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At the Centre of the Old World: Reinterpreting Venetian Economic History 在旧世界的中心:重新诠释威尼斯经济史
Pub Date : 2006-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.948388
Paola Lanaro
This paper aims to provide a general overview on the recent works in the economic history of Venice. Instead of a �pessimistic� interpretation, focused on the lost in the maritime position and on the rigidity of the corporative institution, this paper breaks down on the fundamental changes in the economic framework of the whole Republic of Venice, particularly in its mainland: investment in the agrarian sector, development of new manufactures, foreign market shift from Western to Eastern Europe. Published in the volume: At the Centre of the Old World: Trade and Manufacturing in Venice and the Venetian Mainland (1400-1800), edited by P. Lanaro, Toronto, Centre for Reformation and Renaissance Studies, 2006.
本文的目的是对威尼斯经济史上最近的作品提供一个总的概述。本文没有悲观地解释威尼斯在海上地位的丧失和企业制度的僵化,而是分析了整个威尼斯共和国经济框架的根本变化,特别是在其大陆:农业部门的投资、新制造业的发展、国外市场从西欧向东欧的转移。出版于卷:在旧世界的中心:贸易和制造业在威尼斯和威尼斯大陆(1400-1800),编辑P.拉纳罗,多伦多,中心的改革和文艺复兴研究,2006年。
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引用次数: 3
The Social Assimilation of Immigrants 移民的社会同化
Pub Date : 2006-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.964230
D. Depalo, R. Faini, A. Venturini
The aim of this paper on the social assimilation of immigrants is to take a close look at migrants' social integration into the host country. The authors rely on the European Community Household panel (ECHP), which devotes a full module to the role and relevance of social relations for both migrants and natives. An innovative feature of this analysis is that it relies on migrants perceptions about their integration rather than - as is typically the case in most opinion surveys - on natives attitudes toward migrants. The main results of the paper can be summarized as follows. First, migrants - particularly from non-EU origins - are at a disadvantage in the fields of social relations. Even after controlling for their individual characteristics, such as age, education, family size, and employment status, they tend to socialize less than natives. Second, migrants tend to converge, albeit quite slowly, to the standard of natives. This finding highlights the risks of short term migration, where migrants tend to be constantly marginalized. Third, education has a significant impact on the type of social activities that individuals undertake. More educated people tend to relate somewhat less with their close neighborhood, but quite intensively with the broader community. The implication for policy makers concerned about the creation of ethnic enclaves is to promote education among immigrants' community.
这篇关于移民社会同化的论文的目的是仔细研究移民融入东道国的社会融合。作者依赖于欧洲共同体家庭小组(ECHP),该小组用了一个完整的模块来研究移民和本地人的社会关系的作用和相关性。这种分析的一个创新之处在于,它依赖于移民对自己融入社会的看法,而不是像大多数民意调查那样,依赖于当地人对移民的态度。本文的主要研究结果可以总结如下。首先,移民——尤其是来自非欧盟国家的移民——在社会关系领域处于不利地位。即使在控制了年龄、教育程度、家庭规模和就业状况等个人特征之后,他们的社交活动也往往比本地人少。第二,移民倾向于向本地人的标准靠拢,尽管速度很慢。这一发现凸显了短期移民的风险,移民往往不断被边缘化。第三,教育对个人从事的社会活动的类型有重大影响。受教育程度较高的人往往与他们的近邻联系较少,但与更广泛的社区联系相当密切。对政策制定者来说,关注种族飞地形成的含义是促进移民社区的教育。
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引用次数: 32
Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland 冰岛稳定通胀
Pub Date : 2006-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451865226.001.A001
Keiko Honjo, B. Hunt
This paper provides some empirical estimates on how tightly is it feasible to control inflation in a very small open economy such as Iceland. Estimated macroeconomic models of Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States are used to derive efficient monetary policy frontiers that trace out the locus of the lowest combinations of inflation and output variability that are achievable under a range of alternative monetary policy rules. These frontiers illustrate that inflation stabilization is more challenging in Iceland than in other industrial countries primarily because of the relative magnitudes of the economic shocks.
本文提供了一些经验估计,说明在冰岛这样一个非常小的开放经济体中,控制通胀的可行性有多强。本文利用加拿大、冰岛、新西兰、英国和美国的估计宏观经济模型,推导出有效的货币政策边界,从而找出在一系列可供选择的货币政策规则下可实现的通货膨胀和产出可变性最低组合的轨迹。这些前沿表明,冰岛的通货膨胀稳定比其他工业国家更具挑战性,主要是因为经济冲击的相对规模。
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引用次数: 10
What is Global Excess Liquidity, and Does it Matter? 什么是全球流动性过剩,它重要吗?
