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Comovements and Heterogeneity in the Euro Area Analyzed in a Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Model 非平稳动态因子模型分析欧元区的变动和异质性
Pub Date : 2007-05-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.922594
Sandra Eickmeier
This paper establishes stylized facts on comovements and heterogeneity of individual euro area countries' output and price developments in the past two decades. For this purpose, a non-stationary structural dynamic factor model is fitted to a large dataset of euro area macroeconomic variables. The main results are as follows. Both common factors and idiosyncratic components are important in explaining individual countries' output and price developments in the euro area and are also both very persistent. Idiosyncratic shocks and adjustments to these shocks are mainly responsible for cross-country heterogeneity. The asymmetric transmission of common shocks plays a minor role. Finally, there is no strong evidence that some common shocks lead to greater heterogeneity than others. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
本文建立了在过去二十年中个别欧元区国家的产出和价格发展的变动和异质性的风格化事实。为此,将非平稳结构动态因子模型拟合到欧元区宏观经济变量的大型数据集。主要结果如下:在解释欧元区单个国家的产出和价格发展时,共同因素和特殊因素都很重要,而且都非常持久。特殊冲击和对这些冲击的调整是造成跨国异质性的主要原因。普通冲击的不对称传递起了次要作用。最后,没有强有力的证据表明,一些常见的冲击会导致比其他冲击更大的异质性。版权所有©2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
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引用次数: 78
Human Capital Spillovers and Economic Performance in the Workplace in 2004: Some British Evidence 2004年人力资本溢出与职场经济表现:一些英国证据
Pub Date : 2007-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.986341
R. Metcalfe, P. Sloane
This paper considers the impact of education and training on both individual and co-worker pay and establishment performance using the matched employer-employee data in WERS 2004, the panel dataset 1998-2004 and the new Financial Performance Questionnaire. This enables us to assess the impact of workplace education and training using both subjective (managers’ assessments) and objective data on productivity, profits and establishment survival. We establish that workplace education and training can have positive impacts on establishment financial performance, survival and growth. In contrast to extant studies, it was found that the square and the interaction between own and co-workers years of training also have a positive and significant impact on hourly pay. We find evidence indicating that establishments with 60% or more of workers trained have a higher establishment performance and also have a powerful impact on the likelihood of establishment survival.
本文利用2004年的雇主-雇员数据、1998-2004年的面板数据和新的财务绩效问卷,考虑了教育和培训对个人和同事薪酬以及企业绩效的影响。这使我们能够使用主观(管理者的评估)和客观的生产力、利润和企业生存数据来评估工作场所教育和培训的影响。我们建立了职场教育和培训可以对企业的财务绩效、生存和发展产生积极的影响。与现有研究相比,我们发现square和自己与同事之间的互动对小时工资也有显著的正向影响。我们发现有证据表明,60%或更多员工受过培训的企业具有更高的企业绩效,并且对企业生存的可能性也有强大的影响。
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引用次数: 8
The Effect of EMU on Tourism 欧洲货币联盟对旅游业的影响
Pub Date : 2007-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00620.x
S. Gil‐Pareja, R. Llorca‐Vivero, J. Martínez-Serrano
This paper estimates the effect of the euro on intra‐EMU tourist flows by using a panel dataset of 20 OECD countries over the period 1995–2002. The results reveal that the euro has increased tourism, with an effect of around 6.5%. This is a noticeable impact given the early stage of the EMU analyzed. The robustness checks show that the evidence of a positive impact is quite widespread across EMU destination countries.
本文通过使用1995-2002年期间20个经合组织国家的面板数据集,估计了欧元对欧洲货币联盟内部旅游流量的影响。结果显示,欧元促进了旅游业的发展,其影响约为6.5%。考虑到欧洲货币联盟的早期阶段,这是一个明显的影响。稳健性检查表明,积极影响的证据在欧洲货币联盟目的地国家相当普遍。
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引用次数: 88
The Demand for Currency Versus Debitable Accounts: A Reconsideration 货币需求与借方账户:再考虑
Pub Date : 2007-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.987375
D. Bounie, A. François, N. Houy
Payment choice models based on transaction sizes (TS models) induce strong predictions about the use of payment instruments. Especially, all equal-sized transactions should be paid with the same payment instrument. Then, for each individual, one should observe strict domains of transaction for every payment instruments. Using micro-level payment data from a representative sample of the French population, we show that TS models are bad at replicating individual and aggregate payment patterns. First, we show that the predictions of TS models are not empirically validated on an individual level. Second, we develop and test three models to explain the observed aggregate payment patterns. The first two models are aggregate versions of TS models and the third one is an alternative model based on a payment decision rule depending on cash holding (CH model). We find that the third model gives predictions between 2 and 6 times more precise than the first two models with notably less demanding information on individuals.
