of commercially available online oil dielectric and viscosity sensors. The effectiveness of the developed models is then validated using laboratory experiments. In particular, the remaining useful life prediction of degraded lubrication oil with viscosity and dielectric constant data using particle filtering is presented. A simulation case study is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed technique.
为了提高风能的生产效率,迫切需要提高风力发电机的利用率,降低运行和维护成本。风力发电机运行的安全性和可靠性在很大程度上取决于润滑油对其传动系统组件(如齿轮箱)的保护性能以及润滑油状态监测和退化检测手段。润滑油状态监测和劣化检测的目的是确定润滑油是否已经劣化到不再履行其功能的程度。本文对润滑油的颗粒污染和颗粒污染润滑油的剩余使用寿命进行了研究。开发了物理模型来量化颗粒污染水平与市售在线油介电和粘度传感器输出之间的关系。然后通过实验室实验验证了所开发模型的有效性。特别提出了利用粒子滤波的方法,利用粘度和介电常数数据预测退化润滑油的剩余使用寿命。仿真研究表明了所开发技术的有效性。
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引用次数: 22
Cost Benefit Analysis for condition based maintenance 基于状态维修的成本效益分析
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621451
N. Verma, Sreevidya Khatravath, A. Salour
Investment in maintenance of machines is significant for industries. In this paper, we suggest a Cost Benefit Analysis model and review most commonly used maintenance strategies like corrective maintenance and preventive maintenance with the model. Here, we presented a method to calculate net revenue generated by machine for optimal and cost effective alternative for machine maintenance. Method used for calculating net revenue is improved using factors such as labor cost, failure rate, utilization factor etc. Formulated net revenue provides satisfactory results when compared with the industrial information on machine maintenance strategies. Realistic data are used to analyze revenue with different maintenance strategies. From the results it is concluded that though condition based maintenance as a maintenance strategy has high initial investment cost with time it has high revenue generation compared to other maintenance polices.
对工业来说,机器维修方面的投资很重要。在本文中,我们提出了一个成本效益分析模型,并用该模型回顾了最常用的维护策略,如纠正性维护和预防性维护。在这里,我们提出了一种计算机器产生的净收入的方法,以获得机器维护的最佳和成本有效的替代方案。利用人工成本、故障率、利用率等因素对净收益的计算方法进行了改进。当与机器维护策略的工业信息进行比较时,制定的净收入提供了令人满意的结果。使用实际数据分析不同维护策略的收益。结果表明,尽管基于状态的维护作为一种维护策略具有较高的初始投资成本和时间成本,但与其他维护策略相比,它具有较高的收益。
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引用次数: 15
Towards systems level prognostics in the Cloud 迈向云中的系统级预测
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621449
Budhaditya Deb, Mohak Shah, S. Evans, Manoj Mehta, Anthony Gargulak, Tom Lasky
Many application systems are transforming from device centric architectures to cloud based systems that leverage shared compute resources to reduce cost and maximize reach. These systems require new paradigms to assure availability and quality of service. In this paper, we discuss the challenges in assuring Availability and Quality of Service in a Cloud Based Application System. We propose machine learning techniques for monitoring systems logs to assess the health of the system. A web services data set is employed to show that variety of services can be clustered to different service classes using a k-means clustering scheme. Reliability, Availability, and Serviceability (RAS) logs and Job logs dataset from high performance computing system is employed to show that impending fatal errors in the system can be predicted from the logs using an SVM classifier. These approaches illustrate the feasibility of methods to monitor the systems health and performance of compute resources and hence can be used to manage these systems for high availability and quality of service for critical tasks such as health care monitoring in the cloud.
许多应用程序系统正在从以设备为中心的体系结构转变为基于云的系统,这些系统利用共享计算资源来降低成本并最大化覆盖范围。这些系统需要新的范例来确保服务的可用性和质量。在本文中,我们讨论了在基于云的应用系统中保证可用性和服务质量所面临的挑战。我们建议使用机器学习技术来监控系统日志,以评估系统的健康状况。使用一个web服务数据集来展示使用k-means聚类方案可以将各种服务聚类到不同的服务类。利用高性能计算系统的可靠性、可用性和可服务性(RAS)日志和作业日志数据集,利用SVM分类器可以从日志中预测系统中即将发生的致命错误。这些方法说明了监控系统运行状况和计算资源性能的方法的可行性,因此可用于管理这些系统,以实现关键任务(如云中的医疗保健监控)的高可用性和服务质量。
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引用次数: 6
Uncertainty quantification of fusion prognostics for lithium-ion battery remaining useful life estimation 锂离子电池剩余使用寿命估算融合预测的不确定性量化
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621441
Datong Liu, Yue Luo, Limeng Guo, Yu Peng
The uncertainty of prognostics and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation for the lithium-ion battery is emphasized in the battery management system (BMS). Many machine learning algorithms and statistical methods can not only realize the RUL prediction but also provide the probability density function (PDF) as the prognostic uncertainty representation, involving particle filter (PF), Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), etc. This paper presents a fusion RUL prediction approach with PF algorithm and data-driven autoregression (AR) algorithm for lithium-ion battery. Moreover, a framework to quantitatively analyze and evaluate the PDF distribution of the lithium-ion battery RUL prediction is presented. The probability confidence interval estimation, PDF histogram and distribution hypothesis test are included in quantifying the uncertainty. These quantitative analysis results can be meaningful for lithium-ion battery health management and maintenance. The experimental results with the battery data of NASA Ames Prognostics Data Repository show that the proposed framework can achieve the quantification of PDF to introduce the reference for the corresponding maintenance and management. The proposed work also shows potential prospective for industrial application.