Pub Date : 2006-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.942737
Rasmus Rueffer, Livio Stracca
This paper endeavours to provide a comprehensive analysis of the nature and the possible importance of “global excess liquidity†, a concept which has attracted considerable attention in recent years. The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, we present some conceptual discussion on the meaning of excess liquidity in countries with developed financial markets, where the monetary base plays only a relatively minor quantitative role. Moreover, we analyse the theoretical channels through which shocks to excess liquidity may be transmitted across borders. The co-movement between several measures of excess liquidity across a relatively large number of countries is significant, but the evidence of cross-country spill-over of excess liquidity on excess liquidity and nominal spending abroad is not very strong. Last, we estimate an SVAR model for an aggregate of the major industrialised countries and analyse the transmission of shocks to global excess liquidity to a number of domestic variables in the world’s two largest economies (the US and the euro area). Our overall conclusion is that global excess liquidity appears to be a useful measure of the monetary policy stance at the level of the world economy. Moreover, there is some evidence that global excess liquidity shocks have some spill-over on output, the price level and asset prices in the euro area, while the US appears to be more insulated from global shocks
本文试图对近年来引起广泛关注的概念€œglobal过剩流动性€的性质及其可能的重要性进行全面分析。本文的贡献有三个方面。首先,我们对金融市场发达国家中流动性过剩的含义进行了一些概念性讨论,在这些国家中,货币基础只起着相对较小的定量作用。此外,我们还分析了对流动性过剩的冲击可能跨境传递的理论渠道。在相对较多的国家中,几种过剩流动性指标之间的协同运动是显著的,但过剩流动性对过剩流动性和海外名义支出的跨国溢出效应的证据并不很强。最后,我们估计了主要工业化国家的SVAR模型,并分析了全球流动性过剩冲击对世界上两个最大经济体(美国和欧元区)的一些国内变量的传导。我们的总体结论是,全球流动性过剩似乎是衡量世界经济层面货币政策立场的一个有用指标。此外,有一些证据表明,全球流动性过剩冲击对欧元区的产出、价格水平和资产价格有一定的溢出效应,而美国似乎更不受全球冲击的影响
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引用次数: 162
The Formation of Firms and the Prior Experience of New Entrepreneurship 企业的形成与新企业家精神的经验
Pub Date : 2006-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.945322
A. Melnik, E. Colombatto
We use a simple model to analyze the founding stage of new firms. Our goal is to characterize the directional causality between the expected rewards from entrepreneurship and the length of prior labor market experience that entrepreneurs possess. We test predictions about the timing of the formation of new firms on a sample of Italian entrepreneurs who founded new firms in the period 1992-2004. We obtain three main results. First, the timing of the foundation of new firms is determined primarily by the expectation of higher income and not so much by the perception of risk. Second, earlier experience of entrepreneurs in full time employment has a positive impact on the size of newly founded firms. Third, when we separate founders who work alone from founders who work with family partners, we find that the latter establish and control larger firms.
我们用一个简单的模型来分析新公司的创立阶段。我们的目标是描述创业预期回报与企业家拥有的先前劳动力市场经验长度之间的定向因果关系。我们以1992-2004年间创立新公司的意大利企业家为样本,对新公司成立时间的预测进行了检验。我们得到三个主要结果。首先,新公司成立的时机主要取决于对更高收入的预期,而不是对风险的感知。第二,全职企业家的早期经验对新成立公司的规模有积极影响。第三,当我们把单独工作的创始人和与家族合伙人一起工作的创始人分开时,我们发现后者建立并控制着更大的公司。
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引用次数: 3
Migration and Bilateral Trade Flows - Evidence from Italy 移民和双边贸易流动——来自意大利的证据
Pub Date : 2006-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.958272
M. Murat, B. Pistoresi
A significant number of empirical studies, focusing on different countries, have found a positive link between immigration and trade. This paper studies the relationship between emigration, immigration and trade using Italian data. The sample regards 51 foreign trading partners and spans from 1990 to 2005. The results suggest that: networks of Italian emigrants in foreign countries boost trade and this pro-trade effect does not depend on institutional and cultural dissimilarities of the trading partners; immigrants reduce imports (substitution effect); finally, there are no preference effects of emigrants on exports.