基于交易规模的支付选择模型(TS模型)对支付工具的使用进行了强有力的预测。特别是,所有同等规模的交易都应使用相同的支付工具进行支付。然后,对于每个人,应该严格遵守每个支付工具的交易领域。使用来自法国人口代表性样本的微观支付数据,我们表明TS模型在复制个人和总体支付模式方面表现不佳。首先,我们表明TS模型的预测没有在个人层面上得到经验验证。其次,我们开发并测试了三个模型来解释观察到的总支付模式。前两个模型是TS模型的聚合版本,第三个模型是基于现金持有量支付决策规则的替代模型(CH模型)。我们发现,第三个模型给出的预测精度是前两个模型的2到6倍,而且对个体信息的要求明显更低。
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引用次数: 37
Wage Dispersion between and within Plants: Sweden 1985-2000 工厂之间和工厂内部的工资差异:瑞典1985-2000
Pub Date : 2007-04-01 DOI: 10.3386/W13021
Oskar Nordstrom Skans, Per-Anders Edin, B. Holmlund
The paper describes the Swedish wage distribution and how it correlates with worker mobility and plant-specific factors. It is well known that wage inequality has increased in Sweden since the mid-1980s. However, little evidence has so far been available as to whether this development reflects increased dispersion between plants, between individuals in the same plant, or both. We use a new linked employer-employee data set and discover that a trend rise in between-plant wage inequality account for the entire increase in wage dispersion. This pattern, which remains when we control for observable individual human capital characteristics, may reflect increased sorting of workers by skill levels and/or increased scope for rent sharing in local wage negotiations. Our discussion suggests that both factors may have become more important.
本文描述了瑞典的工资分配,以及它与工人流动性和工厂特定因素的关系。众所周知,自20世纪80年代中期以来,瑞典的工资不平等现象有所加剧。然而,到目前为止,几乎没有证据表明这种发展是否反映了植物之间、同一植物内个体之间或两者之间的分散增加。我们使用一个新的关联雇主-雇员数据集,发现工厂间工资不平等的上升趋势解释了工资差异的整体增加。当我们控制可观察到的个人人力资本特征时,这种模式仍然存在,可能反映了按技能水平对工人的分类增加和/或在地方工资谈判中租金分摊的范围增加。我们的讨论表明,这两个因素可能变得更加重要。
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引用次数: 110
A Theory of Inefficient Quotes: Empirical Evidence in Options Markets 无效报价理论:期权市场的经验证据
Pub Date : 2007-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.967679
Iñaki Rodríguez-Longarela, Silvia Mayoral
In an arbitrage-free economy with non-zero bid-ask spreads, the presence of payoffs, whose price is lower than the price of another payoff where the former dominates the latter, can not be discarded in general. However, their presence is a true market anomaly when the former price corresponds to trivial portfolios which involve buying or selling one unit of the basis assets. We refer to these prices as inefficient quotes and we characterize their absence by imposing certain conditions on the set of admissible Stochastic Discount Factors. A measure of overall quote inefficiency is also introduced. We report, in an empirical study, evidence that indicates that in options markets, both the frequency and the magnitude of these inefficiencies, are substantial. Also, we find puzzling patterns in the behavior of these inefficiencies.