在电池管理系统(BMS)中,对锂离子电池的预测和剩余使用寿命(RUL)估计的不确定性进行了研究。许多机器学习算法和统计方法不仅可以实现RUL预测,而且可以提供概率密度函数(PDF)作为预测的不确定性表示,包括粒子滤波(PF)、相关向量机(RVM)等。提出了一种基于PF算法和数据驱动自回归(AR)算法的锂离子电池RUL预测融合方法。在此基础上,提出了锂离子电池RUL预测PDF分布的定量分析和评价框架。量化不确定性的方法包括概率置信区间估计、PDF直方图和分布假设检验。这些定量分析结果对锂离子电池的健康管理和维护具有重要意义。NASA艾姆斯预测数据库电池数据的实验结果表明,所提出的框架可以实现PDF的量化,为相应的维护和管理提供参考。所提出的工作也显示出潜在的工业应用前景。
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引用次数: 14
Prognosis for insulated gate bipolar transistor based on Gaussian Process Regression 基于高斯过程回归的绝缘栅双极晶体管预测
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621456
Sheng Hong, Zheng Zhou, Chuan Lv, Hongyi Guo
The failure issues of power insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) modules are mainly related to thermal and thermo-mechanical aging mechanism. This aging causes degradation of the device performance and faults which can lead to the failure bringing huge loss and catastrophic influence. To avoid those failures, the monitoring of the device operation and the detection of an aging state remain as a priority. This paper, at first, describes the failure mechanism of power cycling by analyzing of the structure of lead-based solder and joint failure due to solder fatigue. Secondly, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model supporting uncertainty representation is used to realize the prognosis for the junction temperature of the IGBT. Furthermore, the comparison of GPR prediction with the Neural Network algorithm has been achieved, and the dynamic model is introduced to improve the prediction accuracy for the IGBT health assessment. Meantime, GPR owns more simple computational complexity and less time consuming.
功率绝缘栅双极晶体管(IGBT)模块的失效问题主要与热老化和热机械老化机制有关。这种老化会导致设备性能的下降和故障的发生,从而导致设备失效,带来巨大的损失和灾难性的影响。为了避免这些故障,监控设备运行和检测老化状态仍然是优先考虑的问题。本文首先通过对铅基焊料结构和焊料疲劳失效的分析,阐述了功率循环失效机理。其次,采用支持不确定性表示的高斯过程回归(GPR)模型实现了对IGBT结温的预测;在此基础上,将探地雷达预测算法与神经网络算法进行了比较,并引入动态模型,提高了IGBT健康评估的预测精度。同时,探地雷达的计算复杂度更简单,耗时更少。
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引用次数: 8
Simulation on missile availability with consideration to storage process 考虑存储过程的导弹可用性仿真
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621443
Yaqiu Li, Guangyan Zhao, Yufeng Sun, Weiwei Hu
Aimed at the long-term store and one-time use characteristics of missiles, activities of failures, maintenance and support in storage process were simulated to evaluate the missile availability. Missile availability simulation model considering storage process was developed based on the idea of dynamic simulation model for discrete events. Relevant simulation logics were designed, and the task process and fault sampling simulation logics were described in detail. Finally, the comparison was made between two simulation model cases: one considered the storage process and the other did not. The result shows that the simulation module and algorithm are correct. The simulation method of considering the effects of storage on the missile availability are proposed, which can provide technical support for demonstration and evaluation of the missile's indexes of reliability, maintainability and supportability.