大量针对不同国家的实证研究发现,移民与贸易之间存在积极联系。本文利用意大利的数据研究了移民、移民与贸易之间的关系。样本涉及51个对外贸易伙伴,时间跨度为1990年至2005年。结果表明:意大利移民在国外的网络促进了贸易,这种促进贸易的效应不依赖于贸易伙伴的制度和文化差异;移民减少进口(替代效应);最后,不存在移民对出口的偏好效应。
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引用次数: 0
Financial Integration of New EU Member States 欧盟新成员国的金融一体化
Pub Date : 2006-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.891023
Lorenzo Cappiello, Arjan Kadareja, Bruno Gerard, S. Manganelli
This study assesses the degree of financial integration for a selected number of new EU member states between themselves and with the euro zone. Within the framework of a factor model for market returns, we measure integration as the amount of variance explained by the common factor relative to the local components. We show that this measure of integration coincides with return correlation. Correlations are proxied by comovements, estimated via a regression quantile-based methodology. We find that the largest new member states, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, exhibit strong comovements both between themselves and with the euro area. As for smaller countries, only Estonia and to a less extent Cyprus show increased integration both with the euro zone and the block of large economies. In the bond markets, we document an increase in integration only for the Czech Republic versus Germany and Poland. JEL Classification: C32, F30, G12
本研究评估了选定的一些欧盟新成员国之间以及与欧元区之间的金融一体化程度。在市场回报的因子模型框架内,我们衡量整合为由共同因子相对于本地成分解释的方差量。我们表明,这种整合措施与回报相关性是一致的。相关性由运动来表示,通过基于回归分位数的方法来估计。我们发现,最大的新成员国——捷克共和国、匈牙利和波兰——在它们之间以及与欧元区之间都表现出了强劲的配合。至于较小的国家,只有爱沙尼亚和塞浦路斯在较小程度上显示出与欧元区和大型经济体集团的一体化程度有所提高。在债券市场,我们记录到只有捷克共和国与德国和波兰相比一体化程度有所提高。JEL分类:C32, F30, G12
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引用次数: 115
The Most and the Least Favoured Nations: Norway's Trade Policy in Perspective 最惠国与最不惠国:透视挪威的贸易政策
Pub Date : 2006-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00843.x
A. Melchior
This article reviews some recent developments in Norway's trade policy, in the light of the WTO's Trade Policy Review of Norway, 2004. A main focus is on the relationship between MFN trade policy and Norway's numerous preferential trade arrangements. In spite of a growing number of free trade agreements the paper suggests that Norway's trade regime has not become more discriminatory. The reason is that cuts in MFN tariffs as well as improvements in GSP have eroded preference margins in manufacturing faster than the coverage of free trade agreements has expanded. As a result of liberalisation, the trade regime for manufacturing has become less discriminatory, not more. While Norway is on the whole a liberal-minded supporter of the world trade system, it has twice in recent history reacted with protectionism. Around 1980, a restrictive quota regime for clothing was implemented. This has later been dismantled, contributing to sharply increased imports from developing countries. For agriculture, Norway has currently high protection, and tariff preferences are limited. It is likely that agricultural protection will be gradually reduced due to the WTO, as well as through free trade agreements and improvements in GSP.
本文根据世贸组织2004年对挪威的贸易政策审查,回顾了挪威贸易政策的一些最新发展。一个主要重点是最惠国贸易政策与挪威众多优惠贸易安排之间的关系。尽管自由贸易协定的数量越来越多,但这篇论文表明,挪威的贸易体制并没有变得更具歧视性。原因是最惠国关税的削减以及普惠制的改善侵蚀了制造业的优惠幅度,其速度快于自由贸易协定覆盖范围的扩大。自由化的结果是,制造业贸易体制的歧视性减少了,而不是增加了。虽然挪威总体上是世界贸易体系的自由主义支持者,但在近代史上,它曾两次以保护主义作为回应。1980年前后,实施了服装限制性配额制度。这一限制后来被取消,导致从发展中国家的进口急剧增加。在农业方面,挪威目前实行高度保护,关税优惠有限。由于世贸组织的加入,以及自由贸易协定和普惠制的改善,农业保护很可能会逐渐减少。
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引用次数: 4
Fundamental Inflation Uncertainty 基本通胀不确定性
Pub Date : 2006-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.965444
Charlotta Groth, Jarkko P. Jääskelä, Paolo Surico
We develop a method of quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the estimates of the fundamental inflation implied by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The uncertainty is represented as a band around the fundamental inflation, and encompasses the sampling uncertainty of both the estimates of the structural parameters and the estimates of the VAR used to form a projection of real marginal costs. An empirical application on UK and US data confirms that fundamental inflation tracks actual inflation reasonably well in both countries. For the United Kingdom the confidence band is sufficiently narrow, relative to the sample variance of inflation, to identify a number of periods where the predictions of the NKPC do not fully capture movements in actual inflation. In contrast, considerable uncertainty surrounds the estimates of fundamental inflation for the United States.