在买卖价差非为零的无套利经济中,通常不能抛弃收益的存在,其价格低于前者占主导地位的另一种收益的价格。然而,当前者的价格对应于涉及买卖一个单位基础资产的微不足道的投资组合时,它们的存在是一个真正的市场异常。我们将这些价格称为无效报价,并通过对可接受的随机贴现因子集施加某些条件来描述它们的不存在。本文还介绍了一种衡量整体报价效率低下的方法。我们在一项实证研究中报告,有证据表明,在期权市场中,这些效率低下的频率和程度都是可观的。此外,我们在这些低效率的行为中发现了令人困惑的模式。
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引用次数: 0
Phoenix Rising: Legal Reforms and Changes in Valuations in Finland During the Economic Crisis 凤凰崛起:经济危机中芬兰的法律改革与估值变化
Pub Date : 2007-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.940665
Timo P. Korkeamaki, Y. Koskinen, T. Takalo
Finland experienced an extremely severe economic depression in the early 1990s.In the midst of this crisis, significant new legislation was passed that increased supervisory powers official market regulators and reformed bankruptcy procedures significantly decreasing the protection of creditors.We show that the introduction of these new laws resulted in positive abnormal stock returns.The new laws also lead to increases in firms'Tobin's q, especially for more levered firms.In contrast to previous studies, our results also suggest that public supervision of financial markets fosters rather than hampers financial market development. JEL Classification: G34, K22 Keywords: corporate governance, bankruptcy, financial supervision,shareholder protection, creditors' rights, corporate valuations, political economy
芬兰在20世纪90年代初经历了一次极其严重的经济萧条。在这场危机中,通过了重要的新立法,增加了监管权力和官方市场监管机构,改革了破产程序,大大减少了对债权人的保护。我们表明,这些新法律的引入导致了积极的异常股票收益。新法律还导致公司托宾q的增加,尤其是对杠杆率更高的公司。与以往的研究相比,我们的研究结果还表明,金融市场的公共监管促进而不是阻碍了金融市场的发展。关键词:公司治理,破产,金融监管,股东保护,债权人权利,公司估值,政治经济学
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引用次数: 10
Decomposition of the Realized Rate of Return on Investment in Fixed-Income Securities 固定收益证券投资已实现收益率的分解
Pub Date : 2007-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.984551
Rumiana Górska
Paper presents decomposition of the realized rate of return on investment in fixed-income securities in order to identify the income/risk sources. The decomposition is accomplished applying the concept of factorization and factor analysis on treasury bonds returns. Weekly data from the interbank market in Poland for the period 30 June – 6 October, 2004 (14 weeks) are used. In the single-factor model of decomposition, the source of risk is assumed to be the change of yield-to-maturity (YTM) of the considered bond. Within the multi-factor model, decomposition is carried out by means of both the factorization concept and factor analysis. Factor analysis is undertaken as a preliminary action aimed to identify common factors of market risk that affect the realized rate of return of the examined securities. The results of factor analysis are used in the multi-factor model of decomposition. This approach allows to reduce the number of market risk factors and to investigate their influence on realized rate of returns on different fixed-income securities.
本文提出了固定收益证券投资实现回报率的分解,以识别收益/风险来源。运用因子分解和因子分析的概念对国债收益率进行分解。本文采用了2004年6月30日至10月6日(14周)波兰银行间市场的每周数据。在单因素分解模型中,假设风险的来源是所考虑债券的到期收益率(YTM)的变化。在多因素模型中,通过因子分解概念和因子分析两种方法进行分解。因子分析是一项初步行动,旨在确定影响被审查证券实现回报率的市场风险的共同因素。因子分析结果用于多因素分解模型。这种方法可以减少市场风险因素的数量,并研究它们对不同固定收益证券实现回报率的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Recent Evolution of Pension Funds in the Netherlands: The Trend to Hybrid DB-DC Plans and Beyond 荷兰养老基金的最新演变:DB-DC混合计划及其他趋势
Pub Date : 2007-02-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.964428
Eduard H. M. Ponds, Bart van Riel