针对导弹长期贮存和一次性使用的特点,对导弹贮存过程中的故障、维修和保障活动进行了仿真,以评估导弹的可用性。基于离散事件动态仿真模型的思想,建立了考虑存储过程的导弹有效性仿真模型。设计了相应的仿真逻辑,详细描述了任务流程和故障采样仿真逻辑。最后,对考虑存储过程和不考虑存储过程的两种仿真模型进行了比较。结果表明,所设计的仿真模块和算法是正确的。提出了考虑存储对导弹可用性影响的仿真方法,为导弹可靠性、维修性和保障性指标的论证和评估提供了技术支持。
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引用次数: 0
A liquid contact indicator model for warranty abuse detection in portable electronics 便携式电子产品保修期滥用检测的液体接触指示器模型
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621435
Seunghyuk Choi, B. Youn, M. Pecht
Portable electronic makers have introduced a liquid damage indicator (LDI) tape in their products to detect warranty abuse caused by water damage. They refused to provide warranty service for a device that has triggered the LDI tape. However, a LDI tape exhibits inconsistencies in characteristics and that can lead to improper warranty denials. In this study, we conducted life tests to evaluate the performance of LDI tapes and developed an empirical model for liquid contact that describes the performance of the indicator for the benefit of the public. Then, we validated the model by a nonparametric survival analysis and temperature cycling tests with two smartphone sets.
便携式电子产品制造商在其产品中引入了液体损坏指示器(LDI)磁带,以检测因水损坏而导致的保修滥用。他们拒绝为触发LDI磁带的设备提供保修服务。但是,LDI磁带在特性上表现出不一致,这可能导致不适当的保修拒绝。在本研究中,我们进行了寿命测试来评估LDI胶带的性能,并开发了一个液体接触的经验模型,该模型描述了该指标的性能,以造福公众。然后,我们通过非参数生存分析和两套智能手机的温度循环测试来验证模型。
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引用次数: 0
Remaining useful life based maintenance decision making for deteriorating systems with both perfect and imperfect maintenance actions 基于剩余使用寿命的完善和不完善维护系统的维护决策
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621442
P. D. Van, A. Voisin, E. Levrat, B. Iung
This paper deals with a proactive condition-based maintenance (CBM) considering both perfect and imperfect maintenance actions for deteriorating systems. Perfect maintenance actions restore completely the system to the `as good as new' state. Their related cost are however often high. Imperfect preventive maintenance restores partially the system with reduced maintenance cost. Nevertheless, the restoration quality may depend not only on the allocated maintenance cost, the system age but also on the total number of imperfect maintenance actions executed since the last replacement time of the system. The first objective of the paper is to model imperfect maintenance actions. The second objective is to propose an adaptive maintenance policy which can help to select optimally maintenance actions (perfect or imperfect actions), if needed, at each inspection time using the remaining useful life (RUL) prognosis. To illustrate the use and the advantages of the proposed maintenance policy, different sensitivity studies are analyzed and discussed through a numerical example.
本文研究了一种基于状态的主动维修(CBM)方法,该方法考虑了退化系统的完美和不完美维修行为。完美的维护操作将系统完全恢复到“与新一样好”的状态。然而,它们的相关成本往往很高。不完善的预防性维护可以在降低维护成本的情况下部分恢复系统。然而,恢复质量可能不仅取决于分配的维护成本、系统年龄,还取决于自系统最后一次更换时间以来执行的不完善维护操作的总数。本文的第一个目标是对不完善的维护行为进行建模。第二个目标是提出一种适应性维护策略,如果需要,可以使用剩余使用寿命(RUL)预测在每次检查时帮助选择最佳维护操作(完美或不完美的操作)。为了说明所提出的维护策略的使用和优点,通过数值算例对不同的灵敏度研究进行了分析和讨论。
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引用次数: 9
Requirements for prognostic health management of passive components in advanced small modular reactors 先进小型模块化反应堆中无源元件的预测健康管理要求
Pub Date : 2013-06-24 DOI: 10.1109/ICPHM.2013.6621425
R. Meyer, J. Coble, P. Ramuhalli
Advanced small modular reactors (aSMRs), which are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts, may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors and near term small modular reactors (SMRs), which are based on integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) concepts. aSMRs are conceived for applications in remote locations and for diverse missions that include providing process or district heating, water desalination, and hydrogen production. Several challenges exist with respect to cost-effective operations and maintenance (O&M) of aSMRs, including the impacts of aggressive operating environments and modularity, and limiting these costs and staffing needs will be essential to ensuring the economic feasibility of aSMR deployment. In this regard, prognostic health management (PHM) systems have the potential to play a vital role in supporting the deployment of aSMR systems. This paper identifies requirements and technical gaps associated with implementation of PHM systems for passive aSMR components.
基于先进反应堆概念模块化的先进小型模块化反应堆(aSMRs)可能为传统轻水反应堆和基于整体压水反应堆(iPWR)概念的近期小型模块化反应堆(SMRs)提供长期替代方案。asmr是为偏远地区的应用和各种任务而设计的,包括提供过程或区域供热、海水淡化和氢气生产。aSMR的成本效益操作和维护(O&M)方面存在一些挑战,包括激进的操作环境和模块化的影响,限制这些成本和人员需求对于确保aSMR部署的经济可行性至关重要。在这方面,预后健康管理(PHM)系统有可能在支持aSMR系统的部署方面发挥至关重要的作用。本文确定了与无源aSMR组件的PHM系统实现相关的需求和技术差距。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
2013 IEEE Conference on Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)
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