我们开发了一种量化新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线(NKPC)所隐含的基本通货膨胀估计的不确定性的方法。不确定性表示为基本通货膨胀周围的一个波段,包括结构参数估计和用于形成实际边际成本预测的VAR估计的抽样不确定性。对英国和美国数据的实证应用证实,在这两个国家,基本通胀与实际通胀相当吻合。对于英国来说,相对于通货膨胀的样本方差,置信区间足够窄,可以确定一些时期,其中NKPC的预测不能完全反映实际通货膨胀的变动。相比之下,对美国基本通货膨胀的估计存在相当大的不确定性。
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引用次数: 1
Cross-Border Labour Mobility within an Enlarged EU 扩大后的欧盟内部的跨境劳动力流动
Pub Date : 2006-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.923371
Frigyes Heinz, Melanie E. Ward-Warmedinger
This paper examines the potential for increased cross-border labour mobility within the EU-25 and considers the costs and benefits of any increase in labour mobility to both sending and receiving countries in the medium to long run. Evidence from previous EU enlargement experiences, academic studies, the existence of barriers to mobility within the EU and the economic determinants of migration all indicate a moderate potential for increased migrant flows. The magnitude of cross-border labour flow in the medium to long run will most likely be largely a function of the demand for migrants and the speed at which the EU-8 catches up economically with the EU-15. If broad-based economic growth and social development continues in the EU-8, labour migration will most likely decrease. In addition, faster population ageing in the EU-8 tends towards dampening migration flow from the new Member States in the medium term. In terms of costs and benefits, for the EU-8 countries labour migration, especially in the short run, may present a number of challenges. Emigration may tend to weigh disproportionally on the pool of young and educated workers, aggravating labour market bottlenecks in a number of EU-8 countries. For the EU-25 as a whole, cross-border labour mobility is likely to offer a number of advantages, by allowing a more efficient matching of workers‘ skills with job vacancies and facilitating the general upskilling of European workforces. The current restrictions on labour mobility from the EU-8 countries to the other EU member countries stand in contrast with one of the central principles of the EU – the free movement of labour. Furthermore, these restrictions may decrease the efficient use of labour resources in the face of demographic change and globalisation and hamper an important adjustment mechanism within EMU. Delaying the removal of these barriers may be costly for the EU-25 at a time when leaders are concerned about Europe‘s international competitiveness and may increase illegal work in a number of countries. Finally, it would not be beneficial for Europe to loose a significant part of the most agile and talented individuals from the new Member States to more traditional migration centres such as the US and Canada.
本文考察了欧盟25国内部跨境劳动力流动性增加的潜力,并考虑了劳动力流动性增加对输出国和接受国中长期的成本和收益。来自以往欧盟扩大经验、学术研究、欧盟内部流动障碍的存在以及移民的经济决定因素的证据都表明,移民流动有适度增加的潜力。中长期来看,跨境劳动力流动的规模很可能在很大程度上取决于对移民的需求,以及欧盟8国在经济上追赶欧盟15国的速度。如果欧盟八国的基础广泛的经济增长和社会发展继续下去,劳动力迁移很可能会减少。此外,欧盟8国人口老龄化速度加快,在中期内往往会抑制来自新会员国的移民流动。就成本和收益而言,对于欧盟8国来说,劳动力迁移,特别是在短期内,可能会带来许多挑战。移民可能会对年轻和受过教育的工人造成不成比例的影响,加剧了许多欧盟8国的劳动力市场瓶颈。对于欧盟25国整体而言,跨境劳动力流动可能会带来许多优势,因为它允许工人的技能与职位空缺更有效地匹配,并促进欧洲劳动力的总体技能提升。目前欧盟8国对劳动力向其他欧盟成员国流动的限制,与欧盟的核心原则之一——劳动力自由流动——背道而驰。此外,面对人口变化和全球化,这些限制可能会降低劳动力资源的有效利用,并阻碍欧洲货币联盟内部的重要调整机制。在各国领导人担心欧洲的国际竞争力之际,推迟消除这些障碍可能会让欧盟25国付出高昂代价,并可能增加一些国家的非法工作。最后,将大部分最灵活、最有才华的人才从新成员国流失到美国和加拿大等更传统的移民中心,对欧洲来说是没有好处的。
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引用次数: 113
期刊
European Economics eJournal
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