According to the classification in official statistics, Dutch pension plans have mainly preserved their DB character in recent years. The dominant reaction of pension funds to the fall in funding ratios at the beginning of this century has been a switch from final-pay schemes to average-wage schemes. This contrasts sharply with the experience in the United States and the United Kingdom, where the fall in pension funding ratios has accelerated the switch from DB to DC schemes. This paper scrutinizes the recent evolution of Dutch pension plans: how does the evolution of Dutch pension funds diverge from that of Anglo-Saxon pension funds, and how can we explain this divergence? Using an ALM framework, we argue that the current average-wage pension plans may be better viewed as hybrid DB-DC schemes, as indexation of all liabilities has been made solvency-contingent. Because these hybrid plans make use of two steering mechanisms to control solvency risk, Dutch pension funds display a high effectiveness in minimizing the risk of under-funding. The current hybrid schemes reflect a compromise between the various stakeholders. We examine the institutional basis for this compromise, and contrast this with the situation in Anglo-Saxon pension funds, where primarily employers are responsible for absorbing funding deficits, which gives them in turn more grip on pension plan design issues. In addition, we look at the role of unions, the strong preferences within the Dutch society for collective risk-sharing, and the underlying high level of social trust, as explanations for the divergence with the experience in the US and the UK…
根据官方统计的分类,荷兰的养老金计划近年来主要保留了其DB特征。本世纪初,养老基金对资金比率下降的主要反应是从最终薪酬计划转向平均工资计划。这与美国和英国的经验形成鲜明对比,在这两个国家,养老金基金比率的下降加速了从固定缴款计划向固定缴款计划的转变。本文考察了荷兰养老金计划的近期演变:荷兰养老金计划的演变与盎格鲁-撒克逊养老金计划的演变有何不同,我们如何解释这种差异?使用ALM框架,我们认为当前的平均工资养老金计划可能更好地被视为混合DB-DC计划,因为所有负债的指指性都已成为偿付能力的条件。由于这些混合计划利用两种指导机制来控制偿付能力风险,荷兰养老基金在将资金不足的风险降至最低方面表现出很高的有效性。目前的混合方案反映了各利益相关者之间的妥协。我们研究了这种妥协的制度基础,并将其与盎格鲁-撒克逊养老基金的情况进行了对比,在盎格鲁-撒克逊养老基金中,主要是雇主负责吸收资金赤字,这反过来又使他们对养老金计划设计问题有了更多的控制权。此外,我们还研究了工会的作用、荷兰社会对集体风险分担的强烈偏好以及潜在的高水平社会信任,以此来解释荷兰与美国和英国的经验差异。
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引用次数: 48
Earnings Inequality in Europe: Structure and Patterns of Inter-Temporal Changes 欧洲的收入不平等:结构和跨期变化模式
Pub Date : 2007-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.970220
Ioannis Cholezas, P. Tsakloglou
The paper provides an analysis of the level, the structure and the patterns of inter-temporal change in hourly earnings inequality in Europe. For the purposes of static inequality decomposition analysis, the data of the ECHP are employed. Considerable cross-country differences are observed across the EU regarding both the level and the structure of earnings inequality. In most countries, of the four factors examined (education, age, sex and sector of employment), education and, to a lesser extent, age are found to be most closely associated with inequality. For the purposes of inequality trend decomposition analysis national data sets for eight European countries are utilised. The results show that in most countries the main factor behind the observed changes in earnings inequality was changes in inequality “within groups” irrespective of the partitioning criterion used, while the effect of changes in group mean earnings was negligible. Finally, changes in the composition of wage and salary earners regarding the four aforementioned factors (education, age, sex and sector of employment) had a relatively large, but not uniform across countries, effect only in a few countries and mainly when the partitioning factor is education.
本文分析了欧洲小时收入不平等的水平、结构和跨时期变化模式。为了进行静态不平等分解分析,我们使用了ECHP的数据。在收入不平等的水平和结构方面,欧盟各国之间存在相当大的差异。在大多数国家,在审查的四个因素(教育、年龄、性别和就业部门)中,发现教育和年龄(在较小程度上)与不平等关系最密切。为了不平等趋势分解分析的目的,使用了八个欧洲国家的国家数据集。结果表明,在大多数国家,观察到的收入不平等变化背后的主要因素是“群体内”不平等的变化,而不管使用的划分标准如何,而群体平均收入变化的影响可以忽略不计。最后,关于上述四个因素(教育、年龄、性别和就业部门)的工资和薪金收入者构成的变化,仅在少数国家产生了相对较大的影响,但在各国并不统一,而且主要是在划分因素是教育的情况下。
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引用次数: 29
期刊
European Economics eJournal
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